Darren Oliver -- Drilling Down in the Data
by Adam J. Morris on Dec 21, 2009 12:18 PM CST
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PrintOkay, Darren Oliver apparently is going to be a Ranger in 2010 (and likely 2011). As I've said before, I don't think this is a real good signing, primarily because I think there are more glaring needs that should be addressed with the limited funds available.
Oliver has pitched out of the bullpen for Anaheim the past three years, and has been relatively consistent, posting ERAs in 2007-2009 of 3.78, 2.88, and 2.81, and FIPs of 3.78, 3.53., and 3.32. He struck out 8 batters per 9 last year, against 2.71 walks per 9. The year before it was 6 Ks to 2 BBs, and in 2007 it was 7.13 to 2.22.
Oliver doesn't throw hard anymore...his fastball the past three years, per Fangraphs, is at around 89 mph, and his slider is 78 mph. Fangraphs appears confused in previous years as to whether he threw a curve or a slider, listing percentages for each but at about the same velocity. Last year, they just show him throwing a slider, with no curve, and he appears to basically be a two pitch pitcher right now -- 89 mph fastball, 78 mph breaking ball. Eddie Guardado, as a point of reference, was at 86 mph FB/78 mph breaking ball the past couple of years.
One of the arguments I've made about this signing is that the Rangers don't need another lefty reliever, particularly a middle reliever. The counter to that has been, well, Oliver has been more effective against righties than lefties, so he shouldn't be thought of the same way as a lefty reliever.
There's some truth to Oliver being more successful against righties the past three years, but it is a weird situation. Lefties had a better OPS against Oliver in 2007 and 2009, and righties had a better OPS (though only slightly better) in 2008. However, drilling down the data reveals the splits to be unusual in certain ways.
Last year, for example, in 123 plate appearances against lefties, Oliver struck out 37 batters and walked just 4, a K/BB ratio better than 9. In 170 plate appearances against righties, Oliver struck out 28 batters and walked 18, a K/BB ratio of around 1.5. Lefties, however, had a .355 BABIP against Oliver last year, versus a .250 BABIP against righthanders.
In 2008, Oliver had a K/BB ratio of 4.17 against lefties, versus a 2.30 ratio against righthanders, without a huge split in BABIPs. In 2007, Oliver had a K/BB ratio of around 2.5 against lefties versus a little over 2.0 for righties, but again, with a big BABIP split...a .338 BABIP against lefties, a .247 BABIP against righties.
This large spread in BABIP, along with the fact that Oliver allowed homers at a slightly higher rate against lefties (8 against lefties over the three years, 7 against righties, while facing righties about 40% more often), explains why lefthanders have produced a better slash line against Oliver the past three years.
Now, the relevant question for the Rangers is, is Oliver's success against righties, which is driven by the large BABIP splits, sustainable? Is this something that is peculiar to Oliver, and inherently generates better splits? Or is this just an aberration?
I don't know. I'm not in a position to answer that question. I can say that, looking at Fangraphs, Oliver's line drive percentage has been well below average the past three years, which suggests that opponent's aren't making good contact against him. At the same time, though, one would normally believe that if he was truly as successful against righthanders than against lefties, then it would show up in his K and BB rates.
So I'm not confident that Oliver is someone who is going to have reverse splits...he seems like someone who, most likely, is going to have more success against lefties than against righties in 2010. Which, if C.J. Wilson and Ben Snyder or Clay Rapada is also out in the pen, means that half your non-closing relievers are guys you'd rather have face lefthanders than righthanders.
Another odd thing in Oliver's splits is his home/road performance over the past few years. In all three years, Oliver allowed a lower slash line at home than on the road, and in 2007 and 2008, it was a significant difference.
In 2009, Oliver had a better ERA on the road than at home (2.35 v. 3.12). However, he had a 5.00 K/BB ratio at home, versus 1.79 on the road. His K/BB ratios weren't as dramatic in the previous two years -- and in 2008, he had a better ratio on the road than at home -- but he did have huge BABIP splits, allowing a BABIP at home in the .220s in 2007 and 2008, and well over .300 on the road in those years.
Another outlier on Oliver's chart is his HR/FB ratio...in the past three years, Oliver has allowed home runs on around 6.5% of the flyballs he's allowed. The normal rate is 10%, and there's a school of thought that suggests that that normalizes over time...if we look at Oliver's xFIP, which adjusts FIP to normalize home run rate, Oliver is sitting at around 4.00 the past three years.
For what it is worth, CHONE thinks Oliver has another solid year in him, projecting a 3.48 ERA in 2010 with a 51/21 K/BB ratio in 56 innings. Bill James projects a 3.92 ERA (and 4.12 FIP).
So Oliver is someone who looks like he should have success in 2010. I'm not as convinced as some are that he's going to be equally effective against righties rather than lefties, and I'm afraid not spotting him appropriately in terms of platoon advantages will impact his numbers. But he's someone who should be able to be a contributor out of the pen next year.
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I think it's a weird signing, too
But we should have a stacked bullpen next year with LOTS of depth with RH and LH
In a vacuum this deal makes sense
Adding Oliver makes this team better. His BABIP has been very consistent the last three years (.289, .286, .284) and his FIPs have been very consistent (3.78, 3.53, 3.32). I don’t think there is any doubt that Oliver is an improvement over say Rapada, Mathis, or Strop.
I think everyone needs to just wait and see how Daniels plans on addressing the DH situation. If there is a trade lined up, or a FA signing, then this signing Oliver makes sense. Ultimately, we do not know what kind of budget Daniels is working with. Early in the off-season, we heard reports that they may have over $10 million, and lately we have heard that number might be closer to 3-5. But ultimately, we don’t know. Only Daniels and company know. I doubt Daniels would decide to just give up on signing a DH and allocate all of those resources towards Oliver.
In the end, we got a well above-average reliever at fair market value. We might as well give Daniels the benefit of doubt until we hear how he plans on addressing the DH spot.
by Stephen Rushin on Dec 21, 2009 12:36 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
spot on
"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan
by Dirk Diggler on Dec 21, 2009 12:59 PM CST up reply actions
what has our net change been?
If I’m not mistaken, the net for the Millwood for Harden, Ray and Snyder swap was a savings of about $1M this year. This signing would then make that a $2.5M outlay, with somewhere between 2.5M and 5M left to work with.
That is all very speculative, of course.
What is this, Horseville? Because I'm surrounded by naysayers.
Well I can't find any source that definitively says how much the Rangers can spend...
The numbers seem to range from $3-10+ million. The Rangers (allegedly) were offering $3 million to Oliver when the Lowell trade was still pending. Hence, they probably have at least $6 million to spend. Since they were discussing the addition of another catcher and a utility infielder along with Lowell/Oliver, I’d be willing to bet that they have more than $6 million to spend. (Maybe 8 or 9?)
by Stephen Rushin on Dec 21, 2009 1:38 PM CST up reply actions
So Adam
if I’m understanding this correctly your dislike for this signing has nothing to do with his performance but rather with the money that he’ll be making. Correct?
People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring. ~Rogers Hornsby
I think the issue is
when you have limited resources, you need to do a lot with what you have, and not overpay for mediocrity.
"I don't condone steroids or any other type of growth hormones or anything else, but I could care less, and, for the most part, I don't think the fans give a (bleep). The people that care about it are the people that probably don't like baseball," - Jim Leyland
Nice work delving into the splits
I like the deal. I think oliver will most likely be very solid and quite possibly our 2nd or 3rd best reliever. Behind FF and possibly O’Day if CJ is going to the rotation or traded. I expect some regression from O’Day but I pray to God to make me as wrong as possible.
"He do what he do" - Ron Washington
by dustinvandeman on Dec 21, 2009 12:38 PM CST reply actions
I have to believe
that this means CJ is either on the block or they are planning on him being in the rotation. Nothing else makes sense. At this point I wouldn’t be surprised to see Wilson or another of the starter candidates (whose place Wilson then takes in the rotation) packaged in a trade.
The other thought I have is that this meshes with the Lowell trade attempt as getting “veterranness” but also trying to limit the variance of a team packed with young wildcards.
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even if that is the case
then you still might not like the direction the rangers are taking. if they are sure that wilson will be starting here, then that means that someone good might be blocked. I guess that might be prospect bias assuming that someone like Holland, Feliz, or Harrison deserves a starter spot over Wilson but then you wonder why the club would feel so confident about Wilson as a starter when he’s been relieving for a while now.
I didn't say I was a fan of that kind of plan
just that I believe that’s what might be going down. I don’t really like the Wilson to the rotation movement. He thinks too damn much.
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Not when thinking means you get in your own way
His thinking means throwing too many pitches instead of going with his best stuff. He’s too smart for his own good sometimes. I think this is part of Chris Davis’ problem as well.
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So it was Davis' above-average
intelligence that made him swing at every pitch thrown his direction? I’m rooting for the guy, but c’mon. You don’t strike out on 3 pitches every at bat because you’re “too smart for your own good.”
I agree with you on CJ though…
Chris Davis's problem
One of the things Billy Beane talked about in Moneyball was the difference between him and Lenny Dykstra, and how he had a tendency to think too much and obsess and that got him in trouble at the plate, whereas Lenny just went up there and hit.
I think that there are a lot of folks who believe that Chris Davis’s problem stems from thinking too much and needing to get out of his own head. Sort of like a closer has to be able to forget about blowing a lead his last time out, and go out there and just pitch.
by Adam J. Morris on Dec 21, 2009 1:28 PM CST up reply actions
Rudy
said on more than one occasion that it was more mental than anything
People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring. ~Rogers Hornsby
I think the Cowboys get Suisham.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
"Business as usual." - Tom Hicks on the Ranger off-season 11/19/09
I thought I read that Suisham was 18 for 21
but was cut because he missed crucial FGs v Dallas & Nawlins.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
"Business as usual." - Tom Hicks on the Ranger off-season 11/19/09
When I think of a hitter
who is “thinking too much” I think of guys that are guessing at pitches, trying to hard to get into “hitter’s counts”, or trying to draw a walk when a situation demands a more aggressive approach. Whiffing at 3 consecutive pitches isn’t a thinking man’s mistake. In my view, Crush’s problem was a lack of confidence. The dude looked like a dog with his tail tucked between his legs, waiting to get swatted on the nose.
You took my wording too broadly.
Wilson is too smart for his own good. Davis just plain thinks too much.
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Let me add
that at times last year he seemed to be getting beyond that. If he is more willing to stick to a plan and not get too fancy or fine with things, he may very well be a good starter.
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I love the idea
will we love the results? That’s of course yet to be determined. But I do believe putting your talent out there in droves is the best scenario…
I think with a rotation, at some point next year, of Harden, Wilson, Feldman, Holland and Feliz, those are (in my opinion) our top 5 arms in terms of talent (overall – speed/movement of the fastball; quality of breaking pitch; effectiveness of a changeup). And I personally think that’s a killer rotation. The problem of course is what happens when outside of Feldman, the other 4 average 5.5 innings per start. Which is where maybe a deep bullpen comes in handy. Or Tommy Hunter is in the rotation. The beauty is you still have Hunter, Harrison, McCarthy, Nippert, etc. as options.
With those 5 starting, I’d have Francisco, Ray, Oliver, O’Day, one of Rapada/Snyder, and 2 of Mathis/Moscoso/Hunter/Harrison/McCarthy/Nippert. You could even have an 8 man bullpen if an extra bench spot wasn’t a necessity, depending on how the catching/DH situation plays out.
"Hang-Dai, Wu...Hang-Fu$&ing-Dai"
by Walter Sobchak on Dec 21, 2009 1:11 PM CST up reply actions
Great analysis...
Awesome stuff. I won’t re-hash, but, I’m still shocked so few are excited about this.
If Oliver were only $1 million, would that make more people happy? If our budget is $59.750 million or $57.750 million?
Yeah, we have some prospects who may (or may not) emerge. But we can also trade them for a better bat down the line. Right now? No more Eddie G, thank you Lord!
My irrational hatred for Darren Oliver says
signing Darren Oliver at whatever price will not make me happy. I will also never approve of signing Phil Nevin, Brad Wilkerson, Ben Broussard, Matt Kata, Adam Eaton, Kip Wells, or Pedro Astacio among others….
CJ just narrowly missed getting his name added to that list by his redeeming performance last year, but I’d still trade him for a good bat in a heartbeat.
I almost forgot
no John Burkett, Ismael Valdez, Hideki Irabu, or Esteban Loiaza.
Take John Burkett on that list
John Burkett is a hero he is the only Rangers pitcher to ever win a playoff game. His name will live in Rangers lore forever!
2009 Texas Rangers: Why The Hell Not Us?--ghtd36 on May 13, 2009
In the interest of quicker games Ron should just tell the ump he's pulling the Feliz card and the ump should rule the inning over.--Sherman McCoy on Sept. 4, 2009
Sorry but my irrational hatred would like to point out
that accomplishment has been dimmed by the crappy seasons in 98 and 99. No playoff victories there.
And as a side note I can’t wait until it’s not longer the case that Burkett is the only Ranger to have a playoff victory. That’s just incredibly depressing.
He will move into the catagory of
John Burkett was the first Ranger pitcher to win a playoff game…
2009 Texas Rangers: Why The Hell Not Us?--ghtd36 on May 13, 2009
In the interest of quicker games Ron should just tell the ump he's pulling the Feliz card and the ump should rule the inning over.--Sherman McCoy on Sept. 4, 2009
On the other hand
I’d still consider Mike Venafro or Ron Mahay for a spot as a lefty reliever regardless of how their past performance has been since they’ve left the Rangers….
I'm not a big fan of this deal, but this is a typical JD offseason signing
In 07, it was Gagne. In 08, it was Guardado.for a couple million. Then last year, it was a grab bag of guys including Turnbow and Guardado. Looking at this signing without the team’s financial concerns being part of the picture, I can’t see any reason to not like adding an established veteran RP to this bullpen at a reasonable price.
Since that isn’t the case, we’ll just have to see what happens with the team’s other moves to know if this hinders them from addressing other needs, but given how this front office works, I think its unfair to not give them the benefit of the doubt that they know how much money they have and what is the best use of that money.
What I’m wondering about now is what this means with CJ. I can’t imagine the team is really looking to trade him, so bringing in Oliver seems like the team is serious about CJ being tried out in the rotation.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
If everyone
would throw the budget out the window since we don’t know the exact numbers anyways and take the player for what he is then I don’t see how it’s a bad signing. it allows flexibility and creates more depth
People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring. ~Rogers Hornsby
Adam, though, isn't saying it's a "bad" signing,
just that it should not be a priority for the team at this time. Unless this deal somehow leads to more pressing needs being addressed it’s kind of a head scratcher.
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I probably should have
re-worded that. I think if CJ ends up in the rotation, which i personally think isn’t going to happen, then going with snyder, rapada and maybe harrison as your LH options is asking for trouble. I think 3.5 mill is too much but he’s a good pitcher and adds depth and flexibility
People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring. ~Rogers Hornsby
I really want to spend a lot of time digesting this, but I don't have time to spend at this moment.
So, I’m really shocked at how this has become such a big discussion topic. I think it all of the discussion has to do with budget constraints. On the surface, my thoughts are these:
(1) Getting Oliver is a solid signing for a team looking to contend. On the scale of RP signings, it’s nowhere near as iffy as what the Royals did last offseason, and it isn’t as awesome as what the Royals did to get Soria. It’s solid. It’s what a team that wants to contend does.
(2) It appears to me that JD had $3M-ish to work with. He targeted Lowell. That fell through, meaning it appears to me that JD feels he can’t upgrade the DH/utility IF for $3M and is instead looking to bolster pitching, using the principle that if you can’t fix the offense then make sure the pitching is as good as you can afford it to be.
(3) I think it would be great to see the Rangers trade for Cantu or some other pretty good DH. I don’t think this move means that is likely to happen. I think it simply means JD sees the $3M spent on bolstering the bullpen as a better return on investment than the FA DH options now available.
(4) Why didn’t JD pursue Johnson and other DH’s? We have no idea whether any of those players indicated they would play in Texas. That’s one factor that hasn’t been considered in all of the discussion I have read, except by dirkatron when I raised the question.
(5) If this offseason is any indication, we’ll probably be able to ask JD sometime before springtraining via a chat session. Line up your questions now! If you want to get through in a DMN chat, just use the screen name “Josey Wales”.
(6) I can’t believe how many posts have been spawned by this particular signing. In a month, we’ll be able to see what has emerged from the DH market and that will have a lot to say about the wisdom of this signing.
(7) I say a wait a month in (6), but JD has pulled the trigger on a number of deals in the past right about Christmas.
(8) For Josey…. Nolan has signed off on this deal. So, it must not be that imbecilic. :)
Pro baseball has always been a dream, so this is pretty freakin’ cool out here. -- Tim Steggall, undrafted Rangers minor leaguer.
I think it's a big topic
because Lowell isn’t a topic anymore, and there’s no other news out there. That’s it.
"Hang-Dai, Wu...Hang-Fu$&ing-Dai"
by Walter Sobchak on Dec 21, 2009 1:15 PM CST up reply actions
I suspect that's the main reason as well.
Pro baseball has always been a dream, so this is pretty freakin’ cool out here. -- Tim Steggall, undrafted Rangers minor leaguer.
It's because something else is about to happen i.e. CJ getting traded
for a hitter.
I hope CJ is not being shipped away for some spare catcher.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
"Business as usual." - Tom Hicks on the Ranger off-season 11/19/09
Let's play what if...
because the more I think about it, we’re obviously trading CJ. We simply cannot afford the luxury of a 39 year old lefty set-up man without another shoe falling. Something else is going to happen and new ownership wants to make a big splash.
Would you trade CJ, Cruz and CDavis straight up for Adrian Gonzales?
Isn’t Gonzo making $ 5 million or so this upcoming season? CJ goes to arbitration and may get $ 2.5-3 million next year (that may be a little high) and Cruz/Crush will probably combine for $ 1.5 million.
Oliver replaces CJ, AG replaces CDavis but we’d be losing a 30 year old Cruz.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
"Business as usual." - Tom Hicks on the Ranger off-season 11/19/09
And would you consider that a fair price for AG
if you were the Padres?
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
"Business as usual." - Tom Hicks on the Ranger off-season 11/19/09
Hell no.
Are you kidding?
Neftali Feliz says sit your 5 dollar ass down before he makes change...
Hi, Keith. Is this the year Edinson Volquez finally wins RoY?
by Brian Thomas on Dec 21, 2009 1:49 PM CST up reply actions
The Padres would be getting a good (not great) pitcher
an intriguingly good player in Cruz albeit older and a wild card in Davis.
For Mark Teixeira, we received a very good young SS and a very good young pitcher and what looks to be a lot of organizational fodder.
CJ would be the only one leaving soon (two years) for free agency.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
"Business as usual." - Tom Hicks on the Ranger off-season 11/19/09
LOL
You are embarassing yourself.
Neftali Feliz says sit your 5 dollar ass down before he makes change...
Hi, Keith. Is this the year Edinson Volquez finally wins RoY?
by Brian Thomas on Dec 21, 2009 6:59 PM CST up reply actions
I would be willing to throw in 3 pitching prospects
not named Feliz or Perez, and consider that a fair deal. I would also be willing to include some of our starting pitching depth if they were interested like, Harrison, Moscoso, or McCarthy if they were at all interested in any of those guys.
not sure how many times ive thought this
but i like the way you think
not sure if san diego does this though. theyve got no use for cruz or really cj, since theyll both be free agents (or just old in cruz’s case)by the time theyre ready to contend. id think theyd want minor leaguers
I'm not completely familiar with
SDO but I do know that they need to replace Giles and Cruz would do that.
They’re taking a chance on Davis but they’d also have control over Cruz for the next 3+ years.
You can always use a lefty like CJ.
At least with that package, SDO would know what they’re getting and the payoff might be huge if Davis recovers.
For Texas, that kills two weaknesses with one stone and improves everything with this offense immediately because our 1B offensive production was the worst by a long ways.
AG could go in the middle of the order (we wouldn’t be as dependent on the fragile Josh), improve the OBP, mash everything in sight, might even be an upgrade defensively.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
"Business as usual." - Tom Hicks on the Ranger off-season 11/19/09
Damn this is a sad day
I agree with Paperboy on this.
2009 Texas Rangers: Why The Hell Not Us?--ghtd36 on May 13, 2009
In the interest of quicker games Ron should just tell the ump he's pulling the Feliz card and the ump should rule the inning over.--Sherman McCoy on Sept. 4, 2009
Gonzalez would be great
but really if you get rid of Cruz and add Gonzalez the net is not that great. If you give up Wilson and Cruz for Gonzalez you may have lost something overall in the RS-RA total.
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Doesn't matter
Padres spit their fish taco up in laughter at that offer.
While it isn’t a huge upgrade for us, they could get WAY more for AG.
Neftali Feliz says sit your 5 dollar ass down before he makes change...
Hi, Keith. Is this the year Edinson Volquez finally wins RoY?
by Brian Thomas on Dec 21, 2009 8:57 PM CST up reply actions
Why?
The players they’d be getting back are ready-made major leaguers with a reasonable expectation of performance.
Good, not great players that are inexpensive with potential for even more upside if Davis gets his act together.
Davis replaces AG, Cruz replaces Giles, CJ goes in their bully with Bell or into the rotation.
If they have some bullshit “5 Step Plan” and wanna runaround trying to impress Baseball America or their own Lewinskys with a bunch of prospects who are difficult to project in The Show, that’s an option but can they sell their fans on another complete rebuild?
I’d rather know what I was getting.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
"Business as usual." - Tom Hicks on the Ranger off-season 11/19/09
I just fail to see why A-Gon helps us
when we have to trade away Cruz to get him. Replacing Cruz is even harder than replacing an ineffective Davis.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
Why not take the simple view of this whole situation.
While I believe the Rangers are looking by every means possible to improve the team, it might not be the case that they can find a good match for what they need in return for CJ.
The had DH and lefty RP as primary needs. Their #1 DH target didn’t pan out. So, they moved onto their #1 lefty RP target. End of story.
There doesn’t need to be something else in the works for this to make sense.
Again, I’m certain the Rangers are exploring every and all options. I just don’t think we should expect something to happen.
Pro baseball has always been a dream, so this is pretty freakin’ cool out here. -- Tim Steggall, undrafted Rangers minor leaguer.
There most certainly does need to be something else in the works
for this to make any sense.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
"Business as usual." - Tom Hicks on the Ranger off-season 11/19/09
Thank you for your
persistent measured approach. The rule of parsimony is always closest to the truth in general, just not in the blogosphere….
I can agree with this
I doubt they’re done on the DH front, but whatever they do to add a bat doesn’t have to depend on their RP ideas.
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Cantu, a pretty good DH?
I don’t get the fascination with Cantu. He’s less than 800 OPS in his career, less than 800 OPS vs LHP, less than 800 OPS vs RHP, best season ever was 808 OPS, plays crappy defense.
Basically, he’s not really good at anything that I can see. He’s not butt horrible either, but I don’t see why we’d actively be seeking to obtain him.
What a drag it is being broke.
He's marginally better thanb Garko vs. lefties and he can "play" 3B
But beyond that, he’s pretty much the same thing Mike Lowell was, only without the Grandpa factors.
We need to do better than that, as I’ve been saying for a long time.
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle
Garko is much better than Cantu against LHP
887 to 799 in OPS and Garko also has him by 60 points in OBP vs LHP.
What a drag it is being broke.
Career-wise, yeah
But the last two years Cantu has OPS’d 892 and 869 against lefties, to Garko’s 870 and 857. Cantu’s overall #‘s are hurt a lot by those two terrible seasons he had, but recently he’s been marginally more successful that Garko against lefties while playing in a pitchers park.
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle
This makes me happy
Because I have faith JD wouldn’t add Oliver if it would completely deplete the cash reserve. Greenberg’s probably okayed more offseason spending, and JD added a quality relief arm. Nothing wrong with that. There’s more to come.
the only thing with greenberg
is that i don’t think he can really ok anything without the deal going through.
All I can guess is that...
MLB or Hicks may have increased the team’s budget after a tentative agreement with Greenberg was reached? Maybe the risk of the deal falling through was deemed minimal, meaning Texas was allowed to spend slightly more money. But you are right, I don’t think Greenberg has any authority to authorize increased spending.
Or perhaps Texas had more money than we realized all along. After all, the reports about the team’s budget have been pretty inconsistent.
by Stephen Rushin on Dec 21, 2009 1:04 PM CST up reply actions
no but I bet he inspires more confidence to spend
through JD, Nolan, and even Hicks – it’s just whether or not MLB will LET us spend more than we have earmarked.
"Hang-Dai, Wu...Hang-Fu$&ing-Dai"
by Walter Sobchak on Dec 21, 2009 1:17 PM CST up reply actions
Please be a tradé
Dbacks had interest in CJ. Ship Davis, CJ, BMac to Arizona for Reynolds and a spare catcher. Reynolds alos plays 3B just like Lowell. Might be a crazy idea, but crazy is what needs to follow this signing. Not that DO is terrible, just a bad PR hit.
"There are two girls that can take a pounding!" Tom Grieve
by Spadedsnake on Dec 21, 2009 1:26 PM CST via mobile reply actions
I think general public perception will be positive
it’s baseball nerds who like to dissect contracts who will find the most problems
Tradé?
What’s a tradé? Sounds like a player swap involving two Frenchmen…
As for your Arizona proposal, who plays first with Davis going to Arizona? Reynolds?
"To have the judgment and wisdom and personal touch of Nolan Ryan, and the tremendous group that JD has assembled, I think the Rangers on the baseball side are the envy of every franchise in baseball in terms of talent."
-- Chuck Greenberg
trade
Reynolds played 1B for Dbacksast year. Play him at 1B until Smoak is ready then he can backup 1B/3B and DH. His protection for the rest of the lineup would surpass any misgivings he has as a fielder. Though I bet you’d have to add one more player on our side.
As for the weird french trade thing, I sent it from my phone and that’s what I got.
"There are two girls that can take a pounding!" Tom Grieve
by Spadedsnake on Dec 21, 2009 1:43 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Reynolds
The only concern I have with him- and I do like him as a player- is that you’re adding another 200-plus strikeouts to a lineup that already has issues with not enough people making consistent contact.
"To have the judgment and wisdom and personal touch of Nolan Ryan, and the tremendous group that JD has assembled, I think the Rangers on the baseball side are the envy of every franchise in baseball in terms of talent."
-- Chuck Greenberg
if theyre getting on base at a high clip
why do you care how they make their outs? i dont think strikeouts are necessarily indicative of a problem making contact. often times its because theyre working deep into counts and seeing a lot of pitches.
Because sometimes you need productive outs
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
productive outs
aside from sacrifice bunts, are not a repeatable skill. too, along with productive outs, you get the gidp
Something good can happen when you put the bat on the ball
Nothing good comes from a strikeout
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
outs are the same in almost every case
and something double-bad can happen when you gidp rather than k
Reynolds & strikeouts
Judging by what I’ve seen of him, he does work a lot of deep counts. But he also has problems making contact- his contact rate is usually around 60-65%- it was 63% in 2009. That’s Russell Branyan territory.
Just for comparison, Adam Dunn is usually around 70-72%; Mike Lowell around 85%.
I don’t have an issue with strikeouts per se. I’d simply like to see the Rangers be a little more versatile on offense- that is, looking to add an Abreu/Nick Johnson type to the lineup, instead of a Reynolds/Branyan type.
"To have the judgment and wisdom and personal touch of Nolan Ryan, and the tremendous group that JD has assembled, I think the Rangers on the baseball side are the envy of every franchise in baseball in terms of talent."
-- Chuck Greenberg
Here is how I see it...
1)First many of the LSB nation talk about if only we could have a better Davis we will be good next year. IMO Reynolds represents the highest ceiling for Davis.
2)Johnson will miss a ton of games due to a blown vag
3)Abreu types that stay healthy and aren’t available.
4)Regardless of what ceiling CJ and BMac have I’m done watching those two. Got my ass ripped by people last year for saying BMac sucks and is fragile. Where is everyone now that thinks he is good? If you don’t make it to the hill your not a good pitcher.
"There are two girls that can take a pounding!" Tom Grieve
by Spadedsnake on Dec 21, 2009 3:02 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
mark reynolds
34 walks in 155 pa vs lefties last year. 69 in 441 for his career
yes please
Well
I agree that he is a strikeout machine. Though I still think the trickle down on the rest of the lineup would be big.
But you wouldn’t be adding a strikeout machine. You’d simply be replacing one for a more productive useful version. If both Davis and Reynolds get 600 PA there is a real good chance that Davis has more strikeouts, .50 points less in average, a shit ton less runs scored, as well as RBI and steals being much lower. Reynolds was just an idea to get more value from an area on the team.
IMO opinion if ARI would take a deal including Davis and CJ plus others that netted Reynolds it would represent the best available player you could get for that package.
"There are two girls that can take a pounding!" Tom Grieve
by Spadedsnake on Dec 21, 2009 11:43 PM CST up reply actions
Okay, pitch movement chart for Oliver - courtesy of Trip at texasleaguers
Pitch data from 2009
The pitch classifications are kind of screwy, so ignore that. Looks like he is pretty much a two-pitch pitcher. He throws a fastball (dots in the upper right quadrant), a slider/curve (dots on the left side), and occasionally some changeups (far right purple dots). The fastballs are interesting because they are quite straight, with some of them behaving like cutters (those near x = 0). I have no idea whether these are actually two separate pitches (fastball and cutter) because all of the dots are jumbled together without a clear distinction between the two groups. If not, then it’s possible that some of his fastball naturally look like cutters – partially contributing to his recent reverse splits.
Again, this is speculation.
Darren Oliver is back with the Texas Rangers in 2010...
if you had told me this 9 years ago, in his last season here.. I would have laughed and said “Darren Oliver will be 39 years old then. I’ll be shocked if he’s still around in 2003, much less 2010.”
something else to consider about CJ
He has been a vert effective pitvhe rin the bullpen for the Rangers.
WAR…
2009: 2.0
2008: -0.4 (bone spurs)
2007: 1.0
He will be earning somehere around $2.75M in 2010. Would he be a 2 WAR or greater SP?
|Space for Rent|
This research and explanation by AJM..
is the reason why I LOVE reading this site. Great stuff, and very informative!
(Just wanted to throw some love out there, it’s the Holiday Season!)
by DevilManHammy on Dec 21, 2009 9:42 PM CST reply actions
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