Mitchel Lichtman on when baseball players peak
by Adam J. Morris on Dec 21, 2009 4:26 PM CST
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PrintMitchel Lichtman has part 1 of an article up at THT, that does an extensive examination of when baseball players peak.
Lichtman takes a separate look at pre-1980 and post-1980 players, and finds that while the peak for post-1980 players is slightly later, and their declines more gradual, modern players still peak, on average, around age 28.
Bill James came in years ago with the conclusion that players peak around 27, while conventional wisdom has generally held that it is later...James incorporated that into his Fourth Noble Truth:
Ballplayers, as a group, reach their peak value much earlier and decline much more rapidly than people believe.
There's been a certain amount of speculation that, well, that was true back then, but in the modern era, the idea that players peak in their late-20s is outdated, and players generally peak later. Lichtman's study seems to suggest that while players peak slightly later, the idea that a player's peak runs through his early-30s is not supported by the data.
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Im thinking about doing a Rangers top 10 plays for 2009, maybe also a top 10 for the decade… anyone want to put forward their list suggestions
TCU Frogs- #3
"THAT WAS MY SPECIAL MONDAY MORNING TAPE, SPECIAL, FOR YOU!
It's fucking Monday afternoon, you should get out of bed earlier."
by FormerLSBUser on Dec 21, 2009 11:04 PM CST up reply actions
Fuck you
And I mean that.
TCU Frogs- #3
"THAT WAS MY SPECIAL MONDAY MORNING TAPE, SPECIAL, FOR YOU!
It's fucking Monday afternoon, you should get out of bed earlier."
by FormerLSBUser on Dec 22, 2009 10:36 AM CST up reply actions
here's a few:
Feliz debut
that Holland 2-hit? shutout
Kinds 30th steal
Andrus 5? steal night
Andrus in the outfield grass (take your pick)
CD stands foul ball catches
by corbsclinton on Dec 22, 2009 12:44 PM CST up reply actions
Hank Blalock's...
game winning home run on July 1st to beat the Angels and pull the Rangers back to within a half a game of the division lead was probably second only to Feliz’s debut in terms of excitement.
God I was pumped up.
by ghostofErikThompson on Dec 22, 2009 6:16 PM CST up reply actions
All decade list..
wasn’t a Ranger game but Blalock’s homerun in the ASG was freaking awesome.
Still glad he is gone.
"There are two girls that can take a pounding!" Tom Grieve
by Spadedsnake on Dec 22, 2009 10:31 PM CST up reply actions
I'll buy the overall 27-28 hypothesis
And one day would like to see a similar analysis done on players that perform above some “goodness” benchmark. The guys who OBP above .350, or SLG around .500, or OPS+ above 100, and have siz or more years MLB service time. I’d suggest that the players who are pretty good tend to stay pretty good a bit longer, and can produce outlier seasons when well past the age 30 mark. Just ideating on that.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912) also -
"Telephone, n. An invention of the devil which abrogates some of the advantages of making a disagreeable person keep his distance."
~Ambrose Bierce
by Ed Coffin on Dec 21, 2009 4:51 PM CST reply actions
I'm with you.
I don’t have any reason to doubt that ballplayers on the whole peak around that time, but that’s a very broad group.
by Black Francis on Dec 21, 2009 5:43 PM CST up reply actions
well, yeah
thats how statistics work, there are always outliers from the main trends. However, you are still better off betting with the stats than against them.
"I don't condone steroids or any other type of growth hormones or anything else, but I could care less, and, for the most part, I don't think the fans give a (bleep). The people that care about it are the people that probably don't like baseball," - Jim Leyland
I know
I’d just like to see groups of several different types of players looked at with the same methodology. I think that would be more telling.
by Black Francis on Dec 22, 2009 7:22 PM CST up reply actions
Another interesting piece on the subject...
Maybe I’ve missed reference to it, but I haven’t seen any references to the Sabernomics Blog. The author did a piece on player aging about a month ago.
Also, if anyone is interested, Shane T. Jensen at the University of of Pennsylvania updated the Spatial Aggregate Fielding Evaluation (SAFE) study through 2008. That project was used in that article a while back that said Derek Jeter was the worst shortstop in the league, to which Jeter replied that there must have been a computer glitch. Not surprisingly, Jeter stayed at the bottom. The results can be found at the bottom of the front page of that site.
Frankie Francisco. C.J. Wilson. Neftali Feliz. Darren O'Day. Pedro Strop.
American League Teams simply know them as "The Basterds."
MGL's study is a reaction, in part, to J.C. Bradbury's study,
which is the one you mention from Sabernomics, and which garnered a lot of criticism from the sabermetric éminence grises, especially tangotiger. Bradbury’s stuff is often vulnerable to these sorts of critiques; I’m more impressed by Jensen’s work.
Lichtman
Should have crammed this down JD’s throat before he went out and signed a 39 year old reliever based on stats generated while playing for a team that knows how to use a bullpen properly.
Wilson, Francisco, O'Day, Otsuka, Gagne, Nippert, even Guardado & others
….have performed well in the Texas bullpen the past few years.
I don’t get why Oliver is expected not to have success.
I don't think Oliver will have a problem here.
We saw last year that good pitchers can pitch well in Texas and bad pitchers get lit up. Darren Oliver is not a bad pitcher. He’s not a loogy and doesn’t have to be handled like one. There’s a lot to question about this move in terms of a possible opportunity cost for lack of a better term, but I think he’ll help the team.
by Black Francis on Dec 21, 2009 5:40 PM CST up reply actions
What?
Neftali Feliz says sit your 5 dollar ass down before he makes change...
Hi, Keith. Is this the year Edinson Volquez finally wins RoY?
by Brian Thomas on Dec 21, 2009 8:08 PM CST up reply actions
OT:
Victor Rojas just said the Rangers need a bat to help protect Josh Hamilton. That struck me as odd. I guess my expectations for Hamilton have fallen so greatly that I’m not looking at him to be in the top 2 or 3 hitters in the lineup.
Heh.
Well, if we ever expect Hamilton to get back to his 2008 #‘s, Victor might have a point. I think it’s possible Hamilton need someone decent batting behind him just so he won’t feel like he has to swing at everything. (No, I don’t think Hamilton is very smart.)
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle
Isn't that what we've been looking for all winter?
I don’t think its an indictment on Hamilton but when the person hitting behind you is little to no threat it has effects. One of them being you try and press and do everything yourself. Which means you may start chasing pitches or jumping on the first decent pitch instead of looking for your true good pitch.
I think Cruz or Kinsler could be that protection but it doesn’t sound like they will get the chance and will bat either in front or a couple spots behind Josh.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Well there is a 30 HR hitter on the team right
that would look pretty good behind him.
|Space for Rent|
I got a haircut today
It was at some place in Lancaster. For 28 bucks I got a good haircut and a shave with a straight razor. And now I’m good looking again, so fuck all you apes.
Anyway it was called “The Cowboy Barbershop” or something. It’s not only for cowboys. Recommended.
At one point...
…Ben claimed he was going to start getting a shave at a barbershop, rather than shaving himself.
I don’t think he actually ever did it, but he claimed he was going to.
by Adam J. Morris on Dec 21, 2009 6:38 PM CST up reply actions
The place where I was going...
was over by Dad’s hospital, so I used to get shaved there when I lived in that direction, but now it’s just a “special occasion” thing.
"Blalock in the cleanup spot makes gives me agita." - Dustin
Well, yeah
Because no one wants to handle your nutsack more than once a month.
by Adam J. Morris on Dec 21, 2009 6:48 PM CST up reply actions 3 recs
I wonder what kind of tip you would have to give for such services?
"BIg whoop, wanna fight about it?"
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
by lost in space on Dec 21, 2009 6:54 PM CST up reply actions
Buster_ESPN Heard this: Yankees working very hard tonight on deal for starting pitcher. Remember that they came close to deal for Aaron Harang in summer
I have to get a knee replacement
I think the Doctor means you …………….
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912) also -
"Telephone, n. An invention of the devil which abrogates some of the advantages of making a disagreeable person keep his distance."
~Ambrose Bierce
by Ed Coffin on Dec 21, 2009 8:18 PM CST up reply actions
I guess not....
“Got a call from a NY writer today wanting to know if I’d heard anything heating up between Yankees and Braves…. Apparently Yankees have hinted at doing "something big" soon. Don’t know if that means pitching”.
Something big...
So Tommy Hunter then?
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle
x
9:11pm: Now Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News tweets that the Yankees are “close to a deal for a starting pitcher, says a source. Still working on who, but I’m told it’s not a salary dump deal”.
Swisher is the only one that comes to mind.
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle
He'd be a good fit here.
Good OF D, can technically play first base as well, hits lefties well, has good OBP skills.
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle
I hope its not us.
"Stats are like a woman in a fine little bikini. You can see a lot, but you can't see everything." -Dirk A. Tron
They'll trade McCarthy for the great Brett Gardner
We need to not always make hard work out of sex- Rick Carlisle.
Fuck Brett Gardner?
"Stats are like a woman in a fine little bikini. You can see a lot, but you can't see everything." -Dirk A. Tron
My feelings about that depend on whether Hughes would be a starter here or not.
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle
tempting
but no
People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring. ~Rogers Hornsby
good question
after looking at his stats it probably would be a good trade. any idea what his contract situation is?
People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring. ~Rogers Hornsby
6 point something million in 2010, 9 mil in 2011 and a 10 million option in 2012 with a 1 mil buyout.
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle
You think the Yanks would chip in any money to pay some of that salary?
Say 6 million over the first two years
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Maybe
Might have to throw in a C prospect though.
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle
they would
have to pick up a majority of it to make it work
People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring. ~Rogers Hornsby
where can i find
player salaries?
People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring. ~Rogers Hornsby
Bookmark this
http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle
Yeah, probably.
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle
Yuck
As much as I can’t stand CJ, still think you can do better than Swish. That is just a douche swap.
"There are two girls that can take a pounding!" Tom Grieve
by Spadedsnake on Dec 22, 2009 8:51 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
x
8:17am: Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets that the Yankees are working to re-acquire Javier Vazquez. The Braves have “always liked” Melky Cabrera and Nick Swisher, Sherman says.
Now they're saying the MF Yanks
may be making room for Holliday as a “Christmas present to Yankee fans.”
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
"Business as usual." - Tom Hicks on the Ranger off-season 11/19/09
wow that is annoying.
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"The purpose of life is to have a fucking good time." - Albert Ellis
by Cecilio's Guante on Dec 22, 2009 8:56 AM CST up reply actions
trade
Vazquez for Cabrera. Good move for the Yanks…..that was hard to say
"There are two girls that can take a pounding!" Tom Grieve
by Spadedsnake on Dec 22, 2009 9:07 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
It's done apparently
The New York Yankees have acquired right-hander Javier Vazquez from the Atlanta Braves for outfielder Melky Cabrera and left-hander Mike Dunn, sources told ESPN The Magazine senior writer Buster Olney. The Braves also are sending right-hander Boone Logan to the Yankees, sources said, and the Yankees are sending the Braves $500,000 in the transaction.
Yeah I gotta think it will be Lowe
and in the Yankees’ rotation as a 4th starter he’d give more than acceptable performance
Javier Vasquez maybe?
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
why?
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Cause he had an era close to 5 when he was there?
We need to not always make hard work out of sex- Rick Carlisle.
OK that was 5 years ago
I would hope we wouldn’t turn down a player who has been good the last 5 years just because he was ok 5 years ago for us. 4.91 ERA in almost 200 innings isn’t steller but theres alot worse
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
He was very average with the White Sox too.
We need to not always make hard work out of sex- Rick Carlisle.
The guy is almost a lock for 210+ innings and almost a K an inning
While walking only around 2 per 9.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
He needs to stick in the NL where he can dominate
We need to not always make hard work out of sex- Rick Carlisle.
That's a misnomer.
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle
If you look beyond his ERA's in Chicago, I don't think it needs much explaining
As mentioned blow, his tRA+’s where all in the same range as in Atlanta this year, and his FIP’s where 3.86, 3.80 and 3.74. The White Sox meanwhile where fourth, third and tenth to last in the MLB in UZR as a team all three of those years (and the Yanks where dead last when he was with them in 2004)
He’s a guy who consistently strikes out 8+ per 9 and has a 2.34 BB/9 for his career. He could dominate in the AL just as well as he can in the NL if he played with a decent defensive team.
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle
False. He needs to stick to the NL were he can dominate.
We need to not always make hard work out of sex- Rick Carlisle.
...
Whatever man.
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle
No argument there
But he would be the #4 in NY behind CC, Burnett, and Pettite. Hes a damn fine #4 starter
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
They mention some previous interest in Big Z over on Pinstripe Alley.
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle
The Cubs need a CF
Melky Cabrera+ for Z
We need to not always make hard work out of sex- Rick Carlisle.
It depends
Z had a huge contract and if the Yanks pick some of it up…
We need to not always make hard work out of sex- Rick Carlisle.
i could see
Big Z in new york turning into a train wreck
People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring. ~Rogers Hornsby
Well
In any case, it’s apparently not happening.
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"WHAT A SHITLOAD OF FUCK" - LL's "Poochie" on Rich Harden signing with Texas over Seattle
BizballMaury Yankees Hit With Luxury Tax Bill of Nearly $26 Million for 2009 http://ow.ly/OrMS Bombers have paid 92% of all luxury tax since ’03
x
The Blue Jays and Mariners reached a tentative agreement on a swap that would send Brandon Morrow to the Blue Jays for Brandon League and a prospect, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Presumably it’d take a solid prospect to balance out the deal.
"Stats are like a woman in a fine little bikini. You can see a lot, but you can't see everything." -Dirk A. Tron
wow?
Nice pickup for the Blue Jays depending on who else they have to send back. Mariners really are going all in for 2010 aren’t they
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Brandon League is still around?
I miss those googles.
We need to not always make hard work out of sex- Rick Carlisle.
League
Hes not as good as CJ but has an extra year of control. So I guess this may give us an idea what we could get for CJ if we do in fact decide to trade him
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Well given CJs better than League
I don’t think we would have to add as solid a prospect to get a Morrow caliber player or we could get a slightly lesser talent without adding anyone
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
You know who I'm thinking of?
Gustavo Chacin.
We need to not always make hard work out of sex- Rick Carlisle.
I'm glad to see...
Morrow out of the division.
Chris Davis probably isn’t, though.
by ghostofErikThompson on Dec 21, 2009 11:22 PM CST up reply actions
M's have made some good moves...
but this isn’t one of them. I like Morrow a lot and think he could be a very good pitcher. League is a decent reliever, but I’d easily take Morrow over him.
I say keep dealing those prospects away M’s.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
Maybe
Since they can’t afford either they are making a run now. Then restocking through draft picks if it doesn’t work. Bet they have had a pretty huge jump in season ticket sales.
"There are two girls that can take a pounding!" Tom Grieve
by Spadedsnake on Dec 22, 2009 9:03 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
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