Rangers Rangers CHONE pitcher projections are out
by Kinslerhomer on Dec 4, 2009 12:07 AM CST
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Some guys:
| Age | G | GS | Won | Lost | IP | Hits | BB | SO | HR | HB | Runs | ER | ERA | R vs Rep |
|---|
| 22 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 95 | 89 | 41 | 84 | 9 | 5 | 45 | 41 | 3.88 | 21 |
Derek Holland:
| 23 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 105 | 112 | 37 | 81 | 16 | 3 | 59 | 54 | 4.63 | 14 |
Kevin Millwood:
| 35 | 30 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 176 | 199 | 64 | 115 | 21 | 8 | 105 | 97 | 4.96 | 18 |
| 31 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 42 | 41 | 17 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 20 | 18 | 3.86 | 4 |
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Those projections all look fair...
And I was surprised to see a somewhat bullish projection for Matt Harrison. It seems a little odd to see a projection system like CHONE suggest Harrison is poised for a better season than Hunter.
But based on what we are seeing from ZiPS, CHONE, etc, I think we can expect that Feldman, Holland, Moscoso, Hunter, Millwood, Harrison, and McCarthy to all be somewhere around league average caliber starters next season. It seems like Feliz is our best chance to get TORP caliber production from a rotation spot at some point next season.
Only 18 starts and 105 IP from Holland?
Wouldn’t that mean something went wrong?
Well
It also predicts 25 starts for Luis Mendoza…
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"It's kind of a new stat that's in vogue" - Joe Buck on OPS
by LSJ on Dec 4, 2009 2:17 AM CST up reply actions
So yeah...
Something went terribly, terribly wrong… LOL.
Aren't these the same guys who predicted the Rangers to win 12 games last year?
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"I spoke with a wife of a Ranger at LaGuardia Airport (just before the infamous siddown with Dom Chiti) and she told me everybody in the organization was pissed at Tom Hicks." - JDubs
by Cecilio's Guante on Dec 4, 2009 7:24 AM CST reply actions
Well next year he won't.
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
by Kinslerhomer on Dec 4, 2009 10:50 AM CST up reply actions
I suspect that...
…if Martin Perez were in the majors in 2010, he’d have an ERA of around 7.
by Adam J. Morris on Dec 4, 2009 7:02 PM CST up reply actions
He'd be a really, really bad man in the minors...
…but he would be facing the best of the best, not your Ryan Freel types.
If he makes an appearance in Arlington come 2011 then we’ve got Full Success.
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"I spoke with a wife of a Ranger at LaGuardia Airport (just before the infamous siddown with Dom Chiti) and she told me everybody in the organization was pissed at Tom Hicks." - JDubs
by Cecilio's Guante on Dec 4, 2009 7:42 PM CST up reply actions
Well
The presumption that these projections make is that there isn’t that sort of self-selection, that you are projecting what that player would do if he were in the majors, without regard to the fact that he wouldn’t actually be promoted to the majors unless he was performing at a level that was at the upper end of his expected range.
by Adam J. Morris on Dec 4, 2009 10:44 PM CST up reply actions
I think Feliz's K rate is pretty low there
"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan
Agreed
This projection system is a bit weird to me. It makes me wonder if they are thinking he’ll miss 40% of the year due to injury or they expect that they will send him down or a combination. 18 starts and no relief appearences is a bit weird to me. This is similar with Holland.
Hitters
Swapping over to the hitters section it is pretty bullish on Hamilton and Davis. This is understandable given last years performance but makes me wonder how they weight past seasons.
These projections don’t consider an improvement in approach either. Kinsler is projected to lead the team with 56 walks. Yikes…
interesting that Eyre is projected to do so well
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
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