On Rich Harden, Kevin Millwood, Chris Ray, and the Rangers
by Adam J. Morris on Dec 9, 2009 9:08 PM CST
402 comments
This was certainly an interesting flurry of events.
And the 2010 Rangers certainly are a different team today than they were yesterday. Are they better? Not necessarily. But they are different, and I think that the team as it stands today is more likely to make the playoffs than the team that the Rangers had yesterday.
So, Kevin Millwood. He's an Oriole now. His 4 year run in Texas was a mixed bag, with his final two seasons here prefaced by offseasons where his purported re-dedication to conditioning was a big story. It was kickboxing after 2007, Nolan Ryan getting all up in his grill in 2008, and in neither case did there appear to be a big improvement in Millwood's performance.
Bob Sturm, tweeting earlier today, referred to Millwood as a "horse." The problem is, in the second half of 2009, the horse Millwood resembled was Barbaro. I think everyone realized the sub-3 ERA Millwood of the first half of the season was a mirage, driven by a great defense behind him, an exceptionally low BABIP, and a ridiculous strand rate that wasn't going to be sustainable. There was going to be regression to the mean. But Millwood after the All Star Break went way beyond regression, with his performance completely tanking in July and August, at the same time the offense disappeared.
And Millwood fading as the summer progressed shouldn't be an unexpected development...he's had problems staying healthy and on the mound the last three years, and he was 34 last year. He's not a great athlete. He's not a Nolan Ryan or a Steve Carlton, a guy who is a conditioning fanatic. He's not a bad pitcher, but he's also not a horse, a guy you can roll out there for 34 starts (like he gave you in 2006) and count on 7 quality innings. He's just a guy, a LAIE, not the #1 the Rangers signed him to be.
And the reality is, the Rangers probably sold high on him. Millwood posted a 3.67 ERA last season despite having peripherals no better than in his two previous 5+ ERA seasons. In fact, it isn't unreasonable to argue that 2009 was his worst season as a Ranger, in terms of pitching as compared to results...his 4.80 FIP was his worst as a Ranger, his 5.61 tRA was his worst as a Ranger, his K rate was his worst as a Ranger, his K/BB ratio was his worst as a Ranger, and his home run rate was his worst as a Ranger.
And anticipating the "he was pitching to contact and getting more ground balls" argument, his GB/FB ratio was also his worst as a Ranger.
Bottom line, Millwood was solid last year, but not special. He wasn't exceptionally reliable, he faded down the stretch, and, given that he's turning 35 in two weeks, he's a lot more likely to get worse than get better in 2010.
That said, Millwood has value. In particular, he has more value to a team that desperately needs a veteran to eat innings and give the team starts. The Rangers teams of the past, the ones that were looking at Aaron Myette and Ryan Glynn, or the Johns Rheinecker and Wasdin, as its alternatives in the rotation, were the type of team that would have killed for a Millwood, a guy who wasn't great, but was steady and was a solid bet to give you 30 starts a year.
But that's not the 2010 Rangers. The Rangers, as has been talked about at length, have assembled a significant amount of pitching depth in the organization. Looking at rotation options, you've got Scott Feldman, Tommy Hunter, Derek Holland, and Brandon McCarthy as likely candidates to be in the Opening Day rotation. And then you've got Neftali Feliz knocking on the door. You've got Dustin Nippert, who posted a 3.88 ERA in 2009 and a 4.27 FIP, and who looked like he can fill in as a spot starter without embarrassing you. You've got Matt Harrison and Eric Hurley coming back from injuries. And there's guys like Guillermo Moscoso and Luis Mendoza and Kasey Kiker and possibly even Tanner Scheppers and Martin Perez hanging around.
This is a team that, should they have a guy missed a start or six, it shouldn't kill them. And the better your sixth and seventh and eighth starters are, the more it makes sense for you to prefer a higher-ceiling, less reliable starter over the safer pick.
Which brings us to Rich Harden, who I talked about last week, when word first came out that the Rangers were interested in him.
And you know...all the talk about Harden makes it sound like we're talking about Glass Joe as the new Ranger starter. But Harden started 51 games from 2008-09, an average of 25.5 per season. Millwood started 60, an average of 30 per season. The difference between the two the last couple of years isn't as great as one would initially believe. As Lookout Landing pointed out earlier today, Harden has as many starts over the past two years as John Lackey, and no one is freaking out about how signing Lackey would cripple a rotation because he can't be counted on to stay healthy.
That said, Harden also missed most of the 2006 and 2007 seasons, and the only reason he's available on a relatively cheap one year deal (with a team option) is because his health has teams scared off. And his homer rate jumped dramatically last season, causing his FIP to creep above 4 for the year. That was driven primarily by a 15% HR/FB rate, though, which is abnormally high...Harden's xFIP was 3.70, right in line with his career mark of 3.75.
There are no guarantees with any pitcher, especially not one with Harden's injury history. But the track record suggests that when Harden goes out to the mound, he'll be better than any starter the Rangers have had in over a decade. 20 starts of Harden and 12 from Nippert is, I think, significantly better than 32 starts from Millwood. And Harden gives you someone you would feel good about starting in game 1 of a playoff series, something you can't really say about Millwood.
As for Chris Ray...whatever. He's a guy who had a good arm and mixed results, then underwent Tommy John surgery and missed two years. Tampa supposedly really likes him, so he could end up going there for Dioner Navarro, or packaged a la Terrmel Sledge in another deal for another piece in the coming days. If not, he'll likely make $1-1.5 million in 2010 and get a chance to set up Frankie Francisco and be the much sought after power righty arm that the Rangers need in the bullpen.
So, all in all, I like these moves. And yet...there's the fly in the ointment, the big negative elephant in the room that overlays all of this.
The Rangers are a better team with Rich Harden and Kevin Millwood than with Rich Harden and Chris Ray. The Rangers are better with Harden and Millwood fronting the rotation than with just Harden. The Rangers, given the paucity of significant salaries in place, should not be having to dump salary to add Rich Harden.
And yet, that was apparently a prerequisite for a deal. At this point, the signals suggest that the Rangers still have very little money to spend, meaning that a big market team that had a $67 million payroll last year, a payroll that has had a sub-$70 million payroll for 6 years running, and has justified it by saying that the team would spend money when the team warranted it, is apparently seeing its payroll drop to below $60 million for 2010.
2010, the year that the front office has been pointing to when they were planning to have a contender. 2010, the year after an 87 win season, a second place finish, and renewed optimism and enthusiasm about the club.
Instead of jumping payroll to $80 million, instead of adding Harden and keeping Millwood and maybe also getting a Ben Sheets or a Nick Johnson or someone else that could fill a need and contribute to a playoff contender, the team is having to get creative in order to add help while cutting payroll from 2009's levels.
And maybe this is premature. Maybe the team will continue pursuing Ben Sheets, or will go spend the money on a Troy Glaus or a Hideki Matsui or another middle of the order bat that would require just a one year deal, but that would actually, you know, be good.
But it still is kind of depressing that the very exciting news of Harden's addition was only made possible because the team dumped one of the two big contracts it had on the books. It is just another instance of how Tom Hicks has damaged this franchise, and another embarrassing reminder of how this franchise is crippled by having to operate on the cheap.
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ahh Adam
You were doing so good until you brought up the payroll issue. IIWII, just deal with it. Hicks will be gone soon.
|Space for Rent|
No
I’m not going to ignore it or just deal with it. It hangs over everything this organization does right now.
by Adam J. Morris on Dec 9, 2009 9:18 PM CST up reply actions
It could be worse,
you could have a Dodgers blog.
by Randy Richardson on Dec 9, 2009 9:23 PM CST up reply actions
How could you not even offer arbitration
to Wolf and get the pick.
Very strange
"Listen to Ted. Trust him. If he cuts you off, switch gears and go with it." -- Shroomer
wonder if they had a pre-arb agreement or something.
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"The purpose of life is to have a fucking good time." - Albert Ellis
Do you have something against Adam or something?
"Blister please, with those wings in your spine.
Love to be with a brother of mine.
How he'd love to find your tongue in his teeth,
In a struggle to find secret songs that you keep,
Wrapped in boxes so tight, sounding only at night as you sleep." ~Jeff Mangum; Neutral Milk Hotel
Ok Jayslick.
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"It's kind of a new stat that's in vogue" - Joe Buck on OPS
No point whining about it on a great day
The situation will be resolved soon enough.
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"When you have a weapon on your shoulder like he has, you can be cool." RW on Perez
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.
It's not a "great day," dumbass.
If the team keeps Millwood and signs Harden then it’s a pretty good day.
Unless something else happens, today was rather meh.
Do the Angels, Mariners, Yankees or Red Sox give up their #1 or #2 starter for a pitcher that’s hurt (paying that team $ 3 million to do so) so they can bring in a good pitcher who will be lucky to put up 140 IPs?
The fan base in this area has been so dumbed down by the current regime that they think any move is a good move.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
"Business as usual." - Tom Hicks on the Ranger off-season 11/19/09
The Angels, Mariners, Yankees or Red Sox
All have a number one or two starter a lot better than Kevin Millwood.
by Darrell McKown on Dec 9, 2009 9:41 PM CST up reply actions
Teams truly in contention don't pull crap like this. This is a typical Ding Dong Ranger kind of move designed
to appease the LCD.
I think Harden is a good pitcher but I’m not expecting more than 140 IPs.
Gambling on a Harden / Nippert combo platter over Millwood is a pretty shaky proposition.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
"Business as usual." - Tom Hicks on the Ranger off-season 11/19/09
LOL, typical outlaw BS
Why would Harden pitch less than 140 innings when he’s pitched just over that the past 2 years?
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
I don't agree with the premise its a typical ranger move
meaning questionable and just designed to make people feel good. But I wouldn’t be too surprised to see Harden log less than 140 innings. Not sure I would say its likely, but its definitely in the range of possible outcomes.
What do voluntary mean?
man you are polarizing...
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"The purpose of life is to have a fucking good time." - Albert Ellis
Whatever fucktard
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"When you have a weapon on your shoulder like he has, you can be cool." RW on Perez
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.
by Rodney on Dec 9, 2009 9:51 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Ownership situation
Okay, say you signed Harden and didn’t trade Millwood.
Your rotation is Harden, Millwood, Feldman, Holland and Hunter, I guess?
Is it worth $9 million to have Millwood in the rotation instead of Feliz?
Unless your owner has an endless supply of money, it seems to me like this combination of moves is a solid use of limited resources.
by Darrell McKown on Dec 9, 2009 9:40 PM CST up reply actions
yes
Jesus the guy isn’t going to come in and be a 20 game winner. Feliz is going to struggle people.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
AT the most
Feliz will likely be at 150 innings next year between the minors and the majors. I just don’t see him going over that. And yes as a starter his numbers are likely to slip some.
What do voluntary mean?
*sigh*
This is coming from the guy who thinks Kasey Kiker + Blake Beavan is a better option than having Feliz in the rotation.
"Blister please, with those wings in your spine.
Love to be with a brother of mine.
How he'd love to find your tongue in his teeth,
In a struggle to find secret songs that you keep,
Wrapped in boxes so tight, sounding only at night as you sleep." ~Jeff Mangum; Neutral Milk Hotel
When the fuck did I ever say that
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
We had this conversation in sometime during a GDT
You said you thought that Feliz would end up in the pen, and Kiker and Beavan would pan out as starters.
You must hate Feliz that much if you think that Kiker (the pitcher who most people believe will be a CJ type) is going to be in the rotation long term over Feliz.
"Blister please, with those wings in your spine.
Love to be with a brother of mine.
How he'd love to find your tongue in his teeth,
In a struggle to find secret songs that you keep,
Wrapped in boxes so tight, sounding only at night as you sleep." ~Jeff Mangum; Neutral Milk Hotel
I said I think Feliz ends up in the pen because I don't understand switching him to the pen in the minors
And I still don’t understand it.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Which problem?
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
My position
Was that if you were going to switch Feliz to the pen fine. But why do it in OKC? Wait to do it when you call him up. How many innings did he miss out on in OKC by switching when he did down there? Without looking at the calendar I would have to guess at least 20 if not 30 or more.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Why?
I just don’t understand why you do that to the guy. We’ve seen alot of times bringing young guys up and breaking them in out of the pen but how many times do they get switched to reliever in the minors before coming up? Not very many. That was what struck me as odd and to me looked like the prelude to a permanent move.
Its since not materialized and I am more than happy about it. But I don’t see whats so odd about being curous about switching your top pitching prospect to a reliever 6 weeks before calling him up
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
you're a bit more than curious
you’re pretty fucking insistent on a position that you’re “curious” on
I haven't been insistent on this in awhile
I was at the time because it didn’t make sense
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
and lots of people told you you were crazy
and people again are telling you you are crazy
but yet you are insistent again.
your preconception is just ridiculous because it is based on…what? what exactly makes you think it is normal to start a guy out as a reliever for the first time in the majors as opposed to the minors?
What I don't get is that he's so insistent
on Feliz being more of a crutch to a potential rotation rather than a young catalyst that will have his spurts.
Just because he’s young doesn’t mean that he’s destined to do terrible.
"Blister please, with those wings in your spine.
Love to be with a brother of mine.
How he'd love to find your tongue in his teeth,
In a struggle to find secret songs that you keep,
Wrapped in boxes so tight, sounding only at night as you sleep." ~Jeff Mangum; Neutral Milk Hotel
Its called an opinion
And my reasoning has legs IMO.
His secondary pitches are still a work in progress. They showed at times last year to be good. They also showed at times to be ineffective.
Guys who faced him multiple times fared alot better the second time around.
Major League hitters can hit fastballs. He won’t be able to rely on that alone as a starter and last very long in games. Lot of foul balls and deep counts.
Long term I think hes gonna be amazing. But next year I think hes gonna struggle about as bad as Holland did if not worse.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
None of what you've said is relevant at all
to why starting him in the bullpen is such a huge mistake.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
That's because we're not discussing that here.
Back in the GDT’s he said that Feliz should not be considered for the big league rotation because of the history of struggles of other young pitchers, he cited mostly Holland.
"Blister please, with those wings in your spine.
Love to be with a brother of mine.
How he'd love to find your tongue in his teeth,
In a struggle to find secret songs that you keep,
Wrapped in boxes so tight, sounding only at night as you sleep." ~Jeff Mangum; Neutral Milk Hotel
Because I had never heard of it being done before
Granted I don’t follow other teams prospects close at all but Rangers ones I hadn’t remembered any being handled that way. All the ones I remembered were starters in the minors and brought up to pitch out of the pen in the majors. No switch.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
If you're calling him up as a reliever...
you want him to be somewhat comfortable in that role. That is all there is to it.
by NoNameOnCard on Dec 9, 2009 10:07 PM CST up reply actions
And I hadn't seen it done very often
In fact I couldn’t recall it ever happening. We didn’t do that with Holland just a few months prior. Moscoso would come up and pitch out of the pen but go down and start in OKC.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Maybe because those guys aren't 21 year olds
who you want to tightly manage their innings
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
And we've never had a pitching prospect like Feliz
It was a unique situation. Yall jumped my shit for no reason IMO
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
There was a good reason for it
You keep posting about how the Rangers foolishly have stuck Feliz in the bullpen and he’ll never move back to the rotation and how it makes no sense to give him some innings out of the Redhawks bullpen. That’s all bull shit that only you seem to be unable to understand.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
How?
Holland was a starter (granted only 1 game) then came up as a reliever who would eventually move back into the rotation.
Sounds alot like what they plan on Feliz doing
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Holland was brought up in long relief
with the idea would be joining the rotation at first opportunity.
Feliz was going to solely be used as a late inning reliever.
This is what the club said at the time
and has said since then. I really don’t understand why there is any questioning of the move.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
They made some statements that were very vague
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
so you're going to bitch about this until you get clarity
like the hamilton/cruz OF situation.
got it. lovely.
I haven't bitched about this in a long time
Im not even bitching about it now.
Someone misunderstood me and thought I thought Kiker and Beavan would be better starters than Feliz when that wasn’t anywhere c lose to my position.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
No, they weren't vague to anyone but you
The only reason the club didn’t come out and say it was because they didn’t want to come out and basically set a timetable for Feliz to be promoted.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
If I had the time tonight I would look up the quotes
But a couple were very vague and left alot to be desired.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Like I said,
anything that was “vague” was only that way because a)It fit your preconceived opinions and b)JD wasn’t going to come out and say that Feliz was preparing for a spot in the ML bullpen very soon
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
Why do it in OKC?
To get him used to pitching out of the pen, since he was going to be pitching out of the pen in the majors. He had 108 innings, which is a fair number for a 20/21 year old, and just a handful less than he pitched the year before.
He probably would have had another 20 innings, had they waited until he came to the majors to switch him.
by Adam J. Morris on Dec 9, 2009 10:00 PM CST up reply actions
To help a team in contention?
When they needed an explosive pen arm?
"Blister please, with those wings in your spine.
Love to be with a brother of mine.
How he'd love to find your tongue in his teeth,
In a struggle to find secret songs that you keep,
Wrapped in boxes so tight, sounding only at night as you sleep." ~Jeff Mangum; Neutral Milk Hotel
Off the top of my head
I may be able to give you stats from 1972 that proves your idea has merit…
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"When you have a weapon on your shoulder like he has, you can be cool." RW on Perez
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.
haha...this is how I look at GDT's
I have a son now, I used to watch game at bars as I enjoyed cold, frothy, alcoholic beverages and flip if shit went wrong.
Everything is the same except that the GDT’s have replaced the actual bar.
So yeah, I say shit that I regret like 5 seconds later, mainly bc when at a bar whatever I say disappears in air, whereas, what I say in a GDT is stamped in eternity.
"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz
"The purpose of life is to have a fucking good time." - Albert Ellis
Jesus the guy could probably come in as a rookie and win 20 games or so.
Neftali the guy, probably not so likely.
I’ve got the holiday spirit.
Your 2009 Texas Rangers: "Can't take a fucking to save their lives" (lisa w, 2009).
Sure he's going to struggle
But he’s not going to be $9 million worse than Millwood.
by Darrell McKown on Dec 9, 2009 9:43 PM CST up reply actions
With our current roster construction
We shouldn’t have to worry about 9 million dollars
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
If that's your argument,
then wouldn’t the idea be to use the $9 million on another player who’s actually worth the amount?
Your 2009 Texas Rangers: "Can't take a fucking to save their lives" (lisa w, 2009).
huh?
We shouldn’t have to cut 9 million to sign Rich Harden. We should be able to sign him and put him alongside Millwood in the rotation
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
You don't follow.
Wouldn’t it make even more sense to sign Harden, make the Millwood-Ray trade, and use the savings so as to
continue pursuing Ben Sheets, or will go spend the money on a Troy Glaus or a Hideki Matsui or another middle of the order bat that would require just a one year deal, but that would actually, you know, be good[?]
Your 2009 Texas Rangers: "Can't take a fucking to save their lives" (lisa w, 2009).
Should have edited the "will" there into a "..."
but I think the idea’s clear.
Your 2009 Texas Rangers: "Can't take a fucking to save their lives" (lisa w, 2009).
If they did that, that's fine
That doesn’t appear to be what is going on, but if it is, then that would be great.
by Adam J. Morris on Dec 9, 2009 9:53 PM CST up reply actions
I also doubt this is what will happen.
And when it doesn’t, I’ll stand in line to complain about how severely the ownership situation has fucked the Rangers this off-season.
But tonight? Tonight I’m going to wear my rose-colored glasses and wave my red-and-blue pom-poms for the maneuvers today.
Your 2009 Texas Rangers: "Can't take a fucking to save their lives" (lisa w, 2009).
Yes if they could get both Sheets and Harden it would be ok
But with our money issues its not happening unless Sheets comes waaaaaaaaaaaay down on his price
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
The $12M rumors are a joke.
There’s no way he or his agent are asking for or looking for that kind of money. No one will pay it.
What was he asking last year.
And what did we agree to terms with him before it fell through?
Shouldn’t his demands be somewhere near that?
"Blister please, with those wings in your spine.
Love to be with a brother of mine.
How he'd love to find your tongue in his teeth,
In a struggle to find secret songs that you keep,
Wrapped in boxes so tight, sounding only at night as you sleep." ~Jeff Mangum; Neutral Milk Hotel
I would expect them to be much lower.
The current report says he’s throwing flat ground at 60 feet… which seems like something he should have been doing in August. I don’t know if I trust that report.
Anyway, he’s been away for an entire year, doing nothing but rehabbing, and I just can’t see him pulling in more than $5M. I expect a relatively low base with plenty of incentives. I’d be shocked to see him get more than a 1 year deal.
The terms of last year’s deal were never released.
by NoNameOnCard on Dec 9, 2009 10:03 PM CST up reply actions
I don't know the source or if its accurate
but i saw an 8 million figure quoted for the initial agreement with sheets last year at some point today.
the preceding post was a great success.
The only thing I've got...
…was that Sheets was to be guaranteed at least $10 million over two years with significant IP-based incentives. So, in the end, probably something like $7-8M per year.
by Joey Matschulat on Dec 9, 2009 10:37 PM CST up reply actions
But when will Sheets sign with a team? Will it be in the next
few weeks or closer to spring training? I can’t imagine anyone signing him to a significant contract if he’s not closer to pitching than has been reported. If it’s closer to spring training, the financial issues that are in the way of signing players should (fingers crossed) be out of the way so signing him should not be as much of a problem.
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by GhostofSteveFoucault on Dec 9, 2009 10:05 PM CST up reply actions
I'm betting right near or after the start of ST
He has to come to realize that he is going to get less then Harden. Once he gets there teams can actually start negotiating.
What do voluntary mean?
What savings?
Hardens contract ate up the savings.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
What's the point though?
Hicks is gone by the beginning of the season and the only way he stays is if he doesn’t have any actual authority. Its a shitty situation but what is there to say that people don’t know already?
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
Don't ignore it
Your recent blogging about this issue is some of the best stuff you done in the years you’ve been covering the Rangers.
The Rangers are a better team with Rich Harden and Kevin Millwood than with Rich Harden and Chris Ray.
That’s exactly why I was frustrated with the Millwood deal. If we were the Red Sox we would have signed Harden while keeping Millwood. And then gone out and signed John Smoltz and Brad Penny to boot. It’s extremely frustrating to be on the cusp of greatness but still hamstrung by Hicks’ ineptitude. God bless Jon Daniels for making the the best of a bad situation.
Not mediocre. Right about average
Do you think the Texas payroll inflates to Boston level with new ownership?
Your 2009 Texas Rangers: "Can't take a fucking to save their lives" (lisa w, 2009).
You're never going to be happy
as a Ranger fan.
At least until Hicks is gone
Not mediocre. Right about average
And on top of giving Baltimore $ 3 million to let Millwood pitch for them
Jamey says that the team is shopping Josh at the Winter Meetings?
Why do I think the off-season isn’t going so well for Josh?
Yeah, just a “great” day.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
"Business as usual." - Tom Hicks on the Ranger off-season 11/19/09
Actually
Someone at the NY Post says the Rangers are shopping Hamilton.
by Adam J. Morris on Dec 9, 2009 11:03 PM CST up reply actions
I don't see how that makes any sense
He’s not going to be that expensive, his value is down, and any reasonable expectation we have of improving the offense depends on him being productive again.
by Darrell McKown on Dec 9, 2009 11:07 PM CST up reply actions
talking about value being down
what do you think Volquez is worth these days?
Depends on how the story was spun.
What if: someone at the meetings says to someone at the NY Post: “You know, I talked with Jon Daniels earlier, and he said he’d had some conversations about dealing Hamilton, and I asked him what it would take for a trade to happen, and he said, ‘Return talent along the lines of Roy Halladay.’” Does that become "Rangers shopping Hamilton?
Your 2009 Texas Rangers: "Can't take a fucking to save their lives" (lisa w, 2009).
Gracias. Thought I read somewhere in here that Newberg
was saying the Rangers were shopping him.
Think about this…he has otherworldly talent and the Rangers traded one of their prized young arms (who won 17 games) to get him plus he is under club control for three more years.
Trading him has to be for off the field reasons.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
"Business as usual." - Tom Hicks on the Ranger off-season 11/19/09
Congrats on the intellectual honesty, Adam.
Somebody needed to say it to keep the dumbasses from spending the rest of the evening giving each other reach-arounds on what the Rangers did today.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
"Business as usual." - Tom Hicks on the Ranger off-season 11/19/09
And then you do something like that.
You were being so cordial and downright decent, and then you say something like that.
A tiger can’t change his stripes, I suppose.
What do tigers dream of when they take a little tiger snooze? Do they dream of mauling zebras, or Halle Berry in her Catwoman suit?
Yep
Because taking any joy in the fact the Rangers added an ace-caliber pitcher, even one with injury issues, makes you a mindless cheerleader and a dumbass.
Josey, weren’t you the one saying at the trade deadline that JD needed to be creative in trying to improve the team and stop coasting on the farm system? That’s exactly what he did today.
Step back from your agenda for a moment, stop taking such pleasure in being a fucking killjoy, and appreciate that JD took some steps to improve This Thing with the limited resources our piece of crap outgoing owner deemed fit to bless him with.
"Just remember what ol' Jack Burton does when the earth quakes, and the poison arrows fall from the sky, and the pillars of Heaven shake. Yeah, Jack Burton just looks that big ol' storm right square in the eye and he says, "Give me your best shot, pal. I can take it."
RC
This wasn’t much more than moving pieces around on a chess board and while one problem was solved another problem was created.
We’ll be lucky to get 140 IPs and 15 starts where he goes at least 6 innings next year. Count me as very skeptical regarding Dusty Tits as the second half of the Harden combo platter.
I view Harden as the pitcher who is replacing the innings that Padilla & Benson gave us and that’s a massive upgrade but in order to fix that problem a gaping hole was created (the 198 IPs Millwood gave us) in the rotation that needs to be filled.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
"Business as usual." - Tom Hicks on the Ranger off-season 11/19/09
I'm not a stathead
nor do I pretend to be, but why are you so leery of this acquisition? I’m by no means trying to say we should have had to trade Millwood to sign Harden, but why wouldn’t a Harden+_____ combo be as effective. If Millwood’s ~200 innings gave us a FIP or whatever of 4.80, I think we can probably count on Harden to at worst provide a FIP of 4 with around 133 (2/3 for arfgument’s sake). To get to that same 4.80, the substitute for the other 67 innings would simply need to pitch at a 6.40 clip. I would probably make that trade anyway even though I think it is reasonable to expect better.
Millwoods FIP resulted in a ERA under 4
All the other guys whos FIP were as good or better than Millwoods didn’t have those kind of results. At some point you have to get it done regardless of what the stats say. Millwood was able to do that somehow. The other guys weren’t
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
That somehow
Millwood was able to do that somehow.
Would be luck.
"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan
by Dirk Diggler on Dec 10, 2009 10:29 AM CST up reply actions
And you're confident
that his ERA results are repeatable for this coming season with the bad peripherals? If so, we just have a difference in opinion. Which do you think changes, his ERA to fit the peripherals or the peripherals to fit the ERA?
I think his ERA goes up a little
While his peripherals go down a little
180-190 innings at a 4.15-4.20 ERA
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
No way
Not in the AL East. 160 IP 5.30 ERA
"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan
by Dirk Diggler on Dec 10, 2009 1:12 PM CST up reply actions
I was prediocting what he would do in Texas
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
I'm inclined to think that this isn't necessarily true.
I find it hard to believe that the Rangers would ship out Hamilton. And if they did — considering what a boon he has been marketing and PR wise (even if not consistently baseball-wise) — I’d have a hard time understanding it.
What do tigers dream of when they take a little tiger snooze? Do they dream of mauling zebras, or Halle Berry in her Catwoman suit?
it's one report from one random guy at the post
I doubt there’s anything substantial behind it.
"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan
by Dirk Diggler on Dec 9, 2009 11:11 PM CST up reply actions
I saw you get into with the sturminator on twitter
he didn’t like what I had to say either
"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan
by Dirk Diggler on Dec 9, 2009 11:12 PM CST up reply actions
You know, for a guy who prides himself on being a "stat guy"...
…he certainly hates stats, especially when they don’t agree with his preconceived notion that Kevin Millwood was absolutely incredible last year.
But when he threw out that Kevin Millwood had a sub-4 ERA over 200ish innings at RBIA, that’s when I stopped listening.
He didn’t like it when I compared Millwood’s ERA to Aaron Rodgers’ QB Rating.
What do tigers dream of when they take a little tiger snooze? Do they dream of mauling zebras, or Halle Berry in her Catwoman suit?
Yeah
I clicked on his blog post and when I saw him cite quality starts I thought I was reading a bigsteve post.
"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan
by Dirk Diggler on Dec 9, 2009 11:22 PM CST up reply actions
Yeah. Way to find the black lining to a silver cloud.
Pro baseball has always been a dream, so this is pretty freakin’ cool out here. -- Tim Steggall, undrafted Rangers minor leaguer.
Well said
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
Yep
But it still is kind of depressing that the very exciting news of Harden’s addition was only made possible because the team dumped one of the two big contracts it had on the books
But props to JD for getting creative. New ownership can’t get here soon enough.
I think Luke French has a lot of potential. TORP potential.-Dstar
THIS
he has more value to a team that desperately needs a veteran to eat innings and give the team starts. The Rangers teams of the past, the ones that were looking at Aaron Myette and Ryan Glynn, or the Johns Rheinecker and Wasdin, as its alternatives in the rotation, were the type of team that would have killed for a Millwood, a guy who wasn’t great, but was steady and was a solid bet to give you 30 starts a year.
But that’s not the 2010 Rangers.
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"It's kind of a new stat that's in vogue" - Joe Buck on OPS
Payroll
I know it isn’t much a consolation: but imagine if they dumped Millwood’s contract just to get back in the red. At least they’re taking the money saved and spending it rather than pocketing it.
"Listen to Ted. Trust him. If he cuts you off, switch gears and go with it." -- Shroomer
I'm very pleased to have Harden
it could have been much worse like you said, where we don’t spend the money, but pocket it instead.
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
Good take.
"Stats are like a woman in a fine little bikini. You can see a lot, but you can't see everything." -Dirk A. Tron
The fact that we still have improved the team without
adding to the payroll is still a good move.
it’s a shame what Hicks has done, and he can’t be gone soon enough, but let’s enjoy this for a little be eh.
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
Agreed on all points
Also, let’s give props to JD. It would have been real easy to throw up his hands, do nothing, and say “what did you expect me to do?” this year. He didn’t. He got creative, and I think made the team better.
Agreed
It’s nice to have someone running the show that doesn’t use “small market” (ahem) as an excuse but rather an incentive to get creative and get things done.
"Listen to Ted. Trust him. If he cuts you off, switch gears and go with it." -- Shroomer
I would rather have 32 starts from Nippert than 32 starts from Millwood
Greatest Inventions Ever? 1. TiVO, 2. Boobs, 3. Baseball
Thats just retarded
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
sorry, I would rather have 32 starts from Nippert AND $12M than 32 starts from Millwood
Greatest Inventions Ever? 1. TiVO, 2. Boobs, 3. Baseball
same here
Milly will suck next year. Just like he sucked the second half of this year. He’s about done and the Rangers sold high.
Millwood in the AL East
ouch.
"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan
by Dirk Diggler on Dec 9, 2009 10:05 PM CST up reply actions
Listen
The team is about to be sold to Chuck, Ryan, and little Hicks and then hopefully there will be some payroll stability. Until then, JD had to find a way to make the deal and not increase payroll, as he is still working with that big credit line we got from MLB, which I am sure is like a black cloud(or maybe a green one) over the front office.
After the sale, maybe JD can go to Chuck and say hey, I know you wont technically own the team until Feburary 1st, but how about we kick the tires on Vlad and give him a 1 yr insentive deal, and we look at adding Sheets on a small deal to see what he’s got?
And you know what, Chuck will probably say go for it… No insider knowledge, just the gut… Good things are coming, you just have to wait… It is, as they say, so very hard to wait
TCU AD/PR Student: I Need A Job
Uh
After the sale, maybe JD can go to Chuck and say hey, I know you wont technically own the team until Feburary 1st, but how about we kick the tires on Vlad and give him a 1 yr insentive deal, and we look at adding Sheets on a small deal to see what he’s got?
Can they do that?
"Blister please, with those wings in your spine.
Love to be with a brother of mine.
How he'd love to find your tongue in his teeth,
In a struggle to find secret songs that you keep,
Wrapped in boxes so tight, sounding only at night as you sleep." ~Jeff Mangum; Neutral Milk Hotel
But that's assuming Greenberg or Gilbert or whoever will be fully approved by then.
Which is a much more tricky proposition.
Of course
"Blister please, with those wings in your spine.
Love to be with a brother of mine.
How he'd love to find your tongue in his teeth,
In a struggle to find secret songs that you keep,
Wrapped in boxes so tight, sounding only at night as you sleep." ~Jeff Mangum; Neutral Milk Hotel
Ya
I was thinking back to that story about Gilbert and Bonds when the Giants were getting new owners…
TCU Frogs- #3
"THAT WAS MY SPECIAL MONDAY MORNING TAPE, SPECIAL, FOR YOU
by PM Productions on Dec 9, 2009 9:28 PM CST up reply actions
Well, hot dog.
Which one of us has Chuck’s email, someone needs to send him that idea.
"Blister please, with those wings in your spine.
Love to be with a brother of mine.
How he'd love to find your tongue in his teeth,
In a struggle to find secret songs that you keep,
Wrapped in boxes so tight, sounding only at night as you sleep." ~Jeff Mangum; Neutral Milk Hotel
It was in that post
Since it is christmass, we should formulate our LSB christmass wish list for our new owner, and see what we get…
Vlad: 1 year, 6.5mill guaranteed w/ up to $3 mil more in performance boosters…
Sheets: 1 year, 5 mill guaranteed w/ up to $5 mill in " " "
TCU Frogs- #3
"THAT WAS MY SPECIAL MONDAY MORNING TAPE, SPECIAL, FOR YOU
by PM Productions on Dec 9, 2009 9:30 PM CST up reply actions
I agree with you 100% AJM
Also, add this to my wish list.
Bring back Josh Lewin so I can here him say
BALLGAME!!! THE RANGERS ARE THE 2010 AL WEST CHAMPIONS!!!
One can dream, right?
"Blister please, with those wings in your spine.
Love to be with a brother of mine.
How he'd love to find your tongue in his teeth,
In a struggle to find secret songs that you keep,
Wrapped in boxes so tight, sounding only at night as you sleep." ~Jeff Mangum; Neutral Milk Hotel
That's overly dramatic
Yesterday, the sky was falling because the Rangers weren’t going to do anything.
Today, the sky is falling because the Rangers dealt a bad contract in order to actually improve the team.
I love this team to be able to spend more money, but the fact is that even without the ownership debacle, the very financial results you posted the other day don’t really support pouring a lot of money into this team right now.
Yep
But it does get the DMN types to post here, which is the ultimate goal.
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"When you have a weapon on your shoulder like he has, you can be cool." RW on Perez
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.
If adam said everything is improved now and we'll be fine next season then there would be nothing to comment about
Instead he brought up some drama. Very valid reasonable drama in order to get some discussion going, which is exactly what a good blogger does. If he wants a popular blog site of course.
I'm just goofin' new boot goofin'
No
I commented on it because it is one of the elements of this deal that I think is worth commenting about.
I think that, if anything, it would be intellectually dishonest not to acknowledge that issue.
by Adam J. Morris on Dec 9, 2009 10:16 PM CST up reply actions
Why?
I’m not taking the position that you’re raining on my parade as some are, but it’s not like we don’t know this. We do, not mentioning it would simply be because it’s not exactly news.
no i see the point
it seems like a fairly significant deal that the rangers couldn’t sign harden to a 7.5M deal without shedding a ton of salary.
I don't have any problem with him mentioning it
Intellectually dishonest though? Seemed way over the top to me. I’m nitpicking I guess.
I'm sure he just added that to confuse me.
There is a glowing theme that i am stupid.
It is correct.
I'm just goofin' new boot goofin'
That may be the right word
But again, the elephant in the room is that dumping Millwood’s salary was apparently a prerequisite to adding Harden, and I don’t see how you can just ignore what that says about the Rangers’ payroll situation.
by Adam J. Morris on Dec 9, 2009 10:33 PM CST up reply actions
That may NOT be the right word
Or the right phrase, anyway.
by Adam J. Morris on Dec 9, 2009 10:33 PM CST up reply actions
See you even confused yourself
Big words are bad for everyone, even smart people.
I'm just goofin' new boot goofin'
Agreed on all counts.
Wonderfully stated. To expand on it, I think that a lot of the initial dislike for the Millwood trade was centered around us not being able to fully accept the idea that a D/FW team which has annually had low payrolls for sometime now would have to dump a contract for virtually nothing. These are the types of moves that a team like Detroit, ravaged by the current economy and loaded with bloated contracts, have to make.
The reason that most of us have lost ourselves in glee is that there is a very real chance that the Rangers just pulled off a Beane-esque move of using money as an excuse to offload an older, expensive player who was likely to decline and replace him with a cheaper option. Millwood at $12 million compared to Harden at $7.5 ($10.5 when you include money sent to the O’s) is a great deal for the 2010 Rangers (and 2011).
Millwood and Harden compared to Harden is an incredibly unpleasant reminder of how badly new ownership needs to hurry the hell up.
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
by GhettoBear04 on Dec 9, 2009 9:24 PM CST via mobile reply actions
Solid points all around
Neftali Feliz says sit your 5 dollar ass down before he makes change...
Hi, Keith. Is this the year Edinson Volquez finally wins RoY?
by Brian Thomas on Dec 9, 2009 10:35 PM CST up reply actions
Rosenthall on Lowell
Ken_Rosenthal—— Lowell to Texas being discussed. Source: “Kicking of tires, but not very far along. Right now, I don’t see it, but..”
TCU AD/PR Student: I Need A Job
I don't agree it made the TEAM better
I think it made our #1 slot in the rotation better on an individual basis. But I don’t have the faith that guys like Harrison and Hurley and Moscoso, etc will give you what Millwood would have given you. Call it luck or whatever but in the end he didn’t allow alot of runners to cross home plate and he went deep into games. Those other guys may have better K rates and FIPs but they seem to allow alot of runs to score and don’t last deep into games.
As for Nippert, given our young rotation I believe he will get plenty of work as the long man. Enough where I don’t know if he will be available to spot start much
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Doug Mathis
I suspect he’s the long man.
by Adam J. Morris on Dec 9, 2009 9:27 PM CST up reply actions
I think we'll need two
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
I think Nippert is the long man/spot starter
and Mathis sort of the Jennings/Wright role.
|Space for Rent|
I can see that
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Huh?
Why are you comparing Millwood to Harrison and Hurley and Moscoso?
Compare him to Harden.
by Darrell McKown on Dec 9, 2009 9:27 PM CST up reply actions
Because when Harden goes down those are the guys you have to turn to
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Well....
Millwood pitched 58 more innings than Harden last year, and 20 more in 2008.
Harden plus a few games of someone like Matt Harrison is still better than Millwood.
by Darrell McKown on Dec 9, 2009 9:32 PM CST up reply actions
Okay...
but 140 IP from Harden and 60 IP from those guys is still better than 200 IP from Millwood.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
Not necessarily
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
"Business as usual." - Tom Hicks on the Ranger off-season 11/19/09
Yeah...
Who gives a fuck if they have better K rates and FIPs, which also happens to mean they’re more effective pitchers.
Fuck that shit.
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"It's kind of a new stat that's in vogue" - Joe Buck on OPS
Well whenever the scoreboard starts giving wins and losses based on those stats then i'll use them more
I know what they tell and what they are supposed to show but actual results also matter and however he did it he got it done. Soemthing those other guys couldn’t do even if they were more effective
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
What exactly does this mean
I know what they tell and what they are supposed to show but actual results also matter and however he did it he got it done. Soemthing those other guys couldn’t do even if they were more effective
You want to discount that stats that tell you how well Millwood actually pitched this year and indicate he really has zero chance of pitching that well again next year just because you’re in love with this year’s results, which we all know where acquired via luck and buoyed by his first half stats?
That’s ignorant man. Plain ignorant.
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"It's kind of a new stat that's in vogue" - Joe Buck on OPS
No
But everyone saying how easy it is to do what Millwood did this year yet not many guys did what he did.
How he did it I don’t know. Was it luck? Or did our defense help him that much? However it was he kept guys from crossing home plate which last time I checked was the goal of a pitcher. And while Harrison and other guys may have had stats that say they were just as good as Millwood in the end they weren’t because they allowed more guys to cross the plate. Im sorry but as good as all these advanced stats are they can also keep you from seeing whats actually happening. And I don’t believe that our young guys could give us what Millwood could next year
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Well
I don’t know how to put this any other way: you’re wrong. You seem to be in love with Millwood and his “veteran presence” for some reason and have decided that for some reason he is an exception to the advanced metrics that actually tell you about how he pitched in 2009 because you don’t believe the results.
The reality is guy is not going to duplicate 2009 ever again, and I think he’s pretty likely to be closer to the pitcher he was in the second half next year than he is to being this great 200 inning “horse” you see him as. Obviously you can’t and won’t be told this however, so I’ll just stop trying.
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"It's kind of a new stat that's in vogue" - Joe Buck on OPS
the thing is
you don’t even need the advanced stats to show that millwood was terrible at the end of the season
The July ERA is inflated
Because his last few starts before the break were awful. Post-break in July, he was stellar.
He fucking sucked
in the second half. Period.
I'm pretty sure he's being facetious.
"Blister please, with those wings in your spine.
Love to be with a brother of mine.
How he'd love to find your tongue in his teeth,
In a struggle to find secret songs that you keep,
Wrapped in boxes so tight, sounding only at night as you sleep." ~Jeff Mangum; Neutral Milk Hotel
I'm making fun of your "Period." statement.
His ERA was above average and he had a .625 winning percentage. His peripherals were awful and he was much worse than he had been in the first half, when he spoiled most Rangers fans, but he did not “fucking suck.”
Mark Clark fucking sucked.
by NoNameOnCard on Dec 9, 2009 10:09 PM CST up reply actions
July 1 to end of the season
He posted a 5.02 ERA and a .354 OBP. For $12MM that fucking sucks.
I picked that date because, had he not skipped a start, that would have been exactly have of his starts.
Kevin Millwood made about $11M last season.
He was worth 2.4 WAR, at the estimated free agent rate for WAR… Millwood was worth $10.9M last season.
Even if he sucked in the second half, we got about $10.9M of value out of him. That happens to be just about what he was paid.
Go figure.
by NoNameOnCard on Dec 9, 2009 10:19 PM CST up reply actions
Do you think that Ben Zobrist
would have been worth paying $38.5 million last year?
Your 2009 Texas Rangers: "Can't take a fucking to save their lives" (lisa w, 2009).
Thank you
I see I have someone else smart enough to realize that the Fangraphs value system is seriously off.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
It's not the system, it's the application
If we say that Player X on Team Y was worth $30M in value in 2009, that does NOT mean that Team Y should have paid him $30M for his performance, or should now pay him $30M for his 2010 performance. It simply means that Player X produced at a level equivalent to what you would have expected to get if you had spent $30M in free agency before the 2009 season.
by Joey Matschulat on Dec 9, 2009 10:52 PM CST up reply actions
One question, I suppose,
is what you gain by translating WAR into dollar figures in that way.
But if you’re going to, then I agree: it helps not to confuse this sort of extrapolation with real salary expectations.
Your 2009 Texas Rangers: "Can't take a fucking to save their lives" (lisa w, 2009).
It does seem useless to use in that way
and most of the uses of it that I’ve seen, even on their website, compare it to a player’s actual salary.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
I think fangraphs WAR
has a problem with linearly weighting their valuation that specifically interferes with the elite level player’s. I understand their point: elite players are THAT much better than average players. But realistically, I’m not sure even the Yankees could afford to pay a player more than $35 million/year because the risk of injury is just to great.
However, I do think that these valuations are decent for general discussion up to 5-6 WAR.
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
by GhettoBear04 on Dec 9, 2009 10:27 PM CST up reply actions
I haven't analyzed their system,
and so I don’t know how decent for general discussion their numbers are overall.
But there’s a lot to be said for a statistical model that doesn’t lose touch with reality due to outliers.
Your 2009 Texas Rangers: "Can't take a fucking to save their lives" (lisa w, 2009).
Right, so the question is:
Will he be worth 3 WAR next year? I think there’s a decent argument to be made that he’s not even worth the $9 million that Baltimore will pay him next year.
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
by GhettoBear04 on Dec 9, 2009 10:22 PM CST up reply actions
From his first start after the break...
…until they finally skipped him in the rotation:
9 games, 45 2/3 IP, 5.32 ERA, 30 Ks, 23 walks, 7 homers
That’s pretty bad.
by Adam J. Morris on Dec 9, 2009 10:05 PM CST up reply actions
And
Watching it live made it that much worse.
Yahoo! says you're bad at math.
Post-break splits: 12 games, 68.2 IP, 4.06 ERA, 44 K, 27 BB, 9 homers.
by NoNameOnCard on Dec 9, 2009 10:11 PM CST up reply actions
So, we're choosing to ignore his final 3 games?
by NoNameOnCard on Dec 9, 2009 10:15 PM CST up reply actions
Because it was clear to everyone
that he didn’t have the stamina or health to pitch the full season without taking a break.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
And a single skipped starts fixes all of that?
by NoNameOnCard on Dec 9, 2009 10:19 PM CST up reply actions
No, not on its own
but it was a huge help for him to finally get a break after being unable to pitch at 100% for the better part of two months. in reality, Millwood needed to skip more starts and probably take a DL break so we could avoid his piss poor 9 game stretch, but then Millwood doesn’t get his option guaranteed and everyone throws a hissy fit.
The bottom line is that Millwood is not a horse, isn’t likely to pitch more than the 170 or so innings he had in 07 and 08, and really isn’t likely to throw that many more innings than Harden to be worth the tradeoff in talent.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
OK well I don't take fangraphs as the bible
You for one have made me hate advanced stats with such a passion that it pains me to even mention them sometimes. To me the advanced stats are useful but don’t paint the entire picture. And with Millwood the rest of the picture is that he got the job done. other guys didn’t even though their advanced stats say they were just as good as Millwood.
And yes I do put alot of stock into his veteran presence. I find it funny that the reason Baltimore was interested in him was to be an anchor for the rest of their young rotation and we decided to give our anchor away. Guys like Millwood don’t matter much in video games but in real life they are important. Just like clubhouse chemistry its something that is hard to measure. I think that although we upgraded our #1 pitcher slot on an individual game basis I think over the course of the entire season we weakened our team. None of your advanced stats will change that opinion.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
No
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Our bullpen isn't made up of a ton of young guys this year
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
?
We’ve lost Jennings and Guardado, and added Ray and Rapada.
Everyone else is the same!
by NoNameOnCard on Dec 9, 2009 10:05 PM CST up reply actions
All our guys have several years experience
The same can not be said for our rotation
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Rapada is going to be 29 on opening day, geez.
not going on either side of the argument or care about leadership, just looked him up again with the mention and noticed. obviously he has little experience in the mlb.
the preceding post was a great success.
So to you
the big picture is full of smoke and mirrors?
"Blister please, with those wings in your spine.
Love to be with a brother of mine.
How he'd love to find your tongue in his teeth,
In a struggle to find secret songs that you keep,
Wrapped in boxes so tight, sounding only at night as you sleep." ~Jeff Mangum; Neutral Milk Hotel
This is a guy who struggled to report to camp in shape
and repeatedly appeared to fade over the second half of the season.
There’s something to be said for veteran presence, but there’s also something to be said for that presence to be a good example for younger players, isn’t there?
Your 2009 Texas Rangers: "Can't take a fucking to save their lives" (lisa w, 2009).
OK so skip him a start in July or August
Hes been durable (averaging 30+ starts a year in Texas) and hes given you innings. Lets see how Harden holds up in the Texas heat?
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Hardenplayed in AZ?
May be used to the heat lol
What does this have to do with "veteran presence"?
The argument that Millwood’s an LAIE is a different one.
Your 2009 Texas Rangers: "Can't take a fucking to save their lives" (lisa w, 2009).
After reading all of this
I feel like you’re arguing just to argue at this point.
No I just don't see Kevin Millwood as the horrible pitcher so many people here do
And I think the thing he brought to the table (durability and innings) are going to be missed alot.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
and I think you're wrong
but I don’t need to post 50 different responses so that you know that.
Heh
Neftali Feliz says sit your 5 dollar ass down before he makes change...
Hi, Keith. Is this the year Edinson Volquez finally wins RoY?
by Brian Thomas on Dec 9, 2009 10:40 PM CST up reply actions
x
http://www.lonestarball.com/2009/12/9/1193635/rich-harden-a-ranger#26868546
"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan
by Dirk Diggler on Dec 9, 2009 10:09 PM CST up reply actions
Since the Millwood trade looks like it was needed for the Harden move
the Millwood trade isn’t bad. It would be better if we had both Millwood and Harden here, and I do think we have the base to support that payroll just not the current ownership group.
Millwood was overpaid, and had some questionable performances in the later stages of last year. The problem is over all he was still a functional starter. And we have to replace his innings somehow with equivalent or better or we end up being worse.
In short I think we added a little to the team, but not as much as you would think that we had adding a name like Harden.
What do voluntary mean?
Sure. My argument is still that the Millwood-Ray trade's a good one,
from a value perspective. If the Rangers had $9 million extra to spend, and had signed Harden with that, I’d still be happy with this trade going down, such that Texas could pursue yet another player worth $9 million rather than paying it to Millwood.
This is effectively saying the same thing as Adam does in his post above, but taking the optimist’s tack. Once the Rangers show they’re in fact not going to spend an additional $9 million on a better-than-Millwood player, then I’ll be more aggravated. For now, I’m going to appreciate the addition.
Your 2009 Texas Rangers: "Can't take a fucking to save their lives" (lisa w, 2009).
Millwood went deep into games
because Ron Washington’s head was up his ass.
Greatest Inventions Ever? 1. TiVO, 2. Boobs, 3. Baseball
Rangers to get Baltimore's Rule V selection
According to a major league source, Baltimore, which picks third in the Rule V draft, the last act of the winter meetings, will make a selection on the Rangers behalf in the first round. The player will be sent to the Rangers after the draft is completed.
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"When you have a weapon on your shoulder like he has, you can be cool." RW on Perez
And the little bastard threw it for a swinging strike three in a 3-2 count. He’s blessed. And ballsy.
So, what notable players are out there unprotected?
by Too Legit To quit on Dec 9, 2009 9:27 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
x
David Brown on some possible Rule 5 selections: http://www.bbtia.com/home/2009/12/1/2009-rule-5-draft-preview-10-pitchers.html
by Joey Matschulat on Dec 9, 2009 9:29 PM CST up reply actions
My guess
It will be someone out of the blue we haven’t discussed.
Or we’ll trade that selection to Tampa with Chris Ray for Navarro
by Adam J. Morris on Dec 9, 2009 9:34 PM CST up reply actions
Chris Ray for Navarro
That is a bad deal for the Rangers.
by Darrell McKown on Dec 9, 2009 9:35 PM CST up reply actions
Perhaps a SS/2B with good glove but questionable bat to serve as utility infielder?
Any such person out there?
Or the boring answer: bullpen people
Local media reaction to Harden/Ray for Millwood
I’m guessing it’s going to be about 95% negative.
talk radio yes
reasonable fans no… depends how the morning papers spin it.
TCU Frogs- #3
"THAT WAS MY SPECIAL MONDAY MORNING TAPE, SPECIAL, FOR YOU!
It's fucking Monday afternoon, you should get out of bed earlier."
by PM Productions on Dec 9, 2009 9:33 PM CST up reply actions
Columnists are not going to be happy.
I can guarantee you that.
The thing that pleases me the most:
There have been very legitimate concerns that while Daniels has done a very good job at managing and improving the scouting and development of draftees, Latin American free agents, and minor league players across various organizations, there hasn’t been an overwhelming amount of evidence that his front office could identify and properly value major league players. While some doubt still exists in my mind, mainly concerning trades involving Ranger prospects for major league players (and the portfolio of troubling leaked rumors that may or may not resemble the truth), the sort of thought processes required to make today’s moves give me that much more confidence in Daniels.
Cheers all around.
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
by GhettoBear04 on Dec 9, 2009 9:34 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
I can't agree with the doubters
If you look at the moves he’s made, he’s rarely made a move that didn’t have some good logic behind it. The only major move I can think of is the Eaton/A-gon deal which pretty clearly had Buck to at least partially blame. The other moves that people bitched about were moves that just didn’t go the Rangers way but didn’t show any kind of a poor thought process.
He’s also made moves and signings that have seen talented players play here, but that always gets overlooked. Carlos Lee and Nelson Cruz came here for what was basically 2 months of Coco. We all know about Cruz now, but Lee did his part in 06 and the rest of the team didn’t. JD doesn’t get credit for bringing Lee here for nothing because the ML team didn’t go to the playoffs, but that doesn’t mean he didn’t still help the ML team. How one can look at this team and say JD hasn’t done anything to help the ML team is baffling since he has brought in just about every productive player on the team except for Feldman, CJ, FX2, Kinsler and Young.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
In the words of an infamous NFL owner who shall not be named
“Just Win Baby!”
by Too Legit To quit on Dec 9, 2009 9:26 PM CST via mobile reply actions
True, but I came to terms with the horrible ownership situation months ago
Can’t get riled up about it any more, so within the context I’m glad JD found a way to do something interesting that could work out nicely.
And yeah, knowing they are being solid immediately and that this situation shouldn’t exist next year helps too.
the preceding post was a great success.
Indeed
who has the JD clapping gif?
"Blister please, with those wings in your spine.
Love to be with a brother of mine.
How he'd love to find your tongue in his teeth,
In a struggle to find secret songs that you keep,
Wrapped in boxes so tight, sounding only at night as you sleep." ~Jeff Mangum; Neutral Milk Hotel
I like it
I was worried we were going to be dumping Millwood for salary relief. If we had done that and not added Harden in the same stroke then I would have had a really bad taste in my mouth.
I will still say I wish we had been able to keep Millwood around as he did have value to the team. I do find it a bit disturbing that we look like we are basically on a zero payroll addition, beyond the NRI type players.
I think this was an over all good move by JD and the FO.
What do voluntary mean?
I guess i've already come to grips
that we’re a lower tier payroll franchise. it is what it is, until it isn’t
contract details, optino for '11 is mutual
ed_price R.Harden physical tomw in Tex. Gets $6.5M in ’10, $3.5M
in inc. (up to 195 IP), $11M mutual opt for ’11 w/$1M buyout if either side declines
Was just typing that
All that spell check for nuttin’
"Listen to Ted. Trust him. If he cuts you off, switch gears and go with it." -- Shroomer
Good deal.
Although I do kinda wish we could keep him for 2011 if we wanted to.
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"It's kind of a new stat that's in vogue" - Joe Buck on OPS
The good news is that if he opts out...
he’ll probably have Type A status. Is he a Type B this offseason? I haven’t read that anywhere.
He's a Type B, and Cubs did not offer arbitration.
Pro baseball has always been a dream, so this is pretty freakin’ cool out here. -- Tim Steggall, undrafted Rangers minor leaguer.
Yeah the second I typed that I realized it didn't go with what he was saying.
Ok then, good.
the preceding post was a great success.
well, with buying out a million its pretty much 12 mil per year to him vs leaving
Its not some ultra cheap option hes a shoe in to back out of if he does decently at least.
the preceding post was a great success.
Well, that $1 million buyout is essentially guaranteed money
His base salary was first reported as $7.5 million guaranteed money, now we find out that it’s $6.5 million base + $1 million buyout. So in reality, the only difference is that we no longer have a club option.
If on the rare event that the mutual option gets exercised, then we save $1 million, but that’s probably not happening.
that might be the remaining budget for This Thing
"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan
by Dirk Diggler on Dec 9, 2009 10:11 PM CST up reply actions
Yeah I see where that thought comes from
color me skeptical
"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan
by Dirk Diggler on Dec 9, 2009 10:39 PM CST up reply actions
don't agree
A 180+ IP, TORP type of season and he chooses to walk. A major injury and teh Rangers don’t bring him back. Snything in between and both sides may agree for his return.
|Space for Rent|
I don't get the mutual option.
It seems like a good year means the pitcher doesn’t want it. A bad year means the team doesn’t want it. It basically is just a way to give Harden 1 million at the end of the season after the team is hopefully on better fiscal grounds.
What do voluntary mean?
The mutual option is probably what closed the deal
The Rangers wanted an option and Harden didn’t. You make it so you both feel good about the deal and it gets signed
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
dang
perez in the rotation in 2010?
by Smoakin in the Boys Room on Dec 9, 2009 9:45 PM CST reply actions
Ew
"Blister please, with those wings in your spine.
Love to be with a brother of mine.
How he'd love to find your tongue in his teeth,
In a struggle to find secret songs that you keep,
Wrapped in boxes so tight, sounding only at night as you sleep." ~Jeff Mangum; Neutral Milk Hotel
ugh
After Fuentes blows a save and an Angels loss to the Indians:
"Angels still in first place" - UCI Halo
"Hey you know who would have gotten those 3 outs in the 9th?
Darren O’Day." - FirebatM3
LOL
I though he agreed to a deal with KC.
"Stats are like a woman in a fine little bikini. You can see a lot, but you can't see everything." -Dirk A. Tron
Supposedly KC offered him two years.
Which doesn’t make sense to me because you figure that shit would already be announced by now if that was the case.
Yeah but
Who wants to play in KC for two years?
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"It's kind of a new stat that's in vogue" - Joe Buck on OPS
He would've signed that so freaking fast
I don’t believe they ever offered that
"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan
by Dirk Diggler on Dec 9, 2009 10:12 PM CST up reply actions
For a low contract he isn't worse than our other options
What do voluntary mean?
AJM
You’ve been on the MY contract since it was signed and were willing to give him up for anything just to dump that contract last offseason. So why is it anything but amazing that the Rangers were able to dump Millwood and his contract when he’s such a great candidate to suck next season. I really wouldn’t mind the team selling high on Millwood this offseason even if they did have money to spend.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
It's exciting to see a legitimate, potential ace come to Arlington,
but I’d prefer to have Harden AND Millwood at the top of the rotation. As Adam noted, our payroll shrinking like a nutsack in a cold shower, JUST as we’re hitting the mythical “2010” contention year, is disconcerting. I’m not as concerned as others may be about losing a guy like Millwood. Kevin is starting to decline and showed heavy fatigue towards the end of the season. He was damned near worthless down the stretch, so some of those “starts” (when comparing to missed starts by Harden) were as good (or worse) than what a spot starter would’ve produced anyways.
If Ray can come back to close to what he was before his arm injury, maybe last year’s 7th/8th inning-breathe-into-a-paper-bag-when-Jason-Grilli/Jason-Jennings-comes-in-to-face-righties-on-Feliz’s-off-days type of panic attacks will be fewer and far between.
Son, if you really want something in this life, you have to work for it. Now quiet! They're about to announce the lottery numbers. - Homer Simpson
Harden deal update
Appears to have an IP clause.
9:39pm: Ed Price of AOL FanHouse has the specifics: Harden makes $6.5MM next year, with $3.5MM in incentives based on innings pitched. The deal includes an $11MM mutual option for 2011 that includes a $1MM buyout in case either side wants to decline. So the deal, which is still pending a physical, guarantees Harden a minimum of $7.5MM
.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/
|Space for Rent|
reminded me of this
Birdie, birdie
In the sky
Why’d you do that
in my eye?
I’m a good boy
I won’t cry
Gee I’m glad
that COWS don’t fly…
|Space for Rent|
Mutual option?
Shit.
Son, if you really want something in this life, you have to work for it. Now quiet! They're about to announce the lottery numbers. - Homer Simpson
by SarasotaRanger on Dec 9, 2009 10:27 PM CST up reply actions
SI_JonHeyman one competing gm on angels’ reported offer for
#halladay of saunders, aybar & bourjos: "(jays) should take it.’’
It was probably
Dayton Moore.
I’m a white boy who doesn’t think a black man is good enough to manage my baseball team. - LSJ
"I really think that" - LSJ, on being asked by AirJordan
by FirebatM3 on Dec 9, 2009 10:32 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
CJ
I thought I heard he was gonna try to start. Personally I think he’ll be good. Did I miss some discussion of this already?
by WhiplashWhiteside on Dec 9, 2009 10:31 PM CST reply actions
CJ doesn't have enough secondary pitches to start.
Not. A. Chance.
Give me team chemistry and emotion over stats any day. Do you think 34,000 Ranger fans were screaming their asses off over Pudge and his .275 OBP?
CJJ will talk about you another day
Take a few days to clear your ego.
I'm just goofin' new boot goofin'
It's not funny.
I made a grammar error I was being intellectually dishonest with myself.
I'm just goofin' new boot goofin'
Anyone think the Rangers have a better chance
of making the playoffs today then the did yesterday?
|Space for Rent|
x
I think that the team as it stands today is more likely to make the playoffs than the team that the Rangers had yesterday.
by Adam J. Morris on Dec 9, 2009 10:35 PM CST up reply actions
That made me laugh.
Out Loud.
Give me team chemistry and emotion over stats any day. Do you think 34,000 Ranger fans were screaming their asses off over Pudge and his .275 OBP?
More importantly
I’d say we have a better chance of winning a playoff series than we did yesterday.
Neftali Feliz says sit your 5 dollar ass down before he makes change...
Hi, Keith. Is this the year Edinson Volquez finally wins RoY?
by Brian Thomas on Dec 9, 2009 10:47 PM CST up reply actions
Yeah him and Lindstrom
are a recipe for disaster. Shoulda offered Hawkins that multi-year deal. The Lastros rise again.
Ed Wade is possibly worse than Tim Purpura.
I CANNOT believe I just said that.
Remember to retire Fin's number, Mark.
Jamey said the Tigers are discussing Gerald Laird
as well as Cabrera.
Laird, AJM, what do you think. Carlos Melo and Moscoso for Laird? Seems fair, lol.
"Blister please, with those wings in your spine.
Love to be with a brother of mine.
How he'd love to find your tongue in his teeth,
In a struggle to find secret songs that you keep,
Wrapped in boxes so tight, sounding only at night as you sleep." ~Jeff Mangum; Neutral Milk Hotel
Shit, I was too busy reading the post to read the caption
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"It's kind of a new stat that's in vogue" - Joe Buck on OPS
I was in super serious mode when reading.
I didn’t see the caption.
"Blister please, with those wings in your spine.
Love to be with a brother of mine.
How he'd love to find your tongue in his teeth,
In a struggle to find secret songs that you keep,
Wrapped in boxes so tight, sounding only at night as you sleep." ~Jeff Mangum; Neutral Milk Hotel
so are mustard and pickles
I like my pickles without mustard.
less
"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan
by Dirk Diggler on Dec 9, 2009 11:07 PM CST up reply actions
You realize that your post had 1505 words, right?
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
by GhettoBear04 on Dec 9, 2009 11:15 PM CST up reply actions
It's biscuits and mustard.
And French-fried potaters. Mhhmmm- hmmm.
Look at the comments under Jeff Wilson's blog post on dallasnews.com. What a bunch of rocket scientists.- Keith Law
So...
I had a busy day today and was unable to keep up with everything as it happened. I was wise enough to record Hot Stove though and I watched it as soon as I got home.
As soon as I heard Millwood was dealt for Ray my initial reaction was disappointment. I really really wanted Hernandez. That didn’t last long though. Hearing we were not only going to get Harden, but that the deal included a option for a second year was just great. This is the kind of chance that this team needs to take. Harden could be dynamic. The idea of him in Arlington for 2 years really excites me.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
The option for the second year is mutual.
Just an FYI.
"Blister please, with those wings in your spine.
Love to be with a brother of mine.
How he'd love to find your tongue in his teeth,
In a struggle to find secret songs that you keep,
Wrapped in boxes so tight, sounding only at night as you sleep." ~Jeff Mangum; Neutral Milk Hotel
Yeah...
I just saw that.
Sucks.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
Hence the metaphor...
… almost as if planned.
Your 2009 Texas Rangers: "Can't take a fucking to save their lives" (lisa w, 2009).
and once upon a time
Millwood was a pretty good pitcher. But their time has passed.
Tuglett.
He has a big heart.
by ghostofErikThompson on Dec 9, 2009 11:18 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
Who gives a fuck.
"Nothing we do here has a point" - Czar Morris
by inactive lsb user on Dec 10, 2009 3:05 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
NOOOOOOO NOT MAX
Prelim agreement on Lowell to Tex for Max Ramirez. Red Sox owners must approve, teams must be satisfied with medicals. Red Sox eating ne …
http://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/6522415200
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"It's kind of a new stat that's in vogue" - Joe Buck on OPS
NO!
DAMNIT! I just said this was probably a Boston-generated rumor. NO NO NO!
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
by GhettoBear04 on Dec 9, 2009 11:16 PM CST up reply actions
I'd be on board if it wasn't Max
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"It's kind of a new stat that's in vogue" - Joe Buck on OPS
Yeah, I really like Max
Never Forget
I think Luke French has a lot of potential. TORP potential.-Dstar
no
"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan
by Dirk Diggler on Dec 9, 2009 11:28 PM CST up reply actions
Nope.
"Nothing we do here has a point" - Czar Morris
by inactive lsb user on Dec 10, 2009 1:43 AM CST up reply actions
"No more 1st round picks will be traded." - Tom Hicks
"Nothing we do here has a point" - Czar Morris
by inactive lsb user on Dec 10, 2009 1:43 AM CST up reply actions
That makes more sense.
For a second, I thought Rosenthal had slipped into a Monty Python movie.
Your 2009 Texas Rangers: "Can't take a fucking to save their lives" (lisa w, 2009).
Red Sox eating ne?
Your 2009 Texas Rangers: "Can't take a fucking to save their lives" (lisa w, 2009).
Nearly all his salary, I think.
I failed my LSB ethics test.
"It's kind of a new stat that's in vogue" - Joe Buck on OPS
That would be satisfying.
What do tigers dream of when they take a little tiger snooze? Do they dream of mauling zebras, or Halle Berry in her Catwoman suit?
All I want to know is how much we'd have to pay Lowell.
If BOS is eating 80% of the contract, I’m OK with it.
What do tigers dream of when they take a little tiger snooze? Do they dream of mauling zebras, or Halle Berry in her Catwoman suit?
This sucks balls
massive balls. Lowell is NOT worth MaxRam… he’s gonna have a breakout season and we’ll regret this trade very soon
Must kill Moe. Weeeeeeeee
by Baseball North on Dec 9, 2009 11:18 PM CST up reply actions
It just tells me they don't see him as a catcher
And while he may be an adequate DH thats just not that valuable. Granted we’ve had a hell of a time getting one and may not have one this year either.
the preceding post was a great success.
I've lost faith in MaxRam, but theres just not much upside to lowell
I’m not going to be hating this move all offseason, but its certainly not my preferred outcome.
the preceding post was a great success.
And if they are eating nearly all the salary..
Heh are we really not going to spend a dime past what we saved with millwood?
I’ll be watching closely what the options get.
the preceding post was a great success.
This just seems odd.
Sure, Lowell for free is a decent player. The past two years, he put up OPS’s of .798 and .811 and wOBA’s of .344 and .346. It’s not a bad hitter, but it’s not a great hitter either. I’m higher on MaxRam than most, but I think he could have given you similar numbers at the major league level towards the end of this coming year. Even if he doesn’t, this seems more like a raising the floor move than a raise the ceiling (like Harden was), and MaxRam seems a steep price to pay for that.
This suggests two things to me. First, the Rangers have plans to bring in another catcher considering Salty’s injury situation (and the rumors that are leaking out about Navarro, Kendall, etc) and not roll with Teagarden and MaxRam and an emergency option in AAA while Salty is out. Second, the Rangers are in win now mode. They leveraged their starting pitching depth to raise their No.1 starter ceiling with the Millwood-Harden swap. Now they are leveraging a decent trade piece (or late 2010 DH option) to make sure that there is a better DH/backup 1B option. If they still planned on building/developing in 2010, this move doesn’t make sense.
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
by GhettoBear04 on Dec 9, 2009 11:28 PM CST up reply actions
"this seems more like a raising the floor move than a raise the ceiling (like Harden was), and MaxRam."
Very well put.
the preceding post was a great success.
The only positive I can find
outside of the obvious salary ramifications that are driving this is that Lowell hits lefties better than righties. Assuming that will be his main use, it’s not quite the disaster my initial impression was.
2009 splits: (AB-AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS)
LH: 153-.301/.363/.503/.866
RH: 302-.285/.324/.460/.784
That’s a small sample size though. Here’s the last three years combined:
LH: 392-.314/.381/.500/.881
RH: 1061-.294/.344/.474/.818
Still, he’s a soon to be 36 y/o who will have to DH most of the time and has had some pretty significant hip issues. MaxRam seems steep; the Rangers must not value him the same way that we (I) do.
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
by GhettoBear04 on Dec 9, 2009 11:40 PM CST up reply actions
x
Lowell’s hips are made of jello so he’s basically incapable of running. We’re talking about Andruw Jones giving a piggy-back ride to Chris Davis type speed here. Not only that, but his hips will undoubtedly make him miss quite a few games.
I’m also pretty high on Max, so it makes me sad that all we could get back is Mike Lowell.
Yeah.
I still had hopes of packaging him with some of the better prospects for a TORP. BTW, there’s a new thread up about this. Main page.
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
by GhettoBear04 on Dec 9, 2009 11:48 PM CST up reply actions
Surely not.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
"Ranger players, especially veterans, weren’t surprised that Daniels couldn’t find a deal"
"Business as usual." - Tom Hicks on the Ranger off-season 11/19/09
Hmm, a MLBTR commentator posted this...
“Actually, no; no I wasnt. And you will quickly learn Harden is merely a shell of his old 5-pitch dominating self.
Re: his 2 pitches – what did those two pitches get him last season?
5.47 ERA, 1.541 WHIP and .271/.355/.493/.848 line against
After he posted that off his 2-pitch arsenal in the first half, he reintroduced his slider – the same slider which lead to his needing to be shutdown for the remainder of the season after about 50-60 innings of it. The Cubs went as far as to tell him not to throw it over his final two games, and he came out to the media and said that he is not going to be able to throw it much going forward in his career to protect his arm. Anyway, when the Cubs told him to stop, he did. 7 IP, 7 H and 8 BB later they realized the damage was already done and it was best for him to just sit."
While hes exaggerating and I know theres more to the story… if a slider was a huge pitch for him and he can’t throw it anymore that would be a bit worrying.
the preceding post was a great success.
Think about this
Look at the numbers he put up without the slider. The guy is filthy.
I think Luke French has a lot of potential. TORP potential.-Dstar
Maddux. Cutter.
Make it so.
Look at the comments under Jeff Wilson's blog post on dallasnews.com. What a bunch of rocket scientists.- Keith Law
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