Fairly unsupported suggestions to JD
by BuckyB on Feb 1, 2009 2:12 PM CST
75 comments
It's Easy:
- Trade Chris Davis + Salty + Beavan for Halladay (they need those positions, young players under contract, etc -- Who says no? Tor. has to realize that they won't be contending in that division anytime soon)
- Sign Sheets (duh)
- Sign Adam Dunn to a 1/2 yr 5-7 mil. 2 first rounder's eventually. Smoak fills the hole next year or the one after.
- Trade Blalock for someone's batboy (if Hicks is really bitching about payroll) and trade Millwood for someone's ballgirl.
- Doesn't mess up lineup bc Dunn&Davis are lefties and Dunn would annihilate in TBiA (especially with Rudy's help... he'd be a monster).
- $14 mil for Halladay + $10 M for Sheets + $6 for Dunn = + $30 M - $12 M (Millwood) - $6.5 (Blalock) = Only $11.5 M added to current payroll.
- Rotation = Halladay, Sheets, Padilla, McCarthy, Feldman
- Huge influx of draft picks over the next few years if we lose Dunn/Sheets/Halladay
- 87-90 win team?... Maybe?
Bottom line. I love Halladay and he can be turned into some valuable prospects if we aren't winning and are concerned about losing him. We could also try to negotiate an extension pre-trade. Davis is replaceable bc of Smoak and the value we can get for Dunn right now.
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No to #1
Stay the course. If the Rangers win this year excellent but don’t try to force it. If Smoak does come up next year address the situation then and get a younger cheaper pitcher under team control for a longer period of time same with Salty. That way you could see what you have in Cwun.
Sheets or bust
Damn you rotator cuff damn you!
I hate the offseason
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
agreed
The big fallacy to the above proposal is that nobdy will want Millwood and his $12M contract. Same for Blalock. Also, Davis > Dunn. imho.
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
•Doesn’t mess up lineup bc Dunn&Davis are lefties and Dunn would annihilate in TBiA (especially with Rudy’s help… he’d be a monster)
why would he be a monster? its not like rudy (or anyone) is going to teach him to not strike out?
hes gonna strike out
hes gonna hit a lot of HR
hes gonna get a lot of BB
hes gonna have a bad BA
hes gonna have a good OBP
hes much better than blalock – and worth signing especiallly if your gonna stick blalock at 1b/DC
dunn > blalock
regarding davis > dunn im not sure but thats only because dunn is a known commodity and davis is not (sophomore slump anyone?)
that said, i would LOVE to be in a position next year to have smoak/davis/dunn and roll dunn in the OF and smoak/davis at dh/1b – combine that with hamilton in the other corner and someone like borbon in CF and thats a solid group
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
why would he be a monster? its not like rudy (or anyone) is going to teach him to not strike out?
to extend on this, striking out is what hurts him the most in a couple of ways, doesnt advance runners, etc
his value comes from his OBP and his power and i dont know if that can get that much better at this stage in his career
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
No his value does not come from his OBP
His value comes from his power. Thats it. He is a slug on the basepaths. having him on base does very very little for your team other than open up the double play if it wasn’t already an option. A guy like Kinsler has value due to his OBP not Dunn
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Dusty is that you?
A guy who’s on base a lot is always valuable, no matter who it is. Now, it is true that having someone like Kinsler on base is more advantageous than Dunn, but that doesn’t mean Dunn’s OBP is worthless. C’mon.
That Gold Glove for Young was the worst thing that could have happened to Texas - now the guy really believes he's good at short. - Keith Law
A guy who’s on base a lot is always valuable, no matter who it is. Now, it is true that having someone like Kinsler on base is more advantageous than Dunn, but that doesn’t mean Dunn’s OBP is worthless. C’mon.
my thoughts in a nutshell
between power and OBP he is a good player
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
I didn't say it was worthless
And in this lineup it would be useful. But thats not where his value comes from. Im sorry but guys with no speed and who pose no threat on the basepaths are not guys who I worry about their OBP. I would rather him focus more on improving his batting average than his OBP.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
its not like the rangers are fiends on the basepaths
play station to station, play for the 3 run HR, have guys who can hit/get on base
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
How many RBIs does a walk get you?
If he kept his OBP where it was and increased his batting average by say 40 points with nothing but singles then he would be a monster because he would most likely drive in an additional 20 runs maybe more.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
if he increased his BA by 40 points he wouldnt be a FA still
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
Thus his value would be higher
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
yes
but he is what he is
if michael young raised his BA by 30 points and hit 10 more HR he wouldnt ever be moved from 3b
if gary matthews jr consistantly hit .330 he would be worth his big contract
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
Here is a hypothetical for you
Let’s say you have a guy who walks 80% of the time he is at bat, and strikes out the other 20%, he never gets a hit.
His top speed is the modern day Frank Thomas
Do you think he is valuable?
Not really
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Okay, here is another hypothetical
Suppose that walk guy has a buddy who does nothing but hit singles. He either hits a single or strikes out, and never walks. What percentage of times does he need to hit a single (or what batting average does he need) to be as valuable as the walk guy?
They both have the same speed.
To be as valuable?
I don’t know. To be as valuable as a guy who hits 0.000 probably only takes about a .250 avg. Because he will probably do more for your team with those singles than a guy will do with only walks.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
I guess it depends on...
whether the singles hitter is hitting behind the walker or another crappy singles hitter.
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
You know...
I’m kind of wondering if you’re a “parody poster,” a regular poster of this site who has an alternate userid that he uses to post the most backward-thinking, mathematically impossible posts he can think of.
"I know you're a bit dense but no, it doesn't. Obviously lying isn't a problem for me."
Nope just this one
Ive been a baseball and ranger fan all 26 years i’ve been alive. I just have a different view on the game then most I guess. Everybody has their beliefs. I don’t believe a guy like Adam Dunn helps his team most of time by walking. Its gonna take alot to change that for me.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
heres my question though
kind of from earlier answered maybe
but if a guy has the same obp as he does, but his all singles, do they have the same value?
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
All singles?
Or the increase is nothing but singles? If its only singles then no he doesn’t have the same value. Like I contend Dunns value is his power.
If you mean the increase in his current BA is nothing but singles then, to me at least, he would have more value. Because those singles would almost suredly drive in more runs than the walks he currently gets.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
That guy would likely be
the most productive player in baseball, now that Bonds is retired.
Get off my lawn.
That doesn't make much sense
A walk’s as good as a single. With his speed, he’s probably not going to hit that many more doubles than he already does (averages 29 a year). So how is improving his batting average (possibly at the cost of some OBP) going to increase his value?
That Gold Glove for Young was the worst thing that could have happened to Texas - now the guy really believes he's good at short. - Keith Law
Because on a walk runners can't advance more than one base
You’re right a single and walk are basically the same. But on a walk its one base for all. A single can get a guy from 1st to 3rd, 2nd to home, 3rd to home, etc.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
So you're saying Adam Dunn
Who averages 96 RBI per year, and has driven in over 100 runs all but twice in his career, needs to focus more on his batting average and less on his OBP so he can drive in more runs and therefore improve his value (never mind that RBI is a stupid way to equate value). Gotcha.
That Gold Glove for Young was the worst thing that could have happened to Texas - now the guy really believes he's good at short. - Keith Law
No
Im saying having Adam Dunn standing on 1st base does very little for the team if it comes from drawing a walk because that means the most any baserunner moved was 90 feet and unless the bases were loaded nobody scored. Now its up to the next guy to drive those runs in. And since most guys make outs 70-75% of the time thats not a sure thing.
If Dunn is standing on 1st base after getting a single then there is alot more chance that someone scored. If they were on 3rd base they scored. If they were on second they probably scored. If they were on first they are probably on 3rd which is easier to be driven in. Thats more valuable to me than seeing a slug like him walking to first base.
Also by putting the ball in play there is a chance that single turns into a double or a guy makes an error or a number of other things that simply do not and can not happen on a walk.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
A walk is NOT as good as a single.
That’s ridiculous.
In certain situations, yah, it’s as good as a single.
But in certain situations it’s much, much worse than a single.
Large Steve is wrong, as usual, but that doesn’t mean a walk is as good as a single.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
I hate Michael Young.
"There are no weak opinions with the dirkatron, it’s all scream-across-the-parking-lot echelon." -hightowersmith
it depends on the situation
is a walk as good as a single when there are no runners on base?
is a walk as good as a single when your losing at the end of a game?
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
Guy on 3rd base and 1 out
A walk is terrible right there. Why? Because the runner doesn’t score and now you bring the double play into play where a ground ball will most likely end the inning. Whereas a groundball by Dunn would score that run and result in him being out.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
If that's true...
…and a walk really is terrible there, wouldn’t the manager issue an intentional walk every time that situation arises?
by Adam J. Morris on Feb 1, 2009 10:09 PM CST up reply actions
ummm
a hitter’s job is to not make outs. yes, in your scenario, with the infielders playing back, btw, a groundball is better than a walk. over the course of a season, youre going to score a lot more runs with a guy who walks all the time than a guy who hits a lot of ground balls and hopes one gets through every now and then
Ummm... THAT'S WHAT I JUST SAID!
In certain situations, yah, it’s as good as a single.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
I hate Michael Young.
"There are no weak opinions with the dirkatron, it’s all scream-across-the-parking-lot echelon." -hightowersmith
"A walk’s as good as a single." -- NOT!
walk – catcher catches ball, throws ball back to pitch, runners advance one base if forced, chance of error ~<0.01%.
single – fielder must field ball and return to infield, runners advance 1 or more bases at their own risk, chance of error occuring much > than a BB.
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
Ugh.
Why in the hell are so many people so anxious to trade Davis away? Now that we finally have some pieces coming together that will provide long-term winning, we have folks coming out of the woodwork proposing that we dump them for short term solutions. Yeesh.
Adam, seriously, can Davis trade proposals start constituting an automatic one month ban or something?
+1
-- Micah
Baseball Is My Boyfriend
"Every day is a new opportunity. You can build on yesterday's success or put its failures behind and start over again. That's the way life is, with a new game every day, and that's the way baseball is." -Bob Feller
by baseballismyboyfriend on Feb 1, 2009 2:53 PM CST up reply actions
It's quite simple: If you were going to make a trade, but wanted to protect your best pitching prospects, Davis becomes your No. 1 trade chip.
You just don't know when to keep your mouth shut, do you Saxy boy?
by oc on Feb 1, 2009 4:22 PM CST up reply actions
Well
Kinsler and Hamilton probably have more trade value than Davis does. If your priority is protecting your best pitching prospects, they’d be your top trade chips.
by Adam J. Morris on Feb 1, 2009 4:58 PM CST up reply actions
yeah!
why would anyone make a suggestion to improve the pitching? Makes no sense!
"drawing walks is an overrated trait in my eyes."
"i do believe we could have 4 30 start pitchers in the rotation."
-- both these genius remarks brought to you by our resident guru, bigsteve
by tricer on Feb 2, 2009 6:07 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
You shouldn't be pretentious
Unless it’s absolutely a slam-dunk point. Now you just look like an ass.
I understand what you’re saying, but we need some pitching, and if we aren’t going to trade pitching prospects to get it, Davis has to go. It’s the only position we have besides catcher where I don’t think we’d have to set back our organization
I hardly think he sounds like an ass...
I’m also of the opinion that the Rangers shouldn’t even talk about trading Davis ‘til Smoak is ready at the earliest. Even then, I’d probably keep him as the DH.
I really think Davis is going to me a monster at the plate.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
i agree
trading davis “because smoak is in the wings” is a foolish idea to me
what if smoak has a career ending injury
or a bunch of nagging injuries over the next few years
or we get offered a ton for smoak next year
(knock on wood)
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
Your overall proposal has two significant problems.
First, it’s unrealistic. Second, in terms of long term success, it’s just dumb.
If we could con some other team into taking on the salaries of Blalock and Millwood, they would already be gone. Your idea of dumping their contracts is silly. If a team can sign Sheets short term for $10m, then why in the hell would they pay $12m for the #5 starter that Millwood has turned out to be? If a team can sign Dunn for $6m for the short term, then why in the hell would they pay $6.5m for the drop in production and health instability of Blalock? And on top of that, do you really think Hicks is going to agree to watch young cheap talent walk out the door while adding significant amounts of payroll? Really?
JD has the Rangers set up to win consistently and cheaply over the long term. He is finally being patient, making trades with an eye towards the future, and letting our home grown cheap talent develop. His two most criticized trades (Young and Danks) involved shipping out young cheap talent for players that were supposed to make us better quicker. Those were impatient moves and they blew up in our faces. And yet you are now advocating that he makes a similar trade designed to place the short term ahead of the long term. There is nothing guaranteed to derail this rebuilding plan more quickly than shifting strategy and adding short term, aging vets at the expense of young cheap talent under team control for five to six years.
I don’t like Davis trade proposals in general, but if you simply must stir the pot with one, at least come up with something that is consistent with the team’s goal of winning over the long haul.
My thought process is:
Rangers are trying to win in 2010. If we can trade/sign Halladay (one of the most consistent performing starters in the league) to have a staff along the lines of Hallday, Sheets, Feliz, Holland, yada, yada, yada for the next couple years, then not only is this consistent with the plans, but our team will be significantly better than it would have been with Davis in the lineup and Halladay not in our rotation
My proposals of dumping salary:
I’m speaking under the assumption of earlier rumors that Blalock/Millwood would be more available after the FAs have signed and possibly mid-season. Additionally, I think we’ve established that teams are scared shit-less of Sheet’s injury threat, not his salary
Let’s say you are right on Sheets and that teams are concerned about his injury situation. How does that make an overpriced, out of shape, underperforming #5 with health issues of his own more attractive at $12m?
And in response to your post above: You would be signing Sheets and getting Halladay for 2009 and 2010. If both stay healthy, when they come up for free agency after 2010 (the first year we’re really hoping to contend), you’re probably looking at having to spend $18m-$25m on each for 5 years to keep them. The odds of us winning the bidding on either of them in that scenario is remote. So you’ve given away 5+ cheap years of a guy with 40+ HR potential; 4 years of a catcher with 30+ HR power; and pitching prospect with top of the rotation talent for one contending year of Halladay. That’s a horrid return and robs the team of at least two players that we should expect to be contributing in 2011 and beyond. Accordingly, you’ve made a short term play.
Honestly, now that we are loaded with prospects, a lot of us have become like little kids that get their first allowance and we can’t wait to spend it on something rather than save it to buy something better in the future. That has been the mentality of this organization until the last couple of years and you see the track record for success it has brought us. Now is the time to hold our pieces unless and until we can secure long-term talent for them. Two years ain’t long term.
A little optimistic for the sake of your argument
Dontcha think?
I’m not worried about trading Salty, bc the club has put faith in Teagarden. Davis’s production should be matched by Dunn’s (even in your most optimistic scenario, Dunn will at least get close). And this would greatly enhance our pitching. Meanwhile, I hardly affected
And I mentioned that if you don’t think we’d be able to sign them to an extension later that we can do the trade only if we can agree to an extension first. If we can’t dump Millwood’s salary, I wouldn’t be disappointed, I think he would be a stellar 3rd starter. Maybe Hicks can just get over it?
You can’t even begin to argue that our team wouldn’t be better if we added Halladay, Sheets, and Dunn and only subtracted Davis and Salty. So you’re worried about the $? Let’s not argue over that. I would love it if Hicks spent the dough. If it doesn’t work financially, so be it.
Im just saying that I think it would be a great time to take advantage of the market
How in the hell can you have a discussion without considering the dollars?
Halladay, Sheets (if healthy), and Dunn probably make us better in 2009 and 2010. I haven’t argued to the contrary. But that move does not make us better in 2011 and beyond given the low percentage chance that we could re-sign either or both of those guys from that point forward. And Millwood would be a “stellar” 3rd starter? Really? A guy that can’t stay in shape; can’t put up an ERA under 5; and can’t give you 200+ innings would be a “stellar” 3rd starter? If he is your #5, you can probably stomach is poor performance. If he is your #3, you’re in serious trouble.
You can’t look at any of these moves in a vacuum. For your proposals to have any basis in reality, you have to consider the Hicks factor. He’s made it clear he isn’t going to be a high payroll franchise. If your ideas are made without considering the financial impact they will have, then there really isn’t much point to discussing them.
Davis is around for 6 more years right?
I was thinking about that today.
x
Davis is replaceable bc of Smoak and the value we can get for Dunn right now.
No, he’s not. Not yet. As much as I like Smoak (and I am pretty sure I’d take him over Davis if it comes down to that in a year or two) he’s not anywhere close to making Davis expendable. In fact, the way things currently stand it’s probably the other way around – but that said, I’m not for trading either of them. Not even for Halladay.
That Gold Glove for Young was the worst thing that could have happened to Texas - now the guy really believes he's good at short. - Keith Law
Oh, and I almost forgot
If you really want Ben Sheets, Dunn is not a factor for us right now, and probably never will be.
That Gold Glove for Young was the worst thing that could have happened to Texas - now the guy really believes he's good at short. - Keith Law
Expendable in that:
1) For the present: Dunn will match or better Davis’s numbers for the next couple years
2) If you’re worried about the future: Smoak is as close to a sure thing in scouts’ eyes, it seems, as you can get. He has the exact hype that Teixeira had.
x
Smoak is as close to a sure thing in scouts’ eyes, it seems, as you can get. He has the exact hype that Teixeira had.
No, he’s not, and no, he doesn’t.
Teixeira was considered a transcendent talent, one of the two best players in a draft that had two of the most highly regarded college players ever coming out.
Smoak is considered a top prospect, but he’s not a top 10 in baseball guy, and he’s not considered the same sort of prospect Teixeira was at the time.
by Adam J. Morris on Feb 2, 2009 11:04 AM CST up reply actions
+1
the hype on teix out of college was way more
teix was a better college player IIRC
and regarding “sure thing” – no. there isnt really on the list now that price is gone imho
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
Not to mention
So you trade Davis on this premiss and what happens if Smoak has a career ending injury? Now you have what?
Sheets or bust
Damn you rotator cuff damn you!
1B is not the most difficult position to fill
What if Davis has a career ending injury? Then we missed the opportunity to trade him at his highest value. You can honestly shoot down every single suggestion anyone throws out with that argument.
You are right
1b that can hit like Davis, Tex, Pujols etc. are a dime a dozen. If Davis has a career ending injury then we have a very good player in Smoak.
Sorry I think you stay the course with what is coming up. That has been the problem for years now not staying with something. Now on the other hand if you are in a race like the Brewers were last year then it might be a different story.
Sheets or bust
Damn you rotator cuff damn you!
lol
I give up. Go ahead and look out that window there are GM’s walking around everywhere. Go ahead if you think you can find a 1b that will produce like Davis for his price go for it. I don’t think Dunn is a good fit for his price on this team.
Did you even read the rest of the post or just cherry pick that first paragraph?
Sheets or bust
Damn you rotator cuff damn you!
No offense intended
Just,
You can’t make choices out of fear of career-ending injuries to your first basemen (that almost never happens, pitchers are another story).
Your staying-the-course argument is completely fair (and smart). Your arguments are just so exaggerated for the sake of your point. Saying that Salty is a 30+ hr catcher is a little premature and if that was guaranteed, I don’t think we’d trade him. Davis is not in a group with those two (not even close, yet… he has 17 home runs in his career).
I just don’t think we’d be far off the course, bc we wouldn’t have traded any of our top 10 prospects and would still fill 1B and C very nicely over the next 10 years. $ is all we lose and our team is dramatically better.
I agree to a certain extent
I would rather have JD than Hart. JD is not afraid to pull the trigger but he is learning to show some restraint at the same time unlike his first few trades where he was in a win now mode and made some bad trades.
Sheets or bust
Damn you rotator cuff damn you!
Nope...
Davis >>> Dunn.
And much cheaper.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
Would rather do this
Trade Salty, Blalock and Beaven for Halladay… or the same package for a Marlins starter or to Giants for Sanchez or to Pirates for Snell.
Lets start Teagarden at C, MaxRam is backup C/backup 1B and DH. That’s IT!
If you want MaxRam getting time in AAA, THEN sign Manny for ONE year to protect Hamilton.
Sign Sheets and look for July trading partners for Millwood and Padilla. The salary you shed for Millwood & Padilla will pay for Manny, can be used for future contract for Halladay or (if we don’t get Halladay) can be earmarked for long-term deals to our young kids.
I could handle a rotation of: Sheets, Millwood, Padilla, Snell and Harrison to start… then by August 1st you have a rotation of Sheets, Snell, Harrison, Holland and McCarthy, Hunter or Feliz… whomever shows something in the first half.
Then the lineup would be: Kinsler, Young, Hamilton, Manny, Byrd, Murphy/Cruz, Davis, Andrus and Teagarden.
Go Cubbies and Go Rangers!
Halladay...
would cost a lot more than Salty, Blalock, and Beavan.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
thank you
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
Whatever.
Thats why I included THREE OTHER DESTINATIONS. Jeez. I was building off of the earlier post and substituting players that wouldn’t hurt the Rangers now OR in 2010.
We win the West in 09 AND stay the course for 2010 and beyond with the entirety of the idea.
You’re welcome.
Go Cubbies and Go Rangers!
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