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Wednesday a.m. stuff

Jeff Wilson runs down the non-roster players in Surprise, breaking down their chances of making the Opening Day roster.  Wilson lists four players -- Elvis Andrus, Omar Vizquel, Eddie Guardado, and Derrick Turnbow -- in the "best bets" category, with Andruw Jones and Jason Jennings, among others, in the "50/50" category.  He seems surprisingly bullish on Jennings, who he says will pitch in the majors this year, and could well be on the Opening Day roster.

I've said this before on Jennings, but if -- and it is a huge if -- but if he is healthy and back to where he was before 2007, he's a solid LAIE, and would have value for the Rangers.

Jon Daniels says that even with the addition of Jones, the most likely scenario is David Murphy playing left field, Josh Hamilton center, and Nelson Cruz right, with Marlon Byrd backing up all three slots. 

T.R. Sullivan has a story on this being a make or break year for Ron Washington, with the Rangers holding an option for 2010 on his services, but having not exercised it yet.

Richard Durrett sets the over/under on Ranger wins in 2009 at 79, which doesn't seem unrealistic.  I can't find any Vegas over/under totals yet, but if someone has them and can link them, that would be great.

Mike Hindman, like me, is baffled as to why David Murphy is perceived at being so much better for left field than Marlon Byrd.  The one thing that I think could be a factor is service time...given that Byrd is a free agent after the season, and Murphy is under team control for five more years, it may be that the Rangers would rather give Murphy more playing time because he may be part of the future.

 

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I'm....

cautiously optimistic about Jennings this year. I think he could really surprise.

by bdavison94 on Feb 11, 2009 10:06 AM CST reply actions  

Jennings might be able to do what Ponson did last year minus the craziness

He’ll start the season in the minors but get called up after things start going to hell and then can be surprisingly productive.

By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw

by Gdawg on Feb 11, 2009 10:12 AM CST up reply actions  

As were people last yr

before his debacle. He needs to pitch well in ST and for his first 4 weeks in AAA before I even consider him an option.

by Goyogringo on Feb 11, 2009 10:51 AM CST up reply actions  

well...

I’m not looking for front of the rotation stuff. I’m looking for him to be a decent innings eater. Something this club has lacked for years. Again, cautiously optimistic.

As for last year, yes a lot of people said the same things but has now had surgery to repair the damage as opposed to last ST.

by bdavison94 on Feb 11, 2009 11:04 AM CST up reply actions  

Even with that

he was able to post some nice FIPs throughout his time in Colorado with some flashes of being a much better pitcher than that. As Adam said, he could be a very nice LAIE as long as he’s healthy.

By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw

by Gdawg on Feb 11, 2009 11:04 AM CST up reply actions  

I would say there's a 1-5% chance he's even that good.

He’s had major elbow problems for two solid seasons now. After his first 200+ inning season, he then fell off by 80 innings (granted, it was a finger injury). He followed that up with a 90 inning increase that basically killed his elbow. And it looks like it was possibly a permanent effect of that 1 good season. The chances of him eating innings at a 4.50 ERA is really 1 in 20 at best.

by Andy Seiler on Feb 11, 2009 6:51 PM CST up reply actions  

This 25 just ain’t changing much. Elvis, maybe, and some bullpen turnover.

Go Strangers.

by hightowersmith on Feb 11, 2009 10:12 AM CST reply actions  

Couple of things

That OF JD says is most likely is pretty damn good. And I think service time is a huge reason why Murphy is the official starter in LF (though I still think Byrd gets a lot of playing time there). Murphy this season will prove one way or another this season whether he is a platoon player or regular starter.

And another terrible start for the Rangers and wash is probably going to be canned. After last season’s slow start and near-firing of Wash, I can’t see him surviving another one.

By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw

by Gdawg on Feb 11, 2009 10:16 AM CST reply actions  

heres a question

if they fire him (and i hope they do, ron washington is just not a playoff -caliber manager) who do they replace him with?

i would think (hope) bobby v would be near the topof that list, right?

Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.

by knockoutking on Feb 11, 2009 10:24 AM CST up reply actions  

No idea

I would guess that they would go internally first and go with Jackie Moore for the rest of the season. After that, I have no clue.

By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw

by Gdawg on Feb 11, 2009 10:26 AM CST up reply actions  

hmm

i wonder if you can demote wash to 3b coach lol iirc he was a pretty good one in OAK…heh

Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.

by knockoutking on Feb 11, 2009 10:31 AM CST up reply actions  

Probably not

After the Showalter experience, I think Daniels hired Washington because he wanted someone who would be more pliable and do what the front office wanted.

Bobby V. isn’t that type.

by Adam J. Morris on Feb 11, 2009 10:36 AM CST up reply actions  

So you believe JD

was on board with all those ab’s that Sammy Sosa took against RH pitching and Gerald Laird getting starts in 39 of the last 53 games?

I was kind of hoping Wash was making those calls himself and that JD wasn’t THAT stupid.

"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."

by Josey Wales on Feb 11, 2009 10:41 AM CST up reply actions  

Bobby V

I don’t see him managing again here either. I know it’s a long time removed, but after what he did to Witt and Correa, I’m not sure I’d want him anywhere near Holland, Feliz, and the rest of the young pitching we have coming up.

"I dont care to debate with a troll." - Sharky

by RCCook on Feb 11, 2009 10:48 AM CST up reply actions  

Didn't Correa do some of that to himself?

I remember hearing about him pitching for his country in the Winter Leagues – same with Guzman (and they both had arm problems).

How did Bobby V do with young pitchers in NY?

"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."

by Josey Wales on Feb 11, 2009 10:53 AM CST up reply actions  

Correa

He may have- and I’ve also heard that the White Sox weren’t exactly careful with him either prior to his trade to Texas.

As for Valentine in New York, he didn’t break in many young pitchers at all during his time there. Here are the guys I’d classify as “young” pitchers who were on his teams and threw a decent number of innings:

Glendon Rusch, Octavio Dotel, Bruce Chen, Grant Roberts, Mike Bacsik, Paul Wilson, Jason Isringhausen, and Bill Pulsipher.

Wilson, Izzy, and Pulsipher were fairly damaged already when Valentine took over from Dallas Green, but even so, that’s not a really inspiring group there.

"I dont care to debate with a troll." - Sharky

by RCCook on Feb 11, 2009 11:18 AM CST up reply actions  

If you apply tangotiger's methodology...

…for estimating pitch counts to Correa’s games in 1986, there are some ridiculous numbers, particularly for a 20 year old.

And go look at Bobby Witt’s pitch counts. Look at 1988, for example, when Witt missed part of the year with an injury:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/gl.cgi?n1=wittbo01&t=p&year=1988

Witt throws 151 pitches in a meaningless game in the last day of the season.

Bobby V. was an abuser of young arms.

by Adam J. Morris on Feb 11, 2009 11:54 AM CST up reply actions  

AJM, are you applying what we now know about

pitchers that may have not been known or utilized 22 years ago?

Tom House presented himself as this bookish know-everything there is to know pitching guru (Nolan loved him and still does) and I would assume everything Correa, Guzman and Witt did came with his blessings.

"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."

by Josey Wales on Feb 11, 2009 12:17 PM CST up reply actions  

right

but do they go with someone like moore or someone who is more “proven”?

Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.

by knockoutking on Feb 11, 2009 10:57 AM CST up reply actions  

Honestly,

I think Wash was brought back mainly because expectations are low for this season and Hicks does not see the value in paying for 3 managers this season (he’s still paying for Buck and Wash was extended this year by JD in ’07).

If it’s determined that Washington needs to be fired early on, they’ll go to an inexpensive interim that’s on the staff right now or within their minor league system.

"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."

by Josey Wales on Feb 11, 2009 11:02 AM CST up reply actions  

I would assume that they would go after someone more proven.

If only because the Washington experiment would have failed so badly. The problem is, there’s not a whole lot of “proven” guys who are also available.

Bobby V. isn’t leaving Japan anytime soon, methinks. He’s a god over there.

My 2009 New Years Resolution: Quit feeding the trolls.

by ghtd36 on Feb 11, 2009 11:07 AM CST up reply actions  

I thought I read where Bobby V

has a contract thru this year and is open to coming back to the states.

"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."

by Josey Wales on Feb 11, 2009 11:23 AM CST up reply actions  

yea same here

said he was interested in it IIRC

Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.

by knockoutking on Feb 11, 2009 11:35 AM CST up reply actions  

The Hindman/baffled link goes to the Worsh article.

The moves being made are too extra for my taste.

by shroomer on Feb 11, 2009 10:34 AM CST reply actions  

I still think

Byrd gets dealt to a team that needs help in CF sometime between now and July. The Yanks and White Sox could work…unfortunately those are two GMs who I consider to be better at evaluating talent than JD, so caution is advised.

by clark on Feb 11, 2009 10:35 AM CST reply actions  

haha

yeah, I initially typed sometime in spring training, but then I hedged by bet. I just think he is too much of an asset to keep around the entire year as a 4th OF when he is good enough to start in most team’s OF.

If 2009 is really about identifying the right guys for our big run in 2010 and beyond, then guys like Byrd and Blalock should be dealt and younger guys should play. The market for Byrd should be there now, but Blalock will have to have a strong first half to have any value.

by clark on Feb 11, 2009 10:51 AM CST up reply actions  

I'm no mathematician

and I don’t have a calendar in front of me…but I’m pretty sure there’s only about 4 1/2 months between now and July.

Purgatory's kind of like the in-betweeny one. You weren't really shit, but you weren't all that great either. Like Tottenham.

by TheJeezus on Feb 11, 2009 10:53 AM CST up reply actions  

Murphy, Hamilton, Cruz....

Luv It.

Well……actually I worry about wear and tear on Hamilton in center, but it’ll work until Borbon gets here and Byrd is traded.

Washington…… I love the guy as a person, but I can’t wait until he is removed from his duties.

t ball on MY - "hate the contract, don't hate the player"

by b.pate on Feb 11, 2009 10:44 AM CST reply actions  

Washington…… I love the guy as a person, but I can’t wait until he is removed from his duties.

my viewpoint almost to a T

Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.

by knockoutking on Feb 11, 2009 10:58 AM CST up reply actions  

Washington was very, very popular in Oakland

and that’s one of his biggest problems.

People (and his players) like him but they don’t respect him.

"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."

by Josey Wales on Feb 11, 2009 11:03 AM CST up reply actions  

I've read that his problem is actually

that he has steered away from the coach he was in Oakland and has become more pessimistic about players. I can’t remember which article it was, but it was basically saying that in Texas, Wash has been concentrating too much on what players can’t do and has based his decisions off of that while in Oakland, he was always helping the players do the best that they could and not worrying so much about their faults.

By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw

by Gdawg on Feb 11, 2009 11:07 AM CST up reply actions  

if you remember where you

read this, please link it here.

"A good start would be not giving up 900 runs again." -Jon Daniels

by Randy Richardson on Feb 11, 2009 2:24 PM CST up reply actions  

I guessed it was an Evan Grant piece and got lucky in the Google search

Its an Evan Grant mailbag

Ron Washington was hired based on his positive attitude and ability to motivate people. The Rangers had just gone through four years with a manager who was an excellent game-planner and strategist but was unable to relate to his players. The Rangers assumed they were getting a manager who would be off-the-charts on the positive side when it came to relating to players and who would need some help as he got used to managing for the first time.

Where Washington has struggled unexpectedly is in the motivational role. Often when coaches are elevated to managers for the first time, they get more involved in player evaluation (i.e., determining what a player can’t do) than in boundless optimism. Look, a little of both is good. You have to know how to best put a player in the best position to succeed. And to do that, you have to take into account those things he can do and those he can’t.

Washington’s “malady” isn’t uncommon and isn’t incurable. But as he grows as a manager, he must re-acquire some of that boundless optimism. If he does that with a better understanding of what his players can and can’t do, he’ll also become a better game strategist. Right now, I’d put him in the middle of the pack among major league managers when it comes to motivation, in the bottom third in game management and in the bottom half overall. I think there is still plenty of room for him to grow, and the Rangers believe he will.

In hiring Jackie Moore as Washington’s bench coach, the Rangers believe they will give Washington a stronger base of knowledge to draw from than he had with Art Howe.

By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw

by Gdawg on Feb 11, 2009 4:28 PM CST up reply actions  

3rd paragraph

seems spot on to me.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Feb 11, 2009 6:23 PM CST up reply actions  

I had read this before.

It would have been better if Grant could have given some examples. Seems very vague – off the top of his head kind of stuff.

I see Washington as being uber-positve. I’d actually like to see him call out a player or the entire team once in a while.

"A good start would be not giving up 900 runs again." -Jon Daniels

by Randy Richardson on Feb 11, 2009 7:40 PM CST up reply actions  

I can think of some examples of this

For instance the whole situation with Laird to start his career. Plus it seems like he does this all the time with the young pitchers. I remember there were at least a few times this past season where Feldman and Harrison got pulled too early when Millwood or Padilla would have been able to stay in the game. And how many times did we see Jamey Wright last season when there were other young pitchers available to go.

By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw

by Gdawg on Feb 11, 2009 11:40 PM CST up reply actions  

re Murphy Hamilton Cruz

It seems Brandon Boggs is the odd man out, ignoring what Andruw may do to get a job. I don’t dislike Murphy in any way, but isn’t Boggs the best LF defender among the mix? For some reason I’d like to see him in LF, albeit he’s an uncertain bat.

"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)

by Ed Coffin on Feb 11, 2009 12:16 PM CST up reply actions  

I'm also a fan of Brandon Boggs.

I’m not sure how successful he will be but I like smart ballplayers and I’d like to see this kid at least get a chance. As soon as he showed signs of starting to “get it” last year, Washington showed him the bench.

A year in AAA so a spare with no upside like Byrd plays instead or a has been like Jones comes here for a year to bump up his value doesn’t really seem to be congruent with what is supposed to be going on in Arlington.

"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."

by Josey Wales on Feb 11, 2009 12:21 PM CST up reply actions  

As much as I am a fan of Murphy's...

I did enjoy watching Boggs play last year once Murphy got hurt. As soon as a run was on 3B, I would pray for a flyout to LF just so I could see Boggs gun the guy down at the plate.

Dangit… Ed, now I’m not sure who I want in LF.

t ball on MY - "hate the contract, don't hate the player"

by b.pate on Feb 11, 2009 2:03 PM CST up reply actions  

I DEFINITELY want to see playing time for Brandon Boggs.

As I’ve pointed out before, his expected BABIP was outrageous and far beyond what he actually put up. That’s a huge sign to me that a guy was unlucky and deserves a chance to show how good he can be.

And yes, he’s probably our most skilled corner outfielder (and I think he might be our most skilled outfielder period), and he’s a switch hitter. All that with the offense it seems he may have been capable of without poor luck as a rookie, and I think he could be a very, very nice piece. Not just a compliment, but a legit every day starter. And I want him to have a chance to prove he is or isn’t.

And while I’m fine with giving Murphy that same chance, I think there are fewer question marks around Murphy.

by philkid3 on Feb 11, 2009 4:42 PM CST up reply actions  

i'd like to see Madrigal

get more time closing in AAA. Otherwise he will just be a MR on the staff. If that happens then then I see Turnbow making what should be an 8-man bulllpen until a fifth starter is needed. I think Rupe is sent down when the staff is pared down to 7. So, initially, I see the bullpen shaking out like this: FranFran, CJ, Donnelly, Guardado, Rupe, Eyre, Nippert, Turnbow.
I like the depth at AAA that this arrangement leaves us since we have little appreciable depth in decent starters: Madrigal, Garr, Laughter, Torres, Mathis, Gabbard, (Bannister, Ballard or Hyatt).

I guess if a starter went down Nippert would get first dibs, with Jennings, Holland and Gabbard getting second dibs. If Holland has a nice spring training, I’d rather see him up first over anyone else including Nippert.

by Goyogringo on Feb 11, 2009 10:45 AM CST reply actions  

You could be right, but...

Obviously injuries are a big question. The thing that I have a hard time imagining with this scenario is that the Rangers are going to find three spots on the 40-Man Roster for Brendan Donnelly, Eddie Guardado, and Derrick Turnbow. Even with the spots that will be created when Joaquin Benoit and Eric Hurley are put on the 60-Day Disabled List, I think it’d be a stretch, especially since there’s a good chance that a spot or two will probably go to a guy(s) from the group of non-roster position player invites that will include Omar Vizquel, Elvis Andrus, and Brian Jordan.

One name that I see you didn’t mention is Luis Mendoza. Do you see him getting designated for assignment?

Blagojevich/Stevens in 2012: Hey, Nobody's Perfect

by YourNameHere on Feb 11, 2009 12:37 PM CST up reply actions  

Ooops...

I meant Andruw Jones, not Brian Jordan.

Blagojevich/Stevens in 2012: Hey, Nobody's Perfect

by YourNameHere on Feb 11, 2009 12:40 PM CST up reply actions  

Speaking of left field

and coming out of it.

David Murphy makes the allstar team.

Also Bobby Abreu just signed with the angels

by SaltyGoesYard on Feb 11, 2009 10:55 AM CST reply actions  

Cue Vincent Vega...

…“That’s a bold statement.”

We couldn't have known it at the time but we definitely killed the wrong Belushi brother.

by Chad Crudup on Feb 11, 2009 11:21 AM CST up reply actions  

David Murphy makes the All-Star Game...

The same day I convince my wife that it was she that gave me Genital Herpes.

Blagojevich/Stevens in 2012: Hey, Nobody's Perfect

by YourNameHere on Feb 11, 2009 1:51 PM CST up reply actions  

I can see him making the All-Star game.

I could see him leading the league in doubles and having so many RBIs he gets in.

Whether he’d deserve it or not is another question. . .

by philkid3 on Feb 11, 2009 4:37 PM CST up reply actions  

yeah

a ranger isn’t getting in with a bunch of doubles when we are talking about the AL OF

"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."

by ab03 on Feb 11, 2009 5:08 PM CST up reply actions  

Keith Law has post up on the spring's first big scouting event:

link

"It doesn't look like he's trying. It kinda pisses me off," "He could throw 110 if he tried. The way it explodes out of his hand is really something special." ~ B-Mac on Feliz.

by Kinslerhomer on Feb 11, 2009 1:00 PM CST reply actions  

Strasburg

Law’s blurb is insane. Sitting 97-100 with a plus-plus curve. I didn’t even know he threw a curve; I thought he was a fb/sl/cu guy.

I’ll shit my pants if he falls to a.s

by LiamP on Feb 11, 2009 1:51 PM CST up reply actions  

Murphy = Old Head & Shoulders Commercial

“You never get a second chance to make a first impression.”

People’s first impression with Murphy was so amazingly good that a lot of people still equate him to his first run with the Rangers when he was batting an unsustainable .340/.382/.534.

Therefore, people still expect him to have the potential to be that player for the full year even though it’s extremely unlikely to happen.

R

by Requiem on Feb 11, 2009 2:45 PM CST reply actions  

Couple of reasons

1) It was only a random week in the middle of a season. Murphy was “high-profile acquistion” for Gagne, who tore it up for a month and a half.

2) Murphy didn’t descend into suckitude after the “first impression” ended.

3) Fans had a whole off-season to contemplate the “goodness of Murphy” and the hype rose accordingly.

That’s my hypothesis at least.

R

by Requiem on Feb 11, 2009 3:39 PM CST reply actions   1 recs

Bleh

That was supposed to be a reply to FuturePants.

The “Post a Comment” right below the post you want to respond to doesn’t help matters.

R

by Requiem on Feb 11, 2009 3:41 PM CST up reply actions  

I think a lot of what hurt Boggs

…as far as numbers, not popularity, was that Washington seemingly hated playing the dude. I think we should have just sent him down if he’s only going to get 10 PAs per week.

by FuturePants on Feb 11, 2009 3:48 PM CST up reply actions  

O/U thoughts

dickie durrett cited mcmahon’s earlier thread when he made his prediction which cited baseball prospectus predictions.

that site had the rangers going 73-89 which is more realistic IMO.

the team is notably worse than last year before the start of the season, the manager is still in place and presumably still ineffective, there will be no fan support at the ballpark…

by sam in so cal on Feb 11, 2009 3:42 PM CST reply actions  

"it may be that the Rangers would rather give Murphy more playing time because he may be part of the future."

I think that’s exactly it. And, while I don’t want him on a long leash, I have no problem with it to start the year.

That said, I do think we have a pretty good idea of what Murphy is capable of. I don’t think he needs a whole lot of at-bats to prove himself and I also don’t think he’s going to show anything we don’t already know. But, it’s worth finding out.

by philkid3 on Feb 11, 2009 4:35 PM CST reply actions  

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