Baseball Prospectus Impact Rookies (Elvis Andrus)
by philkid3 on Feb 11, 2009 8:15 PM CST
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PrintNifty BP article about what PECOTA thinks of a handful of rookies. A good read. It highlights Tommy Hanson, Adam Miller, Colby Rasmus, David Price, Cameron Maybin and Elvis Andrus. It also highlights how well it did on a few impact rookies last season.
Here's the Andrus excerpt (and you should read the whole thing if you can):
Elvis Andrus, SS, Rangers
PECOTA Says: .247/.299/.332 in 586 PA with 4 HR, 38 BB, 119 K
What PECOTA Doesn't Know: In this case, it's what PECOTA does know. Andrus' performances are always mitigated by his youth, and while he's always been among the youngest players at every level he's played at, he's also shown nothing more than an ability to hit first-pitch fastballs all over the field, which produces a good batting average but nearly nothing by way of power or patience. Throw in amazing defensive skills but a penchant for sloppy errors, and as weird as it might sound, Rangers fans should be glad that Omar Vizquel is around.
Baseball Official: "I think this projection is right on... He's never really dominated anywhere, and I think he's overrated... Between being one of the big prizes of the Teixeira trade and the Michael Young move to third, there's a lot of pressure on this kid."
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PECOTA's projection for Andrus
is better than Vizquels last two years, but Rangers fans should be glad that Vizquel is around? Not sure if they meant Vizquel as mentor or Vizquel as a better option.
"A good start would be not giving up 900 runs again." -Jon Daniels
by Randy Richardson on Feb 11, 2009 8:47 PM CST reply actions
Huh?
Vizquel’s equivilents the last two years:
.250/.313/.326
.295/.361/.391
Those look better to me, though that’s without looking at anything more scientific like EqA or VORP. And I think they’re factoring defense as well.
I don’t think it’s guaranteeing Vizquel will be better than Andrus, it’s saying he’s more of a dependable thing.
I was comparing PECOTA's
‘09 projection for Andrus versus Vizquel’s actual performance the past two years. Is that not how I should go about it? I’d actually be fine with what PECOTA projects for Andrus. And I’m on board with having Vizquel as back-up plan and/or mentor.
"A good start would be not giving up 900 runs again." -Jon Daniels
by Randy Richardson on Feb 11, 2009 9:02 PM CST up reply actions
Remember that Vizquel played in an extreme pitchers' park.
And those should be Andrus’s park-neutral projections up there (I know for the 2007 rookies they put up park-neutral projections). That’s the best way to compare it.
That said, I put up Vizquel’s 06 and 07 seasons, not his 07 and 08 seasons. I keep forgetting the PECOTA cards haven’t been updated.
I presume that the historical Pecota
projections are still subscription only? Do you happen to know anywhere that I can fine the Chone projections for 2007? All the links are inactive…
http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/1416679/top_5_rookie_shortstops_fantasy_baseball.html?cat=14
- Rookie Shortstops – Fantasy Baseball 2009: Elvis Andrus, Texas Rangers
Elvis Andrus is the Texas Rangers, rookie shortstop-secret weapon, although he won’t be a secret too much longer. Not only will Andrus be the Rangers starting shortstop this season, the Texas coaching staff asked five-time All-Star, Michael Young to move to third base to accommodate Andrus’ position in their starting lineup. Last season with the Rangers double-A affiliate, the Frisco Rough Riders, Andrus had a tremendous year hitting .295 with 4 homers, 65 runs batted-in, 19 doubles, 2 triples, 38 base on-balls, 82 runs scored and 142 hits in 482 at-bats. Andrus’ most eye-popping ’08 statistic was his incredible 54 stolen bases in 118 games.
Elvis Andrus possesses blazing speed along with a solid contact hitting approach at the plate and will only get better and better with time. Andrus should put together a fine year at short for Texas as they have already given him the green light toward success.
2009 Prediction for Elvis Andrus: .282 average, 6 HR, 49 RBI, 80 runs, 24 doubles, 55 base on-balls and 59 stolen bases in 137 games.
I put more stock in these guys. Because they said Andrus would do better. I’m very scientific.
Andrus has about
a none percent chance of drawing 55 walks in 2009.
"A good start would be not giving up 900 runs again." -Jon Daniels
by Randy Richardson on Feb 11, 2009 8:57 PM CST up reply actions
Goldstein is the Andrus hater right?
or is it Borbon?
I don't know that Goldstein is an Andrus hater.
He had him a four star prospect last year and, I believe, in his top 50 (I know he was in the top 100).
I know he thinks he’s overrated because people focus a lot on his speed and anecdotal evidence of being a good fielder and gloss over his horrendous patience. He’s high on him as a prospect, just not as high on him as people who slobber over tools are. And I agree with that.
Sickels hated Borbon last year.
He’s a lot higher on him now. And he likes Andrus.
by Andy Seiler on Feb 11, 2009 10:02 PM CST up reply actions
So you don't slobber over tools
I guess that’s a good thing.
by robert_d_wilfong on Feb 11, 2009 10:57 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
It's how he finishes
that counts. I don’t mind those totals too much as long as he improves over the course of the season. He could end up have an OPS > .725 in the 2nd half. Would that be acceptable?
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
That's one thing.
Kahrl is more guilty of in than Goldstein, but I don’t have a whole lot of concern about how the Rangers do this season if they’re doing better for 2011. When in doubt, put your best foot forward to win now, but as far as playing Andrus, I’m not worried about him costing us games in May because I’m not worried about contending this season.
If I thought we had a real chance, I definitely would not want him playing, no matter how well he finishes.
Jose Reyes
was a lot more polished defensively when he was at Andrus’ current stage of development in the minors, but could you make a case for Andrus seeming to be in lock-step with Reyes’ pace of development hitting-wise?
Their A-level numbers compare favorably, while Andrus circa 2008 in Frisco bears a striking resemblance to Reyes circa 2002.
ht_p://mets.scout.com/2/64619.html
The next year Reyes was promoted to AAA and hit well enough that he was called up a month before the trade deadline and ended up acquitting himself quite nicely. Maybe Andrus will be able to do the same. If his bat is where Reyes’ was in ‘03, perhaps he polishes his D for the first third or half of the season and gets called up not just because of his D but also because the confidence is there that he won’t embarrass himself at the plate.
"I think an eating contest is really just the beginning of a shitting contest."
- Demetri Martin
by Rangerchick on Feb 11, 2009 11:12 PM CST up reply actions
I often think of Andrus as a poor-man's Reyes.
But I dont’ look in to it that intensely.
The comparison Goldstein seems to be fond of us Edgar Renterria. For a couple reasons I don’t see that, but I also don’t know as much as he does. If that ends up being right, I’d take it. Easily.
as long as it comes with a world series winning hit
and he ends up on the SI cover
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Feb 12, 2009 8:13 AM CST up reply actions
you know
i fall for the whole, “says a baseball official:….” as if that is some extra validation but the truth is, you can probably find some scout somewhere to tell you what you want to hear.
Something about this quote struck me as particularly useless.
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
I agree.
Although, knowing the way Goldstein operates, I assume he was quoting someone whose opinion on the subject he’s come to respect. To his credit.
Or just picked the quote he thought was most interesting. Either way, still kind’ve useless, but meh.
I can definitely see
PECOTA being dead on for this year. Hopefully, the Rangers start off with him in AAA for a month or 2.
Get off my lawn.
So, I was working with the projections, and they were just barely better than PECOTA.
But then I realized I didn’t give the hitters enough plate appearances in such a ridiculous offense. So I adjusted that and we were .500!
. . then I realized I was giving them base running wins instead of base running runs. . .
:(
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