Beyond the Boxscore Chat and the Rangers
by philkid3 on Feb 11, 2009 11:31 PM CST
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PrintHere's all the discussion from the second Beyond the Boxscore chat on the Rangers. The full transcript is in there, there's a lot of interesting stuff.
I would DEFINITELY take the over on Davis hitting 22 home runs. I would be unsurprised if he has a below league average season, but I do think the homers are going to be there.
The Kinsler prediction makes me happy.
[Comment From Joe]
Do any of Brandon Boggs' numbers suggest anything more than a reserve outfielder with Texas?Sky Kalkman: With Texas this year? Sure. But they're loaded in the OF. Can I plug my man-love for Nelson Cruz again?
[Comment From Kurt]
Off the top of your head, what hitter do you think is most likely to blow out all of their projections for 2009?Graham Goldbeck: @Kurt: Ian Kinsler
Sky Kalkman: I'll say it again... Nelson Cruz. Minor League track record, MLB experience, a likely starting job, and a nice park for hitters.
[Comment From devil_fingers]
Are you trying to stick it to BP by scheduling your chat simultaneously with Kahrl's?Sky Kalkman: No comment. Although we'll recognize her chats when she starts returning our emails...
R.J. Anderson: Or stops saying stupid stuff.
[Comment From Bud]
Chris Davis hits ________ home runs in 2009.Sky Kalkman: 22. He's a rookie, be realistic.
Graham Goldbeck: @ Bud 17
wait no 2 x 17 = 34, 34 HRChris Quick (xanthan): I'll say 30
R.J. Anderson: Bill James says 40. wow.
R.J. Anderson: Bill James projections, rather
Chris Quick (xanthan): Bill James' projections are terrible
[Comment From Tex]
Who's more valuable from a long-term prospective: Saltalamacchia, Teagarden, or Ramirez?Sky Kalkman: Don't trust my judgment on this one, but it's gotta be Teagarden or Ramirez, the guys who can actually catch.
Chris Quick (xanthan): I thought it was disputable that Ramirez could make it as a C?
Chris Quick (xanthan): I'll say Salty...because his last name is cool.
Graham Goldbeck: I would say Teagarden he OPSed like 1700 last year didn't he?
[Comment From devil_fingers]
I think Max-Ram's glove is even more questionable that Salty's, Sky... correct me if I'm wrong, anyoneSky Kalkman: I stand corrected. Told you not to trust me.
Chris Quick (xanthan): Yeah, Ramirez is iffy behind the plate by most reports.
[Comment From devil_fingers]
I think the Rangers should decide by NickName Upside: Salty, MaxRam, and Teabag are all great possibilitiesChris Quick (xanthan): Teabag is a terrible nickname!
R.J. Anderson: If he ever gets caught with roids: "Teabag in hot water"
[Comment From devil_fingers]
Al West winner?Graham Goldbeck: OAKLAND
Sky Kalkman: Don't know, but I'll predict three teams within three games of each other in the low 80s (all but Seattle). Just not for money.
Chris Quick (xanthan): I'll say the A's.
Graham Goldbeck : The Rangers MaxRam Salty Teabag catchers.
Best long-term catcher?
Teagarden
( 58% )
Salty
( 8% )
Max
( 33% )
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the question to me about teagarden
1) will he stay healthy
2) will he make consistant contact
3) is his defense going to be as good as everyone says + is it worth it to have him catch part time
for this reason (and because i believe in salty) i picked salty over teagarden, among other things i do not think that 1-2-3 will happen and i dont see the value in having him have to split near 50/50 with a player because it negates his best tool (defense)
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
I really think
that 3) has already happened. His defense is already good enough. 2) I think he will always be a big K, big walk guy. 1) I think he will.
A year from now I think he will be in a quandary because this yr I believe that Salty will show a big bat, and below avg to avg catching skills while teagarden will be an avg hitter with GG defense. Neither will have both. Who do we choose then? ha
by Michael Cave on Feb 12, 2009 9:37 AM CST up reply actions
Sky's pretty pessimistic on Davis
He’s not a rookie anymore and hasn’t technically been one for a while and he hit 17 HRs last season. I don’t see how he only hits 22 in his first full season after that 17 HR season.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
sophomore slump i guess
it’s not completely unreasonable but that’s got to be his floor. you expect at least 22 and hope for 30.
I guess the thing is, to expect 30HR’s from anybody is a big deal.
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
Hitting that many HRs doesn't require too much skill
Mench has hit 26 and 25 HRs before, Marcus Thames has hit 26 and 25 too in basically half a season’s worth of ABs, Craig Monroe has hit 28 and 23 HRs in the past. Mediocre players can hit that many HRs just like good players. Its just like phil said in the OP. Davis may have a below average season and he won’t hit for a 129 OPS+ over a full season, but his raw power will make sure that he hits at least that many HRs even if he has a poor BA/OBP.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
Is it assumed he'll keep his job all year if he's a "crappy" hitter but with power?
The Rangers have other guys to plug in, correct?
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Feb 12, 2009 10:22 AM CST up reply actions
No, I think
they’ll stick with him unless he absolutely bombs.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
Not really
They can put Blalock there and MaxRam at DH or put MaxRam at 1B, but its Davis’ job to lose and he’ll have at least the first half of the season there before they even consider changing that.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
hmm
maybe she can convince people to vote for him for ROY a la volquez
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Feb 12, 2009 10:11 AM CST up reply actions
sky?
is a he?
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Feb 12, 2009 11:50 AM CST up reply actions
That makes last night a bit awkward for you, doesn't it.
I kid, I kid
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
got me.
lol
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Feb 12, 2009 1:30 PM CST up reply actions
interesting
thx for the info though
at least i wont make any bigger fool of myself lol
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Feb 12, 2009 2:25 PM CST up reply actions
well im screwed
but if you are…please tell me hhaha (not that it matters really, the probability of me meeting this sky person is about 350 mm to 1, right?
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Feb 12, 2009 3:23 PM CST up reply actions
he?
and in dc lol
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Feb 13, 2009 12:58 PM CST up reply actions
Didn't realize he played so much (and successfully) last year.
I might go a little higher, say 28, but understand that’s a pretty high number for a projection. PECOTA only has 23 projected that high.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Feb 12, 2009 10:21 AM CST up reply actions
That sounds very reasonable
People expecting him to just double his 17 from last year are being a bit optimistic I think. He’ll face some adjustments from pitchers and defenses. I expect him to adjust to that, but not to the tune of a 40 homer season.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
I'm not expecting him to double it
I’m expecting him to quadruple it. That’s right, Davis pulls the 60+ this year!!!
I actually believe he’ll hit something around 35 HRs this year. Yeah, that’s optimistic but Davis has some crazy good power and has adjusted to each league he’s played in while he was in the minors and has been improving at each stop. I’m not betting against him doing the same next year.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
Davis' power
I was looking through my copy of Ron Shandler’s Baseball Forecaster a couple days ago, and he’s got Davis’ raw power ability right up there with guys like Adam Dunn and Ryan Howard.
Davis may not hit 40 this year, but I’d bet money that he does it at least once, if not twice, in the next five years. He’s probably the best power bat the Rangers have developed since Hafner.
"I dont care to debate with a troll." - Sharky
is it enjoyable
i know a guy who swore by RC’s baseball forcaster?
better than any of the othe rones out there
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Feb 12, 2009 12:03 PM CST up reply actions
I like it
Mostly geared for fantasy purposes though. Excellent place to learn about component skills analysis.
"drawing walks is an overrated trait in my eyes."
"i do believe we could have 4 30 start pitchers in the rotation."
-- both these genius remarks brought to you by our resident guru, bigsteve
Yep
The Forecaster does a great job combining sabermetrics and fantasy.
Just for pure entertainment purposes, I like the Baseball Prospectus book a bit better, but for learning how to analyze player skills and apply that knowledge to winning your fantasy league, there’s no better book than the Forecaster.
"I dont care to debate with a troll." - Sharky
Except
Unlike Dunn and Howard, Davis’s OBP is below average.
.331 OBP vs. Howard’s .380 and Dunn’s .381
I’d guess that, at best, we can hope he stays afloat like Soriano does.
And I’m not really certain that his BA is sustainable (though he DOES have a > .300 BA in minor league ball).
But I do have a bias against hitters who don’t have the best strike zone judgement…
R
He's getting better though
I don’t think he’ll ever walk as much as Dunn or Howard, but I don’t think its out of the question for him to have an OBP near their’s.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
Also
People aren’t pitching around Davis as much as they do Howard at this point. Howard never had huge walk totals in the minors, and it was only when they started pitching around him that he got a clue and started taking so many pitches.
Another point is that if Davis does make a path like Howard or Dunn, then we’ll end up paying him a lot more than he’s actually worth as both of them have encountered. Granted, Davis isn’t as much of a butcher in the field as Dunn, but there’s a good chance that Davis puts up huge HR and RBI numbers and cashes in like Howard has recently. Big arbitration raises, big extension before free agency, etc. Not to mention Boras…
OBTW,
Marc Normandin, the fantasy guru at BP has CD putting up this line in ’09:
Rank Player Team PA R HR RBI SB AVG/ OBP/ SLG Beta
10. Chris Davis Rangers 574 70 29 93 4 .259/.312/.490 0.97
A Beta less than 1.00 is a less volatile/risky forecast.
"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008
LSB 2.0 & quotes
do not like Opera…
"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008
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