I must be drinking the Kool Aid cause I don’t see that at all.

He also has the Padres finishing with 80 wins. I know the NL West is a weak division, but the Padres look like a 90-95 loss team to me.

not saying that TEX is going to be good, but there will definitely be a couple of teams that implode/fail to launch/quit

again, not good – but i can’t see TEX being the worst. that is usually reserved for someone “special” like SEA’s 61 wins last year.

87-75.

No way we only win 69 games.

Because while the Rangers “effectively replaced Milton Bradley with Omar Vizquel in the lineup”, they have done a hell of a lot to improve the defense by replacing Young at SS and Vazquez at 3B with Vizquel and the new 3B, Young.

Who cares. Let the trolls masturbate over this one.

As much “fun” as projections can be to look at and surmise over, some of them always seem too unrealistic to put any stock in, and this would be one of them.

I’m still going with a 79-win season.

I should check and make sure I had the Omar/Elvis combo factored in at short when I ran their pitchers.

so maybe he hadn’t done that. he also ran this Feb. 10th – not exactly news.

And whatever, he’s an Angels fan that named his projections after Chone Figgins.

that’s no good

projection is an outlier. The Vizquel replacing Bradley analysis is silly, taking no account of the Rangers efforts at run prevention.

Also, with a lot of weak teams in the NL, I see the Cubs as closer to 100 than 88 wins. And, I don’t see an aging Tigers team improving by 11 wins this year.

But both or more accurate than people who sit around and make guesses based on gut feelings.

That said, they’re not far apart on us. Last I checked PECOTA it had us at 73. I have some idea of what has gone in to our PECOTA projection and I would slightly take the over. While I’ve seen our individual CHONE projections, I don’t know what has one in to the team total.

I do think 69 is more likely than 85, though.

Easy money.

:)

875 RS, 850 RA, 83-79 record

This is what you get. The whole NRI program goes nowhere. NRIs are for now, not tomorrow. This team is supposed to be playing for tomorrow. I would trade all the NRIs for one reasonable free agent.

a statistical analysis evaluating each of the major prediction systems. something like average of the deviation between actual wins and predicted wins for all teams over a ten year span. then compare those success rates with the success rates of the naive, “gut” predictions done by a a bunch of different baseball experts. i imagine the prediction systems have something to offer, and are probably more accurate over a large sample size. but that doesnt mean they wont occasionally render a prediction that doesnt pass the smell test.

here’s one way i look at it. if you held a contest where people had to choose whether they thought the rangers would win 10% more games than the prediction (76) or 10% fewer games (62) and if either of those results occurred then those who chose it would get $100, i think youd have virtual unanimity on the 10% more side of things. with predictions like this there is an inherent degree of variance. but a prediction that fails to account for the downside variance isnt a very accurate one to me.

im not ragging on the CHONE formulas or methodology or whatever, Im willing to accept that they probably do a good job most of the time. im just saying this particular prediction is in inaccurate one.

…..that several folks who like to refer to CHONE, PECOTA, etc. are having a hard time accepting the results as realisitic, and not in line with what they believe.

That being said, don’t think the runs against and runs for differential will be that different than last year, but I do expect both of them to be a little lower. The runs against should improve because of the following:

1) Millwood and Padilla are pitching for contracts, so expect better effort on their part.
2) If healthy, McCarthy definitely helps this rotation
3) Solid performance out of Feldman for the entire season is beneficial
4) As far as the Young, Andrus, Vizquel situation goes, I believe its true impact will be felt by 2010 and not in 2009. Young will be fine at 3B, but will be better next year with his comfort level higher. Vizquel is NOT the Vizquel we all want to remember and Andrus coming up will make us better by 2010. I believe it will have a slight positive impact on run prevention, but not to the extent everybody is hoping. I don’t believe the OF defense will be much better than it was last year……and yes, I’ve seen what everybody says about “if” and “but” regarding Cruz, Byrd, Jones, Murphy, etc. True run prevention impact will be made with 1-3 occurring with the rotation, and not overworking the bullpen….again. Oops…and a hopeful reduction in errors…..big ommission on my part, but I’m not retyping.

Run Production will be less in my eyes, for several reasons. Bradley’s ability will be missed in this lineup….no combination of players will make up for what he meant to the team last season, even if they cover his stats. Two different things. Last year was a magical season in some respects for the Rangers and individual players, and I expect some to do better, some about the same, and some less:

Kinsler – expect a dropoff from last season; dude was on fire and would be amazed if he can replicate what he was doing prior to injury

Young – expect improvement this year; played through injury and has been a steady offensive player throughout the years. Last year was forgettable, but I believe improvement will be seen as he gets back to what he does best….timely, consistent hitting.

Hamilton – Love the dude, but I feel there will be a little “back to Earth” happening this season….especially without the protection of Bradley.

Cruz – I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt and saying there is no positive or negative impact. This is based on finally showing he can hit a little at the end of last season, but I’m not counting on it for a whole season. Definite dropoff from Bradley, unless he can do consistently what he did at the end of last season. That’s asking alot.

Blalock – I believe Blalock’s bat will be a plus for run production, but just as a good bat to have in there. Not a he’s going to hit like a monster, but he will be solid. He will bump run production up a bit for the Rangers.

Davis – Definite improvement for 1B stats. I don’t believe he will hit as well for an entire season as he did last year, but he is definitely a run producer who scares other teams. He bumps the run production.

Muryphy/Byrd – I see nothing that boosts or hurts the numbers, but I don’t expect their numbers to increase anything significant.

Vizquel/Andrus – Black Hole of offensive stats. I believe this will be a significant dropoff negatively impacting run production, even though I know they are there for run prevention, I expect their production to be worse than SS or 3B from a year ago, so either way, its a loss offensively

Salty/Teagarden – I don’t expect anything more than we got from catcher the entire last season. I wished like hell that Salty got moved, because I don’t see anything from him. The duo only boosts run prevention, and imo, that’s only if Teagarden is behind the plate.

True improvement for the team will only come from the pitching side and that is if they can be a big part of the run prevention. I believe they will be better, but not great. But better can get them to 80 wins this season. If they falter, 72 wins isn’t out of the realm of possibility.

I wouldn’t be surprised if this teams wins anywhere from 69-86 or 87 wins. I think the upper 70s is more likely.

The Rangers have a lot of players that are either young or on their last legs or not very good. Anything could happen. Josey is a colossal ass, but his prediction about the record of the team this year is not outlandish. His reasoning is stupid, his blind hatred for Daniels is stupid, his arguments as to why the team won’t win more are stupid…
but his prediction about the won-loss record is entirely possible.

for one reason. The Rangers had a huge number of things go wrong the last couple of years, mainly due to injuries. With all the injuries to starters last year, young players were called up before they were ready and asked to do too much. The bullpen was exhausted and suffered its own injuries. The projections are based on these performances. If the team is simply healthier — a good bet, in my opinion — the team should project more in the low 80s range.

Sure, if the starters all get injured again and the bullpen has to pitch a stupid amount of innings the team will struggle to win 75 games. Duh. I don’t need Pecota to tell me that. Health had much more to do with the Rangers team ERA last year than any other factor. The Rangers suffered a ridiculous amount of bad luck last year and will not be that unhealthy again.

There is more than one person named Chone?

Texas is up to 72 wins. He hadn’t factored in the Vizquel/Young defensive moves on the pitchers’ ERAs. In his power rankings, the Rangers are 24th.

http://www.baseballprojection.com/2009standings.htm