Royals sign Juan Cruz
The Kansas City Royals have signed Juan Cruz:
Cruz signed a two-year contract with an option for 2011. The deal was believed to be worth $2.25 million for this year, $3.25 million for 2010 and a club option for $4 million for 2011 with a $500,000 buyout.
In an interesting side note, the Royals made room for Cruz on the 40 man by DFA'ing former Ranger Esteban German, who was traded by Texas for Fabio Castro lo these many years ago.
Anyway...this seems imminently reasonable, and I would have been on board with the Rangers signing Cruz for that amount, even for a 2nd round pick.
But as was noted earlier, the Rangers reportedly had no money in the budget available to sign Cruz.
That's understandable, though...you can't really expect Tom Hicks to try to compete financially with big-market, deep-pocketed teams like Kansas City.
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Comments
What really frustrates me
is that this wouldn’t have (only) been an “improve-now” deal for the Rangers; it would’ve also helped the team in 2010 and 2011. As those are the years in which the team’s frequently predicted to start competing, the Rangers “inability” to sign Cruz raises questions about the (almost-as-frequent) prediction that Hicks will open his wallet when the Rangers are on the cusp of contention.
Seems as if this would’ve been a good opportunity for Texas to lock a piece into place at a time when the market for free agents is as close to anything resembling reasonable as it’s likely to get…
(Speaking of reasonable ~ Adam, “imminently” doesn’t mean what you think it means…)
by Snark on Feb 28, 2009 9:42 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Bullpen
The bullpen is a bit different than most positions in that you can build a quality bullpen by picking guys up off the waiver wire/scrap heap. You can’t do this with starting pitching or other position players. While it is unfortunate that the Rangers did not sign Cruz, I don’t think it is indicative of some sort of systemic flaw in the way the Rangers are constructing their team.
by Excel Hearts Choi on Feb 28, 2009 9:56 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree to a certain degree
but I think you’re overstating how easy it is to build a playoff-caliber bullpen. Cruz represents good value for the money expended, and I’m with Adam ~ I would’ve been in favor of the Rangers making a similar offer.
And for what it’s worth, I wasn’t trying to identify a “systemic flaw” in the Rangers’ strategy ~ I was just stating my concerns about Texas’ (apparent) rationale for not signing a guy like Cruz at this point in time.
by Snark on Feb 28, 2009 10:01 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Okay
“Systemic flaw” is an overstatement. I hate to be the pessimist, but there is no guaranteeing that the Rangers are a playoff contender between now and 2011. I hope I am wrong. I just don’t think that Cruz is the final piece that pushes the Rangers into playoff contention, there are just too many other pressing questions. According to Fan Graphs, Mariano Rivera was the most valuable reliever last season with +3.1 wins. I think it is safe to say that Cruz won’t surpass this over the next three years (he has +3.8 wins for his career). If Hicks is going to be stingy with his money (and this certainly merits criticism), I’d much rather the Rangers spend it on players that will have a bigger impact.
by Excel Hearts Choi on Feb 28, 2009 10:27 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Why is it now suddenly shocking that Tom Hicks has no
motivation to change the payroll?
If the Rangers were to shock the world this year and win 92 games / narrowly miss post-season does anybody really believe that Hicks would bump the payroll to get over the hump even if attendance returned to 30,000+ per game?
See the off-season following 2004.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
by Josey Wales on Feb 28, 2009 11:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
That’s understandable, though…you can’t really expect Tom Hicks to try to compete financially with big-market, deep-pocketed teams like Kansas City.
my thoughts to a T.
how can the texas rangers compete with the large market, history of winning royals! its impossible, we can only hope that one day our owner is willing to open up his pockets like david glass…
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Feb 28, 2009 9:50 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
And Jerry Jones and Cubes aren't meddling jock-sniffers
by Adam J. Morris on Feb 28, 2009 10:07 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Jerry Jones is a great owner because he would do anything to win!
And Cubes is an awesome dancer!
by Brett Perryman on Feb 28, 2009 10:44 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
cuban
yeah, clearly he’s a bad owner. must be all that willingness to max out salary and go over the cap. or maybe it is his refusal to overrule the GM he has in place
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
by ab03 on Mar 1, 2009 12:32 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
What does that have to do
with his dancing?
by Brett Perryman on Mar 1, 2009 3:03 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Or maybe the upgraded stadium, sell-outs every night,
and the 2nd best regular season record of any team in the past 10 years
by BuckyB on Mar 1, 2009 3:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
There is an inverse relationship
the size of the ego commonly involved in making enough money to afford a professional sports franchise seems to often get in the way of letting competent people run said franchise.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
by t ball on Feb 28, 2009 11:04 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
This sure seems like an excellent signing
I am still of the belief, though it does take some faith still since they don’t just knock you over with their talent like TB did a year or two ago, that the Royals are going to pitch well in the near future, and given some of their positional talent that they will finally be a competitive team for a little while.
by Brett Perryman on Feb 28, 2009 10:02 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I'm liking this new,
Cynical AJM.
Kanye, you want to be the voice of this generation? Get in line! It goes me, Obamagirl, the Freecreditreport.com guys, then It's a tie between you-and Crocs.
-Stephen Colbert
by Conjunction on Feb 28, 2009 10:27 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I don't care about signing Cruz
This team is not one decent reliever from being a contender. Realistically, the Rangers have probably a 5% chance of making the playoffs this year (this wreaks of an 81 win club, with admittedly high variance in expected wins). Cruz makes that maybe 1% higher. Pass.
As for the Hicks bashing, sure, its easy to look at anyone who signs elsewhere that we could use and blame Hicks for being cheap. But the economics of whether the Rangers should spend several million for a guy who won’t chance the playoff potential by much is a little more complex than you are making it out to be.
There is an opportunity cost of paying more money for players now. Basically, money spent now means that the team has that much less to spend on in July or next winter. I’d rather the Rangers save that $2 million now, and if either a> the Rangers are competitive on July 31, they’ll have that $2 million line available to trade for someone or b> sign someone for the 2010 season when a +1 or +2 win acquisition actually could increase playoff probability by more than the 1% that Cruz would right now.
The only argument I could see in investing that money now is if you believe that player cost will go up enough in the next 6 months to offset the essentially sunk cost of Cruz in 2009.
by JBImaknee on Feb 28, 2009 10:30 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
your last line
there is no reason to believe that for a guy like juan cruz. Alternatively, Ben sheets, there actually was, which is why it made sense to go after him
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
by ab03 on Feb 28, 2009 10:36 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yep
There is always a Juan Cruz out there. Heck, there is a reason why he’s out there right now.
by JBImaknee on Feb 28, 2009 10:41 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
there's also a good chance that
the same caliber player is cheaper next year.
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
by ab03 on Feb 28, 2009 10:47 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
more expensive?
do you understand the disposition of the economy? or do you think juan cruz is way better than he is?
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
by ab03 on Mar 1, 2009 12:36 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Gee
Could your response be a little more condescending?
by Adam J. Morris on Mar 1, 2009 9:17 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
not without using direct insults
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
by ab03 on Mar 1, 2009 10:57 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I think the chances that...
…a pitcher of Cruz’s caliber — a very good late inning reliever — only being able to get a deal worth less than 2 years, $6 million, or 3 years, $9.5 million, at the team’s option, next offseason, is minimal.
Joaquin Benoit got 2 years, $6 million last offseason, and he wasn’t even f.a. eligible yet, or near as good as Cruz.
Look at what guys like Justin Speier and Jamie Walker and Chad Bradford were getting.
The market cratered this offseason, but it seems a lot more likely it will rebound this coming offseason than that it will get significantly worse.
Getting a quality late inning reliever like Cruz for this little is a very good deal for Kansas City.
by Adam J. Morris on Mar 1, 2009 11:19 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
x
The market cratered this offseason, but it seems a lot more likely it will rebound this coming offseason than that it will get significantly worse.
I disagree. Owners are going to take a hit this season. Some are going to have serious cash flow problems. The market for multi-year contracts for non-elite players doesn’t seem likely to rebound until after the 2010 season at the earliest.
"A good start would be not giving up 900 runs again." -Jon Daniels
by Randy Richardson on Mar 1, 2009 2:42 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Even if that is true
a guy like Cruz is not going to go for even less next winter. Unless unemployment is at something like 15% I don’t see it getting that much worse. It’s already really bad; it may not get better soon, but I don’t think it’s going to get substantially worse.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
by t ball on Mar 1, 2009 3:11 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
You wouldn't have predicted Abreu
only getting 1 yr for 5 mil this time last year. In fact, you would have scoffed at anyone even suggesting it… i still agree with you, just sayin
by BuckyB on Mar 1, 2009 3:17 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
x
Even if that is true a guy like Cruz is not going to go for even less next winter.
Why not? I can’t predict the future, but unless the economy turns around very quickly, the free agent situation stands to be the same or worse next offseason.
Owners will be in a much worse financial/cash position next offseason. Also, the arbitration system is currently misaligned with the market – so we should see a huge rise in non-tenders and non offers of arbitration this coming offseason creating more supply on the market.
"A good start would be not giving up 900 runs again." -Jon Daniels
by Randy Richardson on Mar 1, 2009 3:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Do you expect...
…that C.J. Wilson and Frankie Francisco will be non-tendered after the season?
Because if you are correct, and Juan Cruz — who is a better pitcher than either of those two — isn’t worth $3 million per year for 2 years with a very reasonable team option, then there’s little reason to believe that those two will be worth the $3.5-4 million they’ll get in arbitration after 2009.
by Adam J. Morris on Mar 1, 2009 3:28 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
It's not as unlikely
as it would have seemed just a few months ago.
Just for argument’s sake, let’s say that the Rangers attendance takes a 10-20% hit, merchandise sales plummet. Maybe the Rangers become seriously cash negative and need to cuts costs. It isn’t impossible to think that they could non-tender a guy like Wilson or Francisco in favor of league minimum youngs guys or veterans who they could bring in for say $800,000.
There can’t be more than just a few owners who own their teams outright. These guys are in serious debt and in the past they’ve relied on refinancing (or selling the team) that may or may not be available to them now. Owners are scared, and they are particularly scared of future guaranteed financial obligations.
I think Cruz is a really good pitcher. The market just completely fell out for players like him and it is likely to become worse before it gets better.
"A good start would be not giving up 900 runs again." -Jon Daniels
by Randy Richardson on Mar 1, 2009 3:51 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
If that's the case...
…they already have almost $40 million or so in contracts coming off the books with Millwood, Padilla, Blalock, Cat, Byrd, and Benoit.
Kinsler and Hamilton will see hefty pay raises, but if they really get that bad off, they can keep the payroll at around $50 million just by letting their free agents walk.
by Adam J. Morris on Mar 1, 2009 4:11 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
The Rangers
are better situated financially and geographically than most MLB teams are to weather this storm.
"A good start would be not giving up 900 runs again." -Jon Daniels
by Randy Richardson on Mar 1, 2009 4:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Which is why making Cruz an offer
comparable to the one the Royals made him would seem to make sense.
by Snark on Mar 1, 2009 6:08 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
exactly
And I’m not sure how insurance works on players contracts, but I’d assume that most of Benoit’s salary will now be paid by insurance, so the money to Cruz probably wouldn’t have even affected the actual payroll.
Doctor please. Some more of these.
by tricer on Mar 2, 2009 8:11 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, Cruz would've fortified the bullpen whether we made the playoffs or not
But I agree with your point about what that cash could also be used for later (never know, it could come in handy at draft time this year too).
So I’m not really to disappointed about this either – would’ve been nice to have him, as he probably would’ve recouped the draft pick he would’ve cost, but missing out isn’t the end of the world either.
"You can have such a massive impact on a game even when you're not getting ground balls hit at you." - Michael Young
by lonestarJon on Feb 28, 2009 10:41 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
yep
Stability is key, and JD is a Beast.
Jindal - 2012
"AMMIITAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAABHH!!!"
by Longhorn on Mar 1, 2009 12:37 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I am still constantly amazed
that some disgruntled Ranger fan has not yet laid a well-deserved beating on the Hick.
I'm just killing time until I'm reincarnated.
by Clueless on Feb 28, 2009 10:59 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
You mean like this?

-- Micah
Baseball Is My Boyfriend
"More than any other American sport, baseball creates the magnetic, addictive illusion that it can almost be understood."
- Thomas Boswell
by baseballismyboyfriend on Feb 28, 2009 11:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Royals
The Cruz contract seems high for this market that is being driven further and further down. Although, compared to the Farnsworth deal, it’s an absolute steal. I don’t really understand what Dayton Moore is trying to accomplish this offseason. Their hitters still suck at getting on base – they had a .320 team OBP last year and acquired Mike Jacobs (career OBP of .318) and Coco Crisp (career OBP of .331).
"A good start would be not giving up 900 runs again." -Jon Daniels
by Randy Richardson on Mar 1, 2009 12:58 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
I've never seen the point in wasting a draft pick on a reliever
There should be plenty of internal options for the bullpen soon enough. No worries.
by hiafex on Mar 1, 2009 1:52 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Love this blog.
“you can’t really expect Tom Hicks to try to compete financially with big-market, deep-pocketed teams like Kansas City.”
Brilliant. That is why I love your blog Adam!
by el_gigante45 on Mar 1, 2009 8:29 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Cruz
I have a feeling this is a guy who is going downhill and won’t ever sniff the success hes had the last couple years. The thing that makes me think that is his walks. He went from a 4.47 BB’9 pitcher in 2006 to a 4.72 BB/9 in 2007 and then last year he jumped to a 5.40 BB/9. Doing that in the NL makes me very weary. I think hes a nice player but with the way bullpen guys go theres just as good a chance over the contract he regresses significantly as there is he continues being a good pitcher.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Mar 1, 2009 11:39 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
So, I wonder
how many of the NRIs signed are worth one Juan Cruz. I mean they weren’t free were they?
by SanDiegoKev on Mar 1, 2009 3:11 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

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