2009 Projections Update

I just finished my first rough draft of the 2009 projections. (Scroll over to TEX at the bottom to see them.)

For now, though SLG and OBP are included, players are projected on wOBA. I eliminated ZiPS because I didn't think it was good enough and only have CHONE. When PECOTA comes out, I'll include it as well, and use it for an objective playing time distribution.

I will keep this chart (updating it as things change) elsewhere, but when we start doing community projections, I'll input them in there. This is just an early look at a most basic statistical projection. For playing time I used, mostly, split time at positions of doubt, CHONE's PA projections, and a little bit of other touch and feel. I don't necessarily stand behind all the playing time distributions, but my first goal was to get this done and then work on it from there.

For now, we're a 76 win team with this playing time and these CHONE projections. Which, incidentally, is just about exactly where I would have set our over/under for the season (I probably would have gone a little bit higher, maybe 78 or 79). It gives us 19% odds for a .500 season, 5% for 86 wins and 1% for more than 90 wins.

That's all for now. Suggestions and comments encouraged. Especially with evidence, and not just feelings.

Here's a chart of our chances:

Also, now more than ever I think our outfield (before call-ups) should be Hamilton in right, Byrd in center, Cruz and Murphy platooning in left (with more Cruz than Murphy), and Boggs as a 5th OF, with ample time in center to give him a chance in the Majors.