Saturday a.m. stuff
by Adam J. Morris on Feb 7, 2009 9:20 AM CST
Email
PrintWell, Jason Jennings has been signed, which I think is a good thing.
Jennings can request his release on April 1 and April 25 if he isn't on the 40 man roster, and has an $800K deal with a possible $1.45 million in incentives available to him.
Jeff Wilson has an article up about Jennings, who is supposedly going to be healthy this year for the first time since the 2006 season.
Wilson also has an article up on the slow free agent market, running down some of the players who are still out there.
Mike Hindman runs down why he thinks the Rangers might have decent pitching in 2009, and says the most important slot is Brandon McCarthy at the #3 slot, although he says that there is "literally no objective reason to believe that Brandon McCarthy is up to the job." That seems to me to be either hyperbole, or a very loose interpretation of the word literal.
Jim Reeves says the Rangers should stay out of the free agent pitching pool at this point, and that significant improvement will require someone like Neftali Feliz, Derek Holland, or Thomas Diamond stepping up and making a significant impact this season. While this is possible, as I've mentioned before, I do think you've got the possibility from internal improvements from the guys already here that would represent a significant improvement over last year's pitching staff.
60 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Hindman on BMac
he says that there is “literally no objective reason to believe that Brandon McCarthy is up to the job.” That seems to me to be either hyperbole, or a very loose interpretation of the word literal.
Or a very strict definition of the word objective. I happen to agree with MJH on this – I don’t think that it is at all wise to expect anything out of him. Obviously he’s better than Jennings, where I am pretty confident on seeing no contribution to the team. But BMac has to show he can pitch 10 starts in a row without going down for a few months.
I would say...
…what McCarthy did through 2006 is objective evidence he can be a solid major league starter.
He’s been unable to stay healthy the last couple of years, of course, but if he’d come up through our system, and if we’d been following him as closely as we follow our prospects when he was considered one of the top young pitchers in the game, I doubt Rangers fans would be as willing to write him off as worthless.
by Adam J. Morris on Feb 7, 2009 9:33 AM CST up reply actions
fair criticism by Adam
what I meant by “up to the job” didn’t have anything to do with his ability, it mostly had to do with the expectation that he could knock down 180+ innings. I should have said exactly that.
Our pitching staff
is not good. Every year, we say the same thing, if these veterans can pitch well enough to anchor the rotation and our young guys improve, we will have a good rotation. I don’t see it this year.
Even when Feliz and Holland get their shots, they’ll have to adjust to ML hitters and most likely will be knocked around a bit, especially in TBiA.
Another one bites the dust! And another one, and another one, and another one bites the dust!
Well
Talking about Koronka or Rheins improving is a bit different than Harrison, McCarthy, or Feldman.
but not much different than nippert
and feldman i would think is in the koronka category
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
Really?
I think he passed Koronka pretty early on last season.
by brettgardner on Feb 7, 2009 11:13 AM CST up reply actions
looking at it some more
it’s pretty uncanny how similar they are
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
Oh
Did Koronka just come off a major overhaul in his delivery which made him a completely different pitcher?
"My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is,
‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all.
So I’m not going to say anything at all.
Is my mother the greatest or what?"
- Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, after signing Ichiro to a $90 million contract
so
you think feldman is going to get better because he’s going to hit his stride with his new delivery? I’m sure there was some random pitching mechanic that koronka fixed in 2006 also.
the fact is that they were both on the old side without much major league success before they had one season of “promise” where they put together a few starts but overall were well below average. feldman might get better (just like people thought koronka/rheinecker might get better) but i wouldn’t’ hold your breath.
look at the numbers
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
Based on what?
I love when people compare completely different pitchers and think that they are in the same category. Feldman may fail big time next season, but he isn’t the same pitcher Koronka is. Just take a look at what happened as the season went on. Koronka was getting killed after a couple of great months and posted a 7 something ERA. Feldman pretty much stayed consistent as the seasn with the exception of getting hit harder in the 5th/6th innings of games but still able to maintain a 5.5 ERA. Feldman’s biggest problem last year was mainly when he was getting past that 75 pitch mark. Considering his past as a RP and the huge uptake in innings last year, that should be too surprising. Mix in some horrible defense and a bullpen that tries its best to kick you when you’re down and you had Feldman’s 2008 season.
Also, if you take out Feldman’s relief outings last season, he has a 5.18 ERA with an .809 OPS against. Koronka had a 5.69 ERA with an .824 OPS against.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
are you serious?
you see a difference between 824 and 809?
And the trendlines you are divining aren’t nearly so obvious. Feldman looks like he got progressively worse as the season went on and Koronka just looks pretty up and down (even more obvious if you take away his 5 bad August innings).
Actually, your failing is the terrible characterization of Koronka when it wasn’t nearly as bad (or not so much worse than Koronka if you happen to have a non Ranger outlook of what bad pitching is).
In the end, they both settled into being 5IP/5 ERA pitchers before they finished off their years horribly (although Koronka’s year was a short blippy terrible and Feldman’s was a more sustained not as terrible but still bad).
Sorry guy – it’s a pretty apt comparison. If anything,
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
It appeared that Feldman
simply ran out of gas at the end of the year. Remember it was his first year starting and he quickly set his career mark for IP.
I don’t know why we wouldn’t want to give Feldman every opportunity to succeed with us; for a back of the rotation spot, he’s just the type of pitcher we could use.
Scott Feldman for 2009 AL Cy Young
Scott Feldman for 2010 AL Scott Feldman
did i disagree with your last paragraph?
I didn’t think giving koronka or rheinecker a chance back then was a bad idea either. I’m just saying that feldman’s chances at becoming something good are about the same as koronka’s was back then. the numbers tell pretty much the exact same tale (look at the splits – uncanny!). take that however you want to take it. I wished good things for koronka then and feldman now.
But, someone like Harrison, I have higher hopes.
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
Look at the splits
They really aren’t that similar. Now if you want to look at the bottom line numbers each posted, you have more of an argument yet still not a great one.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
Again
You are comparing 2 different type of pitchers and claiming that they are the same. Feldman’s a righty who threw 76.9% FBs/CT and 17.5% SL/CB with some change-ups mixed in. Koronka is a lefty who in 2006 threw 66.7% FBs with 19% of his pitches being change-ups and some breaking pitches mixed in.
Now if you want to take a look at their actual numbers, again you see two different stories that just ended up with similarly poor results. You want to take out 5 bad August innings because they were bad yet ignore taking out 7 relief innings for Feldman. Lets see, a RP turned SP being forced into a relief role on a few occasions throughout the season or a mediocre SP who pitched like crap in August so that shouldn’t be taken into consideration. Which one makes more sense to exclude? Here is Feldman’s stats as a starter only andHere is Koronka’s stats as a starter.
Feldman only got worse because he got tired. You can say his stats here per inning and pitch count. And here is how Koronka was doing per inning and pitch count. The only time Koronka was actually effective in the game was when he was between 76-100 pitches. WIthout looking at the exact situations, my guess would be that when Koronka was making it to 76+ pitches, he was actually having a good game and wasn’t nibbling like he loved doing so much. Otherwise, he was getting shelled in the beginning of the game and was pulled well before he could reach the 100 pitch mark.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
i give up
if you look at those numbers and actually think there is a difference, be my guest. you’re going to see what you want to see.
the fact of the matter is that they are both non prospects who had some initial success as a starter (for whatever reason) and before they got gassed at the end (for whatever reason) they ended their careers as starters becoming 5IP/ ERA pitchers.
Look at the splits as starters taking out their two horrible months.
Feldman: 4.96
Koronka 4.93
Look at their peripherals.
Feldman (as a starter): 4.25k/9 3.35bb/9
Koronka: 4.39k/9 3.38bb/9
whatever – spin whatever story you want.
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
Koronka didn't get gassed
He just sucked. He’s pitched 150, 169, 163, 153, and 136 innings in the years leading to his 2006 season when he pitched a total 145 innings.
Why in the hell would you look at their splits as starters taking out their two horrible months? 
And as I said, if you want to say they are the same pitcher based on the bottom line numbers, fine. You’re wrong, but fine. But look past that and see what Feldman actually did in each game and its really easy to see that he got tired late in game and especially as the season went on when the team was forced into playing him (when they even said they would rather not do so). Do you remember a single quote from the Rangers saying that Koronka was getting tired or that they were concerned he might get tired?
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
that's not cherry picking
cherry picking is if i compared one random month with another. taking out two outliers is something people do all the time. taking out a ridiculous 5IP stretch is just good statistical analysis. I probably shouldn’t have done that with feldman but i did anyway just so you wouldn’t say i was being biased.
I get the whole, Feldman got worse as he went along; Koronka was just even. But who cares? The fact that someone is lights out the first time through and progressively worse after that doesn’t fill me with a lot of confidence. Plenty of shitty pitchers are like that.
So yeah, they’re not exactly the same type of pitcher in that one was a reliever turned starter and the other is just a starter but in the end. Maybe a better comparison is Kam Loe.
If anything, I want the guy that actually showed flashes of being able to pitch deep into games but was just inconsistent as apposed to the guy that consistently couldn’t go deep into games but maybe that’s just me.
Either way, I don’t think I was too far off in looking at those two guys as points of comparison.
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
Koronka vs Feldman
Its not fair to compare the two. Koronka was a starter his entire pro career. All but 20 of his almost 250 pro appearances were as a starter. 9 of those came as a 17 year old in rookie ball. He was accustomed to starting and used to it. Feldman, prior to last year, had made 4 career starts. None outside of Rookie ball. He went into spring last year as a reliever. It was only after he was unable to win a spot in the pen did the Rangers decide to convert him back to a starter. You know how many starts he had in the minors to get accustomed to starting before being called up to the majors? All of 2 in Frisco.
I’ve ran the numbers before. Feldman was a really nice pitcher for the most part last year. In the last inning or portion of an inning of his outtings his ERA swelled to over 15. Prior to that point it was sub 4. It was sub 4 averageing almost 5 innings per start. Which coming from a guy who a couple months prior was still a reliever isn’t too shabby.
Personally I look for Feldman to get better this year. I have said before I think he can put up solid 180+ innings of 4.5 ERA baseball for us. Hes not going to strike out a ton of guys or win any awards but it will be the workman like innings this team or any team that looks to compete for titles needs from the back of their rotation.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
You aren't taking out 2 outliers
Feldman made 25 starts and Koronka made 23. Taking out at least 1/3 of their playing time is more than just taking out a couple of outliers. Furthermore, Koronka doesn’t have many real outliers in his 2006 season. The only thing I’ve done is take a look at what Feldman has done in the role he was meant to fill (SP) and excluded the times he hasn’t.
Feldman had problems going deep into games because he was overused badly without ever really having a chance to get used to the heavier workload. Its not supposed to fill you with a ton of confidence, but it is a part of his game that can be easily fixed simply by now knowing what to expect.
Kam Loe is also a terrible comparison. Loe was a starter for most of his minor league career before coming up to the Majors. When he was brought up, the Rangers used him out of the bullpen at first but gave him his chance at the rotation that same year. Off the top of my head, I really can’t think of many good comparisons for Feldman. There are a few SP in recent years that transitioned from the bullpen, but none were young pitchers and I think most of them had some experience starting in the minors whereas Feldman wasn’t a starter since the year he was drafted.
If anything, I want the guy that actually showed flashes of being able to pitch deep into games but was just inconsistent as apposed to the guy that consistently couldn’t go deep into games but maybe that’s just me.
Feldman averaged 5.7 IP/start and made 18 starts last year where he went into the 6th or 7th innings. More often than not, he was actually pulled before the 100 pitch mark, I’m guessing because Wash was afraid of overworking him. The early game at Oakland is a good example of this when he gave up 2 hits and 0 runs in 6 innings but left the game after only 87 pitches. So once again, I do not agree at all with your statement. He showed “flashes” of being able to pitch deep into games.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
I'm shaking with anger
reading that.
Scott Feldman for 2009 AL Cy Young
Scott Feldman for 2010 AL Scott Feldman
by Maximilian on Feb 7, 2009 11:18 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
That's why expectations for 2009
should be pretty low with hopefully the young guys taking their lumps in the 2nd half. Maybe move a few vets at the trade deadline and hope for improvement in guys like Harrison, CJ Wilson, Salty, and B Mac.
Just don’t get your hopes up to far. You’ll probably avoid a lot of disappointment.
Future Mash Unit
TX Pitchers who have been under the knife:
Relievers: Benoit, AJ Murray, Gabbard, FranFran, Wilson, Guardado, Rupe, Nippert, Torres, Batista(?), Turnbow, Mendoza, Eyre, Mathis, Strop, Bannister, Swanson, Hyatt, Mathis, Ballard
Starters: B-Mac, Diamond, Jennings, Moscoso, Hurley, Feldman
Units not previously repaired: Millwood, Padilla, Hunter, Harrison, Holland, Feliz, Lueke, Laughter, Garr, Beau Jones, Madrigal
I don’t know about everyone else, but the only aspect of our first half pitching that I am looking forward to is getting about half of it off the field so that we can see the more talented injury replacements arrive….
Stepping back from the long term picture and honing in on 2009
Why in the world would you choose Diamond as someone who could offer the staff “significant improvement”? Here is what he’s done in AA in his career (year two, may have been hurt, year three getting his control back, but year one was in the middle of his phenom period):
Year Team Lg Age Org Lvl Unif W L ERA G GS CG SH GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO WP H9 HR9 BB9 K9 WHIP
2005 FRI Tex 22 Tex AA 5 4 5.35 14 14 0 0 0 69.0 66 44 41 8 38 68 10 8.6 1.0 5.0 8.9 1.51
2006 FRI Tex 23 Tex AA 32 12 5 4.24 27 27 1 1 0 0 129.1 104 65 61 14 78 145 9 7.2 1.0 5.4 10.1 1.41
2008 FRI Tex 25 Tex AA 3 3 6.20 12 11 0 0 0 0 53.2 54 39 37 3 37 47 2 9.1 0.5 6.2 7.9 1.70
Even the most optimistic outlooks for Diamond that have him showing consistent velocity, a breaking ball that has flashed a few times here and there becoming a consistent weapon, and developing control and command that he’s never had (certainly above Low A, where he could dominate hitters with a good FB/change combo) can’t have him achieving all of that – while he’s just getting comfortable with the fact that he’s healthy and can let it go – immediately and so much so that he improves the staff significantly, can they?
Agree.
Diamond’s not a guy that will offer significant improvement to the staff anytime soon, likely ever. I’d say there’s other guys that could offer more at the ML level outside of Feliz and Holland this year than Diamond.
"showing conisitent velocity, a breaking ball that has flashed a few times"
No mention of the changeup which Callis calls a “plus changeup” in June, 2005. Diamond didn’t show control problems until his second month in AA, I would wonder if the percentage of breaking balls thrown increased dramatically.
"My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is,
‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all.
So I’m not going to say anything at all.
Is my mother the greatest or what?"
- Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, after signing Ichiro to a $90 million contract
Changeup
I didn’t mention it because I don’t think it’s a stretch that it can be a good weapon so soon like those other components. And fine, let’s say his control went in the toilet because he threw more curveballs. I watched him during that period. He was by no means throwing 30% curves or anything. The comment supports what I’m saying. Even if he can put all of that together eventually, he clearly needs time, at least if you’re going to keep hope that he can be a starter (and I do at this point).
by Brett Perryman on Feb 7, 2009 11:54 AM CST up reply actions
You do?
Reading your comments in this thread…what is your optimism based on?
Not meant to be ad hominem. You just figure he has the aptitude and some time to work on his repertoire?
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on Feb 7, 2009 5:28 PM CST up reply actions
Well
I don’t know that I’m optimistic. I’m not optimistic that he has a future as a closer type. I think that for him to be a useful major league pitcher he’s going to have to develop his curve to an average pitch and gain control of his fastball. But if he does do those, he’s a starting pitcher, so that’s where I think you focus his development.
That’s not to say that he doesn’t wind up as a setup or middle guy in the pen if he sort of halfway does those things or that the team doesn’t opt to use him somewhere in relief in 2009 or 2010. But I mean you can say that about pretty much any nonelite starter prospect.
For instance, if you take Moscoso and Diamond, and you’re going to put one in the big league bullpen (later in 2009) and keep one in the minors starting, I’d put Moscoso in the pen and keep Diamond in a minor league rotation. He does have two more options, and he’s at least shown flashes with the curve. Moscoso has the smaller body and has shown more ability to make his fastball (with little in the way of quality secondary stuff) work against advanced hitters.
by Brett Perryman on Feb 7, 2009 6:37 PM CST up reply actions
Pitching is the name of the game
and pitching has been the Ranger’s weakness for years. I completely agree with MJH about the starters having to eat more innings. That is the main reason why I choose to NOT bash Milly. He eats up around 180 innings per year and has kept his ERA around 5.00. While not impressive for a #1 pitcher, look at the rest of the staff over the past three years and try not to puke. Pad’s has been decent but the starter logginf the most innngs since JD took the reigns is Loe.
While I am not getting my hopes up in order to prevent the inevitable Ranger dissapointment and depression when reality hits. I do look for Milly and Pad’s to log 350 plus innings combined. Jennings could help the rotation as the season goes on. Either or both Nippert and Bmac could find their potential. Harrison will probably develop, and Feldman could continue his workhorse approach. It in unrealistic to expect all of these to occur but some could. Additionally, I think each of those seven options are more likely to impact the 09 rotation in a positive than any help from the farm.
Putting on the Missouri motto (Show me), I am waiting for the talent to show me something in Arlington before I buy into the hype. It was not that long ago that the hype was all about HDVD saving the Rangers pitching staff and JD was lauded for stealing Tejeda from the Phils and getting pitching for Soriano. Our staff is arguably worse today than it was three years ago and the hype evaporated with injuries, bad decisions and horrible trades.
Here is hoping something good happens to the Rangers rotation this year depite no objective reason to believe it ever will.
Millwood
Is Millwood even tradable? If he is pitching poorly then nobody will want him. If he pitches well then he is likely to make 180IP that would vest his 2010 option. I don’t think anyone will want Millwood in 2010 at $12MM. Maybe if Hicks threw in about $4-5MM.
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
Tradable? probably not.
But the fact that he is the only Ranger pitcher to avg. 180 innings over the past three years, keeps his ERA around 5.00 makes him so much better than any one else not named Padilla on this team it is scary.
Before we run Milly and Pads out of town wouldn’t it be nice to have someone who can replace their spots in the rotation???
If he pitches well enough..
…for his option to vest, then his 2010 option won’t be much of an issue, I don’t expect.
by Adam J. Morris on Feb 7, 2009 12:53 PM CST up reply actions
I guess I am hoping he
pitches well enough to have the option kick in. Ditto for Pad’s until we have some proof we can replace their IP.
Ideally
He ends up spending one stint on the 15 day DL which is enough for his option not to vest, but he pitches well enough to where the Rangers might have interest picking up his option anyways.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
My bet is that
2010 would be more 2008. Was he worth $12M latstyear?
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
Jennings
Just when Jennings has pitched in a game (not necessarily qualifying for a win or loss), Jennings teams have won:
2 of the last 25 games he’s pitched.
4 of last 34.
6 of last 40.
"We go to Jim Knox..."
"You brought the Pomeranian bowling?"
But at least he's from Mesquite.
You just don't know when to keep your mouth shut, do you Saxy boy?
by oc on Feb 7, 2009 12:55 PM CST up reply actions
Injuries aside...
that is still 2, 4 or six more than the hyped kids on the farm.
I like the chances of him being healthy more than the farm producing an impact starting pitcher this season.
That's not really a valid point.
That’s like saying the ML starter that goes 1-10 with a 9 ERA is better than the impact minor league starter, because he has produced that 1 win. You have to go with the guy who gives you a better chance to win a game, regardless of whether he’s a veteran or not.
big or bit?
No doubt about the impact Danks and Volquez have made elsewhere. But who is to day that we don’t make more trades that make sense at the time?
Another counter to being ignorant or as ab03 put it dumb is that Jennings has had MLB succes in the past where as the kids have not.
I intended the above comment to be a reply to Andy's comment
but user error prevented intentions from becomming reality.
I don't see why both scenarios aren't possible
you have to figure that injuries are going to take place at some point, and if Holland/Feliz aren’t being rushed, they might give Jennings another shot, if it’s early enough in the season, and he appears healthy.
I’m greatly looking forward to seeing what H&F can do for the club this year, but I’m very nervous about them being rushed. I’d rather give Jennings a look early on, and go from there.
Scott Feldman for 2009 AL Cy Young
Scott Feldman for 2010 AL Scott Feldman
Both are most definately possible.
I for one am hoping both happen. I would love to see the Rangers catch a little luck in the pitching dept.
They'll need all the luck they can get
but it can’t be much worse in the luck department than last season, esp. for Millwood.
Scott Feldman for 2009 AL Cy Young
Scott Feldman for 2010 AL Scott Feldman
Millwood was terribly unlucky
that Laird always had a box of donuts around.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
Now, at least Laird
can spend his days lighting Detroit pitchers’ shoes on fire, instead of Harrison.
Scott Feldman for 2009 AL Cy Young
Scott Feldman for 2010 AL Scott Feldman
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Lone Star Ball
Related FanShots on Lone Star Ball
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- College player makes impossible over the fence catch to save tournament game (Video)
- Security!: Camden Yards guard collides with Royals’ Mike Moustakas
- The Juice: Nelson Cruz matches career high eight RBIs, Pujols stays hot in Seattle
- Benches clear at Fenway as Red Sox-Rays rivalry heats up
- Keeping good company: Albert Pujols becomes fourth-youngest player to hit 450 home runs
