Sullivan: Rangers considering Andruw Jones
by Adam J. Morris on Feb 7, 2009 4:12 PM CST
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PrintT.R. Sullivan writes that the Rangers are "considering" signing Andruw Jones to a minor league deal as a reclamation project.
I'm not entirely sure what the Rangers would want to do with him, though. As I've mentioned before, there's already Murphy, Byrd, Hamilton, and Cruz at the major league level, plus Boggs, Borbon, and Golson in the minors. If Smoak comes quickly, Chris Davis could move to right field.
And I have to question how happy Jones would be in a 5th outfielder role, even coming off a disappointing 2007 and a disastrous 2008.
If the Rangers were to bring Jones in and were serious about him, I have to assume either Hank Blalock or Marlon Byrd would get dealt, and the Rangers would be wanting Jones to fill that potent bat in the middle of the order role, although there's little reason to believe he can do that.
This seems like Sammy Sosa all over again...and despite the proclamations from some corners about that being a success, I think you folks know how I feel about that particular decision.
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likewise
i get confused as hell when this team pulls one of these random moves.
Honestly,
i dont think that he even makes the team. Something is up with him. His rapid descent has been alarming.
Body Language
Something is up and has been up since late 2007. I saw him play in Atlanta the last month of the season in 2007. There were rumors he wouldn’t be re-signed (and he wasn’t). I watched him walk to and from home plate like he dreaded it. His head was hung low and his body language was awful. He walked very slowly and I thought he looked depressed. He may be done but the Rangers are certainly not wagering a lot here and if any local can rejuvinate him this is it. I really don’t expect much but there might be some upside at a cheap price. If he can’t do anything in this ballpark with this hitting coach I would say he is through.
If we can flip Byrd or Blalock
Then I’m fine with taking a shot on Rudy getting Andruw back above replacement level.
But without moving one of our current OF/DH candidates, I don’t see how he fits onto the roster.
Then again, if it’s a minor league deal, he could not even make the team and leave us with nothing to worry about.
Keith Law: (1:45 PM ET ) I think Michael Young should shut his mouth and move to third base.
please
please no, just because it hasn’t been a busy off-season lets not get irresponsible…
-Feldman '12
"Bush also yelled "I'm Matt (expletive) Bush," and "(expletive) East County," before driving over a curb in his Mercedes when leaving the campus"
AJM's sock puppet website
http://www.poopflingingmonkeys.com/
It's baseball. You don't always get what you want, and you don't always want what you get. --Ed Coffin
I really don't want to hear of it
There is reclamation, and there is obtusely believing a “name” would put butts in seats. This is most likely neither. Even if Andruw gathers himself and stays in shape, at this point it would be like buying a 1959 Mercedes limo just because it’s scarce, was great in its’ heyday, and could be had cheap. Once you have it, what in the blazing hell are you going to do with it?
I don’t think anyone, even with zombie creation powers, can make Jones anything more than a shell of what he used to be.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)
by Ed Coffin on Feb 7, 2009 4:28 PM CST reply actions
Heyman
Doesn’t this news call for some sort of retraction or acknowledgment that Heyman was not off base in his previous column? You pretty much accused him of professional malpractice, ie deliberately misleading his readers to aid Scott Boras, and it turns out he was correct.
That said, I also thought Heyman was on crack when I read his article about this.
"Was this really necsarry?" - cowpoke/hurler hurley
I would have to follow up on a fairly mean spirited emal to Heyman as well
And would do so, if warranted.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)
by Ed Coffin on Feb 7, 2009 4:32 PM CST up reply actions
Yes
this changes nothing. I would only say “sorry about calling you a stooge for this particular article.”
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
I wouldn't even do that.
Because then I feel like I’d be rewarding someone picking every 16 seed to win in March Madness for 20 years and then getting one right this spring.
But see
the italics were meant to convey the scorn and contempt with which I would invest that sentence. It would be plain in the way I say it that I wasn’t really apologizing.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
I thought Heyman was off target as well...
but that’s mainly because AJM told me “This is getting ridiculous”.
I honestly don’t have a problem with a NRI. I’m not sure what harm can come from it. Do we regret the Edgardo Alfonzo move from last year? I don’t think so. If he’s a malcontent because of playing time – he’s on the street. If he can’t hit – he’s on the street. If he can’t lay off the dingdongs – he’s on the street. BUT… if he accepts his role on the team (whatever it happens to be), if he can hit his weight (we might be talking about a batting title), and if he can stay in shape then we may have a legit CFer which would allow us to move Hambone to RF, and continue to season Borbon until he’s ready for the big time.
I guess you heard Fat Joe left Atlantic.
x
he can’t lay off the dingdongs
Has anybody heard from LAMF? He’s been MIA for over a month. I hope he’s okay.
It's baseball. You don't always get what you want, and you don't always want what you get. --Ed Coffin
I know, right?
I haven’t heard a good “Millwood is fat” joke in a long while.
I’m going through withdrawal over here.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
I hate Michael Young.
"There are no weak opinions with the dirkatron, it’s all scream-across-the-parking-lot echelon." -hightowersmith
Heyman
has a long his of Boras loving. This goes beyond this off-season. He is a mouthpiece for Boras. I, also, think the Rangers are used alot in the rumors, and they don’t shoot any of them down. Do they really like Boras’ rumors flying around this team?
Another one bites the dust! And another one, and another one, and another one bites the dust!
Well we have a ton of OF already but if some of them get hurt I wouldn't mind having him up
he better not block anyone though (Borbon).
FOR MANLY LOVE BE HERE MARCH 25TH AT 2:15 AM SHARP
i wouldnt say im optimistic that he can 'reclaim'
much of what he was just a few years ago. but deals like this are about the leveraging a low amount of risk for the possibility of a substantial reward. if he doesnt cost us much and the bulk of any money going his way is stashed away in escalators which wont be triggered unless he’s able to make a valuable contribution, i dont see much harm.
lets not forget how good this guy was a few years ago, both in the field and at the plate. im very suspicious that we can resurrect any of that, but at least conditions are here more favorable than elsewhere. we have an accomplished hitting coach, a fine power hitters park, a low pressure media environment, a team with minimal expectations, and an above average lineup with depth so you can choose to slot him where you like in order to maximize the good pitches he sees or give him opportunities to drive in runs.
i think the chance we sign him is minimal but i wouldnt call it armageddon if we did. its just another unexciting move that has a small chance to pay off but could be a nice payoff indeed, opening up trade possibilities or helping us win ball games.
by Smoakin in the Boys Room on Feb 7, 2009 4:34 PM CST reply actions
I have no problem with signing him to a minor league contract as a reclaimation project.
I have a problem with making room for him at the expense of the team and giving him at-bats at the expense of youth experience.
Yeah, it’s low risk for high potential reward, but does he dislodge someone form Oklahoma to Frisco? I think a lot of people were hoping to see Boggs-Borbon-Shed in OKC.
Of course, there’ll probably be a cut-me-if-I’m-not-on-the-25-in-May clause.
seems harmless, but
If it leads to a trade of either Byrd or Blalock, I’m not really feeling it.
"Was this really necsarry?" - cowpoke/hurler hurley
Depends on the return
If it leads to Blalock and something non-pivotal for J. Sanchez, would you feel that?
Keith Law: (1:45 PM ET ) I think Michael Young should shut his mouth and move to third base.
I guess
I mean we can get into hypotheticals, but unless there’s a deal out there like the one you mention out there then I just think this team is going to be better with an outfield of Hamilton/Cruz/Murphy/Byrd and Blalock at DH than if Jones is in the mix. But I also feel like Jones is probably done fer. Could be wrong, I suppose.
"Was this really necsarry?" - cowpoke/hurler hurley
If the Rangers could trade...
…Blalock and something non-pivotal for J. Sanchez, that would have already happened. Andruw Jones wouldn’t factor into the equation on that.
by Adam J. Morris on Feb 7, 2009 4:48 PM CST up reply actions
Blalock...
If the Rangers could trade Blalock (and his salary) for “a bean pie and a bag of jalapeno corn nuts” (Ode to AJM), then they should have done it yesterday and signed Dunn for that $6.2M to DH.
But yes, Jones and a Blalock trade are not related IMO.
Not necessarily
If the Giants emerge as the winner in the ManRam sweepstakes, then all of a sudden they could potentially win the NL West, and subsequently adding Blalock’s bat would arguably make them the favorite in that division.
I was thinking about this before this thread came up, but I think ManRam signing with the Giants would be the best Rangers-related outcome.
Keith Law: (1:45 PM ET ) I think Michael Young should shut his mouth and move to third base.
But my point is...
…that signing Andruw Jones has zero impact on whether the Rangers would make that deal or not.
by Adam J. Morris on Feb 7, 2009 5:15 PM CST up reply actions
Fair enough
My point was simply that Blalock, the Giants, and Andruw are not independent, mutually exclusive entities. Just because a Giants deal hasn’t been done yet doesn’t mean that it won’t get done: if other circumstances (ManRam) change, then anything is possible.
Keith Law: (1:45 PM ET ) I think Michael Young should shut his mouth and move to third base.
Why?
Why would the Giants trade something to the Rangers for Blalock at $6.2M, when they could probably just sign Dunn for the same amount of money?
Does Dunn play 3B?
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
does blalock play 3b?
the answer is no
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
Blalock can
Dunn can’t
SF would be getting Blalock to play 3B
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
They would play him at 1st
and move Pablo Sandoval to third
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
Didn't know that
In that case they probably would just sign Dunn. I thought they needed a 3B
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
They do
I don’t think anyone believes Sandoval can stick at third.
Check the stats, absolutely, but look at the face.
-Bruce Jenkins
I don't think its ideal for them
But I think if it meant getting Blalock’s bat into the lineup, they’d go with Sandoval there. At least that’s what I’ve seen people believe the Giants would do if they add a 1B.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
if blalock could
he would have played 3B and we wouldn’t have had this MY to 3B talk that happened earlier in the offseason
Another one bites the dust! And another one, and another one, and another one bites the dust!
I don't know if thats necessarily true
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
byrd or blalock
i wouldn’t care – as long as the rangers were correct in assessing that jones would be better than either of them.
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
Andruw Jones
-still just 31 (turning 32 in April)
-you can attribute his bad numbers to bum knees and a weight problem – both of which he might be able to correct
-played an average CF last year and a better CF the year before than anyone else we have
Um, what can possibly be bad about signing this guy to a minor league deal? These are the kinds of guys that should do well in Texas and the kinds of guys that will want to come here.
See if he gets in shape at any point in the season, and if he does, you play him.
I mean, we did just sign Jason Jennings.
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
they don't
unless he makes the club
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
And I have this sneaking suspision he will whether he deserves it or not.
If he doesn’t, though, totally agree with you.
i just don't think this is the same thing as sammy sosa coming here
he isn’t quite the name, there is no real momentum, there is no 600 HR mark – there’s just no sideshow element to this.
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
Seems it could be a concern that
Wash might go all Joe Torre on us and start Jones ahead of Cruz/Murph/Boggs, damn the logic.
Keith Law: (1:45 PM ET ) I think Michael Young should shut his mouth and move to third base.
on Joe Torre's team, Jones was making a lot of money
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
And so was Juan Pierre
But according to Bruce Jenkins, Ned Colletti should be GM of the Year for the Casey Blake trade.
Keith Law: (1:45 PM ET ) I think Michael Young should shut his mouth and move to third base.
Good points all
I just don’t want the Rangers to get a reputation for being an elephant graveyard. You know, where old herd bulls go to die.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)
by Ed Coffin on Feb 7, 2009 4:42 PM CST up reply actions
i don't mind
especially since Jones isn’t old or at least potentially he had some other issues. I will take a flyer on somebody like that, especially if it is just a minor league contract
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
Couldn't it also be said
it’s a place for hitters to find their swing and resurrect their career?
Scott Feldman for 2009 AL Cy Young
Scott Feldman for 2010 AL Scott Feldman
yup
and it’s not like we hold on to these dinosaurs. we trade them, we let them get good and take draft picks when they walk, or at worst, we just let them play a year. Granted, I don’t like the last one but that’s still not so bad
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
Bingo...
The question is was last year’s ineffectiveness due to being out of shape with a bum knee, or hitting a career wall?
At 32, and with his track record, how could you not want to bring him in on an NRI to see what he has left? if the answer is nothing left then no harm, no foul. But if he can return to about an .850 OPS, then you’ve got something.
x
At 32, and with his track record, how could you not want to bring him in on an NRI to see what he has left?
Because I’d rather see the guys we already have here.
by Adam J. Morris on Feb 7, 2009 4:50 PM CST up reply actions
Spring Training..
We are talking about an NRI. There are plenty of ABs in Spring Training to see if Jones is in shape, his knee is healthy, and if he has anything left/.
It would not stunt the growth of any other player unless he makes the team. And if that happens, a healthy Jones and his .850 OPS would be a steal, and Boggs can play in OKC all year. The bigger traveshamockery is having a guy like Boggs ride the pine all year in the Bigs.
Boggs is really the only guy that I feel like gets hurt in this
I don’t really care about Byrd/Murphy/Cruz/Cat
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
and you're also right
I don’t think he really gets hurt at all
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
So, then...
What’s wrong with taking a look at Jones in ST?
Say he gets 50-65 ABs, who does that hurt?
You are missing the point
What are you going to do with him?
What do you do if he shows up and doesn’t embarrass himself?
Put him on the major league roster as the 5th outfielder? Try to find someone to take Marlon Byrd or Nelson Cruz?
If you are going to deal Byrd, for example, anyway, why not go with Boggs instead of Jones?
by Adam J. Morris on Feb 7, 2009 5:17 PM CST up reply actions
if Jones does well in ST
I would rather go with Jones because his upside for 2009 is way higher than Boggs.
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
What are the chances of him reaching that, though?
And what does it do for the team down the line?
I assume you are wanting to start Andruw Jones. That leaves you with Cruz, Byrd and Murphy for one OF slot, and you’ve indicated you’d move Cruz for whatever you could get for him, and let Boggs go back to AAA.
I don’t see the logic in it, although that is primarily because I think the chances of Jones being an above average player in 2009 is minimal.
by Adam J. Morris on Feb 7, 2009 5:20 PM CST up reply actions
there is
a better chance of Jones helping the Rangers in ’09 than Sheets…
People like you blindly want(ed) Sheets, medicals be damned. These are the types of players that are interested in signing here.
The down and out, downtrodden, and otherwise rejected by the league. As a last resort they contact the Rangers. And to think, you dropped to your knees(or was that just Jamey) that the Rangers “had” a deal in place for Sheets. Ah, the mighty Hicks….IF a pitcher is injured, IF no other team will have him, then, and only then, might we land an “ace”. Well, actrually, even then we wont be able to sign them.
The absolute insanity of your Ranger observations is confounding at best , institutional at worst.
An F’ing minor league deal to Jones is where you draw the line huh?
You opine, “what would happen to Boggs if Jones makes the team?” Who gives a flying F? If Jones makes the team then I would suggest he’s better than Boggs and will contribute more than Boggs would have… or do you not trust the FO to make these calls?
"If you have a problem with me, you're probably a doucher."
by red shoe ranger on Feb 7, 2009 8:02 PM CST up reply actions
No
Even if Sheets doesn’t pitch an inning he’s still more valuable than a washed up CFer hitting .160. Hell, Sheets could probably hit that well.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
I think Jaramillo
could probably do as much with Sheets this year as Jones. Jones is toast.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
I'm not missing the point...
If the FO feels that Jones is healthy, flip Byrd (who’s a FA after this year anyway) and Murphy is your 4th OF. If Jones isn’t healthy or looks like he’s lost it, cut him and no harm, no foul.
I don’t get the angst over a possible NRI make good deal for a guy who has been a very, very good player for 10 years and is just now 32 years old.
The real question/concern I would have is if he bounces back, then what for ’10? Can you add a team option for the next year to a NRI? Say for like $7M?
Because if Jones has a good first half...
You can deal him for quite a bit and THEN bring up Boggs. It’s not like a half season at OKC would kill his career at this point.
LOL Sorry the Sooners will score more that 14. - boomer1
by vfn on Feb 7, 2009 6:07 PM CST up reply actions
I doubt that...
…if Jones has a good first half, you’ll be able to get that much in return for him.
by Adam J. Morris on Feb 7, 2009 6:23 PM CST up reply actions
Come on.....
You don’t think there would be interest in a 32-year old centerfielder on a cheap contract having a good season?
You may not think Jones has a chance to have a good season, but that’s stretching it.
by Darrell McKown on Feb 7, 2009 6:25 PM CST up reply actions
Bradley...
The Rangers were probably expecting type A draft pick compensation for him. And if you believe the reports, weren’t shopping him. He was a tradeable commodity though, the Rangers just chose not to trade him.
I don't think there was much of a market out there for him
by Adam J. Morris on Feb 7, 2009 6:52 PM CST up reply actions
bradley isn' tthe same as andruw jones
for one pretty big reason
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
They were shopping him
And they probably know how the Elias system works better than us. They knew the chances of him being a Type A vs. Type B as well as what he could bring back in a trade. There just wasn’t anything that good coming back to us in a trade for the best hitter in the AL.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
Type A...
Wasn’t pretty much everyone expecting him to be a Type A? And didn’t he slide to the very top of the Type B list for some weird reason? I remember Jamey adressing this in one of his reports.
We were expecting him to be
But again, I’m pretty confident a ML front office is more aware of a player’s FA status than us.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
He was right on the edge
No matter how well you know the system its really ard to tell in late July that a guy is going to be right on the cusp of type A or not
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
They know the chances though
They know the risk they are taking and if they were getting any good offers for him that were the equivalent of the 1st/2nd round pick, they would have jumped on it.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
Thats where his market comes in
Were any AL teams in need of a DH and offering that type of talent in return?
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Hmmm...
“There just wasn’t anything that good coming back to us in a trade for the best hitter in the AL”
That quote alone should give you enough pause to rethink your position. It’s simply counterintuitive
Damn Quotes...
How do I always screw that up?
How do I tell it where the text I want in the box ends?
Clicking the quote button quotes everything if you don't highlight something specifically
And why is it counterintuitive? Bradley had his fair share of question marks, was on a 1 year deal and would be a solid rental player, and it was a fact that he was the best hitter in the AL. Yet the Rangers weren’t seeing any good trade offers for him. Do you think that Jones and even something like a near .900 OPS would bring back something that much better?
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
Well...
Saying that the best hitter in the AL didn’t have any trade value for a contending team is counterintuitive, unless there were external factors like injury history, excessive baggage, or if the Rangers were asking for too much in return. All very likely in Bradley’s case especially considering how close he was to Type A status.
BTW, thanks for the quotation help….
I've had the problem before on the quotations. It takes some getting used to.
Bringing up Bradley is just an example of how teams aren’t willing to waste prospects on players who have any type of question marks around them. A guy like Jones who hasn’t done anything these past 2 years and who won’t be putting up numbers anywhere near Bradley’s isn’t going to have any higher trade value.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
Let's say his knee is healthy and it looks like he might have something left
Then what do you do with him?
by Adam J. Morris on Feb 7, 2009 5:04 PM CST up reply actions
play him
give him Byrd’s AB’s. I guess Cruz is the odd man out then. Trade one of the other guys now or trade Jones at the deadline.
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
So...
You’re willing to cut bait on Cruz to take a look at Jones?
Really?
Why?
by Adam J. Morris on Feb 7, 2009 5:11 PM CST up reply actions
I'm willing to cut a lot of people if Jones looks good in ST
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
Really?
Again, why?
Why give up on Cruz if Jones looks good in spring training?
by Adam J. Morris on Feb 7, 2009 5:17 PM CST up reply actions
cause why the hell do I want to look at Cruz
for the 5th time if I am getting an above average CFer (average when he’s fat, should be safe bet to be above average if he isn’t or if he’s knees are better) who looks like he’s healthy and can get his bat back?
I think this really comes down to me thinking that Jones will be better than you think is capable and if he isnt’ better, then me having hope the Rangers can tell.
And if you dont’ believe in the second thing, then we are just always going to be screwed as a team.
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
You are assuming that...
…spring training will be sufficient to tell the team whether or not he’s “back.”
You can probably tell if he’s simply done.
But if he’s at the level he was at in 2007? If that’s where he is, he’s useless to this team. And you seem to assume that they’ll be able to determine from watching him in spring training whether he’s going to be a quality player or a marginal player.
Which puts way too much emphasis on what happens in a handful of games against minor league talent.
by Adam J. Morris on Feb 7, 2009 5:24 PM CST up reply actions
yeah, I think they could tell if he's at 2007 levels
but beyond that, if he starts to look like he’s reverting back to 2007 levels, I think they’ll drop him if they need to.
Who is the casualty here? Cruz? I’d rather take my chances with Jones than Cruz
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
If that's the case...
…then we probably should have just DFA’d Cruz months ago.
by Adam J. Morris on Feb 7, 2009 5:30 PM CST up reply actions
Because if you'd rather take your chances with Jones than Cruz...
…you appear to be indicating that you don’t think Cruz has any value.
by Adam J. Morris on Feb 7, 2009 5:42 PM CST up reply actions
thats
rediculous.
SInce we signed Jennings we should just DFA whoevers’ spot he might potentially take?
You bring ’em ALL in and go with the best out of Spring Training. Seems simple enough.
"If you have a problem with me, you're probably a doucher."
by red shoe ranger on Feb 7, 2009 8:08 PM CST up reply actions
So
If Matt Kata comes in and for a couple of weeks performs better than, say, Marlon Byrd, we shouldn’t take any of the peripheral issues into consideration? It’s Kata’s job, period?
What if Kata performs better than Hamilton?
My only point is that if
you can “take a look” at Jennings, you can “take a look” at Jones. Who plays, who make the team, who gets cut? That’s what the FO is for.
Dis you see the big Leach article in today’s DMN? Not bad for the quickly demising rag…
"If you have a problem with me, you're probably a doucher."
by red shoe ranger on Feb 7, 2009 8:41 PM CST up reply actions
I realize you are serious
Maybe arbitrarily serious – but among the forest of outfielders, Cruz at his potential exceeds all the rest (OK just to devils advocate a controversy, a peak upside higher than even Hamilton). Reasonably, I’d still rate Hamilton the top OF’er here, but think Cruz could conceivably out-OPS even Josh.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)
by Ed Coffin on Feb 7, 2009 5:36 PM CST up reply actions
ST...
They wouldn’t be looking at Jones talent level in ST, they would be looking for health and fitness. That should be pretty apparent in 3 weeks time.
So your position is...
…if he’s healthy and in shape, he should be in our starting OF?
by Adam J. Morris on Feb 7, 2009 5:49 PM CST up reply actions
Well...
Healthy, in shape, coupled with our scouting analysis of his level of play during ST. If the reports are favorable, he is a better player than Byrd or Murphy.
You roll with Hamilton/Jones/Cruz and have Byrd and Murphy to play a couple times a week or flip Byrd.
Short answer if he looks like pre-‘07 Jones, yes he’s a starting OFer on this team.
x
If the reports are favorable, he is a better player than Byrd or Murphy.
Well, how favorable?
If he’s healthy and in shape, and the reports are, well, he might be okay, but he’s rusty and it is hard to say how he is, what do you do then?
That’s the point. This isn’t a video game, where you know going in what a player is going to do the coming season. There’s this assumption that you’ll be able to tell in spring training if he’ll be good the coming season or not.
I think that’s not likely to be the case, and I think it is more likely that he’ll show enough in spring training to be fool’s gold and end up getting a roster spot and not contributing than that he’ll actually be a contributor.
by Adam J. Morris on Feb 7, 2009 5:56 PM CST up reply actions
Why?
Health and being in shape do not guarantee anything. Sosa was healthy, he was in shape, Rudy was in love with his bat speed. How’d that turn out? Did I miss Sosa hitting 60 HRs?
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
you missed sosa crushing lefties apparently
if used correctly, sosa would have been a success.
the real problem with sosa was that he blocked botts.
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
Awesome
A platoon DH on a 1 year deal. That’s what rebuilding teams need.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
Maybe we win it all this year.
"My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is,
‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all.
So I’m not going to say anything at all.
Is my mother the greatest or what?"
- Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, after signing Ichiro to a $90 million contract
blocked Botts?
from getting to Japan faster?
"If you have a problem with me, you're probably a doucher."
by red shoe ranger on Feb 7, 2009 8:09 PM CST up reply actions
Its like Adam said
Most sensible people who hated Sosa here and wanted Botts to play wanted to see what Botts had. It wasn’t that they believed Botts was a guaranteed superstar. Botts put up the great numbers in the minors and the team had a great opportunity to try and play a young player in a position where they had no options (they played Sosa and Nevin there after all). Finding out what Botts had to offer in 2007 lets you make a decision one way or another that offseason about him and you likely see him DFA’d instead of a guy like Galarraga.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
except
for the fact that mgt had seen Botts for years and had determined he couldn’t play.
What I read everyone to be saying is that they don’t trust mgt to decide who should make the roster and play. If thats the case you’ve got bigger problems on your hands than whether of not Byrd’s AB’s are getting squeezed.
"If you have a problem with me, you're probably a doucher."
by red shoe ranger on Feb 7, 2009 8:45 PM CST up reply actions
If management determined he couldn't play
Then why was he still here? Why was he wasting a spot on the 40 man roster?
I trust management to make the right decision most times, but they aren’t perfect. There is no reason for Jones to make the roster and even if they decide he can’t play and cut him which is the most likely scenario, you still end up with another Broussard situation.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
well
if they bring Jones in, then you clearly think JD made a bad decision, and if he makes the team I assume you would believe Wash only compounded the poor decision made by JD.
I say bring him in and trust Wash and JD to make the right call at that point…
"If you have a problem with me, you're probably a doucher."
by red shoe ranger on Feb 7, 2009 8:55 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
The problem is...
…you can’t assume that spring training will allow the team to say, “Okay, Jones will be a star” or “Okay, Jones is done.”
Most likely, he’ll show some things, have some issues, be rusty, and leave the team uncertain about what he’ll be able to do.
You seem to believe that if that’s the case, but there still seems to be some possibility he can be a good player, it is worth rolling with him at the expense of the players we currently have, and I don’t see the point of that.
by Adam J. Morris on Feb 7, 2009 5:29 PM CST up reply actions
Cruz...
Why do you think Cruz is the one that get’s hurt by this? IMO it’s Byrd or Murphy (not both).
I don't really care who it is
given expected results (probability * upside), they are all about the same to me.
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
Murphy...
Is he out of options?
If not, then if Jones is healthy Byrd is the 4th OF, Murphy to AAA and wait for Cruz or Jones to fail or Byrd to get traded.
I don’t see this as the catastrophe that you do. An NRI would be a very little risk/high upside signing.
The only risk is that he makes the team undeservedly and sucks.
Really?
I’m no big Murphy fan, but you want to send him to AAA after last season?
Talk about losing the clubhouse…
And you’ve got Boggs, Golson and Borbon at AAA already. Where does Murphy play?
by Adam J. Morris on Feb 7, 2009 5:57 PM CST up reply actions
expert on the clubhouse?
i think people would understand if Murphy had to go down because of andruw jones
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
this poor clubhouse....
DeRo, DeLu, and now Murphy. How would the room ever survive?
"If you have a problem with me, you're probably a doucher."
by red shoe ranger on Feb 7, 2009 8:10 PM CST up reply actions
No one would understand
why a rookie who was very good last year gets demoted for a player who was DFA’d, saw his former team eat around 20 million dollars, and come to camp on an NRI after 2 terrible seasons in the league.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
I agree with that.
This isn’t a team with a shortage of outfielders. There are players in the system already who have a better chance of doing something for the Rangers right now and in the future.
by Black Francis on Feb 7, 2009 4:59 PM CST up reply actions
I think Jones is at a point in his career
where ST will tell you whether he’s a fat has been with bum knees or whether he’s back.
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
Sort of like Sosa?
Who, in spring training, had everyone excited, and ended up posting up a rather mediocre OPS for a DH?
by Adam J. Morris on Feb 7, 2009 5:05 PM CST up reply actions
Like I said
There is no similar inertia with Sosa
and go look at Jones’s ST numbers. He’s not going to be able to cheat his way to solid numbers and good fielding. You’ll know how his knees look, how his gut looks, and how much power he has left.
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
Its a big difference in age
But a player who is done at 32 isn’t better than one who is done at 38
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
But...
A 32 year old has a better chance to rebound than a 38 year old who has been out of baseball for a year. No?
Not if that 32 year old
Has been terrible the past 2 years. There are no negative numbers here. There is a 0% chance that Jones rebounds that much just like there was a 0% chance that Sosa rebounded
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
Don't know if you remember or not
But Sosa was hurt in 2005. He came into 2007 being healthy, being in the best shape of his life, Rudy Jaramillo was talking about how his bat speed has returned, and blah blah blah. Jones has looked like crap these past couple of years, has no one interested in him, and now Texas may give him a shot hoping Rudy can turn coal into diamonds.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
what does "don' tknow if you remember" mean?
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
"The Best Shape of His Life"
Sosa was still 38, and every player comes to ST in “the best shape of his life” every year.
So why are we going to expect Jones to be any different?
Why is Jones looking like he is in great shape and healthy any different from the Sosa’s and the Nevin’s? Those guys at least had some great reports saying that they looked like they got bat speed back and that they were back in their old form. Didn’t Jones get asked to leave his winter league team because he was playing so poorly?
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
fine
then it should be really easy to cut him coming out of ST
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
The problem is the people here
thinking that he if he’s healthy, he’s going to be a great hitter and should make the team. If they want to bring Jones in as an NRI and some insurance for the apocalypse, fine. I just never want to see him making this team’s 40 man roster and definitely not its 25 man roster.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
I agree with
ab03 and Topgun22.
Basically, the Sammy Sosa situation is the WORST-case scenario for a NRI signing.
And I hope that Daniels learned something from it.
I am worried that Cruz will be Bottsed in that sense, but he HAS been given a lot of chances to show something at the major-league level and hasn’t done it yet (excluding last year’s month of excellent hitting).
Here are the differences in this scenario and the Sosa situation:
1) Jones will be in his year 32 season; Sosa was entering his year 38 season.
Jones has a reasonable expectation of getting close to his previous form. Nobody really would expect Sosa to do so. In addition, if Jones DOES do well, we can expect other teams to be interested and he could reasonably be trade for something valuable. Sosa, not so much.
2) Jones STILL plays a solid (if not excellent) CF defense; Sosa was only a DH.
Jones’s RZR the last 3 years (.886 in 2008, .921 in 2007, .924 in 2006)
Jones’s UZR/150 the last 3 years (12.4 Runs saved above average in 2008, 20.5 in 2007, 19.5 in 2006)
3) Cruz has the ability to play all 3 OF positions (albeit CF badly) AND DH. Botts was only a DH.
So, Cruz himself is not specifically blocked by Jones. In addition, Cruz has actually been GIVEN the chance to stick in the majors. Aside from the month and 1/2 from last season, he hasn’t shown that he deserves to be given the starting role.
4) We’ve been in the situation before. I think/hope that Daniels will have learned from the last time.
If not, the problem is more with the front office than the actual move itself.
R
...
I am worried that Cruz will be Bottsed in that sense, but he HAS been given a lot of chances to show something at the major-league level and hasn’t done it yet (excluding last year’s month of excellent hitting).
Why exclude last year’s month of excellent hitting and his whole minor league season last year? Things are pointing towards Cruz being a very good player whether its here or for some other team. This is probably the worst possible time to say, “Well we’ve seen enough of Cruz, lets go bring in some crappy vet”.
As for your points:
1. Rudy believed Sammy could somewhat return to form. I don’t think there is a single person that believes Jones will be anywhere near the player he once was. And teams aren’t giving us Max Ramirez for Kenny Lofton anymore. A good half season from Jones won’t bring back anything in return. You need some elite talent or a player controlled for more than half a season to bring back anything valuable in return.
2. Jones does still play some good CF defense. Then again, if you are worried about his health, asking him to play CF each day is pretty contradictory to the whole “If he’s healthy” line of thinking. Also, we have people who can play CF well. That isn’t a need for this team right now.
3. This team seems to be pretty clear on playing Murphy in LF and Byrd is going to be needing some playing time somewhere. And Hamilton isn’t going anywhere but maybe RF. Cruz might not be directly blocked by Jones signing, but there isn’t exactly room for him to play anywhere else if you put Jones into the OF with Hamilton/Murphy/Byrd.
4. JD may have learned something from the last time, but if that’s the case, then he won’t put Jones on the ML roster after seeing guys like Kata and Sosa suck so hard after promising STs. Even if JD is willing to cut Jones after he struggles, the potential loss of Cruz plus the horrible performance of Jones is a huge net loss for the Rangers.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
Response
I’m not a disbeliever in Cruz.
I’m just saying he HAD his shot unlike Botts. Botts was given very few chances to show whether he could stick. Cruz OTOH had the first half of 2007, the last two months of 2007, and the 1 and 1/2 months of the last two months of 2006 to show something.
That isn’t to say, I’d be totally against keeping Cruz, but that we HAVE given him chances.
Anyways, to the responses:
1) I disagree. You’re predicating things on Jones being bad. If he has a good 1/2 season, I think a lot of people will remember what he gave the previous 5 seasons before his two years of suckitude. Especially considering that his defense hasn’t dropped precipitously like his offense.
2) Really? Who besides Byrd? Hamilton was awful defensively last year in CF.
3) And THAT I think is more the problem than signing Jones to a NRI. Murphy is likely not going to be much more than a 4th OF and the persistence of some to continually tout him as an everyday player (particularly in the organization) is a major issue.
4) Huh? I’m not sure what you’re talking about here. Why would we lose Cruz if Jones struggles? If you’re looking to cut someone, cut the guy who is entering his age 35 season and gives us nothing besides a mediocre bat.
R
The chances of Jennings contributing in 2009...
…are, I think, greater than the chances of Jones contributing in 2009.
And the chances of the Rangers needing someone like Jennings in the rotation in 2009 are much, much, much greater than the chances of needing someone like Jones in the outfield in 2009.
I don’t see how you can compare Jennings and Jones.
by Adam J. Morris on Feb 7, 2009 4:50 PM CST up reply actions
which one
has a greater shot at an All Star appearance? at being traded at the deadline for Engel Beltre?
I guess you heard Fat Joe left Atlantic.
The answer to both those questions...
…is Jennings, I think.
He’s definitely the answer to the second question.
by Adam J. Morris on Feb 7, 2009 4:52 PM CST up reply actions
I wholeheartedly disagree with that
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
I disagree
but I just haven’t seen a lot of washed up pitchers… or “damaged goods” pitchers resurrect their careers in big time hitters’ parks. Can Jennings contribute? Sure. But I doubt he can have that kind of impact.
Last year a ballclub chose to give Jones a 2yr $36 mil deal. In hindsight, that was dumb (though, after the Rangers missed out on Hunter, I think there were many on this board clamoring to sign him to a similar deal). But that miscalculation – and the fact that he’s still being paid because of it – doesn’t mean that another team paying him next to nothing would be an equally poor miscalculation.
I guess you heard Fat Joe left Atlantic.
Jennings
If he comes back and is a solid innings-eater (which is what he’s been most of his career) who has a cheap contract, you don’t think there would be teams clamoring for him at the trade deadline?
by Adam J. Morris on Feb 7, 2009 5:06 PM CST up reply actions
jones v. jennings
you might think so but i think their effective chances of contributing are pretty close.
You are right that the rangers have an everlasting need for warm bodies in the starter’s role rather than the OF but I don’t think Jones is taking anybody’s spot either (Boggs?).
I have to think that Jones ceiling is much higher than anybody he would displace.
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
x
i think their effective chances of contributing are pretty close.
Then you either think Jones has a much better chance of contributing than I do, or think the chance of Jennings contributing something is almost zero.
by Adam J. Morris on Feb 7, 2009 5:07 PM CST up reply actions
apparently the first one
but maybe a little of both. I just don’t Jennings is going to do anything. Either way, I think it is silly for you to be so open to Jennings and not open to Jones. We don’t have superstars in the OF that Jones would displace.
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
x
I think it is silly for you to be so open to Jennings and not open to Jones. We don’t have superstars in the OF that Jones would displace.
No, but we do already have four guys for three positions, Julio Borbon and Brandon Boggs down on the farm who deserve a look this season, and Greg Golson.
I think it is silly to compare the state of the rotation to the state of the outfield.
by Adam J. Morris on Feb 7, 2009 5:15 PM CST up reply actions
borbon deserves a look this season?
I think he can spend some time in AAA
Like I said, Boggs is the only one I care about.
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
Jennings has a much better chance of contributing
simply because the position he plays is a revolving door for us and you can count on injuries and ineffectiveness. getting him on a minor league deal is a good signing. it is also irrelevant to whether or not signing jones would be a wise move, which i think is the point you were trying to make.
by Smoakin in the Boys Room on Feb 7, 2009 4:57 PM CST up reply actions
the point with jennings is just
we always sign players like these who are coming off terrible seasons because of injury and age hoping something clicks. Granted, It has sometimes been to the detriment of younger guys but I just don’t see that as the case here.
And Jones (and his age and relatively recent success) just makes me drool.
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
WUT?
Jones was last good in 2006. Jennings was last good in 2006. Jennings is a bit younger and can pretty much completely blame injuries for his recent poor performance. Jones can only blame his knees so much for the crap he has put up these past 2 years.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
Good Points
At 31, fat is fixable. We’re rebuilding, our best CF prospect is probably one year away, and perhaps we get SUPER lucky and he becomes Gagne-like trade bait in July?
IF Jessica Simpson can comeback, why not Jones?
Why bet on that though
Why waste spots on the 40 man and the 25 man roster so you can waste time with Jones? We have plenty of CF candidates, some are very good defensively there, some may get better. There is no need for Jones here.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
We don't have to do either
He doesn’t get put on the 40 for this invite and doesn’t go on the 25 unless the Rangers determine a need. I’m not advocating putting him on the 40 if Hamilton, Cruz, Murphy, and Byrd are healthy and not traded, but if one of them does go down or get traded soon (because it is a good deal, not because we have Jones), then having him in AAA isn’t a bad thing.
by CS3 on Feb 7, 2009 6:23 PM CST up reply actions
We have so many options
Unless we trade Byrd, Murphy, Cat, and Blalock, there is no reason we need Jones as insurance. Borbon and Golson are already on the 40 man roster as is Boggs. Hamilton’s going to be here and Cruz needs to be playing in RF everyday at least at the beginning of the season. We don’t need Jones here. As an NRI, I don’t have any problem with it. But I don’t want to see him every playing for the Rangers in the regular season and I don’t want to see him cracking the 40 man roster.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
I said underneath that
I would rather have Boggs in AAA playing every day than be our 4th OF playing sproradically at the beginning of the year, just for development’s sake. Golson has a fair amount to prove as well. Cat is about as useful as a bag of dicks. I agree that Cruz needs to play every day and think Byrd and Murphy will be more than enough for our OF, but should one of them be traded or get hurt I would rather bring someone up like Jones to be the 4th OF/DH than Boggs and have him not get alot of playing time.
by CS3 on Feb 7, 2009 6:35 PM CST up reply actions
If the OF was
Cruz/Hamilton/Murphy or Byrd, Boggs would still get plenty of playing time like he did when Byrd was injured. He would be playing more than he did towards the end of the season when Byrd was on fire and you just couldn’t bench that bat.
If you want depth and don’t want to go with Golson, Boggs, Cat, or Borbon, I’ll stick with Ben Harrison and Steve Murphy. I’d rather give them some time in the Majors and hopefully let them have enough service time to catch on to the MLB pension plan than go with Jones. We’d get the same production either way.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
ben harrison and steve murphy?
ok, we’re done here
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
I understand that
Boggs would get more playing time than minimal, but I would still rather have him playing every day in AAA unless we don’t have anyone that can contribute at the same level in a part-time role. If Jones can find his hitting stroke (I know how improbable that is) then we can bring him up to play against LH, if not, we cut him from AAA. Nothing really to lose. If no one gets hurt or traded, he can take his release. I’m not trying to find a way to put him on the 25 man roster, just saying its not a bad thing to have him DH at AAA unless he is blocking someone there.
by CS3 on Feb 7, 2009 7:01 PM CST up reply actions
Reply
Well, that’s a good take. I guess the question is, IF Andrew Jones comes to Texas, and finds his stroke, then is that not ALSO a pretty good thing for our positioning in 2010, 2011?
I understand why people are skeptical, he looked horrible last year. Perhaps my memory of Jones 5 years ago is foolish or sentimental. Might be worth a try if the deal is right.
All Jones does, even if he hits for a 100 OPS+ which is expecting too much from him,
is take playing time away from the younger players and leaves the team with more question marks going into 2010 and 2011. It may turn out well with some of those young players, but if Murphy/Boggs/Cruz can’t play, I want to find out next year and not in 2010.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
who on our projected opening day roster is...
very good defensively there
?
I guess you heard Fat Joe left Atlantic.
...
Byrd and Boggs are. Borbon and Golson are already on the 40 man roster, can put up the same crappy offensive numbers Jones has posted these past couple of years, and play that same type of defense.
I also believe Murphy is passable there and think Hamilton will surprise people this year with his CF defense, but if you don’t want to buy into that, fine. We still have 4 players on the 40 man roster capable of great defense in CF.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
Based on what?
0.6 UZR (3.0 UZR/150)? And I’m pretty sure his +/- was below average.
I think he was slightly above average in PMR, too. Every bit of evidence I’m aware of, he comes out averageish.
it was better than that
7.2/19.5
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=950&position=OF#fielding
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
Oh, I was looking at left field. My bad.
Yeah, that’s pretty good. Although there’s a solid disagreement here between UZR and +/-, and, given the methodologies of the two, in a disagreement I’m going to lean towards the +/- side of things.
And if I’m interpreting PMR correctly, it leans closer to average than very good.
His PMR was 9.12 RAA/4000
He was 6th in baseball last year in CF defense according PMR.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
one or both Borbon/Golson
will be here this year so that is off-base. In this scenario, Signing Jones for 3 months doesn’t make sense and I’d rather keep our eye on the future. Besides, I’m happy with what our starting outfielders bring both defensively and offensively as a group (including boggs) as well as the CF prospects on their heels ; there is just no need to take a flyer on him.
But... But...
"Obama is a Christian - He's always been a Christian...But.........what if he is[a Muslim]? Is there something wrong with being a Muslim in this country? The answer is no, that's not America." Colin Powell on Obama/Muslim assertions.
Maybe he does what every other athlete does and tokes up during the offseason.
Being a star is not easy.
You just don't know when to keep your mouth shut, do you Saxy boy?
by oc on Feb 7, 2009 7:56 PM CST up reply actions
Did you deliberately widen this picture to excentuate the fat?
You just don't know when to keep your mouth shut, do you Saxy boy?
by oc on Feb 7, 2009 7:55 PM CST up reply actions
Not deliberately
no. It was a pretty tall picture so instead of wasting space, I changed the sizing a bit.
"Obama is a Christian - He's always been a Christian...But.........what if he is[a Muslim]? Is there something wrong with being a Muslim in this country? The answer is no, that's not America." Colin Powell on Obama/Muslim assertions.
My mind gets changed really quickly
if we start hearing Sammy Speak surrounding this signing. Being handed a spot is not what I support.
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
I am a little confused
didn’t Jones turn down a Yankees NRI? This can’t be a major league deal, can it?
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
What's the harm?
The guy is 32 years old and 2 years removed from being a star. If his knee is healthy and he’s lost weight, why wouldn’t you support at least taking a look at him?
Right-handed power and premium CF defense is everything hits. Zero lost if it doesn’t.
Because I'd rather take a look...
…at the players we already have in place. I’d rather see Nelson Cruz play every day. If you move Byrd or Murphy, I’d rather see Brandon Boggs get a look.
by Adam J. Morris on Feb 7, 2009 5:22 PM CST up reply actions
well let me save you the suspense
Byrd/Boggs/Murphy do no have the potential to be the star that Jones can be.
That is the fundamnetal difference in outlook. It’s funny, because I doubt either one of us has a good grasp as to whether Jones reverts back to studliness or continues to nosedive. But the only thing I’ll say is that you seem pretty sure that he is going to nosedive and I just don’t’ see why.
If Jones is above average CF with 850 OPS, you really wouldn’t want him here on a cheap contract?
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
Really?
Byrd/Boggs/Murphy don’t have the potential to be the star Jones can be?
Well, stop the presses then.
If Jones is an above average defensive CF’er with an 850 OPS here — something that I think has a very slim likelihood of occurring — but it means giving Nelson Cruz away for whatever you can get at the end of spring training and leaving Julio Borbon and Brandon Boggs in AAA all season, I’ll pass.
by Adam J. Morris on Feb 7, 2009 5:28 PM CST up reply actions
I also don't understand how adding one person fucked over 3 people
seems like it should have only fucked over one other person
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
Everyone gets fucked
Playing Jones everyday next season forces you to DFA Cruz, most likely cut bait with one of Byrd/Murphy, and makes sure Boggs never gets any playing time in the Majors and becomes a 27 year old with little ML playing time.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
and nobody said jones is playing every day
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
unless of course he is
and that would only be the case if he’s doing something awesome, in which case i’m ok with it
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
Sort of like how Sosa...
…was only going to play every day if he was doing something awesome.
by Adam J. Morris on Feb 7, 2009 5:57 PM CST up reply actions
Who would have played in place of Sosa?
"My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is,
‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all.
So I’m not going to say anything at all.
Is my mother the greatest or what?"
- Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, after signing Ichiro to a $90 million contract
Anyone
Giving Botts a longer look in a lost season would have been a good plan.
If Botts gets 400 ABs, the organization may well have decided then, rather than last season, that he wasn’t the answer.
And if that happens, it may be Botts who gets dropped last offseason instead of Armando Galarraga.
So, at the end of the day, Sammy Sosa cost us Armando Galarraga.
by Adam J. Morris on Feb 7, 2009 6:00 PM CST up reply actions 5 recs
See, now that's a good argument.
"My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is,
‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all.
So I’m not going to say anything at all.
Is my mother the greatest or what?"
- Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, after signing Ichiro to a $90 million contract
Question, though
Didn’t the Jason Jennings signing have a more direct effect on Armando being dropped?
"My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is,
‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all.
So I’m not going to say anything at all.
Is my mother the greatest or what?"
- Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, after signing Ichiro to a $90 million contract
So
basically you don’t trust Wash to handle this situation correctly, right?
"Come on man you have to admit the average guy in a baseball clubhouse...... is relatively a douchebag." BGL.
Its not just Wash
Just about every manager in the league falls in love with players and/or feels that they can’t diss veteran players by benching them. The whole debacle with Sosa was because we didn’t want to disrespect such a great player by cutting him loose.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
so is that what you are afraid of?
well then that is just stupid. we can’t bring in a player who has the upside to be very good at the chance that he might be ok and we’d over play him?
I guess we shouldn’t have brought in sheets lest he turn into a below league average pitcher and we would stll play him thinking he’d get better
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
What are the chances of him being very good?
And are the chances of him being very good worth the opportunity cost of not playing the people you have on hand?
I don’t have a problem with trading Byrd if you can get a decent return and running a Boggs/Murphy platoon in LF, which looks, to me, to have the potential to be a pretty solid pairing.
I do have a problem with trading Byrd so we can waste time with a 32 year old has-been during a rebuilding year.
by Adam J. Morris on Feb 7, 2009 6:03 PM CST up reply actions
OF
I don’t think giving Jones a shot would have much impact on Byrd (or Blalock). Cruz is the one who would be impacted, and I think the odds of Jones being good enough to end up getting flipped for something of value in July are better than Cruz having success in the majors after spending half a decade trying and failing.
Regardless of whether we add Jones or not, I think we should be looking to trade Byrd if we can get a good return for him. I don’t think there’s that much difference between Byrd and Boggs as a 4th OF/platoon LF, Boggs is cheaper, Byrd can walk after this season, and Byrd probably has reasonably good value right now based on his last couple seasons and his salary for this year.
by Darrell McKown on Feb 7, 2009 6:10 PM CST up reply actions
His upside isn't that good
Its bull shit plain and simple to think that he can do that much next season. He’s been inconsistent year-year his whole career and has a career 111 OPS+. This isn’t A-Rod or Pujols coming of a bad season or two because of injuries. This is a player who had some great years, had some nice years, and has been terrible these past 2 years as he is now past his prime and in his 30s. His upside is at best equal to what Murphy, Cruz, or Byrd can give this team next year and even a good rebound year for him would probably end up being near what Boggs, Golson, or Borbon could provide.
But hey, Feldman is Koronka, Sheets is the same as Jones, and Cruz is worthless. Right?
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
If you have Jones here
Why wouldn’t he be playing everyday. Either he is good enough to start and you think he can be his pre 2007 self, or he is just a 4th/5th OF. If he is just a 4th/5th OF, why do you not want to go with Boggs, Cruz, Murphy, Borbon, Golson, or Byrd in that role instead? Everyone but Byrd is guaranteed to be here long-term and hasn’t peaked yet. Byrd can at least give you draft pick compensation if he plays enough. And do you want to waste a spot on the 40 man roster for depth in the OF when you have similarly good if not better options available?
And why it hurts everyone is just like I said. You now have 2 OFs who are going to be guaranteed everyday playing time in Hamilton and Jones. You only have so much playing time available for that 3rd starting OF spot and you have plenty of names to go there. So you’ll have to get rid of someone, force another young player into a bench role where they see almost no playing time so that they can try to improve, or move them to the minors. If you send them to the minors and go with Cruz/Jones/Hamilton/Byrd/Cat, you’re not benching one of Boggs, Golson, Murphy, and Borbon in the minors. Each one of those guys gets everyday playing time so you also end up having to force one of them to spend more time in Frisco which doesn’t help anyone. No good comes out of Jones being here unless he is playing like he was in 2006 or earlier and that just isn’t happening.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
If you aren't going to play him every day...
…there’s little point of having him on the 25 man roster.
by Adam J. Morris on Feb 7, 2009 5:57 PM CST up reply actions
Boggs/Murphy/Byrd
Boggs and Murphy are 4th OFer types and Byrd is here on a 1 year deal. Assuming Jones comes in and looks healthy and in shape. What would be wrong with an OF of Cruz/Jones/Hamilton with Byrd and Murphy playing twice a week? Boggs and Murphy don’t have the same ability a healthy Jones does.
Well
Playing Byrd twice a week definitely decreases the chance you get a draft pick for him at season’s end.
And Murphy and Byrd are both probably better players than Jones, so doing that doesn’t help you win games.
And you are going with two backup outfielders, with both your backup outfielders playing twice a week, which seems superfluous.
by Adam J. Morris on Feb 7, 2009 5:43 PM CST up reply actions
NRI...
If Murphy and Byrd are better players then Jones doesn’t make the team. Why is it such a big deal to take a look?
You just said...
…if he’s healthy and in shape, make him the CF’er.
And making a decision on who looks like the better player in spring training is generally a bad plan, I think. That’s how we ended up with Matt Kata instead of Marlon Byrd a couple of years ago.
by Adam J. Morris on Feb 7, 2009 6:01 PM CST up reply actions
Seriously...
You’re comparing Matt Kata to Andruw Jones?
I said if Jones is healthy, in shape, and gets favorable reports from the scouts he is a starting OF. If that happens he is a better player than Byrd or Murphy so your point is moot.
Its not comparing those 2
Its the same type of thinking though.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
it's not
Matt Kata has always been terrble
Honestly, the thing that gets me is Adam thinking that Jennings has a better chance of coming back than Jones. I just don’t understand why.
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
Because Jennings is coming back...
…from a flexor tendon injury that has hindered him.
Jones is coming back from sucking.
by Adam J. Morris on Feb 7, 2009 6:25 PM CST up reply actions
Basically
You refuse to believe Jones was injured.
Jennings sucked because he was hurt
Jones sucked because he sucks (and was hurt)
Remember Jones has been a far better player in his career than Jennings ever thought about being.
I don't refuse to believe that Jones was injured
I am reluctant to believe that Jones sucking was due solely to him being injured.
by Adam J. Morris on Feb 7, 2009 6:43 PM CST up reply actions
why
it makes more sense that he hit a wall at age 29?
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
Was he a user, though?
"My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is,
‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all.
So I’m not going to say anything at all.
Is my mother the greatest or what?"
- Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, after signing Ichiro to a $90 million contract
Difference between Sosa & Jones
Sosa was 38, a non-defender, who sat out the previous year and had been exposed as a steroids-enhanced player.
Jones is 32, recently a premium defender, who’s been awful for 2 years (possibly in part because of a knee injury) but was a legitimate top 20 player for the decade prior to that.
Sosa was being counted on to fill a big need on the team. Jones seemingly is a flier in an area of depth.
The organization seems pretty committed to Cruz. I’m not too worried about him losing his spot unless he does it on his own with an extended in-season period of poor performance.
This one's worse
With Sosa, we didn’t think the team would possibly fall in love with him and not cut him if he stunk. With Jones, well, we saw how Sosa played out
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
What's worse?
"My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is,
‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all.
So I’m not going to say anything at all.
Is my mother the greatest or what?"
- Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, after signing Ichiro to a $90 million contract
why would they not cut jones if he stunk?
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
I know
They’re was Sosa or Jason Botts… This situation is not the same.
"My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is,
‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all.
So I’m not going to say anything at all.
Is my mother the greatest or what?"
- Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, after signing Ichiro to a $90 million contract
Why couldn't we cut Sosa when he stunk?
And who gets DFA’d to make room for Jones on the 25 man roster? This team isn’t going to DFA and eat Cat’s contract right now when they didn’t do it last year. Cruz or Byrd are most likely ending up as the guys that we lose since Nolan and the team have made it pretty clear that they like Murphy. Byrd is pretty much a lock for some draft pick compensation if nothing else and Cruz is under team control for 4-5 more years and has way more upside than Jones does. Cruz can put up a season this year right up there with the best season Jones has ever had.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
There lies the troublesome implication of your argument
Disbelief that Cruz can be the standout OF’er for this franchise. Comparison to anyone else is inevitable, but in the end, each player is unique. “Like” doesn’t mean “the same” in baseball evaluations. And anyone is free to disagree with anyone else’s conjecture about what a player will do. Fact is, the player will produce what the player produces, not in accord with any script generated by past metrics. However, recent tendencies get a lot of credibility (to me, anyway). Andruw Jones has recently gone not down the hill, but clear off of it. Nelson Cruz recently located the hill, and climbed it.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)
by Ed Coffin on Feb 7, 2009 6:28 PM CST up reply actions
Cruz did not climb a hill but
he took a few steps. He’s 29 years old this year and has had one good month in The Show.
One month.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
He actually has had 14 months total
Since accepting a change in his stance to improve his ability to see pitches in their context. His results to that change to a more open stance have been an upturn in power, a factorial improvement in walks, making a nice gain in OBP. Maybe he has a dominant eye or other vision related problem, I don’t know, but the suggested change worked. And that isn’t a simple adaptation.
The 14 months is a kind of guesswork, meant to include Dominican winter league for two sessions, a 37 HR half season+ in AAA, and his late 2008 callup. All pretty convincing.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)
by Ed Coffin on Feb 7, 2009 6:36 PM CST up reply actions
Ed,
Cruz wasn’t very good in spring training last year which is when the Rangers essentially gave up on him. Any team could have had him for a song.
One good month in The Show.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
True
Although I’ve never seen a DFA regained and allocated to AAA burst out like he did.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)
by Ed Coffin on Feb 7, 2009 6:50 PM CST up reply actions
I don't think the Rangers really believed
he had turned any kind of corner either or they would have called him up sooner than they did.
I had closed the door on him but this past September opened my eyes but it also arouses suspicion….something along the way happened to him.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
He was injured in July I think
And would have been called up sooner if available to play.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)
by Ed Coffin on Feb 7, 2009 7:05 PM CST up reply actions
Additional
He was DFA’s on March 29 and Cruz’s contract was purchased from Triple-A Oklahoma by the Rangers on August 25, 2008, after batting .342 with 37 home runs and 99 RBI; for his efforts, he won the 2008 PCL MVP award.
There was about a three week hiatus he couldn’t play, so wasn’t called up.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)
by Ed Coffin on Feb 7, 2009 7:10 PM CST up reply actions
Actually
I think there’s a decent chance Cat gets cut, or traded with the team eating most of his salary, whether Jones sticks or not.
by Adam J. Morris on Feb 7, 2009 6:25 PM CST up reply actions
Why wouldn't the Rangers just cut Cat?
And look at the roster right now.
Guys that will be on the 60 day DL when the season starts – Benoit, Hurley
Guys that could be cut – Bannister, Eyre, Mendoza, Arias, Metcalf, Cat.
The roster really isn’t that crowded right now.
And I think you need to go back and look at what some of Jones’ best seasons looked like before saying Cruz could do that.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
You aren't going to carry this many OFs on the 40 man
And you are forgetting that Vizquel and Guardado are going to be added and it looks like the team is serious about Holland and Feliz at some point. You’ll also end up seeing guys like Doug Mathis be called up at some point in the season which would replace a guy like Eyre or Bannister.
In Jones best seasons, he has had an OPS+ of 136, 127, 126, and 125. One great season , but past that, its pretty much Davis’ rookie year if he played 162 games. Do you think Cruz is incapable of doing what Davis did last year over a full season? If he can be a little better than, he’d be right there with Jones’ best seasons.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
that is a terrible way of evaluating Jones
his OPS+ and nothing else?
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
Fine
Look at his wOBA+. Same basic story there.
Jones wOBA+
Davis’ wOBA+
wOBA+ is more advanced than OPS+, but still says the same thing. Jones, in his best years, was a good player who’s power numbers made him look amazing. He was never Ryan Howard or Adam Dunn though. His low BA had a nice walk rate to go with it, but he never was a .400 OBP player or anything close.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
The Rangers...
already have that many OFers on the 40.
It’s not hard. Cut Cat add Jones (if the Rangers do sign him). Or there could be a deal coming with one of Byrd/Murphy/Blalock.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
Cat's not playing the OF this year
There is no reason to and based off all the defensive upgrades this team has made, I’d be surprised if he plays anywhere but DH.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
OK...
so you can’t have that many OFers on the 40, but you can have guys who can only DH and can’t play anywhere in the field?
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
Asinine statement, gdawg.
Jones hit 51 HR one year with an OPS of almost .900.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
Arguing with you on Cruz is a waste of time
Look at my post above. If you disagree, fine, but I’m not going to argue Cruz’s potential with you.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
Saying Cruz could have a season as good as AJones'
best season is probably the dumbest thing I’ve read on this board – ever.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
That's probably because
you don’t read what you write.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
Whew!
Saying Cruz could have a season as good as AJones’ is probably the dumbest thing I’ve read on this board – ever.
I guess I am off the hook for having that honor.
by Excel Hearts Choi on Feb 8, 2009 8:48 AM CST up reply actions
At first...
this made no sense to me. The more I think about it though, I like it. Under one condition. The Rangers deal or cut Cat.
The is no risk if Jones is here on a minor league deal. I could easily see 4 or 5 guys on the 40 right now that could be lost. Jones would provided another RH bat and could actually play in the OF and Cat can’t. Let Jones take Cat’s place on the roster and I’m fine with this. He was an elite talent at one time. Let him see if he can regain that.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
Here's the thing...
If you are going to try to let him regain that, he needs to play regularly.
If he plays regularly, that’s got to come at the expense of one of the other OFers.
Who is going to sit to make room for him?
by Adam J. Morris on Feb 7, 2009 5:45 PM CST up reply actions
Who is going to sit to make room for him?
How about the 28-year old with a career line of .251/.312/.431?
by Darrell McKown on Feb 7, 2009 5:57 PM CST up reply actions
You mean the one that had a 170 OPS+ when he got called up
and had one of the best minor league seasons ever? The one that is a lock to provide great defense and has a great ceiling and looks like he finally has put it all together? Yeah, fuck him.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
Cruz
How often do players “put it all together” at age 28?
by Darrell McKown on Feb 7, 2009 6:23 PM CST up reply actions
How often do players do what he did last year?
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
The projection systems...
…all seem to see him as one of the 2 or 3 best offensive players on the team this coming season.
by Adam J. Morris on Feb 7, 2009 6:26 PM CST up reply actions
Jose Guillen?
I’d take Guillen’s age 28-31 seasons for league minimum (or a little more after he hits arbitration).
by Adam J. Morris on Feb 7, 2009 6:27 PM CST up reply actions
When did Marlon Byrd put it together?
"My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is,
‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all.
So I’m not going to say anything at all.
Is my mother the greatest or what?"
- Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, after signing Ichiro to a $90 million contract
He can DH against...
LH pitching or give Josh a day off. Let him start a couple times a week in the OF at the expense of Byrd and Murphy. Cruz will be given a couple months and if he fails then there is another open spot.
I also believe the Rangers could be looking at trading Byrd/Murphy/Blalock. I just see this as an insurance move with very little risk.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
What's so great about..
the Byrd, Murphy, Blalock triumverate?
I guess you heard Fat Joe left Atlantic.
last year, yes.
but you seem peculiarly confident that 2009 will yield similar results.
I guess you heard Fat Joe left Atlantic.
Correction...
They are all better than Andruw Jones was last year. A healthy Jones in unquestionably better than any of those 3.
Except,
we don’t know for sure if Jones sucked the last two years because of health issues or because he hit a wall. I don’t think he has any business in the majors out of ST. Too soon to tell if he is really playing well or just did well for a month or so.
by CS3 on Feb 7, 2009 6:16 PM CST up reply actions
I wonder if AJones
is really older than he says he is. Came out smoking as a 20 year old and is flaming out awfully early.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
Wouldn't be the first
Islander to lose a year or three on immigration.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)
by Ed Coffin on Feb 7, 2009 6:38 PM CST up reply actions
I thought most of those false birth dates
were squared away after 9/11 but maybe they missed one.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
I do too
Thinking back, Andruw was a Brave prior to 9/11, no ?
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)
by Ed Coffin on Feb 7, 2009 6:42 PM CST up reply actions
1996 was his first year.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
well that's proof positive
i’m convinced!
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
Correction
They are all better than Andruw Jones in either of the past 2 years. They’re also pretty much as good as his career numbers average out to be (.259/.339/.489 __111 OPS+)
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
No
You are just assuming that his problems the past two years are health related, and further assuming that if he’s healthy he’ll be better.
I don’t think there’s any way you can say that if he’s healthy he’s “unquestionably” better than Murphy or Byrd.
by Adam J. Morris on Feb 7, 2009 6:28 PM CST up reply actions
i don't get this though
you are just assuming that they aren’t health related – without a plausible counterargument like age or steroids.
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
It may be that...
…he’s just not that good anymore.
Or he’s older than was previously believed (remember, he broke on the scene at 19 in Atlanta).
by Adam J. Morris on Feb 7, 2009 6:31 PM CST up reply actions
fine
but your story isn’t any more likely than mine
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
Really?
It is more likely that he’s sucked the past two years because he’s hurt than because he’s not good any more?
Why?
by Adam J. Morris on Feb 7, 2009 6:34 PM CST up reply actions
what does why mean?
why do you think jennings is going to contribute?
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
I don't think I said I think he will contribute
I said I thought he was more likely to than Jones
by Adam J. Morris on Feb 7, 2009 6:35 PM CST up reply actions
Okay
What were the reports out of L.A. last spring about Jones?
by Adam J. Morris on Feb 7, 2009 6:36 PM CST up reply actions
i think you can say
if he’s healthy he’s "unquestionably" better than Murphy or Byrd
about as easy as you can confidently say that Byrd, Blalock and Murphy are:
all better than A. Jones
I guess you heard Fat Joe left Atlantic.
No
Look at what Murphy, Byrd, and Blalock did last year and in 2007. Now look at what Jones has done these past 2 years. Being healthy helps Jones’ cause out, but its very far from being a guarantee that he will hit better than those guys.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
Fair Enough...
I’m assuming that the last two years were aberrations due to health concerns, and at age 32 he can return to a pretty high level.
You’re assuming that the last 2 years he hit a wall and is done. Even though it is recognized that he has been injured.
It’s an agree to disagree situation. Who’s right? I dunno, but I’d be willing to take the time to find out if all it costs is a NRI
It's moves like this
that makes me wonder if JD can take this organization to the next level. It makes no sense at all.
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
This makes me laugh.
"My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is,
‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all.
So I’m not going to say anything at all.
Is my mother the greatest or what?"
- Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, after signing Ichiro to a $90 million contract
Did that really happen?
No way that really happened.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
I hate Michael Young.
"There are no weak opinions with the dirkatron, it’s all scream-across-the-parking-lot echelon." -hightowersmith
It did not
It’s a parody, created from an altogether different question (trachea)
http://www.hoax-slayer.com/elephant-moon-quiz-question.shtml
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)
by Ed Coffin on Feb 7, 2009 8:49 PM CST up reply actions
Yah, that's what I figured.
No one could be that dumb.
Thanks, Edwin.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
I hate Michael Young.
"There are no weak opinions with the dirkatron, it’s all scream-across-the-parking-lot echelon." -hightowersmith
I'm sure a few people are up for the challenge
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
my
hand is up….
"If you have a problem with me, you're probably a doucher."
by red shoe ranger on Feb 7, 2009 8:57 PM CST up reply actions
Jones
I’m fine with bringing him in and, if he looks okay, giving him a shot in CF with Hamilton moving over to RF. Blalock would still be the DH and Byrd the 4th OF.
I don’t think Jones has a long-term role here, but he’s only 31 and if he had a good half-season in our park, you could probably move him for something of value in July before handing CF over to Borbon.
Seems like a no-risk move to me.
If Byrd is the 4th OF,
who is the other starting OF, Murphy or Cruz? and what do you do with the other one?
Who is the DH right now in OKC? If the opt-out is far enough out, say May 15th or so, would it be possible to just let Jones DH for a while in AAA to see if he can get his swing back? I wouldn’t particularly want him over any of our main 4 OFs, but if he can find his swing, which is probably the main thing that people are concerned about, its not a bad thing to have. If our other 4 OFs are playing well or a good-value trade doesn’t present itself, we aren’t required to bring him up at that point, and he can just take his release. But say something happens to an OF or we actually find a combo trade where a team wants an OF, we have someone ready to replace them. I understand that Boggs is down there too, but I would rather he got consistent playing time in AAA for a while instead of bringing him up as a 4th OF this season.
by CS3 on Feb 7, 2009 6:14 PM CST up reply actions
He's already made it clear who he thinks should be cut
Fuck Nelson Cruz because we have the great Andruw Jones. The only guy that was as shitty as Broussard last year but in 3 times the playing time.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
I agree that statement is ridiculous
Just dumb. I think we are talking to eachother in like 3 different spots here.
by CS3 on Feb 7, 2009 6:37 PM CST up reply actions
Jones...
He has never hit for a very high average. But he generally has a good avg to OBP split, and slugs in the .500 range.
If healthy, I don’t think .265/..340/.515 is out of the question
That gives you an .855 OPS
A number he has surpassed 4 times in his career and has come close to in 2 separate seasons. That is over a 12-13 year career.
It just won’t happen when he is 32 coming off his worst years ever. Even if he is healthy.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
Care to elaborate on that
I can say random things too.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
he played in a pitcher's park
his numbers were deflated. texas is a hitter’s park. good lord, stop talking
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
Texas is a hitter's park
to left handed hitters. Is Jones going to also switch hit now or just completely hit left-handed? And I’m sure Dodgers stadium was responsible for his .158 BA and 34 OPS+. Turner Field has also been pretty much neutral these past few seasons and was a hitter’s park in some of Jones best years.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/ATL/2005.shtml
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
in his career, where does Jones hit better, home or away?
what about in 2005? How many times did Jones clear 850 away from home?
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
actually
dont’ look it up – it’s not like Jones hit better every year away, although I think he did most years. I concede the point that Jones isn’t a monster hitter or anything but I don’t think 850 is unreasonable if he’s healthy
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
Again
Why would you think that after these last 2 years and in his age 32 season, he’ll be able to to hit to a point where he has rarely hit in the past. He isn’t going to hit for as much power as he used to, his BA will be bad, and teams won’t be walking him nearly as much now that he can’t hit 40-50 HRs in a season.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
Where is the upside for the Rangers
if Jones makes the team and goes out and hits 25 bombs with an .855 OPS?
All he is doing is using our park to bump up his value so he can get another decent contract. Say hello to Milton Bradley.
There is no longterm upside to having Jones here for one year.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
Compensation
Given his numbers in 2008, there’s no chance you’ll be able to get a draft pick for him.
Milton Bradley had a better season in 2007 than Jones did in 2008 and then had an MVP caliber 2008 season, and was only a Type B.
by Adam J. Morris on Feb 7, 2009 9:54 PM CST up reply actions
Hamburgers are always useful
You won’t end up flipping him for anything much better than that. Slight pun intended.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
That's alright.
I didn’t really wanna know anyways.
You dick that was uncalled for - male cheerleader
nice
way to “correct” your way to a grammatical error.
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
Hey no one freaking reply
To anything that has to do with my comment. Unless you have an answer. Geez.
You dick that was uncalled for - male cheerleader
Oh yea.
All wrapped in exciting Andruw Jones talk.
You dick that was uncalled for - male cheerleader
CHONE
Jones
10th: .202/.284/.356, 0 wBRR
50th: .230/.320/.435, 13 wBRR
90th: .261/.361/.523, 38 wBRR
Byrd
10th: .251/.311/.361, 0 wBRR
50th: .281/.352/.434, 19 wBRR
90th: .314/.393/.520, 48 wBRR
Cruz
10th: .241/.308/.414, 5 wBRR
50th: .271/.347/.495, 30 wBRR
90th: .304/.387/.584, 58 wBRR
Murphy
10th: .236/.288/.346, 0 wBRR
50th: .270/.330/.433, 15 wBRR
90th: .300/.366/.507, 39 wBRR
Boggs
10th: .184/.266/.276, 0 wBRR
50th: .225/.319/.376, 4 wBRR
90th: .265/.370/.477, 34 wBRR
That there. . .
. . . gives me a whole lot less of a reason to want Jones over Byrd, let alone Cruz.
CHONE isn't going to do wonders for a guy coming off injury
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
I think we're giving him a whole lot of credit. . .
. . . to assume his injury, and injury alone, took him from awesome to one of the worst players in the league and there’s a high liklihood of him coming back.
Of course it isn’t going to do wonders for a guy coming off an injury: because that serious hurts his odds of coming back strong.
CHONE doesn't take into account injury
and the whole premise is that if he’s injured – he’ll suck and he won’t make the major league club. if he isn’t, then throw projections out the window
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
I refuse to accept that last sentence.
It may make them less likely, but throwing them out the window is a very bad business decision.
I love that
his 90th percentile is the one that actually has him putting up a respectable season, but still one that won’t give this team much additional offense nor defense, won’t bring back anything valuable in a trade, won’t bring back any draft picks, and hinders the development of more deserving players.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
Yup.
I’m fine with a NRI to spring training, and I’m pissed with putting him on the roster unless he looks absolutely flawless.
Welp
This discussion has brought in just about every possible angle. Barring that Andruw knows Jobu and got his latest wish of course.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)
by Ed Coffin on Feb 7, 2009 6:48 PM CST reply actions
According to Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post, the Rangers have signed RP Brendan Donnelly to a one-year, $950,000 minor league deal. The contract stipulates that if Donnelly is not on the major league roster between March 27 and April 27, he can ask for his release.
"My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is,
‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all.
So I’m not going to say anything at all.
Is my mother the greatest or what?"
- Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, after signing Ichiro to a $90 million contract
Okay, I understand the Denver Post breaking the McCarthy signing
But this one?
"My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is,
‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all.
So I’m not going to say anything at all.
Is my mother the greatest or what?"
- Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, after signing Ichiro to a $90 million contract
Jennings signing, i mean, of course..
"My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is,
‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all.
So I’m not going to say anything at all.
Is my mother the greatest or what?"
- Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, after signing Ichiro to a $90 million contract
JD Started with the Rockies
Maybe one of the Post’s columnists is still plugged in. Or maybe Donnelly’s agent lives in Denver. Could be any number of things.
Troy Renck has a source at the Players Association
He breaks all sorts of small-deal stories like this.
looked at his stats to refresh myself
that was quite a 2003 he he had.
the preceding post was a great success.
played for Cleveland
in 13.2 forgettable innings.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
A point about Cat
If Andruw Jones shows that he’s a viable option, we should just drop Cat if people are worried about roster space.
R
Don't put R at the bottom.
It just makes you look like a douche. I hate when people put their name at the bottom of their comment, they should be banned from posting anywhere.
You dick that was uncalled for - male cheerleader
Well, I'm sorry
you feel that way.
It’s just a habit I picked up.
But I don’t really see what the harm is in it. I’ll refrain from the habit if you come up with a reasonable reason for me not to do it.
R
I told you.
It makes you look like a douche. If you want people thinking you’re a douche then you know go for it. I was just trying to tell you.
You dick that was uncalled for - male cheerleader
This post
and your other one above make you look like a douche at least as much.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
Thanks tball, dirkatron
for the support.
I don’t mind him telling me. I’m just curious for the rationale.
It’s good to get feedback on how you come off. I definitely could improve in that arena.
Unfortunately, I look to the know the reasons why and sometimes people can’t supply them, so when I ask they usually don’t have anything concrete about why I come off bad.
Oh well maybe I’ll just sort of compromise and when I respond to iorange, I won’t post my R :p.
R
I think going after a long time and respected poster like Req makes you look a super douche.
And I think you need to STFU about this now.
I’m just trying to tell you.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
I hate Michael Young.
"There are no weak opinions with the dirkatron, it’s all scream-across-the-parking-lot echelon." -hightowersmith
I don't respect REQ
I’ve never seen a post form REQ till yesterday, so you know. I don’t have any respect for anybody on here. Everyone on here is a fucking asshole who thinks they’re god compared to everyone else.
You dick that was uncalled for - male cheerleader
Relax...
not everyone here thinks they are a god. Some here are just very knowledgeable baseball fans and smart asses.
It’s not a big deal if the guy signs his posts at the bottom either. You calling him a douche for putting an R at the bottom of his posts, which he has always done at least as long as I’ve been around, wasn’t called for. Calling him a douche and saying he should be banned makes it seem like you are playing the roll of blogging god.
And you should have respect for some on here. At least as far as it comes to baseball knowledge. Otherwise why would you even be here?
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
I realize all of that now.
Much respect, for you at least.
You dick that was uncalled for - male cheerleader
LOL.
Best. Hissy. Fit. Ever.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
I hate Michael Young.
"There are no weak opinions with the dirkatron, it’s all scream-across-the-parking-lot echelon." -hightowersmith
Yay, you're the most whiny pussiest!
Yay!!!
The 40 Trumps All!!!
I hate Michael Young.
"There are no weak opinions with the dirkatron, it’s all scream-across-the-parking-lot echelon." -hightowersmith
Why don't you just put it in your signature?
That way, you can have your “R” in each post without actually having to type it there in each post.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
That $6M
is what you refer to as a sunk cost. If Jones + $400K is more valuable than Cat, you get rid of Cat. There is no point to keeping him just because he costs $6M. At the same time, LAD just let go of Jones owing him $22M, so expecting a lot is probably not the safest bet.
by CS3 on Feb 7, 2009 7:56 PM CST up reply actions
Not the Issue...
Cat’s salary is a sunk cost. Cutting him and paying the $4M isn’t attributable to Jones.
The way I see Jones making sense for Texas is as the CF equivalent of Vizquel, with Hamilton moving over to RF.
The Ranges sign him for no risk (assuming JD just cuts him if they don’t like his defense – I’m not going near the Sosa argument) to see if his defense can come back with a little weight loss. If it doesn’t, no harm, no foul. If it does they improve the OF defense on the cheap with a stopgap until Bourbon is ready.
"I'd like to f*ck Sandra Bullock." - Pedro Martinez, explaining his secret ambition to Sports Illustrated for Kids.
I want Hamilton to move over to RF for Byrd, anyway.
And I’d rather give Byrd’s off days to Boggs than Jones, but that would be the situtation I could most live with.
Question, and issue if the answer is yes
I keep seeing “move Hamilton to RF”.. OK, although Cruz is the best fit in RF. The question: when Josh Hamilton plays RF rather than CF, what are his performance numbers? Is he better served by sitting down when he’s worn? Is his bat in the lineup more essential than 135-150 games in CF? I honestly don’t know if his RF numbers are substantially weaker than when he plays in CF, just have a feeling that when he’s pooped, he’s pooped. And his reads whenever I saw him in RF didn’t look that great.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)
by Ed Coffin on Feb 7, 2009 8:25 PM CST up reply actions
Ummm
As CF in 08 282/351/479 OPS+ 119
As RF in 08 372/416/664 OPS+ 167
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
479 PA's vs. 154 PA's, in CF and RF respectively.
And I have to wonder if a lot of those RF PA’s didn’t come at home, since he hit the living crap out of the ball at home and was a mere mortal on the road. (I couldn’t find those stats broken down like that.)
I don’t think you can really read too much into those stats as is.
Small sample size and maybe some ancillary factors we don’t know about, too, like home/road, did he play RF against righties more often than he did CF, etc…
The 40 Trumps All!!!
I hate Michael Young.
"There are no weak opinions with the dirkatron, it’s all scream-across-the-parking-lot echelon." -hightowersmith
I don't think it matters all that much
Ed was saying he thinks Hamilton should sit instead of play RF because he’d be better off completely resting than playing wore out. It would be moronic to expect Hamilton to put up that kind of line over a full season but no matter the circumstances he put it up in what amounted to almost a quarter of the season and when he would play RF it was because he was somewhat wore out and needed a rest. Hamilton moving to RF will not affect his offensive performance like Ed theorized.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
It was a fair question
And I didn’t know either the splits by position (or home/road mix in RF). Pretty well debunks the point in question.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)
by Ed Coffin on Feb 7, 2009 8:52 PM CST up reply actions
"I don’t think you can really read too much into those stats as is."
I agree with this, which is why I think merely improving the defense is all to concern ourselves with much. The potential of less wear and more offense is just possible icing on the cake.
I DO think there are a few reasons to see him as improving in center in ‘09, but hitting Byrd/Boggs level I wouldn’t bank on.
That's what I think will happen
I think he’ll end up being just about average, maybe a little above average. Given his offense, that’s great to have. I do think that there is the potential for him to be one of the top defensive CFs in the game, but its not something I would bet on and I realize its a long shot.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
See, I think being significantly above average is pushing it.
It’s definitely not 90th percentile out-of-the-question stuff, but I wouldn’t bank on it. And I would bank on us being better with Byrd in CF and Hamilton in right.
I want Hammy in LF, Byrd in CF and Cruz in RF.
Hamilton is faster so I want him in LF, plus I think Cruz is a natrual RF and we shouldn’t mess with that.
Cruz’s arm is just as cannon-esque as Hambone’s only more accurate, imo, so I want him in RF.
I think Hamilton would be a plus-plus LF’er with his speed and arm.
And then in ‘10 if everything goes according to plan and we trot out a Hambone-Bourbon-Cruz OF L-R, we’re gonna have one of the very best defensive OF’s in all of baseball.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
I hate Michael Young.
"There are no weak opinions with the dirkatron, it’s all scream-across-the-parking-lot echelon." -hightowersmith
by thedirkatron on Feb 7, 2009 10:00 PM CST up reply actions
Chorus
of ++ "amen"s
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)
by Ed Coffin on Feb 7, 2009 10:02 PM CST up reply actions
I'm not saying significantly above average
Just something like a run or 2 above average. The main thing is that I don’t think he hurts the team anywhere near the level he did last year with his CF defense.
And we would be better defensively like that, but I don’t think its worth the offensive loss. I think things are better off if Byrd is used as the utility OF giving players a rest and letting Murphy have more days off against lefties. I’m a big Murphy fan though.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
re: "I’m a big Murphy fan though."
May I ask why?
I see nothing in his statistical profile to think he’ll ever be anything other than a sub-.800 OPS decent-defense COF.
Even with the boost he got from playing his home games in Lefty Hitter Heaven he could still only manage a .786 OPS last season, which is very much in line with the numbers he put up throughout his minor league career.
I see no reason to expect anything more that from him in the future.
I’d love for you to change my mind, though.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
I hate Michael Young.
"There are no weak opinions with the dirkatron, it’s all scream-across-the-parking-lot echelon." -hightowersmith
by thedirkatron on Feb 7, 2009 10:45 PM CST up reply actions
I'm a fan of a guy who can put up a 115 OPS+ against righties as a rookie.
With plus defense. I may prefer him in a platoon roll, but if half my left field is that I’m happy. I’m not down on platoon players, it’s a nice strategy.
I’m less of a fan of him than most of this site seems to be, though.
CHONE sees him keeping up his offense, FWIW.
385ish wOBA against righties? Yes please. It may only be a roll player, but not a bad roll player at all.
I don’t want him starting over Cruz, but I do want him getting a lot of Cruz’s righty at-bats and a good portion of playing time behind whoever starts in the other corner and maybe DH. Until he starts sucking.
I don't want him taking any at bats from Cruz.
If Cruz bombs, then, sure.
But if Cruz proves he’s anywhere near what he showed last year, then there’s no way on the FSM’s green Earth that the Murf should be snaking his PA’s.
There’s just no ceiling with Murph.
CHONE can say whatever it wants, his minor league and major league track record inspire zero confidence in me.
I’d love to be wrong here, and it’s actually giving me some hope to hear that you and GDawg (who I think are both generally pretty smart dudes) are both so high on him… but I. Just. Don’t. Get. It.
I just… don’t.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
I hate Michael Young.
"There are no weak opinions with the dirkatron, it’s all scream-across-the-parking-lot echelon." -hightowersmith
by thedirkatron on Feb 7, 2009 11:05 PM CST up reply actions
I don't know that I'm that high on him.
I think he’s capable of above average defense and — definitely against one set of pitchers at least — above average offense. That’s a solid player to have.
And I absolutely want him getting significant at-bats because I have every reason to believe these things. Not only from what he put up last season but from his projections. We don’t know that he’s not until he fails, and he can’t fail until he gets playing time.
He has the potential as a solid contributor to the roster and he’s a young player, I want him out there to a significant degree until I’m given some evidence that says he shouldn’t be.
re: "He has the potential as a solid contributor to the roster"
This is what I don’t get.
What about his minor and major league track record make you believe he’ll be a starting caliber COF?
I mean this is a guy who need a big boost from Left Hitter’s Heaven to even manage a .786 OPS last year.
I just don’t understand this need to play mediocre players.
I can’t find one single reason to believe he’s ever gonna be a .800-.850+ OPS player, or that he’s good enough defensively to make up for it if he’s not.
I’d hate, hate, hate to see him taking AB’s away from a guy like Cruz who has the potential to be an actual impact player if things continue to go right for him.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
I hate Michael Young.
"There are no weak opinions with the dirkatron, it’s all scream-across-the-parking-lot echelon." -hightowersmith
by thedirkatron on Feb 7, 2009 11:26 PM CST up reply actions
Agreed
I don’t get the man-love for Murphy from people.
He’s a nice piece (and yes, I overreacted/exaggerated on the Gagne deal), but he has a very, very small chance of being the everyday player that people seem to envision him as.
Cruz, OTOH, has a good possibility of being one (and maybe even better).
R
I'm not part of the man-love crowd of Murphy.
Don’t shove me with them or I’ll flip out. I spent so much time this season arguing with people who insisted on overrating him.
I would rather think of myself as being more realistic: a .330-.340 wOBA guy who’s maybe 10-15% worse than average against lefties and 10-15% better than average against righties and gives you plus defense in the corners.
That’s not an All Star but it’s a good player to have on your roster, and certainly if he’s young a player who deserves time to prove he’s not an All-Star or better than your other young corner outfield options. That from a 4th outfielder is pretty awesome, actually.
My apologies
I was speaking as a general observation.
I never meant that you were part of the man-love crowd of Murphy.
If I did anything to make you think that I included you in this bunch, well, just know that that was not my intention.
R
He was an above average offensive player at every level of the minors.
He had a positive wRAA everywhere. He was above average last year and projected to be above average again this year. His wOBA has been pretty consistent at just about every level and projects to be about the same next year as it was this year.
And that is: average, a little above. And he’s an above average fielder as well. Even with playing a position of low offensive value, he’s an averagish players.
Average players are good to have. If Cruz is better than him across the board and against lefties he should absolutely get the bulk of the playing time, but you don’t know that until you’ve played Murphy a bit. And even if he doesn’t, having an AVERAGE player as your backup outfielder? That’s a really good thing. That’s something many championship-caliber teams don’t have.
He was a 1.6 WAR player last year and there’s no reason to believe that’s not about what he is. That doesn’t seem valuable to have on your roster? And he’s better against lefties, making him useful as a platoon player.
I’m not sure what it is that makes him not valuable expect maybe a backlash against the vast overrating he got from LSB for much of the regular season.
Is his defense really plus, though?
I’ve seen conflicting reports, and he didn’t wow me as I watched. Not a great arm and not very fast. Too slow for center, not enough hose for right, imo. (Though I know I saw some stats that said he was actually better in RF than in LF last year. I chalk that up to SSS, personally.) Pretty much confined to left field. Above average, maybe. Plus, no.
Of our top 5 OF options going into next year (Hambone, Cruz, Byrd, Boggs, Murf) I’d say he’s by far the worst defender.
I guess I could see him as part of a platoon, but Byrd is a better fielder and outhit him versus righties last year, so what’s the point?
The 40 Trumps All!!!
I hate Michael Young.
"There are no weak opinions with the dirkatron, it’s all scream-across-the-parking-lot echelon." -hightowersmith
by thedirkatron on Feb 7, 2009 11:02 PM CST up reply actions
I definitely disagree about his arm.
And yes, I do think he’s a plus defender. Coming up scouts thought he could play center, and the stats bared out his being plus. I have no reason to believe he’s not and several reasons to believe he is.
If he ends up not being plus it happens, but I’ll need evidence of that.
And I'll take him as a better defensive option than Hambone.
And also maybe Cruz, but not Boggs.
I think it’s close enough I could see that changing, though.
Hmmm... the BA scouting reports all listed him as a tweener, a guy with the bat of CF'er and the defensive skills of a COF.
Maybe I’m being too hard on his arm, seeing as how the other OF’ers we have all have absolute cannons it might’ve just been a product of how weak it looked by comparison.
Coming up though the minors people thought Cruz, Hambone, Boggs and Byrd could all be CF’ers, too.
I think a lot of this is semantics.
To me plus means way above average. A guy who truly impacts the game with his glove by being out there. I think Murphy is a good LF, but I don’t see him as an impact defensive LF.
But what I really don’t get is your confidence in his bat.
He’s a league average COF with almost zero chance of being a true an impact player.
From my COF’s I want truly plus-plus defense and/or an .850+ OPS.
I see almost no chance of Murphy providing either of those things.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
I hate Michael Young.
"There are no weak opinions with the dirkatron, it’s all scream-across-the-parking-lot echelon." -hightowersmith
by thedirkatron on Feb 7, 2009 11:18 PM CST up reply actions
I agree.
Though there is something to say about consistency as well. I think Murphy could give us a consistently above-average left field with an OPS of about .780ish during his peak years up through 2011 for fairly cheap. There’s something to say about having that option.
That being said, I agree with you. He’s nothing special.
What about
Good defense and an .825 OPS? I think Murphy could do that next year. And the league average for RF was a .798 OPS and for LF it was .786 (what was Murphy’s OPS last year again?). I think most of the league’s best bats that play a COF spot play it because they aren’t all too hot defensively so if Murphy is above average offensively and above average defensively, I don’t see why you wouldn’t take that. Of course, we could have better options that could kill the value a mere above average player has to this team, but that’s a different story. If Murphy ends up being trade bait because Cruz/Borbon/Hamilton is that dominant, so be it. My prediction is that Murphy ends up being forced into a 4th OF role because the other options are just that great. Championship teams need great role players though and having Murphy around in case of an injury is some nice depth.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
Murphy's wOBA was pretty much right in line with his minor league numbers.
And that’s about a league average performance. Slightly below average left, but not by much (about 3.2 runs below the average corner outfielder according to FanGraphs last season). He made that up in defense with 4.6 runs via UZR (he was, I think, exactly average with his RF vs. LF splits combined by +/-).
But why play a league average guy when we could be playing someone better?
I’m going to stop arguing this now cause I’m going to go insane.
But let me just speak my mind here:
I will never understand the logic of going out of our way to create AB’s for a sub-.800 OPS COF who doesn’t provide spectacular defense.
He should be behind Byrd, Cruz and Hambone on the depth chart, and by the end of the year he should be behind Bourbon, too.
Any PA’s he gets should be as a result of one of the big 3 (or Hank or CD) needing a day off.
He profiles as a 4th OF to me, and I don’t think he’s got a realistic shot at ever being anything more than that.
I guess you disagree and see him as potentially being more, but I just don’t see it.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
I hate Michael Young.
"There are no weak opinions with the dirkatron, it’s all scream-across-the-parking-lot echelon." -hightowersmith
If you think a league average player can't be more than a backup. . .
. . . I think you have unreasonably high standards for starters. If you think Murphy is likely to be below average, I’m not sure what you’re looking at.
The only reason I would keep him exclusively on the bench is if you’ve given him enough playing time in the season that you’re confident Cruz (or anyone else, but likely Cruz) is going to be better than him in every capacity.
I don’t know how you can be certain that will be the case. I’m not certain it won’t be, I want enough plate appearances to be certain.
You guys agree more than you seem to think
Murphy is better against RHP than LHP, and useful if used correctly.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
I think he cracks the .800 OPS mark this season
I think he’s very good against righties and I do believe he is better than he showed last year against lefties. I’m also a believer in how John Sickels rates players in that at some point, in that after you go through all the data, all the scouting reports, the stats, etc., you make your own judgment and sometimes you just take an optimistic view on a player. Its a “gut feeling” that Murphy will improve against lefties from last season to where he could become more than just another Cat on offense.
And I think you are really selling him short for what he was able to do as a rookie last year. While his minor league career says 4th OF, players have been able to improve their game in the Majors and Rudy Jaramillo has played a strong role in a lot of players’ developments. I’m not predicting him to be a superstar player, but I do think he’ll be improving to where he becomes a solid everyday player. Maybe he doesn’t play everyday here, but he will be able to.
His defense is fine too. LF in the Ballpark isn’t easy and he was handling it fine. He isn’t the fastest, he doesn’t have the best arm, but I think he does everything good to where he is above average defensively at LF. Probably not the best fit in CF, but he can handle it if we needed him to.
On a related sidenote, THT has their Outfield Arms stats up so you can check out Murphy’s above average arm in LF. As you would think, he doesn’t kill many plays, but does a good job of holding the runners and was worth 2.4 runs last season in LF. Also as you’d expect, he didn’t do so hot in RF.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
You're missing
the park-adjustment factor for TBiA especially for LH hitters.
.294/.335/.488 = At home
.257/.308/.444 = Away
Either way that OBP is below average and is the most important aspect.
R
That OBP suffers a lot from that BA
and a .279 BABIP. Plus his 113 OPS+ against righties is park adjusted as is his 108 OPS+ including his performance against lefty pitchers.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
But the park adjustment
is a mass-applied adjustment.
You just said yourself, that TBiA favors LH hitting more (which I agree with).
So, what’s the point of using mass adjustments?
And that disregards his minor league stats which mainly scream 4th/platoon OF.
R
Good point
I always forget to check firstinning.com, but they have park factors for splits too. Funny enough, the Ballpark doesn’t show up in their lefty splits category. But looking at the differences between the overall splits and the lefty splits, it looks like the Ballpark really boosted singles for lefty hitters but cut down on doubles and HRs for them by a decent margin. The Ballpark deflated HRs by .007 but for righty hitters, it boosted it by .007. Nearly the same thing with doubles.
I don’t disregard his minor league stats, but right now we have 592 Major League PAs to go on. I put a lot more value in those PAs over his minor league stats from a year and a half ago. He was also a 1st round draft pick for the Red Sox so at some point, the Red Sox believed he was going to be a lot more than just a 4th OF/platoon type.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
What I meant by significantly above is:
Above enough to call him any more than average. I’d call two runs above average average.
I would expect marked improvement from him in a full season of centerfield, though. I think we might be on the same page, just different terminology.
I'm more concerned about the defense than less wear and tear.
Though I can certainly see evidence that he benifits from a less demanding position, as well.
Also, I say Hamilton to right, but I could be fine with him in left, too. Just not center.
We don't have many good SS choices here
There are a couple of guys that aren’t quite ready to give it a shot and there are some guys that are ready but are a poor fit defensively there. The Rangers have plenty of options in the OF that they could go with and some CF options in there as well.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
When someone can show me convincingly
That bringing on Sammy Sosa hurt this club more than helped it (and hint: that doesn’t involve Jason Botts), I’ll worry about giving minor league contracts to veterans. And I also fail to see how this is different from Jason Jennings
About 2 million dollars for:
About 2 runs (not wins, runs) above replacement on offense from a DH getting 450 PA at age 38 on a team with no real chances and young players deserving of an audition?
It sure didn’t help, and it’s EXTREMELY easy to argue it hurt.
Pardon me.
500,00 dollars, worth close to 2 million (including defense which I think was fluke more than anything). I will rescind the financial part of it.
sides have been drawn...
and you now find yourself on the same side of the fence as Josey and myself…. At this point you should probably question everything you think you know about baseball….
"If you have a problem with me, you're probably a doucher."
woops,
reply to JBI^^^
"If you have a problem with me, you're probably a doucher."
by red shoe ranger on Feb 7, 2009 8:48 PM CST up reply actions
There is a difference
I haven’t read the posts above, but I can guess what your stances are compared to the horde following Adam. And I imagine your rationale differs significantly from mine.
Here is my rationale:
1. There is zero direct cost associated with having him come in on a minor league NRI deal.
2. If he returns to form and helps the team, then he either helps the team compete or is a good trade chip
3. If he is as bad as before, then there is little cost in letting him go
The only “risk” I see is that #3 proves true and the Rangers keep running him out there day after day. And I guess that could happen, but that would require that JD really is a bad GM, which I don’t believe to be the case. Being so paranoid that JD will screw this up is just the same as Galloway being paranoid JD will ruin all of our young pitchers or Josey being paranoid that JD will trade away everyone before they are productive.
by JBImaknee on Feb 7, 2009 9:26 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
im right in this camp
i think the thing i like most about this is that we can turn something that costs us absolutely nothing into prospects in a trade. If Jones returns to having an even mediocre offensive season for him (ie a .335 OBP and .470 SLG%) he’ll be a very valueable trade chip come July, especially in a declined economy b/c jones would cost the contending team nothing. Throw in the fact that he plays a plus CF when healthy and his value vs. what his cost could be (the only negative is the lack of development for Boggs and maybe Cruz) is well, well worth it.
I really dont see how you cant see that. If he sucks, and we dont realize it til the end of April then even then it would cost us very, very little. We have alot of roster openings now with Hurley and Benoit on the 60 and we dont know what will happen with injuries in spring training. Throw in the realistic possibility that Byrd could be traded b4 the season and this deal does make sense.
Chris (NJ): I am personally offended at how you ranked a prospect from my favorite team, even though I do not know said prospect, nor have I ever seen him play. In my opinion you only have your job because, like your employers, you have an unholy bias towards my favorite team’s rival. Also, you’re short.
Keith Law: You’re right. I am short.
x
We have alot of roster openings now with Hurley and Benoit on the 60
Guardado and Vizquel take two of those slots.
Turnbow or Donnelly probably make the team and take another 40 man roster spot.
If Jones returns to having an even mediocre offensive season for him (ie a .335 OBP and .470 SLG%) he’ll be a very valueable trade chip come July, especially in a declined economy b/c jones would cost the contending team nothing.
What do you think the chances of that happening are? 5% 10%
And there aren’t at this point a ton of teams that look like playoff contenders that appear likely to be needing a starting CF’er come late July.
by Adam J. Morris on Feb 7, 2009 9:49 PM CST up reply actions
5 to 10 percent?
if he’s healthy id give him a 50/50 chance of him doing that. Especially with the faith i have in Rudy, and the fact that our park is one of the best hitting parks in the LG.
If he’s not healthy or very obviously out of shape, then he’s an easy cut at the end of spring training no harm no foul.
Do you think a somewhat productive Andruw Jones would be less valueable then Kenny Lofton? There will always be an oppurtunity to deal him (obviously sometimes more ideal than others) but to negate that possibility right now is reckless. And like i stated earlier, what if we are contending, isnt an 800 OPS CF with good Defense a nice thing to have.
I dont see how this is in anyway that much worse than alot of these other NRI’s we’ve had and you’ve supported. I mean, you’ve supported the signings of all these NRI Pitchers but if you look at the Rangers history of NRI players we’ve done a whole hell of alot better with the hitters.
Chris (NJ): I am personally offended at how you ranked a prospect from my favorite team, even though I do not know said prospect, nor have I ever seen him play. In my opinion you only have your job because, like your employers, you have an unholy bias towards my favorite team’s rival. Also, you’re short.
Keith Law: You’re right. I am short.
"the fact that our park is one of the best hitting parks in the LG."
It really isn’t. Its great for lefties, but I think its pretty much neutral for righties. Since Jones is a righty, the Ballpark shouldn’t have that much of a positive effect on him.
Lofton was 2 seasons ago. Things worked out perfectly for JD that deadline because I think that is the last time we’ll see teams that willing to move good prospects at the deadline for non superstar players. Teams are placing a much higher value on prospects now than they did a couple of years ago just like teams are finally being stingy with their money when it comes to mediocre players.
The biggest problem I have with Jones coming here is that we simply don’t need him. We have Murphy who put up an .835 OPS against righties last year and started looking like he could handle lefties before he got hurt. We have Cruz, who is questionable but I’m not betting against that talent and what he did last year. And we have Byrd who put up an .842 OPS last season. Even if we didn’t have Hamilton and we platooned Murphy with Boggs, we’d still see an OF that can put up an .825-.850 OPS with great defense in each position.
The Rangers history with NRIs might be better with hitters than pitchers (never actually really looked at the team’s history with that), but we just don’t need any position players unless you are talking about SS or maybe 3B (if you want a good back-up for Young).
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
re: "It really isn’t. Its great for lefties, but I think its pretty much neutral for righties."
You know, I keep hearing this, and I’ve read about it and seen the stats to support it, and I’ve even repeated it on here a few times, but…
Isn’t it odd that most of our righties still seem to absolutely crush at home and be much worse on the road?
It would seem like if our park was so righty neutral that our righties would have much more even h/r splits, wouldn’t it?
Some career OPS numbers for our notable recent long time RHH’s:
Kinlser.
Home: .915
Away: .752
Face.
Home: .850
Away: .728
Soriano hit much, much better in Arlington than he did on the road. In 2005 he hit 1.011 at the BPiA and .639 on the road. (Editor’s note: Wow!)
And Arod had an OPS at least 100 points higher at home than he did on the road in each of his three seasons in Tejas.
Gerald Laird was the only exception I could find, hitting slightly better on the road than at home. (I guess home cooking wasn’t one of his five tools.)
So, even though the park factors continue to show this place plays righty neutral, maybe there is some reason to believe that our righties can take advantage of the park here just fine.
Maybe that’s a Rudy thing, or maybe that’s just a “guys hit better at home no matter what thing”.
Or, of course, maybe it’s a system of blinking lights out in CF thing.
Who knows?
Not me.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
I hate Michael Young.
"There are no weak opinions with the dirkatron, it’s all scream-across-the-parking-lot echelon." -hightowersmith
by thedirkatron on Feb 7, 2009 10:27 PM CST up reply actions
Which of those hitters
are good at going the other way or at least using all fields. I’m not sure that that would even be that much of a consideration, but could those RH hitters be using the short porch in right to up their power numbers?
I think its a few things
I think part of is just natural. Players hit better at home than on the road unless you play in a major pitcher’s park. I think that goes into part of what Rudy does though and the type of hitters those guys are. I think Rudy probably has them taking advantage of their home ballpark a bit. And there probably are a few other factors that go into this happening. Maybe opposing pitchers who come here can’t handle the heat. Maybe opposing pitchers are affected mentally by thinking they are pitching in the AL’s equivalent to Coors field.
The real test is how do other righty hitters do here vs. lefty hitters? You should look at the guys that don’t play here often enough to know how to take advantage of the Ballpark. That’s why you would have the stats leaning towards a neutral park for right handed hitters despite righty hitters for the Rangers being much better at home than on the road.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
Here's the thing
Him coming here as an NRI isn’t a problem. The problem is that ST stats mean nothing and seeing that he is healthy and “in shape” doesn’t mean he’ll be back to the player he was in 2006. Health wasn’t the only reason Jones was terrible these past 2 years.
Will it cost the team a lot? If they realize he sucks and cut him before the end of May, probably won’t cost them too much. But it is still a net loss because of his well below average bat even with that CF defense.
And what is the reward? What does this team gain if he manages to reach ? In his last productive year, he had a 126 OPS+ when he was 29. If he was just on a steady decline these past couple of years instead of hitting a wall, I think you’d still only project him to be hitting for a 110-115 OPS+. You aren’t getting draft picks, that’s pretty much a guarantee even if he hits like Pujols. What do you think that can bring back in a trade when teams are valuing their prospects more than ever? Realistically, you’ll end up having to stick with him or add some AAAA player to your team by trading him. How does that help the team in 2009 from what we currently have? How does that help the team from 2010 on?
And I won’t even go into the other ramifications of bring another OF to this team right now. I’ve talked about that a lot throughout this thread.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
so
making a trade like we made with kenny lofton doesnt help the team in the future. I really dont see why people cant see this is exactly what JD has done the best in his time as a GM, pick up guys who have alot of value when they’ve played up to there abilities, but he picks them up when they are down. IF AJ does come back and play anywhere close to his abilities, id put a 95+ percentage of him being traded for something good in the future
Chris (NJ): I am personally offended at how you ranked a prospect from my favorite team, even though I do not know said prospect, nor have I ever seen him play. In my opinion you only have your job because, like your employers, you have an unholy bias towards my favorite team’s rival. Also, you’re short.
Keith Law: You’re right. I am short.
See my above post
We aren’t going to get another Max Ramirez for Jones. Look at what happened at the deadline this past season. JD would have loved to flip Bradley, Guardado, Vazquez, Cat, Laird, and probably Byrd too. The only problem was that the market for those rental players wasn’t there. Look at the package of junk the Reds got for Dunn. A half season of Tex only got the Braves Kotchman+Marek even though they held a ton of leverage over the Angels who desperately needed a bat for the playoffs. There was a reason the Rangers ended up holding on to all of their players at the deadline last season.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
even in a depressed trade market
like last year, the team recieving Jones would have to pay significantly less in terms of salary then the players you listed that got dealt last year. Were talking maybe a couple hundred grand, also even if Jones just brings us back a nice young latin Arm like another Carlos Melo, would that not be a nice deal for a few months of less playing time for david murphy or Nelson Cruz?
Chris (NJ): I am personally offended at how you ranked a prospect from my favorite team, even though I do not know said prospect, nor have I ever seen him play. In my opinion you only have your job because, like your employers, you have an unholy bias towards my favorite team’s rival. Also, you’re short.
Keith Law: You’re right. I am short.
Teams at the deadline aren't that concerned with money
They’re playing for the playoffs. They aren’t going to risk missing the playoffs over a few million dollars.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
UPDATE per mlbtr
8:58pm: Jeff Wilson writes in the Dallas Morning News that Andruw Jones worked out at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington Jan. 26. Rangers GM Jon Daniels confirmed that Jones worked out with Rudy Jaramillo, the Rangers hitting coach.
Wilson writes that Jones would probably be offered a minor-league contract with an invite to Spring Training.
"My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is,
‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all.
So I’m not going to say anything at all.
Is my mother the greatest or what?"
- Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, after signing Ichiro to a $90 million contract
Andruw Jones defense
CHONE projects his defense at 8 in a corner spot and 1 in CF next season. I’m not really sure what that means though. Can anyone here explain the CHONE defensive projections?
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
I'm pretty sure. . .
That means, per 700 PA, he’d be a run above average in center and 8 runs above average in the corner.
heh, I had a feeling you'd be the one that would be able to answer
That’s what I was thinking, but I didn’t know if it was per 700 PAs, per 600 or just based on his expected playing time. Either way, given how everyone thinks its a great idea for Jones to be here because at least you have great defense, that really doesn’t help their cause if that projection is even close to right.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
It's either expected playing time or per 700.
But either way it’s a pretty small difference in this case.
wow
this thread gave me tired head.
buy i do think most people are being myopic by saying there is no upside in bringing in Jones. If Jones makes this team after a lukewarm spring in which he shows his old talent level but also appears rusty, then he makes the team as a fifth OF and you see how he does in real ABs. If he doesn’t perform, you cut bait. If he does look to be an asset, you shop Byrd (who will have very legit value all year long) for pitching help, or you hold onto all of them. The idea in building a roster is to a) put together the best group of 25 players that you can and b) be conscious of the development of your younger players. This move would allow the young Rangers OFs (Boggs, Borbon, Golson) to play in AAA full time until they are ready. Depth is never a bad thing. Don’t let the memory of Sosa cloud your judgment on this.
So who do you lose to make Jones the 5th OF?
I don’t see the point in wasting the roster space on a 5th OF. Yeah he can get better, but you are costing other players ABs by playing him and its tough to see a guy in his situation being able to shake off rust in 5th OFs playing time. You’d probably just end up wasting time with him by playing him as a 5th OF, even if he was physically able to go back to 2006 form.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
Costing players ABs
Who exactly are you worried about losing AB?
Cruz if he shows something is likely to play every day.
Murphy IMO is a 4th/platoon OF.
Byrd is a 31 yo (1 year younger than Jones) who likely will be leaving at season’s end.
Boggs IMO would have his development hurt more by being a 4th OF in the majors.
Borbon hasn’t played a game above AA and could do well with some AAA seasoning.
Golson also hasn’t played a game above AA and could do well with some AAA seasoning.
R
We have in our Major League OF
Hamilton, Byrd, Cruz, and Murphy. Hamilton plays every day. So that leaves Murphy, Byrd, and Cruz for 2 OF spots. Cruz needs to be playing just about everyday to begin the season, even if he doesn’t crush the ball right out of the gate. There is no reason the Rangers shouldn’t be giving him every chance to succeed through at least May. That means that Jones would have to compete with Murphy and Byrd for playing time.
You say that Byrd is a year younger than Jones and will likely leave at season’s end. Umm, what exactly do you think Jones is going to do? Byrd gets us draft pick compensation and possibly Type A compensation while Jones has no chance of being even a Type B. Plus, if Byrd repeats last season, he’s putting up a season as good or better than just about every season Jones has played in when you look at his defense and offense combined. The exception of course being Jones’ 51 HR season. So why would you bench Byrd for Jones? Both are gone after this season, Byrd can at least bring something back when he leaves while Jones does nothing, and even in the most optimistic scenarios for Jones, he’s putting up numbers similar to Byrd last season.
Murphy. Why wouldn’t you let him prove one way or another whether he is just a 4th OF/platoon type? And if he is just a platoon type, why would you bench his great hitting against righties for Jones who has historically been much worse against righties than lefties. His career OPS of .816 against righties is worse than Murphy’s. So like with Byrd, why would you want to have Jones hitting against righties and taking away playing time from Murphy when Murphy has been better against them than Jones? Isn’t the whole point of bringing Jones in for this season to get some improvement for 2009? I have yet to see any reason why he would be better than our current options.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
I don't know if I would go that far
Byrd’s 08 is not as good as all but one of Jones’ best years. Jones won considered a premium defensive CF for about a decade or so and had a career OPS around the same as what Byrd got last year. I know OPS doesn’t explain everything, but they are different hitters. I’m not going to try to compare them right now in their careers, because I think Byrd is the better player in all aspects until Jones shows everything something remotely similar to his old self, but you can’t undersell Jones that much.
They aren't similar players at all, but
take a look at what Byrd did last season. If you look at OPS+, it was pretty much right there with some of Jones’ best years. If you prefer wOBA, again, its pretty close to most of Jones top seasons with a couple of exceptions. And since Byrd’s defense is pretty damn good too, Byrd repeating his 2008 or being between his 2007 and 2008 numbers gives you something close enough to Jones’ best seasons. And I don’t think anyone is expecting Jones to have one of his best years here with Texas even if he is healthy and back in form.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
What?
How did you come about this statement?
Plus, if Byrd repeats last season, he’s putting up a season as good or better than just about every season Jones has played in when you look at his defense and offense combined.
Byrd – ONE year of 123 OPS+ and UZR/150 of 12.1
Jones – FOUR years of 125, 127, 136, 126 OPS+ and UZR/150 of 18.6, 26.0, 25.4, 28.6, 19.5, 20.5 and 12.4 in the last SEVEN seasons.
So, Byrd in his BEST season is
1) worse offensively than FOUR of Jones’s previous seasons
2) worse DEFENSIVELY than EVERY SINGLE SEASON that we have UZR/150 data on.
Not only that, Byrd has ONLY done it for one season, and yet you seem to want to make the bet that he can do it again at age 31 (an age where most players are usually declining).
I’ll grant you the potential Byrd Type A FA, but it’s not completely unheard of for players to get Type B status if they do well enough the second season.
The point of Jones is to potentially get value for something in the future and MAYBE SEE if Jones can figure into a run in 2010 (though that’s highly unlikely at this point).
R
We're talking CF here with Byrd and Jones
Byrd last year put up a UZR/150 of 19.5. You don’t think that a 123 OPS+ and a UZR/150 of 19.5 is pretty comparable with the best Jones has put out there? You are ignoring the 7 years, including the last 2, where Jones wasn’t able to top that OPS+ or 8 years where he wasn’t able to top Byrd’s .370 wOBA. What is more likely, Byrd being able to duplicate his numbers from these past 2 seasons or Jones being able to put up numbers he posted 3+ years ago?
Don’t forget that in 2007, Byrd put up a 113 OPS+ and a .350 wOBA. Its not like Byrd was only great for one season. Also, if you’d like to talk about things that happened a few years back, Byrd’s rookie season was pretty damn good too.
Adam pointed this out somewhere else in this thread too, but I’ll repeat it for you. Bradley put up an MVP caliber season offensively last year and was great in 2007 too yet he wasn’t even a borderline Type B. For Jones to be a Type B next season, he’ll probably have to be good enough to easily win the MVP and that isn’t a guarantee. The rankings are based off things like RBI totals, HR totals, and BA. Things that Jones falls terribly short in as of now.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
I'm not ignoring anything.
Look at the quote again.
Plus, if Byrd repeats last season, he’s putting up a season as good or better than just about every season Jones has played in when you look at his defense and offense combined.
This is what YOU said.
I’m not ignoring the years that Jones had the last 2 years. YOU are ignoring the whole rest of Jones’s career to try to argue your case.
You want to go into more details. Fine, let’s do that.
For all the my supposed “ignoring” of Jones’s “not as good as Byrd’s year” years, you seem to be doing a LOT more cherry-picking.
Or are you going to ignore:
OPS+ of
111, 54, 87, 76, 113 in 2003-2007 the best of which Andruw Jones has equaled or bettered 7 out of the past 11 years.
And are you going to ignore:
UZR/150 of
14.4, -17.0, 5.6, 3.8, 11.7 in 2003-2007, the best of which Jones has bettered for 10 out of the last 11 years.
And if you want to look at CF UZR, check out Byrd’s before last year.
14.4, -17.0, we’ll throw out the 7 defensive games in 2005 with a -33.0, 3.1, -1.6
But why are we ignoring the other OF positions? If Byrd is SUCH a defensive wizard, he should be MUCH, MUCH better compared to the other players in LF and RF. Not to mention the problem with trying to apply UZR/150 over a small sample size (55 Equivalent Games). You will see a lot more outliers if you start spreading it across that small sample size.
Why I use UZR/150 for Jones is that he’s actually PLAYED 150 defensive games worth in CF. Can you say the same for Byrd?
What is more likely, Byrd being able to duplicate his numbers from these past 2 seasons or Jones being able to put up numbers he posted 3+ years ago?
That’s NOT the question. The question is “Is it possible that Jones can regain the form that he last had in 2006, and IS IT WORTH A NRI flyer?”
Of course most people think that it’s more likely for Byrd to post his numbers for the past 2 seasons rather than Jones NOT posting numbers from the past 2 season. That’s why Jones is on the street trying to get a NRI, while Byrd got $3.06 guaranteed contract. But that’s NOT THE QUESTION.
Don’t forget that in 2007, Byrd put up a 113 OPS+ and a .350 wOBA. Its not like Byrd was only great for one season. Also, if you’d like to talk about things that happened a few years back, Byrd’s rookie season was pretty damn good too.
And don’t forget that in 2004, 2005, and 2006, he absolutely sucked, and that he’s NEVER shown a 19.2 UZR/150 even PRO-RATED until last year. And that he’s never even PLAYED 150 defensive games in CF.
Adam pointed this out somewhere else in this thread too, but I’ll repeat it for you. Bradley put up an MVP caliber season offensively last year and was great in 2007 too yet he wasn’t even a borderline Type B.
What the heck are you talking about? Bradley scored 70.909 which was at the very upper end of Type B players (BTW, which I warned he might be). The lower end of Type B players include Swisher (.241 BA, 46 HR, 147 RBI), Garko (.281 BA, 35 HR, 151 RBI), Konerko (.251BA, 53 HR, 152 RBI), Cuddyer (.268 BA, 19 HR, 117 RBI), Choo (.308 BA, 14 HR, 71 RBI), Thomas (.265 BA, 34 HR, 125 RBI), Teahen (.270 BA, 22 HR, 119 RBI).
Now, does Jones have to be pretty good to be a Type B player especially after last year? Sure. But he doesn’t have to have an “easily win the MVP” season to do it. Heck, Bradley didn’t have an “easily win the MVP season” and I think that would do enough to push Jones near (if not in) the Type B status.
The point I was trying to make with the comment is that if Jones does well, he could be a Type B FA.
If you’re going to start cherry picking all the stats which make you think that Byrd is going to be an elite defender with a good bat, then, it doesn’t make sense for us to continue this conversation.
I had thought that you were a thoughtful poster, but these arguments seem to say otherwise. Either that or your fingers got taken over by the spirit of wufdog.
R
...
Fine, Byrd didn’t have a season that is equally as good as the top years that Jones had. They were just pretty damn close. I’m not ignoring the other OF positions, but if you are talking about Jones playing CF and possibly being a better option than what we have, its only reasonable to look at what we have at that position. You aren’t asking Jones to play LF or RF which also require a different skill set.
That’s NOT the question. The question is "Is it possible that Jones can regain the form that he last had in 2006, and IS IT WORTH A NRI flyer?"
That’s only part of the question. This thing isn’t only about Andruw Jones regaining his prime years at the age of 32, its about who do we move around in a crowded OF to give him the chance for that.
And don’t forget that in 2004, 2005, and 2006, he absolutely sucked, and that he’s NEVER shown a 19.2 UZR/150 even PRO-RATED until last year. And that he’s never even PLAYED 150 defensive games in CF.
I’m not forgetting any of that. Just that history has shown as that players can “get it” at later ages in their careers. You look at what they’ve done in the past, but you always need to put a lot more weight on what they’ve done recently. And recently Byrd has been a great player putting up seasons better than Jones’ career averages. And for his career, he has a 3.5 UZR/150 in CF to go with some very nice COF defensive production.
And Bradley’s FA status was within a point of 5 players ranked just underneath him. This wasn’t a case of maybe one or two more RBIs or an extra HR would have pushed him to be a Type A which is what I think of when I say borderline. Bradley had one hell of a season last year and was hands down the best hitter in the AL when he was on the field. And look at what he did in 2007, he had a great BA, had 13 HRs, and 37 RBIs. Jones in 2008 had a .158 BA, 3 HRs, and 14 RBIs. For him to be in the top 40% of players in baseball, he’s going to have belt out one hell of a lot of HRs and hit more RBIs than Hamilton last season because his BA is going to be near the bottom of the league thanks to that 08 BA. And for a reference point, the bottom Type B players last season all had at least 110 RBIs with the exception of Shin Soo Choo.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
...
Fine, Byrd didn’t have a season that is equally as good as the top years that Jones had. They were just pretty damn close. I’m not ignoring the other OF positions, but if you are talking about Jones playing CF and possibly being a better option than what we have, its only reasonable to look at what we have at that position. You aren’t asking Jones to play LF or RF which also require a different skill set.
The problem is that Byrd had a small sample in CF last year. Pro-rating it does NOT make sense as that can skew the predictions FOR THE NEXT YEAR. It makes more sense to use ALL OF positions (especially because the baseline is lower for LF and CF).
Let’s put it this way.
How much do you want to bet that Byrd will have a UZR of 15 or above in CF? Assuming he gets all the playing time and doesn’t get hurt?
Are you really going to base it on around 9 extra putouts out of 140 expected put outs? Say he doesn’t get quite get to 2 of those putouts. That would drop him from 19.2 to below 15 (assuming that’s how UZR is calculated). Would you really bet that he could keep that up throughout a whole season when he’s never done it before?
I’m not forgetting any of that. Just that history has shown as that players can "get it" at later ages in their careers. You look at what they’ve done in the past, but you always need to put a lot more weight on what they’ve done recently. And recently Byrd has been a great player putting up seasons better than Jones’ career averages. And for his career, he has a 3.5 UZR/150 in CF to go with some very nice COF defensive production.
I still don’t understand why you keep harping on Byrd’s recent years being above Jones’s average career years.
If you’re speaking offensively, ok, sure, his past years have been better than Jones’ average offensive years. But the problem is that you’re completely ignoring defense in these calculations ESPECIALLY when you equate Byrd’s “very nice COF” defensive production with CAREER GOLD GLOVE CALIBER CF defensive production.
You DO know that the baseline for CF is usually higher than COF, right? And you DO know that Andruw Jones has shown GOLD GLOVE CALIBER performance throughout all his Gold Glove FULL seasons (i.e., he deserved his gold gloves)?
If you put the FULL Gold Glove defensive performance with the slightly below Byrd’s offensive output in the average Andruw Jones’s years, I’d say you’d be hard pressed to exclaim that Byrd’s years were just as good or better than Jones’s average year, offensively AND defensively.
As for the Type B. I’ll just concede it since I don’t want to bother arguing about it, and it wasn’t the main point I was trying to make.
That’s only part of the question. This thing isn’t only about Andruw Jones regaining his prime years at the age of 32, its about who do we move around in a crowded OF to give him the chance for that.
Well, sure IF the coaching staff thinks that he’s back to his original self. You seem to think that signing Jones to a NRI is equivalent to giving him a major league contract and giving him the starting position, thus pushing out other OF (who besides Hamilton and maybe Cruz, aren’t really anything special).
It’s not. Sure you worry about the staff being enamored with him to the point of ignoring what they’re seeing assuming he’s bad. But as I’ve stated that’s the WORST case scenario.
You guys seem to persist in viewing it as the ONLY case scenario.
R
Oh I missed this one too
And if he is just a platoon type, why would you bench his great hitting against righties for Jones who has historically been much worse against righties than lefties.
Great hitting against righties?
.289/.343/.504
How does this compare to:
.259/.339/.489
Which are Andruw Jones’s CAREER rate numbers (yes, even taking into account his crappy past two years).
While they are good, I wouldn’t call them great.
R
Fine, they aren't great, they're just good.
Use whatever adjective you want. They are still easily better than Jones and Murphy has just finished his rookie season while Jones is turning 32. And since Jones has over 7500 PAs in his career, his last 2 years are just 12% of his total PAs and last year’s was just about 3%. That’s not going to effect his numbers too much.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
remember
our roster currently sits at 39 with two guys who can go on the 60 (Hurley and Benoit). There are also guys who can slip through the waiver wire at the end of spring training who will probably surprise us because we naturally overrate our own (like Cruz last spring). I am thinking mostly about Mendoza and possibly Arias if his shoulder is still not recovered.
Because so much can happen between now and the end of March to alter the makeup of our 40, I am not too worried about roster ramifications at this point. But I do know that if Andruw Jones can get anywhere near his performance level pre 2007, he is worth a roster spot, and that is all i need to offer him an NRI.
Hurley and Benoit's spots go to Guardado and Vizquel
and the roster probably goes to a full 40 with Turnbow or Donnely making the roster (I think one of the 2 are going to end up making the roster).
Yeah, we can try and slide some players through waivers, but I hate having to think like that so that we can add a player that offers nothing to this team that we don’t already have.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
Good way of putting it.
I think people are so scarred by the Sosa experiment that they see this potentially as Sosa redux.
IMO, it’s not quite that bad because of the reasons I detailed above.
R
I'm in agreement
but I doubt he even has to be on the ML roster immediately out of ST. Do we have a DH in Oklahoma that we would not feel good about sitting down for that situation? I would imagine people are more concerned about the bat than the glove, so would it be possible to let him DH in Oklahoma most days and just put him in the OF every once in a while to give one of the younger guys a rest? If it’s in the contract that he can opt out May 1st or something, that gives a reasonable look to see if his bat comes back.
By the way, when talking about which hitters deserve major league at bats, let's not forget Brandon Boggs. . .
The dude should have had offensive numbers a good deal better and may have had a Gold Glove argument if he had played a full season. I really, really want to find a way to give him a good amount of time.
Pretty interesting read
Not sure how much we can bank on Boggs coming back toward the mean since he’s shown a poor BA in the minors, and since we don’t know if this is only accurate for Major leaguers (a la BABIP non-control in pitchers), it might be a bit much to bet that Boggs underperformed his BA by about 50 points.
Also, I’m not sure how there’s a Gold Glove argument for Boggs, and taking a look at the stats, I’m not overly impressed.
R
I don't have a BJO account anymore.
But his +/- was among the leaders in left field and good at every position in limited time. Not sure how that’s unimpressive.
I didn’t say he had a GG argument, I said he would have with more time.
Ah
Ok, I misunderstood. My apologies.
The issue I see is that though Boggs was good in left field, that doesn’t mean he can handle CF.
Anyways, hopefully he does well and forces us to ignore Jones, Byrd, and Murphy :D.
R
Everytime you appologize I feel like a jerk.
Heh
Anyway, I do think he can handle centerfield, and I want Minor League Splits defensive stats to work, but they won’t. But yeah, he’d have to play more time there to prove it, but I don’t think he’d hurt us at worst.
Holy shit
Andruw Jones (and apparently, vis-a-vis Sammy Sosa) was worth 481 comments?
Yeah. Spies. They're little guys with beady eyes and long fingernails. They plant bugs that can pick up the hush of a man's heartbeat - or the whisper of a falling hair.
When I'm up late I crunch numbers out of boredom.
A team with replacement-level pitching and David Murphy’s at every position (including bench) could be expected to win about 83 games.
That’s not really supposed to be connected to the argument above, but it should highlight that A) he’s not the stud a lot of LSB thinks he is and B) he’s not the garbage the rest of LSB seems to call him in retaliation.
I don't see why all the negative hubbub
minor league contract, NRI.
Most likely he is shot as a player, but its not costing us anything. I doubt he bumps out anyone from the major league roster, but as long as its not Hamilton, who cares.
Maybe Cruz is finally going to be worth a damn at 28, maybe not. Maybe Murphy will actually be able to find his way to 1B with a seeing eye dog, maybe not.
It’s not like we have these slam dunk, can’t miss prospects he is any threat to take time away from even on the off chance he makes the team.
Get off my lawn.
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