PECOTA 2009 Depth Chart Projections
by philkid3 on Feb 9, 2009 7:39 PM CST
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PrintArguably the most accurate projections for the 2009 standings are available. They will obviously go through changes before the season starts, but worth looking at for now.
The American League is ridiculous, particularly the East. They're projected to have 4 teams .500 or better out of 6 total in the AL.
Red Sox, Indians, Athletics, Mets, Cubs and Diamondbacks win the divisions with the Yankees and Braves getting Wild Cards.
The Rangers win 72 games. I'm right a whole lot less often than PECOTA, but I'd still take the over on that. Though, not by much. That's 10 games back of the lead in a really, really weak division. 812 runs scored, 923 runs allowed.*
A few Ranger specific thoughts as I scan the players:
Kinlser is getting 681 PAs. That would be AWESOME. .830 OPS and a 36.5 VORP (which I'm assuming is the new baseline).
Kinsler is being seen as just about better than Hamilton in every way. Hambone is getting .280/.350/.480 over 613 PA with 24 home runs.
MY is only getting 75% of the playing time at 3rd.
Nelson Cruz is inspiring, Chris Davis less so. If memory serves, these are park neutralized, though.
Salty gets 60% of the catching time, Teagarden gets 30, Max gets 10.
Elvis Andrus is projected at 3.2 runs below replacement on offense.
*Little bragging: that's almost exactly what I came up with as my own rough projections for the year.
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Andrus
What really matters is Andrus’ value in the 2nd half of the year.
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
If hes up at the start he will struggle
hopefully by the second half he shows progress
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
There have been more than a few people here
to complain about Kinsler’s defense. Yes, he does make a few errors. I think they don’t tend to see his offensive value. He’s a monster with the bat and not too shabby on the bases either. Almost never grounds into double plays. I would like to see him bat behind a really good leadoff man. Preferably somebody like Ricky Henderson. Whoops, I just woke up from a dream, sorry.
"Evolution happened, now get over it." Michael Shermer
His defense gets more crap than it deserves, anyway.
He’s been average, above average and bad in his career. And he was bad because of stupidity and not lack of range or skill.
There’s no reason to assume he can’t handle second, and his offensive value there is scary good.
iirc
his defense got much better after the whole ADD thing, right?
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Feb 10, 2009 7:46 AM CST up reply actions
24 homeruns after he just hit 32?
I don’t get that.
"It doesn't look like he's trying. It kinda pisses me off," "He could throw 110 if he tried. The way it explodes out of his hand is really something special." ~ B-Mac on Feliz.
'tis a bit surprising.
As my g/f pointed out, though, Hamilton is probably one of the more difficult players for PECOTA. Without the similarity scores in front of me, I’d imagine he’s pretty unique.
Is PECOTA the standard
for these sorts of projections? CA with 20 fewer wins and 60 more RA with Garland the only net loss from their staff and a High # of injury issues to position players that probably won’t repeat; TX with fewer wins despite the pitching implosion last year that probably won’t be repeated and 90 fewer runs scored; Oakland with a prodigious 154 additional runs scored with 110 more RA all while winning the division with 82 wins? Seems a bit of a joke to me. Am I off base here?
"Seems a bit of a joke to me. Am I off base here?"
At this point, as it’s still not in its final draft since it’s only February, it’s certainly not anything ressembling the gold standard yet.
If you think PECOTA is a joke, however, then yes, you are off base.
PECOTA
another thing nate silver has given us lol
anyone still read fivethirtyeight?
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
yes
I suscribe to the rss feed. His numbers on the recession are down right depressing.
Signature! I don't need no stinking signature!!
by DerekSTheRed on Feb 10, 2009 12:35 PM CST up reply actions
This version doesn't have defense factored in, right?
So does that mean the 912 runs is just from the natural regression from our pitchers assuming previous years’ level of defense? If that’s the case, I actually don’t feel so bad.
So if the Rangers
do actually go 73-89, does Ron Washington get fired? What about JD?
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
My guess...
Wash yes. JD no.
I think JD has ’til the end of 2010 when some of these kids will be expected to perform on the ML level.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
Let's hope both of them get
run out of town on a rail so we can get on with our future.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
Of course Josey...
Hey thanks JD for building up the best farm system in baseball with the most all around talent. Now get out, before any of those players have a chance to contribute at the ML level. Very rational thinking there.
Of course I’m sure JD gets no credit for that from you, and you think he and Wash should have been gone 2 years ago, so your opinion on the matter is far from neutral.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
Building a farm system and knowing what moves
you need to make for a team to win at the major league level are different skillsets.
Last year the Rangers should have not only had a great minor league system but also a team that scored 901 runs that featured a rotation with Danks, Young and Galarraga while AGonzales played 1B. It didn’t happen because Boy Blunder doesn’t know what moves to make at the major league level.
I get the feeling that Nolan has the bar raised higher than JD does this year because I heard him during one of the Ticket tickers says “I fully expect this team to contend in the AL West this year.”
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
by Josey Wales on Feb 10, 2009 10:49 PM CST up reply actions
please for the love of god
stop using galarraga as someone who is going to be good this year
boy blunder? how old are you – 12?
what do you expect him to say “were shooting for as high of a draft pick as we can get because we know we are unable to compete!”
-danks was not good until he learned the cutter, the pitch he was misssing here. if yout hink he was “great” 2 years ago go look up his stats.
-chris young is helped more than probably any SP in BASEBALL by his home park.
i love how you use what you think are his “bad” moves all the time but never use any examples of his very good moves (gagne deal, lofton deal, teix deal, drafts the last few years, etc)
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Feb 11, 2009 7:46 AM CST up reply actions
How has the "Gagne deal" helped the major league
team win games? Murphy is a fairly pedestrian 4th OF with not too much upside. I like him but there are a lot of similar players. Gabbard was garbage in the front yard of the Red Sox and is always hurt. Beltre is a polarizing player who helps the organizational prospect rankings. At $ 8 million, Eric Gagne as a closer (!) was quite a luxury for a small market payroll team that was not going to win. Give JD credit for getting rid of Gagne at the perfect time and salvaging something from this poorly thought out signing.
How has the “Lofton deal” helped the major league team win games? At $ 6 million per, a 40 year old CF in Texas was not going to help that team improve and it’s no surprise that team bolted the gate 23-42. Max Ramirez is a promising prospect and really helps the organizational rankings but who knows what’s going to happen with him given our war chest of catchers? At this point he’s unproven in the major leagues. JD should get credit for getting rid of Lofton at the perfect time but he was not a player that was ever going to help the big club win and it was hardly shocking that nobody signed him last year.
So JD spent $ 14 million in 2007 on players that helped keep this thing stapled to the treadmill of mediocrity. If he goes and gets a starting pitcher (Lilly, Meche were both available) with that money instead, there’s a better chance he doesn’t feel like he has to trade for Brandon McCarthy. Plus he has an additional $ 3 million leftover to spend. Plug JDanks & Ted Lilly into the 2008 rotation and there’s a chance this thing wins 90 games…even with Ron Washington as their manager.
The Tex deal is ongoing. It’s really helped the organizational rankings but we haven’t seen too much at the major league level just yet. The centerpiece of the deal when it was made was Salty and he couldn’t beat out Gerald Bleeping Laird.
So you see, stocking the organization with prospects and making moves that help the big club win games are two separate skills.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
do you think that GMs should only make trades that immediately help the major league team?
the gil meche contract was blasted at the time for being way too much for a pitcher whose talent had not met his production
the gagne deal has helped some at the ML level if only by allowing us to have another cheap 4/5th OF instead of playing someone like catt, however beltre is a guy who def has quite a bit of upside, and if he ever learns how to take a walk (or even if he does not) he will still be quite a prospect.
the lofton deal gave us max ramirez. another (good) catcher.
at the time mccarthy was though more highly of than danks, who was seen as having lots of baseball talent/being smart but not having a breaking pitch that would allow him to be a success at the major league level. see his stats from 2 years ago and imagine if he had not been forced to learn the cutter and no one would even be talking about john danks.
here is my question for you – if we turn around and trade max ramirez, beltre, beavan, chad tracy and beau jones for someone like nolasco — will you celebrate the previous moves? will that have been a “good” move, even though the other moves are “bad” moves
and to have a window to win championships, typically teams go from having lots of prospects —> contending —> playoffs —> WS
you dont go from finishing last in your division to the world series by signing a lot of FAs…
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Feb 11, 2009 9:25 AM CST up reply actions
I agree that you don't go from finishing last in your division to
the World Series by signing a lot of free agents.
In order to build a team that wins consistently, you need to build from within, make the right trades and then sign the correct free agents that help get you over the hump.
JD has taken some steps in the right direction by building up the minor league system but there are many other steps involved (where JD has demonstrated profound incompetence) in making the right decisions (especially with a small market payroll) and evaluations at the major league level.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
In order to build a team that wins consistently, you need to build from within, make the right trades and then sign the correct free agents that help get you over the hump.
and you need to do that pretty much in that order
step 1 is build from within
rangers have “home acquired” players at 3b (young), 2b (kinsler), catcher (whoever), 1b/dh (blalock/davis), pitching (cj, frankie, etc)
of the players on the 40 man the players who have not played some amt in the rangers minor league system before getting on the 40 man:
gabbard (trade)
millwood (FA)
moscoso (trade)
nippert (trade)
padilla (trade)
byrd (FA)
catt (FA)
golson (recently traded for)
hamilton (everyone knows his story)
murphy (trade)
step 2: make right trades
of his trades of since 2005 (there are 22 of them)
losses for the rangers (all in hindsight):
-soriano for wilkerson, gallarraga and sledge (2005)
-adrian gonzalez, sledge, chris young for adam eaton, aki otsuka and billy killian (2005)
-traded nick massett, jacob rasner and john danks for brandon mccarthy and david paisano (2007)
-armando galarraga for michaeln hernandez (this will be in the wash either way after this year, GUARANTEE it)
wash either way:-esteban german for fabio castro
3 way deal w/ oakland and cubs – traded dominguez and recieved rheinecker, john koronka and cash
-david dellucci for jake blalock and robinson tejeda
-john hudgins and vince sisini for freddy guzman and cesar rojas
-brain shouse for enrique cruz and cash
-fabio castro for daniel haigwood and cash
-brian corey for luis mendoza
-mike nickeas for victor diaz
-john lujan for chris stewart
-freddy guzman for chris shelton
-tug hulett for ben broussard
-jose marte for dusin nippert
-eddie guardado for mark hamburger
wins for the rangers:-vincente padilla for PTNBL (ricardo rodriguez)
-laynce nix, kevin mench, julian cordero and coco cordero for carlos lee, nelson cruz and 2 1st rd picks (main and borbon)
-eric cagne for david murphy, engel beltre and kason gabbard
-mark teixeria and ron mahay for neftali feliz, jarrod saltamacchia, elvis andrus, matt harrison and beau jones
-danny ray herrera and edinson volquez for josh hamilton (both teams won)
step 3 – sign the right FAs
sheets deal was in place
milton bradley
numerous low risk-high reward deals (lofton, gagne, jones, bradley, etc)
i just fail to see how he has been a complete (or anywhere near a complete failure, even by your 3 steps to building a consistantly winning team
i also fail to see where he has shown “profound incompetence” in the other two steps that you yourself listed (other than in his early 2005 deals, which if you recall were not particulary bad at the time they were made – danks/mccarthy especially)
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Feb 11, 2009 10:22 AM CST up reply actions
You're giving credit to JD for Sheets!?!?
Why?
The “low risk high reward” signings you reference were band-aids and have had no long term (more than one year) effects on the team. We still don’t know if Nelson Cruz can play in The Show because of the “low risk high reward” system and this is his 4th year in the organization.
So if Andruw Jones makes the team, plays average defense and hits 25 HR’s while the team wins 73 games (at the playing time expense of a kid who actually might have a chance to be here if this thing turns around) instead of 71 games, that’s a good thing?
The pathway to mediocrity is to keep signing vets with declining skills who are here for one year and leave.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
by Josey Wales on Feb 11, 2009 10:38 AM CST up reply actions
yes i am giving credit to JD for sheets – ya know he IS the general manager and as much as i am sure it breaks your hear to hear it nolan does not negotiate contracts with FA…
we dont know if nelson cruz can play in the majors because of what player that “kept him us from knowing if he could play in the majors” him last year? he would have been up way earlier had he not gotten hurt in the first place…
what kid “wouldnt get to play” over andruw jones? marlon byrd? im sorry, borbon (a product of the carlos lee trade) is not ready to be in the major leagues to start the year. if jones has a big first half i almost guarantee you he gets traded. for his sake as much as for the rangers (if borbon is ready i bet he gets traded)
what “vets” have we signed that are guaranteed spots on the rangers 25 man (or 40 man) roster this offseason? guardado/jennings/jones all signed MINOR LEAUGE deals
its quite funny that your not willing to give credit to JD for sheets and would rather give credit to someone else (hicks or nolan) but when it comes to signing “vets” you blame it all on JD even when they work out for the best for the team (see bradley, gagne, etc)
are you willing to now say that JD has done a good job with steps one and two of your “program”? would JD have gotten credit had sheets signed and pitched as well this year as last year – would he be considered the “right” kind of FA signing? what about bradley, was he a “right” kind of signing?
who SHOULD jd have tried to sign this offseason? teix? sabathia? maybe AJ burnett?
come on, no matter what he does its not going to be enough. if the rangers suprise everyone and win the world series next year im sure you will still have something bad to say about daniels. hell, if they won 120 games next year you would complain they didnt win 121. there is no making you happy no matter what happens…
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Feb 11, 2009 10:53 AM CST up reply actions
You're giving JD credit
for almost signing an injured pitcher like Ben Sheets?
The bar for expectations is getting lower and lower these days in Texas for Boy Blunder.
Most GMs get credit for signing good free agents who actually contribute.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
by Josey Wales on Feb 11, 2009 11:16 AM CST up reply actions
why am i not suprised by your reaction. had he signed sheets, sheets passed the physical and pitched well all year you would blast him for “taking a chance on someone with injury history”
had he signed sheets and he had pitched well for half the year but been hurt the other half it would have been a “total failure”
if he had signed sheets and sheets had gotten hurt trying to field a ball you would have blamed JD for signing someone who is “brittle”
if he DOESNT sign him but someone else does and sheets pitches all year you would blame JD for “not taking the chance”
if he signs with someone else but gets halfway through the year you blame JD for “not taking the chance to at least get 100ish innings of good pitching”
if he signs with someone else and gets hurt on his first pitch of the spring you blame JD for “even considering signing someone who is that injury prone”
——
you want to talk about good FAs who actually contribute, look at the FAs signed over the last few years (that got over 100 ABs or close to 50 IP by JD:
2008:
ramon vazuqez – 111 ops+
marlon byrd – 123 ops+
milton bradley – 163 ops+
frankie catt – 97 ops+
ponson – 113 era+
eddie guardado – 121 era+
franklyn german – 212 era+
2007:
marlon byrd – 113 ops+
frank catalanotto – 104 ops+
kenny lofton – 116 ops+
eric gagne – 209 era+
jamey wright – 125 ops+
ron mahay – 163 ops+
clearly the FAs signed under JDs reign at GM have all been complete failures
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Feb 11, 2009 11:33 AM CST up reply actions
I appreciate all your diligent research, knockoutking
but it doesn’t change my mind.
JD doesn’t know what the hell to do when it comes making proper decisions and evaluations at the major league level.
That’s why this thing has had a losing record since he took over and exactly why PECOTA thinks we’re going to throw down a 73-89 record in 2009.
However, I enjoyed the discussion.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
by Josey Wales on Feb 11, 2009 11:43 AM CST up reply actions
my question is
why do you think that?
gut feeling?
any thing specific?
also i think PECOTA is also not final yet (hopefully changes for the better)
thanks, i enjoyed it too!
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Feb 11, 2009 12:05 PM CST up reply actions
I've stated my positions on the topic
and the standings of the last three years and PECOTA’s projections would appear to validate those opinions.
I also think PECOTA is being very kind to this team as it is currently constructed.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
by Josey Wales on Feb 11, 2009 12:14 PM CST up reply actions
Well using this neat stat Bill James developed
Murphy-12 win shares in 2008 and 5 in 2007 when playing for the Rangers
Gabbard-2 win shares in 2008 and 1 in 2007 when playing for the Rangers
Ramirez-1 win share in 2008
Gagne-6 win shares in 2007 when playing for the Rangers
Lofton-11 win shares in 2007 when playing for the Rangers.
So that is what the Gagne and Lofton signings and trades did for the Rangers.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
That's not a selling point at all, Gdawg.
What are we talking, about 8 total wins in two seasons?
Woohoo!!!
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
" How has the "Gagne deal" helped the major league team win games?"
You asked a question and I simply answered it using facts and another one of the brilliant Bill James’ statistics rather than only citing a moment of the Great Game from the 1970s and try to base the current team off of that pointless remark.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
And if JD has picked up Lilly or Meche
instead, this team wouldn’t have felt like they had to trade a prized prospect like John Danks for somebody (McCarthy) they felt was ready for The Show.
Plug JDanks & Lilly/Meche into this rotation last year and you win a helluva lot more games in 2007, 2008 and beyond.
.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
by Josey Wales on Feb 11, 2009 10:28 AM CST up reply actions
they traded FOR a player that was closer to the big leagues
who they (and most other people in baseball at that time, GM, scouts, managers, whoever you want to ask) was thought to be a better player and pitcher than danks.
had danks not learned the cutter, and mccarthy been hurt the deal would still have been a win for the rangers.
and thats what you dont understand, danks was someone who was thought highly of but his problem was the lack of a good breaking pitch. look at his stats from 2 years ago.
by comparison go back and read some scouts views of mccarthy from before the trade or even right after the trade. in the majority of baseball “guys” views out there mccarthy > danks (at the time of the deal)
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Feb 11, 2009 10:56 AM CST up reply actions
And once more
Do you agree or disagree that some steroids help players recover faster and push their body past their natural limits?
Its okay to answer this. You don’t have to run away.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
I have no idea
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
by Josey Wales on Feb 11, 2009 10:28 AM CST up reply actions
suprise suprise
a non-answer
of course it helps players recover faster (i cant speak to past natural limits but the quote from ben johnsons coach sure makes it seem like it does)
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Feb 11, 2009 10:57 AM CST up reply actions
Well then I'm curious
as to why you can say something like this
he was always on the vanguard of lifting weights and doing what it took to stay properly conditioned so I highly doubt it.
and disregard the possibility of Ryan taking steroids because of it. If you don’t know one way or another whether steroids can help players work past their natural limits and recover faster, then why do you highly doubt that Ryan ever took steroids based on how he always pushed himself past what would seem to be his natural limits.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
I doubt that Ryan took steroids
because very few pitchers & players in his era did anything on the field or had major changes in appearance that made me think they did.
Do you have suspicions of players in the 70s & 80s who used steroids, if so, who?
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
by Josey Wales on Feb 11, 2009 11:18 AM CST up reply actions
Why only the 70s and 80s?
Since Ryan had some amazing years in the 90s when he was in his 40s, why would you not consider 90s?
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
Which year in the 90s do you
think Ryan began using steroids?
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
by Josey Wales on Feb 11, 2009 11:56 AM CST up reply actions
I'm not saying Ryan used steroids
but I don’t highly doubt that Ryan used them considering what he was able to do in Texas from 1989 through 1993 with a couple of amazing seasons there. Knowing that steroids were around in the late 80s/early 90s, those years are slightly suspicious.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
Although 1989 may have been a year
to arouse suspicion, I think it’s more easily explained that Nolan was coming to a new league and was also pitching with a big chip on his shoulder (McMullen said he was done).
If you strongly believe Nolan Ryan used steroids all I can say is that I disagree.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
by Josey Wales on Feb 11, 2009 12:54 PM CST up reply actions
I do not strongly believe nor do I really care if he did
I just didn’t understand how someone could not even consider the decent possibility that he was using something at that point in his career.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
So the Blue Jays have
a +38 in RS/RA. How exactly does that make them a .500 team?
"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008
This.
And probably also something about having to play, like, 60 games against the three best teams in baseball.
Kinsler
I’m now making my projections half PECOTA and half CHONE, and Kinsler is coming out as brutal. He’s about a 5 WAR player on the chart.
Awesome.
Also, the wins are going up, but I think PECOTA is harder on our pitching than CHONE is, so that might be short lived (I’ve only gotten through position players so far).
interesting work
I don’t have a lot to add to the conversation, so I’ve been quite – but I wanted to let you know that there are probably several of us that are enjoying this exercise..
"drawing walks is an overrated trait in my eyes."
"i do believe we could have 4 30 start pitchers in the rotation."
-- both these genius remarks brought to you by our resident guru, bigsteve
quiet, not quite
heh
"drawing walks is an overrated trait in my eyes."
"i do believe we could have 4 30 start pitchers in the rotation."
-- both these genius remarks brought to you by our resident guru, bigsteve
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