Michael Young projection discussion thread
by JBImaknee on Mar 10, 2009 12:13 PM CDT
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PrintHere, I'll put this on so that people aren't tempted to ruin Ben's tabulation.
My prediction is that Young will miss some time - a new position means he'll probably have some injury by something strange at third - moving the wrong way, ball hitting him in the head, who knows.
I do think his slugging will go up. I predicted .470, which may be a bit high. But that's one of the arguments about moving him to 3rd, right? Anyway, if he does that, I'll be happy. And its not out of the question.
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I was probably too pessemistic
But I just see him declining more and more, new position or not..
I don’t think he’ll magically start learning plate discipline, and I think the power he once had is gone. As he loses the ability to hit the ball for average, everything else goes into the shitter.
LOL Sorry the Sooners will score more that 14. - boomer1
ok but
a 50 point drop in OBP seems just a little pessimistic. Not saying Mike won’t go AJones on us but it seems a little over reactive. None of the fangraphs projections have him below 340 next year btw.
I admitted to being probably too pessemistic. :)
To be honest, I just have a bad feeling about him this year… and the rest of his contract.
I’d like to be wrong.
LOL Sorry the Sooners will score more that 14. - boomer1
my thoughts
So it looks like people are seeing a spike in BA (I probably should have accounted for one given his dip in BABIP last year) but beyond that, about the same (with some spikes in SLG).
The only way SLG is going to go up is the extra boost he gets from the BA. But other than that, his ISO was actually a bit higher than it was the year before and I just think .120 is just a reasonable expectation at this stage in his career. Maybe if he has time to bulk up in the offseason next year.
(One request: Adam, can you include the player’s numbers from the previous year in the fan post. I guess it doesn’t really matter since I have to go look them up and other stats anyway…)
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
MY
I think not having broken fingers is going to help alot. I see his BA rising back into the low 300’s and he has always maintained a 40-50 point spread between his BA and OBP which I don’t see diminishing. And along with those healthy fingers and the fact he can get a little bigger now that he is playing 3B I think we will see a spike in SLG. Maybe not home runs but more doubles as he sprays balls to the alleys alot more. Hitting in the 2 hole is going to keep him focused on moving the runners along more than driving the ball.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
but the way you are analyzing it
seems like his SLG is just going to move up commensurate with his BA.
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
I think a 20 point raise in BA
And about a 40 point rise in SLG.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Plate appearances
Adam I think you should probably make that bold next time or at least capitalize it. I think some people are putting ABs at least based on the projections listed so far.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
I put 600
and that was plate appearances. I think when a guy changes positions at age 32, or whatever he is, you’re going to see a few more off days and maybe a DL stint along the way.
Wash ain't sitting the Face...
…any more than once or twice a month unless one of MY’s limbs falls off.
We couldn't have known it at the time but we definitely killed the wrong Belushi brother.
Wash isn't sitting Young
unless Young requests a day off
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Young does what he wants
…unless it includes playing SS.
by Black Francis on Mar 10, 2009 5:07 PM CDT up reply actions
x
"My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is,
‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all.
So I’m not going to say anything at all.
Is my mother the greatest or what?"
- Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, after signing Ichiro to a $90 million contract
Here was my reasoning
I took out last year since he played with the broken fingers for a while and also had the dip in BABIP. I averaged out the five years before that and got 718/.315/.359/.464. I took off a little bit for age, etc. and so that’s where I came up with my projection of 710/.305/.350/.450. I remember his HR total dropping a lot two years ago but his 2B total rising a lot, so I’m sure .800 OBP isn’t an astronomical number to expect.
That's pretty much my analysis
except your numbers are a bit higher. Everything you said plus the fact supposedly he’s been trying to get his weight down to play SS a bit better.
the weight thing
i don’t think he has enough time to get it back up again, right?
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
Beats me
Honestly don’t know. But I can say it takes me about 2-3 months to get back into marginal shape and put on some muscle and that’s only working out 3 times a week with a slight change in diet (I normally put on weight after working out for a while). That’s after not working out for a few months or once even a year. I’m guessing a pro athlete should be able to do that in a similar amount of time. All he needs is a change in diet and change it workout regimen. I’m guessing the Rangers training staff can turn MY into Big Guns in no time.
Maybe Big Guns can turn him into Big Guns
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
I hope
now that the 200 hit streak is over, he’ll concentrate on turning on the ball more often. I believe he went with the Jeter approach to get his hits.(which ain’t bad) I’m not terribly optimistic he’ll go back to a 15-20HR, 40-50 double guy however. Therefore, .425 SLG.
"I saw your act, just didn't make it for me. Just a lot of fluff."
career averages
I went with his career averages of .300/.346/.442 in 714 PAs. I think this will be his last “good” year at the plate and the Rangers replace him for the 2011 season.
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
hightower
looks like you got smacked down. go put your projection up again the right way :)
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
That’s some memory skills, mang!
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on Mar 10, 2009 1:14 PM CDT up reply actions
My numbers got deleted
I think cause I didn’t follow directions.
First I’ve had that happen here in going on 4 years.
Go Strangers.
I forgot a couple decimels
I will prob get deleted too…oops
"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan
by Dirk Diggler on Mar 10, 2009 1:06 PM CDT up reply actions
There were two different posts...
…and I didn’t want them to get double-counted, so I deleted the first one.
But I forgot that a reply to a post gets deleted if the post is deleted, so it meant both were removed. Which wasn’t what I was trying to do.
by Adam J. Morris on Mar 10, 2009 1:20 PM CDT up reply actions
After all these years...
…you think you would know how to run your own blog. ;)
We couldn't have known it at the time but we definitely killed the wrong Belushi brother.
Athos
I can’t remember what his previous predictions were but seems pretty low for such a fan
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
Running Averages of all predictions so far:
672/.298/.347/.425
Ha
Sorry didnt mean to step on anyone’s toes. Just bored at work. :-)
by Michael Cave on Mar 10, 2009 2:05 PM CDT up reply actions
heh
although, you have pointed to a flaw in the system seeing as how you can give real time updates and it takes ben till the all star break to post projections
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
by ab03 on Mar 10, 2009 2:52 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Well
my ultimate goal is to track the predictions user by user and do a few analyses from there
by Michael Cave on Mar 10, 2009 4:18 PM CDT up reply actions
I figured a small increase in PAs due to improved health...
…and a small increase in BA for the same reason. And I factored in a continued evaporation of his power as he is yet another year older and another year removed from his power peak in 2005.
720 PAs .290/.340/.395
We couldn't have known it at the time but we definitely killed the wrong Belushi brother.
The Ranger fan in me hopes you are right...
…the pessimist and anti-MY in me think otherwise.
We couldn't have known it at the time but we definitely killed the wrong Belushi brother.
he actually had a better ISO last year than the year before
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
True but...
…I’m still predicting a decline. Part of my thought process is that in MY’s mind his best asset is his BA. That and his hit total are what garner him the most positive attention; therefore, I see him continuing to focus on making contact and spraying the ball to all fields, walks and XBH be damned.
We couldn't have known it at the time but we definitely killed the wrong Belushi brother.
I have the worst
numbers of all. I think he gets hurt for a period of time. I also think that he struggles with head games from the move to 3B.
I'd love for part of the "new look" to be a return to the red uniforms of the 1990s. - Ian Kinsler
i think
he really focuses on getting his power numbers up, and not necessarily his HR’s but just in general, although I would bet he has more than 20 dingers this year
I really should have put some more thought into mine.
I think he’ll hit for a decent average with not much power. I gave him a 35 point spread between average and OBP. He’s a pretty durable player and until he shows signs of chronic injury I don’t see a reason to change my mind.
I think I underestimated his average
I forgot just how average-driven his OBP is. Probably should have zipped over to BR before ripping off my projection, but whatever.
Basically, I was thinking he’ll put up an OBP/SLG that are about the same or marginally lower than last year, with a drop in BA being comphensated for by a slight increase in BB’s (ironically, that was the only area he actually improved in last year).
"You can have such a massive impact on a game even when you're not getting ground balls hit at you." - Michael Young
Interesting.
Only one person has him with under 600 PA. Most have him well over (I went 640).
CHONE gives him about 670 (which I’ll take over the next number), but PECOTA gives him only 539. His 90th percentile is still only 590.
I’m obviously with the crowd that has him at least clearing 600 by a comfortable margin, but I find it a little interesting that absolutely everyone (myself included) thinks PECOTA is way off.
well, I'm at exactly 600
I think between his age and a position change, its fair to suspect at least a few bumps, literally, along the way.
AJM
If you want to delete my screw up for Kinsler’s projection, I’ll repost it. If not, that’s cool too.
"My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is,
‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all.
So I’m not going to say anything at all.
Is my mother the greatest or what?"
- Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, after signing Ichiro to a $90 million contract
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