But I just see him declining more and more, new position or not..

I don’t think he’ll magically start learning plate discipline, and I think the power he once had is gone. As he loses the ability to hit the ball for average, everything else goes into the shitter.

So it looks like people are seeing a spike in BA (I probably should have accounted for one given his dip in BABIP last year) but beyond that, about the same (with some spikes in SLG).

The only way SLG is going to go up is the extra boost he gets from the BA. But other than that, his ISO was actually a bit higher than it was the year before and I just think .120 is just a reasonable expectation at this stage in his career. Maybe if he has time to bulk up in the offseason next year.

(One request: Adam, can you include the player’s numbers from the previous year in the fan post. I guess it doesn’t really matter since I have to go look them up and other stats anyway…)

I think not having broken fingers is going to help alot. I see his BA rising back into the low 300’s and he has always maintained a 40-50 point spread between his BA and OBP which I don’t see diminishing. And along with those healthy fingers and the fact he can get a little bigger now that he is playing 3B I think we will see a spike in SLG. Maybe not home runs but more doubles as he sprays balls to the alleys alot more. Hitting in the 2 hole is going to keep him focused on moving the runners along more than driving the ball.

Adam I think you should probably make that bold next time or at least capitalize it. I think some people are putting ABs at least based on the projections listed so far.

I took out last year since he played with the broken fingers for a while and also had the dip in BABIP. I averaged out the five years before that and got 718/.315/.359/.464. I took off a little bit for age, etc. and so that’s where I came up with my projection of 710/.305/.350/.450. I remember his HR total dropping a lot two years ago but his 2B total rising a lot, so I’m sure .800 OBP isn’t an astronomical number to expect.

now that the 200 hit streak is over, he’ll concentrate on turning on the ball more often. I believe he went with the Jeter approach to get his hits.(which ain’t bad) I’m not terribly optimistic he’ll go back to a 15-20HR, 40-50 double guy however. Therefore, .425 SLG.

I went with his career averages of .300/.346/.442 in 714 PAs. I think this will be his last “good” year at the plate and the Rangers replace him for the 2011 season.

looks like you got smacked down. go put your projection up again the right way :)

I think cause I didn’t follow directions.

First I’ve had that happen here in going on 4 years.

I can’t remember what his previous predictions were but seems pretty low for such a fan

…and a small increase in BA for the same reason. And I factored in a continued evaporation of his power as he is yet another year older and another year removed from his power peak in 2005.

720 PAs .290/.340/.395

numbers of all. I think he gets hurt for a period of time. I also think that he struggles with head games from the move to 3B.

he really focuses on getting his power numbers up, and not necessarily his HR’s but just in general, although I would bet he has more than 20 dingers this year

I think he’ll hit for a decent average with not much power. I gave him a 35 point spread between average and OBP. He’s a pretty durable player and until he shows signs of chronic injury I don’t see a reason to change my mind.

I forgot just how average-driven his OBP is. Probably should have zipped over to BR before ripping off my projection, but whatever.

Basically, I was thinking he’ll put up an OBP/SLG that are about the same or marginally lower than last year, with a drop in BA being comphensated for by a slight increase in BB’s (ironically, that was the only area he actually improved in last year).

Only one person has him with under 600 PA. Most have him well over (I went 640).

CHONE gives him about 670 (which I’ll take over the next number), but PECOTA gives him only 539. His 90th percentile is still only 590.

I’m obviously with the crowd that has him at least clearing 600 by a comfortable margin, but I find it a little interesting that absolutely everyone (myself included) thinks PECOTA is way off.

If you want to delete my screw up for Kinsler’s projection, I’ll repost it. If not, that’s cool too.