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Thinking some more about Dewan, Utley, and defense

I was reading the comments to this U.S.S. Mariner post, and one particular comment got me thinking:

This Utley-Howard thing reminds me of the Phillie-related debate James described in an earlier abstract, where he debunked Larry Bowa’s fielding prowess. People were saying things like “well, look at all the balls Mike Schmidt fields which Bowa might have gotten to” and James basically said “if there are two players who can get to the ball, then one of them ought to move over.”

This is, effectively, the flipside of it. Utley is getting balls that someone else ought to get but isn’t. So how do you properly credit him with them (after all, he really does field them)? More importantly, how do you rate him when he’s essentially playing a different position from all the other second basemen?

That comment was in response to this criticism of Dewan's system:

There’s also positioning issues in how Dewan ended up calculating his +/- ratings, as can be seen best in his Chase Utley numbers. Because Utley shifts towards the first base bag to make up for Ryan Howard’s ridiculous lack of range, he gets to far more balls in the 1B/2B hole than most second baseman. Dewan doesn’t adjust for this, and gives Utley credit for a +32 rating to his left (compared to +6 straight on and +8 to his right). Because of how Dewan is measuring plays saved (based on normal positioning for all players across the league), Utley would look worse defensively by his system if the Phillies just got a better defensive first baseman and Utley shaded back towards the 2B bag to play a more normal second base.

Here's the thing, though...

If Utley shifts farther over towards the middle, because there's a normal fielding first baseman, then doesn't his straight on and to the right numbers go up?

Because if you are going to ding him for positioning on plays to his left because he shades so far to his left, it seems you have to give him extra credit on plays to his right.  The fact that he's a +8 on plays to his right while shading over so dramatically to his left seems to emphasize how impressive his range really is.

So if Utley plays in a normal position for second base, his + rating going to his left maybe drops in half...but he presumably is also making more plays going to his right than he is currently making, and probably more plays on balls hit "straight on" (which, if he's shading left, is actually slightly to his right).

So if Utley makes 16 fewer plays on balls to his left if he plays normally, but makes, say, 5 more plays on balls straight on and 10 more plays on balls to his right, then he still ends up grading out with the same +/- as he does under Dewan's current system.

So what I don't understand is, how would the fact that Utley shades himself to the left more to cover Ryan Howard's lack of range something that makes his overall +/- lower than it otherwise would be?  If anything, I have to think that if he's got a normal first baseman and plays a more normal second base position, he'd end up making more plays on balls to his right than he loses on balls to his left by changing his position.

Can someone explain this?

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for one thing

It assumes that the same number of balls that go to his left also go to his right and middle. If that isn’t the case, you can’t compare him to other 2nd basemen, like the way you can’t compare 1st basemen to 2nd basemen

"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."

by ab03 on Mar 14, 2009 5:43 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Which actually

You kind of can – in that you can get a general idea of defensive contribution that each player has to the team. But, it’s not fair to say utley is better than kinsler if utley is getting a lot of gimmees to his left that kindler doesn’t even try for

"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."

by ab03 on Mar 14, 2009 5:46 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

But at the same time...

…Kinsler should be getting more gimmes to his right that Utley doesn’t even try for, if you are correct.

by Adam J. Morris on Mar 14, 2009 5:57 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

But

if there aren’t as many balls to his right he doesn’t get the opportunity

"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."

by ab03 on Mar 14, 2009 6:11 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

But if there were that many more...

…balls to the left as to the right, every 2B would be positioned farther to the left.

by Adam J. Morris on Mar 14, 2009 6:18 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

This may be too obvious

And subject to being refuted by actual mapping, but doesn’t Utley (and Kinsler and Roberts and whomever) adjust some based on who is pitching, who is batting, and then decrease whatever position variance he employs to be more effective on his 1B side? In my mind, a shift of a couple of feet toward 1B isn’t simply getting closer to Howard, it’s more like a step of modification from the most likely position given who is pitching and who is batting..

Another component may be the players’ confidence in going to his left or his right. Much like MY knows he isn’t a good initial first step to his right, versus Orlando Hudson who is equally confident going either way,

Might be a good study in a finite case, given that there are really no outliers that need dampering to get a good picture. Maybe all this is pretty useless, though, since getting to a ball doesn’t always mean making a play and getting an out. MIF glove ratings generally just puzzle me, and push me toward a binary situation. He makes the play or he doesn’t. One play at a time.

"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)

by Ed Coffin on Mar 14, 2009 7:20 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Because more balls are hit between 1B/2B and 3B/SS than 1B/2B and right foul line or 3B/SS and left foul line.

This could create an opportunity for more plays to his right and a very slight opportunity for more plays straight on, given normal positioning of a second baseman.

Unless I am missing an important piece of info (and I apologize if this is the case), when I map the infield, I use 4 sections. More balls (ie, more opportunities) are put in play between in the 2 middle sections than the outer two. Also, I believe the 2 middle sections are considered larger areas than the outside sections.

It makes sense in my mind…. oh well

I miss 1989. I miss 1996. Please make me miss another season in 2008.

by Chaim Witz on Mar 15, 2009 3:02 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

balls up the middle

are typically harder plays – back hand and long throw against your momentum. so covering the hole would seem to give him a statistical advantage in my mind – more net plays. plus, a rangy first baseman is gonna cut off a regularly positioned 2nd baseman from time to time anyway, resulting in fewer chances.

by SteveP on Mar 15, 2009 12:22 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

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