Sunday a.m. things

by Adam J. Morris on Mar 15, 2009 10:41 AM CDT Comment 64 comments

Solid, encouraging outing by Matt Harrison yesterday. Having Harrison establish himself this season as a nice back of the rotation guy would be a very good thing, and Richard Durrett talks about the progress Harrison is making at the DMN blog.

Jason Jennings was underwhelming yesterday, but Jeff Wilson writes that Jennings expects to be back in the majors in a starting rotation this year, if not in Texas then with another team. He can opt out of his deal on April 25, so if Jennings pitches well in the minors the first few weeks but there's no opening in the Ranger rotation, I expect he'll end up bailing and signing elsewhere.

Wilson also has some notes on some other Rangers, with Chris Davis saying he feels like he's getting more comfortable at the plate after his early slump, Kris Benson feeling good about how he's pitching, and Guillermo Moscoso being slated to pitch out of the bullpen to start the season.

Jim Reeves is advocating the Rangers signing Pedro Martinez and Pudge Rodriguez, with the Pedro signing allowing Scott Feldman or Brandon McCarthy to move into a setup role, and Pudge pushing Taylor Teagarden to AAA to catch everyday (which then, of course, would raise the question of what you'd do with Max Ramirez, who at this point is slated to go to AAA to catch every day).

Personally, I'd pass on both of those guys...and since Reeves says the Rangers have orders to cut payroll, not add it, it seems unlikely either of them are in the picture anyway. Plus, Pedro has been pretty clear that he wants to pitch for an N.L. team, which would take him out of the mix as well.

Mike Hindman runs down the Rangers outfielders over at Inside Corner.

In case you missed it, the U.S. had the mercy rule called in its WBC game with Puerto Rico last night, losing 11-1 after 7 innings.

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Interesting tidbit on Salty in todays newberg report as well...

As the intrasquad game was going on, directly behind us on one of the practice fields was a batting practice group that included Ian Kinsler, Michael Young, Josh Hamilton, David Murphy, Teagarden, and Hank Blalock, and a hitter whose reps at the plate had me turn around twice, thinking from the sound of contact that Hamilton must have been taking his rips. Saltalamacchia is hitting balls, just as Hamilton did last March, that have you waiting to hear some sort of rifle range reverb.

Right now, Saltalamacchia is different. Different from what he was a year ago, and different from almost every other hitter who wears a Rangers uniform to work. Hope this last

Rocky Mountain Ranger

by Strangers on Mar 15, 2009 10:55 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

jim reeves us a moron. USA was embarassing. And Newberg has a mancrush on Salty. I hope it lasts as well

Another one bites the dust! And another one, and another one, and another one bites the dust!

by NothinG on Mar 15, 2009 11:34 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Gross

That’s what I think of Jim Reeves’ proposition.

-- Micah
Baseball Is My Boyfriend
I want to be the next Annie Savoy.

by baseballismyboyfriend on Mar 15, 2009 11:34 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I'm all for Pedro

he’s still better than any of our starters right now. But I agree – I don’t see him playing for a non-obvious contender in the AL with a jet stream ballpark. So its not worth dwelling on.

Pudge doesn’t have a place in Texas anymore. I love the guy, and while sentimentally it’d be great to see him retire a Ranger, it just doesn’t make sense. If there was a big Tea/Salty for Buchholz deal, then yeah, bring Pudge in to split catching time with the remaining guy. Otherwise, pass.

by JBImaknee on Mar 15, 2009 11:37 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

i don't even know if it makes sense with a trade

"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."

by ab03 on Mar 15, 2009 11:45 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think so either

I’d rather have Salty or Tea full time than have either split with Pudge (who wouldn’t be a 2 game a week backup if he were here). Just saying that that is the only circumstance I could even see it as possibly happening. Barring a catcher trade, there is a 0% chance of Pudge returning to Texas.

by JBImaknee on Mar 15, 2009 12:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think it (Pudge) really would've depended on the trade.

I think it’d’ve made a lot of sense if we’d dealt Salty, cause I’d want a real starter-capable backup catcher in here if we were going with Tea full time, given his extensive injury history.

Also I think a lot of it depends on Pudge.

If he was willing to come in for 1-2mm and be a 30-50 game starter and be a positive guy on the bench and in the media, then I think he could’ve been a real plus no matter who we dealt.

The guy’s a legend here.

As long as I was sure he’d accept a backup role I don’t think i’d’ve been against bringing him in here had we dealt someone.

As it stand now, though…

Yah, No.

We have 3 starter quality catchers.

That’s enough, imo.

The 40 Trumps All!!!

I love you, Marcus Lemon.

"I don’t have any respect for anybody on here. Everyone on here is a fucking asshole who thinks they’re god compared to everyone else." -iorange555, throwing one of his patented sandy-vagina'd hissy fits.

by thedirkatron on Mar 15, 2009 3:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pudge

He would have been one of the worst choices if a trade happened. He is a legend here with fans and because of that as soon as one of the young guys went into a slump the talk would start that Pudge should be starting more. And by the sound of things he wouldn’t have been happy being a once or twice a week starter. We signed a perfect backup catcher in Melhuise should a trade happen. Someone whos not gonna kill you when they do have to play but perfectly content to sit a majority of the time and not complain and be a good clubhouse guy. Sort of like Cat in his 25th man spot.

Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.

by bigsteve on Mar 15, 2009 3:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

Although we could do better than Melhuse for a backup.

Now blogging again (temporarily) at "Hello Win Column".

by lonestarJon on Mar 15, 2009 3:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Is Pudge really a starter-capable backup right now?

by Adam J. Morris on Mar 15, 2009 3:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think so.

At least more so than the other crap floating around on the FA market this Winter.

I don’t think he’d be good anymore, but he wouldn’t be an absolute drag on the team if forced into a 5 days a week role like a Melhuse would.

The 40 Trumps All!!!

I love you, Marcus Lemon.

by thedirkatron on Mar 15, 2009 9:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Melhuise will never be asked to catch 5 days a week

No backup on this club would be. With Max in AAA if a catcher goes down for any period of time he would get called up.

Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.

by bigsteve on Mar 15, 2009 9:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well, you would hope not

Washington seems to seriously hate Max though. He wouldn’t even play him when a gimpy Saltalamacchia was his only other option last June-July.

Now blogging again (temporarily) at "Hello Win Column".

by lonestarJon on Mar 15, 2009 11:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

x

he’s still better than any of our starters right now.

No, he’s really not.

He hasn’t thrown as many as 140 innings in a season since 2005.

He had an ERA of 5 and a half in a pitcher’s park in the N.L. last season.

He had a very good ERA in 2007, but in only 28 innings.

And he wasn’t good in 2006, either.

He’s old, isn’t good, can’t give you many innings, and he’d require a major league deal for several million dollars.

I’d rather go with Benson or Jennings than Pedro.

by Adam J. Morris on Mar 15, 2009 11:52 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

agree 100%

Pedro is just another has been looking for a payday. stick to the plan. let the kids pitch. dominate the world 2010-2015. its not that complicated. reeves is an idiot

by spliffy on Mar 15, 2009 12:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm basing it a lot on what he looked like in those WBC games

which admittedly is a risky move. But he simply looked like he had an intensity in those games that he has lacked since going to the Mets. Last year he was distracted by his father’s death, and the year before unhealthy. I think it is far more likely he could return to a good form for a year or two before hanging it up than repeating last year’s mediocrity.

The disagreement is really how we each see the Rangers rotation. You are always an optimist about their pitching during spring training. I don’t share that optimism. I just don’t see Millwood and Padilla as good pitchers. They are halfway between league average and replacement level. Its not a stretch to anticipate Pedro, if healthy, being better than them this season. Harrison and McCarthy both have good potential, and are obviously better long-term bets than Pedro, but it seems silly to have any confidence in either. Feldman, Benson, Jennings, etc…. sorry if i’m not getting excited.

I’m not advocating getting him. It doesn’t make sense with where this team is at. But there is a decent shot that Pedro’s 2009 numbers will be better than any in the Rangers rotation.

by JBImaknee on Mar 15, 2009 12:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

That is the most senseless thing that I have heard,

well, since AdMo decided to post links to Reevo’s column. Wait, that was this morning…

I’m not advocating getting him. It doesn’t make sense with where this team is at. But there is a decent shot that Pedro’s 2009 numbers will be better than any in the Rangers rotation.

http://minormoosings.blogspot.com/

by Goyogringo on Mar 15, 2009 12:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

How is that insane?

I’m not saying that it WILL happen. But there is a good chance that will be the case – I don’t think saying 50% is that much of a stretch.

Basically, we’re arguing about what the odds are Pedro Martinez puts up a sub 4.50 ERA, 160 innings season. Because no Rangers pitcher has broken 4.50 since Chris Young and Kenny Rogers in 2005 (though in 2006, Padilla and Millwood were right at 4.50). Maybe BMac could do that if he’s heatlhy, or maybe Padilla or Milly decides to actually put some effort into the season. But who is banking on any of those?

If Pedro is healthy, he can put up those numbers. So we’re arguing about how healthy he’ll be. Now, that is a big IF – that’s almost like saying IF B-Mac is healthy. But presuming a team wouldn’t pay lots of money to him if he’s obviously injured, and he looked healthy versus the Netherlands…

by JBImaknee on Mar 15, 2009 1:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

A sub-4.50 ERA in what park?

Putting up a sub-4.50 ERA in Shea or Chavez Ravine isn’t the same as doing it at TBIA.

I think the chances that Pedro could give you 160 innings and a sub-4.50 ERA at TBIA are less than 10%.

by Adam J. Morris on Mar 15, 2009 1:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ry Cooder

Rocky Mountain Ranger

by Strangers on Mar 15, 2009 2:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not necessarily an optimist

I just don’t see that a guy who hasn’t had a good season since 2005 is better than anyone currently in the rotation, which was what you originally said.

by Adam J. Morris on Mar 15, 2009 12:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

If I had to build a team to try to win a World Series this year

and I had to fill my last rotation spot with one of Pedro, Millwood, Padilla, BMac, Harrison, Feldman, Benson, or Jennings; I’d pick Pedro.

Of course, such hypotheticals have lots of contingencies – do I care more about run prevention or innings? Is it more important to be guaranteed at least mediocre 180 innings, or have a guy with equal chances of flaming out or being a major contributor? My choice of Pedro is based on the fact he has the best chance of anyone on that list to be a very good contributor. If you’re more interested in a LAIE, then yeah, you take one of the Rangers current LAIE’s. When projecting which pitcher is more valuable, it really depends on what situation you’re bringing him into.

by JBImaknee on Mar 15, 2009 1:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I guess I don't know...

…what you expect from Pedro.

80 innings with a 3.75 ERA? 120 innings with 4.50 ERA? 180 innings with a 3.50 ERA?

I think if you are Texas and you sign him, you are hoping, best case, he gives you 120 innings with a 4.25 or so ERA.

I just don’t see that a roster spot, and $5-7 million, and bumping Feldman or McCarthy from the rotation, is worth the 10% chance or so that you get that from him in 2009.

by Adam J. Morris on Mar 15, 2009 1:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

120 innings, 4.25 ERA

I think whoever signs him isn’t hoping that is the best case, I think that is what they’d expect out of him. His best case scenario is better than that.

Frankly, I don’t know if Pedro is really healthy or not, which is what this boils down to. If healthy, an ERA in the low 4’s is a perfectly reasonable expectation. And better than I think any Rangers pitcher will do. If he’s not healthy, then he’ll probably be bad and I’m just wrong. Who knows.

by JBImaknee on Mar 15, 2009 2:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pedro

A 4.25 ERA at TBIA isn’t the same as a 4.25 ERA somewhere else…it is more like a 3.75 ERA at Chavez Ravine or Shea Stadium, for example.

And fwiw, every projection system I’ve seen has Pedro at worst than a 4.25 ERA (at Shea) and less than 120 innings…someone expecting to sign him and get 120 innings (which he barely hit in 2006, and did do the past two years) and better than the equivalent of a 4.25 ERA at TBIA is fooling themselves.

As for the health issue…he’s 37 years old, and even in his prime, was fragile. He’s had persistent health issues the past several years that have slowed him, and expecting him to suddenly, in his late 30s, after such a lengthy list of problems, get healthy and stay healthy isn’t, I don’t think, realistic.

by Adam J. Morris on Mar 15, 2009 2:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’d rather go with Benson or Jennings than Pedro.

I hope you’re saying this only because Pedro would cost more and this team has no money, because all things being equal, Pedro is still a far superior pitcher and a far better bet for this season, no matter how many A ball players Benson can strike out or how many times Jennings can touch 90 with his fastball this spring.

by clark on Mar 15, 2009 12:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

x

I hope you’re saying this only because Pedro would cost more and this team has no money, because all things being equal, Pedro is still a far superior pitcher and a far better bet for this season, no matter how many A ball players Benson can strike out or how many times Jennings can touch 90 with his fastball this spring.

I’m saying that because those guys will take minor league deals and can sit in the minors as insurance until we need them, whereas Pedro will take a major league deal for at least $5 million — really, probably more to get him to pitch for Texas — and will bump one of the young guys from the rotation.

And, really, I expect that one of those two — Jennings, most likely — will be at least close to as good as, if not as good as or better than, Pedro in 2009.

I don’t know why you would argue that Pedro is a far superior pitcher and a far better bet for this season…Jennings, at least, has been an above-average starter more recently than Pedro has.

by Adam J. Morris on Mar 15, 2009 1:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

As you have mentioned

many times, Jason Jennings has been an above average starter for exactly one full season, and that was in 2006. Alas, that is still one more season than Benson.

Obviously we have no way of knowing at this point, but if Pedro is actually healthy this year, I would take him over “Jenson” in a heartbeat. But as you mentioned, the fact is that Pedro will not sign in Texas and has far more pitcher-friendly teams vying for his services, so it doesn’t really matter.

by clark on Mar 15, 2009 1:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

x

many times, Jason Jennings has been an above average starter for exactly one full season, and that was in 2006. Alas, that is still one more season than Benson.

Benson wasn’t an above-average starter in 1999 or 2000? And in terms of FIP, he was also above-average in 2004.

He’s not anything special, nor is Jennings (whose 2001 season was also above-average, I’d say, along with 2006), but I think you’ve got a better chance of getting either of them to be a LAIE than you do with Martinez, and given how this team is currently situated, I’d rather get 180 innings of 4.75-5.00 ERA than 100 innings of the Martinez Mystery Pack.

by Adam J. Morris on Mar 15, 2009 1:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

when do i get to play catch with derek holland?

"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."

by ab03 on Mar 15, 2009 11:54 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs

I just thought of a great promotion idea

Have a contest where the winner gets to catch Neftali Feliz for an entire bullpen session.

Also, have UT Southwestern Medical Center be the sponsor

by Telegraph on Mar 15, 2009 1:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The runner-up gets to catch Turnbow

by Telegraph on Mar 15, 2009 1:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

That would be sponsored

by Wall Street.

"I saw your act, just didn't make it for me. Just a lot of fluff."

by scoop16 on Mar 15, 2009 1:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Catch Feliz

You’re crazy.

"My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is,
‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all.
So I’m not going to say anything at all.
Is my mother the greatest or what?"
- Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, after signing Ichiro to a $90 million contract

by tyd3311 on Mar 15, 2009 1:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Reeve's column

is idiocy on a scale previously occupied only by the Grandpa Urine’s of the world. Sheesh. I wonder if he took idiot lessons, cause I dont think anyone could be born that clueless

by BEW on Mar 15, 2009 1:49 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Kinda ironic.

by brettgardner on Mar 15, 2009 2:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

x

Now blogging again (temporarily) at "Hello Win Column".

by lonestarJon on Mar 15, 2009 2:21 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Jennings Opt Out

He can opt out as well on April 1st. From Wilson’s column:

But the minor-league contract Jennings signed last month has two opt-out dates, April 1 and April 25. Plenty of scouts have seen him pitch, and more will watch him as those dates near.

Serenity now, insanity later.

-Lloyd Braun

by Kevin McBrayer on Mar 15, 2009 2:26 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Evan Grant

He has some musings up about players he’s seen at camp here.

Serenity now, insanity later.

-Lloyd Braun

by Kevin McBrayer on Mar 15, 2009 2:42 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Good stuff

Tommy Hunter is a large mammal.

My cool sig.

by Ryin A on Mar 15, 2009 3:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

who just tweaked his groin.

My cool sig.

by Ryin A on Mar 15, 2009 3:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Looked like he was chasing a mongoose turned loose in his pants.

Rangers Spring Training Radio Sked

by shroomer on Mar 15, 2009 4:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Where did the mongoose go?

“This video has been removed by the user.”

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Mar 15, 2009 5:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well I'll be damned

It was posted and was on the same user page as the video of Max and Holland. It had the d mag logo at the end so maybe Evan will post it over there.

Serenity now, insanity later.

-Lloyd Braun

by Kevin McBrayer on Mar 15, 2009 5:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

MJH's Outfield Take

I llike and appreciate his ability to make comparatives about the crowded OF staffing. And agree that Hamilton and Cruz are, and should be, givens. And without digging into jsstification for the opinion, I have a sense that Brandon Boggs is #3 for the long term picture, and Julio Borbon #4 (and the ray of light should God forbid anything happen to Hamilton). I realize and understand the affection for David Murphy, and like him as a player and a person, but he’s actually (after Byrd until or unless Byrd is moved) the sixth best present OF option, albeit he earned his MLB shot over the past year+.

Good problem to have.

"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)

by Ed Coffin on Mar 15, 2009 3:26 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Would someone please enlighten me on the love of Brandon Boggs

For instance here what on earth makes him the 3rd best long term OF for us?

The guy is a nice player. Probably in his prime will be a semi regular OF on a good team or a starter on a bad one. He plays good defense but probably will never be a gold glove guy. It seems to me like the guy is one of those guys that has a breakout season and all of a sudden people think hes gonna be a superstar when in reality his ceiling is probably slightly lower than his absolute best minor league season.

Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.

by bigsteve on Mar 15, 2009 3:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

well, i think MJH’s analysis there is pretty good…

also, what breakout season are you talking about and who said ‘hes gonna be a superstar’?

Stability is key, and JD is a Beast.
Jindal - 2012
"AMMIITAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAABHH!!!"

by Longhorn on Mar 15, 2009 3:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

His breakout season in Frisco

And nobody actually said he was gonna be a superstar but plenty of people infer it on here. I read MJHs analysis but I simply don’t agree. All this talk about him not getting consistent playing time last year is, IMO, pure crap. Looking at his gamelogs from last year he played very very regularly, probably more regularly than you would expect from a guy with as little upper minors time as he got. The only real time it became irregular was when we were on the road against NL teams when we were without a DH forcing Bradley into the field. And then after August 24th when Nelson Cruz was called up and as we learned this winter he was apparently suffering from a pretty significant shoulder injury. The only time I can see where he sat for an extended period was in late July while we were on a long road trip. He didn’t play for 5 days in a row. The only thing I can think of was either thats when he got hurt initially or we were trying to play Bradley and Byrd to audition them for trade purposes.

Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.

by bigsteve on Mar 15, 2009 3:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

x

And nobody actually said he was gonna be a superstar but plenty of people infer it on here.

Boggs as a superstar? I don’t see it. The closest you’ll get is Josey’s incessant “Boggs = The Thinking Man’s Player,” which I think is more of a swipe at Ron Washington because he thinks Wash isn’t a Boggs fan.

Boggs is a guy who is probably a nice 4th outfielder, someone who would be a great platoon partner for David Murphy and who could, if he improves his contact rate some, maybe be a solid starting OF’er.

But I don’t think anyone suggests or implies he’s going to be a superstar.

by Adam J. Morris on Mar 15, 2009 3:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

poor man's Jay Payton

I'm Matt mutha-effing Bush, bitches, and mutha-eff East County.

"I'm as passionate and knowlegeable as any fan out there." Josey Wales

by Brian Thomas on Mar 15, 2009 4:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Interesting.

by brettgardner on Mar 15, 2009 4:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe superstar is a bit of a exagerration

But there are those who feel like he should be an everyday player and that he is a difference maker.

I agree with you Adam he is an ideal platoon guy and could possibly become a starter, especially on a bad team.

Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.

by bigsteve on Mar 15, 2009 4:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Right

I’ve never said that I think Boggs is a superstar or ever will become one. I think he’s capable of becoming a solid regular if given the chance. The fact that I probably put more emphasis on intangibles than (I think) you do probably has something to do with our divergence of opinion on BB.

I readily admit that I have a powerful pro-Boggs bias, but there is a ton of evidence to suggest that he’ll figure it out offensively…. show me a player whose core numbers got better at every level coming up through the minors and didn’t become a pretty solid MLB regular

As I’m sure you’ll agree, he’s the best defensive OF on the 40 right now for his anticipated position. Hamilton figures to once again be a well-below-average CF. Cruz should be solid in RF, but Boggs would be among the AL’s elite defensive LF’s.

We saw what happened to Murphy when he became an everyday player — he got worse. In the minors, Murphy was a pretty stagnant guy. Boggs, on the other hand, always seemed to improve in the minors.

What’s the argument that Murphy will suddenly get better and Boggs will suddenly get worse? I don’t follow.

by mjh on Mar 15, 2009 6:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Boggs

Throw away his AAA numbers last year because of small sample size and he hasn’t really improved at each level besides AA which looks more and more to me like an aberration than an indicator of future performance. Heck he was a .300 hitter in his first 14 games in the majors but fell off big time thereafter. Even with his breakthrough AA campaign hes never hit over .266 and his slugging has been right around .450 everywhere (besides that 2007 breakthrough season). He does have nice plate discipline which with his speed is an asset. But I think at his best he’ll be a .260/.350/.450 guy.

As for his defense I think its nice, not elite like you, but I have doubts he is anything other than a LF. I know he played CF in the minors but I think the lack of CF time last year is a huge red flag. Marlon Byrd wasn’t so good out there that if another guy was capable of top notch defense they couldn’t crack lineup.

Im not advocating getting rid of him but I think he needs time in AAA and when he does come back up it should be in a platoon with Murphy. I think he can a great influence on a team with his hard work and his attitude.

Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.

by bigsteve on Mar 15, 2009 7:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

As for Murphy

The only thing I think he’ll improve on is possibly his slugging but only by a little bit. His OBP has always been right around the .320-.330 area but his slugging has improved from a tick above .300 in High A right after being drafted to almost .450 in AAA and I think ultimately it will settle into around .475-480 in the majors. I think he is a .275/.325/.475 kind of player

Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.

by bigsteve on Mar 15, 2009 7:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Boggs and Murphy

When you say Boggs has improved at each level, that’s 100% true. But when you say that, it makes it seem like he has done something truly amazing when in reality, he hasn’t done that at all. He started out in Spokane as a 21 year old with a .235/.360/.369 line and at Clinton the next season, he posted a .246/.353/.437 line. Is that improvement? Definitely, but its not hard to improve on what Boggs did. And in the Cal league in 2006, he posted just about the same line with a slightly improved BA and that’s about it. He’s had one very good season in the minors as a 24 year old in high A/AA. Even then, he was still striking out a lot though it was nice to see him finally hit for some real power. Its impossible to really argue against his defense. He’s had great reports about it throughout the minors and was impressive when in the Majors. But his bat has a hell of a lot to be concerned about and I’m very skeptical that he’s gotten better at every level rather than just have a terrible stint in Spokane and a great season in Frisco.

As for Murphy, I’m not quite sure what you are talking about with him getting worse when he was an everyday player. He was pretty much playing everyday at the end of 2007 and likewise in 2008. Before getting injured, he was even starting to show that he could handle lefties. Also, he had a pretty poor June with a .700 OPS for the month. From July to the end of the season, he posted an .870 OPS and was in the middle of a great hot streak when he got hurt. I fail to see how he was getting worse when becoming an everyday player. His minor league career wasn’t too impressive, but he’s shown a late power surge to make his career look a lot more promising. As long as he doesn’t let his walk rate dip below where it is, he has shown a lot of reason to be optimistic. For me, what someone does in 174 Major League games is more telling than what someone has done in 130 games between high A and AA in 2007.

By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw

by Gdawg on Mar 15, 2009 7:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Regardless of slope up or slope down

Data, as well as eye test evaluation, a few things are apparent (at least to me)
As of March 2009:

Better reads (Boggs)
Better arm (Boggs)
Better plate patience (Boggs)
Better LD contact (Boggs)
Better overall contact (Murphy)
Better contact power (Murphy)
Better range (Boggs)
Better base runner (Boggs)
Better interview personna (Murphy)
Better local endorsement (Murphy)

Neither is a bad player, that’s not the point. Take your choice.

"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)

by Ed Coffin on Mar 15, 2009 7:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't disagree with anything you've said

Though I think the base running part is pretty much null since neither is making stupid mistakes on the base paths nor are they serious SB threats. Both guys can steal a base in the right situation and have taken advantage of it, but neither are doing that enough to make it a point about their ability.

And I think you should add strikeouts to that list. Murphy clearly has the edge there. I think strikeouts are overrated by the casual fan (and ESPN "analyst"), but you just can’t strike out once every 3 ABs (a little less per PA) without a lot of power. And that’s why I’m more of a Murphy fan than a Boggs fan. The defense is great, but I don’t see the gain in defense worth the offensive loss. Of course, that is if given an ultimatum where you have to choose one. I think Boggs as a 4th or 5th OF is great for the team.

By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw

by Gdawg on Mar 15, 2009 9:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ks

I think the strikeouts are a big thing. There are outs and then there are productive outs. Strikeouts are not productive. Much like my feelings with slugs and their walks there are times where putting the ball in play, regardless of the outcome, is better than striking out. Runners can’t move along, guys can’t score. Nothing good can come from a strikeout whereas a regular out can have positive outcomes.

Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.

by bigsteve on Mar 15, 2009 9:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well I don't agree with that

A strikeout isn’t the worst thing that can happen. But you can’t strike out like Ryan Howard does without hitting 40+ HRs a year like he does.

By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw

by Gdawg on Mar 15, 2009 9:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

What is the worst thing that can happen?

by Andy Seiler on Mar 15, 2009 9:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I thought

I covered that with the “better overall contact hitter” line. Murphy does make contact more often, Boggs takes more pitches. And K rates probably matter in the end, despite my persuasion that patience generally trumps non-selectivity at the plate. Again, your own call as to which differences between them are more significant. And as usual, if one is IMO more valuable defensively by a larger margin than the other’s value spread offensively, I’ll take the defensive player.

"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)

by Ed Coffin on Mar 15, 2009 9:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I didn't know you were talking including strikeouts in that overall contact hitter

And I agree that you can be valuable enough on defense to be better than the more offensive player, but I just don’t think that is the case with these 2. If it turns out that way, I’ll switch over to the Boggs fan club.

By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw

by Gdawg on Mar 15, 2009 9:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs