Our weak link

by clark on Mar 16, 2009 10:27 AM CDT Comment 25 comments

For the most part, this has been a spring of pleasant surprises. The rotation has received a number of effective and efficient starts from its younger members and Millwood has already thrown more “A” game innings than I can ever remember him throwing as a Rangers pitcher. Our veterans in the lineup look to be rounding into shape and the core group has had a strong spring. Our young catchers have only increased their value, and our young OFs have displayed their tantalizing physical tools. Most important, the injury bug has stayed away (vigorously knocking on wood).

But I am still worried, because without a strong bullpen, this team is destined to fail. The formula for winning in Texas was well established by Melvin’s late 90’s teams and revisited and reconfirmed in 2004: a good offense, a decent and efficient enough rotation, and a strong bullpen. We don’t exactly have a rotation full of established workhorses. Rather we are asking many pitchers to either establish new professional career highs after setting doing the same last year (Harrison, Feldman) or to reestablish themselves as effective 180-200 inning guys after a couple of years of falling pathetically short and with a contract situation acting as some sort of carrot-on-a-stick/elixir (Millwood, Padilla). But even if we get significantly more innings from our starters (and it is almost impossible not to after last season), we will still need an effective bullpen in order to compete and, some might argue, to grow as a team, as nothing causes clubhouse strife and managerial second-guessing like late inning losses.

It would be heartbreaking to see the team finally assemble a decent rotation, only to see a weak bullpen prove to be the Achilles heal of the team. But as of right now, we are looking at only three bullpen locks in Francisco, Wilson (whose status as a lock is now in question because of a blister injury that could linger and will certainly cause him to miss a significant amount of ST) and Eddie Guardardo (who has been utterly hittable since last July). Beyond that, the best bets are probably Nippert (whose lack of options and strong spring have all but assured his spot as resident long man) and Warner Madrigal. But Mad Dog is a guy who, going into ST, most agreed would benefit greatly from more time in the minors.

Josh Rupe is beginning to near Loe/Littleton territory in his frustrating stuff/results quotient and his lack of control and player options, and he is coming off a year in which his arm was abused. It would be a huge help to the org if he stepped up and looked sharp from here on out and then proceeded to remain healthy, but that is hard to bank on. Our wildcards, Donnelly and Turnbow, still look like wildcards, and at this point are probably behind Willie Eyre because Eyre is already on the 40. Guys like Diamond, Torres and Gabbard, three quality arms who could have laid claim to a spot with a strong, healthy spring, have taken themselves out of consideration. The 40 man roster and player options will undoubtedly have a large effect on our ultimate assembly of arms, possibly to the detriment of the team.

Granted, it would only take three or four strong outings in a row by someone like Rupe or Turnbow to drastically alter the projection, but as of right now, with so few sure things, I just don’t see a way this collection of guys can congeal into a strong bullpen unit.

Sorry for the length. Can anyone give me "reasons to believe"?

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Bullpen

I think our late inning guys are pretty solid and if your starters are going out and giving you 6+ innings on most nights then those “middle relief guys” won’t be needed as much which should make them more effective

Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.

by bigsteve on Mar 16, 2009 10:55 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Juan Cruz certainly would have helped

Beimel and Ohman would both help and are available.

Rupe just doesn’t seem like part of the solution to me. Neither does Turnbow or Eyre. Donnelly might.

Moscoso, Strop, and possibley Hunter and Diamond could help later on this season. Possibly Kiker as well.

But basically our bullpen as is seems underwhelming. So basically, I agree with you and I can’t provide those “reasons to believe” that you are looking for.

Doctor please. Some more of these.

by tricer on Mar 16, 2009 10:58 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I think that from the standpoint of it being underwhelming, you're absolutely correct...

But if you want a “reason to believe,” look no further than the 2004 bullpen. Extremely underwhelming, and certainly not a force to be reckoned with by any means, but it got the job done. That team had guys come from out of nowhere to step up and take charge of roles that needed to be filled. Maybe those guys are already on the team this year, or maybe they are waiting in the wings as you suggest Tricer, but never count out the bullpen in Texas, mainly because (as the great Forrest Gump’s momma always said) you never know what you’re gonna get.

"Either we need to re-calibrate our rectangle, or Alfonzo Marquez is not having a good night." - Josh Lewin

by utlonghorn24 on Mar 16, 2009 11:30 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

the problem is

looking back at that ‘04 team, two things stand out. One, the team had two starters throw over 207 innings (Rogers and Drese). Getting two guys to do that this year would go a long way to assuaging some of my concerns. That said, there is reason to believe our 3-5 could be much stronger, so let’s call that a wash.

But beyond that, let’s match bullpen roles. Even if we assume that Francisco can be that year’s Cordero (and that would be huge deal looking at Cordero’s 04 numbers), who is this year’s Carlos Almanzar? We can only hope Eyre, Turnbow or Donnelly can give us 73 effective late innings. Can Madrigal be this year’s Francisco, the rookie(ish) pitcher who becomes a key 7th inning guy? Again, we have to go on hope and nothing resembling precedent there. Can Wilson and Guardardo (or Gabbard or Torres) be this year’s Shouse and Mahay? That would be huge.

As others have said, the bullpen is a capricious beast. Maybe by June Diamond has turned into an 8th inning monster and Gabbard has proven the loogy role to be his ultimate niche. But every year teams can look at arms and hope.

by clark on Mar 16, 2009 1:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

You're absolutely right on all those points...

The only reason I brought up the ‘04 bullpen is because we went into that season with very similar concerns compared to this year’s squad. It really wasn’t much more than a simple comparison to those similarities, but hoping for similar results is probably far-fetched.

"Either we need to re-calibrate our rectangle, or Alfonzo Marquez is not having a good night." - Josh Lewin

by utlonghorn24 on Mar 16, 2009 2:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

i agree

the bullpen is usually one of those “best laid plans” situations. We went into last year thinking we had a bunch of rock solid late inning arms, and Benoit got hurt, Wilson got hurt and proved ineffective otherwise, and things generally went to hell. this year we could easily see the inverse. or we could see a bunch of back breaking blown leads. I have no idea. I just wish we had more high upside guys competing who I could pin my hopes on.

by clark on Mar 16, 2009 2:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Absolutely.

It’s the inability to depend on the pen one way or the other that I think frustrates so many of us. At least if we knew there was a glaring weakness that couldn’t be fixed right away, then we could plan accordingly. But since we have so many up-and-comers, it’s tough to know exactly how to proceed in terms of what to adjust or leave alone.

"Either we need to re-calibrate our rectangle, or Alfonzo Marquez is not having a good night." - Josh Lewin

by utlonghorn24 on Mar 16, 2009 2:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

like the others

can’t offer a reason to believe except that i think JD realizes this is our weak spot, and he’s shown inventiveness in the past with making some deals late in Spring Training. Here’s hoping.

by jcAustin on Mar 16, 2009 12:27 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

bullpens

They are funny things. Every year relief pitchers come out of nowhere and also fade into obscurity. I think the strategy for a good one is to assemble a whole bunch of people and toss them out there to see what sticks. Either that or sign a pair of stars to anchor it but that really only works if you bring cash.

by bushe on Mar 16, 2009 12:42 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

The bullpen won't matter

The rotation will be our weakest link. I also think not having a real bat to put behind Hamilton will cause regression in his stats. Maybe Davis is that guy, but that is alot of K’s to have in that spot. We will miss Bradley’s bat more than most think. We just won’t miss his desire to stay in the lineup.

I agree with the point that bullpen are funny things. I think Eddie pitched far beyond his current talent level last year. So to expect him to be anygood this year seems crazy. I believe Eddie will be cut by the ASB. That leaves CJ to handle lefties YIKES!

Long year ahead but the light is at the end of the tunnel. The second half of the season should be exciting with all the young kids taking over. Hopefully by then Padilla, Millwood, Cat, Eddie, Hank, Jones, Byrd and Visquel will all have been flushed and stop being progress stoppers.

by Spadedsnake on Mar 16, 2009 1:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Eddie has been pitching "far beyond his current talent level" for years

I think you are mistaken in your assumption.

I'm Matt mutha-effing Bush, bitches, and mutha-eff East County.

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by Brian Thomas on Mar 16, 2009 3:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I know that this focuses on 2009

but in the big picture, I don’t feel too bad. Francisco (though they only control him through 2010), Wilson, Madrigal and the guys who will start the season in the minors (Strop, Hunter, Moscoso, Diamond, maybe Kiker) look pretty good to me. I think that stuff has enough stuff to form a solid pen if they can stay healthy.

by Brett Perryman on Mar 16, 2009 1:02 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

10 pen

Also, Corey Young and Tim Murphy have been touted as possible fast trackers that could figure in the mix in 2010 pen from the left side.

Doctor please. Some more of these.

by tricer on Mar 16, 2009 1:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

i too

feel better about the future, but the bullpen is one of those things that I don’t care too much to project in the future. Bullpens around baseball are littered with failed starters and NRIs who had no idea they would be in that position two years prior. A starting OF or a rotation is worth projecting two, three, and even five years out, but a bullpen is a year to year thing, and this year, I’m worried.

by clark on Mar 16, 2009 1:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think, for me

the tipping point, where I went from feeling okay to legitimately worried, came with CJ Wilson’s blister. We already know that CJ can psych himself out of pitching effectively despite his natural talents, and his myspace quotes already had me worried that he is more concerned about his future role than his role in helping this year’s team win. And now with the blister, which is the sort of seemingly small ailment that can linger for a while, I have a hard time depending on him in a late inning role, especially to start the season. With Benoit already out, Francisco has gone from a high-upside question mark last offseason to a trial closer last season and now to our only healthy and potentially dominant late inning arm going this season. He has risen through the ranks by attrition more than anything else.

All I know is, if our starter is done after 6 and we’re sitting on a 3-2 lead, I don’t feel too good. And with all the cheap bullpen arms that were (and in some cases still are) out there this offseason, it seems like a crappy weak link for a team to have.

by clark on Mar 16, 2009 1:36 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Agree with this whole fanpost and thread.

Been on my mind the last few days – maybe since CJ got the blister like you mention.
I’ve kinda been wondering if Meno was gonna do pen eval soon but you beat him to it.

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by shroomer on Mar 16, 2009 1:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

3-2 lead

you mean 7-6 lead, but I agree with the tone and main point. It’s still pretty early to worry about Wilson’s blister — I’m much more worried about his overactive brain. That little snippet from Grant about the team not being aware of him returning to using the windup is just one more straw on the “CJ can’t get out of his own way” camel back.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Mar 16, 2009 2:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

very true

but somehow it stings just a little bit more to lose a late inning lead when the starter was so effective.

by clark on Mar 16, 2009 2:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yep

And it indicates that CJ might not be communicating with his coaches again, like last year (which lead to him pitching hurt for so long).

Now blogging again (temporarily) at "Hello Win Column".

by lonestarJon on Mar 16, 2009 6:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

sorta OT

How much better would you feel about this years pitching if we had Bowden and Bard? Bard would fit as the fireballing one inning guy that might quickly work his way into a late inning role and Bowden would obviously slot in the back of the rotation and possibly push someone like Feldman into the pen, which would strengthen both areas.

Doctor please. Some more of these.

by tricer on Mar 16, 2009 2:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bard

at least the last time I looked, has been pretty much unhittable this spring. Bowden has been hit pretty hard, but I still like his upside. So yeah, I was on board with that trade all winter, and I still am.

More realistic, probably, would be us dealing one of our OFs. As much as I like Byrd in the Roberto Kelly role, if he can bring in a legit, controllable 7th or 8th inning guy, I might think hard about it.

I’d throw the name Peter Moylan out there, an extreme gb guy for the Braves who is controllable for 4 more years, but he is coming off surgery so I’m a little hesitant. Still, he’s put up some sick numbers in his ML career.

by clark on Mar 16, 2009 2:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Neither is a lock for this season

Bowden’s had a handful of innings above AA up to this point and is only 22 now. Bard has spent only the past year working as a RP. Both would be nice to have (ignoring the trade aspect of things), but I don’t think that it increases someone’s confidence in this team’s rotation/bullpen. In the end, it’s the same thing the Rangers are doing now where you are throwing as many good options as you can out there and hoping some of them stick. You still aren’t adding anyone with a proven track record in the Majors.

By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw

by Gdawg on Mar 16, 2009 2:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not too worried about the bullpen

I think FX2 is a very good RP who looked back to his old self towards the end of last season. I don’t know if he’ll be as good as Cordero was in 04 (looking back at that season, just wow), but if he just repeats last season then we have ourselves a great 9th inning option. And since he started off the season a bit shaky, I think its likely we’ll see Francisco have the best year of his career so far. I’m also not too concerned about CJ’s blister problem. It might cause some problems throughout the season, especially early on, but its still just a blister for a RP pitcher. He could end up missing some of the season, but it will go away eventually.

The rest of the bullpen is up for grabs, but there’s still reason to be optimistic. For one, you’re wrong on Guardado. Last July, hitters had the following line against him: .214/.255/.381. He was better in May and June, but that’s still a strong line. His biggest issue was a 6 game stretch at the end of August, beginning of September but he still finished the season nicely. I’m not expecting vintage Everyday Eddie, but he still has something left in the tank. Rupe is a guy I expect less out of, but he was about league average last season through the first half or so of the season. I think if he is used less often, he can be a league average guy again.

The other guys are guys that I think we can find a couple of good arms out of. Between the younger guys like Madrigal, Strop, Moscoso, Diamond, Bannister, Nippert, Mathis, and Hunter and then you have some other guys like Eyre and Turnbow, you’re going to get some nice production from at least part of that group. Madrigal already started showing some promise last season. The key thing for this team will be if the Rangers starting pitching can start throwing some innings.

By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw

by Gdawg on Mar 16, 2009 3:40 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I agree

..with the earlier comment that an Ohman, Beimel or Denys Reyes would have been a nice, cheap add. I hate to say it, but I think Eddie will get hit like a pinata at a kid’s birthday party.

"Who died and made you King?"

by randyd on Mar 16, 2009 10:05 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs