Tuesday a.m. things
by Adam J. Morris on Mar 17, 2009 9:30 AM CDT
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PrintQuiet day today.
Anthony Andro runs down a summary of where things stand this spring, with the most positive thing being the health of the starting rotation thusfar.
Richard Durrett has a good Q&A up with John Dewan on the Ranger defense, which includes a detailed analysis of the infield switch. According to Dewan, the Rangers were -34 runs on the left side of the infield last year, defensively, and he thinks Elvis Andrus can be +5 to +10 right off the bat at shortstop, with Young being around average at third base. If that's the case, then obviously, you are looking at a 40 run or so improvement in run prevention from last year just as a result of that switch.
Also a lot of other stuff there on the Ranger defense, so be sure to check that out...
Evan Grant talks to BA's John Manuel about the Andrus contract situation and whether the Rangers should start him in the minors for a few weeks to extend the time he's under team control.
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Parks with some gold from ST
http://www.bbtia.com/home/2009/3/17/prospect-interview-series-spring-training-edition.html
"[Font} doesn't turn 19 until the end of May and his heater can already hit 99 on the gun. That's baseball porn." - Jason Parks
by hightowersmith on Mar 17, 2009 9:41 AM CDT reply actions 2 recs
Holy cow, what an article
Parks is a stud. I loved the Smoak interview. He comes across as a guy who is very confident of his abilities, but at the same time know he has to continue to learn and adjust to get better. That kid is going to be a star.
Keith Law: (1:45 PM ET ) I think Michael Young should shut his mouth and move to third base.
Defensive positioning
I’m sure the Rangers are reading Dewan’s new edition, I hope they are anyway. Dewan certainly seems to feel that better positioning would go a long way in helping the team’s defense improve, with problems last year in 3 up the middle positions. And it seems that the combo of Andrus and Young on the left side, with better positioning from CF and 2B, the Rangers stand to gain about 4-5 wins just on defense. This should mitigate or even overcome the expected regression from the offense, leaving it up to the pitching to improve last year’s win total.
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Improving on last year's win total
Based on the projected lineup construction, I’d be real surprised if the offense regresses by more than those projected 4-5 defensive wins. Say the offense regresses by a couple of wins, we get 4-5 on defense. If the pitching is just a little bit more successful than last year (and there’s nowhere to go but up), that’s a nice improvement from 2008 to 2009.
Now, getting a little optimistic, as I am wont to do, here’s an interesting scenario:
1) We gain 4-5 defensive wins.
2) The breakout of Salty, full seasons from Kinsler and Davis, and Hambone maintaining beastly production all year combine to produce an offense almost identical to 2008.
3) On the pitching front, Padzilla gives us his contract-year routine, Millwood is less awful than 2008, Harrison takes a step forward, BMac stays healthy and is somewhere close to league average, Feldman moves to the long relief/swing role as D-Hol rolls into town and conjures up images of 2002 John Lackey, and the bullpen is unspectacular but solid. It might be unrealistic to expect all 6 of those things to happen, but say 4 or 5 of them do. How many pitching wins does that add?
4) Meanwhile, the Angels and A’s struggle with pitching injuries and Scioscia is hit with the realization that his offense actually does suck.
5) I’m not sayin’, I’m just sayin’…
Keith Law: (1:45 PM ET ) I think Michael Young should shut his mouth and move to third base.
You forgot
The team is almost certain to have fewer injuries than 2008. I still predict about 80 wins because some combination of health, better defense, still good offense will mean the team beats the low 70s win projections that are out there right now.
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Contract year routine
Man I wish people would stop saying that…
I'm Matt mutha-effing Bush, bitches, and mutha-eff East County.
"I'm as passionate and knowlegeable as any fan out there." Josey Wales
by Brian Thomas on Mar 17, 2009 11:10 AM CDT up reply actions
I think the contract year phenomenon is overrated
But if anybody were to kick it up a notch before free agency, I think Padzilla is the guy.
Keith Law: (1:45 PM ET ) I think Michael Young should shut his mouth and move to third base.
x
Millwood has real incentive to hit that vesting option…if he doesn’t he knows he is going to get a massive pay cut.
by FuturePants on Mar 17, 2009 12:17 PM CDT up reply actions
your comment
reminds me of what will carroll said – as much as we think dewan is pretty advanced, the actual clubs have analyses that are way more advanced than anything the general public has a hold of. I’m hoping the Rangers have something better than Dewan.
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
I suspect...
…they us Dewan’s stuff, PMR, and UZR, along with whatever they have in-house.
With defense, I think a lot of it is simply triangulation between the various methods.
by Adam J. Morris on Mar 17, 2009 10:41 AM CDT up reply actions
why do you think that (about triangulation)?
Those methods definitely seem advanced but they certainly aren’t the end all be all and I can see lots of ways where you can innovate. Moreover, you can assign one person to track one of your positions for the whole year – something Dewan might not be able to do.
I tend to believe Will Carroll when he says that the clubs have in house methods way more advanced. At least, I believe him that some clubs do, and would think the Rangers would be right there at the top.
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
well - i should clarify
there might be some triangulation – but I would just think that if they have a good in house solution, they would give it more credence than the three public ones.
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
I remember a report
that Daniels had Dewan’s previous edition on his reading list.
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sure
hopefully they read everything. But I’m saying I hope they have something better
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
Even if they don't have something unique...
Combining all the studies out there into a single metric would be as close as any unique metric with its inherent flaws.
by Andy Seiler on Mar 17, 2009 11:05 AM CDT up reply actions
Evan with some more nuggets:
"It doesn't look like he's trying. It kinda pisses me off," "He could throw 110 if he tried. The way it explodes out of his hand is really something special." ~ B-Mac on Feliz.
Grant has been steadfast on Madrigal
Needless to say, it’s a big help to the pen if he’s continued to improve that quickly.
by Brett Perryman on Mar 17, 2009 2:32 PM CDT up reply actions
X
Chris Britton won’t make the Padres. He’s probably going to be allowed to talk to other teams. Let’s bring him in here instead of Willie Eyre, et al.
The back half of Goldstein's organizational rankings
30. Houston Astros
Last Year’s Ranking: 29
Why They Might Be Better Than This: Brian Bogusevic’s transformation to successful everyday outfielder is for real; high-ceiling arms from the 2008 draft like Jordan Lyles and Ross Seaton are loaded with potential.
Why They Might Be Worse: They can’t be any worse than 30; top arm Bud Norris is looking more and more like a reliever in the end; highly regarded (at least internally) hitters like Chris Johnson and Drew Sutton have consistently been old for their levels.
23. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Last Year’s Ranking: 11
Why They Might Be Better Than This: Scouts still believe in Nick Adenhart’s stuff, and he showed up this spring throwing strikes; Hank Conger is one healthy season away from breaking out; pitchers like Trevor Reckling and Will Smith look like late-round finds.
Why They Might Be Worse: Jordan Walden’s issues with secondary pitches could catch up to him as he moves up; Conger can’t stay at catcher; outfielder Peter Bourjos has a leadoff man’s skill set without the necessary approach at the plate.
Outlook For 2010: After not having a first-round pick in each of the last two drafts, the Angels return with a pair of late first-round selections (24, 25) this year, and historically they’re not afraid of spending on players who drop; the lower levels of the system added several players with promise in ’08, so this ranking should go back up.
Rangers write up
will go something like this:
Why They Might Be Better Than This: They have Marcus Lemon, ‘nuff said.
Why They Might Be Worse: They’re not.
Goldstein finished typing and says “Is that better, Mr. Dirkatron? Please put down the baby!”
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Yeah
Which means it’ll be a nail biter.
"My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is,
‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all.
So I’m not going to say anything at all.
Is my mother the greatest or what?"
- Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, after signing Ichiro to a $90 million contract
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