A morsel on McCarthy's curveball
by Telegraph on Mar 2, 2009 2:56 PM CST
Email
PrintEverybody knows about how McCarthy decided to scrap his curveball (which is supposedly a plus pitch) for a slider. Apparently McCarthy wasn't all that comfortable with the curveball and could not control it very well (hat tip: BBTiA). So I briefly looked at some of the pitch f/x numbers from both 2007 and 2008 (beware of the SSS) to see if his discomfort was also reflected in results.
The one thing that stands out about the curveball is that almost nobody swings at the pitch and misses. In 2007, the swinging strike % on the curveball is a bit lower than 5%, and in 2008, it's even worse at 3% - Andruw probably swings and misses more than that in batting practice. The average starting pitcher gets about 7.8% swinging strike rates on the average of all of his pitches, and the swinging strike % are usually higher for breaking pitches than for fastballs - provided that the breaking pitch is any good. By comparison, McCarthy's fastball ended up getting about 7% swinging strikes in 2007 (which isn't bad at all), and further suggests that the curveball doesn't fool anyone (a real man's curveball like that of Ben Sheets gets 11.5% swinging strikes). Nevertheless, it seems mildly effective in avoiding being hit - partly because he threw it for a strike only 54% of the time in 2007, and slightly improved 61% strikes in 2008. As a reference, the strike rate of an average starter (for all his pitches) is about 64%.
On the other hand, his changeup (also supposed to be a plus pitch) got swinging strikes 15% of the time in 2007 and 14.5% in 2008. Unfortunately, his command of the pitch was really bad in 2007 and 50% of it missed the strike zone while being ignored by the hitters. The command improved to 65% strikes in 2008. Interestingly, the average velocity of the changeup increased by a bit more than 1 mph last season, but don't ask me what it means. McCarthy said he is mainly a fastball-changeup guy, and those two pitches do indeed appear to be his better pitches. In 2007, his fastball wasn't bad, but he didn't have much command on either of his breaking pitches. In 2008 on the other hand, his breaking pitches seemed to be better, but his fastball wasn't quite as good.
After seeing the data, I guess I am a bit less upset and flummoxed about his sudden change of heart and repertoire - given how bland his curveball appears to be. I don't know if the slider will turn out any better, but it can't be too much worse than the curveball even if it's just a placebo pitch.
Quickly, somebody teach him a cutter.
18 comments
|
5 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
x
Quickly, somebody teach him a cutter
I thought thats one of the reasons they traded him was because he didn’t what to lean the cutter?
"It doesn't look like he's trying. It kinda pisses me off," "He could throw 110 if he tried. The way it explodes out of his hand is really something special." ~ B-Mac on Feliz.
maybe the last two years has convinced him
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
Yeah. It sounds like the cutter is taught in Chicago when a pitcher doesn't have a 3rd pitch.
Reading between the lines, I think the White Sox’s desire for him to learn the cutter pretty much indicates they really believed his curveball was not ML quality. His resistance to learning it may have been critical in their willingness to deal him, and it seems rightfully so. We all know a ML starter needs three pitches. It’s just that McCarthy didn’t understand he didn’t have three ML pitches. Call ego or being young, but it appears he now understands the limitations (and the potential damage?) of his curveball.
Danks’ willingness to learn, which is something MJH screamed about, seems to have translated well to the White Sox’s system of teaching a cutter as a 3rd pitch. Cutters and sliders appear to be kinfolk in the world of pitching grips. It is a bit ironic to see McCarthy come around to learning a slider, and may speak to the importance of the ability of organizations to gauge the mentality of their pitchers as much as their stuff.
JD: Adamant about 78 wins in 2009. Go Rangers!
In 2007
People swung at the curveball 35% of the time, and when they did not swing, it was a 2.5/1 ball/called strike ratio. Just for giggles, they swing at the fastball 47% of the time, and at the changeup 43% of the time. When not swung at, the fastball had a 2.17/a ball/called strike ratio, the changeup had a 7.7/1 ball/called strike ratio
in 2008, curveball was swung at 38% of the time, otherwise with 1.85/1 ball/called strike ratio, the changeup is swung at 50% of the time, and non-swingers had 2.4/1 ball/called strike ratio.
foul balls are not counted as swinging strikes, only swing and misses
Foul Percentages
in 2007
FB – 21.3%
Curve – 14.0%
Change – 11.2%
In 2008
Curve – 11.3%
Change – 17.7%
————————————————
Percentages of pitches put in play (when swung at)
in 2007
FB – 39.6%
Curve – 46.0%
Change – 39.2%
in 2008
Curve – 62.5%
Change – 35.5%
————————————————————————
Not sure if I can make any conclusions based on foul percentages, but it looks like the curve gets put into play more often when swung at than the other pitches
Thanks for digging the numbers up.
Swinging strikes (fouls and misses):
2007 CH: 15.0 + 11.2 = 26.2% (vs 39.2% in play)
2008 CH: 17.7 + 14.5 = 32.2% (vs 35.5% in play)
2007 CU: 5.0 + 14.0 = 19.0% (vs 46.0% in play)
2008 CU: 3.0 + 11.3 = 14.3% (vs 62.5% in play)
2007 FB: 7.0 + 21.3 = 28.3% (vs 39.6% in play)
2008 FB: ? + ? (vs ?? in play)
The numbers here seem to suggest that his change up is excellent, his curveball sucks, his fastball is average. Of course, these numbers don’t represent quality of contact when put in play. You wanna pull the line drive rates for each pitch? Can that even be done?
TRADE FOR BUERLE!
I have fulfilled all my prophecies; all my predictions are up to date.
My train is right on schedule.
by oc on Mar 2, 2009 4:07 PM CST up reply actions
No! Begin a savings account to pay for Danks.
Every month set aside $1M; Every half year, set aside 1 prospect. After the 2010 season, trade for Danks.
JD: Adamant about 78 wins in 2009. Go Rangers!
FWIW
Here’s the article I wrote this morning on McCarthy that Telegraph kindly alluded to…I’ve since embedded a video from McCarthy’s last start of the 2007 season that showcases an example of his plus curve:
http://www.bbtia.com/home/2009/3/2/brandon-mccarthy-the-mysterious-disappearing-curveball.html
Odd stuff.
Sorry
I meant to link to it, but I got in a hurry and forgot.
Here, I will make it up to you by linking it
The 74 mph curve thrown for a double-play.
I have fulfilled all my prophecies; all my predictions are up to date.
My train is right on schedule.
by oc on Mar 2, 2009 4:59 PM CST up reply actions
At least he's modeling one of our new unis, black shoes and all.
I have fulfilled all my prophecies; all my predictions are up to date.
My train is right on schedule.
by oc on Mar 2, 2009 6:03 PM CST up reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
