New Jean-Jacques Taylor Rangers column

by Adam J. Morris on Mar 23, 2009 12:04 PM CDT

Jean-Jacques Taylor has a column about the Rangers up.

A one-sentence summary: Millwood and Padilla will be great in '09, because it is their contract years.

I had thought that the whole "players perform better in their contract years" myth had been de-bunked, but apparently not.

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And, what's worse

is that both are likely to be better this year because they’ll be healthier, have a better defense behind them, etc. The myth will thus be “proved” with another anecdote.

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by t ball on Mar 23, 2009 12:12 PM CDT reply actions

SABR

Hasn’t there actually been some sabremetric proof that players do play a little better in their contract years?

I vaguely recall reading this a few times??? Granted it’s not a big boost, but I thought there was shown to be some correlation.

by gr7070 on Mar 23, 2009 1:51 PM CDT up reply actions

actually. I think the idea that players would suddenly be more motivated or able to play better is silly. These are incredibly competitive men, who had to work their asses off to be as good as they are and make it to the big leagues in the first place. The idea that they are somehow only doing their best in contract years is baffling to me. If they have one good year out of a four year contract it hurts their value, it doesn’t help it. And they all want to win. There is no data and even less logic to back this idea, it’s all anecdotal.

If someone can find me a solid study proving my wrong I’ll be glad to read it and change my mind.

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by t ball on Mar 23, 2009 2:38 PM CDT up reply actions

>>>I think the idea that players would suddenly be more motivated or able to play better is silly<<<

I think it’s silly, too. However I vaguely recall reading this more than once.

by gr7070 on Mar 23, 2009 4:37 PM CDT up reply actions

I love replying to myself ;-)

In fact here’s one thing I read, but I belive I’ve read it multiple times in the last couple years.

http://proxy.espn.go.com/chat/chatESPN?event_id=14877

Neyer: I just read a study last week, suggesting that marquee pitchers do perform better in that last year of a contract . . . but not a lot better. This effect has, I suspect, been significantly overblown.

by gr7070 on Mar 23, 2009 4:40 PM CDT up reply actions

I'm not at all surprised

that there is a very slight tendency towards career years, but it is nothing overwhelming. Thats about the impact I would suspect.

I would have been surprised to see no correlation or negative correlation.

Get off my lawn.

by DJCahill on Mar 24, 2009 9:38 AM CDT up reply actions

I’ve seen mention of it a few times over the years, and I’m sure it wasn’t just in relationship to marquee pitchers as well.

It’s never been a strong relationship, but the little I see on it suggests it exists.

Which is contrary to most people who are on the SABR side seem to believe, but not exactly involved in SABR themselves.

by gr7070 on Mar 24, 2009 3:24 PM CDT up reply actions

I think

You’re right. I remember reading this somewhere. But it was correllation, not causation. That is, there is a trend whereby players perform better (al;beit slightly) in contract years compared to the year after the contract is signed. However, to go so far as to say that players are playing harder or better because they want a new contract is pure speculation.

I’ll have to look around to find where this study was…

Purgatory's kind of like the in-betweeny one. You weren't really shit, but you weren't all that great either. Like Tottenham.

by TheJeezus on Mar 23, 2009 3:48 PM CDT up reply actions

Didn't

Bradley say he sat out some games so he wouldn’t play injured, and hurt his stats? I could have sworn he did.

Also, I don’t really believe players dog it more during games during non-contract seasons, but it does seem like players look pudgier in spring trainings after contracts were signed than in contract year offseasons.

Definitely Millwood looks in better shape than last 2 years.

Get off my lawn.

by DJCahill on Mar 23, 2009 4:02 PM CDT up reply actions

Concur

Yes Bradley did say that. I have a hard time believing you aren’t just giving that little bit extra when millions are on the line or as in Bradley’s games cherry picking which games/pitchers you want to play to keep the stats looking rosy.

With Millwood it’s quite evident he has that on his mind. He’s in the best shape of his life all of a sudden after showing up slovenly the last two years with pitching to mirror that. He knows millions are at stake and he got his act together. Both Evan Grant and MJH have made commentary that reflects exactly that.

I’m not saying that is the case with every contract year player. Some players like a David Eckstein have such an incredible work ethic they come to play regardless of what year they are in the contract and I believe that goes for most MLB players. The same with Padilla. He’s never been chastised for his work ethic. But as far as making a blanket statement that every major leaguer is going to do better because it’s a contract year, I’m not buying. The fact that Milly and Padilla did quite well their last contract year makes one wonder if that’s the case with the two of them. It they both do much better this year than last that will only bolster that case.

What's the Nef tally??

by BigGuns on Mar 23, 2009 4:26 PM CDT up reply actions

Yeah, I definitely agree

there are players who come to play every year and there isn’t a contract year.

However, there definitely appear to be some players who hit it harder when there is money on the line. It is entirely rational to crank it up in contract years. GMJ is Exhibit 1 that one big year can lead to a big contract.

Get off my lawn.

by DJCahill on Mar 23, 2009 4:30 PM CDT up reply actions

I respectfully decline

to click on any link that takes me to a JJT column. Thank you though.

by CS3 on Mar 23, 2009 12:12 PM CDT reply actions 3 recs

+1MM

I couldn’t agree more.

Keith Law on Greg Golson, "He's similiar to Cameron and Hunter in that all three are black."

by boomer1 on Mar 23, 2009 12:20 PM CDT up reply actions

+1

baseball is ughhh not his thing buddy

by blueballlefty on Mar 23, 2009 12:28 PM CDT up reply actions

English is not his thing.

When I see a solar eclipse I think "oh no, is the moon eating the sun"

by Pocket Ninja on Mar 23, 2009 1:40 PM CDT up reply actions

+3

She was a grand old lady...

by LSJ on Mar 23, 2009 7:34 PM CDT up reply actions

Adam don't you know that.....

Noone obsesses over Jean-Jacques Taylor!

What's the Nef tally??

by BigGuns on Mar 23, 2009 12:28 PM CDT reply actions 2 recs

Seasoning

I love that term. In his article he mentions that next year Elvis Andrus and Chris Davis will have more “seasoning”

For some reason that seems to me like they will have been the butt of that many more hot foots or spicy peppers stuffed into their jockstraps….

Why not just let them get some extra “seasoning” in the first part of this year, so that we can content. :)

by iblum on Mar 23, 2009 12:44 PM CDT reply actions

This yet another example

of how stupid newspapers are. Instead of putting their money into beat reporters, they waste money on columnists who are lazy, uninformed, jerks or all of the above. I have no sympathy for the newspaper industry. If they are this stupid they deserve to go the way of the dinosauers

by BEW on Mar 23, 2009 12:53 PM CDT reply actions

Columnist

I can’t tell you the last time I’ve picked up a paper to read a columnist’s opinion about a sports (or any other news) item. The only time I go to the paper is to get a factual picture of an event (box score, recap, eye witness account, etc.). Nobody cares about the byline.

by Jack Nicholson 1974 on Mar 23, 2009 2:26 PM CDT up reply actions

That Posnanski fella is pretty interesting.

by brettgardner on Mar 23, 2009 2:39 PM CDT up reply actions

No, it's not debunked, it's totally bunk.

The 40 Trumps All!!!

I love you, Marcus Lemon.

"I don’t have any respect for anybody on here. Everyone on here is a fucking asshole who thinks they’re god compared to everyone else." -iorange555, throwing one of his patented sandy-vagina'd hissy fits.

by thedirkatron on Mar 23, 2009 2:44 PM CDT reply actions

I think you'll find some players

who might disagree. Like CJs story of GMJ saying KaChing after he got back from a HR in his contract year.

Get off my lawn.

by DJCahill on Mar 23, 2009 3:16 PM CDT up reply actions

That's a nice anecdote,

but it hardly proves that GMJ wasn’t trying to hit HRs other years.

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by t ball on Mar 23, 2009 8:28 PM CDT up reply actions

Was Millwood trying as hard

in other years when he showed up 20 pounds overweight?

Get off my lawn.

by DJCahill on Mar 23, 2009 9:03 PM CDT up reply actions

You're right

I’m sure he didn’t care at all how he pitched, he enjoyed sucking.

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by t ball on Mar 23, 2009 11:18 PM CDT up reply actions

I

am sure he cared and is extremely competitive, but do you think he put in as much time the following offseasons after he landed his “set for life” contract as he did the offseason before his year with Cleveland?

If you had 48 million dollars coming your way you don’t think that would hurt your ambition just a little bit?

by phina on Mar 24, 2009 3:38 AM CDT up reply actions

With Millwood

I think he didn’t really have to do anything special when he was younger and he assumed it would always be that way. As he aged it become more obvious that he wasn’t doing anything special and he has adjusted. I doubt he woke up one day and said “holy shit, I need to suddenly care about my pitching, I have a vesting option!”

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by t ball on Mar 24, 2009 1:02 PM CDT up reply actions

I don't think he cared enough

to put down the beers and workout in the offseason.

Get off my lawn.

by DJCahill on Mar 24, 2009 10:15 AM CDT up reply actions

yeh that..

and as time went on the fervor intensified. The repeated Evan Grant mentions of him not being in shape.and the “I want to take things at my own pace spring training regimen” caught up to him like the hitters have caught up to his fastball that’s lost 6 mph. Nolan the king of training discipline entering the picture was the straw that broke the camels back.

Josh Hamilton puts his pants on one leg at a time just like you.But once he gets his pants on he hits baseballs 420 feet.

by BigGuns on Mar 24, 2009 1:54 PM CDT up reply actions

I think

the fact that he might be on the market next year weighed about as heavy as Nolan’s talk.

I have no doubt he is supermotivated to get 180 IP this year.

"The idea that the Rangers are going to be a solid contender for a number of years is a fantasy." - Adam J. Morris

by DJCahill on Mar 24, 2009 1:58 PM CDT up reply actions

concur

I’d say that is the overriding factor. Yeh he’ll get those 180 if he has to pitch the last 20 with his left arm.

Josh Hamilton puts his pants on one leg at a time just like you.But once he gets his pants on he hits baseballs 420 feet.

by BigGuns on Mar 24, 2009 2:01 PM CDT up reply actions

I agree he is motivated by the contract somewhat

but the improvements in defense and health will have much more to do with him pitching more innings than any contract year voodoo.

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by t ball on Mar 24, 2009 2:10 PM CDT up reply actions

I think thats what I'm saying

contract motivations push him to work harder in the offseason, which results in a performance gain during the season.

It’s real easy to blow off your workout and have another beer during the offseason. The thought of a contract helps you focus on the importance of offseason work.

"The idea that the Rangers are going to be a solid contender for a number of years is a fantasy." - Adam J. Morris

by DJCahill on Mar 24, 2009 2:29 PM CDT up reply actions

+ 1

Josh Hamilton puts his pants on one leg at a time just like you.But once he gets his pants on he hits baseballs 420 feet.

by BigGuns on Mar 24, 2009 2:35 PM CDT up reply actions

Yes, and that's pretty much how I feel, too.

My posts here have probably been a bit exaggerated for effect. I feel that some just think “oh, this player will have a better year because it’s a contract year” as if it’s something you can count on. Players can’t suddenly become something they’re not already, especially in their early to mid-30s. They might stem their decline a little if everything goes just right. Milly and Padilla are likely to benefit from better defense and health and thus perpetuate the myth.

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by t ball on Mar 24, 2009 2:53 PM CDT up reply actions

I was just making a Seinfeld reference.

I think the contract year is severely overrated.

You might find the odd player who really tries harder in a contract year, but most of the time it’s a pretty silly idea, imo.

The 40 Trumps All!!!

I love you, Marcus Lemon.

by thedirkatron on Mar 23, 2009 11:00 PM CDT up reply actions

Speaking of self justifying tools

take a look at Buster Olney trying to justify not voting for Blyleven for Hall, but voting for Schilling on Baseball Tonight.

by FirebatM3 on Mar 23, 2009 3:37 PM CDT reply actions

Baseball Tonight

What is that? Is that a baseball show on one of those sports channels that isn’t the MLB Network? I don’t watch those. :)

"I dont care to debate with a troll." - Sharky

by RCCook on Mar 23, 2009 4:42 PM CDT up reply actions

Heyman

talks a bit about Andruw

"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan

by Dirk Diggler on Mar 23, 2009 3:47 PM CDT reply actions

Its JJT thats writing that. Who cares?

my sig is better than yours

by MayurP on Mar 23, 2009 4:43 PM CDT reply actions

What did you expect from jumping jacks?

by Telegraph on Mar 23, 2009 5:26 PM CDT reply actions

The notion that a contract year will automatically make a player play better is wrong

But there are still players that are influenced by it. It depends on the player.

By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw

by Gdawg on Mar 23, 2009 5:45 PM CDT reply actions

Please elaborate

I'm Matt mutha-effing Bush, bitches, and mutha-eff East County.

"I'm as passionate and knowlegeable as any fan out there." Josey Wales

by Brian Thomas on Mar 23, 2009 5:47 PM CDT up reply actions

Seems obvious what he is saying.

The 750 MLB players aren’t a monolithic group, and some crank it up for contract years, and some crank it up every year.

Get off my lawn.

by DJCahill on Mar 23, 2009 6:34 PM CDT up reply actions

X

It’s much more likely that a player ramps it up for a year following a bad one in their perspective.

by Andy Seiler on Mar 24, 2009 12:11 AM CDT up reply actions

Yep

Some players always try their hardest to stay in shape and get better in the offseasons. Some only do it when they see the money incentive. And its not just staying in shape. There are a lot of stubborn players out there that don’t listen to what the coaches say to do and only lose their stubbornness right before a contract year.

By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw

by Gdawg on Mar 24, 2009 10:13 AM CDT up reply actions