Wednesday a.m. stuff
by Adam J. Morris on Mar 25, 2009 9:34 AM CDT
Email
PrintAbout two weeks of camp left, and I, personally, am ready for spring training to be over and the season to start.
Brandon McCarthy says he wasn't sharp yesterday, and it showed, as he gave up 6 runs on a bunch of doubles, and struggled to stay ahead of hitters.
Evan Grant's notes this morning include some comments from a scout about McCarthy, discussions about the catching situation, and speculation that Josh Rupe and Luis Mendoza could both find their 40 man roster spot in jeopardy later this spring.
Anthony Andro also has notes up, including some comments from Chris Davis where he says he feels he's getting comfortable at the plate and getting out of his slump.
Jeff Wilson has a piece up on Ian Kinsler, talking about his 2008 season that could have been an MVP season, if he'd stayed healthy.
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Kinsler
Jeff Wilson has a piece up on Ian Kinsler, talking about his 2009 season that could have been an MVP season, if he’d stayed healthy.
Is that supposed to read 2008 season?
"It takes a big dog to weigh 1000 pounds"
Rupe
With Rupe out of options his 40 spot is very much in jeopardy. I think theres a few people who would lose a 40 spot over Mendoza however.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
hopefully mendoza would lose it before rupe
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Mar 25, 2009 11:25 AM CDT up reply actions
Hopefully not
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
its not like mendoza is edwin jackson here
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Mar 25, 2009 11:16 PM CDT up reply actions
His sinker
When he can command it, is a very good pitch. I am willing to give him a couple years in the minos to try and get that command because that could be a very nice bullpen piece going forward for us.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Would any of you be upset...
if Josh Rupe or Luis Mendoza lost their 40 man roster spot to Andruw Jones?
I know Mendoza is supposed to have very good stuff yet he just struggles to put it together start after start. He sure did get knocked around a lot last year but I understand he showed some flashes of brilliance.
Rupe on the other hand kind of bores me. He seems like an easily replaceable bullpen innings eater.
I’d probably be more upset if Mendoza was cut over Rupe.
"It takes a big dog to weigh 1000 pounds"
Well
Rupe is out of options, so if he doesn’t make the team out of spring training, he’s off the 40 man, although I think there’s about a 50/50 shot he clears waivers.
Mendoza has a couple of options remaining, and I think he’s worth holding onto to see if he can get some consistency in his command going in AAA.
by Adam J. Morris on Mar 25, 2009 9:46 AM CDT up reply actions
Metcalf
looks like an obvious candidate to be waived. Do you think they might dump Rupe first due to MY’s quad?
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
I think Duran would be a more viable option
if MY can’t go and you need to cut someone off the 40 Metcalf looks like that option. IMO
Keith Law on Greg Golson, "He's similiar to Cameron and Hunter in that all three are black."
but the problem is
we need someone who can back up Young this year. Duran should not touch the majors this year. He looks so overwhelmed at the plate it is ridiculous. I am in the camp that is very skeptical that Duran will ever contribute much to a major league team, but if he does, he needs a whole year in AAA to catch back up to the level and regain some confidence. He doesn’t play good enough defense to be an all glove utility guy.
I would much rather have Metcalf around to play 3B this year, but I really don’t like either player long term.
So do you want Metcalf on the 25 then?
Keith Law on Greg Golson, "He's similiar to Cameron and Hunter in that all three are black."
no
i think we probably go with a guy like vizquel or arias (if the arm is there) to backup 2B and SS and then allow Blalock to back up 3B on occasion. If Young goes down with a serious injury, Metcalf should get the call to play over a prolonged stretch. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Metcalf slide through waivers, however. I think there are probably a few guys at the end of our 40 who we could slide through.
Fair enough
Keith Law on Greg Golson, "He's similiar to Cameron and Hunter in that all three are black."
I'd rather have Metcalf off the 40 permanently.
He’s not good. Duran’s a clearly superior player.
by Andy Seiler on Mar 25, 2009 10:18 AM CDT up reply actions
Yes.
"My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is,
‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all.
So I’m not going to say anything at all.
Is my mother the greatest or what?"
- Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, after signing Ichiro to a $90 million contract
Yes
Mendoza still has options left which makes him way down on the list of guys I want to see lose a 40 spot for anyone much less Andruw Jones. His sinker has flashes of dominance albeit brief flashes. But if we can we should keep him around for another year or two and see if he harnesses it and develops into a nice bullpen piece.
Plus I don’t want to see another Galarraga type situation even though I realize how lucky he was last year it drove me crazy reading everyone bitch about losing him every 5 days after he went out and had a decent start.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
From Rob Neyer
• What’s to become of Kevin Millwood? Adam Morris reminds us just how far we’ve come with these questions.
Little more context?
"[Font} doesn't turn 19 until the end of May and his heater can already hit 99 on the gun. That's baseball porn." - Jason Parks
by hightowersmith on Mar 25, 2009 9:49 AM CDT up reply actions
You have to put the link
in the body of your post for it to work
Keith Law on Greg Golson, "He's similiar to Cameron and Hunter in that all three are black."
Need your help...
Grant has this to say about Rupe:
He has some of the best stuff on the staff, which pretty much speaks for itself.
but then he says this as well:
One of Rupe’s issues is the lack of a changeup. His breaking ball is inconsistent, so that if he doesn’t have good fastball command on a particular day, he’s basically weaponless.
so what does Rupe have that makes his stuff some of the best on the staff?
Eckstenian Grit
Rock Flag & Eagle Radio: Thursdays 10 PM - 1 AM on FM 88.7 The Choice
"Computers can’t measure the size of a man’s heart."
- Hawk Harrelson, MLB Guru/Analyst
Fastball movement and sink, I believe
by Adam J. Morris on Mar 25, 2009 10:12 AM CDT up reply actions
And a pretty good slider?
"My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is,
‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all.
So I’m not going to say anything at all.
Is my mother the greatest or what?"
- Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, after signing Ichiro to a $90 million contract
so his plus stuff
is really just one pitch, a fastball, with good movement and sink, although he sometimes fails to control it and can’t supplement it with any other consistently effective pitches…
Does that mean Mendoza also has plus stuff?
I don't know
I’m not one who raves about his stuff, though
by Adam J. Morris on Mar 25, 2009 11:08 AM CDT up reply actions
Without looking it up
wasn’t Rupe pretty good in a relative sense thru July 1 until he was overworked?
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
by Josey Wales on Mar 25, 2009 10:51 AM CDT up reply actions
I think Rupe was abused last year
and is still feeling the effects. I really do hope he can turn it around in his next few appearances, but if he can’t, he probably slides through waivers at the end of ST because of his lack of options and overall lack of results in his big league career, and in spite of his “plus stuff”. I doubt any team is willing to leave him on their 25 all year.
Rupe had a 4.25 ERA
in the first half of last year (53 IPs).
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
by Josey Wales on Mar 25, 2009 11:05 AM CDT up reply actions
era
Josh’s era bottomed out at 3.43 in his 40th appearance. His last 4 outings really killed his era. It jumped from 4.50 to 5.14. And, it should be noted that era alone should not be used to judge relievers.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/gl.cgi?n1=rupejo01&t=p&year=2008
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
even then
his WHIP wasn’t too impressive, and in my mind, for a pitcher with a weak K rate like Rupe, the WHIP is what really matters. I honestly think he can probably lumped in with Loe and Littleton in a group of groundball inducing AAAA guys, and I doubt it will be that hard to slide him through waivers.
WHIP is a better tool to evaluate pitchers than ERA
and by that barometer alone, Dustin Nippert (1.80 WHIP) should get the F out of Dodge.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
by Josey Wales on Mar 25, 2009 11:25 AM CDT up reply actions
How many pitchers stay in The Show with a WHIP
above 2.00 as opposed to pitchers who have an ERA above 5?
The pitcher with a WHIP above 2 absolutely sucks but you can live a pitcher who has an ERA above 5 (and sometimes pay them $ 12 million – see Kevin Millwood).
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
by Josey Wales on Mar 25, 2009 12:24 PM CDT up reply actions
Huh?
I don’t understand why you are equating a 2.00 WHIP to a 5.00 ERA.
by Adam J. Morris on Mar 25, 2009 3:11 PM CDT up reply actions
Who is going to be the better pitcher over 150 IPs?
The pitcher with the 5.00 ERA or the 2.00 WHIP?
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
Who's going to be more successful in life?
The guy with the brown hat or the guy with the blue suit?
by brettgardner on Mar 25, 2009 3:23 PM CDT up reply actions
The guy with the blue suit.
"The idea that the Rangers are going to be a solid contender for a number of years is a fantasy." - Adam J. Morris
Shit.
I didn’t think anyone would get it right.
by brettgardner on Mar 25, 2009 3:26 PM CDT up reply actions
two things i like about Nippert
1. He is a better option than Rupe or anyone else projected to possibly make our opening day 25 to make an occasional swing start, or to go 4-5 innings when needed.
2. Because he is more of a strikeout pitcher, he can get away with a slightly higher WHIP. But not a WHIP of 1.80. I am anxious to see Nippert get back into spring games. He is preparing as a reliever for the first time in his career and has looked good so far.
How to judge a reliever?
The job of a reliever is to not allow runs to score when they enter a game. The run may be an earned run credited to them or an inherited runner that goes on the previous pitcher’s ledger. Rupe gave up a run (earned or inherited) in 61% of his 46 relief appearances. It is 71% for Nippert. For Frankie it was 31% and 24% for Guardado. My general rule of thumb is that middel/long releivers should be <50, 7-8 inning pitchers <30 and closers <20%. Is there at stat out there that gives a relievers era using ER and IS?
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
with Nippert
he was expected to go more than one inning in many or his relief appearances, so I am not sure if your metric is as valid for him. Also, Guardardo and Frankie often started their innings, so they had fewer inherited runners to worry about.
I agree
Franklyn German was run out of town last despite his 2.08 era. But the problem was that in 5 of 8 appearances he allowed inherited runners to score. Overall he allowed a runner to score in 47% of his appearances.
SPs are easier to judge because they have a common starting point. With reouvers, you need to understand there role a bit in order to judge them.
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
i thought german was released
because his bb/9 was 5.4
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Mar 25, 2009 11:17 PM CDT up reply actions
CJ Wilson has a 0.00 ERA in spring training
this seems to be getting lost in the fray since it is hard for Evan Grant to spin it into a dig on him.
Dirk?
I'm Matt mutha-effing Bush, bitches, and mutha-eff East County.
"I'm as passionate and knowlegeable as any fan out there." Josey Wales
by Brian Thomas on Mar 25, 2009 10:34 AM CDT up reply actions
RIF
Bullpen lefty update: LHP C.J. Wilson has put any to rest any fears about a short spring hampering his start to the season with a couple of powerful performances. Wilson is throwing more fastballs and he has an overpowering fastball. If he sticks with that and doesn’t try to get too cute or too experimental, he might just be the answer to a lot of prayers about the bullpen.
Yep, totally knee deep in fraysville.
I'm Matt mutha-effing Bush, bitches, and mutha-eff East County.
"I'm as passionate and knowlegeable as any fan out there." Josey Wales
by Brian Thomas on Mar 25, 2009 10:38 AM CDT up reply actions
Or maybe your idea
that Grant somehow didn’t like Wilson and was biased in his reporting on him was wrong.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
Rob Neyer linked to Adam's piece on Millwood:
"It doesn't look like he's trying. It kinda pisses me off," "He could throw 110 if he tried. The way it explodes out of his hand is really something special." ~ B-Mac on Feliz.
Meh...
I think people are down on Rupe a little too much. He hasn’t looked good so far this spring, but does that matter more than how he looked the first half of the season or so last year? I still think he could be a viable piece in the ’pen. Certainly better than Eyre or Mendoza imo.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
McCarthy's fastball is straight
From Josh Kalk’s pitch f/x tool, 2007 data
probably why he gets alot of flyballs/popouts
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Chris Young's fastball is straight too
2008 data from Josh Kalk’s f/x tool
But but but
Hes sooooooooo good and hes from Dallas
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
I sometimes think Showalter was right about Young
just not to the degree he thought he was.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
Like the way you put that…
"[Font} doesn't turn 19 until the end of May and his heater can already hit 99 on the gun. That's baseball porn." - Jason Parks
by hightowersmith on Mar 25, 2009 1:47 PM CDT up reply actions
looks like
my dog straining to take a crap and he blows out his eyeballs.
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
meant as a reply to Telegraph's first plot.
(Where did I place the LSB user manual?)
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
In all fairness
He has increased the average horizontal movement of the fastball by about 1.5 inches in 2008. Vertical movement hasn’t really changed
he must have responded to one of those spam mails...
promising to add inches…
IMO, nobody’s more aware of how straight his FB is than BMac. He throws his FB at 3 targets – knee high on the black-in or out, and chin-high. If you ever see his FB out over the plate between the knees and the chin then he has missed horribly. This kinda command is hard to hone when you’re constantly hurt, but I think he can do it well enough if he can just answer the bell every 5 days for looong stretches.
MJH post-mortem
http://insidecorner.dmagazine.com/index.php/2009/03/25/farm-futures-back-from-surprise/
You know it’ll be good.
"[Font} doesn't turn 19 until the end of May and his heater can already hit 99 on the gun. That's baseball porn." - Jason Parks
Ah, crap.
Former Rangers pitching coach Mark Connor, who was re-hired as a minor league instructor, is much more of a presence in minor league camp than I thought he’d be. He appears to be very involved mentally and he’s very hands-on in his teaching.
As with most things here
the hysteria about Connor is vastly overstated. I’m glad he’s no longer the pitching coach, but it’s not like he knows nothing about pitching.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
Kinda like Ghost of Erik Thompson's posts
I’m looking forward to the first post summarizing protracted LSB hangups.
"[Font} doesn't turn 19 until the end of May and his heater can already hit 99 on the gun. That's baseball porn." - Jason Parks
by hightowersmith on Mar 25, 2009 2:35 PM CDT up reply actions
I don't feel like I'm seccumbing to hysteria...
…but if it were up to me, I’d just as soon have Connor be an advisor and less handsey with our prospects. Hearing the exact opposite does not sit well with me whatsoever. I don’t think that is a completely unrealistic or hysterical attitude to have.
Excerpts from today's MLBTR Chat
[Comment From DerekSTheRed]
Can the Rangers trade Catalanotto at all? If so, how much salary are they going to have to eat to get anything back useful?
2:02 Price of a good bench guy being a million or so, I’d say they’d have to eat $5MM. And still wouldn’t get back anything useful.
The Rangers are suppose to subract $20 million from the payroll next year…good thing?
2:20 Why not? There’s no reason to bring Blalock, Catalanotto, or Padilla back. So that probably covers the payroll diff. I think it’s much ado about nothing, as teams get younger they get cheaper and that’s not a negative.
[Comment From Texas Rangers Fan]
What can we legitimately expect from Nelson Cruz this year in terms of numbers??
2:26 An OPS over .800 seems feasible to me.
Am I the player who’s team called the astros to let them know I’m available via trade?
2:37 Doubtful, Blalock as a starting 3B is questionable given health
[Comment From Matt]
Derrick Turnbow; Closer by July. True or False?
2:51 False, Frank Francisco has every advantage over him.
[Comment From Angels fan]
Are the Angels quietly looking for pitching with there once again battered rotation? When is Ervin Santana expected back?
2:54 The laundry list of injuries is a bit scary on paper, but hopefully most of those injuries only result in a few weeks lost. But I can imagine that depth dwindling fast, so I agree that the team should be on the lookout for help.
[Comment From Kevin]
What is the latest on Lackey contract extension?
2:57 He seems unwilling to take a discount. However, today’s injury news hurts his leverage a bit. My guess is that he is headed for the open market.
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
Rangers offer to Hamilton
Didn’t see this anywhere else, but the Rangers have made an offer to Josh Hamilton, who was reportedly “disappointed” in their figure.
I'd prefer they hold off, anyhow.
"My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is,
‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all.
So I’m not going to say anything at all.
Is my mother the greatest or what?"
- Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, after signing Ichiro to a $90 million contract
I don't care a whole lot either way, to be honest.
But I definitely don’t want the team pissing him off.
per TR
MY out, Eddie in for tonights game.
I wouldn’t mind seeing Blalock at 3B tonight.
http://trsullivan.mlblogs.com/
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
Some of our resident Pitching Gurus
are not going to be happy with Jim Callis.
Jonathan (Atlanta): Seems like there is alot of attention on the internet about Strasburg and the “invereted W”. Is it a big deal? If it was such a big deal, why would we not hear more about it from scouts?
Jim Callis: (2:47 PM ET ) I actually wrote a column about this that should be posted on baseballamerica.com today or tomorrow. One internet site came up with the inverted W and a lot of bloggers seem to have run with it. We’ve talked to 10-20 scouts about Strasburg, and none of them is worried about his mechanics. I joked with Keith Law that he didn’t mention the inverted W (isn’t that an M?) in his Strasburg blog on ESPN.com, and Keith’s reply was that it didn’t exist when he saw him. Could Strasburg get hurt? Sure, but that’s true of any pitcher. Scouts don’t think his delivery puts him at risk, and yes, that’s still no guarantee he’ll stay healthy.
Ceterum censeo Cat esse delendam
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