Ranger Roster Crystal-Ballin'
by spurdynasty on Mar 29, 2009 9:58 AM CDT
33 comments
The Rangers window of contention is expected to open in 2010 and should last at least five years assuming there are not widespread problems with player health and/or development. Curious about what the Rangers’ rosters might look like during that span, I built a spreadsheet using player salaries and service times from http://rangers.scottlucas.com (Thanks, Scott) and player ages from http://minormoosings.blogspot.com (Thanks, Goyogringo).
The following assumptions were used to project the Rangers’ future rosters:
(1) Pre-arb salaries were estimated to be $500k.
(2) Arbitration year salaries were estimated based on players’ expected ML production (e.g., Davis/Feliz/Holland received $3M, $5M, and $10M; Teagarden/D Murphy/Kiker received $1.5M, $2.5M, and $4M).
(3) Prospects were expected to advance one level per year and make their major league debuts in the year after they first appeared in AAA.
(4) The starting rotation included 8-12 starters for each season to account for attrition.
(5) Hamilton, Wilson, and Francisco were signed to contracts that extended one year beyond their arbitration years.
(6) No player trades or free agent acquisitions were predicted
Shown below are projected rosters for the 2010, 2012, and 2014 seasons. The ages listed for the players are as of opening day for the indicated year. The benches in 2010 and 2012 have one extra player since I could not decide whether to use Boggs or Murphy as the 4th outfielder. The bullpens have eight pitchers instead of seven to provide some sense of who the first call-up might be.
Line-up 2010 Line-up 2012 Line-up 2014
Player Pos Age Sal (M) Player Pos Age Sal (M) Player Pos Age Sal (M)
Davis 1B/DH 24 $0.5 Davis 1B/DH 26 $3.0 Davis 1B/DH 28 $10
Smoak 1B 22 $0.5 Smoak 1B 24 $0.5 Smoak 1B 26 $7
Kinsler 2B 27 $4.0 Kinsler 2B 29 $7.0 Lemon 2B 25 $1.5
Young 3B 33 $11 Young 3B 35 $12 Duran 3B 29 $2.5
Andrus SS 21 $0.5 Andrus SS 23 $2.0 Andrus SS 25 $7.0
Salt… C 24 $0.5 Salt… C 26 $4.0 Tea C 30 $4.0
Borbon OF 24 $0.5 Borbon OF 26 $0.5 Beltre OF 24 $0.5
Cruz OF 29 $0.5 Cruz OF 31 $4.0 Boggs OF 31 $4.0
Hamilton OF 28 $6.0 Hamilton OF 30 $9.0 Borbon OF 28 $4.0
Bench 2010 Bench 2012 Bench 2014
Tea C 26 $0.5 Tea C 28 $1.5 Pina C 26 $1.5
Ramirez C/DH 25 $0.5 Ramirez C/DH 27 $0.5 Ramirez C/DH 29 $2.5
Boggs OF 27 $0.5 Boggs OF 29 $1.5 Golson OF 28 $2.0
Murphy OF 28 $0.5 Murphy OF 30 $2.5 Vallejo UIF 27 $2.0
Duran UIF 25 $0.5 Vallejo UIF 25 $0.5
Rotation 2010 Rotation 2012 Rotation 2014
Mill/Pad #1 35/32 $12 Holland #1 25 $0.5 Feliz #1 25 $5.0
McCarthy #2 26 $2.5 Feliz #2 23 $0.5 Holland #2 27 $5.0
Harrison #3 24 $0.5 Harrison #3 26 $1.5 Main #3 25 $3.0
Holland #4 23 $0.5 Hurley #4 26 $1.5 Harrison #4 28 $4.0
Feldman #5 27 $1.0 Feldman #5 29 $3.0 Perez #5 23 $0.5
Feliz #6 21 $0.5 Main #6 23 $0.5 Hurley #6 28 $3.0
Hurley #7 24 $0.5 Diamond #7 29 $0.5 Beavan #7 25 $0.5
Diamond #8 27 $0.5 Poveda #8 24 $0.5 Poveda #8 26 $1.5
Beavan #9 23 $0.5 Boscan #9 24 $0.5
Boscan #10 22 debut Font #10 23 $0.5
Ramirez #11 24 $0.5
Ross #12 24 $0.5
Bullpen 2010 Bullpen 2012 Bullpen 2014
Francisco Cl 30 $4.0 Francisco Cl 32 $7.0 Madrigal Cl 30 $4.0
Wilson LH 29 $3.0 Hunter RH 25 $0.5 Diamond RH 31 $2.5
Eyre RH 31 $1.0 Kiker LH 24 $0.5 Hunter RH 27 $2.5
Hunter RH 23 $0.5 Madrigal RH 28 $1.5 Kiker LH 26 $1.5
Madrigal RH 26 $0.5 Moscoso RH 28 $0.5 Moscoso RH 30 $2.5
Moscoso RH 26 $0.5 Nippert RH 31 $2.0 Murphy T LH 26 $1.5
Nippert RH 29 $0.5 Strop RP 26 $0.5 Strop RH 28 $2.5
Rupe RH 26 $1.5 Wilson LH 31 $5.0 Young LH 27 $1.5
Other Roster Candidates Other Roster Candidates Other Roster Candidates
Golson OF 24 $0.5 Moreland 1B 26 $0.5 Moreland 1B 28 $0.5
Arias UIF 25 $0.5 Pina C 24 $0.5 Murphy C 1B 24 $0.5
Vallejo UIF 23 $0.5 Beltre OF 22 debut Bannister RP 30 $1.5
Bannister RP 26 $0.5 Golson OF 26 $1.5 Garr RP 30 $1.5
Gabbard RP 28 $0.5 Arias UIF 27 $1.5 Jones RP 27 $1.5
Garr RP 26 debut Duran UIF 27 $1.5 Mendoza RP 30 $4.0
Jones RP 23 debut Lemon UIF 23 $0.5 Wieland SP 24 $0.5
Kiker RP 22 debut Bannister RP 28 $0.5
Mendoza RP 26 $0.5 Eyre RP 33 $2.0
Moscoso RP 26 $0.5 Gabbard RP 30 $2.5
Murphy T RP 22 debut Garr RP 28 $0.5
Strop RP 24 $0.5 Jones RP 25 $0.5
Young RP 23 debut Mendoza RP 28 $1.5
Main SP 21 debut Rupe RP 28 $2.0
Poveda SP 22 debut Young RP 25 $0.5
Avg Age - 25 man roster
2010 – 26
2011 – 26.1
2012 – 27
2013 – 26.8
2014 – 26.8
Total Projected Salary - 25 man roster
2010 – $54 M
2011 - $56.5 M
2012 - $72 M
2013 - $96 M
2014 - $88 M
2010
The addition of Borbon in centerfield and Smoak at 1B yields a line-up that is projected to remain the same until 2013. Exercising the option of either Millwood or Padilla provides a veteran starter, but the rotation looks to be a weak spot with only eight pitchers projected to be ready for major league duty. Adding a pitcher like Sheets on a one or two year deal would be for the best and there is room in the budget with a projected total salary of $54M. The additions of Moscoso and Hunter and the continuing maturation of Madrigal, Rupe, Wilson, and Francisco could make the bullpen a strength.
2011
This looks to be the first of a three-year run where the Rangers could be among teh most talented teams in baseball. The line-up should be excellent with Hamilton, Davis, Smoak, Cruz, and potentially Ramirez anchoring the 3-7 slots and Kinsler setting the table. Unless a veteran is added to the rotation, the starters will be very young with McCarthy, Feldman, and Diamond being the elder statesmen at the age of 28. Holland and Feliz might be ready to lead the starters. The bullpen should be a strength with Kiker and Strop stepping into prominent roles and Francisco, Wilson, and Madrigal handling the 8th and 9th innings. McCarthy will be in his final year and potentially available in trade. An outfielder or two (Boggs, Murphy, Cruz, Golson) and a catcher (with Pina ready to step in as the backup) could be used in a deal to bring in a key player for a playoff run.
2012
The line-up should be extremely potent with everyone except Young either in or entering their prime. Main and/or Beavan might be ready to join a rotation that could be anchored by Holland, Feliz, and Harrison. With Madrigal, Strop, and Kiker ready to handle late-inning duties and Garr, Jones, and Young ready for the major leagues, Wilson and Francisco, who will both be in the final years of their contracts, might be traded to bring in prospects to re-stock the farm.
2013
With Hamilton, Kinsler, Saltalamacchia, Cruz, and Young in the final years of their contracts, this could be the end of an era in Rangers baseball. Player salaries will approach $100M. Davis, Smoak, Saltalamacchia, Borbon, Andrus, and Ramirez will all be in their mid- to late-20’s. If all goes well, Beltre should be ready to impact the major league team. The rotation should be nearing its apex with Holland, Feliz, Main, Perez, and Harrison in the starting 5 and other talented arms ready to plug in if needed. Francisco and Wilson will have departed but the bullpen will remain a talented group with Madrigal or Strop likely ready to close. Hamilton, Cruz, Saltalamacchia, and Kinsler could either anchor another playoff run or be traded in the final years of their contracts to bring in young talent that could extend the Rangers window of playoff contention.
2014
The line-up will change dramatically with Lemon, Duran, Teagarden, and Beltre taking over for Kinsler, Young, Saltalamacchia, and Hamilton. Player salaries will drop back below $90M providing enough roster flexibility to bring in a big-name free agent or trade acquisition to bolster the line-up if needed. Pitching should be the team’s strength with Feliz, Holland, Main, Perez, Beavan, Harrison, Hurley, Boscan, Font, and Ramirez all aged 23-28 and Madrigal, Hunter, Kiker, Moscoso, Murphy, Strop, Young, and Diamond forming a talented and experienced bullpen.
25 recs |
33 comments
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I only have one thing to say
WOW. good job
by cashman on Mar 29, 2009 10:08 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
spurdynasty =
FanpostDynasty.
You are the epic counterpart of iorange created out of chaos on the opposite end of the LSB poster spectrum.
by SaltyGoesYard on Mar 29, 2009 10:18 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
It's sweet you think of me so much.
Sticks and stones may break my bones but words will never hurt me.
by iorange555 on Mar 29, 2009 6:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bravo! Bravo! Rec-tacular!
It certainly is nice to see it all laid out. I’m kinda not liking 2013 and the “end of an era in Ranger Baseball.” Maybe we can keep Kins.
Josh Hamilton puts his pants on one leg at a time just like you but once he gets his pants on he hits baseballs 420 feet.
by BigGuns on Mar 29, 2009 10:24 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Very nice...
damn does that 2010 lineup get my pants excited.
One question. Curious as to why you have Holland #1 and Feliz #2 in 2012, but you have them switched in 2014? Is that because you think Holland is the more polished pitcher now, but eventually Feliz will pass him? If so, don’t you think Feliz will have reached that point by 2012. Just wondering.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
by slc ranger on Mar 29, 2009 10:25 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Feliz vs Holland
For better or worse, I am heavily biased when it comes to age. It was easier for me to slot the 25 yo Holland as #1 in 2012 than the 23 yo Feliz. For what it is worth, I think that Holland is likely to be the more effective pitcher for Texas (mostly because he is left-handed), but I really like the sounds coming from ST that suggest that Feliz’ secondary pitches are making good progress.
by spurdynasty on Mar 29, 2009 10:39 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
as always
great post!
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Mar 29, 2009 10:36 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Autorec.
Well done.
"...my balls are really like a veiny flesh color" blueballlefty on Jun 4, 2008 7:44 PM EDT
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008
by Rodney on Mar 29, 2009 10:44 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Great post,
but 2013 end of an era comment makes me real sad. Lets hope all of those guys don’t come off the books.
I could see Cruz and Young not being resigned due to age and maybe even Hammy or KIns seeing how they are on the wrong side of 30. However, If Hammy is showing no signs of slowing down come age 31-32, then you sign him for a nice 3-5 year deal. His production in and off the field could become what Young’s is right now. He could easily be that veteran leader we seek.
Salty, still being two years younger should warrant a nice deal, if he is producing results.
Kins, depending on what the market is like for second basemen and how lemon looks could probably get signed for 3-4 years.
The bloggerformelyknownasBigBaddBubbaJ
by NYTXFAN on Mar 29, 2009 10:56 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
It amazes me that Engle Beltre will only be 24 in 2014
by cmkelly29 on Mar 29, 2009 11:15 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
You think that Maximus will still be here till 2014 as a part-time DH?
by hiafex on Mar 29, 2009 11:37 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
MaxRam in 2014?
In the trade-free world that I used for this exercise, MaxRam remained a C/1B/DH through 2014.
Personally, I would like to see Ramirez develop into an ML-quality catcher who can split time with Teagarden and enable the Rangers to trade Saltalamacchia for a pitcher who can be a productive major league starter in 2010.
by spurdynasty on Mar 29, 2009 1:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not so sure
about Davis hitting lead-off, but otherwise, this is a good post.
-- Micah
Baseball Is My Boyfriend
I want to be the next Annie Savoy.
by baseballismyboyfriend on Mar 29, 2009 12:18 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Davis leading off
I used “Line-up” without thinking about it. As you suggest, Davis will not be leading off for the Rangers. I had just sorted the players by position which put the first basemen (Davis and Smoak) at the top of the list.
by spurdynasty on Mar 29, 2009 1:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, ok
That makes more sense! I thought it was a batting order. Silly me.
-- Micah
Baseball Is My Boyfriend
I want to be the next Annie Savoy.
by baseballismyboyfriend on Mar 29, 2009 2:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Its a good thing that all prospects pan out
I’ll be very disappointed in you if our rotation in 2014 is not Feliz/Holland/Main/Harrison/Perez.
It is an interesting exercise just to see who may be coming onto the scene in any given year.
by JBImaknee on Mar 29, 2009 12:49 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Prospects fail?!?
Thanks for bursting my bubble, JB.
The farther out you go, the crazier this exercise gets. Assuming that everyone will remain healthy is foolhardy, but not as much as assuming that every prospect will reach his ceiling. And then layering salaries on top of that? Pure rubbish, I admit.
But the exercise does provide you with a sense of how valuable a strong farm system can be for an organization. The line-ups in this exercise consist primarily of proven, near-proven, and near-ready players so, assuming good health, it seems reasonable to believe that the Rangers are going to score a lot of runs for the next 5 years for less than $30M/year. Similarly, there are a lot of young major league and near-ready minor league pitchers who will give the Rangers a talented and inexpensive bullpen. The biggest question mark is the rotation. The Rangers depth in quality pitching prospects suggests that they will have at least a few average to above average starters who will not cost a lot of money.
And money is the key to all of this. As has been pointed out by people far smarter than me, a GM who has inexpensive options to plug holes in his line-up, rotation, and bullpen is an extremely effective GM because he has room in his budget to acquire free agents and prospects whom he can trade to acquire a player who can fill a crying need.
by spurdynasty on Mar 29, 2009 2:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
i think spursdynasty
should become a co-GM with JD
my sig is better than yours
by hinduplaya on Mar 29, 2009 2:18 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I couldn't have done it without you, Goyo
Thanks for all of the player info that you keep at your site.
by spurdynasty on Mar 29, 2009 2:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well its a neat little exercise I guess but I think a lot of your projections will be way off.
by oc on Mar 29, 2009 8:13 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
And just to qualify... I say that because I think many of these players will be dealt because of logjams, and then a few more will not reach their ceilings, and then obviously you can't discount a big free-agent signing in there or two or three.
There’s just no telling where this thing will be in 2014, but hopefully it will be on the good side of things.
by oc on Mar 30, 2009 1:02 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The exercise is akin to the 1, 3, and 5 year analyses that businesses use to identify future gaps and surpluses so that the can adjust their business plan to account for near- and long-term problems and opportunities. Getting a look at what could potentially happen for the Rangers in the next 5+ years, assuming there are not an unreasonable number of injury and player development issues, makes me feel very optimistic about this team. The starting pitching in 2010 and 2011 will be thin but there is ample room in the budget to add a quality pitcher or two without exceeding $70M in annual salaries. The team could make a long term commitment to a free agent pitcher in 2010 or 2011 but that will likely mean trading an arbitration-eligible player like Hamilton or Saltalamacchia in 2012 if the team wants to remain in the $70-80M salary range. That is the type of domino effect that fans often overlook but that owners and GMs are painfully aware of.
The key to the Rangers bright future is that they control a lot of inexpensive players who have the talent to contribute to a championship-caliber club. As many have pointed out, the team has near-term surpluses in catching and the outfield that can be used in trades to fill gaps in the starting rotation or that result from injuries. If three of Strop, Moscoso, Bannister, Eyre, Jones, Garr, Kiker, and Young prove to be ready for the ML bullpen in the next year or so, then the team could have a surplus of relievers that would allow them to trade an established veteran or two. The two problem areas that become apparent in this exercise are:
(1) the youth of the potential starting rotation from 2011-2014 (avg age of the top 10 candidates for those years is 25-26)
(2) the significant transition in position players that is likely to happen in 2014. The five year gap between now and 2014 provides plenty of time but it would be good for the Rangers to begin now in identifying and developing position players who project to be ready for the big leagues by 2013.
Contrast the Rangers situation with that of the Astros. The Astros have salary commitments to 6 players in 2010 that total $58.5M. They have five more players with 1-5 years of major league experience whose salaries will likely total $4.5M in 2010. They will need to add 14 more players to their 2010 roster via free agency or from among the 1st year players and minor leaguers that they will evaluate in 2009. Assuming they exercise Lance Berkman’s option, the team will have $49.5M committed to three players in 2011 and another $9.5M to spend on the five players who will be eligible for arbitration. By 2012, the team could be Carlos Lee, Hunter Pence, Michael Bourn, JR Towles, and whatever free agents they’ve had to sign to fill out their 2010 and 2011 rosters. In sharp contrast to the Rangers, the Astros have perhaps 10 players in their minor league system who project to be average or above major league players. With very few inexpensive players to plug in or trade, the Astros outlook is absolutely dismal.
by spurdynasty on Mar 30, 2009 9:27 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Feldman
I suppose he could meet your 2010 expectations, but beyond that I doubt he’ll be a rotation consideration. And having Ben Sheets [or his ilk] around for a productive run spanning 2010-2012 sure would solidify the rotation while the young guys grow up.
by shroomer on Mar 30, 2009 11:11 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Nice post
Although we better not be getting rid of a 31 year old Kinsler unless he has serious injury issues. Having veterans isn’t always a bad thing.
Plus I have serious doubts about Lemon ever being anything more than a utility IF at his peak
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Mar 30, 2009 12:44 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Lemon
Thought the same thing. But the exercise can only involve who we got and he’s who we got. If he doesn’t pan out there will be several drafts and FA signings between now and then (or re-signing Kinsler).
Remember Red, hope is a good thing. Maybe the best of things. And no good thing ever dies.
by WyoRanger on Mar 30, 2009 3:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Draft picks
A five year time horizon is plenty of time for a college level draft pick to make it to the majors. You are predicting Smoak to be there within two years. Of course, its impossible to predict if those guys will be pitchers or position players, so you cannot factor them in to your results. But., it does give me even more reason to be optimistic about the future. Perhaps some of those future picks will be the replacements for Kins, Hammy, etc, thus keeping the era of Ranger dominance going beyond 2013.
Excellent work as always,spursdynasty. We’ve missed your posts. Keep them coming.
by NorCalRangersFan on Mar 30, 2009 2:38 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Well Done
Excellent work. I love great data. Thanks.
As Holland shows, predicting the actual future of good prospects is difficult. But, it sure it sure is fun.
by 3Bagger on Apr 1, 2009 1:18 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
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