FanPost

Ranger Roster Crystal-Ballin'

The Rangers window of contention is expected to open in 2010 and should last at least five years assuming there are not widespread problems with player health and/or development.  Curious about what the Rangers’ rosters might look like during that span, I built a spreadsheet using player salaries and service times from http://rangers.scottlucas.com (Thanks, Scott) and player ages from http://minormoosings.blogspot.com (Thanks, Goyogringo). 

The following assumptions were used to project the Rangers’ future rosters:
(1) Pre-arb salaries were estimated to be $500k.
(2) Arbitration year salaries were estimated based on players’ expected ML production (e.g., Davis/Feliz/Holland received $3M, $5M, and $10M; Teagarden/D Murphy/Kiker received $1.5M, $2.5M, and $4M).
(3) Prospects were expected to advance one level per year and make their major league debuts in the year after they first appeared in AAA.
(4) The starting rotation included 8-12 starters for each season to account for attrition.
(5) Hamilton, Wilson, and Francisco were signed to contracts that extended one year beyond their arbitration years.
(6) No player trades or free agent acquisitions were predicted

Shown below are projected rosters for the 2010, 2012, and 2014 seasons.  The ages listed for the players are as of opening day for the indicated year.  The benches in 2010 and 2012 have one extra player since I could not decide whether to use Boggs or Murphy as the 4th outfielder.  The bullpens have eight pitchers instead of seven to provide some sense of who the first call-up might be.

Line-up 2010                           Line-up 2012                              Line-up 2014
Player   Pos   Age   Sal (M)   Player    Pos   Age   Sal (M)    Player   Pos     Age   Sal (M)
Davis  1B/DH   24      $0.5      Davis    1B/DH  26      $3.0       Davis    1B/DH  28    $10
Smoak   1B      22      $0.5      Smoak     1B     24      $0.5       Smoak      1B     26    $7
Kinsler   2B      27      $4.0      Kinsler     2B     29      $7.0       Lemon      2B     25    $1.5
Young    3B      33      $11       Young       3B     35      $12        Duran       3B     29    $2.5
Andrus   SS     21      $0.5      Andrus      SS     23     $2.0        Andrus     SS     25   $7.0
Salt…      C      24      $0.5       Salt…        C      26      $4.0        Tea             C     30   $4.0
Borbon   OF     24      $0.5      Borbon     OF     26      $0.5        Beltre       OF     24   $0.5
Cruz        OF     29      $0.5      Cruz          OF     31      $4.0        Boggs      OF    31    $4.0
Hamilton OF   28      $6.0       Hamilton  OF    30      $9.0        Borbon     OF    28    $4.0 
           
Bench  2010                            Bench  2012                              Bench 2014
Tea          C      26     $0.5        Tea            C       28     $1.5       Pina           C      26     $1.5
Ramirez C/DH 25    $0.5        Ramirez C/DH  27     $0.5       Ramirez C/DH  29     $2.5
Boggs     OF    27     $0.5        Boggs      OF     29     $1.5       Golson     OF     28     $2.0
Murphy    OF    28     $0.5        Murphy     OF     30     $2.5       Vallejo     UIF     27     $2.0
Duran     UIF    25     $0.5        Vallejo     UIF     25    $0.5      
            
Rotation   2010                       Rotation 2012                             Rotation 2014 
Mill/Pad   #1 35/32  $12         Holland    #1      25     $0.5        Feliz         #1      25    $5.0
McCarthy #2    26     $2.5       Feliz          #2       23    $0.5        Holland   #2      27     $5.0
Harrison  #3    24     $0.5       Harrison  #3       26    $1.5        Main         #3      25    $3.0
Holland   #4     23     $0.5       Hurley      #4       26    $1.5        Harrison  #4      28    $4.0
Feldman  #5    27     $1.0       Feldman #5       29    $3.0         Perez       #5      23    $0.5
Feliz          #6    21     $0.5       Main         #6       23    $0.5         Hurley     #6       28   $3.0
Hurley       #7    24     $0.5      Diamond #7       29    $0.5         Beavan    #7      25    $0.5
Diamond #8    27     $0.5       Poveda    #8       24    $0.5         Poveda    #8      26    $1.5
                                                   Beavan    #9       23     $0.5         Boscan   #9      24    $0.5
                                                   Boscan   #10     22    debut        Font       #10      23    $0.5
                                                                                                           Ramirez #11     24    $0.5
                                                                                                           Ross      #12     24    $0.5

Bullpen  2010                         Bullpen 2012                                Bullpen 2014 
Francisco Cl    30   $4.0        Francisco Cl     32     $7.0          Madrigal   Cl      30   $4.0
Wilson      LH   29   $3.0        Hunter      RH    25     $0.5          Diamond  RH    31   $2.5
Eyre           RH  31   $1.0        Kiker         LH    24      $0.5          Hunter      RH    27   $2.5
Hunter      RH   23   $0.5        Madrigal  RH    28     $1.5           Kiker         LH    26   $1.5
Madrigal   RH   26   $0.5        Moscoso RH    28     $0.5          Moscoso   RH   30   $2.5
Moscoso   RH  26   $0.5        Nippert     RH   31     $2.0          Murphy T    LH    26   $1.5
Nippert      RH  29   $0.5        Strop         RP    26    $0.5          Strop           RH   28   $2.5
Rupe         RH  26   $1.5        Wilson      LH    31    $5.0           Young         LH   27   $1.5
            
Other Roster Candidates    Other Roster Candidates         Other Roster Candidates  
Golson     OF   24   $0.5        Moreland  1B    26    $0.5            Moreland   1B   28    $0.5
Arias         UIF  25   $0.5        Pina            C    24     $0.5            Murphy C   1B   24    $0.5
Vallejo      UIF  23   $0.5        Beltre         OF   22   debut           Bannister   RP  30    $1.5
Bannister RP  26   $0.5        Golson       OF   26    $1.5            Garr             RP 30    $1.5
Gabbard  RP   28   $0.5        Arias           UIF  27    $1.5            Jones         RP  27    $1.5
Garr          RP   26  debut       Duran        UIF   27    $1.5            Mendoza    RP  30   $4.0
Jones       RP  23  debut        Lemon      UIF   23    $0.5           Wieland      SP   24   $0.5
Kiker         RP  22   debut       Bannister  RP   28    $0.5    
Mendoza  RP  26   $0.5         Eyre           RP   33    $2.0      
Moscoso  RP  26    $0.5        Gabbard    RP   30    $2.5      
Murphy T  RP  22  debut        Garr            RP   28    $0.5      
Strop         RP  24   $0.5         Jones         RP   25    $0.5      
Young       RP  23  debut        Mendoza    RP   28    $1.5      
Main          SP   21 debut        Rupe          RP    28    $2.0      
Poveda     SP  22  debut        Young        RP    25    $0.5

Avg Age - 25 man roster
2010 – 26
2011 – 26.1
2012 – 27
2013 – 26.8
2014 – 26.8

Total Projected Salary - 25 man roster
2010 – $54 M
2011 - $56.5 M
2012 - $72 M
2013 - $96 M
2014 - $88 M

2010
The addition of Borbon in centerfield and Smoak at 1B yields a line-up that is projected to remain the same until 2013.  Exercising the option of either Millwood or Padilla provides a veteran starter, but the rotation looks to be a weak spot with only eight pitchers projected to be ready for major league duty.  Adding a pitcher like Sheets on a one or two year deal would be for the best and there is room in the budget with a projected total salary of $54M.  The additions of Moscoso and Hunter and the continuing maturation of Madrigal, Rupe, Wilson, and Francisco could make the bullpen a strength.

2011
This looks to be the first of a three-year run where the Rangers could be among teh most talented teams in baseball.  The line-up should be excellent with Hamilton, Davis, Smoak, Cruz, and potentially Ramirez anchoring the 3-7 slots and Kinsler setting the table.  Unless a veteran is added to the rotation, the starters will be very young with McCarthy, Feldman, and Diamond being the elder statesmen at the age of 28.  Holland and Feliz might be ready to lead the starters.  The bullpen should be a strength with Kiker and Strop stepping into prominent roles and Francisco, Wilson, and Madrigal handling the 8th and 9th innings.  McCarthy will be in his final year and potentially available in trade.  An outfielder or two (Boggs, Murphy, Cruz, Golson) and a catcher (with Pina ready to step in as the backup) could be used in a deal to bring in a key player for a playoff run. 

2012
The line-up should be extremely potent with everyone except Young either in or entering their prime.  Main and/or Beavan might be ready to join a rotation that could be anchored by Holland, Feliz, and Harrison.   With Madrigal, Strop, and Kiker ready to handle late-inning duties and Garr, Jones, and Young ready for the major leagues, Wilson and Francisco, who will both be in the final years of their contracts, might be traded to bring in prospects to re-stock the farm.

2013
With Hamilton, Kinsler, Saltalamacchia, Cruz, and Young in the final years of their contracts, this could be the end of an era in Rangers baseball.  Player salaries will approach $100M.  Davis, Smoak, Saltalamacchia, Borbon, Andrus, and Ramirez will all be in their mid- to late-20’s.  If all goes well, Beltre should be ready to impact the major league team.  The rotation should be nearing its apex with Holland, Feliz, Main, Perez, and Harrison in the starting 5 and other talented arms ready to plug in if needed.  Francisco and Wilson will have departed but the bullpen will remain a talented group with Madrigal or Strop likely ready to close.  Hamilton, Cruz, Saltalamacchia, and Kinsler could either anchor another playoff run or be traded in the final years of their contracts to bring in young talent that could extend the Rangers window of playoff contention.

2014
The line-up will change dramatically with Lemon, Duran, Teagarden, and Beltre taking over for Kinsler, Young, Saltalamacchia, and Hamilton.  Player salaries will drop back below $90M providing enough roster flexibility to bring in a big-name free agent or trade acquisition to bolster the line-up if needed.  Pitching should be the team’s strength with Feliz, Holland, Main, Perez, Beavan, Harrison, Hurley, Boscan, Font, and Ramirez all aged 23-28 and Madrigal, Hunter, Kiker, Moscoso, Murphy, Strop, Young, and Diamond forming a talented and experienced bullpen. 

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