LSB's Top 25 Rangers Revisited via WAR
by philkid3 on Mar 4, 2009 9:30 PM CST
19 comments
I was reading a FanPost at Amazin' Avenue inspired by the historical WAR page put together by Sean Smith. I was fooling around with it for the Rangers, and decided it might be interesting to pull back up the top 25 Rangers as we voted on them and compare them via WAR.
Position players are in bold because they're all that there's WAR for. But I didn't want to just leave out the pitchers, so I used Support-Neutral Value Above Replacement from BP for starters and Expected Wins added above replacement for relievers. Not really good metrics, especially for comparing position players valued by WAR, but it serves my purposes for this.
The lines are, in order, the average of his best three seasons as a Ranger, the average of his five year peak, his average per 600 PA (200 IP for SP, 60 IP for RP) and his career total as a Ranger.
Some slightly interesting results.
1. Ivan Rodriguez: 6.4 | 5.9 | 4.9 | 48.7
2. Juan Gonzalez: 5.3 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 28.5
3. Nolan Ryan: 4.4 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 16.1
4. Rafael Palmeiro: 6.5 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 43.2
5. Alex Rodriguez: 8.3 | 8.3 | 6.9 | 24.8
6. Rusty Greer: 4.3 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 20.5
7. Michael Young: 4.0 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 20.3
8. Charlie Hough: 5.0 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 40.5
9. Kenny Rogers: 4.7 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 24.5
10. Jim Sundberg: 4.7 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 29.9
11. Buddy Bell: 6.4 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 35.4
12. Ruben Sierra: 4.3 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 19.8
13. Fergie Jenkins: 5.6 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 24.8
14. Toby Harrah: 5.4 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 29.2
15. Will Clark: 3.4 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 15.2
16. Kevin Brown: 4.4 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 20.7
17. Mark Teixeira: 4.8 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 17.4
18. Julio Franco: 6.0 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 20.4
19. John Wetteland: 4.0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 12.4
20. Tom Grieve: 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 2.5
21. Rick Helling: 4.0 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 15.5
22. Bobby Witt: 2.9| 1.9 | 1.9 | 16.5
23. Dean Palmer: 2.3 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 6.4
24. Jeff Russell: 2.0 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 13.3
25. Gaylord Perry: 4.4 | 5.2 | 3.8 | 15.6
And then a couple players I felt, at the time, had good arguments for the top 25:
Mike Hargrove: 4.3 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 17.7
Pete O’Brien: 3.7 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 17.0
Hank Blalock: 2.9 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 10.4
Jeff Burroughs: 2.6 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 7.7
Al Oliver: 3.4 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 12.2
Unless we missed someone, this would mean the top 10 Rangers position players in all-time Wins Above Replacement are:
1. Ivan Rodriguez 48.7
2. Rafael Palmeiro 43.2
3. Buddy Bell 35.4
4. Jim Sundberg 29.9
5. Toby Harrah 29.2
6. Juan Gonzalez 28.5
7. Alex Rodriguez 24.8
8. Rusty Greer 20.5
9. Julio Franco 20.4
10. Michael Young 20.3
Finally, the best 11 seasons I came across:
Alex Rodriguez 2002: 8.5
Alex Rodriguez 2001: 8.2
Alex Rodriguez 2003: 8.1
Rafael Palmeiro 1993: 7.7
Buddy Bell 1979: 7.2
Ivan Rodriguez 1998: 6.7
Juan Gonzalez 1993: 6.7
Julio Franco 1991: 6.6
Rafael Palmeiro 1991: 6.4
Buddy Bell 1984: 6.3
Ivan Rodriguez 1999: 6.2
Kinsler and Hamilton last year were very close. Kinsler would have been well on the list without getting hurt.
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That page didn't exist at the time of the voting.
But I think it helps highlight in short terms my rabid support for Buddy Bell. I think he’s easily one of the three best Rangers ever and he finished outside the top 10.
It does, however, hurt my case for Pete O’Brien a bit.
This also makes Nolan Ryan look even worse than he did at the time.
by philkid3 on Mar 4, 2009 9:32 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Can't say I'm a fan of Tango's hip statistic.
I think the formula he uses is an interesting one. I just don’t believe the sum of a player’s actual worth, offensively and defensively, can be wrapped up in such a simple number.
People will argue that it is a good tool in giving you an idea of what type of year you can expect from a ballplayer, and I can’t really argue that it doesn’t.
It is just not my cup of tea. I simply think that there are just too many intangibles involved when you try to single out one person’s value (in wins) as relative to an entire team’s effort.
I certainly hope I am not the only one who believes these things.
I have fulfilled all my prophecies; all my predictions are up to date.
My train is right on schedule.
by oc on Mar 4, 2009 10:15 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Point of Order
This isn’t Tango’s, it’s Sean Smith’s.
Also, I don’t think anyone disagrees with you if you think there’s no such thing as a perfect numerical analysis or value. That’s a different conversation, though.
by philkid3 on Mar 4, 2009 10:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Could you share what else a player does towards winning that this metric doesn't deal with?
Are you talking context type things or leadership type things or something else?
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Mar 5, 2009 1:53 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know how to answer this without coming off sounding stupid, but I just do not agree with some of the predetermined angles needed to achieve its purpose.
And I’ll just leave it at that.
I have fulfilled all my prophecies; all my predictions are up to date.
My train is right on schedule.
by oc on Mar 5, 2009 10:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm shocked at Juan Gonzalez's low WAR values.
His late ‘90s run didn’t put him over 6.2 WAR even one time? Unbelievable.
by NoNameOnCard on Mar 5, 2009 12:56 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
His last four years with the team were 2.9, 2.4, 5.3 and 3.8.
Poor defense and not a very high OBP (which skews his OPS+). Not that his OBP was bad, but not great, and in a hitters’ park at a position of low offensive value.
That’s probably where it’s coming from.
by philkid3 on Mar 5, 2009 1:13 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm a fish out of water with these modern-day statistical evaluations,
but wouldn’t Al Oliver’s seasons be considered Top 25?
"I saw your act, just didn't make it for me. Just a lot of fluff."
by scoop16 on Mar 5, 2009 2:05 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
3.9, 2.9, 3.3, 2.1
So no. Even for his era, he didn’t have great on base skills or great power. His OPS+ for his tenure here was around 130 (ranging from 125-137). That’s definitely good, but it’s not great. He only played more than 136 games once and as few as 102 once. And, he was primarily a DH and corner outfielder, positions of low offensive value, and there was nothing for him to add outside of his bat.
Even just looking at simple numbers, I’m just not seeing what would make those years great. Good, to be sure, but that’s all.
by philkid3 on Mar 5, 2009 3:11 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
That said. . .
. . . I definitely didn’t look at Al Oliver until he was brought up, so there’s a good chance I did miss someone whose total was in the top 10.
by philkid3 on Mar 5, 2009 3:15 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for the reply.
I’m still a little confused, it seems those numbers would be above at least Grieve and Palmer. FWIW, in the 102 GP season, that tied for the team lead, as only 105 games were played that year. Does the formula take into account the strike? As you can tell from my avatar, I’m biased for the guy.
"I saw your act, just didn't make it for me. Just a lot of fluff."
by scoop16 on Mar 5, 2009 10:42 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry, I misread your post.
I had thought you were asking if he should have one of the best seasons all-time in total WAR for the Rangers, and that’s what I was answering.
As far as being in the top 25, there’s a good chance he should have been and a good chance his stats would put him there. He definitely belongs over Grieve and Palmer, at the very least. But this list was determined by votes, not stats.
His line would be: 10.1 | 12.2 | 3.3 | 12.2
So, yeah, by the numbers, he’s arguably a top 25 Ranger, and definitely ahead of some guys we chose.
by philkid3 on Mar 5, 2009 4:08 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
And I had forgotten that was a strike year.
Thanks for pointing that out, because they’re not adjusted for the strike. That obviously means it underrates him a little, but it’s an easy adjustment to make if you need to.
It pro-rates his WAR that season to about 3.3 over a 162 game season, which takes him to 13.4 total over those years.
by philkid3 on Mar 5, 2009 4:14 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Good deal, Thanks.
The only omission from Top 10 seasons might be J. Franco’s ’91 year.
"I saw your act, just didn't make it for me. Just a lot of fluff."
by scoop16 on Mar 5, 2009 6:19 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Good call! 6.6
His two years before that were close, too. He was one of the first baseball players I knew, but I didn’t realize how good he was in Texas until this project.
by philkid3 on Mar 5, 2009 7:50 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Awesome stuff. More teams should do this.
One idea: for the first two numbers (best three and five peak), how about showing the average WAR, so it’s on a scale we’re more familiar with.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Mar 5, 2009 4:37 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Running it as a Saber-Friendly Blogging 101 post tomorrow, FYI.
Any thoughts on streamlining the best three and top five consecutive calculations?
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Mar 5, 2009 6:22 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm busy on catching up on some internet related stuff, first of which is the All-Time draft.
Then sure thing.
by philkid3 on Mar 5, 2009 7:46 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
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