The Andruw Saga
by Adam J. Morris on Mar 5, 2009 8:03 PM CST
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PrintInteresting note from Evan Grant on Andruw Jones:
OF Andruw Jones struck out for the 10th time in his 14 spring at-bats. His timing has been so off that he’s been fooled badly by pitches. Jones will lead off every inning of a controlled “B” game Friday morning and then play all nine innings of the afternoon exhibition against the Royals. The Rangers are trying to get him as many at-bats as possible before March 15 when Jones can opt out of his minor league contract and become a free agent.
All the armchair hitting coaches who were convinced when this signing came down that his inability to hit was somehow tied to his being fat last year might be wanting to re-think their positions.
It is probably a good thing Nelson Cruz is in the WBC, because otherwise, it might be hard to justify continuing to give spring ABs to Jones. The Marlon Byrd and David Murphy injury situations don't appear to be significant, and quite honestly, at this point, I have to think the March 15 date is largely irrelevant because, the way Jones has played thusfar, I can't imagine he's going to find a better offer out there if he does opt out.
Maybe something is going to click. Rudy supposedly was a backer of Jones, which I guess means something, although he also was all about wasting four months on Sammy Sosa, and thought that Phil Nevin's desiccated corpse could be resurrected in a DH role in Texas. But I just have a hard time seeing how, after a disastrous 2008 season, getting sent home from winter ball for being terrible (oh, but wait, that was no big deal, right?), and now being awful so far in spring training, 9 ABs in a B game and a handful of spring starts is going to turn him around. I guess this just falls in the category of due diligence, but still...
Yeah, I know, I predicted he'd be on the Opening Day roster, but I'm crawfishing frantically on that right now. I figured he'd show enough to spend a few months in center field while posting a 700 OPS and getting enough RBIs to have the same folks who were all squiggly over Sammy Sosa in 2007 talking about what a great pickup he was.
But I was wrong. And as was pointed out at BTB today, if you look at the guys who are most comparable to Jones through age 31, you see names like Jesse Barfield, Dale Murphy, Roger Maris...really good players who were basically done by the time they were 30 or 31.
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Has there been any indication at all
that he might be better than last year?
So far it’s looked like all he has done is strike out and slap hit a little.
JEFF TEAGUE TIME.
I sincerely hope that Druw is on his way out of Texas (Surprise?)
I might be the only one, but I still think Brandon Boggs has a chance to be an impact fourth outfielder for Texas. Jones’ departure keeps his door open.
My 2009 New Years Resolution: Quit feeding the trolls.
You're not the only one.
Nor should you be. His defense and poor luck last year should be enough to think he has at least a chance.
to be an "impact" 4th OF?
what are the chances hes going to be as good/better than byrd was last year?
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
Didn't see this anywhere else...
LAKELAND, Fla. — Tigers catcher Gerald Laird left today’s 10-2 exhibition win over Washington in the third inning because of a mild left quadriceps strain.
The team said his status is day-to-day.
Link.
I kinda figured all along Andruw would either fly out of the gates, sending the hype machine into overdrive
Or he’d do exactly what he has done, and that’s bomb and look like a little leaguer at the plate.
I think you give him the next 10 days to show something (since Cruz is off at the WBC) and if he doesn’t turn things around in a big way by then, release him.
"You can have such a massive impact on a game even when you're not getting ground balls hit at you." - Michael Young
Worth a shot.
"My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is,
‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all.
So I’m not going to say anything at all.
Is my mother the greatest or what?"
- Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, after signing Ichiro to a $90 million contract
AJM
I shared your optimism about Jones making the team. like you said, Rudy isn’t infallable. So who is going to be the 5th OFer once they buy out Cat’s contract?
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
If Jones doesn't make the team...
…I don’t know why they would cut Cat loose.
by Adam J. Morris on Mar 5, 2009 8:47 PM CST up reply actions
Roster spot for an NRI pitcher (or Vizquel)?
I would hope they’d cut the 34 y/o who can’t throw, field or provide any real value at the plate before anyone else if they need a roster spot for an NRI.
"You can have such a massive impact on a game even when you're not getting ground balls hit at you." - Michael Young
by LSJ on Mar 5, 2009 9:01 PM CST up reply actions
They aren't going to go with 3 bench players
So it isn’t a question of Cat or a pitcher.
by Adam J. Morris on Mar 5, 2009 9:13 PM CST up reply actions
Brian Sabean on releasing Dave Roberts.
I think the longer we went not doing something would have been an injustice to trying to find out about our own kids and giving him a chance to go somewhere else
What purpose does Cat serve on the team? I would rather have the Rangers keep Boggs or Metcalf than keep Cat around.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/sfgate/detail?blogid=22&entry_id=36617
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
Metcalf would make the perfect 25th man right now, IMO
He’s really got nothing left to prove in AAA, but nobody seems to think he’ll do much in the majors… yet he does have some pop and has shown the ability to run into one every now than then. Plus he plays third base, something we could use if Arias or Vizquel is going to be our UT guy.
"You can have such a massive impact on a game even when you're not getting ground balls hit at you." - Michael Young
by LSJ on Mar 5, 2009 9:11 PM CST up reply actions
Didn't he play some left field today, as well?
"My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is,
‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all.
So I’m not going to say anything at all.
Is my mother the greatest or what?"
- Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, after signing Ichiro to a $90 million contract
If you just watched him in the majors without looking at his history
you would think so
"My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is,
‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all.
So I’m not going to say anything at all.
Is my mother the greatest or what?"
- Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, after signing Ichiro to a $90 million contract
Well, small sample size, but
.475 SLG in the majors. Hence the ability to run into one every now and then.
But the real asset would be having him around to play 3B if needed – Arias and Vizquel don’t really have the arm for that, I don’t think.
"You can have such a massive impact on a game even when you're not getting ground balls hit at you." - Michael Young
by LSJ on Mar 5, 2009 9:16 PM CST up reply actions
Okay
First, he has a 475 slugging percentage in very little big league time. CHONE projects a .360 slugging percentage for 2009. PECOTA says .324. That’s a lot more realistic than .400-anything from him.
Secondly, you say you want him around to play 3B “if needed”…how many games do you expect we’ll need a backup third baseman? If Young is healthy he’s going to start 160 games there. If he gets hurt, you bring Metcalf (or, more likely, Duran) up.
Metcalf is going to end up losing his 40 man slot to make room for one of the NRI pitchers you were talking about. He has no business on a major league roster right now.
by Adam J. Morris on Mar 5, 2009 9:19 PM CST up reply actions
But neither does Cat
Cat is every bit as useless. I’m not saying I expect Metcalf to do anything like slug .400, but I’d rather have a guy who at least has one small asset on the roster (ability to back up 3B) than a guy who has virtually none.
"You can have such a massive impact on a game even when you're not getting ground balls hit at you." - Michael Young
by LSJ on Mar 5, 2009 9:22 PM CST up reply actions
So
PECOTA projections for 2009:
Cat — .280/.349/.412
Metcalf — .199/.257/.324
Now, is it really your position that you’d rather have the guy with the projected 601 OPS because he can give you 5-6 starts at 3B over the course of the season? Particularly when you have a utility infielder in Vizquel who is perfectly capable of doing so?
by Adam J. Morris on Mar 5, 2009 9:26 PM CST up reply actions
Sorry
A projected 581 OPS, not 601 OPS.
by Adam J. Morris on Mar 5, 2009 9:27 PM CST up reply actions
Considering Cat can't realistically play anywhere but first base
I might. I don’t think either one would get enough AB’s for their offense to make much of a difference, and Metcalf is at least working on making himself somewhat flexible defensively.
Also, based on what we’ve heard recently about Vizquel’s arm, I’m not sure we’d want him playing 3B and more than we would Arias.
"You can have such a massive impact on a game even when you're not getting ground balls hit at you." - Michael Young
by LSJ on Mar 5, 2009 9:33 PM CST up reply actions
A 761 OPS guy at least has some value
A 761 OPS at least provides some offensive value.
You are basically wanting to punt a roster spot with Metcalf.
And if Vizquel can’t throw well enough to play 3B, he can’t throw well enough to play shortstop, so he shouldn’t be on the roster anyway.
by Adam J. Morris on Mar 5, 2009 9:38 PM CST up reply actions
multi-position
If Metcalf is just limited to one position than I would rather keep Duran over Cat and him. I think the ideal player for the last roster spot would be a veteran switch hitting OFer that can also play a corner IF position.
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
I don't want to keep Duran...
…for the same reason I don’t want to keep Boggs…he’d get no playing time.
The ideal 25th man would be a Calvin Murray-type who could give you CF defense and pinch run occasionally.
by Adam J. Morris on Mar 5, 2009 9:32 PM CST up reply actions
Greg Golson..
"My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is,
‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all.
So I’m not going to say anything at all.
Is my mother the greatest or what?"
- Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, after signing Ichiro to a $90 million contract
Brett Gardner
"My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is,
‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all.
So I’m not going to say anything at all.
Is my mother the greatest or what?"
- Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, after signing Ichiro to a $90 million contract
Maybe we can trade Metcalf for Gardner
"My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is,
‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all.
So I’m not going to say anything at all.
Is my mother the greatest or what?"
- Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, after signing Ichiro to a $90 million contract
You mean
other than the fact that he hits better, fields better and has more upside than the decaying husk that is Catalanotto.
Get off my lawn.
Metcalf? Boggs?
Why?
I mean, I like Boggs, and would be on board with him being the 4th outfielder if we could get something for Byrd…
But keeping him around to get 150 PAs in 2009? What’s the point?
And as for Metcalf…I don’t see why you need a backup third baseman who can’t hit. Useless.
by Adam J. Morris on Mar 5, 2009 9:14 PM CST up reply actions
Cat bandwagon
So you are driving the Catalanotto bandwagon?
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
No
I’m saying that if the choice is between having him hanging around as a bench bat, and having Travis Metcalf or an 8th reliever up here, I’d just as soon keep Cat.
by Adam J. Morris on Mar 5, 2009 9:24 PM CST up reply actions
a really really long standing fascination
although cat was alright at one point
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
way way back when
he was a cheap player who could actually get on base, sure.
Now, I can’t think of many worse guys to have on the 25 man than a guy who can’t field, and is only a platoon 750 OPS guy.
Get off my lawn.
Well...
That doesn’t mean that Cat’s worse than Metcalf. I don’t think you’re looking at how bad Metcalf truly is.
A guy who can only play 3B...
…and is a sub-600 OPS guy?
by Adam J. Morris on Mar 5, 2009 10:31 PM CST up reply actions
Except
in 2 short seasons in the major, he has been closer to a 750 OPS guy, and in the minors was a 750 OPS guy.
Why would I think he is going to be a sub 600 OPS guy? Because PECOTA says so? PECOTA often says things that are completely wrong.
Get off my lawn.
He might not be sub 600, but to expect anything even close to 700 is delusional.
The guy had a 670 OPS with Oklahoma last year. That is almost 17% below the PCL league average. That’s horrible! He has downright sucked since his promotion to AA at age 23. On top of that, his fielding sucked last year and hasn’t been good at any level since his AA promotion, except for a short stint with Oklahoma in 2007. Even with his power surge in the majors last year, he was still at replacement level overall during that stint. That means any AAA scrub can come up and put up those numbers.
Give it up. Travis Metcalf is not a Major Leaguer.
x
and in the minors was a 750 OPS guy.
In A ball, yeah.
The past three years, in the minors, he’s been at 623, 729, and 670.
The fact that, for the most part, he hasn’t hit above A-ball is probably why PECOTA, and CHONE, for that matter, both project him to be bad offensively in 2009.
by Adam J. Morris on Mar 5, 2009 10:43 PM CST up reply actions
I think I shared AJM's feelings about Jones making the team.
And I don’t think optimism was the word.
This is stunning to me.
I didn’t think he’d be good, but I certainly thought after last season he’d find SOME way to avoid being indescribably bad. This is so much worse than I thought was possible.
Which isn’t bad, because I was banking on him being around mediocre and being given a 40 man roster spot and more plate appearances than he deserved. This hopefully helps avoid that issue.
Do you really think if the dude was worth squat
the Dodgers would have dumped him given the contract they gave him. They saw he was done! The only future after done is the Rangers I guess the NRI home away from being done.
Spare the embarassment
I thought it was clear that when Atlanta let him go, he was toast. I won’t speculate on the reason, but consider that even the Netherlands WBC team hasn’t made any noise about getting him to play would indicate that even semi-professional scouts and one gig coaches don’t think he’s a machina du beisbol any more. I said nothing about the low risk gambit on him, but don’t see any reason to compound the risk by arbitrarily keeping him around.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)
by Ed Coffin on Mar 5, 2009 9:23 PM CST up reply actions
how do we know they havent made any noise about him playing
how do we know they didnt ask him to and he, flatly, refused to – instead choosing to stay in TX and attempt to continue his career
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
Possible
Given that it’s the Netherlands, and Curacao prominent among the Antilles. But usually, invites to known major leaguers get some press. Had he been asked, it would be good advice to stay with TX and try to lifeboat his career, yes. Not that I’ve had my ear to the ground or looked up Willemstadt news, but I’ve heard nothing about any WBC invite for him.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912)
by Ed Coffin on Mar 6, 2009 12:07 PM CST up reply actions
Sounds like
Andruw has the hitter’s version of Steve Blass Disease.
"We live, we die, and the wheels on the bus go round and round." - Tony Romo
Hey, Willie Mays started 1 for 24.
Seriously though, you’re right, it has that ugly Mark Wohlers, Rick Ankiel, Mackey Sasser feel to it. You just know he’s going to the plate thinking about striking out. And what did Yogi say, “The game is 90% mental, and the other half is physical.”
"I saw your act, just didn't make it for me. Just a lot of fluff."
if it was completely mental
then there would be some outside shot he could fix it – in which case you would want to give him every opportunity to do so .
but i think adam is suggesting that it is just physical
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
you know what's weird about your opposing the signing?
that even at this point, with jones completely tanking, people can say “I told you so.”
but i won’t say it…
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
cause there doesn't seem like there's a way where a bad andruw is going to ciphon AB's from good OF'ers
he’s just going to get cut
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
The point was that there was nothing good that come out of bringing Jones in
At best, he was going to struggle in ST and not make the team. At worst, he was going to steal playing time from much more deserving players.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
At best he was going to
spell some injured OFs or maybe push a dead roster spot like Cat off the team.
At worst he gets released.
I really don’t see why people get so up in arms about NRIs. They don’t cost much, and spring training playing time is pretty easy to come by.
Get off my lawn.
I'm not up in arms about signing him
I just highly disagree with the thought that he could have come here and rise from the ashes to play like he did a few years ago.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
Yeah, it was a pretty big longshot,
but then again, most NRIs are cheap, lottery ticket longshots. Most of the time its not gonna payoff, but it really doesn’t cost anything.
Get off my lawn.
and the upside for someone like jones is still pretty high
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
That upside had as good a chance of happening as
Doug Mathis becoming a top of the rotation starter.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
So then
it doesn’t really matter that they’re giving him a NRI then, does it?
R
No it doesn't
But again, I don’t see the point in crazy what if’s
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
and your worse case scenario really didn't exist, no matter how many times you and adam repeat it
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
OT: John Hart just said all they knew about Manny Ramirez was that he watched him take four at-bats in high school.
And they moved him to the top of their draft board — even though he had a funny swing and couldn’t run (‘cuz that matters so much) — because one of the scouts was a Pirates fan and thought Manny was the next Roberto Clemente and promised himself if he ever got another chance to see Clemente play every day, he’d take it.
Whether or not Manny turned out awesome, I weep that this man is involved in any way with our franchise.
maybe we can find our manny?
id be ok with that lol
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
but yes
horrible decision to move a player to the top of your board
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
I still had doubt
that Jones was truly still as terrible as he was last season. But today I had the (mis?)fortune of seeing his 10th strikeout in person, and it was really, really ugly. And now it’s looking like I’ll see 2 or 3 more strikeouts tomorrow.
Please stick a fork in this guy.
On a positive note,
How good did Feldman’s stuff look in person?
"I saw your act, just didn't make it for me. Just a lot of fluff."
Pretty damned good.
It was a really nice way to get the ballgame started.
Speaking of pitchers though, does anyone know Benson’s ground ball fly ball ratio? It seemed every time SD got wood on the ball, it went up in the air. Not sure that would fare too well in Arlington (assuming he makes it).
by JBP on Mar 6, 2009 1:03 AM CST up reply actions
His career is 1.07 and he doesn't deviate from that very often.
He tends pretty consistently to be around 41% ground balls and 38% fly balls.
Wait, did you mean yesterday?
Sorry if you did and I just gave you a bunch of stuff you full well knew how to find yourself.
I miss Sammy
He was awesome in 2007! Andruw Jones is an enigma. He was always an overrated hitter.
by BillyBobisdrunk on Mar 6, 2009 12:35 AM CST reply actions
Not really
He’s got 610 comments, and a lower UID# than me. I’ve seen him before – he pops up every now and then to profess something odd, like his completely unfounded love for Sammy Sosa.
"You can have such a massive impact on a game even when you're not getting ground balls hit at you." - Michael Young
by LSJ on Mar 6, 2009 3:19 AM CST up reply actions
User ID. A number assigned to users based on when they joined.
Mine is 1,568, for instance. Which, I believe, means I was the 1,568th person to join LSB.
I’m pretty sure that was on the old version of SBN, though. I joined LSB on February 18th last year and didn’t really post. When I did start posting, the place was completely different. So I’m probably one of the last people here with a UID. (And I don’t have one for any other SBN blog. I read the BtBs [Beyond the Boxscore and Blogging the Boys] before joining SBN, but never posted.)
I think I have that right.
Your UID is 538.
If you look in your profile:
It’s right there. I’m #1446, as you can see, and you’re #538 (meaning you’ve been coming here a helluva lot longer than I have). Not everyone has one though – the working theory is that users who joined after the switch to LSB 2.0 aren’t assigned one.
"You can have such a massive impact on a game even when you're not getting ground balls hit at you." - Michael Young
by LSJ on Mar 6, 2009 6:18 AM CST up reply actions
Also, looking at the fact that you're only #538
And yet I have over 10 times the amount of comments you do (I think that would be correct math anyway) it also means I’m kind of a comment whore.
"You can have such a massive impact on a game even when you're not getting ground balls hit at you." - Michael Young
by LSJ on Mar 6, 2009 6:22 AM CST up reply actions
ha.
Great. Thanks for the help. Acutally, I think it just means I don’t really have anything meaningful to say.
"This report of my death was an exaggeration"--Mark Twain
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