Elvis Andrus and service time issues
by Adam J. Morris on Mar 9, 2009 11:00 AM CDT
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PrintI've seen several comments in the morning post that are debating whether or not Elvis Andrus even knows about the service time implications of him starting the season in the majors versus being sent down.
Now, I have no way of knowing whether he does or not.
But you can be damn sure his agent knows.
And will probably inform Andrus of what it means, as well.
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As I said in the morning post
I think that the Rangers will try to sign Andrus to a contract that will buy out some of his arb and/or FA years if he performs at the level that they expect him to (like they did with Ian). If that is the case, I don’t see the point in starting out his major league career on the wrong foot.
What if he hits .250/.295/.320 this year? Do you lock him up at a high guaranteed cost for six more years?
by Brett Perryman on Mar 9, 2009 11:14 AM CDT up reply actions
I was thinking more down the line
I don’t think they’re thinking after this year, but after 3 years if he is performing well, they may begin trying to lock him up. That extra year of arb won’t matter then.
Sure it will
You think that it doesn’t cost a lot extra to buy out years of free agency? Of course it does, and that’s if you can even talk the player into doing it.
by Brett Perryman on Mar 9, 2009 11:25 AM CDT up reply actions
It may cost more
But Young’s previous contract was very cost effecient at the time. Many said he was being underpaid (of course, he’s massively overpaid now). Sure Andrus would have to go along with the contract, but the Rangers have shown a proclivity to lock younger players up and buy out their arb years in the past, and I think it has worked out ok for them. I’m just thinking that may be a factor here.
Yep
Look at the Longoria deal. Keeping him in the minors that extra couple weeks last year probably saved the Rays about 5 million on the deal. Because instead of Longoria having 3 arbitration years he would have 4 and when he is making 7.5 mil in 2014 instead of that being his first FA year its a big savings. If they paid 11 mil in 2014 instead of 7.5 and then 11.5 instead of 11 in 2015 and then say 12 or 12.5 instead of 11.5 in 2016.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Whos his agent?
"It doesn't look like he's trying. It kinda pisses me off," "He could throw 110 if he tried. The way it explodes out of his hand is really something special." ~ B-Mac on Feliz.
Heh
I was thinking the same thing when reading that thread. Who cares if Andrus knows anything about contract rules? His agent knows them all; this’ his agent’s job.
And if not his agent, then other players
At the very least you would expect the MLBPA rep (CJ?) to explain to him what’s going on.
by NorCalRangersFan on Mar 9, 2009 12:44 PM CDT up reply actions
Here is the biggest thing with Andrus that some seem to be missing
When TB stuck Longoria in AAA for a couple of weeks, everyone knew that he was more than ready for the major leagues. However fair it was and however much impact it had on the deal they soon thereafter signed, you were talking about a guy who everyone knew would immediately become a ROY contender if he was brought up.
The same will be true of Matt Wieters if the Orioles do go ahead and do this with him, as has been reported. PECOTA projects Wieters to have one of the best years ever for a catcher this year. He’s going to be the face of that franchise and almost immediately the team leader. And he’s clearly ready. Yet they’re looking at doing this.
Andrus is being rushed. This is not a 23 year old who has nothing more to work on in the minors. He just adjusted in AA in the second half to the point that he was a solid player in that league. He is not in the same class with Longoria and Wieters as a slam dunk to be ready for the majors. Sure, the notion of a cameo just to save service time can feel like a kick in the pants, but there is no reason that the Rangers have to approach it that way. As Daniels has said, they didn’t hand him the job, they handed him the opportunity to play for the job. It will be no insult if he spends a month in AAA getting his feet wet there before he gets his feet wet in the majors.
by Brett Perryman on Mar 9, 2009 11:23 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Agree
“But JD painted himself into a corner! Y’know, he said stuff about championship players, and he meant Elvis — now what’s JD gonna do?!?!?”
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on Mar 9, 2009 11:40 AM CDT up reply actions
I think he has been pretty clear on what he is going to do
He’s going to start Elvis at SS on opening day, thus the problem.
Doctor please. Some more of these.
I think it is similar to Ian Kinsler's situation in 2006
They moved a veteran to make room for him, have another veteran in place who they can use as the starter if the kid isn’t ready, and who will be the utility man otherwise.
I don’t think it is a problem, necessarily. The reality is, if you think Andrus is going to be up at some point in 2009, you have to move Michael Young before the season starts.
And I think this move, as much as anything, was about getting Young off of shortstop to improve the infield defense. They wanted Young at third base now, rather than later, and I think that while Daniels has to deny it publicly and say that this is about making room for Elvis, I think the reality is that it is as much as anything about shifting Young off shortstop to fix the godawful left side infield defense.
by Adam J. Morris on Mar 9, 2009 11:50 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Nice to have a breath of reality...
That whole “but JD said this to the press” line from other threads…that was some LSB hall of fame retardation there.
Maybe Randy Galloway can get a front office consultant job like Hart has.
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on Mar 9, 2009 11:58 AM CDT up reply actions
I don't follow
Maybe my retardation problem is acting up again.
JD has indicated that Andrus is going to be the starting SS on opening day. This is a stupid decision for the reasons that zywica mentions above. Are you disputing either of these statements?
Doctor please. Some more of these.
I know you don't live in Texas
So I’ll assume that you didn’t see the televised game on Saturday. Grieve made numerous comments that indicated the decision to start Elvis at SS on opening day was a done deal. I seriously doubt that Grieve would make those type comments unless he knew what he was talking about.
Doctor please. Some more of these.
hmm
well this is where it gets tricky. I feel like there are some others in the organization that have said Andrus is starting but JD always seemed to choose his words carefully about Andrus. I could be wrong, but I don’t know if there’s a JD soundbite out there saying Andrus starts the season in the majors.
Not that I think Grieve is an infallible source, but I do agree that others in the organization have made it sound like Andrus starting was a done deal. That probably wasn’t the best idea
"To be ignorant of one’s ignorance is the malady of the ignorant."
Here's the thing
JD can decide not to start Elvis at SS. Because he’s the GM.
Maybe he’ll find performance-based reasons and go with those, as opposed to something he said in the paper.
He might even shoot the guy down to AAA for long-term contractual reasons, and just bear along with the guilt of telling the press something else.
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on Mar 9, 2009 12:13 PM CDT up reply actions
He very well may
but if they keep him in Arlington it won’t be because they feel they’ve painted themselves into a corner. If this team was that sensitive to public opinion they wouldn’t have moved Young this year, or maybe they would have lowered ticket prices.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
Public opinion.
IMO, it’s not about public opinion. JD personally told Andrus that the spot was his to lose. If he does nothing obvious on the playing field to lose the spot, he should be the starting day SS.
Comments to the media mean nothing to me. Direct statement to the player do.
Could you link to where you saw he told Elvis in person it was his to lose
Not disputing you but I don’t recall seeing that anywhere
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Who'd you hear it from?
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Hmmm
This doesn’t jive with my recollection:
“I let him know the decision we’ve made and that he was going to get an opportunity to make the club,” Daniels said. “That’s the way I phrased it. All he is getting is the opportunity. It’s up to him to make the most of it.”
I swear I’ve heard the phrase “his to lose”.
Maybe it was Wash?
He’s a pretty good shortstop. I just want him to play baseball. I don’t foresee anything happening for him to not make this team."
Regardless, it’s always been assumed that he’s not really in a battle for the spot, right? I just think it sends conflicting messages to Andrus if he goes out and has a good spring and then is kept in the minors due to contract stuff.
No
I think the signing of a veteran like Omar Vizquel sent a pretty clear message that when Elvis is ready its his position to have but the Rangers are perfectly happy starting the year without him in the majors. Now if he goes out and has a nice spring then it makes the decision tougher but I think it will take Andrus having a great spring coupled with Vizquel having a really bad one along with Arias not being able to play the position to get him on the Opening Day roster.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Personally..
…I don’t think it comes down to all that.
I think if Elvis has a solid spring and shows that he’s ready, the job is his.
If he’s not, it is Vizquel’s.
I think whether or not he’s on the roster is all about what he shows this spring, not what anyone else does.
by Adam J. Morris on Mar 9, 2009 12:50 PM CDT up reply actions
OK
So you think the Rangers would risk losing a potential year of team control if a guy like Vizquel shows he can still man the position for a month or so?
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Yes
You are talking about whether or not he’s a f.a. after the 2014 season or after the 2015 season.
And while I think they are aware of the situation, I also think the reality is that there’s a good chance that none of the folks making the decision, from Hicks on down, will still be here in 2015 anyway, which is going to mitigate that somewhat.
Do you think the Rangers made a mistake in starting the 2006 season with Kinsler in the majors?
by Adam J. Morris on Mar 9, 2009 12:54 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
What were our other options?
I think if we had a veteran 2B it may have made a difference.
Also Kinsler wasn’t 20 years old which I think will play a factor as well
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Dero?
"It doesn't look like he's trying. It kinda pisses me off," "He could throw 110 if he tried. The way it explodes out of his hand is really something special." ~ B-Mac on Feliz.
by Kinslerhomer on Mar 9, 2009 12:57 PM CDT up reply actions
Dero
He was coming off a 2005 with Texas where he hit 243/325/439. And since Kinslers biggest attribute was his offense I don’t think Dero was a big enough weapon to hold Kinsler back.
If Elvis was a offensive SS and hit for power then i think it would be harder to justify sending him down. But since he is a defensive wiz and you signed one of the best defensive SS as a stopgap it is easier to hold him back.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
They wanted Kinsler to win the job...
…and had DeRosa as a fall-back option in case he didn’t.
No different than now with Andrus and Vizquel, except that DeRosa was probably a better option as a starter than Vizquel.
And lest we forget, Kinsler was coming off a mildly disappointing season in AAA…after putting up video game numbers the year before, he needed a late push to get his OPS above 800, and didn’t get a September call-up (even though he was going to have to be added to the 40 man roster).
by Adam J. Morris on Mar 9, 2009 1:22 PM CDT up reply actions
Derosa was the fall back option
But I think the Rangers would have been very disappointed if they would have been forced to use him as an everyday player. (this is all of course before Dero had a nice year that I highly doubt anyone could have foreseen)
The thing here is Vizquel will probably be better than Andrus offensively and just as good if not better defensively. Andrus will be better in the long run than Vizquel is right now but right now hes not. Kinsler was expected to be better than Dero offensively and just as good if not better defensively when he came up. Completely different situations in my opinion.
If Andrus was 22 or 23 coming into this season then I could see pushing him. But hes already being rushed and if you have a similar if not better option already here and can extract an extra year of Andrus in the process then you send him down and bring him up when hes ready.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
I don't know
PECOTA projects Andrus as over 20 points EQA better than Vizquel.
by Adam J. Morris on Mar 9, 2009 7:42 PM CDT up reply actions
is that worth a year of team control?
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Thats my bad
I hadn’t looked up Vizquels stats until now but I didn’t realize how bad he had gotten.
But still Elvis isn’t being brought up for his offense. Its his defense at a premium defensive position. Vizquels defense is still at a very high level and probably will be better than Elvis’ this year.
So is Elvis’ small advantage offensively in 2009 worth making him a free agent after 2014 instead of 2015?
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
How is one related
to the other? I’m sure the team can stomach Vizquel’s lower projection for a few weeks.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
This
Is exactly what I was just thinking about.
"My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is,
‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all.
So I’m not going to say anything at all.
Is my mother the greatest or what?"
- Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, after signing Ichiro to a $90 million contract
The cost will come earlier
because if he is good, they will try to sign him to a long term contract and buy out some free agency years.
by NorCalRangersFan on Mar 9, 2009 12:57 PM CDT up reply actions
I’ll predict he breaks camp with OKC.
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on Mar 9, 2009 12:21 PM CDT up reply actions
Heh
Sure dude, just for you.
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on Mar 9, 2009 12:33 PM CDT up reply actions
I do.
And if not, I expect him to get sent down for at least the total of two weeks over the course of the year.
What is JD gonna do?
Say “we’re going to move him down for a couple weeks so we can control him longer,” and let the MLBPA tan his hyde?
What are you talking about?
Go Strangers.
by hightowersmith on Mar 9, 2009 12:39 PM CDT up reply actions
Its all about money
The decision has million dollar implications. Do you really think JD is that cavalier with Hick’s money now that Hicks has become so tight with finances?
by NorCalRangersFan on Mar 9, 2009 12:43 PM CDT up reply actions
"The reality is, if you think Andrus is going to be up at some point in 2009, you have to move Michael Young before the season starts."
Exactly. If there’s just a possibility of a player being ready, you make room for him before that season and it’s nice if you can sign a veteran for insurance.
When has JD made it pretty clear?
He’s never said that they were starting Andrus no matter what in the Majors. If he shows he can handle it throughout ST, then they’ll probably give him the job regardless of what Vizquel does. Otherwise, Andrus is starting in the minors and looking at a call-up at some point in 2009.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
Do you think a month in AAA instead of the major leagues will make that big of a difference developement-wise?
As for the extra year of team control – I really don’t care. In 6 years, there is a good chance that he won’t even get a major league gig, so worry about service time now seems superfluous. As you said, he is not the sure-fire major leaguer like Wieters and Longoria. In fact, the only way that the club won’t get the extra year is if he is good enough to stick at the big league level for the entire season, every single season. If he become indeed good enough to warrant some sort of contract extension, I don’t think it would cost the club more than a couple of million.
JD said that they knew they were rushing him, but they thought he was ready for it. That sounds like a pretty definitive answer to me; if it turns out that he is not ready, then it’ll be another error in player evaluation. Nevertheless, I do think the club intends to have him start the season in Arlington.
In 6 years Elvis Andrus won't be able to get a major league gig?
I’ve heard some doozys on here but that is one of the best right there
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
I know it's spring, but you should temper your enthusiasm
To say that a AA player will still be a major leaguer 6 years in the future is to say that the AA player will be a reasonably successful major leaguer. This is not a statement to be made lightly, even for someone like Andrus.
Well
Even if he’s a mediocre player, in 6 years, he’ll be 26 and the type of guy teams will scoop up as a utility infielder.
I’d be awfully surprised if he wasn’t in the majors in 6 years.
by Adam J. Morris on Mar 9, 2009 12:49 PM CDT up reply actions
My enthusiasm is tempered
But to make a blanket statement that a guy with his talents has a good chance of not being able to get a major league gig in 6 years is a bit harsh IMO. This is not Benji Gil we are talking about. This kid has been a top prospect for a couple years now and has performed very well given his age at each level. If his glove is what they say it is seeing as how guys like Marco Scutaro have jobs then I feel pretty confident a 26 year old Elvis Andrus will be a ML SS.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Even Benji Gil...
…was continuously in the majors from his age 27-30 seasons.
by Adam J. Morris on Mar 9, 2009 12:52 PM CDT up reply actions
Exactly my point
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
you are right
his defense will keep him around
although if he is reduced to a utilities role, the extra control year won’t be an issue 6 years from now on
On the month in OKC
Andrus seems to take one month to get his feet on the ground at each level and one more to get to the front of the learning curve. So yes, I think that spending a month in AAA would be meaningful for him, especially since he’d still be the youngest or one of the couple youngest guys in his league. Two or three months would be better, but one month is meaningful enough. And if he’s struggling, you could keep him there, rather than having to demote him. And I think that everyone understands that we’re talking about a margin between drowning and struggling but barely keeping his head afloat, not between solid/average and excelling.
by Brett Perryman on Mar 9, 2009 1:33 PM CDT up reply actions
Personally
I’d like to see him in OKC until early June or so, then let him spend the rest of the year getting acclimated to the big leagues and he’s good to go in 2010.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
Same here
I’d prefer three months each way.
by Brett Perryman on Mar 9, 2009 1:44 PM CDT up reply actions
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