I want an answer -- Juan Cruz
by Adam J. Morris on Apr 13, 2009 11:55 AM CDT
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PrintI can understand the Rangers' decision not to moneywhip someone like Kyle Farnsworth to come to Texas.
I can understand passing on lefty bullpen arms like Will Ohman.
I generally think paying "market value" on the free agent market for relievers is bad business.
However...the Royals signed Juan Cruz on February 28. That was after the Rangers knew Joaquin Benoit and Eric Hurley were going to be out most of, if not all of, 2009.
Cruz signed a 2 year, $6 million deal with Kansas City, with a 3rd year option. $2.25 million this year, $3.25 million next year, a $4 million option in 2011 with a $500K buyout.
If Cruz's arm doesn't fall off, that's a steal for Kansas City.
And Cruz would probably be (as I said back in February) the best reliever in ae Ranger bullpen that looks like the biggest weakness on the club.
Jim Reeves said back in February the Rangers were interested in Cruz, but simply couldn't afford Cruz, and weren't willing to add any salary. However, they were apparently willing to add salary -- a bunch of it -- for Ben Sheets, and pay him in 2009 about as much as Cruz will make all three years of his deal if his option is exercised.
So here's what I want to know...why isn't Juan Cruz a Ranger? Did the front office want him, but Hicks didn't want to pay? Or did the front office feel that they were just as well served with the Turnbow/Eyre/Donnelly grab-bag, and that adding Juan Cruz wouldn't have been a significant improvement to the team?
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and then let them get rougher throughout the season....
Support your local Scott Feldman
"Josh Hamilton doesn't act like he is Josh Hamilton. He acts like a guy who knows a guy who knows a guy named Josh Hamilton."
by Martijn1309 on Apr 13, 2009 11:59 AM CDT up reply actions
Exactly
The beta on these guys (Cruz included…noticed you didn’t mention his BB%, Adam) is just stupid.
"[Font} doesn't turn 19 until the end of May and his heater can already hit 99 on the gun. That's baseball porn." - Jason Parks
by hightowersmith on Apr 13, 2009 12:04 PM CDT up reply actions
I don't like Cruz that much
but at that price and given the shape of the Rangers bullpen this offseason I don’t understand not signing him.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
I'm having flashbacks...
to 2002.
I wake up at night, in a cold sweat, shouting the names of Dan Miceli, John Rocker, Rudy Seanez, Todd Van Poppel, and Hideki Irabu.
by ghostofErikThompson on Apr 13, 2009 12:02 PM CDT reply actions
That is my thought
This club got burned very badly by Juan Cruz types earlier this decade. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Hicks looked at Juan Cruz and thought Todd Van Poppel.
That said, Cruz isn’t Van Poppel. And the baseball guys, Nolan and JD, should have been able to convince Hicks of that.
My real theory: Hicks said to JD “Is Juan Cruz all that this team needs to be competitive,” and JD didn’t want to say yes, because it really isn’t true. This team needed more than Juan Cruz alone to be assured of a playoff contender. And it would have been dumb for JD to rest his future on the arm of a bullpen guy. I think JD could have gotten him, but if he flopped (or simply wasn’t enough), JD’s head would be on the line.
And I can’t blame JD for that.
I highly doubt
That all free agents have to pass the “is this the one guy we need to be competitive?” test.
by brettgardner on Apr 13, 2009 12:21 PM CDT up reply actions
I'd generally agree
but with Hicks having a tight wallet this offseason, I wouldn’t be surprised if he asked that question.
And frankly, I don’t think its a bad question to ask. If a guy like Cruz increases your playoff probability from 4% to 8%, is that worth paying $3 million? If you have the money, then of course. But if you don’t really have it, and it’d require digging up the cash somewhere to get it, then I can fully understand the hesitation.
Perception
Cruz would have cost $$ but not put butts in the seats. Sheets, on the other hand, was worth the cost because he would have been a flashy signing.
Granted, wins brings the fans to the ballpark and Cruz could have helped that. But I think it all came down to who Hicks thought would be the bigger bang for his buck.
Remember Red, hope is a good thing. Maybe the best of things. And no good thing ever dies.
I think this is pretty close to the truth.
It probably would’ve taken someone of Sheets talent-level and reputation to get Hicks to bust out the checkbook. And signing a starter has a bigger placebo effect on the casual fan than signing a reliever.
“Texas signed a starting pitcher? Hey, they’re finally spending on pitching!”
“Texas signed a reliever? Great, he can come in after our starters lose the game!”
by MeanMr.Mustard on Apr 13, 2009 12:30 PM CDT up reply actions
if that is the case
then we will never field a winning team.
What is this, Horseville? Because I'm surrounded by naysayers.
True
And I could very well be too simplistic in my analysis. I’m guessing, hoping, that Hicks doesn’t say to himself “Cruz? Who?” and “Sheets. Heard of him. That’d be cool.”
And like I said, butts in the seat make money not the opinions of Joe Jackoff posting at DMN. Consider if Cruz was here, got the 8th done yesterday, and the Rangers are above .500 versus a crushing meltdown.
Remember Red, hope is a good thing. Maybe the best of things. And no good thing ever dies.
I wasn't necessarily saying this is always the case.
I just think in this particular instance, with the economy being what it is, it would’ve taken a big name who was guaranteed to put butts in the seat every 5th game for Hicks to spend. Especially given he already said he wanted to cut payroll heading into this year.
by MeanMr.Mustard on Apr 13, 2009 6:58 PM CDT up reply actions
And, if I'm Nolan Ryan or Jon Daniels
and I know that it’s going to take some convincing to get Hicks to spend money on someone, I’d rather use my negotiating clout on a Ben Sheets than a Juan Cruz.
by MeanMr.Mustard on Apr 13, 2009 7:00 PM CDT up reply actions
I think it was more about the pick
I don’t think we wanted to give up the draft pick or something in trade to sign, even a very good, reliever.
What do voluntary mean?
if they didn't sign Cruz
because they didn’t want to give up the draft pick, then this team has fallen too much in love with the “strong farm” idea at the expense of building a good major league team. It is only a matter of time before they start hanging minor league banners at the ballpark to make up for the void of major league banners.
What is this, Horseville? Because I'm surrounded by naysayers.
If they didn't sign Cruz only because of not wanting to give up the draft pick
Then they are stupid
I learned from ranger history long ago, you never give up draft picks for relievers
never ever ever.
mormons stole me and held me against my will with Oklahoma beer and 12+ hour work days.
I learned from Ranger history long ago, our pitching is terrible
terrible errible errible
I hope that's not the case
A 2nd round pick for Juan Cruz is a small price to pay, particularly when you are getting him for below market value.
If nothing else, you could turn around this offseason, after you’ve gotten one cheap year from him, and move him to another team for a better prospect than you’d likely get from a 2nd round pick. And you wouldn’t have to pay the signing bonus.
by Adam J. Morris on Apr 13, 2009 12:30 PM CDT up reply actions
when was the last time the rangers signed a FA when they had to give up a pick and didnt regret it?
mormons stole me and held me against my will with Oklahoma beer and 12+ hour work days.
yeah
I think that avoiding a FA because of a 2nd round pick (which always flop for Texas anyway) is the worst reason.
Better reasons, in order of how worrisome:
1> Team looked at Cruz and didn’t like something fundamental about him – hard to argue with this
2> Money was tight and the team didn’t think it had a shot this year – disappointing, but understandable
3> Hicks simply didn’t have the money – worrisome, but shows realism
4> Team thought the bullpen was sufficient as is – pretty dumb
3>
Agree across the board with that
Worrying about losing a 2nd shouldn’t even be a factor, just consider it as a free pick acquired for MB right??
The Texas Rangers have been synonymous with explosive firepower ever since they emptied 130 rounds into Bonnie Parker and Clyde Barrow in 1934. - Alyssa Milano
Cue andy seiler to tell us how valuable draft picks are
"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan
by Dirk Diggler on Apr 13, 2009 12:36 PM CDT up reply actions
Heh
I wasn’t in favor of signing Cruz more because of financial flexibility. He’s worth less than 1 win over any of our current relievers both this year and next, and would be the difference between signing a $6.75 million starting pitcher next offseason and a $10 million one. That’s a huge difference in terms of talent.
I just always wonder about
the idea of signing bullpen arms. Yes it is a major weakness this year. Yes he was the best second tier reliever on the market.
I just think we have gotten into way too much trouble paying out for everything but the flat out best relievers out there. The lost draft pick is just adding into what I think is a bad situation.
What do voluntary mean?
I'm kind of with you
there are very few bullpen arms that are sure things. Most arms in bullpens are there because they are too erratic to be starters.
"The idea that the Rangers are going to be a solid contender for a number of years is a fantasy." - Adam J. Morris
it was a 2nd rd pick
historically, how many 2nd rd picks end up helping the team as much as cruz would have over the next two years?
anyway cruz would have probably gotten a pick of some kind back at the end of his contract if offered arb
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Apr 13, 2009 12:55 PM CDT up reply actions
Signing Juan Cruz would have made sense but
the Rangers didn’t do it. Let’s move on. That ship has sailed. We need to fix this bullpen and it won’t happen with Cruz.
I am curious why we didn’t try to get Gaudin, but again our bullpen needs to improve and it looks like it has to improve from within.
"Take me out to the ball game, Take me out with the crowd. Buy me some peanuts and cracker jacks, I don't care if I never get back, Let me root, root, root for the RANGERS, If they don't win it's a shame. For it's one, two, three strikes, your out, At the old ball game."
It isn't just
That Cruz isn’t here, it’s the thought process behind that decision that Adam’s talking about. So we can’t just “move on” when moving on means more of the same flawed decision-making and evaluation.
by brettgardner on Apr 13, 2009 12:25 PM CDT up reply actions
I suspect Eyre replaces Mad Dog or Rupe this week
And he and Jennings become the primarily late inning RH setup guys.
by Adam J. Morris on Apr 13, 2009 12:32 PM CDT up reply actions
too far
"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan
by Dirk Diggler on Apr 13, 2009 12:37 PM CDT up reply actions
♫ So I queef…. Yeaa-aah…. Just queefin’ on the down low ♫
by oc on Apr 14, 2009 2:28 AM CDT up reply actions
x
"My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is,
‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all.
So I’m not going to say anything at all.
Is my mother the greatest or what?"
- Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, after signing Ichiro to a $90 million contract
after Nippert's last outing
i have a feeling his rehab assignment goes a little longer. Eyre is the better bet to come up. We have some very viable options in the minors, but we don’t have a ton of flexability because so few of our relievers have options.
What is this, Horseville? Because I'm surrounded by naysayers.
Well, if you are not going to use these relievers because you don't trust them
why does it matter if they have options or not
if this team
ends up needing to trade a legit prospect for a bullpen arm who will almost assuredly be inferior to Cruz, then shit will hit the fan.
What is this, Horseville? Because I'm surrounded by naysayers.
x
it’s the thought process behind that decision that Adam’s talking about.
Yep. Like the Galarraga decision…I don’t agree, and it didn’t work out, but I understand the thought process involved and think it is not unreasonable.
I don’t understand the thought process involved here, though.
by Adam J. Morris on Apr 13, 2009 12:32 PM CDT up reply actions
Cruz and Gaudin aren't in the same league
Gaudin is a fly ball pitcher with low K totals and a poor K:BB ratio. Cruz walks his share as well, but his K rate gives him a lot more wiggle room. Any improvement at this point will come from within.
People around here don’t take too kindly to bitching about the poor decisions this mgmt/ownership group has made in the past, so I’m not sure this thread will bring much to the table. We don’t know if JD was pounding his fist trying to get Hicks to pony up, or if they really all thought their rag tag bunch was going to suffice this year, and without knowing that, it is hard to point fingers.
What is this, Horseville? Because I'm surrounded by naysayers.
and Gaudin could be had for much less
and is still an improvement over most of what we have. Knee-jerking is we are all about because through history we have had no confidence in FO decisions. Confidence is built with winning, and I hope we can get some confidence from our FO. I’m pretty sure I’ll never have confidence in RW.
"Take me out to the ball game, Take me out with the crowd. Buy me some peanuts and cracker jacks, I don't care if I never get back, Let me root, root, root for the RANGERS, If they don't win it's a shame. For it's one, two, three strikes, your out, At the old ball game."
Gaudin
Supposedly, his velocity was way off this spring.
by Adam J. Morris on Apr 13, 2009 12:35 PM CDT up reply actions
huh? LSB bitches about mgmt/ownership problems all the time
"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan
by Dirk Diggler on Apr 13, 2009 12:38 PM CDT up reply actions
Cruz and Gaudin aren’t in the same league
Just for some reference, Gaudin is projected to be better than Cruz in terms of WARP by PECOTA for each and every year through 2015. I think it’s safe to say that because of Cruz’s walk rate, he’s not even near being a top-tier setup reliever. When healthy, Gaudin’s the better pitcher. That’s a big “when” clause, but keep in mind that Gaudin costs $400,000 and is still eligible to be kept for 2010, since he’s at 4 years of service time.
good question
I hope you get an answer.
"Was this really necsarry?" - cowpoke/hurler hurley
Does it come back to 09 vs 10?
If the team didnt think they’d be competitive in 09 with cruz or without cruz maybe the difference between .500 and a couple games below .500 then why spend the money on him? If JD thinks they’ll have enough bullpen arms to compete in 2010 without spending the money on cruz, or they can get someone better next offseason then I think it makes at least a little bit of sense to hold off on signing him. That being said I am very against the idea of punting an entire year and not at least trying to make it to the playoffs a year ahead of schedule, but I wouldnt be that surprised if thats the thinking of the front office…
Hope not...
Since they would have signed him for more than just 1 year, that’s just one less piece they needed to grow.
The Texas Rangers have been synonymous with explosive firepower ever since they emptied 130 rounds into Bonnie Parker and Clyde Barrow in 1934. - Alyssa Milano
yeah...
but if the bullpen isnt as glaring of a need in 2010 because of farm arms ready to step up, or better options available next offseason (not sure if thats the case) then it would make at least some sense to save the money this year and spend it more efficiently next year
Unfair
When it comes to payroll and the ability to close the deal on free market talent, how can you ever expect this team to compete with the likes of the Kansas City Royals?
"Was this really necsarry?" - cowpoke/hurler hurley
by trza on Apr 13, 2009 12:36 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
i know
them and their big market mentality, signing all the good FAs, eating payroll like its nothing
shakes fist in direction of KC
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Apr 13, 2009 12:57 PM CDT up reply actions
i'ma have to agree
i think the 2nd rounder is money with the way JD drafts, but i really didn’t think our BP would be this bad…
Although, i think our better RPs are in AAA…
Stability is key, and JD is a Beast.
zywica for life...
What's the over/under for Cruz references this year?
2009?
"The idea that the Rangers are going to be a solid contender for a number of years is a fantasy." - Adam J. Morris
I'm actually hoping for Cruz to go CJ Wilson on everyone
so I don’t have to see a weekly post by AJM wondering why the Rangers didn’t sign him.
OT: Beckett
Damn, did anyone see what he did yesterday? Dood needs to be suspended for a while…
Stability is key, and JD is a Beast.
zywica for life...
no harm no foul
"My mother always taught me that if the only thing you have to say is,
‘(Expletive) Dave Samson,’ then don’t say anything at all.
So I’m not going to say anything at all.
Is my mother the greatest or what?"
- Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, after signing Ichiro to a $90 million contract
"throwing at"
because technically it didnt happen at all (if you just looked at the box score)
…what are you going to do? become the NFL?
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Apr 13, 2009 12:58 PM CDT up reply actions
Cruz missing piece?
Does anyone really think that Cruz is the missing piece to get this team into the playoffs? I don’t. And I don’t believe JD and Nolan think so either.
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
"missing piece to get this team into the playoffs"
Are we supposed to wait until we only need one more piece to make the playoffs before we can improve the team?
Doctor please. Some more of these.
Exactly
We will be waiting years if that is the case. The Rangers could have signed Cruz and Ohman. How much better would the pen look with those two in it?
Keith Law on Greg Golson, "He's similiar to Cameron and Hunter in that all three are black."
http://tinyurl.com/ranger-rage
piece not pieces
I agree, this team needs to add more than one good bullpen arm.
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
Cruz -- the "thinking man's bullpen pitcher"
"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan
by Dirk Diggler on Apr 13, 2009 1:11 PM CDT up reply actions
I think this was Hicks driven
He said to JD and Nolan do you want Sheets or Cruz? Then after what happened with Sheets Hicks probably decided to save the money and wait until mid summer and sign Sheets then. JMO
Keith Law on Greg Golson, "He's similiar to Cameron and Hunter in that all three are black."
http://tinyurl.com/ranger-rage
So much disloyalty in this topic.
You guys need to just cheer for and support the Rangers in all their decisions.
He's not a Ranger
so we should stop worrying about it. If Moscoso or Diamond come up in a month and are lights out in the 7th and 8th innings than people will be glad we didnt shell out money on Cruz.
Thatta Boy!
That’s being loyal, unlike that traitorous Morris fellow.
"The idea that the Rangers are going to be a solid contender for a number of years is a fantasy." - Adam J. Morris
thats a hugehugehuge if
and in reality its a probably not
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Apr 13, 2009 4:51 PM CDT up reply actions
empty golf shirt had to have a hand in this
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Apr 13, 2009 4:51 PM CDT up reply actions
Cruz isn't worth even an extra win over our current relievers.
So why ruin your financial flexibility by signing him? He’ll maybe get us from 78 to 79 wins with a great year, but who cares? You lose the money you invest in him in terms of what you can spend next offseason, a 2nd round draft pick, and maybe fall a draft slot for the 2010 draft, all while not even moving in the standings. There’s no real tangible positive to signing him.
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