Early Season Prospecting

Looking to get a jump on who the next great Rangers prospect might be?  Checking the myriad minor league reports from Spring Training and the month-to-month statistical progressions of players in 2008 (and 2007 if available) are great ways to identify candidates to be this year's Derek Holland or Jose Vallejo.  But equally telling is what the Rangers' minor league brain-trust thinks about a player.  You can figure out what the team thinks based upon where they assign players at the beginning of the year and how aggressively players are promoted during the year.  Prospects who are assigned or promoted to leagues where they will compete against much older players have an uncanny knack for becoming productive major leaguers.  In fact, I argue that the single most telling statistic in predicting whether a minor league player will progress to the major leagues is Age Relative to League (ARL).

Anecdotal Support for the Value of ARL

You can use Baseball Reference to sort minor league players at any given level using any statistical measure that the site maintains.  When you do that, you'll note that the most effective way to identify future major leaguers among the players in A+, AA, or AAA for almost any given year is to sort based upon age.  Sorting A+ players in 2003 using various stats produces the following lists:

Top 5 Starting Pitchers

by Age              by K/BB             by K/9IP             by WHIP             by ERA

G Miller             D Bush             C Hamels           C Young            G Mata

Z Greinke         C Young            S Kazmir            Z Greinke          Z Greinke

E Santana        G Bruso            R Hannaman    G Mata               C Young

S Kazmir           L DiNardo        R Currier             L Dinardo         B Borner

C Hamels         E Ulloa             J Dominguez      N Ungs             M Peterson

Top 5 Position Players

by Age              by OPS               by BB/K               by OBP               by AVG

J Guzman        C Shelton           J Reed                C Shelton           J Weber

A Marte             D Clark               C Kotchman       K Thompson     C Shelton         

D Navarro        J Weber              D Kelly                 J Reed               G Jacobs

S Santos          G Jacobs           H Bledsoe          C Kotchman      C Kotchman

J Loney             D McPherson    K Thompson      T Self                  J Kroeger

ARL becomes ridiculously effective when you use a performance stat or two to rank players who are young for their level in a given year. Take 2002 and 2003 as examples:

In 2002, the eight starting pitchers who logged at least 20 innings in A+, were 20 or less, struck out more than 8 batters per 9 innings, and had an ERA under 4 were Jeremy Bonderman, Travis Blackley, Adam Wainwright, Fernando Cabrera, Dustin Moseley, Rich Harden, Oliver Perez, and Francisco Cruceta.  In 2003, thirteen pitchers exceeded the same thresholds (Greg Miller, Zach Greinke, Ervin Santana, Emiliano Fruto, Scott Kazmir, Cole Hamels, Ricky Nolasco, Renyel Pinto, Blake Hawksworth, and Michael Hinckley).  More than 50% of these pitchers have pitched at the major league level and 33% have or appear likely to appear in an all-star game.

And the phenomenon is not restricted to pitchers.  The list of 18-20 yo position players with at least 100 ABs of 800 OPS hitting in A+ in 2002 comprised Jose Lopez, Jose Reyes, James Loney, Grady Sizemore, Dave Krynzel, Will Smith, Corey Hart, and Rocco Baldelli.  The 2003 list was Dioner Navarro, Andy Marte, Franklin Gutierrez, Shin-Soo Choo, Joe Mauer, Justin Huber, Josh Barfield, Josh Kroeger, Jeff Mathis, Jayson Nix, David Wright, Edwin Encarnacion, and Casey Kotchman. More than 75% of these players have accumulated significant playing time at the major league level and more than 33% have or appear destined to appear in an all-star game or two.

Minor League Progression as a Function of ARL

According to Baseball Reference, the average ages for players in 2008 in the leagues where Rangers prospects will be playing this year were:

Arizona Rookie League (ARL) - 20.1

Northwest League (NWL) - 21.2

South Atlantic League (SAL) - 21.7

California League (CAL) - 22.7

Texas League - 24.2

Pacific Coast League (PCL) - 26.9

Using the age cut-offs below allows you to identify the players who are among the youngest 10-15% in each of the indicated leagues.

A  - 19 and under

A+ - 20 and under

AA - 21 and under

AAA - 22 and under

The majority of the players (~65%) for each level are typically found in the following age ranges:

A  - 20-23

A+ - 21-24

AA - 22-26

AAA - 23-29

The remaining minor leaguers exceed the age ranges listed above and comprise the "old for league" group.

Using these cutoffs to classify players for any given league in any given year and then tracking the progress of the players reveals that the development rates for young players are dramatically accelerated relative to players who are age-appropriate or old for their leagues.  As an example, I used the 3 year progress of the 1259 prospects and non-prospects who played in A or A+ in 2002.  By 2004, approximately 30% of the players (209 pitchers and 180 hitters) had advanced at least two levels.  By 2008, 10% of the 1259 players (74 hitters and 52 pitchers) had received more than a token number of innings or at bats at the major league level.  As can be seen in the table below, the statistical profiles for the young players are dramatically different than the older players.

Pitchers

                                       Young for League       Age Appropriate           Old for League

Total Players                             85                                 354                               195

% advancing 1 level/yr           71%                               29%                              23%

# w/50+ ML IP                           34                                 14                                   4

Hitters

                                         Young for League     Age Appropriate        Old for League

Total Players                             84                                 359                               179

% advancing 1 level/yr            60%                              23%                              21%

# w/100+ ML AB's                     36                                 30                                   8

Young for their league players are almost three times as likely as other players to advance by at least one level per year and more than 10 times as likely to get to the major leagues.  Although young for their league players accounted for only 13% of all of the players considered, they produced 56% of the players who are now playing in the majors.  Incredibly, more than 40% of the players who were young for their league in 2002 have reached the majors and received significant playing time. 

Worth noting is that the young-for-their-league players rarely ranked at the top of their respective leagues in major offensive or pitching categories.  However, the young for their league players tended to improve statistically relative to their peers as they advanced through the minor leagues.  Most striking was the observation that the young hitters who advanced at least one level per year had an average OPS improvement of 17 points per league.  That doesn't sound like a lot until you realize that, according to MinorLeagueSplits (http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/mlecalc.html), an average minor league player who is not improving should experience an approximately 50-60 point drop in OPS for each level that he moves up.  That means that the young prospects are improving their performance by ~70 OPS points per year.  In contrast, age-appropriate and old hitters who advanced at least one level per year between 2002 and 2004 saw an average decrease of 10 OPS points for each level that they advanced which means that they are losing nearly 30 OPS points per year to their younger teammates.  Assuming it takes a player four years to go from low A to the majors, young prospects, on average, see a nearly 300 point improvement in their OPS skills whereas the remaining players who similarly advance the four levels to the majors improve their OPS by less than 200 points.  Worth noting is that these figures don't even account for the overwhelming majority of age appropriate players who stall out before reaching the major leagues 

Why Should You Care?

The Rangers have recently assigned prospects to the various teams that comprise their minor league system.  Those prospects who are young for the league to which they were assigned represent the guys worth monitoring in the coming year. 

Oklahoma

Neftali Feliz (20) and Derek Holland (22) - If they remain healthy, both pitchers will contribute to future Ranger teams.  In the meantime, both pitchers will spend time in the PCL where Feliz will be the youngest starting pitcher and Holland will be among the five youngest. 

Key stat to track - K/BB ratio - The Top10 starting pitchers in 2008 averaged a K/BB ratio of 3.5 as AAA pitchers prior to making their ML debuts.  Holland's K/BB ratio in 2008 was 4.0 so he appears to be poised to hit that threshold in his first go at AAA.  Feliz will likely need to see an improvement in his walk rate from the 3.6 BB/9IP that he posted in 2008 to significantly improve his 2.9 K/BB.

Frisco

Kasey Kiker (21) and Omar Poveda (21) - Although it seems that they've been around forever, LHP Kiker and RHP Poveda are among the youngest pitchers in the Texas League.  Kiker's year in Bakersfield (4.73 ERA, 8.2 K/9IP, 2.7 BB/9IP, .292 BAA) hurt his prospect status perhaps as much as anyone in the Rangers' system last year (Top 5 prospect before/Top 20 prospect after 2008 season).  Poveda's numbers in Bakersfield (4.47 ERA, 9.7 K/9IP, 4 BB/9IP, .241 BAA) were only slightly better than Kiker's, but he was credited with developing a curveball during the season that nicely complements his low 90's fastball and plus change-up.  Both pitchers received very favorable reviews for their work in Spring Training this year.

Key stat to track - ERA - Though ERA is often ridiculed as an archaic stat (I happen to disagree, but I'll save that for another FanPost), it is important for Poveda and Kiker to show that they have mastered the fine art of run prevention. The difference in average ERA between the Cal League and Texas League is not as big as you would think (4.51 vs 4.36 in 2008), so a sub-4 ERA from either prospect would indicate a significant improvement in performance. 

Marcus Lemon (20) - Lost among the Rangers many prospects, Lemon was among the most productive middle-infielders in the minors until a dismal August turned a great season (315/410/460/870) into a very good one (298/376/437/813).  In fact, among the seven middle infield prospects ranked among BA's Top 100 in 2009, Lemon trailed only Jason Donald (888 OPS as a 23 yo in AA) as a hitter in 2008.  Lemon will apparently remain at SS for his age 20 season in Frisco where he will be among the youngest position players in AA. 

Key stat to track - OPS - The biggest jump in the minors (A+ to AA) has been handled with style by many of the recent Rangers hitting prospects (Borbon, Vallejo, Boggs, Davis, Ramirez, and Duran to name a few).  Given his mature approach at the plate and his developing gap power, expect Lemon to come through with a 750-800 OPS in 2009 and make it increasingly difficult to ignore him as a legitimate prospect.

Manny Pina (21) - Defensively gifted catcher showed improvement with the bat in 2008, (267/317/360/677), but opposing pitchers no doubt continue to view his spot in the line-up as a reprieve. 

Key stat to track - OBP - An IsoP of less than 100 suggests that Pina is unlikely to develop power.  Because he is a good contact hitter, it seems possible that Pina could take more pitches without significantly increasing his K-rate and decreasing his batting average.  If taking more pitches increased Pina's walk-rate, then a corresponding increase in OBP to something along the lines of .350 could help cement Pina's standing as "the future backup catcher for the Rangers." 

Bakersfield

Blake Beavan (20) and Michael Main (20) - The two RH power pitchers had somewhat disappointing seasons in 2008.  Although his ERA (2.37), walk-rate (1.5 BB/9IP), BAA (.234), and K/BB (3.65) were outstanding for a 19 yo debuting in a full season league, Beavan's K-rate (5.4 K/9IP) didn't come close to what you expect from a top pitching prospect.  Main lost time due to a rib injury that limited him to 58.2 IP.  If Beavan and Main can survive the pitcher killer that is Bakersfield and the Cal League, then look for the two pitchers to be viewed as the next saviors for the pitching starved Rangers.

Key stats to track - K-rate (Beavan) and K/BB (Main) - Reports indicate that Beavan needs to improve his slider and change-up.  If successful, Beavan should see an increase in strikeouts.  If he can push his k-rate above the 1K/IP that most prospectors seek, then look for Beavan's name to begin appearing in discussions of top pitching prospects.  Unlike Beavan, Main's stuff has never been questioned.  Better control would allow Main to improve the one statistic that has been borderline thus far in his minor league career (career 3.4 BB/9IP) and force opposing hitters to hit his apparently lethal three pitch repertoire.

Engel Beltre (19) - Assigned to Bakersfield after spending his 18 yo season as the youngest starting position player in the Midwest League, Beltre received rave reviews during Spring Training.  Despite leading the MWL in hits, his 2008 stat-line (283/308/403/711) was interesting only in regard to revealing his weaknesses and showing that he can be a productive player despite them. 

Key stat to track - Walk rate - My favorite comp for Beltre is Ruben Mateo, not so much because I believe it, but because it allows me to understand what people might see when they watch Beltre play.  Mateo put up a 260/309/401/710 line as an 18 yo in A-ball that is reminiscent of Beltre's season in 2008.  Mateo put up a 314/359/509/868 as a 19 yo in High A that launched his life as a prospect.  If Beltre can learn to walk, then perhaps he will explode just like Mateo did in 1997.

Jose Felix (20) - In his US debut last year in the MWL, the RH catcher got off to a hot start at the plate and then settled in for a solid, though unspectacular line of 262/300/305/605.  Felix isn't at the same level as Ramirez, Teagarden, and Saltalamacchia, but he joins Pina, de los Santos, and Telis to provide the Rangers with a second tier of catching prospects that is equal to many team's first tier.

Key stat to track - SLG - In 302 AB's in 2008, Felix had 10 doubles and 1 HR.  Until he shows some ability to hit for power, it is unlikely that he will progress much further in the system.  Fortunately, Felix has gone from an extreme pitcher's league to an extreme hitter's league, so this could be a great opportunity for him to show a bit of pop.

Hickory

Martin Perez (18) - Perez' standing as a prospect derives more from scouting reports and his ability to compete against much older competitors than from the stat line that he posted as the youngest starter in the NWL in 2008 (3.65 ERA, 7.7 K/9IP, 4.1 BB/9IP, .274 BAA).  ST 2009 was filled with stories of Perez' exploits, so expect big things from the diminutive lefty as he pitches as one of the youngest starters in the SAL.

Key stat to track - K/BB ratio - Young pitchers tend to maintain or even improve their K-rates as they advance from one level to the next, so it would not be a surprise if Perez pushed his k-rate into the 9K/9IP range.  Improved control would go a long way toward bringing Perez into the 3 K/BB that you like to see in a starting pitching prospect. 

Wilmer Font (18) - Scouting reports from Spring Training indicate that the big RHP has improved his breaking ball and change-up.  If he can control these along with his mid- to high-90's fastball, then look for Font to post crazy numbers in Hickory and ascend prospect rankings in a way that is reminiscent of Feliz in 2008.   

Key stat to track - IP - Although he remains very young for his league, it is important for Font to begin piling up competitive innings so that he can learn what works and what he needs to improve.  If Font can pitch 60-80 innings in 2009, then he will be set up for ~100 innings in Bakersfield/Frisco as a 20 yo in 2010 and in the picture for big league innings in 2011 or 2012.

Joseph Ortiz (18) - The second youngest member of the Crawdads, the LHP features a 90-92 MPH fastball and a very good slider.  Pitching out of the bullpen for Clinton in 2008, Ortiz posted a 1.97 ERA, 7 K/9IP, 4.5 BB/9IP, and a .204 BAA in 32 innings spanning 23 games.  

Key stat to track - K/9IP - Ortiz was ridiculously young for full season baseball last year.  He is among the youngest players in the SAL again this year.  Repeating the level means that he will need to improve his performance or risk becoming even more lost in the Rangers prospect shuffle.  Moving his k-rate to above 1 hitter per inning would certainly strengthen Ortiz' chances of being in the discussion of intriguing left-handed pitchers in the Rangers' system. 

Wilfredo Boscan (19) - Although a year older than Perez, Boscan's assignment to Hickory will have him competing against players who will on average be 4 years older than him.  Boscan's stats in 2008 were spectacularly balanced (3.12 ERA, 9 K/9IP, 1.3 BB/9IP, 1.5 GO/FO).  Noteworthy among the many stories in Spring Training was that Boscan's fastball was touching 93 MPH.  That is reminiscent of ST reports in 2008 that indicated that Derek Holland had experienced a slight uptick in velocity after posting an impressively balanced stat line in the NWL in 2007.

Key stat to track - BAA - The lone blemish on Boscan's 2008 stat line was BAA (.251).  A BAA of .225 would likely indicate that Boscan's stuff was improving and would go a long way to preparing him for time in Bakersfield.

Carlos Pimental (19) - Another teenager in the Hickory starting rotation, the RHP comes off a successful NWL season (65 IP, 3.31 ERA, 7.4 K/9IP, 4.3 BB/9IP, .204 BAA).  In their discussion of the Top20 NWL prospects after last season, BA mentioned that several scouts were very excited by Pimental's potential.  Improved control and command of his low-90's fastball would go a long way toward cementing Pimental's prospect status.

Key stat to track - K/9IP - Pimental's K-rate in 2008 fell dramatically from the 12.5 K/9IP that he enjoyed in the ARL in 2007.  If Pimental can re-discover his strike-out pitch, then he will get more mentions when prospect gurus run down the list of interesting Rangers prospects.

Clark Murphy (19) - The left-handed 1st baseman hit 358/435/526/962 in 95 Arizona Rookie League at bats after signing last year.  Murphy's k-rate (18%), walk-rate (11%), and XBH rate (11%) were all very impressive for a high school slugger in his first year.  Murphy could prove to be the Crawdads' best hitter in 2009.

Key stat to track - OPS.  It can't be easy to be a 1B in a system where your OPS will likely be compared to what is being posted by Davis, Smoak, and Moreland.  Even worse is being in a league with an average OPS (706) that was almost fifty points lower in 2008 than the leagues where the other prospects are playing (CAL: 752 OPS, TL: 754 OPS).  Although it came in a small sample size, Murphy's impressive first year OPS did happen in a league with an average OPS that was close to that of SAL (721 vs 706).

Leonel de los Santos (19) - The smallish (170 lbs) catcher gets raves for his defense. His work with the bat in the Arizona Rookie League was uninspiring (258/299/358/657), though his contact rate was solid (22 SO in 168 plate appearances).  Santos' profile is reminiscent of Manny Pina.

Key stat to track - OBP.  Strong defensive catchers who can make a contribution on offense are extremely valuable.  Given his relatively small size, it seems unlikely that de los Santos will develop into a power hitter.  An OBP above .350 would go a long way toward making the catcher an asset in the bottom third of a line-up and more than an after-thought when baseball experts talk about the Rangers' depth at catcher.

A Promotion will Make These Players Young for Their League

Matt West (20)

Fabio Castillo (20)

Kennil Gomez (21)

Tommy Hunter (22)

Justin Smoak (22)

Jose Vallejo (22)

John Whittleman (22)