And CO/ARZ play in the 115 to 120 range? So yes, but 107 is still significant. I believe you take the square root of a park factor to adjust OPS. So, sqrt(1.07) is 1.034. So a .700 OPS is neutralized to .677 OPS in a neutral park. That’s about half a win of value over a full season, per player.

Stop using home road splits. Texas helps hitters. Performing worse at home than on the road could just as easily mean that his numbers "should" have been even worse, but were buoyed by the ballpark.

I guess he is saying that if the home numbers are higher, his numbers are inflated because Arlington is such a hitter friendly park. If his road numbers are higher, he obviously sucks because Arlington buoyed his numbers over what they should be, so again drop his overall numbers to adjust.

To me, that makes no sense.

Include a full team, plus their opponents, over a number of seasons, then regress a bit.

There are arguments that certain players take advantage of certain parks more than other players, but that’s only important answering some questions, and there are much better ways of addressing that question that a single season’s splits.

Chris Davis will hit at least 330 with 66HR and 211RBI while also playing gold glove defense and kissing babies in his campaign to become Texas Governor in ’10

With park factors.

But Ichiro had an OPS last year of .747. He had an OBP only 50 points higher than his batting average, and a SLG only 76 points higher. 33 extra base hits, 180 singles, 51 walks.

If you’re batting .360, then yeah, single all day long. If you’re batting .310, you’d better be hitting doubles or homers or adding some walks to that line, otherwise you’re a pretty league average player. Maybe not in style, but in offensive production.

Its not a productive line. And yeah, the guy who can hit a single when needed is great when you have the World Baseball Classic scenario. But most of the time, he’s not up in the 9th inning, down by a run, with a guy on second. Almost every other time, he’s up there alone, with no one on.

Walks are worth about .3 runs better than the average outcome, while singles are worth about .5 runs above average. Outs are about -.3 runs. So, relative to an out, singles are .8 runs better, while walks are .6 runs better, meaning walks have about 75% of the value of a single, when the alternative is an out.

Walks and singles are not the same thing

Agree.

They are nowhere close.

Disagree.

And I don’t make evaluations based on single, uncommon situations which are not in a player’s design.

BT, you check that?

But ok.

For the record, “naysayer” does not mean unholy bastard who hates chris davis and should be banished from the Earth. It means someone who doesn’t particularly believe in him relative to what others are thinking. Essentially laughing at those who believe he can repeat would seem to fall into that category.

I don’t think pablo sandoval is going to live up to the hype. Now Im a naysayer to!

at least the weighted mean is.

…are not terribly reliable.

What does it say if a player’s BABIP goes down and AVG goes up?

Where would you guess 850 would have ranked him among regulars?

Given that, it’s strange to react to Davis in the top 5 the way Law did.

and i responded to it last time. why do you believe that guy instead of padilla?

I don’t think its nearly so strong an assertion that KLaw can just assume as fact that Padilla killed somebody.

and I’d accept Keith’s translation as well.

to overreact to tom hicks quotes?

I’m shocked.