Padilla Through Pitch f/x
by Mister Naxal on Apr 20, 2009 7:29 PM CDT
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PrintNo one is happier than I am that it's getting easier than ever to grab Pitch f/x data; when we see the result of pitching performances visualized it can at least let us know what it looks like when a pitcher is going strong versus what it looks like when a pitcher is in trouble.
The pitcher I'm looking at today is Vicente Padilla. Through three starts, Padilla has been meh once, bad once and awful once. In his bad and awful starts, he has looked like he is one mistake pitch away from being in Josh Rupe territory.
On May 7, 2008, Padilla had one of this best starts of the season against the Mariners with a 7 inning, 2 hit effort with no earned runs and 8 strikeouts. Padilla threw 91 pitches, 57 of them for strikes. Fast forward to yesterday against the Royals where Padilla scattered 8 hits over 5 innings giving up 5 earned runs while striking out 5 batters. Padilla threw 94 pitches, 58 of them for strikes.
I accept that it is somewhat unfair to take an exemplar from last season and compare it to one of three starts this season, but I think when you see the graphs, you'll see what the big difference between Padilla in May 2008 and Padilla in April 2009: Velocity.
Padilla release point chart, May 7, 2008 vs. Seattle:
Padilla release point chart, April 19, 2009 vs. Kansas City:
Not only do Padilla's pitch-strike numbers match one another almost perfectly, but his release point for his pitches is also a very close match between yesterday's shelling and last May's gem, although there's more horizontal deviation in yesterday's release points than in the tight cluster from last May's game. This next series of graphs shows the bad news for Padilla and for those of us in the seats and watching at home:
Padilla velocity all game pitch graph, May 7, 2008 vs. Seattle:
Padilla velocity all game pitch graph, April 19, 2009 vs.Kansas City:
It's not a technical or medical term, but those velocity charts show an arm that's gassed. To be more exact, I expect that they show a shoulder problem for Padilla. Control issues are usually correlated with elbow issues and velocity issues are usually correlated with shoulder issues.
We all know Vicente Padilla lives and dies by the fastball. When a guy like that moves from a low- to mid-90s fastball that he can dial into the upper 90s when necessary to an across-the-board decrease to a low-90s to upper 80s fastball that he can't even dial into the mid-90s, he's probably in trouble on the mound and, I'd guess, is not fessing up to some shoulder stiffness or shoulder soreness.
I hope my hunch is wrong, but I expect to hear about Padilla skipping a start or going on the DL before May rolls around.
(A big Texas thank you to www.brooksbaseball.net for his great Pitch f/x web tool.)
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crap great news
hope it isn’t the case
Nobody punished like Earl and No one was nastier than Ryan
Wouldn't his velocity be down across the board?
His slider and ephuus are both in the normal velocity range. (He apparently wasn’t throwing his hard curve in the May 8, 2008 start.)
If he was having a serious shoulder problem, his velocity would be down on all of his pitches, not just his fastball. I think it’s a timing issue. Time will tell.
Doesn't he scrap his
hard curve when he isn’t feeling well. Combine that with a lack of FB velocity and I think something is physically wrong with him.
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
He's been throwing his hard curve a lot this season.
The only thing “wrong” is that his fastball is 3-5 mph slower than normal and that it appears to be a little tougher for him to control.
Like I said before. The velocity of all of his other pitches are well within his normal range.
by NoNameOnCard on Apr 21, 2009 9:32 AM CDT up reply actions
"hard curve"
He thew several 79 MPH curveballs. In fact, it was probably his best out pitch. The fastball and the slider were working for early in the count setup, but he couldn’t throw the fastball with 2 strikes. It sat up in the zone and was a bit flat.
That's What I'm Curious (and worried) About
I saw the same thing in the data. He also looks like he is throwing a whole lot more offspeed stuff to make up for the lack of effectiveness with his fastball.
Would a dead arm explain why his fastball has lost velocity yet his other pitches are within their range?
by Mister Naxal on Apr 21, 2009 1:00 PM CDT up reply actions
If everything else seems normal, the only explanation...
is that he’s doing something wrong/different with his fastball. It’s something they’ll have to look at, but I suspect it’s a mechanical issue restricted to his fastball.
He could be throwing from a different release point. He could be throwing across his body more. He could be dragging his arm. If his other pitches were messed up, I would be more worried.
I’m not saying that he’s not injured, but if he is, I will be a little surprised.
by NoNameOnCard on Apr 21, 2009 3:27 PM CDT up reply actions
would his ephuus really be down in velocity?
how is that even possible?
Ceterum censeo Cat esse delendam - Cahill the Elder
Point in the season
Couldn’t an early season start and a late season start have something to do with this?
you mean early spring training start
and late season start? I’m hoping it’s something like dead arm, which has been suggested by a few.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
I Hope So, Too
I hope it’s dead arm instead of a shoulder issue, too. Padilla has an unfortunate history with his various maladies and not being open with the training staff about them, so who knows if he just needs some rest or if he’s pitching hurt?
by Mister Naxal on Apr 21, 2009 12:24 PM CDT up reply actions
That Was Why I Picked The Game From Last Year
It worked out nicely that the gem he pitched last year was in the first week of May. Both of the games referenced here were early season starts.
by Mister Naxal on Apr 21, 2009 12:23 PM CDT up reply actions
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