Maury Brown analyzes the Forbes franchise value data
by Adam J. Morris on Apr 24, 2009 10:00 AM CDT
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PrintMaury Brown has an item up taking a more in-depth look at the new Forbes franchise values that are out...
Only 8 franchises have values above the mean franchise value, and we also see that Jeffrey Loria is an evil genius:
But during his seven years of owning the Marlins, Loria has received more money from baseball's revenue redistribution system than the amount he paid for the team.
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And win World Series
I can’t blame Loria. 1> he brought the Marlins a 2nd championship. How many current owners can say that? 2> The rules are stupid, and stupid rules get taken advantage of. Revenue sharing should come with a minimum payroll requirement. Seems obvious. But they don’t have it, so Loria cheats the system. Not Loria’s fault.
It is his fault
He is the one that would rather field teams with a payroll under 20 million. MLB needs to change their rules and until now, Loria hasn’t done anything against the rules. Still, doesn’t mean I have to like an owner cheating the system to make a profit rather than to help his team win.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
how can you argue with the results?
he does help his team win
by dustinvandeman on Apr 24, 2009 10:24 AM CDT up reply actions
Not really
His GMs have done a hell of a job in the past. When your owner forces you to trade players because a couple of million is just too much to spend on a non-superstar, you are not helping your team win.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
I can't see why we blame any owner
who comes up with the rational response to an irrational system.
4/10/09 - Josh Hamilton's last walk.
Rational? Yes. Ethical? Not so much
Given that the MLB owners act pretty much as a collective, and given that everyone was SURELY apprised of the spirit of revenue sharing, it’s pretty sleazy to suck money out of the system like that.
Kinda like banks paying bonuses – it wasn’t against the rules (at least until the admin decided to go all “ex post facto” on them), but it was CLEARLY against the intent.
The Texas Rangers have been synonymous with explosive firepower ever since they emptied 130 rounds into Bonnie Parker and Clyde Barrow in 1934. - Alyssa Milano
The thing is
MLB should have known what they were getting in Jeffrey Loria after seeing his ownership of the Expos, and yet they still let him have the Marlins. Tough to be sympathetic to them. Jeffrey Loria has always been a parasite.
4/10/09 - Josh Hamilton's last walk.
The ol' 2 wrongs don't make a right saying applies here
MLB being run by morons (see Selig, Bud) does not justify Loria sucking money from baseball.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
If you don't want people sucking money away
eliminate the arbitrage opportunity.
It’s very simple. Stop giving revenue sharing dollars to teams that don’t have their salary at a competitive level. I’m 99.999999999999999% sure that the players association will agree to a minimum salary requirement.
I don’t see what “ethics” have to do with it. The Marlins field a pretty competitive team year in, year out, while paying the lowest salary in baseball year in/year out. It’s entirely MLBs fault for giving that money to him.
Salary floor
It won’t work, unless MLB specifies that the floor be a combination of team payroll and money spent on amateur players via the draft and foreign signings.
Otherwise, you’re basically telling the Marlins, Pirates, etc that they have to sign a few crappy veterans to expensive deals just to meet the minimum payroll. And what about teams like the Rays, who were successful last year on a $43 million payroll?
"I dont care to debate with a troll." - Sharky
I don't think you necessarily need a salary floor
but you should have one to let you be eligible for revenue sharing. If you’re spending 25 million dollars on your ML team, there is no reason that you need to get more money from MLB.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
yeah
I don’t have any problem with the Marlins only paying $24 million for their team. But if they do that, their revenue sharing dollars should be capped.
I’d include bonuses paid out to draftees and Latin kids, so long as those kids actually get the money.
Basically enforce the following equation by decreasing revenue sharing $
(League revenue share + Revenue sharing $) <= (player salaries in organization + signing bonuses).
It gets kind of trickier with that
If you include the LA signings in that, you have to clean up the entire LA system first.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
They could do a range
something like a $10-$20 max you could receive, but you can only receive up to a certain % of your payroll. So, is the Marlins had a $20M payroll, and the range was $10M (min) and $20 (Max), but the max % you could receive was 25% of your payroll — the most they could receive would be $5M.
That way wouldn’t require them to keep their MLB player salaries at a certain level — they just wouldn’t receive the max payment if they don’t.
"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan
by Dirk Diggler on Apr 24, 2009 2:56 PM CDT up reply actions
Their organizational strategy
is brilliant.
1. Trade all your talented players starting their expensive arbitration years for high end farm talent on other teams.
2. Develop that high end talent into good major league players
3. Field a competitive team with those good players
4. Return to step #1
Occasional bonus step.
1. Sign Carlos Delgado to a heavily backloaded contract, get one cheap year out of him then trade him to the Mets.
The thing about this strategy is that 1> it is very cheap yet effective. 2> leads to almost no fan loyalty. and 3> can only really be done by at most one or two teams (need a lot of buyers for their arbitration year talent).
I don't know if this is really the Beane doctrine
The Beane Doctrine, if there is such a thing, is to buy undervalued players and sell overvalued players. Beane isn’t intrinsically averse to keeping his players until free agency if there isn’t someone willing to overpay for them (Chavez, Giambi, Tejada, Zito), but when people are willing to pay up (Mulder, Hudson, Damon), he’ll pull the trigger.
Using the Rangers as an example, Beane would probably have considered trading Davis and Hamilton last offseason, since their trade values were probably much higher than their expected values going forward.
Florida wouldn’t trade them, because they are cheap. But they would have traded Kinsler by now because he’d be into his arbitration years.
On the Ranger specific example,
I’ve been seeing some comments recently that the time to sell high on Davis was this past offseason and now also Hamilton apparently peaked last year. I just don’t see this. WIth Davis, he played half a season in the Majors last year. There were a lot of question marks with him. 10 years from now, maybe we will look back and say that his value peaked then. I just can’t see how anyone could say that right now when there is so much uncertainty about what he’ll do going forward AND even more uncertainty about how other GMs around the league valued Davis. With Hamilton, there were still doubts about him being able to hit well for an entire season. Again, we might look back 10 years from now and say Hamilton peaked then, but I don’t see how you could say that right now given what Hamilton has done these past 2 years.
Also, I think Kinsler is more like Hanley Ramirez or Miguel Cabrera. The Marlins have held on to their superstars as long as they can. They only trade them when they are very close to FA and have a great deal lined up.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
well, it;s all uncertain
I just used Hammy and Davis the deal with Beane to illustrate what he thinks. I could very easily seeing Beane trading Davis after last year, because while there is a 25% chance his value goes up some, there is probably a equal chance it goes down considerably (basically, it has a lot further to fall than it has to go up). Beane trades guys like that.
Hammy is less extreme an example, and I’m really talking about his playing on the field. I think there is a disjoint between his real estimated value going forward and his perceived value going forward. And by those values, it’s all a statistical distribution of possible values. And Hammy’s case is mitigated a lot by his public persona. The PR cost associated with trading Hamilton is ridiculous – you don’t trade him unless you are 100% certain he’s about to fade away.
When has Beane traded someone like Davis?
Not specifically a slugging 1B, but when has he traded a player he has a full 6 years of control over who has a very high ceiling and only half an ML season under his belt. And again, its pretty uncertain what his value was around the league, but I’ll give you that and just assume that there was at least a decent return out there.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
He's never traded anyone specifically like Davis
And really, I don’t know what his value was. It mayn’t have been very high. Or maybe it was. I doubt JD was calling people and asking.
But Beane traded Haren early (I believe 3 years prior to FA), and I read that not as an indictment against Haren, but really him reading the trade market and seeing that he could get substantial value in return, while knowing that he could put anyone on the mound in Oakland and get decent pitching.
The Harden example may be useful. He basically unloaded Harden for whatever he could get, just because the uncertainty with him was pretty steep. Even though waiting for a full healthy season would have netted him a lot more, the downside risk with Harden was that he’d get nothing. Not that Davis = Harden, but I think both have their own risks
I’m not saying we should have traded Davis (though I wouldn’t be shocked if in 3 years we’ll wish we had.) I’m just saying I think Beane would have at least considered it.
Trading Haren for a huge haul before he is getting his bigger paydays
isn’t anywhere near the same as trading Davis 3/4 months into his Major League career.
With Harden, you are talking about huge question marks with his health and I still don’t think that was a good deal to make (not at the time of the deal or right now).
I think a good GM considers all his moves, but there is a difference between consideration and action.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
He didn't bring them a World Championship.
He basically bought a team that ended up winning a title with what was already in place.
Marlins-Rangers
As stated, their management – evil or not – has won two championships and may be real contenders again.
That said, I could never be a fan of a team called: Marlins.
That said, Part Two, I’m glad the Rangers are using something close to their approach. Finally!
Reply - Marlins Front Office
I don’t know.
I think their concept for building-tearing it down is the essential thing. Given that direction from the top, I bet several GM’s could accomplish something good.
I hate Jeffrey Loria.
I also hate Jeffrey Lurie. And I consider them the same person.
"Hang-Dai, Wu...Hang-Fu$&ing-Dai"
by Walter Sobchak on Apr 24, 2009 11:30 AM CDT reply actions
I hate Soccer
but I have to admit, their league system with relegations and all is infinitely more appealing than our socialist leagues with subsidized franchises that really don’t worry too much about winning.
4/10/09 - Josh Hamilton's last walk.
Gotta agree..
I like the idea of bottom-dwelling teams getting relegated especially.
The Texas Rangers have been synonymous with explosive firepower ever since they emptied 130 rounds into Bonnie Parker and Clyde Barrow in 1934. - Alyssa Milano
Yep
The difference in revenue a team can generate in the 1st division of a given league (especially the “big” leagues like England, Spain, Italy, and Mexico, for example) and what they can make as a 2nd division club, is a pretty powerful financial incentive for even the worst teams to try and remain competitive all season long.
"I dont care to debate with a troll." - Sharky
Cahill for Commish!
¡Prefiero morir de pie que vivir siempre arrodillado!
by inactive lsb user on Apr 25, 2009 1:20 PM CDT up reply actions
Marlins
Have been the biggest beneficiary of the wildcard system. In their 16 years of existence, they’ve won two World Series, but have never won their division.
"A good start would be not giving up 900 runs again." -Jon Daniels
by Randy Richardson on Apr 24, 2009 12:33 PM CDT reply actions
Loria is smart
I admire him. I wish I was smart enough to win a championship on the league’s dollar and make a profit.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
redistribution of money
nice.
I use to love to hit, I use to take it serious. I only got one at bat a year, maybe...but, I took it serious. I hit 1.000 one year, if i had another at bat, I'd hit 2.000...
Wouldn't it be great to have a smart owner?
And one that cares about winning?
Separated at Birth: Alfred E. Neuman and Jon Daniels
"WHAT, ME WORRY?"
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