Predictions, power rankings, and the like

by Adam J. Morris on Apr 4, 2009 10:12 AM CDT

With Opening Day on Monday, we are starting to see predictions and power rankings and that sort of thing...

Ken Rosenthal predicts a 2nd place finish for the Rangers, and has them in the "Rising, But Not Ready" category...

Joe Sheehan predicts the Rangers end the season in third place with a 78-84 record, 860 runs scored and 888 runs allowed, and has this to say about them:

It's very tempting to see the Rangers as a surprise team this year, what with a confluence of young talent on the way and a front office that is turning the team over to its youth. However, while the position players, many of them imports like Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Nelson Cruz, will boost the offense, the pitchers are a year behind. The Opening Day rotation isn't very good, and it pitches in front of a defense that leaves something to be desired. As much as I like the lineup, Elvis Andrus isn't ready to hit in the majors, and the ongoing fascination with David Murphy puzzles me. They'll sort these issues out in '09, and be my pick to win the West in 2010. And 2011. And 2012.

Yahoo has their baseball writers predict the final records of each team, and while Jeff Passan predicts an 85 win first place finish for the Rangers, the other three writers have Texas finishing third, with anywhere from 74-78 wins.

ESPN's power rankings have the Rangers at #22 to start the season.

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I've always liked that Jeff Passan

"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan

by Dirk Diggler on Apr 4, 2009 10:22 AM CDT reply actions

ESPN Poll

equal fail for me. really? the giants are better than us?

by 34express on Apr 4, 2009 10:24 AM CDT reply actions

Nice young talent will surprise people. Keep an eye on the Giants. Not sure if they're better than the Rangers, though.

In case folks care, here’s who I think are solidly worse than the Rangers:

Marlins
Nationals
Pirates
Astros
Rockies
Padres
White Sox
Royals
Orioles

And about the same as the Rangers:
Reds
Giants
Mariners
Blue Jays

Putting Texas ahead of all the first group and half the second group makes them number 19 in my instant, uber-subjective power rankings.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Apr 4, 2009 10:34 AM CDT up reply actions

I agree...

The Giants could surprise some people. I think they can win the NL West. Their rotation is very good.

I also agree on the teams you have listed that are worse than the Rangers with one exception. Replace the Marlins with the Reds. The young pitching the Marlins have that is ML ready could be great. Also some solid guys in that lineup. Their problem will be on the defensive side though, no doubt. Still I picked them to win the NL East. I think the Phillies and Mets are overrrated. I don’t like Moyer and Chan Ho in the Phillies rotation and I’m still not sold on Myers and Blanton. As for the Mets, if Johan can’t stay healthy that rotation looks very questionable at best imo.

We shall see, damn I’m pumped for the season to start.

"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates

by slc ranger on Apr 4, 2009 10:47 AM CDT up reply actions

Giants

A big part of me just hates Sabean’s approach to building a roster, but every 5th day they’ll be the overwhelming favorite just because of Lincecum. The other 4 days they should at least be competitive with whoever is on their mound.

I just can’t shake the notion that the Dodgers are a better team. I think they’re easily the best team in the West and should walk away with that division. They won’t for one reason or another, but they should.

by JBImaknee on Apr 4, 2009 4:54 PM CDT up reply actions

I would love to, but I'm not sure I buy the Orioles, Rockies, White Sox or Marlins as solidly worse than us.

I think the Orioles could be about the same, but that’s mostly just because I think the White Sox are fairly unpredictable and the Marlins have some unpredictable upside.

And That Happened: Sports with a Hint of Sarcasm

by philkid3 on Apr 4, 2009 11:01 AM CDT up reply actions

The Rockies I do think will be worse, but it's just markedly less confident than the rest of the teams.

And That Happened: Sports with a Hint of Sarcasm

by philkid3 on Apr 4, 2009 11:02 AM CDT up reply actions

The Marlins are my darkhorse to do very, very well this year

and since they apparently win the world series every 6 years (1997, 2003, 2009), we should all watch out

by JBImaknee on Apr 4, 2009 4:56 PM CDT up reply actions

you think the mariners are about the same as TX?

aren’t they pretty much the consensus pick for fourth, with the Angels, A’s, and Rangers duking it out for 1, 2, 3?

by MeanMr.Mustard on Apr 4, 2009 12:42 PM CDT up reply actions

I don't think the Mariners are a consensus pick for fourth.

And That Happened: Sports with a Hint of Sarcasm

by philkid3 on Apr 4, 2009 1:37 PM CDT up reply actions

72 wins +/-

Has no other Ranger fan than me seen the computer projections that show the Rangers winning 72 games and having the worst record in the AL?

I put $11 on the over (74.5) but wondering if that was a smart bet or just wishful thinking. I was going to pick under but the odds changed on me.

by gr7070 on Apr 4, 2009 12:49 PM CDT up reply actions

There are some questions with those projections, though.

Will the defense improve with the fielding even more than projectable because of shorter innings? PECOTA thinks Josh Hamilton’s career is not unique and downgrades him probably more than is fair when, in fact, he is actually very unique. Many thing Chris Davis, another player most projections don’t like much, has a unique skill set that allows him to sustain offense at a high level with seemingly poor plate discipline. Might Rudy really be good enough to help avoid the expected offensive regression? There are more questions, some more plausible than others, but I do think they provide enough (especially Hamilton) to indicate taking the over on a typical projection around 70-72 wins would be prudent.

How much is a question, but from doing my own work on the subject all off season, I think about 4 wins above whatever projection system you feel makes the most basic sense is reasonable.

And That Happened: Sports with a Hint of Sarcasm

by philkid3 on Apr 4, 2009 1:41 PM CDT up reply actions

Opening Day is near

I love the sound of this concept: “They’ll sort these issues out in 2009 and win in 2010, 2011, 2012.”

Also, re: David Murphy comment, the Rangers are not exactly tied to him, especially if he doesn’t produce.

by 3Bagger on Apr 4, 2009 10:25 AM CDT reply actions

im shocked

that none of the yahoo writers picked the yankees to make the playoffs

i hate them but i have to think they’re making the playoffs this year, i mean they won 89 games last year and plenty of things went wrong for them last year

go here to view my blog: http://dirtfromd.blogspot.com

by studcrackers on Apr 4, 2009 10:37 AM CDT reply actions

Yankees seem like a high-risk, high-reward team.

They’ve got some old bodies and a massive payroll. They could have serious breakage of key parts, or they could have 4 All-Star pitchers, a historic year from their 3B, and one more surprisingly good year at the plate from their SS. With old bodies, I think I would err on the side of caution and say their potential will not be reached.

JD: Adamant about 78 wins in 2009. Go Rangers!

by rooster on Apr 4, 2009 10:54 AM CDT up reply actions

Age

I agree the Yankees record will depend a lot on health.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Apr 4, 2009 11:14 AM CDT up reply actions

And how much they can keep Tex interested in playing his best.

And how much they play Nady over Swisher probalby, too.

And That Happened: Sports with a Hint of Sarcasm

by philkid3 on Apr 4, 2009 11:33 AM CDT up reply actions

Yankees Age and PED's

Through the years, it seems to me that PED’s sorta helped the aging Yankees the most. By Signing vets and getting a bit more out of those players may be over. PED’s are probably here to stay, but, perhaps less so? Which makes me skeptical that the usual Yankees Free Agent game plan will work as well.

Before that Torre run, they were zero in the World Series dept for 17 years. Boston gives up on Clemens, and the Yankees make him a central pitcher years later (by way of injection).

This stat: “17 of the 18 starters in 2008 World Series were under 30,” is probably huge info for the balance of power in the MLB, I think. The Yankees can sign every has-been, but the Rangers-Royals can use youth to combat that philosophy.

by 3Bagger on Apr 4, 2009 12:23 PM CDT up reply actions

Damn. Goldstein's pick is pretty close to mine.

But Goldstein is always wrong.

And That Happened: Sports with a Hint of Sarcasm

by philkid3 on Apr 4, 2009 10:59 AM CDT reply actions

I just don't understand the love

that Oakland gets. They have 3 rookie starters. That usually does not bode well. Their closer is hurt, and Zeigler doesn’t scare me. Guys who close, but don’t have high k rates usually aren’t as successful.

The angels and a’s could roll out their AAA teams and they would be ranked above texas. although, i think next year is an optimal year for the rangers, I think they have a shot this year with the injuries that are being sustained by division foes.

Bring on April 6th!

by NothinG on Apr 4, 2009 12:05 PM CDT reply actions

"Guys who close, but don’t have high k rates usually aren’t as successful."

Why is this and do you have an objective basis for it?

And That Happened: Sports with a Hint of Sarcasm

by philkid3 on Apr 4, 2009 1:42 PM CDT up reply actions

Just a guess, and therefore no clinks to back me up...

but closing is the highest-leverage situation there is, and the least productive out for the opposition is the K.

by bking on Apr 4, 2009 5:33 PM CDT up reply actions

Brandon Lyon is an example

he pitches more to contact and is not as successful. there are times when you need a strikeout. i think most people would agree that they would like to have a power pitcher at the end of the game.

Todd Jones is an example as well.

My main point, though, is that Zeigler pitches to contact. If you are a hitter, I think you come to the plate with a little more confidence knowing that the guy isn’t going to blow you away, you just have to stay back and take a good cut. Granted, he has alot of movement, but his BB/9 wasn’t that great either. I’m not so sure he can sustain his ERA and WHIP from last year. Without looking it up, i think his whip was actually higher than the ERA. I’m sure he had a low BABIP etc, but he may have been fortunate in other areas.

Bring on April 6th!

by NothinG on Apr 4, 2009 9:21 PM CDT up reply actions