Keith Law with a shoutout to LSB
Jason (Atlanta): Follow up on Smoak. Not to say he couldn't use some more development time in the minors, but would he be an improvement over Davis right now?Keith Law: (12:37 PM ET ) I think he would be. Adam Morris of Lonestarball and I had a back-and-forth on this; he thinks that Davis' cold start is just that, and that moving Smoak up now would be rushing him. I could argue for splitting the baby, putting Smoak in AAA, and giving Davis another 100 PA (he has been better lately, although he could still sub in for a broken wind turbine on off days). * * *Adam J. Morris (Houston, TX): Thanks for the plug -- are the Rangers legit contenders in a weak AL West this year, or do you see them dropping out of the hunt before the trade deadline?Keith Law: (1:06 PM ET ) They're legit, if only because the division is so bad. I wouldn't rule any of the four teams there out.
From today's Keith Law chat. He also has a lot of Smoak talk.
6 months ago
Adam J. Morris
202 comments
0 recs |
Comments
Is it even a guarantee anymore
that Davis is going to be one to move to DH for Smoak. Davis’ defense looks great now and before the season, Scott Servais said he was the more polished of the two.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
by Gdawg on May 13, 2009 12:24 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
If the Rangers do end up keeping both I would think Smoak will be the DH.
These umps are a bunch of bow-legged uncle fuckers.-D.A.Tron
http://tinyurl.com/ranger-rage
by boomer1 on May 13, 2009 12:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not happening. Smoak has way too much value to be DHing. He'll be dealt before he becomes this team's DH
by oc on May 13, 2009 12:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't see how you don't have
one of Davis or Smoak DHing.
Its not like you are going to resign Blalock or Jones.
4/10/09 - Josh Hamilton's last walk.
by DJCahill on May 13, 2009 12:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
And the one that has the best glove
will play the field. In this case Davis.
These umps are a bunch of bow-legged uncle fuckers.-D.A.Tron
http://tinyurl.com/ranger-rage
by boomer1 on May 13, 2009 12:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, if you are going to make a long term committment to
one or the other, and its an either/or, clearly you keep Smoak, because I believe Davis is a Boras guy and is likely to be gone as soon as FA hits.
4/10/09 - Josh Hamilton's last walk.
by DJCahill on May 13, 2009 12:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
that is correct
but having Smoak DH is simply a huge waste of an asset. Plus, I think he is a guy who prides himself on his defense, so DHing this yearly in his career could have a negative effect on his entire game.
What is this, Horseville? Because I'm surrounded by naysayers.
by clark on May 13, 2009 1:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd probably go with
Davis DHing, mostly because I think you’d rather commit to Smoak longterm if you have to choose.
4/10/09 - Josh Hamilton's last walk.
by DJCahill on May 13, 2009 1:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, yes, a thousand times yes.
Smoak is likely to be more consistent with the bat over his career, and the difference in defense at 1B is COMPLETELY IRRELEVANT, people. I don’t care how good Davis is, that is not a reason to keep him there. We’re not talking about SS or CF here. I expect Smoak to easily makeup any difference in defense (if, indeed, there ever is one in the long run between the two) with his bat.
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by t ball on May 13, 2009 1:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
this may not be the case next season, but
the difference in defense at 1B is COMPLETELY IRRELEVANT, people
Well, at least for this year, it IS relevant. You have a rookie at SS and another player learning 3B. Davis’ defense at 1B has carried both of them at times, whether it’s making a great pick or stretching out to get the runner by a half-step. As time goes on and the other two infielders grow more comfortable, it will become less of an issue… but for now, that defense at 1B is huge.
Grieve: The Yanks have struggled so far. - Lewin: Yeah, cry me a bag of money.
Dykstra has all the money!
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by WhipSmart on May 13, 2009 1:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you are comparing Teixeira and Blalock
then yeah, the difference in 1b defense is significant.
But the difference between Smoak – considered a good glove at first – and Davis – who has shown he has a good glove at first at the MLB level – is not likely significant regardless of the current situation.
by JBImaknee on May 13, 2009 1:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I could be persuaded to agree that we're more likely to have Smoak long term if we play him at first.
But I disagree that first base is irrelevant. Assuming both hit well enough to belong in the lineup, the better fielder belongs at first.
by philkid3 on May 13, 2009 2:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree
the better fielder goes there, but I’m overreacting to people just assuming (on a few weeks of play) that Davis is and always will be better and you don’t dare move him off of there. Neither is going to be a slouch there and the difference is not likely to be meaningful.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
by t ball on May 13, 2009 2:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you're planning on trading one of them, then you don't DH them
If you’re planning on using both of them in the lineup to compete, someone has to DH.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
by Gdawg on May 13, 2009 12:46 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Man, I'm talking long term. It's not very likely that Smoak will be pidgeonholed into the DH role, and if he is, it will be for a very short time.
Let’s not forget we also have Max. One of those three players will be on the move sometime before the 2011 World Series run if not sooner
by oc on May 13, 2009 1:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I vote for moving the guy
represented by Scott Boras.
Assuming Ramirez gets it in gear and can hit ML pitching.
4/10/09 - Josh Hamilton's last walk.
by DJCahill on May 13, 2009 1:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You can't puss away from Boras forever.
by bhudson on May 13, 2009 1:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know if its
“pussing away” to acknowledge the fact that Boras clients rarely re-sign with their original clubs, and usually go to free agency.
Dealing with Boras is a huge negative. I have no idea why you wouldn’t factor that in your decision making.
4/10/09 - Josh Hamilton's last walk.
by DJCahill on May 13, 2009 1:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Boras
So what do we do with Teagarden? He’s a Boras guy as well.
"I dont care to debate with a troll." - Sharky
by RCCook on May 13, 2009 1:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
And for that matter
So is Julio Borbon.
"I dont care to debate with a troll." - Sharky
by RCCook on May 13, 2009 1:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm sure we run out
Borbon til he leaves us as FA or we get a better option.
4/10/09 - Josh Hamilton's last walk.
by DJCahill on May 13, 2009 3:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Considering Teagardan
looks like a catch and throw no hit backup type, does anyone really care what we do with him?
If someone was stupid enough to trade us something for him, I guess we’d take it, but I assume we use him for a back up til he goes FA then dump him.
4/10/09 - Josh Hamilton's last walk.
by DJCahill on May 13, 2009 3:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think you're giving up...
on Teagarden a little quickly. Salty has looked very good this year so TT’s chances have been limited. I think TT could be a well above average starting catcher in the bigs. I don’t think a team would be stupid to give up something of value for him. I can count at least 10 teams right now that he would be an upgrade for over their current starting catcher imo.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
by slc ranger on May 13, 2009 3:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think the
“no hit catch and throw” catcher tag has been on Teagarden quite a while, as has been the fragile tag.
I think his body rejects the position of starting catcher.
4/10/09 - Josh Hamilton's last walk.
by DJCahill on May 13, 2009 3:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Teagarden's bat
He has a career .899 OPS in the minor leagues and a .942 in limited big league action. He may end up being a catch and throw backup, but it seems premature to assume that he won’t hit, when his record shows that he has.
Doctor please. Some more of these.
by tricer on May 13, 2009 4:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think the Rangers
will end up dealing Davis after (maybe during) the 2010 season. SP is always a priority and Davis plus a few pieces can get a legit #1 or #2 starter.
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
by RangerMad on May 13, 2009 12:36 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Smoak + Harrison + Beavan could probably nab you the Doc
by oc on May 13, 2009 12:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's a free agent after 2010
You really want to give up that much to get a half-season of Halladay?
by Adam J. Morris on May 13, 2009 12:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If it guarantees me a trip to the playoffs for two consecutive years and not giving up Feliz or Holland, yes
by oc on May 13, 2009 12:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I thought you were talking about doing that next July
by Adam J. Morris on May 13, 2009 12:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Halladay
The Jays aren’t going to trade him this year, at least not while they’re still in contention in the East.
"I dont care to debate with a troll." - Sharky
by RCCook on May 13, 2009 1:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Earthshattering analyis by Ricciardi
I think if we’re at that 81 mark and we’re playing the way we’ve been playing, I think we’re for real at that point.
The 2008-2009 Dallas Mavericks are the biggest teases in the world.
"We love Wash.....As a team, we want Wash as the head of that team." Hamilton
"The NFL made me undergo a psychiatric evaluation......Please. It was an accident. If I wanted to post a picture of my penis I wouldn't have been all hunched over."- Chris Cooley.
by sprite on May 13, 2009 3:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
but he wouldn't guarantee anything
I wouldn’t make said trade if we were 5 games back and hoping he can somehow turn the tide.
However, if by some miracle we are 5+ games up and the playoffs are likely… well, doc in a short series would make the rangers a legitimate playoff threat.. so that would get more temping. obviously you do get 2 draft picks in the end.
Lets just hope Sheets does in fact get healthy and remains interested and we can reinforce that way.. i’d rather risk his health than give up smoak.
the preceding post was a great success.
by DSheppard on May 13, 2009 12:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
They'll probably ask for a catcher
with pop up back there. I really believe if Doc is traded the Rangers will be the frontrunners.
The 2008-2009 Dallas Mavericks are the biggest teases in the world.
"We love Wash.....As a team, we want Wash as the head of that team." Hamilton
"The NFL made me undergo a psychiatric evaluation......Please. It was an accident. If I wanted to post a picture of my penis I wouldn't have been all hunched over."- Chris Cooley.
by sprite on May 13, 2009 2:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
trade target
Josh Johnson
Doctor please. Some more of these.
by tricer on May 13, 2009 1:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
using the Beckett trade as a template
I’d say that it would take an elite prospect or young major leaguer with serious upside and several years of team control (Smoak or Davis), plus an arm from the tier just below Feliz-Holland-Perez (similar to the way the BoSox kept Papelbon and Lester…so say one of Beavan, Boscan, Main). The Sox actually probably got a bit of a discount in the Beckett deal because they also picked up a large salary in Lowell, so to make up that difference I’d say that we’d have to add another significant prospect like maybe one of Max/Borbon/Beltre.
So my guess would be that it would take something like Davis, Boscan, and Beltre. And if JJ could be had for something like that, I’d pull the trigger.
Doctor please. Some more of these.
by tricer on May 13, 2009 2:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Beckett was a past World Series MVP
With an epic postseason performance. I’m a huge fan of Johnson’s, but I don’t think he has a Beckett price. Or at least I wouldn’t think so.
"Elvis Andrus has just performed a miracle." -Eric Nadel
by WestTxAg06 on May 13, 2009 2:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It goes beyond Beckett's post-season.
I don’t think Beckett’s an especially compelling comparable for Johnson.
by Snark on May 13, 2009 2:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
ok
what do you think it would take?
Doctor please. Some more of these.
by tricer on May 13, 2009 2:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I honestly don't know, which is why I asked.
You might well be right about a Davis/Boscan/Beltre package doing it, and I’m not sure I wouldn’t want Daniels to pull that trigger.
Going off what I’ve seen of Johnson and his stats, I don’t see Beckett as a good performance comparable (which is why I replied the way I did to WestTxAg06’s post). But it’s hard to say how much that matters, given the context of the Beckett/Lowell trade. The Marlins seem to be in a different place now than they were then. But who the hell knows? Maybe not. That’s a strange franchise with an interesting owner.
by Snark on May 13, 2009 2:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
They need a catcher..
So maybe Davis, Teagarden and Boscan…
by sftxfan on May 13, 2009 3:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sold...
I really like CD and TT, but the Rangers have the depth to replace them. Johnson is going to be a very good pitcher in this league. If you can get a young top of the rotation talent like that without giving up Feliz/Holland/Smoak then you do it imo.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
by slc ranger on May 13, 2009 3:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think it's more likely
we get one of their soon to be arb-eligible relievers than get one of their rotation cogs.
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by t ball on May 13, 2009 1:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nunez, I guess would be a good target
The rest of their pen doesn’t look so hot after a quick glance. Who are you talking about?
Doctor please. Some more of these.
by tricer on May 13, 2009 2:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
No one specifically
just seems like a smart way to go for them.
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by t ball on May 13, 2009 2:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I sure hope this team doesn't fall in love with the fact that Teagarden and Davis are 'hometown' players.
If they can bring back what we need, move them.
by oc on May 13, 2009 12:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well he's clearly a nay-sayer
was the preceding comment
a) True
b) False
c) Absurd
the preceding post was a great success.
by DSheppard on May 13, 2009 12:36 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Lackey vs the rangers on saturday
not that im terrified of lackey on his first start back, but i was hoping for that ortega guy.
the preceding post was a great success.
by DSheppard on May 13, 2009 12:54 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Davis has an OPS north of .900
since his 1-22 start. He strikes out way to much but the guy is still just 23 years old.
by groundingout on May 13, 2009 1:06 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
and if he can ops 900 while striking out 45% of the time since then
imagine what he will do when he gets back down to ~28% =p
the preceding post was a great success.
by DSheppard on May 13, 2009 1:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
how about this?
Max at dh
Smoak at first
davis at third
We’ve got to find a spot in the field for both davis and smoak otherwise were gonna have to trade maxram. I think davis has the athleticism and arm to play third.
by Ty R on May 13, 2009 1:30 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I think
the team has its 3B through 2013.
4/10/09 - Josh Hamilton's last walk.
by DJCahill on May 13, 2009 1:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You want the Rangers to move Davis to third
in 2014?
by Snark on May 13, 2009 1:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
this is exactly what i'm talking about
davis has been an incredible defensive 1B. There is no way you should feel comfotable moving him somewhere else – let alone 3B where he was incredibly bad
by ab03 on May 13, 2009 1:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
except to DH
People, defense at 1B is just not a difference maker between Smoak and Davis. It just isn’t. I’m coming close to harping on this, but no one should cry if Davis is moved off of 1B in favor of Smoak.
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by t ball on May 13, 2009 2:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
that is absolutey the wrong way to evaluate this
davis is the best 1b defender in the league by a lot. the decision calculus isn’t just “smoak and davis are the same defensively so moving Davis to DH is no loss”
You just diminished the value of one of your best assets without getting ANYTHING in return. There are probably so many less than dollar value trades that would make sense to make before you just completely tank Davis’ value.
You either trade Davis or trade Smoak. The ONLY reason you don’t make those trades is if the returns are just so bad that you get more value out of Davis by playing him at RF or DH. But I really doubt you can’t get full value on a Smoak trade.
by ab03 on May 13, 2009 2:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
diminished value of an asset
I seriously doubt that if Chris Davis is a DH next year, that team’s will totally forget that he can also play first base.
Doctor please. Some more of these.
by tricer on May 13, 2009 2:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
the diminished value
comes not from decrease in trade value of Davis. It comes from the Rangers not using him efficiently. I might be fine with a temporary Davis/Smoak platoon if there was a trade on the horizon but then you do risk his trade value going down and I’m sure it only helps for him to get better at 1B the more reps he gets.
But that trade better happen. Just moving Davis to DH and forgetting about it is silly
by ab03 on May 13, 2009 2:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, I don't think
that Davis will remain the best 1B in baseball by that big a margin all season, that’s a silly assumption. My point here is that people are overestimating the difference between Davis and Smoak defensively.
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by t ball on May 13, 2009 2:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
and my point is
that is COMPLETELY IRRELEVANT
if Davis and Smoak are #1 and #1A in defense in the league, do you move Davis off because the difference is neglible? Do you even move Davis off if Smoak is actually much better but Davis is better than everybody else?
the answer is no.
by ab03 on May 13, 2009 2:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wait.
If Smoak is the best first baseman in baseball and Davis is the second best, why don’t you move Davis?
by philkid3 on May 13, 2009 2:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
"move" davis
You trade Davis. You don’t make him switch positions. I’m absolutely fine with trading Davis or Smoak. I get the feeling you’ll get better value for Smoak but maybe that is wrong
by ab03 on May 13, 2009 2:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why don't you make him switch positions if that position is DH?
by philkid3 on May 13, 2009 2:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
what the hell do people not understand about this?
Let’s assume:
Davis 1B Value: 9
Offense: 6
Defense 3
Smoak 1B Value: 11
Offense: 7.5
Defense: 3.5
Davis DH: 6
Davis Any other Position: 5 (most likely)
Smoak 1b, Davis Dh: 17
Now, you see that? If we got anything over 6 value for Davis in trade, you would do it. Then Smoak 1b and Davis replacement through trade give you a better return. Likewise, if you trade Smoak (which I think you’ll get better value for in a trade) you can probably get much better than the 17.
But the key here is that if you got at least 2/3 value of Davis in trade or 8/11 (slightly more than 2/3rds) value of Smoak in a trade, that is better than a Davis/Smoak combo.
by ab03 on May 13, 2009 2:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, if we got something better than Davis, sure.
But I dont’ think you’re guaranteed of that. I absolutely advocate shopping him. I’m definitely against saying he can’t go to DH.
by philkid3 on May 13, 2009 2:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
you don't need something BETTER
you need something 2/3rds as good for it to work better than the 1B/DH combo. 2/3D’s. You could essentially get ripped off and it is still better
by ab03 on May 13, 2009 3:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, you need something better than Davis the DH.
You need someone who is going to add more wins to the team over the player he replaces on the roster than Davis adds over whoever would DH instead of him.
by philkid3 on May 13, 2009 3:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I might be undervaluing Davis' offense
but lets make it more concrete:
Davis trade target (RP) Value: 6
RP currently on team: 0 (average)
so if you could find a pitcher that was as valuable as Davis was as a DH, then you just need to replace him with a league average DH (how hard is that to find?).
But, don’t we have below average RP’s on the team? The real question is how important is a DH (or Davis as DH). I bet that you could find a pitcher or position player that woudl be better than the palyer they are replacing at a larger clip than Davis is better than the DH that would replace him.
And if not, then yeah, go with the Davis/Smoak combo. I’m just saying, I doubt that is the case.
by ab03 on May 13, 2009 3:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
League-average DHs aren't that easy to find.
They’re roughly as easy to find as league average at other positions. Perhaps more difficult as defense comes cheap and you can’t get defensive value (obviously) at DH.
But, yes, if you can get someone worth more wins above our 5th starter than Davis is worth over whoever would be at DH, yes, I agree, trade him. That is definitely not guaranteed, though.
Also, no way I trade him for a reliever. There are very few relievers worth that much, and most of them are flighty year to year.
by philkid3 on May 13, 2009 3:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
So a player in trade
of lesser value than Davis is better than having Davis at DH? No.
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by t ball on May 13, 2009 3:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
ok
do you see the numbers? go find the fallacy
by ab03 on May 13, 2009 3:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're crazy
If you get good value for either one of them, fine, trade them. But you do not just go out and trade one of them unless you have a BETTER DH on hand or you get value in return.
We’re talking in circles. I’m sure you don’t mean just trade Davis or Smoak for a lesser player just because you don’t want to “waste” one of them at DH.
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by t ball on May 13, 2009 3:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
omk
seriously, you’re a smart guy. Can you not understand what is going on? It’s simple math – just read the damn post. quit repeating what you’re saying over and over again. just think about this logically for a second (or 30)
by ab03 on May 13, 2009 3:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You are repeating
the same idiocy over and over. I’m not going to trade Davis (or Smoak) for his “DH value” I’m going to trade them for their overall value. Your little number exercise is ok for guaging current value in the lineup, but not for guaging trade return.
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by t ball on May 13, 2009 3:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
you're wrong
just think about it. Current value and trade return are synonymous. I’m not getting less value in trade than I would be getting out of them by playing them.
Ideally, you woudl try to reap the benefits of both as position players, but they can’t play in the field at the same time. Your solution is to not play one fo them in the field. My solution is to trade out one of them for someone who you can get full value out of.
And the point is simple: Given that you can’t get full value out of Davis/Smoak, you jsut need to do better than the Davis/Smoak 1b/DH combo. So whoever you trade, as long as the return coupled with the person you kept is better than the combo, you do the trade.
Just thinking about the values, looking at teh numbers, it seems very lijkely that the trade would yield you a better result than the 1bDH Combo. Just think about the values, run the numbers.
by ab03 on May 13, 2009 3:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
But davis would provide insurance
in case smoak fails (its possible) or is injured. you could end up trading davis because you think you have 2 1bs, and end up with none.
the preceding post was a great success.
by DSheppard on May 13, 2009 3:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
well you wouldn't trade either unless you were sure you had a good 1B
and I’d rather trade Smoak first anyway.
by ab03 on May 13, 2009 3:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
and your fallacy:
lesser value than Davis in total; of equal value to davis the DH
by ab03 on May 13, 2009 3:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not a fallacy.
Davis or Smoak is an asset you trade for equal or greater value, not their value at DH.
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by t ball on May 13, 2009 3:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
no no NOOOOOOO
that is the whole point of the fucking post. you don’t even have to get full value for Davis at 1B if the alternative is that you’re jsut going to use him as a DH. Then you just need to do better than Davis teh DH. Which makes it more likely that you can get a better trade. Get it?
by ab03 on May 13, 2009 3:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
i think you are really going overboard on this.
if you are just getting his value at DH.. you are gaining nothing. you trade for a gain, not just ot make sure you are using 100% of every player on the diamond.
if you can get 100% of davis’s value in trade, and thus a significant upgrade over his value to you at 1b, sure. but you don’t do it just to make sure everything lines up just right.
the preceding post was a great success.
by DSheppard on May 13, 2009 3:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
over his value at dh*
and its not always easy to do this. it has to be at a position the rangers need at the mlb level and thus would gain the value.
ideally that would be a SP, but garza for delmon young type deals are very rare.
the preceding post was a great success.
by DSheppard on May 13, 2009 3:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
this is a good point
and maybe I’m not considering it enough. But I feel like Smoak could maybe get you that return (if Davis couldn’t).
But again, if the trade isn’t’ there, fine.
by ab03 on May 13, 2009 3:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm nto just getting hsi value at DH
I want to do better than that. But I’m saying I don’t even have to approach his full value to do demonstrably better.
by ab03 on May 13, 2009 3:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
couple things
I don’t think davis’s value at DH is necessarily that easy to replace. Hes 23 years old, he can still develop. Don’t you think he could end up a .275/.340 hitter with 40-45 HRs? That is not easy to replace, even if its not all of Davis’s value.
And since this is all about what value you are getting right now at the mlb level, what position are you getting? The pitcher would have to be enough of a gain over what we have ready now to counter the loss at DH. And it has to be with a team that happens to need a 1b specifically. That cuts out a ton of teams… it has to be perfect.
So I agree with you in some theory, but I think it would be quite difficult to execute.
And as I finish writing this, your post above appeared in which you say something similar. Im going to go ahead and hit post anyway, heh.
the preceding post was a great success.
by DSheppard on May 13, 2009 3:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah
I am possibly not correctly accounting for
a) how easy it would be to get a suitable DH replacement
b) how much better the player davis brings would be than the player that person replaces
Still, I bet there are some trades out there, especially if Davis’ D is legit
by ab03 on May 13, 2009 3:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I see what you're saying
but I disagree and I’d have a slightly higher standard for the trade return in that case. On the phone, I’m asking for players that equal Davis’s or Smoak’s value as a 1B, assuming the other team would also want to use them at their greatest value. I’m not going to lowball myself by selling one of them as a DH.
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by t ball on May 13, 2009 3:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
great
so you end up not making a deal that makes your team better because of….fairness? some sense of equity?
great.
by ab03 on May 13, 2009 3:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is silly
Of course I’m not making a deal that brings less in return than the value of the player. Why would I? It has nothing to do with fairness, it’s smart use of your resources. If all I’m going to get in return is DH value, why not just use the guy at DH until you find a better deal?
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by t ball on May 13, 2009 3:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't want just DH value
I want better than DH value. I’m saying I don’t need to get all teh way to Davis full 1B value.
But, given that Davis defensive value is significant, then there is a pretty big margin to work with. I think I can get a player worse than Davis the 1B but better than Davis the DH and I would do that deal.
by ab03 on May 13, 2009 3:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I probably wouldn't
but I don’t think it would be so easy to tell exactly what that value is. You’d likely be dealing for a player at a different position, maybe a pitcher, and that’s not an easy comparison, especially if multiple players are involved.
I expect a deal to be made at some point involving one of these guys or one of the catchers. It probably won’t be terribly easy for us to know for sure the exact value, we’ll be going on gut instinct.
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by t ball on May 13, 2009 3:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have to actually look like
I’m doing my job now, enjoyed arguing.
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by t ball on May 13, 2009 3:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah
i have to go too. i feel like progress was made on both sides (however slight)
by ab03 on May 13, 2009 3:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agree with your above point
that there are likely trades out there, but they might have to be patient to find the right team, in which case parking one at DH temporarily seems like a good move in the short run.
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by t ball on May 13, 2009 3:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
why is it so necessary to make a deal though?
"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan
by Dirk Diggler on May 13, 2009 3:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
This makes no sense to me
You don’t trade someone just because of that. You trade them if you can get something of proper value in return. They should most definitely not start shopping one of them just because they’re “too valuable” to DH. That’s ridiculous. If you get a good value offered or negotiated, go right ahead, but don’t immediately start shopping one of them. You have a great, cheap bat on hand, use it. That is value.
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by t ball on May 13, 2009 2:56 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
"You don’t trade someone just because of that. You trade them if you can get something of proper value in return."
Repeat this 1,000 times, please.
by philkid3 on May 13, 2009 3:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yep
The whole “Player X should be traded, because he’s too valuable to be a DH,” leads to things like Travis Hafner being dealt for a AAAA catcher, or Adrian Gonzalez being traded for 50 cents on the dollar.
It’s OK to put a young hitter at DH- there’s no rule that you have to put a guy there who’s old, or who can’t run, or who has injury problems. Put your best lineup on the field.
"I dont care to debate with a troll." - Sharky
by RCCook on May 13, 2009 3:02 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Ok
You don’t trade someone just because of that. You trade them if you can get something of proper value in return.
You don’t trade someone just because of that. You trade them if you can get something of proper value in return.
You don’t trade someone just because of that. You trade them if you can get something of proper value in return.
You don’t trade someone just because of that. You trade them if you can get something of proper value in return.
You don’t trade someone just because of that. You trade them if you can get something of proper value in return.
You don’t trade someone just because of that. You trade them if you can get something of proper value in return.
You don’t trade someone just because of that. You trade them if you can get something of proper value in return.
Ok, I’m not really goint to do it 1000 times, but the point is made.
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by t ball on May 13, 2009 3:09 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
i just want to say
the logical fallacy here is maddening
by ab03 on May 13, 2009 2:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You speak as if Smoak has actually proven himself
Based off a month of AA stats. Alex Gordon anyone?
Davis has 111 games of a .270/.322/.538 lines with good defense in the MLB… I believe Smoak will be good but tap the breaks a little.
the preceding post was a great success.
by DSheppard on May 13, 2009 2:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
tapping the Smoak brakes a bit
I’m not sure that people realize that MaxRam put up superior AA numbers in a much more significant sample size.
Doctor please. Some more of these.
by tricer on May 13, 2009 2:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
at what friggin age? after how many seasons of development?
FFS!!!
mormons stole me and held me against my will with Oklahoma beer and 12+ hour work days.
by Jayslick on May 13, 2009 2:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Davis put up great numbers there as well
and is still only 9 months older than Smoak
If a woman has to choose between catching a fly ball and saving an infant's life, she will choose to save the infant's life without even considering if there are men on base. ~Dave Barry
by NothinG on May 13, 2009 2:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
it's also amazing
how people fail to remember what CD did last year in the minors. I hate that before Smoak ever had a pro at bat, folks were ready to dub him the 1B of the future. He might be that good, but lets give Davis some credit and let Smoak earn the job.
by ncrangerfan on May 13, 2009 2:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
minor league numbers only count if you strike out under 23% of the time
havn’t you heard?
the preceding post was a great success.
by DSheppard on May 13, 2009 2:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Everyone here is making huge assumptions
about Davis vs. Smoak in the long run. Smoak would have to be terrible to make a big difference at 1B, and I don’t think he is. Obviously, the team will have a good idea based on watching the players what to do when the time comes.
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by t ball on May 13, 2009 2:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
and
scott servias has said point blank that he thinks Davis is currently the better 1B defender. If true, then you are basically advocating playing a slightly worse lineup for the sake of the potential rookies feelings being spared which I don’t think makes a whole lot of sense.
by bushe on May 13, 2009 2:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think the answer is obvious
you decide who you think is better at 1B and the other is the DH. You want both of those bats in the lineup. If you get a great trade offer for one of them take it, but otherwise enjoy the bats.
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by t ball on May 13, 2009 2:39 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
you undervaluing defense a lot
quite substantially
by ab03 on May 13, 2009 2:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
1B defense
Well, how much of a difference does it make?
Balls hit to the corner, and then making good picks on throws…I tend to think of it as the least relevant IF position, defensively.
"[Font} doesn't turn 19 until the end of May and his heater can already hit 99 on the gun. That's baseball porn." - Jason Parks
by hightowersmith on May 13, 2009 2:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It can make a bunch of difference.
The last three years, Pujols has been worth around 2+ wins above an average first baseman just in the field alone (by +/-). That’s extremely significant, and it’s how well Davis has played this year so far. And it’s close to how well people think Smoak can play.
I think Tball, though, is saying that it’s not going to be a very significant difference between Davis and Smoak, however. And that I agree with. But I’d still rather have the better fielder in the field.
by philkid3 on May 13, 2009 2:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
2nd paragraph
exactly what I mean. And I’d rather have the better one fielding, whoever it is.
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by t ball on May 13, 2009 2:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
maybe 24 runs
that is Davis’ projected UZR value over the course of the season. So far it says he has saved over 4 runs. Pujols is usually the best and he saves about 10 runs a year.
by bushe on May 13, 2009 2:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
"Pujols is usually the best and he saves about 10 runs a year."
This is why tball is skeptical that Davis is going to sustain a 24-runs-saved defensive pace over the course of a full season.
by Snark on May 13, 2009 2:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
And Michael Young has already hit 7 home runs and 12 doubles.
by Snark on May 13, 2009 3:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
4 runs by itself is enough
as long as he plays average here on out, that is just fine
by ab03 on May 13, 2009 3:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not saying 4 runs is bad.
I’m saying that extrapolating Davis’ performance through 1/5 of the season is not an especially good way to answer the question of how much difference first-base defense makes.
by Snark on May 13, 2009 3:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
4 runs above averate at first base makes 4 runs of difference.
Similar to 4 runs above average at shortstop.
by philkid3 on May 13, 2009 3:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Then I'm confused.
What exactly are you asking?
by philkid3 on May 13, 2009 3:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not asking anything.
The question was raised, “how much difference does first-base defense make,” and someone suggested maybe 24 runs over the course of the season, based on Davis’ current pace. I was just pointing out the unlikeliness of that sort of difference.
by Snark on May 13, 2009 3:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think they were saying that he would match that exactly
He’s been worth 4 runs so far. He’s on pace to be worth 24 runs. Pujols is usually among the best 1B in the league and is worth 10 runs. So, after a month of the season or so, Davis is nearly halfway to reaching that 10 run mark. As long as he doesn’t see his defense slip significantly, he has a very good chance of being worth at least 10 runs defensively.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
by Gdawg on May 13, 2009 3:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
obviously
I put that in there to show that the UZR thing is probably a sample size thing. Was Utley really 2x as betterer than the next best 2B last year vs average? Probably not but he was definitely the best and so far the same goes for CD.
by bushe on May 13, 2009 2:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Undervaluing defense?
No, I’m not. I just said put the better glove at 1B. How is that undervaluing defense?
If you think they should immediately shop the lesser glove, you are grossly undervaluing having an awesome, cheap bat in the lineup.
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by t ball on May 13, 2009 2:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
above you said
the difference in defense at 1B is COMPLETELY IRRELEVANT, people. I don’t care how good Davis is, that is not a reason to keep him there.
In response to someone saying DH Davis and play Smoak, which I took (along with 1002 yeses) as being agreement. This course seems to advocate that it doesn’t matter who is better you should always stick Davis at DH, which I hope you agree is not the smart choice.
You also proclaim that
Smoak is likely to be more consistent with the bat over his careerwhich I’m not sure 50 games of AFL and AA is enough to show particularly given what CD did pretty much all of last year (in 3 different leagues).
Yay we got Smoak and he looks good, but the people throwing dirt on known players to make way for him, particularly barely past rookie threshold players, is just frustrating. I hope to get 5.8 more years out of Davis before having to seriously work on the Boras issue.
by bushe on May 13, 2009 2:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm overstating
The team will make the eval when they feel Smoak is ready. But Smoak has the track record of being the more patient and complete hitter. Davis hits HRs, strikes out a lot. Both seem likely to be very valuable bats, but Smoak looks like a better bet to have fewer outs. All of this is obviously assuming they peak as projected, which we can’t predict.
I am certainly not throwing dirt on Davis or anyone else. Anyone who says the team HAS to trade one of them is a fool. You trade for value, not because you have “too many” of something.
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by t ball on May 13, 2009 3:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I will cry if the reports are wrong and Smoak ends up sucking there.
Otherwise (and I doubt that happens), I agree.
by philkid3 on May 13, 2009 2:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If he develops into a major league hitter
trade Davis.
4/10/09 - Josh Hamilton's last walk.
by DJCahill on May 13, 2009 1:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yep.
Or trade Cruz, move Davis to LF, and Max to DH.
by cstorm15 on May 13, 2009 1:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
A waste?
People around here are acting as if Davis cannot be moved off of 1b simply because he’s been really good defensively at 1b. We’re not talking about a shortstop here, and we’re not talking about a situation where we’d be replacing Davis at 1b with a substantially worse defender.
The point is that the team has flexibility depending on which prospects pan out and which ones don’t. If in one scenario the team has too many 1b/DH types and not enough outfielders, then Davis could move to the outfield.
And really, I’m not sure that Davis would somehow lose value by DHing or even playing the outfield. If another team was actually interested in trading for him to play 1b, I doubt they’ll conclude he can no longer play 1b defensively at a high level just because he was pushed off the position by Smoak.
by cstorm15 on May 13, 2009 2:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You know what extra trade value you get
for a defensive 1B versus a mediocre 1B? Someone might throw in the equivalent of Willie Eyre.
4/10/09 - Josh Hamilton's last walk.
by DJCahill on May 13, 2009 3:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
So far Max isn't forcing any decisions
by groundingout on May 13, 2009 1:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
We trade him
as he’s the oldest of the three and has the lowest offensive ceiling.
"Hustle doesn't cost a dime and it looks good." - Pete Rose as Channeled by Marcus Lemon
by FirebatM3 on May 13, 2009 1:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
And the most questionable defense
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by t ball on May 13, 2009 2:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
why exactly does max have the lowest offensive ceiling?
mormons stole me and held me against my will with Oklahoma beer and 12+ hour work days.
by Jayslick on May 13, 2009 2:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
good question
but I don’t think he’ll hit better than Davis or Smoak, and even if he did, not enough to offset his glove issues.
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by t ball on May 13, 2009 2:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
thats great but what happens if TT or Salty is traded
Max could be perfect for a backup masher C/DH when necesary. Him and Davis are guys that give this club flexibility for trades.
Davis, Smoak, TT, Salty, Max, Hank, Andruw, Byrd…
All are peices to the 2010 season, Maybe the Yanks need help Andruw + TT + a Boscan type gets you a Hughes. Maybe Boston has to respond and Pappi aint cutting it at DH and Tek is old and we can pull a Hank + Max + Pads + low a guy for Buchh…
that may not be realistic but you can start to see how the pieces fit for 2 pretty damn big trades
mormons stole me and held me against my will with Oklahoma beer and 12+ hour work days.
by Jayslick on May 13, 2009 2:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Where would the Red Sox put Padilla?
And why would they want Ramirez as a starting catcher?
by Snark on May 13, 2009 2:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
hell if i know
Lester got hit by a bus, we traded TT to Yanks b/c they dragged their feet and Max is the man!!!!
heh
mormons stole me and held me against my will with Oklahoma beer and 12+ hour work days.
by Jayslick on May 13, 2009 2:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
These are not zero sum decisions here.
Obviously all these decisions are made depending on the rest of your personnel.
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by t ball on May 13, 2009 3:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
because he has the least power.
the preceding post was a great success.
by DSheppard on May 13, 2009 2:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Trade him for Kenny Lofton
"Was this really necsarry?" - cowpoke/hurler hurley
by trza on May 13, 2009 2:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think maxram is gonna be a masher
and would be the perfect DH for us
by Ty R on May 13, 2009 1:43 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I think
you should learn how to use the reply option.
"Hustle doesn't cost a dime and it looks good." - Pete Rose as Channeled by Marcus Lemon
by FirebatM3 on May 13, 2009 1:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
dont take that shit from him Ty
;)
mormons stole me and held me against my will with Oklahoma beer and 12+ hour work days.
by Jayslick on May 13, 2009 2:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Trade Max this year
with Blalock and one of the farm pitchers (anyone other than Holland, Feliz, and the entire Hickory rotation) for good RP and prospecty 3B.
Your 2009 Snow Monkey Ambassador
by Parman on May 13, 2009 2:00 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Is there anyone out there
that thinks this team might try to move MY at the break ?
When asked about Smoak’s future arrival, Davis talked about possibly moving back to third “if it would help the team.” He didn’t say anything about being willing to DH.
Two different, yet related thoughts.
by ncrangerfan on May 13, 2009 2:32 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I just don't see that happening
for many reasons. Davis is not a good 3B, and they made Young move for defensive reasons.
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by t ball on May 13, 2009 2:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The people who want to move him back to third are making me go Bruce Banner.
by philkid3 on May 13, 2009 2:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
i don't think
he’s a good 3B. I do think though that he wants to play in the field. I have a suspicion that CD, a talented young player, doesn’t want to ride the pine all game.
Like I said, they were two different thoughts, but kinda related.
by ncrangerfan on May 13, 2009 2:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
i don't care what he wants
if he continues to play 1B at that level, then he plays 1B for the rest of his life.
by ab03 on May 13, 2009 2:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If he insists on playing the field over helping the team then I don't want him playing for the Texas Rangers.
by philkid3 on May 13, 2009 2:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That goes for Smoak, to.
And in a related sense, went for Michael Young.
by philkid3 on May 13, 2009 2:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think he's said before
He’ll play wherever the team wants him to play. For the next 5 and a half years, he has very little say on it anyways.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
by Gdawg on May 13, 2009 3:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Law wants to bench Francoeur (via Facebook status) and send down Davis.
Both so far largely deserve to start for their clubs according to most defensive evidence.
So either he ignores fielding entirely, which would be frustrating, or he has something more thorough for defensive analysis that I can’t find on the series of tubes, which would make me jealous.
by philkid3 on May 13, 2009 2:33 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Someone should ask him
if he thinks Tex/Berkman/Giambi/Loney/Lee, and since he is only .001 away, Konerko. Only 3 1B have more homers. Not even taking his 1-22 start out of the equation his OPS is still over .800, which kinda sucks for a 1B but he is 23.
by groundingout on May 13, 2009 2:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
at least we have something to talk about
besides the catcher to Boston trades.
Doctor please. Some more of these.
by tricer on May 13, 2009 3:02 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I hope Salt guns down
Ellsbury in Fenway.
The 2008-2009 Dallas Mavericks are the biggest teases in the world.
"We love Wash.....As a team, we want Wash as the head of that team." Hamilton
"The NFL made me undergo a psychiatric evaluation......Please. It was an accident. If I wanted to post a picture of my penis I wouldn't have been all hunched over."- Chris Cooley.
by sprite on May 13, 2009 3:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would rule out Oakland at this point.
They look really, really bad.
Wonderboy, what is the secret of your power? Wonderboy, won't you take me far away from the mucky-muck now. -- Tenacious D
by rooster on May 13, 2009 3:11 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Smoak to the majors? Not yet. But soon.
At the All-Star break. Move him up to AAA soon. Trade Blalock at the ASB. Promote Smoak as his replacement.
Wonderboy, what is the secret of your power? Wonderboy, won't you take me far away from the mucky-muck now. -- Tenacious D
by rooster on May 13, 2009 3:13 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs




















