New Prospectus Hit List out
by Adam J. Morris on May 15, 2009 11:30 AM CDT
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Mariners 25th; A's 23rd
FWIW.
¡Prefiero morir de pie que vivir siempre arrodillado!
by inactive lsb user on May 15, 2009 11:34 AM CDT reply actions
Right there
Where they should be after we beat their ass!
2009 Texas Rangers: Why The Hell Not Us?--ghtd36 on May 13, 2009
I love that
I’d love to see the Angels drop in the next ranking.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
They will once the Rangers
get done with them. Knock on wood.
2009 Texas Rangers: Why The Hell Not Us?--ghtd36 on May 13, 2009
Ouch...quit it.
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008
I am, but quit
knocking me in the head…it hurts!
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008
oh dear
BP getting on the bandwagon sure makes my irrational exuberance hard to resist.
by Clownballoon on May 15, 2009 11:47 AM CDT up reply actions
Pretty damning write-up
I like the combination of kudos and reality-check.
"[Font} doesn't turn 19 until the end of May and his heater can already hit 99 on the gun. That's baseball porn." - Jason Parks
by hightowersmith on May 15, 2009 11:47 AM CDT reply actions
Wow...
I don’t even know what to say. 4th. Really? I think that’s a little high, but it’s nice to see the Rangers get a little love and respect from somebody.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
x
I think that’s a little high, but it’s nice to see the Rangers get a little love and respect from somebody.
Well, they use a straight formula for the rankings — I think it is an average of W/L, Pyth. W/L, 2nd order W/L (using EQR and EQRA instead of actual runs), and 3rd order W/L (adjusting for strength of schedule).
So it is really more love and respect from something — the formula — rather than the person doing the rankings.
by Adam J. Morris on May 15, 2009 11:54 AM CDT up reply actions
I understand the formula...
I guess I just have a hard time believing this is the 4th best team in baseball.
They certainly have played that way the last few weeks, I just hope they can keep it up.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
Well, they're not the 4th best team
but they’ve played the 4th best is what the formula says.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
I don't think it is the 4th best team in baseball, either
I think it not unreasonable to say, however, that they’ve played at that level so far this season.
by Adam J. Morris on May 15, 2009 12:25 PM CDT up reply actions
I get
that the pitching staff’s strikeout and homerun ratios are hair worse than last year, but I’m getting tired of hearing that the pitching hasn’t been THAT good and that they are all about to be exposed.
x
I’m getting tired of hearing that the pitching hasn’t been THAT good and that they are all about to be exposed.
I don’t think anyone is saying that.
If anything, they are saying that the pitchers are performing about as well as they did last year, and thus they aren’t about to be exposed.
by Adam J. Morris on May 15, 2009 11:53 AM CDT up reply actions
If anything, they are saying that the pitchers are performing about as well as they did last year
I don’t even think they’re saying that.
Worse HR rate and lower K rate (with the BB rate holding steady, I guess?). Anyway those are a couple of yikes…
"[Font} doesn't turn 19 until the end of May and his heater can already hit 99 on the gun. That's baseball porn." - Jason Parks
by hightowersmith on May 15, 2009 12:00 PM CDT up reply actions
What would really cause consternation
Would be to hold up at the top of the division despite indicators that some regression, possibly even steep regression, is likely. Not that it will happen, but more than one or two scenarios might support just such a thing. (a) Tipping the pythag a dozen or so games (b) enhancing team OBP and situational run production © Increased power from Young, Blalock, and Hamilton either sustaining or picking back up the rest of the way. Otherwise, every win a dogfight.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912) also -
"Telephone, n. An invention of the devil which abrogates some of the advantages of making a disagreeable person keep his distance."
~Ambrose Bierce
by Ed Coffin on May 15, 2009 12:51 PM CDT up reply actions
Consternation for us or the rest of the world?
Wonderboy, what is the secret of your power? Wonderboy, won't you take me far away from the mucky-muck now. -- Tenacious D
For Analysts
Who hold a lot of disbelief in circumstance and luck. They are indeed experts at the craft of analysis, but sometimes not so much at anticipating how baseball will play out.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912) also -
"Telephone, n. An invention of the devil which abrogates some of the advantages of making a disagreeable person keep his distance."
~Ambrose Bierce
by Ed Coffin on May 15, 2009 2:45 PM CDT up reply actions
I guess the homer in me
wants these pitchers, specifically the starting pitchers to get some credit for what they are doing. I’m probably interperting these things incorrectly, but I feel like the talking heads are saying, “don’t be fooled, these are the same old Rangers.”
by ncrangerfan on May 15, 2009 12:58 PM CDT up reply actions
Screw those talking heads
Our pitchers have been consistent for once and if nobody wants to give them any credit that’s cool. We just need to continue to keep proving those idiots wrong. Its never good to be the favorite anyway. We need to embrace the roll of the underdog. How do you make people give you credit for doing good things? Continue to do them consistently. At the end of the season, we can collectively say: We told you so. I love it man…1st place and a staff ERA under 5!!! Walk offs galore, what a week for the Texas Rangers. BTW, Chris Davis is using a heavier bat, they say that it is helping his production a lot.
by IanKinslerMVP on May 15, 2009 2:21 PM CDT up reply actions
OT:
Can you steal the AP photos? I’ve seen several I’d like to make my background but haven’t found a way to do this.
This is the Texas Rangers, professional destroyers of hope, we're talking about. - BAC
I don't think the AP police are
going to come to your house and get you.
2009 Texas Rangers: Why The Hell Not Us?--ghtd36 on May 13, 2009
Flying that Gooner flag at half mast today?
You can’t take them from LSB.
This is the Texas Rangers, professional destroyers of hope, we're talking about. - BAC
Sure you can
The will never know! Try it it feels so right. lol
2009 Texas Rangers: Why The Hell Not Us?--ghtd36 on May 13, 2009
Uhh you can’t save them but thanks anyways!
This is the Texas Rangers, professional destroyers of hope, we're talking about. - BAC
Uhh I have on my hard drive
You are welcome!
2009 Texas Rangers: Why The Hell Not Us?--ghtd36 on May 13, 2009
i have been doing this
on espn, if you go to game recap and then click photos you can then see the ap photos and then set as background
we have played poor teams lately
even the biggest homer can see that. I love that this team is finding ways to win games instead of lose them, and the defensive upgrade is justifiably being lauded, but we could easily be back around 10-12 in a week’s time.
As has been said elsewhere, I think this weekend series against an Angels team that a) is just as hot as we are and b) knows what it takes to get to the top and stay there, will tell us a lot about this team.
I know I sound grumpy, but I really want to know how this pitching staff will fare against top tier offenses before I start drinking the coolaid.
What is this, Horseville? Because I'm surrounded by naysayers.
Agreed
Since when do the Angels strike fear in pitchers? Especially without their main bopper out of the lineup. They are essentially a National League team in the American League. I do respect what they do: aggressive on the basepaths and solid pitching/defense, but they don’t have a “murderers’ row” like the RANGERS baby! And as long as our pitching holds up like it has been, I like our chances against the Angels. The Rangers offense allows some room for error, however, the Angels pitching has to be extra fine, to squeak out those one run games. They are good at doing that but we had a hard time with them because our pitching was always bad. Now that its better maybe we have a legit shot at the AL West. Lets face it Vlad is not Vlad anymore, and Tex is gone (that traitor).
by IanKinslerMVP on May 15, 2009 2:17 PM CDT up reply actions
they aren't
they are a middle tier offense. but they still represent a better challenge than what we have faced to this point. As I said, I am waiting to see how we fair against the top tier offenses (not necessarily LAA) before I really get excited about this pitching staff.
What is this, Horseville? Because I'm surrounded by naysayers.
Sure we have played poor teams lately but...
…Last year they were losing these same games against these same poor teams. Fact is this team is better than last years team.
2009 Texas Rangers: Why The Hell Not Us?--ghtd36 on May 13, 2009
it has seemed in years past
that our record against bad teams have hurt us the most. we usually have a decent record against the better teams in the league, with exception to the red sox. i think if we can continue a record similar to years past against good teams and keep beating the bad teams, then we are probably a playoff team.
I don’t have any concrete evidence for this, just the way it seems.
BTW, our second order record is 20.7-13.3
Which would suggest we may also be slightly (to an irrelevant degree) unlucky so far, if anything.
I'd really like to see
From the rather short sample so far in 2009 – a precise view of how we’ve fared against those teams with an approximate .480 W-L percentage. Let’s see what their record was when we played them, which pitchers we faced and their metrics for effectiveness up to that point and historically, and among the games the Rangers won, a plus and minus on runs scored for each team from game beginning to game end. Maybe it’s statistically irrelevant, but would paint a seriously good word picture for those predicting substantial regression.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912) also -
"Telephone, n. An invention of the devil which abrogates some of the advantages of making a disagreeable person keep his distance."
~Ambrose Bierce
by Ed Coffin on May 15, 2009 2:51 PM CDT up reply actions
Sigh
I’m a living example of “good with concept and lacking in tools”
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912) also -
"Telephone, n. An invention of the devil which abrogates some of the advantages of making a disagreeable person keep his distance."
~Ambrose Bierce
by Ed Coffin on May 15, 2009 3:02 PM CDT up reply actions
why would that scare you
RISP is just a fluke. they obviously came through in some pretty clutch situations anyway.
the preceding post was a great success.
It worries me how often we get runners to second and/or third or bases loaded,
and can’t plate any runs because everybody wants to swing for the fence. What happened to the plate discipline we saw last year?
This.
¡Prefiero morir de pie que vivir siempre arrodillado!
by inactive lsb user on May 15, 2009 6:15 PM CDT up reply actions
Oh, whatever
He didn’t do it all by himself, and he only played 2/3 of a season.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
I'm ready to see him pitch against a real offense. Blue Jays aside, he's pitched against some standard-to-sub-standard line-ups.
Not complaining though. He’s doing what he needs to be doing.
by oc on May 15, 2009 2:06 PM CDT up reply actions
Sub-standard line-up?
Since when is the White Sox line up a walk in the park? And you gotta remember oc, he didn’t have this much success last year when he won 9 games. He had an ERA in the 5s. So the record was deceiving. But if you watch him, he’s dealing! He’s got a lot of confidence and he’s mixing it up well. I don’t consider the White Sox a standard or sub standard line up. They got a lot of veterans in that line up. Thome, Konerko, Dye, and Quinten is not an easy middle of the order. Granted, two of those guys are left handed, Dye and Quinten are right handed beasts. Matt threw 14 shut out innings against that, so I like really like what I’m seeing.
by IanKinslerMVP on May 15, 2009 2:10 PM CDT up reply actions
White Sox
. BA OBP SLG. OPS
.251 .321 .391 .712
- league rank -
. 13 . 12 . 12. 12
by oc on May 15, 2009 2:28 PM CDT up reply actions
they've scored 4.6 runs against everyone else
and 2.5 against us. sure they have been meh anyway, but they are only last because of harrison and co.
the preceding post was a great success.
Also Harrison pitched some gems last year.
He shut down the Rays. He shutout the A’s. He had that debut against the Angels.
He’s thrown well before. He’s just never shown consistency, which he is finally doing now
by oc on May 15, 2009 2:31 PM CDT up reply actions
Jason Parks
anyone else noticed that since he went to Mexico the man crush has been cruising? Restraining order perhaps?
Thank God for Matt Harrison
Not just Harrison but the rest of our starters too…they are saving our bullpen and in fact, NOT giving them enough work. Padilla with two consecutive one hit efforts. Harrison, a stud for the last 4 outings. Millwood, being consistent and pitching 7 or more innings in all of his starts. And finally Scott Feldman doing his job as a #5 and doing a decent job at that. I hope they can give Holland a couple of starts, but he seems to already be a key piece in the bullpen. Mr. Morris, I’ve believed for the last 20 years…Juan Gone was my favorite. But these pitchers are looking good right now, and not just like the Hellings and Olivers of years past. They look legitimate. I just hope this good fortune lasts. Our pitching may still not be the BEST, but they don’t have to be with this line up. Going into yesterday’s ninth inning, I didn’t think we’d win it right there, but I thought that Chris Davis was going to at least tie it, luckily he crushed it and we had our second consecutive walk off. BTW I hate Ichiro
Right Now They're That Good
It’s been fun to watch. I hope they continue to be as good as they have been, but given that these are the Texas Rangers, they’re going to have to play well for more than just a couple weeks to sell me.
After watching Millwood the last couple years, I just have a really hard time believing he can maintain what he’s doing. Most of you know I’m a huge Padilla fan, but to some extent I feel the same way about him. I’m actually more confident in guys like Harrison and Feldman, but realize that even though they’re pitching well now, I wonder if their inexperience will catch up with them. I do like their stuff, though. McCarthy is still a huge question mark at best, at least in my mind.
On the other hand they’ve started well, completely unlike the past two seasons. And they’ve done it the right way, with pitching and a defense that I have faith in. They’ve beaten some sub-.500 teams, but it seems like they’ve been facing a lot of good pitching.
I like the position players but still don’t like their collective approach at the plate. I’d much rather see them being patient and trying to hit liners. Blalock in the cleanup spot makes gives me agita. At this point in his career, he’s somebody you hit 8th or something so that you can have some power at the bottom of your lineup. He’s not a dynamic hitter by any stretch of the imagination. Anyway, when they face the good teams in this league they’re going to have to be patient and make their pitchers work for their outs. I will say that I’ve seen several players (Davis, Murphy) have better at bats recently, but where have all the BB’s gone???
We’re going to see a regression by the whole team, most likely.
I know this post is getting long, but I don’t want to be all doom and gloom. They deserve credit. The defense is great and the pitchers are making better pitches than they were in years past. I mean a bad MLB offense still scores runs…they’re not as bad as the Rangers made them look. Last year they would have made a bad lineup look good and sometimes great. This is progress. And while I think that some things may regress one thing should do nothing but get better, and that’s the defense. So the pitching will probably look better at the end of the year, even if it doesn’t look as good as it looks now.
And you never know. Maybe they’ve caught lightning in a bottle and they’re going to win 100 games. You never really know…dramatic turnarounds have been made before, certainly. If they can get 550 innings from whoever ends up as their three best SPs, anything can happen.
The bullpen still sucks, though.
Back to work for me. It’s been a nice daycation.
OT: Andrus
In a discussion over at BtB, I estimated Andrus is en route for about a 3-3.5 win season (by FanGraphs numbers). That’s well beyond what I expected from him, but it’s also really interesting from a more frivilous aspect.
He’s compared to Edgar Renteria constantly. Almost every scout or prospect prognosticator I’ve read says “next Renteria.” They all seem to agree on it. Not only that, PECOTA gave him, at one point, the highest similarity score I think I’ve ever seen to Renteria, and it’s still extremely high (62) and ties for his best comp (with Luis Rivas). So machines and people all seem to want to say he’s just a clone of Edgar Renteria.
Renteria’s rookie season via Sean Smith: 3.3
Neat!
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