This amused me
by Adam J. Morris on May 18, 2009 12:00 PM CDT
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PrintThis post over at FanGraphs by Dave Cameron, talking about how the Rangers pitching isn't really any better this year, but their fielding is much better, prompted the following in the comments section:
Steve says:I’m not sure what an FIP is, but it’s an example of a useless stat. It doesn’t make much sense and certainly doesn’t effect anything directly. If a pitcher saws off almost every batter he faces and gets weak dribbler after week dribbler to an infielder for an easy out. Using the theory from this ridiculous article, that would decrease the pitcher’s strikeout rate, therefore making him a bad pitcher. If you watched the game instead of just crunching the numbers, you would notice that the Rangers pitchers are indeed much better this year. You should at least have half a brain and believe in the power of money. The #1 and #2 pitchers are in contract years, and use all the FIP’s you want to, buddy. There’s much more statistical proof of guys performing better when money’s on the line. But don’t write about things you know nothing about. You obviously never watch Ranger games, so don’t comment on them. You just sound dumb.
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First rule of posting:
When attacking somebody else’s intelligence, it is imperative that you appear intelligent by using proper spelling and grammar. Otherwise you look like a double dumbass—once for writing like a poorly educated dolt, and the second time for having the temerity to call somebody else “dumb”.
wut r u tahking about, lolz
your dum, lolz
The 40 Trumps All!!!
You want the mustache on or off? ... ... ... Too bad.
by thedirkatron on May 18, 2009 12:29 PM CDT up reply actions
I know not to argue against someone who uses the word
Temerity.
"...like some Russian priest fresh off a bottle of potato vodka and a box of cigars." -t ball
by rangerdanger on May 18, 2009 1:36 PM CDT up reply actions
Ooh
I can’t wait to see Dave’s response to that. He can be pretty prickly- not that this guy doesn’t deserve it.
"I dont care to debate with a troll." - Sharky
If only
folks would watch the game instead of just crunching the numbers.
"I'd praised catcher Max Ramirez two weeks ago, but after his continued struggles I'm increasingly convinced he's not going to pan out." - crops.mlblogs.com
If only
folks would watch the game instead of doing the wave
agreed
You would have thought the wave would have died out after 40 plus years of sucking
"calmer than you are dude" Walter (Big Lebowski)
by Arlington Stadium Legend on May 18, 2009 1:30 PM CDT up reply actions
you can use numbers but you do need to watch games and be smart enough to know how to use those numbers
my pet peeve is people using OPS on singles hitters. “His OPS sux” and your response is he’s a singles hitter with a OBP 60 points higher than his BA and its like they dont even understand the concept.
the world isnt perfect…
mormons stole me and held me against my will with Oklahoma beer and 12+ hour work days.
Wow
that’s hilarious. I love stuff like sentence fragments – complete with two spellings for the same word -
If a pitcher saws off almost every batter he faces and gets weak dribbler after week dribbler to an infielder for an easy out.
from a poster trying to prove someone else is dumb.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
that wasn't a misspelling
the first dribbler was weak as in not hit hard, the second dribbler was hit even worse because it takes a week to get to the infielder. See, spelling was correct, it was an interpretation problem
"calmer than you are dude" Walter (Big Lebowski)
by Arlington Stadium Legend on May 18, 2009 1:19 PM CDT up reply actions
well than
that is an even weaker dribbler than originally thought.
"calmer than you are dude" Walter (Big Lebowski)
by Arlington Stadium Legend on May 18, 2009 1:29 PM CDT up reply actions
Would that make the post
A drool ?
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912) also -
"Telephone, n. An invention of the devil which abrogates some of the advantages of making a disagreeable person keep his distance."
~Ambrose Bierce
by Ed Coffin on May 18, 2009 1:53 PM CDT up reply actions
If it is that weak
its probably going to be an infield hit. So, that makes your pitcher worse. This guy is dumb if he didn’t think of that.
by NorCalRangersFan on May 18, 2009 2:50 PM CDT up reply actions
I agree
Everyone knows the formula for contract year is more much accurate than this FIP nonsense
ConYr = Performance ^ 3
I had a paper route when I was a kid. I was supposed to go to 2,000 houses. Or two dumpsters.
What if performance is less than 1?
by Telegraph on May 18, 2009 12:37 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
i wish
i could make that entire quote my signature.
What is this, Horseville? Because I'm surrounded by naysayers.
I just can't get past that opening line
I’m not sure what an FIP is, but it’s an example of a useless stat
So I don’t know what this stat is, but its useless.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
FIP: Fisted-hits Infield Putouts
Wonderboy, what is the secret of your power? Wonderboy, won't you take me far away from the mucky-muck now. -- Tenacious D
well it's useless to HIM
he should’ve stated that
"Hang-Dai, Wu...Hang-Fu$&ing-Dai"
by Walter Sobchak on May 18, 2009 12:54 PM CDT up reply actions
The Rangers pitching is awful this year. Luckily the rest of the team had did learnded how to catch.
When I see a solar eclipse I think "oh no, is the moon eating the sun?"
by Pocket Ninja on May 18, 2009 12:27 PM CDT reply actions 3 recs
Who learned you how to spoke?
Rock Flag & Eagle Radio: Thursdays 10 PM - 1 AM on FM 88.7 The Choice
"Computers can’t measure the size of a man’s heart."
- Hawk Harrelson, MLB Guru/Analyst
but his BABIP suggests
that it’s all luck!
Man, I love winning! You know? It's like better than losing!
What eyeballs suggest
Is that his LD% should be up to the moon. Then again, someone will surely ask if LD isn’t another useless stat.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912) also -
"Telephone, n. An invention of the devil which abrogates some of the advantages of making a disagreeable person keep his distance."
~Ambrose Bierce
by Ed Coffin on May 18, 2009 2:00 PM CDT up reply actions
Strange
If you watched the game instead of just crunching the numbers, you would notice that the Rangers pitchers are indeed much better this year. You should at least have half a brain and believe in the power of money.
Can you watch a game and tell which players are in a contract year? I can’t.
If they zoom in enough on the players' faces you can tell.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
You want the mustache on or off? ... ... ... Too bad.
by thedirkatron on May 18, 2009 12:34 PM CDT up reply actions
that doesn't even look like Millwood...
must be the clean shaven aspect
"Hang-Dai, Wu...Hang-Fu$&ing-Dai"
by Walter Sobchak on May 18, 2009 12:55 PM CDT up reply actions
That's Padilla, I think.
But what do I know.
All NWI’s look the same to me.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
You want the mustache on or off? ... ... ... Too bad.
by thedirkatron on May 18, 2009 1:50 PM CDT up reply actions
I have watched
every Ranger game and had those same thoughts regarding FIP. It’s not the “tell all” stat that it’s purported to be.
I was a Ranger fan when being a Rangers fan wasn't cool.
except that there is no "tell all" stat
and anyone on here or over at fangraphs will probably agree with that statement
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
-
Scout to KG: On Sandoval: "Man, that fat [expletive]-er can hit."
by knockoutking on May 18, 2009 1:28 PM CDT up reply actions
I agree there is no
tell all stat. But FIP is used as if it is by analysts all the time.
I was a Ranger fan when being a Rangers fan wasn't cool.
As it should be.
It’s an interesting stat that has a place when analyzing pitcher true performance.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
You want the mustache on or off? ... ... ... Too bad.
by thedirkatron on May 18, 2009 1:51 PM CDT up reply actions
true performance
No. When analyzing a pitcher’s K, free pass and HR performance.
I hate the Yankees. Especially when they hit a walkoff.
It helps
in determining how much the defense is helping and hurting the pitcher. Its not a perfect measure, but its much better than ERA and RA.
"I'd praised catcher Max Ramirez two weeks ago, but after his continued struggles I'm increasingly convinced he's not going to pan out." - crops.mlblogs.com
i will say I like the stat
but it isn’t squarely defense. The defense is making plays, but there is something to not hitting the sweet part of the bat. What is the Rangers’ pitchers line drive % this year compared to last year.
You can’t ignore the fact that on every night there is a spectacular play being made.
If a woman has to choose between catching a fly ball and saving an infant's life, she will choose to save the infant's life without even considering if there are men on base. ~Dave Barry
x
What is the Rangers’ pitchers line drive % this year compared to last year.
20.0% in 2009
20.6% in 2008
by Adam J. Morris on May 18, 2009 2:40 PM CDT up reply actions
LD% tidbits
April-22.0%
May-17.1%
Last 30 days-18.8%
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
true performance
Yes. It has a place in the conversation.
It’s not the “one true stat” (there’s no such thing) and it’s not the “answer”, but it certainly has a place in any attempt to divine what that “answer” truly is.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
You want the mustache on or off? ... ... ... Too bad.
by thedirkatron on May 18, 2009 4:23 PM CDT up reply actions
If there is anything close to the one true stat
Its a stat like RAR or WAR that converts a player’s stats into runs/wins. That’s as close as it gets.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
yep, that is why im not a big fan
pitcher gives up 20 doubles in a game but no walks and no homers and he’ll have a great FIP
that is just inherently wrong
it is massively slanted to groundball pitchers
Responding to myself
I just dont think there is a true stat…
it is imperative to look at everything available including actual game footage to make a proper evaluation
i also think ERA takes an unfair beating from the sabremetric geek squad
ultimately ERA simply tells you how effective the pitcher is at not allowing runs. Is it incredibly flawed at displaying what the pitcher actually did? yes, but it also tells you in the simplest format whether or not he did his ultimate job which is simply preventing runners from scoring
if you believe in regression to the mean and everything leveling off, ERA will ultimately reflect other values as luck and averages level out
If a pitcher gives up 20 doubles in a game
there is a reasonable chance the OF play was fairly weak.
"I'd praised catcher Max Ramirez two weeks ago, but after his continued struggles I'm increasingly convinced he's not going to pan out." - crops.mlblogs.com
The point is merely that it is incredibly flawed
nothing i said was untrue from a hypothetical standpoint
FIP only cares about homeruns, walks, and ks…is that the only way to judge a pitching performance?
Doctrinaire DIPSian theory holds...
…that a pitcher has very little control over whether a ball in play (i.e., anything other than a HR, BB or K) goes for a hit or not. That is mostly defense, not the pitcher.
by Adam J. Morris on May 19, 2009 9:21 AM CDT up reply actions
So a batter is
just as likely to get a base hit on a pitch right down the middle of the plate as he is on a pitch at the knees on the outside corner?
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
Point of clarification.
Starters are pitching substantially better than last year.
2008 SP FIP: 5.08
2009 SP FIP: 4.82
About 0.25 FIP difference. That’s a noticeable improvement. It is a bit of an apples-to-oranges comparison, of course. So…
2008 MAY SP FIP: 4.55
2009 MAY SP FIP: 3.82
Statistics in both May 2008 and 2009 were compiled against no-HR, no-BB offenses.
So, yeah, this guy posted a great foot-in-mouth joke, and it was unintentional and yet sincere all in one. But, he does have a point in that Cameron hasn’t really dug all that deeply to make his argument. During this 13-2 stretch, the SP really has been much improved over last year, even against similarly impotent teams.
Wonderboy, what is the secret of your power? Wonderboy, won't you take me far away from the mucky-muck now. -- Tenacious D
Ok, I agree with that to a point
but you can’t just cherry pick the best part of 2009 and stack it up against all of 2008. I think it is valid to compare all of 2009 – even the sucky first couple weeks before they got hot – to 2008. If the pitching goes through a rough patch soon, that FIP might climb right back up to over 5.00.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
And if that happens, we will probably play .500 ball.
Were in 1st place because the pitching has been better. The pitching has allowed us to be a winning team. The pitching combined with defense has allowed us to be a really really good team over the last 15 games.
Yeah. If the pitching gets poor again, say against the Yankees-Red Sox-Blue Jays in early June,
the FIP very likely would be over 5. If you take the current K/9, use BB/9 of 4.0 (much higher than now, and much nearer to last year), and use HR/9 that is typical of NYY-BOS-TOR, the FIP is 5.36.
If the Rangers SP pitch as they do not (BB/9, K/9 from May) and the NYY-BOS-TOR HR/9 is used, the Ranger SP FIP is 4.82, which is a complete coincidence that it matches the 2009 FIP to date.
In response to t ball, I didn’t intend to cherry pick; I meant to compare the most comparable periods, that is I meant to clarify. It’s just fortunate happenstance that May 2008 and 2009 featured a schedule with teams filled with wimpy, impatient hitters. I think comparing the Rangers’ SP preforamnce against those similar teams is more reasonable than comparing the 1.5 months of 2009 versus the entire 2008 season.
Of course, there is no way to predict, at least to my knowledge, whether the SP will continue to pitch for the rest of the season like they have in May. I sure hope they do!
I’m also not saying that defense should be overlooked. I’m just pointing out that there is clear statistical evidence that the Rangers’ SP are performing much better than last year. The defense helps immensely and as evidence the difference between the 2009 MAY SP FIP and ERA is 0.94 (3.82-2.88). Two, possibly three, things have happened this May. (1) The SP is walking significantly fewer hitters, (2) the defense has been a weapon, and (3) there may be some luck involved in a few more balls being near fielders than at other times. We’ll have to wait a while to evaluate (3); at least wait long enough to see if the Rangers’ BABIP stays below the league average, which I think is something that good fielding teams can do, though above its currently anemic value in May of 0.236.
The BABIP is second lowest in ML. Last month, when the starters’ performance was more typical, the Rangers’ BABIP was middle of the pack in ML at 0.305. I think that speaks well of the defense that the BABIP was been league average or much below for the entire season. In May, it also points to the low LD% of Seattle, Oakland, and the White Sox.
Wonderboy, what is the secret of your power? Wonderboy, won't you take me far away from the mucky-muck now. -- Tenacious D
Contract years
Can anyone link to evidence/study/report that there’s no effect?
"[Font} doesn't turn 19 until the end of May and his heater can already hit 99 on the gun. That's baseball porn." - Jason Parks
I certainly can not
But in any endeavor, the combination of fear of failure and monetary incentive can keep the adrenaline level up.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912) also -
"Telephone, n. An invention of the devil which abrogates some of the advantages of making a disagreeable person keep his distance."
~Ambrose Bierce
by Ed Coffin on May 18, 2009 2:07 PM CDT up reply actions
All I know is, 7 wins in a row
Means they must be doing something right. Just throw well and hit well and you will win games. Timely hitting has been very helpful don’t you think? There are games when teams have 11 hits and only 1 run. I know, that’s avg. with RISP, but that’s what I’m talking about. God, they have so many stats these days, and I think its because of all these fantasy players around now. For me, I used to just look at box scores, and now they have a stat about how many times a player drills his wife during the week, they call it WPT. And that doesn’t stand for World Poker Tournament, It stands for Wife’s Pickle Tickle. Kevin Millwood’s WPT this week is 1.07, which is probably why he is pitching so well…
So
I’m not sure what an FIP is, but it’s an example of a useless stat.
How can you make a judgment on a metric if you admit up front that you don’t know what that metric measures?
Defending Big D | TheStarsFans | But a Hawks fan since 1989
Has anyone been listening to the radio broadcasts?
This sounds like the opinion that Dave Barnett has voiced during the past 2 games . . . he disdainfully referred to sabermetricians as people who “don’t do anything but study statistics.” Though I respect Dave Barnett’s opinion more than this fine gentleman, I still have to disagree.
I imagine that the truth is somewhere in the middleground . . . the defense is obviously improved, but perhaps the pitching is slightly better as well.
The Rangers are 20-14 . . . is this real life? Is this going to be forever?
I disdainfully refer to Dave Barnett
as “that guy who should never ever call a baseball game”.
"I'd praised catcher Max Ramirez two weeks ago, but after his continued struggles I'm increasingly convinced he's not going to pan out." - crops.mlblogs.com
I've lost count of the number of times Nadel's corrected Barnett on air this season.
(Always gently, of course; Nadel’s a mensch.)
Barnett just doesn’t seem to know the game.
Its just a shame
they haven’t been able to find a quality partner for Nadel since Holtz. However, Barnett is easily the worst partner they have had yet.
"I'd praised catcher Max Ramirez two weeks ago, but after his continued struggles I'm increasingly convinced he's not going to pan out." - crops.mlblogs.com
What was wrong with Rojas?
I thought he and Nadel were good together. Although his “Big fly!” call always bugged the shit out of me.
Never was a fan.
Especially when he talked about his daddy, the major leaguer.
My ranking of Nadel’s partners is this
1. Holtz
Big Drop Down
2. Cotroneo
3. Rojas
4. Brad Sham
5. Dave Barnett
"I'd praised catcher Max Ramirez two weeks ago, but after his continued struggles I'm increasingly convinced he's not going to pan out." - crops.mlblogs.com
Probably should have added
a Big Drop Down after Sham.
"I'd praised catcher Max Ramirez two weeks ago, but after his continued struggles I'm increasingly convinced he's not going to pan out." - crops.mlblogs.com
Shamm
was much better at football. But I suppose he wasn’t a terrible baseball guy either.
If after reading LSB, BBTiA, Newberg, Inside Corner, etc you STILL want to read more about the Rangers, check out "Hello Win Column": http://texasrangerbaseball.blogspot.com
You know that...
…you really don’t like Rojas because he bitched at you over here when you called him out for talking about his dad.
by Adam J. Morris on May 18, 2009 4:24 PM CDT up reply actions
I think I made him
sob into his pillow at night.
I understand it was Nadel and Jon Miller at one point? Anyone remember how that was?
"I'd praised catcher Max Ramirez two weeks ago, but after his continued struggles I'm increasingly convinced he's not going to pan out." - crops.mlblogs.com
Thought Controneo was pretty good, actually.
by Black Francis on May 18, 2009 5:36 PM CDT up reply actions
i thought he was to much yankee bull shit for me
mormons stole me and held me against my will with Oklahoma beer and 12+ hour work days.
I did, too
and I especially miss him now that Barnett is here.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
+1
"Hi, I’m a fucking horsefaced moron." - John Lackey to Ian Kinsler, 5/16/09
"That start was like somebody on a deathbed suddenly jumping up and doing the Lindy Hop, then speeding away on a pogo stick while playing the fiddle." - Telegraph
You know who wouldn't be bad?
Steve Busby. I’ve loved the days that he’s subbed in for Nadel’s partner (whoever it was at the time), and his stint during Spring Training was a nice treat. Great radio voice too.
The way FSN uses him doesn’t really give him a chance to shine, though, placing him next to Dana Larsen, John Rhadigan, or (sigh) Ric Renner. But everytime he’s teamed with Nadel, I’ve really enjoyed it.
If after reading LSB, BBTiA, Newberg, Inside Corner, etc you STILL want to read more about the Rangers, check out "Hello Win Column": http://texasrangerbaseball.blogspot.com
what would be awesome
is if they used him with Lewin if TAG ever needed a day off. The dorkiness factor could quite possibly kill us all..
That said, I like Buzz and have said since the first of the year he would be great in the booth with Nadel.
Grieve: The Yanks have struggled so far. - Lewin: Yeah, cry me a bag of money.
Dykstra has all the money!
ElectricOkra.com
Busby and Sundberg
I remember them being pretty good in the TV booth together. For two former players, anyway.
by Black Francis on May 18, 2009 5:37 PM CDT up reply actions
Yuck
You guys are crazy if you think that Busby would be better than Barnett. He seems like a really nice guy, but doing baseball games on the radio is even further from his skill set than it is Barnett’s. And Sundberg is an awesome guy and an awesome Ranger, but those two were not good as a broadcast team.
by Brett Perryman on May 18, 2009 5:50 PM CDT up reply actions
But then you can’t tell the difference between Scott Garner and an Astros stroke victim/announcer. :)
by Brett Perryman on May 18, 2009 6:20 PM CDT up reply actions
I said for two former players they were good
Didn’t say I wanted them back or anything.
I haven’t listened to a whole lot of radio this year, but Barnett is the most boring announcer I’ve ever heard in my life. I’d rather listen to a mute broadcast the game and that’s the honest to God truth. Busby would be an enormous improvement over that guy.
In terms of Buzz and Sonny, maybe I just have fond memories of the first time I was ever really a fan of Rangers baseball. I was like 15 or 16 the first I’d heard them. Don’t recall anything too objectionable.
by Black Francis on May 18, 2009 6:28 PM CDT up reply actions
Buzz can get on my nerves sometimes too
I swear, I think “fisted” is his favorite word in the english language. But he’s a lot more fun than Barnett, if for no other reason than his cliches and annoying mannerisms can be amusing.
"Hi, I’m a fucking horsefaced moron." - John Lackey to Ian Kinsler, 5/16/09
"That start was like somebody on a deathbed suddenly jumping up and doing the Lindy Hop, then speeding away on a pogo stick while playing the fiddle." - Telegraph
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