Wednesday midday stuff
by Brett Perryman on May 20, 2009 1:08 PM CDT
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PrintThe Rangers are now averaging 2.3 runs in their last nine games in Detroit.
Richard Durrett asks if it's time for Derek Holland to replace Brandon McCarthy in the rotation. I'm sure that we were all considering this early in last night's game, but, just speaking for myself, I haven't gotten to that point yet. While you do want your five best starters in the rotation, one of the primary goals entering this season was to evaluate McCarthy so that you know what you've got moving forward. And I don't really think that evaulation is complete.
Scott McNeish talks about Matt Harrison and his matchup against Justin Verlander tonight.
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Let's wait!
Because it’s too early in the season for Holland to complete the year. If we do make the playoffs somehow, I don’t think we want Holland even close to the 200 inning zone.
Plus, McCarthy is due for an injury soon anyway. Let’s just wait!
Seriously
if not BMac, someone else will get injured. I’ve just come to regard Ranger starter trips to the DL as inevitable. No sense making a move before the All Star game.
"I'd praised catcher Max Ramirez two weeks ago, but after his continued struggles I'm increasingly convinced he's not going to pan out." - crops.mlblogs.com
I think you stick w/ BMac
he certainly has areas to improve on, but he’s shown progress. He’s pitching deeper into games and keeping the team in it. Not to beat a dead horse, but the guy is only 25, has changed his mechanics again , has changed pitching coaches again, and is coming off of a lost season. I’m starting to think he’s going to be one of these guys where it all finally clicks at the magical combo of age 27/3rd full starting year in the bigs.
I've been an outspoken critic of McCarthy
I still think he needs to be in the rotation.
"He's old school in that he give up his groin like that. It hurt me when he do that" -- Worsh on Chris Davis' stretch at first base to end the game vs. the Angels on 5/16
Me too
I don’t know what the org thinks, but if I were a “decider” this would be a make or break year for him in the rotation. I’d give him some leash, but not a lot. Doesn’t seem to me he’s pitched that poorly.
The more I think about it, the more I hesitate to kick him out. There’s going to be a vet leaving after this year probably and he can fit in at the back of the rotation if he can stay healthy. Holland will get his spot. In the meantime it sucks sending Holland out there for two innings at a time. Would rather not have him settle into that.
by Black Francis on May 20, 2009 5:22 PM CDT up reply actions
If this season was a wash before we started...
…and some of the major purposes were to evaluate what pitching they’ve got, I don’t think you boot McCarthy at this point. There will be an injury or something at some point, I promise.
McCarthy is fine as a 5th starter
and probably better than most. I have no hopes for McCarthy improving (or getting worse) and as long as the team plays this well and doesn’t start leaking oil, I can see doing this until the AS Break.
What if Holland continues to shine? We’re not desperate now but It’s worth at least exploring to see if the team can become even better with him taking the ball every 5th day by mid-July.
I was a strong, strong advocate of utilizing Holland this way before the season and think it’s a wonderful way to develop young pitchers but I’m just not sure how long the apprenticeship needs to last.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
I said this about Harrison and Feldman before...
so I’ll say it with McCarthy: why can’t he improve? Why don’t you have hope for that? He’s gone 7 innings in back to back starts before never doing it as a Ranger, and once upon a time before his mechanics were messed with and he started getting hurt, he seemed like a very good # 3 and possible # 2…
so it’s time to throw those hopes out the window?
"Hang-Dai, Wu...Hang-Fu$&ing-Dai"
by Walter Sobchak on May 20, 2009 1:39 PM CDT up reply actions
Danks was traded for him.
In some minds, that means he will never be good. If he is, then the criticism of that trade becomes petty and homeristic (if it isn’t already). So a lot of folks almost seem to root against BMac.
and I can understand the frustration...
I mean I was pretty upset, but it’s been time to move on for 2 years now.
If this were 2008, and the pitchers were all pitching like they did through the first 2 months of 2008, we would be praising McCarthy for his health and “success”…
"Hang-Dai, Wu...Hang-Fu$&ing-Dai"
by Walter Sobchak on May 20, 2009 1:44 PM CDT up reply actions
Walter
It’s his 5th year in the bigs.
The young pitchers I’m patient with are Harrison, Holland and even CJ. The thing with CJ is that he went from 7th inning pitcher, to 8th inning bridge, got roughed up as a closer and now is trying to back up on his feet again. You see struggles and progress with CJ plus he’s a lefty that can bring it 92-95 mph. Pitchers like that are talented.
McCarthy is just there.
He doesn’t have the big fastball, he doesn’t go deep into games and he doesn’t seem mentally tough enough to pitch well on the road either. Cliche alert – He is what he is and he’s not a horrific option to have as your 5th pitcher but that’s all he is going to be.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
McCarthy is 25 and coming off two injury riddled seasons...
Why shouldn’t we be as patient with him as we are with Matt Harrison? Because John Danks was traded for him?
Because he's a convenient club
to beat Jon Daniels with, nothing more.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
Matt Harrison has been in The Show
for less than a full year.
He’s also demonstrated a few outings of greatness (with 4 or 5 Game Scores of 70+), that he can pitch both at home and on the road and also deep into games….all in his first 25 starts in the majors.
Harrison has somethng. I’m not absolutely sure what it is just yet but I’ve seen enough glimpses from him to keep giving more rope.
McCarthy? This is what he was in Chicago and what he was two years ago in Texas. It’s his 5th different season in The Show and I don’t see him getting any better.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
So you're telling us now that Harrison has something and you know McCarthy is nothing more than a number 5
[Harrison] has a chance to be a decent # 3 pitcher on this team
Forgive me if I don’t take your opinion (and that’s all it is) as gospel.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
GDawg, aren't you the dumbass
that said Matt Harrison is a "great" pitcher?
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008
Now I'm apparently the guy
that has to get the “F” out of the way so I can let Josey Wales drive the Harrison bandwagon. So I’m a dumbass that just got carjacked. FML
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
Wagonjacked?
Heh!
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008
This is essentially McCarthy's second full season on a MLB Roster as a starting pitcher...
The fact that he spent his first full season in the Bigs coming out of the bullpen, and his next two seasons riddled with injuries should be thrown out the window?
BMac spent
his second year in the White Sox bullpen. In his first year 10 of his 12 appearences were as a SP. He didn’t start having injury problems until the middle of his 3rd season. His first year with Texas.
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
But he didn't get promoted until late in 2005...
His first full season in the big leagues, 2006, he spent coming out of the bullpen… That’s my point…
He’s only been a starting pitcher in the bigs from Opening Day for basically 2 years… One of which was his first season here when he had injury problems, the second being this season… He has essentially lost two years as a starting pitcher. One because of injury in Texas, the other because of circumstance in Chicago…
McCarthy
He came up as a 21 year old and did pretty damn good for a team that ultimately went on to win the World Series that year. Then he got banished to the bullpen because the White Sox had 5 veterans in front of him and there was also some tension between he and the GM apparently.
Then he comes to Texas and is injured for most of his first two years here. When he was healthy he was pretty good if you are capable of looking past a horrid 3 start stretch in April of 2007.
Hes come out this year and aside from his start against Oakland has looked better seemingly every time out pushing himself to the 7th inning the last couple starts. That is progress to me and if he continues he will be a solid starter for a long time for us.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
That makes no sense
CJ has been in the Majors for 5 seasons just like McCarthy. Both have struggled with injuries over their careers and especially in recent years. So why does CJ get the benefit of the doubt while McCarthy doesn’t?
He can’t go deep into games? In what looks like his first healthy season as a Ranger, he has made his second straight start of going 7 innings and has a couple of 6 inning outings this season too. To me, that looks like..dare I say…Improvement.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
I would like to see more of blackgloverighty
and less of blueglovelefty.
by Anonymous New Guy on May 20, 2009 3:06 PM CDT up reply actions
Pinkbackpacklefty?
¡Prefiero morir de pie que vivir siempre arrodillado!
I came here to split hairs. And you?
by inactive lsb user on May 21, 2009 10:34 AM CDT up reply actions
Holland needs to learn how to pitch to ML batters first
I don’t know the percentages but i would guestimate that he has probably thrown 90% fastballs in his appearances. He needs to work on his secondary stuff before we think about throwing him into the rotation because as the Angels showed us in his last outting ML hitters can hit a 97 MPH fastball if thats what they are looking for and you throw it anyway.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
You're essentially correct
According to Fangraphs, Holland has thrown the Fastball 79.2% of the time, the slider 13.0% of the time, and the changeup 7.9% of the time.
I’d feel better if he were starting to mix in the peripheral pitches more.
If he keeps on with essentially only the fastball, the major league hitters will be able to figure him out.
I wonder if there’s ever been a pitcher who’s succeeded by only throwing one pitch more than 2/3 of his pitches…..
R
Hmmmm
I was gonna say that’s can’t be right about Mariano since I always remembered him as great cutter AND great fastball, but recently (at least according to fangraphs), he’s been relying on his cutter almost exclusively.
Though, I’m not sure how accurate that is.
Hoffman, however, has NEVER been about just one pitch. He has a fantastic change-up to go with his very slow fastball.
Anyways, the point was more about starters, but it does seem that Rivera would be an example of someone who has succeeded with essentially one pitch at least recently.
R
And he's essentially
been around that for most of his career anyways.
Good point.
I guess I’m just nervous about mainly 1 pitch pitchers, but if you do have an exceptional fastball/cutter, which Holland DOES have, it looks like it is possible to have great success in the major league.
R
A while back I was looking at pitch frequencies for several elite SP
And I was struck by how many of them are reliant on basically two pitches. Not the majority, but there are more than what I expected.
Ben Sheets is almost exclusively FB (64%), CB (31%)
Aaron Harang mostly goes with FB (72%), SL (23%)
Josh Beckett goes FB (67%), CB (24%)
AJ Burnett is FB (65%), CB (30%)
Jair Jurrjens goes with FB (62%), CU (30%)
Greg Maddux in his late career relied mostly on FB (69%), CU (22%)
"He's old school in that he give up his groin like that. It hurt me when he do that" -- Worsh on Chris Davis' stretch at first base to end the game vs. the Angels on 5/16
Yeah
I’m just worried about when Holland develops his second pitch.
But it looks like maybe the cutoff is higher, so maybe instead of looking at 2/3, but around 3/4 of pitches.
It’s an interesting question, though. Do you really need 3 pitches to be a successful starting pitcher in the majors? And how much can you get away with throwing 1 pitch nearly exclusively? (3/4 of the time, 80%, 90%?)
R
Whether true or not
Mariano Rivera has a reputation for only throwing a cutter. It seems to me he can change speeds some, and maybe also had a slider nearly indistinguishable from the cutter in terms of delivery. And he didn’t go through a lineup three or four times.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912) also -
"Telephone, n. An invention of the devil which abrogates some of the advantages of making a disagreeable person keep his distance."
~Ambrose Bierce
by Ed Coffin on May 20, 2009 4:40 PM CDT up reply actions
Brandon Webb
He became an ace by throwing a high 80’s FB 70-75% of the time.
"He's old school in that he give up his groin like that. It hurt me when he do that" -- Worsh on Chris Davis' stretch at first base to end the game vs. the Angels on 5/16
Nice example
It’s an incredible sinker with great movement, but that’s still a solid example.
Does anyone know if he has different movements on it or is it just nearly unhittable all the time?
R
Hmmmm
Just took a closer look at the data, and using fangraph pitch data vs. fangraph pitchfx data yields vastly different results:
2007:
73.5% FB, 15.8% CB, 10.7% CH – pitch
64.3% FB, 15.5% CB, 9.6% CH, 7.6% 2S, 2.6% SL – pitchFX
2008:
71.0% FB, 11.8% CB, 16.5% CH – pitch
58.4% FB, 18.4% CB, 12.2% CH, 8.0% 2S – pitchFX
2009:
73.3% FB, 20.0% CB, 6.7% CH – pitch
49.4% FB, 20.8% CB, 29.9% CH – pitchFX
I wonder if other pitcher data is as off…..
R
hmm
Weird that in 2009 the discrepancy seems to be that the two systems are identifying fastballs as changeups or vice versa. Those 2 pitches should be the easiest to differentiate. Of course Webb was injured and hasn’t pitched many innings this year, so that may explain some of it.
"He's old school in that he give up his groin like that. It hurt me when he do that" -- Worsh on Chris Davis' stretch at first base to end the game vs. the Angels on 5/16
links
Slusarski out as Frisco’s pitching coach
Kirkman and Nevarez gets Evan Grant’s (or is it MJH?) attention over at Inside Corner
BBTiA has some Will Carroll comments about FX2 and comments from Joe Sheehan on the Ranger offense. Matchup Sheehan’s comment with what Ian is saying below.
Ian Kinsler said the offense’s performance was completely unacceptable, whether it was Willis or Sandy Koufax pitching. Kinsler has consistently said the offense needs to be better. His suggestion Tuesday was for the Rangers to take more pitches. Hitters are getting themselves out, in some cases. Kinsler can help set the tone as the leadoff man by making pitchers work from the very first at-bat.
Ian, talk is cheap. Lets see you and your teammates translate what you are saying into results.
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
well talk may be cheap
but I don’t blame Kinsler’s approach to the game yesterday. The three at bats I witnessed looked like each one could’ve been a hit…very hard hit balls, just happened to be right at defenders. But if he has to set a tone by driving counts to 3-2 or walking, and the opportunity presents itself, fine…
"Hang-Dai, Wu...Hang-Fu$&ing-Dai"
by Walter Sobchak on May 20, 2009 1:41 PM CDT up reply actions
AA pitching coach fired midseason
I guess that is pretty big news.
"He's old school in that he give up his groin like that. It hurt me when he do that" -- Worsh on Chris Davis' stretch at first base to end the game vs. the Angels on 5/16
They didn't seem to like him much.
This was his first year with the Rangers, right?
"I'd praised catcher Max Ramirez two weeks ago, but after his continued struggles I'm increasingly convinced he's not going to pan out." - crops.mlblogs.com
Kinsler is right
the offense has been pretty poor. Even though the team’s totals are pretty impressive, relative to the rest of the league, I think a lot of those numbers are somewhat skewed by the several really big games the team has had. A team with this lineup should be consistently putting up 3 runs a game at minimum, and then add on top of that. There have been far too many games like yesterday’s where none of the bats showed up. It’s amazing the team is where it is with that amount of offensive inconsistency.
PhD
kind of like...
…one of the primary goals entering this season was to evaluate McCarthy so that you know what you’ve got moving forward.
like staring into the bowl of the toilet after you took a dump and thinking the turd is going to become a dore bar
forgot the audience...
a dore bar is a gold bar.
turning dumps into dove bars would be nice, too.
by sam in so cal on May 20, 2009 3:58 PM CDT up reply actions
You are quite odd.
¡Prefiero morir de pie que vivir siempre arrodillado!
I came here to split hairs. And you?
by inactive lsb user on May 21, 2009 10:39 AM CDT up reply actions
Dove Bar?
gross. I’ve NEVER thought that about my turds. Stay in So Cal, please
"Hang-Dai, Wu...Hang-Fu$&ing-Dai"
by Walter Sobchak on May 20, 2009 1:42 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm usually thinking
“When did I eat corn?”
Godwin's Law Version 2.0 (Rangers Edition)
"As a Ranger discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Danks, Volquez, or Young approaches one."
by LBBRangerFan on May 20, 2009 1:58 PM CDT up reply actions
Tub Girl fetish?
Ewwwww – never mind
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912) also -
"Telephone, n. An invention of the devil which abrogates some of the advantages of making a disagreeable person keep his distance."
~Ambrose Bierce
by Ed Coffin on May 20, 2009 2:14 PM CDT up reply actions
Ed, I've never seen you work blue....
The Texas Rangers have been synonymous with explosive firepower ever since they emptied 130 rounds into Bonnie Parker and Clyde Barrow in 1934. - Alyssa Milano
Generally not
Doesn’t mean “what has been seen can be unseen” as the black cat gif so well points out.
"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912) also -
"Telephone, n. An invention of the devil which abrogates some of the advantages of making a disagreeable person keep his distance."
~Ambrose Bierce
by Ed Coffin on May 20, 2009 2:59 PM CDT up reply actions
You gotta leave him until he just falls apart...
Or Holland pitches so well you simply can’t delay the move any longer…
Is 7 innings of 4 run ball that bad? Granted, he’s allowing too many base runners and was probably lucky to only give up 4 runs yesterday, but he hasn’t been awful to the point it’s already time to give up on him…
I mean, haven’t we learned to have some patience with young pitchers after what we’ve seen the last month or so with Matt Harrison?
that's stupid
"if my kid said 'uhh' that much, i would say, Hey! ... stop saying 'uhh' that much..." - dennis miller
Upsetting...
Remove the 4 games we’ve played Detroit, and we’re 23-11. Remove their wins, and they are 17-16.
It’s about time to buck this trend…sadly, it has to be Verlander we’re hoping to do this against
"Hang-Dai, Wu...Hang-Fu$&ing-Dai"
I think you could play that game all day.
And not really get anywhere. Almost every team has a team they don’t play well against, or a park they don’t play well at.
I now hate you,
just for pointing out that stat…
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008
Harrison bandwagon leaving the station.
Alright – if you’ve been wavering about getting on the bandwagon, today is your last chance. He was hit fairly hard in Detroit in his first start there, long before it “clicked” with him. We all know what he’s done his last few times out.
I think Harrison is going to go out there today and give the Rangers a chance to win. He’s young, and he still has some off days in him. But I have a feeling he’s going to step up today, go into the place where he was beat up before and put an end to both his and the team’s Detroit misery. It’s going to be a tough game – Verlander simply overpowered the Rangers last time out. But it’s time for a statement.
PhD
I ripped Harrison's ass as hard as anybody around here before the season (thank you Baseball Prospectus)
but throw me the keys and get the F out of the way because I’m driving this bad boy now…just make sure Taylor Teagarden is behind the dish.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
I'm staying off this bandwagon
Last time I jumped on a bandwagon (the Rangers Bandwagon after the LAAA sweep) it hit a bump and I got a sore ass. This time, I’ll just jog along next to the bandwagon for a little while longer.
by NorCalRangersFan on May 20, 2009 3:43 PM CDT up reply actions
Just a little one
I didn’t get thrown off. I just don’t want to jinx the Harrison bandwagon by hopping on too soon.
I’ve always found its best to be a pessimist when it comes to the Rangers. As soon as I get my hopes up, I get beaten back down. I am the mole in whack-a-mole. And the Rangers are the mallet.
by NorCalRangersFan on May 20, 2009 5:42 PM CDT up reply actions
BMac
Considering he pretty much is our 5th starter if you go by stats….he is the best 5th starter the Rangers have had in years. People love to compare him to Danks but thats not fair to the guy. While I’m not happy with his inconsistencies, he has shown improvements the past few starts. Give the dude some more time before were asking him to be replaced. I’m all for Holland starting in July but that all depends on how the team is doing and he might be most valuable out of the pen
Offense averaging 2.3 runs in Detroit
If anything is overdue, that figure is, and at some point in time it will catch up with Detroit, hopefully tonight and tomorrow
Anyone know
where you can find how hitter’s have done against a pitch type?
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
So if McCarthy is eventually bumped from the rotation...
is he going to be put in the bullpen, and that’s it? Do we deal him?
can we deal him to the White Sox for...
never mind
"Hang-Dai, Wu...Hang-Fu$&ing-Dai"
by Walter Sobchak on May 20, 2009 3:57 PM CDT up reply actions
Again...
Do we ever not face a teams ace?
Det-Verlander
Ana-Saunders/Lackey
Sea-King Felix
Sox-Danks?
by death of the cool on May 20, 2009 3:24 PM CDT reply actions
MLB Scheduling
i noticed in the scheduling there were/are two home series against the Rangers in Detroit, 3 games each, and one 3 game set in Arlington? Doesn’t this seem pretty screwed up? Why not divide it up 4 each, and drop the last one or make one of them a 5 game set with a doubleheader? They sure waste resources going back and forth, they could eliminate some of that. Also, I see no purpose in 2 game sets at all. MLB scheduling seems really fouled up to me.
It's the way it is.
Most out-of-division matchups are unbalanced. Sometimes there are 6 games between teams, but often 9, and it’s almost always three three-game series, meaning one team has 6 home games.
3 game series are just traditional in baseball, and I don’t think that’s going to change any time soon. Also, doubleheaders generally draw smaller crowds and cause a loss of revenue for the teams.
I don’t really like two-game series, but it seems necessary with the complicated scheduling and staggered off-days.
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