A.L. West Standings
by Adam J. Morris on May 26, 2009 11:00 AM CDT
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It still looks pretty.
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After Memorial Day
on a 95.5 win pace, did not think that would happen this year.
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74.5 O/U
When in Vegas this spring I took the over on the 74.5 O/U line. At the time the math guys were projecting roughly 72 wins, I went with my heart not head. The Rangers need to play at least as a 67-win team for me to win my bet. My under on the NYY 95.5 isn’t looking as good. They need to play like a 96 win team for me to tie, which is what they’ve been.
Our Pythag record shows us at a 54.5% (88 wins), projecting that out from our current record we’re looking at 90 wins.
Because of our strength of schedule I don’t think we’re quite as good as 90 wins. Still, though, looking very nice. Should be a fun season.
I think youre solid on both bets
I will be shocked if we dont do better than that, we really dont even have to do that well to surpass that mark
as for NYY, theyre great now but rest assured that they will falter soon…more importantly when they start playing the AL East it will be a dogfight and i dont see them kicking everyones ass and and getting to 96 wins…Also, i still think Boston is the best team in that division anyways
haha...
the Yankees, the
Rivalries aside, RIP Nick Adenhart 04/09/2009.
"if daniels was fired today, he would almost be sure to get another shot somewhere else as a GM
i dont know if you can say the same thing abotu RW" - knockoutking
May I be the first to say...
First Place Mutha Effin Texas Rangers?!
Seriously. First place after Memorial Day. Holding first place for some time now. So far, the view looks nice.
She say she are the manager.
by rockin_rangers on May 26, 2009 11:55 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Yeah... this isn't how I thought the season would unfold
Shows what I know. I’m glad my career isn’t based on prognosticating baseball.
But I take solace in the fact that no one else knew that this would happen either. While my personal prediction system isn’t that great, I still argue that it isn’t fundamentally any worse than any of the other prediction systems that basically just extrapolate a couple of past seasons and regress numbers to a league mean.
Oakland A’s in first place…. yeah….
PhD
Yeah, I'd say my pre-season prediction of 73-89
looks to be very failed…and I’m ecstatic.
This team is different than the fraudulent garbage we watched last year.
This team is legit.
How well are they going to finish? Tough question at this point. Nobody likes to admit or acknowledge it but we’re still trying to overcome our manager.
We also need our GM to make a couple of more deals (a starter and reliever) that help the big club which has not been his strength in the past and it’s also going to require that he break up some of the positional logjams we’re now seeing. Those logjams help the team’s standing with Baseball America but it can also stunt development at the big league level.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
by Josey Wales on May 26, 2009 12:38 PM CDT up reply actions
I don't see that we need another starter
Not unless we are talking about a Roy Halladay/Jake Peavy type.
by Adam J. Morris on May 26, 2009 12:53 PM CDT up reply actions
and if you're talking about that type
I’d hesitate to pay the price.
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AJM
We need another starter.
Padilla & Millwood have been up and down with injuries since they’ve been here plus we also have this glass fixture in the house named McCarthy. Factor also that nobody really knows what we have in Matt Harrison either.
Yeah, the Halladay/Peavy type is who we need which means JD needs to hit on it big-time because this pitcher that we need is going to cost plenty of prospects (that we have as trade chips).
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
the next two months
will tell if the Rangers need a SP. Not Josey Wales.
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
The Rangers are going to not only need a SP
but they also need another hammer in the bully unless you think Kris Benson is some kind of an answer.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
Feliz will be that RP
"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan
by Dirk Diggler on May 26, 2009 1:11 PM CDT up reply actions
I think it is more likely
that JD trades for a RP and not a SP.
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
Much more likely
although with the bullpen they have Holland, Feliz, and several other in-house options.
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A Halladay/Peavy
is always welcome, provided the cost isn’t system-killing.
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Given how much jersey popping JD has been doing about this
system and his ability to replenish it, I’m not worried about it killing the “system.”
I don’t give up Holland or Harrison and I’d have to think long and hard about Feliz (doesn’t throw enough strikes) but everybody else (including Smoak) is available.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
Harrison is untouchable to me
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
Feliz/Smoak
There’s a lot of people that think those two will be top five prospects in all of baseball next year- and Feliz is already in the top 10.
I think I’d move Harrison before either of those two. As much as I like Harrison, I don’t think he has near the ceiling of Feliz or Smoak.
"I dont care to debate with a troll." - Sharky
What exactly are you going to get for Harrison?
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
If I have to make room in my rotation
I’m far more inclined to ship McCarthy out here before Harrison.
Harrison is the mystery guest and nobody really knows what he is but has been special 5-10 times in his first 25 starts.
McCarthy is what he is not to mention an injury waiting to happen.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
Harrison
Well, apparently, you value Harrison as untouchable, which says to me that you think he has quite a bit of value.
Not that I’d move him either, but then again, I wouldn’t deal Feliz or Smoak except as the centerpiece of a package for a legitmate, established, #1 starter like Halladay or Peavy. And since I don’t see either of them being available to the Rangers this year, I hold my big trade chips, and see if I can move some of the B/C level prospects for the bullpen help we need.
"I dont care to debate with a troll." - Sharky
5 starts with a GS of 50 or above
Which includes his last start where he had a GS of 74. Bill James has said that when a pitcher has a game score of 50 or above, the team will usually win that game. He also posted a GS of 48 and 46 in two of his other starts meaning that while he didn’t pitch well enough to nearly guarantee a win, he still pitched a game that gave the Rangers a chance at winning. If you disagree, take it up with Mr. James.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
So would you say Harrison is a great pitcher?
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
Nope
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
Being great isn't the only reason to be untouchable
If you think a player has a strong potential for increasing their ‘value’ considerably in the next year or two, but right now they only have limited value, then I can understand calling them ‘untouchable’. Yeah, strictly speaking he’s not untouchable if someone offered something ridiculous, but heck – Feliz and Holland aren’t untouchable by that definition either.
I agree with Josey’s contention that whatever you could get for Harrison right now is not nearly enough to justify giving up on him. I think Harrison’s flashes of brilliance have the potential to become the rule rather than the exception. I wouldn’t trade him right now, simply because no one would give anything nearly worth his potential long-term value.
PhD
If you want to call every decent player untouchable
You’ve just become the Red Sox or the Yankees.
If you believe that their value will rise considerably in the next year or two, then they aren’t untouchable either. You just have set a higher price if some other team wants them. Feliz and Holland are in a whole other tier of value. You aren’t getting them in anything less than a huge blockbuster deal.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
Well, we're just arguing about semantics here
I agree that the word untouchable shouldn’t really be used in sports, unless the player in question is Albert Pujols.
PhD
There's a time when you can use the word
No one thinks it means that there is no offer good enough to get the player. People understand that calling a player untouchable means you think that the player is that good where there is little a team would seriously offer to get that player. When you use the phrase to describe someone you don’t think is great, you are doing what the Red Sox and Yanks do when they declare every halfway decent prospect untouchable.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
I'd like to see us pry Heath Bell somehow.
Less cost financially and prospecty than Peavy.
"I saw your act, just didn't make it for me. Just a lot of fluff."
Bell is 13-for-13 in save chances and a big reason the Padres have a winning record now.
But Fx2 hasn’t given up an earned run all year.
Who would be the closer between those two?
I'd stick w/ Frankie
and let Bell be an 8th inning beast.
"I saw your act, just didn't make it for me. Just a lot of fluff."
Bell wouldn't be that cheap
financially or prospect wise. He has 2 arb years left and is putting up outstading #s so far this year. I am terrible at trade projections but I am sure the Padres would want someone near ML ready with high upside. I am not sure the Rangers match up very well with them.
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
The rotation already needs an extra spot for Holland
Who is likely to be pushed back to strengthen the bullpen. Feliz also is likely to come up not too long from now to help out the bullpen even more.
I honestly can’t think of a deal out there that makes that much sense for the Rangers. If they can add a reliever for cheap or maybe make a trade for Peavy (who’s trade value seems to be much less than originally thought), I’d like to see that. The thing this team needs right now is some patience on offense, but not sure if you can make a good trade for that to solve all of the team’s problems.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
Okay
Who, realistically, do you think is the type of top-of-the-rotation starter who would be available come July who the Rangers should target?
by Adam J. Morris on May 26, 2009 2:45 PM CDT up reply actions
Top of the rotation I'm not so sure about
but I wonder if …. Ted Lilly would be made available if the Cubs keep staggering around?
He’s getting paid $ 10 million per and could easily slide into VP’s slot next year.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
What makes him that much better than the guys currently in the rotation?
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
Off the top of my head
I wanna say that Lilly put up 22 Game Scores of 50+ in each of the last two years.
When is the last time Millwood, Padilla, Harrison, Feldman or McCarthy did that?
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
Also
He’s been posting FIPs in the mid-4s in the N.L.
Put him in TBIA and make him face the A.L., and he’s going to be sitting around a 5.00 or so.
by Adam J. Morris on May 26, 2009 2:55 PM CDT up reply actions
Went and looked it up.
Lilly had 24 Game Scores of 50+ in 2008 in 34 starts.
In 2007, he had 23 Game Scores of 50+ in 34 starts.
This year he has 6 Game Scores of 50+ in 9 starts.
That’s 53 Game Scores of 50+ in 77 starts.
Neither Millwood nor Padilla can carry Lilly’s jock as a pitcher and to say he’s the same pitcher is completely inaccurate.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
How about before 2007?
You know, when he was pitching in the AL.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
That was in the NL
and he wasn’t pitching in front of the bad defenses the Rangers had in those years, and he wasn’t injured like they were last year. You’re awesome at making snap judgments with incomplete information.
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If we're trading prospects,
I want someone young- Cain or Duke.
"I saw your act, just didn't make it for me. Just a lot of fluff."
lol
okay, so who do you want out of the rotation right now for Lilly. Harrison is untouchable, I think we both like Feldman a lot and obviously don’t want him out of the rotation. I assume your hatred of McCarthy and belief that his body rejects the notion of pitching in the Show means he is the odd man out, right? Then what do we do with Holland?
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
Lilly is ok, but
not enough of an upgrade to trade away prospects for. Anyway, I doubt the Cubs will be that far out of it in July, they’ll be standing pat or adding more than selling I think.
I’d rather pay a higher price and get a #1 pitcher than add someone like Lilly.
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Ted Lilly?
Really?
Bleah.
He’s no better than Padilla or Millwood.
by Adam J. Morris on May 26, 2009 2:54 PM CDT up reply actions
"He's no better than Padilla or Millwood"
Wrong.
Lilly was much better than both the last two years and Padilla isn’t going to be here next year (and Lilly is cheaper!!).
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
Why does it matter what they did last year
We’re talking about this year.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
If Lilly pitched
for the 2008 Rangers defense in Arlington he would not have looked so good. You’re overrating him. I like him just fine, but again, he is not really an upgrade.
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I don't want Lilly here next year
And what he’s done better than Millwood or Padilla the last two years is, in essence, be healthy.
I don’t see why it is worth giving up magic beans for another Millwood/Padilla type.
by Adam J. Morris on May 26, 2009 3:05 PM CDT up reply actions
Ted Lilly
has a 32-17 record and 3.90ish ERa the last two years.
This year he has a 5-4 record and Game Scores of 50+ in 6 of 9 starts.
He’s a better, cheaper and more reliable pitcher than either Millwood or Padilla.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
Lilly vs Millwood
Lilly’s career ERA+ is 104. Millwood’s is 108. This year, Millwood is ahead, 149 to 121.
Millwood has an ERA title to his credit. He’s also thrown a no-hitter. He also has five seasons of 200-plus innings, to Lilly’s two.
I’m playing devil’s advocate a bit here, but there’s plenty of evidence to argue that Millwood has just as much ability as Lilly.
"I dont care to debate with a troll." - Sharky
I don't give a crap about his record
I also don’t give a crap about his Game Scores.
He has a 4.53 FIP this year, and a 4.41 FIP last year, and he’s doing this in the weaker league that doesn’t have a DH.
He’s also a pretty extreme flyball pitcher.
He wasn’t good in the A.L. He’s gone to the N.L. and had some success, but he looks like someone who would be a bad risk coming back to the A.L., particularly to a park where the ball carries like at TBIA.
And he’s under contract for $12 million this year and next year — more than Padilla or Millwood will make this year, and as much as Millwood will make next year (if his option vests, but ignoring the fact taht the deferred money makes Millwood next season cost a little under $11 million).
So you are wanting to pay a steep price in prospects to get a guy who is a bad fit for TBIA, who isn’t any better than Millwood and Padilla, and who is going to cost more than those guys.
All so you don’t have to have Brandon McCarthy or Scott Feldman in the rotation.
Good plan.
by Adam J. Morris on May 26, 2009 4:25 PM CDT up reply actions
Adam,
you don’t like Game Scores because that particular stat pisses all over everything you have to say about pitching.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
by Josey Wales on May 26, 2009 10:39 PM CDT up reply actions
ill say it again....
Read some fucking Emerson and/or Thoreau
my god ive never seen someones head up another mans ass as much as you put yours up Bill James’
Ted Fuckin Lilly, are you shittin me…
get the fuck out you dumbass
Amen
unless you can get an absolute stud Starter (which you probably can’t), you might as well go with what you have and save prospects.
"I'd praised catcher Max Ramirez two weeks ago, but after his continued struggles I'm increasingly convinced he's not going to pan out." - crops.mlblogs.com
And then we make a Atlanta type deal and everyone bitches
no thx…i have no interest in fucking up like atlanta did and mortgaging our future
our sp is fine
I will be euphoric
if the Rangers still have a 3 games lead on June 15.
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
Who would you say owns the majority of the leadership on this team?
"BIg whoop, wanna fight about it?"
The Face
is the unquestioned leader of this team.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
by Josey Wales on May 26, 2009 12:45 PM CDT up reply actions
It could be Millwood
He seems to be the guy for the pitchers while you also have Byrd and Kinsler (and maybe Hamilton) as being some of the leaders for the position players.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
It's after Memorial Day, so...
…I was thinking Sunday night (when we were 9 games over .500): if the Rangers simply played .500 ball for the rest of the season, that would end up with 90 wins. I think all of us can agree that 90 wins has more than a decent shot at winning the AL West.
So, I’m ready to start believing: they can win this, you guys.
I have been a believer for about a month now
2009 Texas Rangers: Why The Hell Not Us?--ghtd36 on May 13, 2009
x
if the Rangers simply played .500 ball for the rest of the season, that would end up with 90 wins.
Actually, that’s not true…if they played .500 ball the rest of the way now that they are 8 games over .500, they’d end up with 85 wins (85-77).
You can’t end up an odd number of games over .500 if you play 162 games.
by Adam J. Morris on May 26, 2009 12:31 PM CDT up reply actions
Leading on Memorial Day is not insignificant.
Good news – 9 of the last 12 AL teams to lead the division on Memorial Day went on to win the division.
Bad news – 2 of the 3 teams not to win the division after leading on Memorial Day were the Texas Rangers (2005 & 2006).
Side Note – Anybody realize the KC Royals were 12-37 on Memorial Day in 2006? Hillman may deserve some of the crap he gets but he has been a huge upgrade on what they had previously.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
Two problems with your Royals statement
1. they have a very different roster and the present and previous GM deserves some of that credit.
2. If you’re going to give Hillman credit for their present record over previous seasons, don’t you have to give Washington the same credit, especially since the Rangers record is 4 1/2 games better than the Royals right now?
Truthfully, neither manager deserves much credit. The front offices of both teams had more to do with it in both cases.
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Hillman is in his second year as the KC manager.
Washington is in his 3rd year, took over a team that had an 86-76 pythag and we’re still waiting for that first .500 season.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
Pythag record and real record are apples and oranges
I go by what they have done not what some equation tells me they should have done.
2009 Texas Rangers: Why The Hell Not Us?--ghtd36 on May 13, 2009
Nice try
your double standard is obvious. I don’t think much of either manager and it’s silly to pretend that Hillman is great but Washington sucks when both have done little to recommend. At least Washington has the players with him. That may be more important for a manager than in game strategy, though you’d like to have both. You could also make the argument that Washington had awful choices in his first two years when he went to the bullpen (too often early in the game.)
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OT Frankie Frank
Francisco #5 on CNNSI’s list of 10 most surprising starts in MLB this season (individual players).
If they are putting Mauer on that list
I think you have to put Greinke on there too. Who thought he would have an ERA+ of 553 over his first 9 starts of the season?
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
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