Hackers: Chris Davis

by SaltyDawg on May 27, 2009 2:36 PM CDT Comment 16 comments

Life without a computer is rougher than I thought. After a couple of months of saving following my latest computer crash, I finally spent some money and got a Mac with all kinds of goodies. I've pretty much been limited to keeping up with LSB via the Blackberry (speaking of that Adam, any idea if/when SBN will go mobile with commenting?) and it has sucked not being able to fully participate in all the chest bumping that the Rangers play has induced among the faithful.

All that said, the hacking is getting out of hand. I've read plenty here regarding the 1st pitch swings, the K's, and the lack of on base skills that the Rangers have demonstrated during this great start. So, for my first fanpost back from the world of the computerless, I thought I would try taking somewhat of an in-depth look at your 2009 Texas Rangers Hackers.

Chris Davis:

Davis has had a rough go when it comes to making contact and getting on base. As he has shown all season and last night, the power hasn't gone anywhere. And, in comparison to 2008, his overall strike zone judgment hasn't fallen off either.

Season	Team	O-Swing%	Z-Swing%	Swing%	O-Contact%	Z-Contact%	Contact%	Zone%	F-Strike%
Total *	- - -	36.6 %	73.5 %	53.9 %	49.0 %	73.6 %	64.7 %	46.8 %	62.5 %
2008	Rangers	37.3 %	72.5 %	54.3 %	48.3 %	79.1 %	68.1 %	48.2 %	64.0 %
2008	Average	25.4 %	65.4 %	45.9 %	61.7 %	87.8 %	80.8 %	51.1 %	58.6 %
2009	Rangers	35.4 %	75.5 %	53.1 %	50.4 %	62.0 %	57.7 %	44.1 %	59.6 %
2009	Average	24.4 %	65.7 %	44.6 %	62.5 %	87.6 %	80.6 %	48.9 %	57.8 %

As you can see, Davis is actually swinging at less pitches out of the zone than he did in 2008. Of course, he still swings at significantly more pitches than league average, but we knew that coming in. You can also see that Davis is making contact out of the zone a little more than in 2008. So where is the dropoff from 2008 to 2009? In 2008, Davis made contact with 79.1% of pitches in the stike zone that he swung at. While that was below league average, his numbers were still impressive because when he did make contact, it was often hard contact. In 2009, Davis is making contact with only 62% of the pitches in the strike zone that he swings at. That awful number has brought his overall contact rate down almost 11% to 57.7%...over 20 percentage points below the league average. He is also being hurt by the fact that his LD% has come down from25.5% to 17.4% and that difference has been made up entirely in FB% as his GB% has stayed the same.

Davis is definitely a hacker, and his career will probably fall in line with his first two years as it pertains to his swing percentage. His big problem this year has not been that he is up their flailing at everything and swinging at more balls than he did in 2008. These numbers point toward a mechanical/mental issue rather than an approach issue just as Rudy and Chris have stated. A look at a few more numbers for Chris may reveal something about his season:

1st 6 games: 1-for-22, 2 BB, 10 K, 0 HR

Next 11 games: 12-for-39, 1 BB, 20 K, 5 HR

Next 9 games: 5-for-30, 6 BB, 13 K, 1 HR

Next 8 games: 11-for-30, 0 BB, 10 K, 4 HR

Next 9 games: 1-for-29, 2 BB, 13 K, 0 HR

Last Night: 2-for-4, 0 BB, 2 K, 2 HR

Chris has had 3 really bad stretches and 2 (hopefully 3 starting with last night) pretty good stretches.

In 24 games this season (6,9,9 game stretches), Davis has this line:

7-for-81, 10 BB, 36 K, 1 HR

In his other 20 games this season (11,8 game stretches and last night), Davis has this line:

25-for-73, 1 BB, 32 K, 11 HR

There are a few encouraging numbers there, along with some obvious discouraging ones. One thing I hadn't noticed until looking at these numbers is that during Davis rough stretches, his K:BB rate has been much, much, much better than in his 2 hot streaks. This at least suggests that Davis has the ability to exercise some degree of patience. Another thing I hadn't really noticed is that after striking out 30 times in his first 61 ABs (49% K rate), Davis has struck out 38 times in his last 93 ABs (41% K rate). Obviously, a 41% K rate doesn't put a smile on your face, but it does show that there is some improvement being made. Lastly, there is no doubt the power is still there. Not that anyone thought it had gone anywhere to begin with.

There has been some discussion about whether Chris could use some time in AAA, and some asking when Smoak will be up to get Chris out of the lineup? After looking at some in-depth numbers, I have to side with the Rudy Jaramillo, JD, AJM camp.

While Chris clearly has some issues to work through, I don't see a guy who needs a massive overhaul. I see a guy who is going to hit a lot of home runs, strike out a lot, and play great defense. I see a guy who may be taking 2 steps forward and one step back as he climbs out of the hole he is in. He may not wake up one morning and all of the sudden snap out of it. But his K rate is coming down, even if it is still incredibly high. His defense has been superb and is still improving. And if he needs to work on the mechanics of his swing, isn't that Rudy's specialty?

Sending him to AAA seems like a lose/lose situation to me. He either gets hot while the Rangers deal with Blalock's equally annoying hacktasticness and much worse defense. Or, he continues to struggle and it becomes a big time mental issue for him. The Rangers are getting GG caliber defense from him and have him tucked away in the #7-8 spot every night. He is 23 years old and in his first full major league season. He is flat out too good to only connect on 62% of his swings at pitches in the strike zone. He may not be the .315/.380/.570 guy some may have thought he would be, but he is also not the .208/.265/.468 guy we have seen to this point in 2009.

I have in mind 3-4 other guys to take a similar look at as well. But, seeing as I'm rusty...this could very well suck in which case please do tell me and I will go sit in the corner and work on some photoshopping for GDTs to try and recover from this putrid fanpost.

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Comments

Good, in depth look

I think that Rudy has seen a few major league hitters in his years coaching, and if he says Davis won’t benefit from being sent down then you give him some more time. The difference in the “hot” and “cold” streaks is simply amazing. Hopefully, given his quotes about last night, he’s identified something that will keep him “hot” for longer time spans.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on May 27, 2009 2:51 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Nice post, SD,

and it does reinforce the idea that calmer heads should prevail.

"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008

by Rodney on May 27, 2009 3:24 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Great read. I see a guy who needs to level out his uppercut swing.

It’d be interesting to see a comparison of his swing from last season to this season. More uppercut approach = lower LD%, more misses, higher HR% (so it would seem.)

Last year I heard an interview with Chris Davis on one radio station, followed by chance almost immediately with an interview of Justin Smoak on another station. At the time, I was incredibly impressed with Davis’ professional approach to baseball. He is intelligent, prepared, analytical.

Smoak came across as Bubba Millwood, Jr. From his own statements, he knows he’s blessed with God-given talent, and he doesn’t want to think about why he hits so well for fear he might screw things up. He thinks about fishing and hunting instead.

Those two interviews side-by-side put me way into the Chris Davis camp at the time, but this year it appears Davis’ thinking approach is his greatest weakness – for now.

While I want to support the guy who wants to understand the “why,” what matters is who produces. I can’t wait to see if Smoak can not only succeed initially in the majors, but if he can make that second-time-through adjustment that Davis is struggling with right now.

by 3hacks on May 27, 2009 3:32 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Absolutely on CD's uppercut

The curve and change he hit out last night put the ball right on the same plane as his swing and he smoked the ball both times.

He seems to be taking curveball swings at every fastball he sees which is why he is underneath everything. Part of that is pitch recognition, and part of it is a mechanical issue

I used to shoot baskets

by SaltyDawg on May 27, 2009 4:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not sure what to make of his swing% out of the zone

that number just seems way too high but i guess his numbers last year were fairly good. I guess it might help to prioritize the issues. Fix the swing so he’s making more contact in the zone and then ask him to be a bit more discerning

"I just want to comment on how it’s become like a common thing in the [MLB] for guys to fall in love with [the Rangers’s] sloppy seconds." (thanks cstorm)

by ab03 on May 27, 2009 3:44 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

one thing

if he keeps up that awful swing% out of the strike zone, he’s just not going to see as many pitches in the zone. Look at his zone%. Last year it was a little below average and this year it is well below average.

"I just want to comment on how it’s become like a common thing in the [MLB] for guys to fall in love with [the Rangers’s] sloppy seconds." (thanks cstorm)

by ab03 on May 27, 2009 3:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's my thought on CD right now

Obviously I would love for walks to become part of his game, but he has to figure out how to hit pitches in the zone right now or no pitcher is going to walk him. Joba and Coke gifted a couple of HRs to him last night after how bad he looked against 3 straight fastballs in his first AB.

He can hit the fastball, and that has to be what he and Rudy are working on.

I used to shoot baskets

by SaltyDawg on May 27, 2009 4:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good stuff

I wonder how much truth there was to Rudy’s suggestion that it was a mental issue. His swings on balls that are WAY out of the zone look like he commits too early before he realizes that he recognizes pitches. It’s as if his arms commit to swing before his brain tells him not to, but with plenty of time had he just listened to himself. And his inability to catch up to fastballs is disturbing. No answers from me, just concerns.

Your uncle molests collies.

by 3k on May 27, 2009 5:29 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I think all of those things

….could be a result of thinking too much over time.

613photo

by Black Francis on May 27, 2009 7:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

He looks so lost

and it’s sad. We are just over a quarter of the way through the season. His struggles are starting to draw out too long for my liking, and it’s really screwing with my fantasy team.

If a woman has to choose between catching a fly ball and saving an infant's life, she will choose to save the infant's life without even considering if there are men on base. ~Dave Barry

by NothinG on May 28, 2009 2:49 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Rudy's endorsement?

that was then, this is now.

"I'd praised catcher Max Ramirez two weeks ago, but after his continued struggles I'm increasingly convinced he's not going to pan out." - crops.mlblogs.com

by DJCahill on May 28, 2009 4:49 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Sounds like

Rudy might be overruled.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on May 28, 2009 11:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think the numbers supported what Rudy originally said

But this latest stretch (even the 2 HR game), the eyeball test has been very cruel to CD. It makes me think he is overcorrecting to the point of making the issue even worse. I mean today he went all Kinsler with his pants and the other night he went Ike Turner on his bat.

Maybe an intervention involving Rudy, Ron, JD, The Stache, Nolan, a young priest and an old priest is what’s necessary at this point.

I used to shoot baskets

by SaltyDawg on May 29, 2009 7:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs