The Three True Outcomes of Chris Davis.

by DJCahill on May 27, 2009 1:21 PM CDT Comment 46 comments

After watching Chris Davis put together some great three true outcomes games (games in which the hitter keeps the ball out of play all night long), lately, I was wondering how far advanced he was on the path to being a TTO monster. For his career, he has a TTO/PA of .445, which would put him #5 on the all time list.

However, this year he is just smoking along at a .542 clip, which is just awesome. It means over half his PAs, the defense can just pick dandelions. Hopefully he can pick up his walk rate, and even have less balls in play.

It's awesome that you really don't have to worry about his BABIP because he so rarely puts the ball in play. We might be able to see the greatest TTO player in the history of baseball.

From the Recondite Baseball Blog

Rank	Name	PA	SO	BB	HR	TTO/PA
1	Rob Deer	4512	1409	575	230	.4907
2	Adam Dunn	4098	1092	675	238	.4893
3	Jim Thome	8427	2043	1459	507	.4757
4	Mark McGwire	7660	1596	1317	583	.4564
5	Mickey Tettleton	5745	1307	949	245	.4353
6	Pat Burrell	4743	1137	683	218	.4297
7	Jay Buhner	5927	1406	792	310	.4231
8	Brad Wilkerson	3444	879	457	118	.4222
9	Gorman Thomas	5486	1339	697	268	.4200
10	Troy Glaus	5203	1165	701	277	.4119
11	Danny Tartabull	5842	1362	768	262	.4094
12	Don Lock	3116	776	373	122	.4079
13	Jose Canseco	8129	1942	906	462	.4072
14	Mickey Mantle	9909	1710	1733	536	.4016
15	Reggie Jackson	11416	2597	1375	563	.3972
16	Darryl Strawberry	6326	1352	816	335	.3957
17	Gene Tenace	5525	998	984	201	.3951
18	Pete Incaviglia	4677	1277	360	206	.3941
19	Eric Davis	6147	1398	740	282	.3937
20	Jim Edmonds	7307	1587	919	362	.3925

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Comments

If only some of those PAs actually resulted in a higher OBP

I’d be thrilled if he became Adam Dunn with great defense at 1B. I’m beginning to lose patience with his lack of patience, though.

by NorCalRangersFan on May 27, 2009 1:50 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

People here....

have advocated trying to trade for Dunn for years. We now have him.

by bdavison94 on May 27, 2009 1:51 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Hardly

Adam Dunn walks 3 times as often as Davis, and gets on base at a .080 higher clip.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on May 27, 2009 2:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

Dunn>>>CD offensively… at least at this point. I’m still holding out hope for a little better contact and a much improved walk rate.

I have no objection to man walking on the moon.

by Chad Crudup on May 27, 2009 2:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Exactly

Dunn is a far, far, far better player than Chris Davis.

It’s like people see Dunn and say “See, a low average guy who hits lots of home runs can be valuable – so Davis can too!” while leaving aside the fact that Davis DOESN’T WALK

PhD

by JBImaknee on May 27, 2009 2:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

His walk rate

for his career is about average, basicly. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a BA-OBP spread of 060-070. Which is basicly average.

Certainly not great for a guy who will probably be a 270 hitter. That means is OBP is going to be in the 330 range. So he’ll have to be a .500 or so SLG guy to be worthwhile offensively at 1B.

"I'd praised catcher Max Ramirez two weeks ago, but after his continued struggles I'm increasingly convinced he's not going to pan out." - crops.mlblogs.com

by DJCahill on May 27, 2009 2:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

My worry is whether he can post a .270 average.

Because if he can’t, getting up to a .500 SLG and a reasonable OBP is going to be really, really hard. Having a SLG over .500 with an average that low means your weighted average hit is a double. I guess Davis could do that, but he’d be an unusual hitter.

I think if he could cut the K’s by a third (which would still be a decent K clip) or up his walks by 50% he’d be a productive hitter. But that doesn’t seem like as obvious an improvement for a guy like Davis as it seems to other people (yeah, yeah, 23, I get it)

PhD

by JBImaknee on May 27, 2009 3:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

It was really just a joke.

by bdavison94 on May 28, 2009 8:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

In that case

chuckle, chuckle.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on May 28, 2009 11:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fake

by oc on May 29, 2009 12:22 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's

what the unenthusiastic reply was supposed to convey.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on May 29, 2009 12:26 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I have been taken....

behind the woodshed by tball. Hurts. Hurts bad.

by bdavison94 on May 29, 2009 9:12 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

that list, like the approach, is so feast or famine

"I just want to comment on how it’s become like a common thing in the [MLB] for guys to fall in love with [the Rangers’s] sloppy seconds." (thanks cstorm)

by ab03 on May 27, 2009 1:56 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

i knew Rob Deer

had to be at the top of some list. Now I know which one.

Man, I love winning! You know? It's like better than losing!

by SteveP on May 27, 2009 1:59 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Speaking of Deer...

…check out his 1987 and 1991 campaigns.

.530 and .536 respectively. Amazing.

I have no objection to man walking on the moon.

by Chad Crudup on May 27, 2009 2:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Even more amazing

Davis is ahead of both those paces.

"I'd praised catcher Max Ramirez two weeks ago, but after his continued struggles I'm increasingly convinced he's not going to pan out." - crops.mlblogs.com

by DJCahill on May 27, 2009 2:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

i would be happy if he was any of thos top 7 guys

with his defense at first…thats not a bad player

i kind of like the carlos pena-comp
pena: .251 BA, .357 obp, .502 slg
chris davis (last 2 years): .258 BA, .308 OBP, .521 slg

say he bumps it up to about a .320-.330 OBP — thats a pretty damn good player

Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
-
Scout to KG: On Sandoval: "Man, that fat [expletive]-er can hit."

by knockoutking on May 27, 2009 2:12 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

a .12 difference in OBP

makes him a damn good player??? I doubt that.

by rothe on May 27, 2009 10:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

.012

by rothe on May 27, 2009 10:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

oops

meant .330-.340 (about .20 below pena in OBP) + about .20 above pena in slg + his defense

Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
-
Scout to KG: On Sandoval: "Man, that fat [expletive]-er can hit."

by knockoutking on May 28, 2009 11:06 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hmm

I don’t know that I’d ever aspire to the heights of Rob Deer or Brad Wilkerson. But I’ll take most of the others on that list.

That's why they call them business sox

by egriffey on May 27, 2009 2:16 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

the 1991 tigers were great

rob deer
mickey tettleton
Pete Incaviglia

surprised these tigers aren’t on that list:
cecil fielder
travis fryman

facing that team was a strikeout pitcher’s dream. and a shortstop’s night off

Omar Vizquel: your starting shortstop for the 2009 AL all-star team.

by gossamer on May 27, 2009 2:33 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I only wish Chris Davis coule be a TTO guy

He can’t walk. If he doesn’t learn to walk at least 80 or so times a year, he’ll not only fail to become a TTO guy, he’ll be a lead balloon on the offense of whatever team he plays for.

Everyone on that list, with the exception of Incaviglia, walked in over 10% of their plate appearances – some well over that ratio. Davis has walked 30 times in 483 PAs!

Davis may be a TTO – but that first T is Two. And that amounts to a baseball player who I don’t want on this team.

PhD

by JBImaknee on May 27, 2009 2:49 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

heh

he’s only 23

Omar Vizquel: your starting shortstop for the 2009 AL all-star team.

by gossamer on May 27, 2009 2:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

do players learn to double their walk rate?

PhD

by JBImaknee on May 27, 2009 2:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

no

but they can get a little better.

almost all of those guys (at glance, no calculation) got a little better over a few seasons.

davis can certainly do that.

Omar Vizquel: your starting shortstop for the 2009 AL all-star team.

by gossamer on May 27, 2009 3:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

But there is also a selection bias in there

Cahill just put up a list of guys with 3000 career PAs and who actually got walks. What about guys who fizzled out before 3000 career PAs, or guys who never learned to walk enough to get onto this list?

Remember this guy?

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/balbost01.shtml

I have an irrational hatred of Chris Davis because his Ks are way too ugly and irrational liking of Matt Harrison because he's a lefty - deal with it.

by JBImaknee on May 27, 2009 3:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

3440

What’s wrong with that?

"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008

by Rodney on May 27, 2009 3:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

hmm

well i could say that barry bonds, gary shefield and sammy sosa all learned how to walk more. but those guys are special types of players.

Omar Vizquel: your starting shortstop for the 2009 AL all-star team.

by gossamer on May 27, 2009 3:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

oh

and jeff bagwell

Omar Vizquel: your starting shortstop for the 2009 AL all-star team.

by gossamer on May 27, 2009 3:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I remember him

He played OKC at the end of his career AND he was on a WS champ as their slugger. Id take that! ha

by Michael Cave on May 27, 2009 3:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

No, but they sometimes return to their minor league walk rate.

Which seemed to vary a bit (his meteoric rise led to a lot of SSS minor league stops), but was at around 10% at a couple of stops.

It’s possible the 6% walk rate Chris Davis is the real Chris Davis, but it’s also entirely possible that he’s a 10% walk rate guy who we’re all knee jerking on way too hard early in his sophomore campaign.

The 40 Trumps All!!!

Chris Davis will be fine. Relax.

by thedirkatron on May 27, 2009 3:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

If Davis went to a 10% walk rate

then I’d be perfectly happy with him.

I have an irrational hatred of Chris Davis because his Ks are way too ugly and irrational liking of Matt Harrison because he's a lefty - deal with it.

by JBImaknee on May 27, 2009 3:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Happy?

I’d dance a jig if Davis had a 10% walk rate.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on May 27, 2009 4:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Except for the amount of ABs

Over Davis’ minor and major league career, he has only twice had stint where his walk rate was more than 10% of his PAs – during 110 PAs in AA in 2007, and 127 PAs in AAA last year. Over his 1129 PAs during his entire minor league career, on the other hand, he walked only 7.4% of the time. Over his 479 PAs in the major leagues, his walk rate has been 6.2%. In other words, there is a decent chance that his walk rate will rise somewhat naturally, though not an especially strong one. There is also the possibility that his ability to draw walks will improve, either a little or dramatically, but that will require true offensive progress on his part.

TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems

by OldProspects on May 27, 2009 8:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

In other words

There is a good possibility of clouds today, with a partial sunniness interrupting an otherwise overcast afternoon.

I'm Matt mutha-effing Bush, bitches, and mutha-eff East County.

"I'm as passionate and knowlegeable as any fan out there." Josey Wales

by Brian Thomas on May 27, 2009 9:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well, he's 23

And his power is about as exceptional as any other player in the minors or majors. It’s substantial enough that even with a ludicrously high strikeout rate, his offensive production is roughly equivalent to that of Mike Jacobs, who has been a starting 1B for a fair amount of time. When you combine that offensive production with his defense, he is a valuable player. If Davis can reduce his strikeout rate to even somewhat manageable levels, to what it had been in the minors or last year, then he could be an excellent hitter. If he can also increase his walks, then he might be an outstanding hitter. That, however, requires progress

TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems

by OldProspects on May 28, 2009 12:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Much clearer explanation the 2nd time

Thanks.

I'm Matt mutha-effing Bush, bitches, and mutha-eff East County.

"I'm as passionate and knowlegeable as any fan out there." Josey Wales

by Brian Thomas on May 28, 2009 3:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

the only way he can expect to walk is if he can get back to hitting fastballs

otherwise, there’s no reason to not throw a fastball in the strikezone to him

"I just want to comment on how it’s become like a common thing in the [MLB] for guys to fall in love with [the Rangers’s] sloppy seconds." (thanks cstorm)

by ab03 on May 27, 2009 2:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Davis' three true outcomes

Home run, strikeout swinging, strikeout looking

"He's old school in that he give up his groin like that. It hurt me when he do that" -- Worsh on Chris Davis' stretch at first base to end the game vs. the Angels on 5/16

by tricer on May 27, 2009 3:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

If KLaw pops in today,

he’s gotta be smiling.

"I saw your act, just didn't make it for me. Just a lot of fluff."

by scoop16 on May 27, 2009 3:05 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Anytime

people are whining about KLaw’s snarky comments, you can usually bet on the folks complaining about the snarkiness being lost.

"I'd praised catcher Max Ramirez two weeks ago, but after his continued struggles I'm increasingly convinced he's not going to pan out." - crops.mlblogs.com

by DJCahill on May 27, 2009 3:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

he'd probably pick a day after

Chris Davis didn’t hit 2 bombs in a game.

Man, I love winning! You know? It's like better than losing!

by SteveP on May 27, 2009 3:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Chris Davis is a two true outcomes guy at this point.

Wonderboy, what is the secret of your power? Wonderboy, won't you take me far away from the mucky-muck now. -- Tenacious D

by rooster on May 27, 2009 4:05 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I remember reading an article about Thome 4-5 years ago

One of Thome’s alleged traits of greatness, aside from his being “country strong” and a “union-lunch-pail” kind of player (he supposedly was partially enticed to sign w/ the City of Brotherly Shove b/c of a certain local union’s picketage, according to the piece), was that he never, ever got “cheated” on an at-bat.

Being cheated, evidently, was failing to swing so hard your eyes popped out of their sockets every last everloving time you deigned to lift the bat off your country-strong, lunchpail-luggin shoulders.

Seemed kind of a dimwitted analysis and/or philosophy at the time . Still does. Am I missing sumpin? Cuz I fail to how a hitter, no matter how much wood he is bringing, is best served by this approach.

Mrs. Sauce can vouch for this. She frequently complains that I bring too much lumber to the shed. Which of us is perfect, I counter?

I'm Matt mutha-effing Bush, bitches, and mutha-eff East County.

"I'm as passionate and knowlegeable as any fan out there." Josey Wales

by Brian Thomas on May 27, 2009 7:06 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs