Pre-season Predictions
by truetexan on May 30, 2009 3:34 PM CDT
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PrintNow that we have the best record in American League, and 2nd best in Baseball, can we go interview all these Pecota type companies who predicted the rangers to finsh with less than 70 wins and the worst record in baseball? Since it was almost universal among the statistical community that the Rangers had no shot, is their current run not that much more amazing! That being said we have a lot of baseball left to be played, but right now with the way the Angels are playing, we have a real shot at this.
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all i know is
hank hill is not a true texan
go here to view my blog: http://dirtfromd.blogspot.com
by studcrackers on May 30, 2009 3:43 PM CDT up reply actions
not sure if you've seen it
but hank hill was born in new york in the ladies restroom at yankees stadium
go here to view my blog: http://dirtfromd.blogspot.com
by studcrackers on May 30, 2009 4:20 PM CDT up reply actions
i was just playin' y'all
so don’t get offended… just a little fun. I ain’t serious.
Bobby Jindal '12
i'm with orange.
2/3 ain’t bad. and its not offensive, just immature.
"Anyone that isn't pro-choice never met you" ~Brian Thomas on Seth...
having texas be your middle name?
- raises hand *
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
-
Scout to KG: On Sandoval: "Man, that fat [expletive]-er can hit."
by knockoutking on May 31, 2009 1:12 PM CDT up reply actions
Personally...
…I think the error in the statistical models was a result of underestimating the defensive improvement.
I don't see how you could think otherwise after watching the rangers this year.
the preceding post was a great success.
I think the defensive improvement
explains most of the difference between last years team, which had one of hte worst defenses in baseball, and this years team, which is one of the better ones.
"Guillermo Moscoso despite his stunning game yesterday, is not a legit prospect. He is simply too old, too skinny, too weak, and lacks the fastball to make it at the professional level. ." - crops.mlblogs.com
Yes
Even if you think all that defensive metrics and range stuff are ghost stories. We can take the simplest case:
Last year the team gave up 107 unearned runs; they have given up 13 so far this year. If that is projected through the remainder of the season, they are on pace to give up 44 unearned runs this entire season. That is a reduction of 63 runs. Assuming a total of 1440 innings pitched for the staff for the season, you get a reduction of 0.4 in ERA because of improved defense. That is, every pitcher on the staff gets their ERA reduced by 0.4. Is that a big deal?
And that’s from errors alone, range improvements take that further.
umm
How does unearned runs effect ERA?
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
Mitch Moreland - 2009 Rangers Minor League POY
It doesn't
but a run is a run, so it’s the same thing as no defensive improvements, but lowering ERA by 0.4
The point is the same.
I agree. I think you just worded it strangely.
by NoNameOnCard on May 30, 2009 4:39 PM CDT up reply actions
I agree
There was the expected improvement from the Andrus/Young switch, but not many people looked at the other positions like 2B, 1B, C, and CF which all had the talent there to see a big improvement.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
Anyone want to do the math on the defense at 3B so far?
Young’s UZR isn’t great, but how much better or worse is he than what we had last year?
by NoNameOnCard on May 30, 2009 4:40 PM CDT up reply actions
At best a wash, to this point.
All Rangers 3B combined for a -26.6 UZR on the season. This year, through 45 games, Young is at -7.9, or a -29.5 UZR/150. You would expect the number to come back up a bit as he learns the position; Young is a -8.9 on range alone.
by Outworlder47 on May 30, 2009 4:49 PM CDT up reply actions
youngs number was -38 per 150 not that long ago
so I guess UZR thinks he has been playing better lately.
the preceding post was a great success.
I think he has been getting better at the routine play.
His range still sucks, to my eyes.
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008
well, and dramatically overestimating the other West clubs
The defense is a good explanation for why the Rangers were passed over. But their projections of the A’s were just embarrassingly bad so far. Maybe injuries have played a role, but I think that the A’s have been bad this year because they don’t really have very good players
I have an irrational hatred of Chris Davis because his Ks are way too ugly and irrational liking of Matt Harrison because he's a lefty - deal with it.
The rest of the West
Angels:
they started the year with a pretty crowded DL. And now, they are having the same problem they had last year. No power. Also, Mike Sciosa’s reluctance to play Brandon Wood is a bit puzzling.
M’s:
they peaked early. Erik Bedard has been everything they thought they were getting when they overpaid for him. Washburn has been pretty decent. Besides that, their bullpen has been inconsistent and the offense, almost non-existent.
A’s:
Injured starters. Rookie starters. Matt Holiday sucking.
"Yeah, like I had a chance there" - Lancaster batter, after striking out against Derek Holland
I just don't think Holliday is getting much to hit in that lineup.
He struggled in April because he wasn’t patient, 3/12 BB/K, but he adjusted pretty well this month, 19/16 BB/K. The power is still lacking, though.
not to mention I think we've had more offensive players under achieve our expectaions
than we’ve had hitter exceed them. Its atleast close. Ian-bad, Mike-good, Ham-bad/bad/bad, Jones-meh(very good though), Blalock-decent to good, Davis-bad/bad/bad/bad/bad/bad, Bryd-meh to good, Murphy-bad, Cruz-good/good/good, Salt-decent to good, Elvis-very good.
Thats all a jumble but basically a few guys have been on par, a few guys have been better than expected, a few have been worse than expected, but the offense is overachieving to a point where you feel it’s responsible for the record.
by groundingout on May 31, 2009 7:29 PM CDT up reply actions
agree with ajm
the defensive improvement and its effects on the pitching staff were under-rated. though with hammy/CD/hank struggling thus far offensively and only being offset by elvis and andruw for over-performers, you’d have to wonder how its all working out…
"Anyone that isn't pro-choice never met you" ~Brian Thomas on Seth...
it's May, right?
let’s revisit this in two weeks when the rangers are finished with the bataan death march
after today, rangers will be looking at decent teams with greater regularity
of immediate concern – the next 13 games that could see TEX 5-8 or worse
i am delighted that TEX is in first w/ second best record in MLB, but i am a lot concerned about what lies ahead
Agree
and take out the AL West — all three other teams have major problems, injuries, etc. — and the Rangers don’t look as impressive.
The story here:
1. Defense.
2. Health – the Rangers have had fewer injuries so far
3. The rest of the division has sucked.
I think the projection systems placed too much emphasis on performances affected by injuries and didn’t account for improved defense. If you’re rotation goes down and you’re forced to dip waaaaaaay into your system for 8th, 9th starters (and even beyond) too often, your team ERA is simply going to suck. Plus the defense sucked. Of course, no one thought Elvis would be this good on defense this quickly, or that the overall defense would be this much better.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
By the same token...
Take out teams that play their home games in Michigan, and the Rangers are the shit.
by NoNameOnCard on Jun 1, 2009 12:30 AM CDT up reply actions
Well
6-7 vs. East, 8-10 vs. Central, 13-3 versus the West, 3-0 versus the NL.
Versus the West or the Astros, the Rangers are the shit.
"Guillermo Moscoso despite his stunning game yesterday, is not a legit prospect. He is simply too old, too skinny, too weak, and lacks the fastball to make it at the professional level. ." - crops.mlblogs.com
other than Detroit.
"Guillermo Moscoso despite his stunning game yesterday, is not a legit prospect. He is simply too old, too skinny, too weak, and lacks the fastball to make it at the professional level. ." - crops.mlblogs.com
I think you've understated it.
The Rangers are 16-3 against those 4 teams. That’s like being the shit and still smelling sexy.
The Angles have 3 AT
Tor
Det
TB
I don’t think it too much of a stretch to seem them go 3-6 there, either.
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008
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