Random Ranger plate discipline stats
by lonestarJon on May 7, 2009 6:37 PM CDT
52 comments
Accumulated from Fangraphs leaderboards:
- BB%: 7.2, second-lowest in majors
- K%: 23.1, 6th-highest in majors
- BB/K: .33, lowest in majors
- Swing%: 49.5, second highest in majors
- Z-swing%: 73.3, highest in majors
- O-Swing%: 27.2, fourth highest in majors
- Contact%: 74.7%, lowest in majors
- Z-Contact%: 81.9, lowest in majors
- O-Contact%: 56.5, second-lowest in majors
So, first off the most noteable stat is the Rangers have the second-worst walk rate in the majors. In our company is Seattle (the only team worse than us) with a 7.1, and the Giants who are one above us with a 7.3. From there it jumps over an entire point to the Twins and Angels at 8.4. The mean would seem to be in the mid-high 9's to low 10's, judging by the leaderboard.
Now, our K% is only 6th-worst in the majors (the Brewers, Rays, DBacks, Nats and Marlins are all worse) But the lack of walks means we have the majors worst BB/K ratio of .33%. To put that in perspective, the Giants (.34) are the only other team below .41. Scary.
You'll also see we've swung at the second most pitches in the majors overall - only the Giants have barely swung at more, offering at 49.6% of the pitches they've seen. After the Rangers and the Giants things drop 2 whole points to the Mariners at 47.3 and the White Sox at 47.1. The mean would seem to be in the 44% range.
We're the only team in the majors that has swung at over 70% of pitches in the zone (z-swing%). I suppose we can take a certain amount of comfort in the fact that while our 27.2 O-swing% (the amount of pitches out of the zone we've swung at) is pretty bad, it's nowhere near the Giants MLB-worst 32.2%... a kind of morbid comfort, anyway.
Now, as far as making contact goes... well, we've been horrible at that, too. Our 74.7 contact% is almost three points lower than the second to last Brewers (77.1). There's only one other team below 78%, and that's the Diamondbacks who have the worst OBP in the majors (and still, by the way, have a 9.0 BB%).
As the overall number would indicate, the contact numbers for pitches in the zone are also horrible - the 81.9 z-contact% is again 2-3 points lower than the second to last Brewers (84.2). But hey, at least we're 2 points better at making contact with pitches out of the zone (56.5%) than the dead-last Padres (54.3%).
To summarize:
Well, we're not walking, which is because we're swinging at everything. We're also having lots of problems making contact - yet we have the majors 5th-highest BABIP at .321. I'm admittedly not the smartest guy when it comes to drawing conclusions from this kind of stuff, but it looks to me like we've been incredibly lucky so far for a team that can't get on base any other way than hacking it's way aboard. Unless this offense can maintain another BABIP in the 320's again (they did it last year to the tune of .329) I would think we could be in for a big decline in runs scored if (or when) that BABIP comes down, unless this offense seriously revises it's approach.
***
So waddya think guys? Does this mean anything, or am I just overreacting?And please tell me it's the latter.
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gross.
It’s a good thing the Rangers are leading MLB in homeruns. Otherwise our runs scored would look pretty gross right now.
"LSB: We’re all-scaploading, all the time." -AJM
by BAC on May 7, 2009 6:45 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
but
thanks for the post.
"LSB: We’re all-scaploading, all the time." -AJM
by BAC on May 7, 2009 6:46 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
YW
"That start was like somebody on a deathbed suddenly jumping up and doing the Lindy Hop, then speeding away on a pogo stick while playing the fiddle." - Telegraph
by lonestarJon on May 7, 2009 7:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think it means we need to start hitting like we did last year?
I'm just goofin' new boot goofin'
by iorange555 on May 7, 2009 6:50 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Well, no, I would think it means we need to stop swinging at everything and start walking like we did last year.
Our 9.4 BB% in 2008 was 9th in baseball.
"That start was like somebody on a deathbed suddenly jumping up and doing the Lindy Hop, then speeding away on a pogo stick while playing the fiddle." - Telegraph
by lonestarJon on May 7, 2009 6:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hitting, walking.
Apples, oranges.
I'm just goofin' new boot goofin'
by iorange555 on May 7, 2009 6:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not really.
"That start was like somebody on a deathbed suddenly jumping up and doing the Lindy Hop, then speeding away on a pogo stick while playing the fiddle." - Telegraph
by lonestarJon on May 7, 2009 6:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
you didn't even use "apples, oranges" correctly
but yes, they are apples and oranges
by ab03 on May 7, 2009 9:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think
P/PA and LD% stats will also tell you a lot about luck vs. skill.
"Hustle doesn't cost a dime and it looks good." - Pete Rose as Channeled by Marcus Lemon
by FirebatM3 on May 7, 2009 6:53 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't know where to find the team P/PA though.
Haven’t see that on Fangraphs I don’t think.
Our LD% however is 22.1, second highest in the majors.
"That start was like somebody on a deathbed suddenly jumping up and doing the Lindy Hop, then speeding away on a pogo stick while playing the fiddle." - Telegraph
by lonestarJon on May 7, 2009 6:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hmm
if that’s the case, our BABIP is probably lower than it should be.
"Hustle doesn't cost a dime and it looks good." - Pete Rose as Channeled by Marcus Lemon
by FirebatM3 on May 7, 2009 7:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think
they should both regress. The LD% is a little higher than average which might explain why the BABIP is a little high. Hopefully they can learn how to walk before too long.
"Embarrassing admission: I have never, ever, ever been able to see a guy's aura. That's right. I...am an aura-blind American." -Junior, FJM
by Desert Ranger on May 7, 2009 8:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Do we have players who can put up a line drive rate above average, though?
I know I can look that up myself, but I’m lazy.
by philkid3 on May 7, 2009 9:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Franchise Face
led the ML in LD% year before last IIRC.
Doctor please. Some more of these.
by tricer on May 7, 2009 9:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
P/PA (from baseball-reference)
Andrus: 3.54
Blalock: 3.33
Byrd: 3.26
Cruz: 3.88
Davis: 3.85
Hamilton: 3.63
Jones: 4.02
Kinsler: 3.96
Murphy: 4.37
Salty: 3.99
Teagarden: 4.47
Vizquel: 3.29
Young: 3.66
I was actually looking at similar stuff the other day. The thing that I’m a little worried about is:
Josh Hamilton Zone-Swing%: 93.7% (!!!!!)
So if it’s in the zone, Hamilton is swinging at it. No matter what. Average is in the 50 to 60s
"Embarrassing admission: I have never, ever, ever been able to see a guy's aura. That's right. I...am an aura-blind American." -Junior, FJM
by Desert Ranger on May 7, 2009 8:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I've seen it for individual players on statcorner
They didn’t have it for the entire team though and I wasn’t aware BR had it too. I guess haven’t been paying near enough attention to the new improved BR – d’oh.
Anyway, apparently we’re seeing 3.75 P/PA as a team, which is 5th worst in the AL and 9th worst in baseball. Blech.
And re: Hamilton – geebus, that is crazy. I really hope he’s got things back together when he comes off the DL.
"That start was like somebody on a deathbed suddenly jumping up and doing the Lindy Hop, then speeding away on a pogo stick while playing the fiddle." - Telegraph
by lonestarJon on May 7, 2009 10:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Zone-Swing%
Isn’t that something you want to be high? Probably not 90%, but if it is a hittable strike (not a 1999 Mariano Rivera strike), you probably want to swing.
The number that should be interesting is the complementary number – Out of Zone swinging. Hamilton has gone from 26.9% to 34.7% to 38.2%. That seems more worrisome.
At least when he swings at pitches in the zone, his contact rate is 75% (still down from last year @ 85%). Chris Davis is only making contact with 59% of his in-zone swings. That is insanely low.
Look at Blalock’s numbers. For a guy who everyone accuses of Hacking away when he gets up there, his numbers aren’t that extreme and haven’t changed all that much from his youth.
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1419&position=3B#platediscipline
by JBImaknee on May 8, 2009 9:07 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hank's problem is selection
He makes contact with too many pitches he can’t do much with.
by tyd3311 on May 8, 2009 9:16 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
No it's not something you want to be high.
It means he HAS to swing at everything in or near the zone, even if it’s a pitcher’s pitch. And that’s because he swings at so much out of the zone and gets behind in the count quickly. Most MLB pitchers can hit a corner…it’s not just Rivera.
I’m a big Blalock detractor, but even though he barely takes BBs this year he’s not as bad of a hacker as he was a couple years ago. Last year he (along with others on the team) seemed to make progress with that but got hurt.
by Black Francis on May 8, 2009 10:53 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
And also, as painful as watching Hank has been. . .
. . . he’s still on his way to being about an average DH, perhaps a bit better. He’s aggrivating, but he’s not actually hurting us the way we feel he is in the game day threads.
by philkid3 on May 8, 2009 4:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I gotta believe
anyone with a .275 OBP is hurting you. I know he has big power numbers, but thats a lot of outs he is putting on the board.
4/10/09 - Josh Hamilton's last walk.
"You know a pitching prospect isn't any good if John Daniels doesn't trade him away but keeps him insteaad." - http://crops.mlblogs.com/
"You probably can throw Neftali Feliz on that group of overblown Rangers pitching prospect failures." - http://crops.mlblogs.com/
by DJCahill on May 8, 2009 5:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
But he's making up for it with how much he helps when he doesn't get out.
There is a question as to how much he can sustain it with just awful discipline, of course.
by philkid3 on May 8, 2009 7:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
One of the weaknesses of OPS
Is that it overvalues SLG.
OBP is definitely more important than SLG yet it makes up less proportionally of OPS than SLG.
Some would say that OBP is as much as 3 or 4 times as valuable as SLG.
So, a .275 OBP is likely well below average for a DH, and enough to make his good SLG near replacement (if not below).
R
by Requiem on May 8, 2009 7:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Correct.
Which is why I didn’t look at OPS when making that assessment. I looked at wOBA and WAR. And it’s not enough by those measures to pull his slugging down to below replacement, and just enough to put him on pace to be worth, I believe, 2.4 wins (which is a little bit above average).
by philkid3 on May 9, 2009 12:04 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hank's BaBIP
.228 right now, .303 career mark.
I like THT’s PrOPS (predicted OPS). Interestingly, both Chris Davis and Blalock (and even Andrus to a lesser extent) are among the unluckier players so far this year. Davis’ OPS “should” be .845 and Blalock “should” have an .875 number. Among the luckier ones are Byrd, Young, and Kinsler (though Young and Kinsler would still have stout numbers anyway).
http://tinyurl.com/thtpropspage
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by t ball on May 9, 2009 12:55 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow, seriously?
I definitely wouldn’t have guessed that. I didn’t bother looking at it, but I would have figured Blalock would be a good regression candidate in the bad way.
Seriously bizarre.
by philkid3 on May 9, 2009 1:15 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The part that's hurting us
Is having a guy who creates that many outs hitting cleanup, IMO. A guy who creates that many outs should probably be in the 6-7-8 holes, IMO. Only problem is we’ve already got a hacker with power and no OBP in that part of the lineup (Davis). I don’t think we need two there, lest the ensuing OBP-black whole swallow up the universe.
"That start was like somebody on a deathbed suddenly jumping up and doing the Lindy Hop, then speeding away on a pogo stick while playing the fiddle." - Telegraph
by lonestarJon on May 8, 2009 7:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, he should not be hitting cleanup.
Probably not even in the top five. I could maybe see him third if the 1, 2, 4 and 5 hitters were used appropriately.
by philkid3 on May 9, 2009 12:05 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
While increased plate discipline would be nice, the BABIP doesn't necessarily mean we're lucky.
Hitters do have some control over that, and we may just have a line up with the ability to produce a lot of line drives. A look at how well our line up hitting balls compared to their career norms would be pretty helpful.
I honestly don’t think we’ve been lucky per se, though I’m not sure what we’ve done is necessarily sustainable.
by philkid3 on May 7, 2009 7:13 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
And, as you've pointed out, it's in line with what this offense did last year.
The question is just if they’ll continue to get pitches they can smoak if they’re not waiting patiently for them.
by philkid3 on May 7, 2009 7:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think this offense is lacking ....
…a guy in the middle of the order that makes the pitchers work, and can hit for power. I also would like pony and faberge egg.
That's why they call them business sox
by egriffey on May 7, 2009 7:23 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
...or they're just not willing to play him.
by LiamP on May 7, 2009 7:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, that's a burn! You just got burned, Wash! Burned, man. Burned.
by philkid3 on May 7, 2009 7:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
AJ?
That's why they call them business sox
by egriffey on May 7, 2009 7:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes
He’s not going to be MB circa 2008, but I think he’ll do well enough.
by LiamP on May 7, 2009 7:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
AJ and Smoak
for Byrd and Blalock will give this offense a needed boost if they’re still hacktastic in late May/Early June.
"Hustle doesn't cost a dime and it looks good." - Pete Rose as Channeled by Marcus Lemon
by FirebatM3 on May 7, 2009 7:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Byrd is on track to have a career year
I’m all for ditching Blalock, and if Crush is still whiffing 3 out of 5 abs by the All Star break, I’d get Smoak in there too. However, I also happen to think that Murph needs to get a lot of abs. He seems to be the only guy working the count (though he did swing at the first pitch a couple of times today), and I’m confident he’s out of his slump.
That's why they call them business sox
by egriffey on May 7, 2009 8:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
sample size
I remember an article on fangraphs this winter, but I can’t seem to find it right now, regarding sample size for different rates. The jest of it was that when considering different phenomena , it takes different sample sizes to have significant results. Walk rate requires the smallest sample size for a significant trend to emerge. I think that batting average required several hundred at bats to determine what would be considered a robust number, while walk rate was only something like 50-100 plate appearances.
If I’m remembering this correctly, that would mean that the disturbing trend that we see in regards to plate discipline this year is probably something that won’t change significantly.
If somebody could search around and find that link, I’d like to take another look at it.
Doctor please. Some more of these.
by tricer on May 7, 2009 9:59 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
fangraphs
why don’t they have a search function for articles or an archive?
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by t ball on May 7, 2009 11:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
there is
by dkappelman on May 7, 2009 11:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Odd
Kind of hard to find, thanks. I wasn’t able to find anything using “sample size” as a keyword. Tricer, I found one regarding sample size in comparing projection systems, is this it?
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/how-good-is-that-projection
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by t ball on May 8, 2009 9:51 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The strangest
thing for me, is that Blalock and Byrd, two guys who have a track record of being averagish when it comes to walks, have both turned into absolute hackers.
Also, it surprised me that Davis is actually walking at a higher rate than guys like Kinsler and Young.
"A good start would be not giving up 900 runs again." -Jon Daniels
by Randy Richardson on May 7, 2009 11:30 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
graphs
Wonder waht their BB/gm and P/PA look like when put on a graph. Maybe a weekend project for me.
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
by RangerMad on May 8, 2009 12:30 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Hamilton was quite patient in the second half last year
I hope he can get back in that mindset when he comes back.
Then swap blalock for smoak later this year…
the preceding post was a great success.
by DSheppard on May 8, 2009 4:30 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Good stuff, Jonny.
Hate the numbers, but nevertheless…
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008
by Rodney on May 8, 2009 10:38 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Pitching has something to do with it.
The Rangers have faced some good pitching the last 8 games. With Cahill pitching well and before that Bedard, King Felix, Danks, Beuhrle and the A’s ace Dallas Braden. The only weak starters they faced were Contreras and Giese. That has depressed their numbers a bit even though they have been hitting well.
We will see how the next 9 games change those numbers. They will face much weaker starting pitching. Only Danks, Washburn and maybe Jered Weaver in the next nine games are any good. I wouldn’t be surprised if they win a bunch of these games, score a bunch of runs and improve their walk rates.
by brentash on May 8, 2009 10:41 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Good point, with caveat.
As I said after the Seattle game Hernandez started, you can’t get ahead in the count as a batter if Hernandez is always throwing first pitch strikes. I still think the Rangers aren’t patient enough, but the level of competition lately has been very high on the mound.
Of course, if they want to make the playoffs someday, that’s exactly the kind of pitcher they’ll be facing, so it would behoove them to figure out how to make them work a bit more.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
by t ball on May 8, 2009 12:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
nice stuff jon
i dont have much to add other than i think this tendency will probably hold over the entire season, though it should mitigate at least a little for guys like davis and hamilton.
i would love it if this team could have at least one nick johnson (when he’s healthy) type guy. someone you can count on to hit triple digits in walks if he plays the full season. but i dont see that from anyone in our current crop of guys.
by Smoakin in the Boys Room on May 9, 2009 1:11 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I would say
A Jones should be hitting clean-up, but once again, we’re speaking about small sample size- Is Jones’ rebound for real?
I don’t miss his hi-jinks or his attitude, but I miss Bradley’s OBP. (Of course, he’s off to a bad DL-trip start with the Cubs.)
beneath the paving stones, the beach!
by oklib77 on May 11, 2009 11:26 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
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