Baseball Prospectus: American League Playoff Odds

Blue Jays 73.2%
Royals 62.5%
Rangers 50.1%
Tigers 37.4%
Red Sox 30.7%

6 months ago philkid3 27 comments 0 recs |

Comments

Figured after that game, something positive would be nice.

Just don’t click on the PECOTA adjusted odds.

Also, as mentioned in the post game thread, 1/6 of the way through the season, our second-order record (15-12) is almost as close to second place in the division as it is to the best record in the AL, and exactly in line with our actual record.

And That Happened: Sports with a Hint of Sarcasm

by philkid3 on May 7, 2009 7:09 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I am very glad someone posted this. I have thought since the offseason that the Rangers had a lot better chance than people were giving them.

by Mark from OC on May 7, 2009 11:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I enjoy your selective sampling of the odds reports between here and the BtB post ; )

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on May 8, 2009 3:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

He knows his audience!

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on May 9, 2009 12:23 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I like those odds

in this division, anything is possible.

That's why they call them business sox

by egriffey on May 7, 2009 7:37 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Nice!

I bet on them at 10:1

by BuckyB on May 7, 2009 7:42 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Josey is so proud of his

“Lil Hillmans”!

"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008

by Rodney on May 7, 2009 7:43 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I glossed them the

“Feisty Hillmans’” today, thank you.

"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."

by Josey Wales on May 7, 2009 11:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I hate asking this

…but this isn’t taking into account all the Angels injuries is it?

by TRanger on May 7, 2009 8:06 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

SHHHHHHHHHH!

And That Happened: Sports with a Hint of Sarcasm

by philkid3 on May 7, 2009 8:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

This assumes that...

…performance to date will continue going forward.

by Adam J. Morris on May 7, 2009 8:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, as said. Don't look at the PECOTA adjustment.

It will harsh your mellow.

And That Happened: Sports with a Hint of Sarcasm

by philkid3 on May 7, 2009 8:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

how bad is it?

"Hang-Dai, Wu...Hang-Fu$&ing-Dai"

by Walter Sobchak on May 7, 2009 10:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

so you're saying there's a chance......

"Does this effectively hide my thunder?"

by Bob Loblaw on May 7, 2009 8:09 PM CDT reply actions 2 recs

I soooo

wanted to post that. Nice call.

I had a secret meeting in the basement of my brain.

by red shoe ranger on May 7, 2009 9:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's freaky to look at

even if I don’t believe it. I’d put the odds closer to 15-20% right now.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on May 7, 2009 9:31 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

MINIMIZE THIS POST IF YOU DON'T WANT TO BE SAD

The adjusted odds are at 17%, so you’re probably pretty realistic.

And That Happened: Sports with a Hint of Sarcasm

by philkid3 on May 7, 2009 9:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

No

I’m just a mindless cheerleader according to some.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on May 7, 2009 10:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just remembered

weren’t they something awful like 7% preseason? 17% is a big improvement.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on May 7, 2009 10:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

if we keep improving by 10% every 25 games

I’ll take it

"Hang-Dai, Wu...Hang-Fu$&ing-Dai"

by Walter Sobchak on May 7, 2009 10:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I believe you are correct.

And That Happened: Sports with a Hint of Sarcasm

by philkid3 on May 7, 2009 11:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would currently put it at

2 to 5%

by SaltyGoesYard on May 8, 2009 12:26 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

And the Angels at 85%?

by tyd3311 on May 8, 2009 12:35 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

STFU!>!>>>??

"The House That Ruth Built, 85 years old, goes out as The House That Hamilton Knocked Down"

by blalock84 on May 8, 2009 12:45 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I try to keep my expectations as tempered as possible...

But did Josey steal your UID password or something? I think every team in this division has a better chance of going to the postseason than 2 to 5%.

"That start was like somebody on a deathbed suddenly jumping up and doing the Lindy Hop, then speeding away on a pogo stick while playing the fiddle." - Telegraph

Hello Win Column

by lonestarJon on May 8, 2009 1:46 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

right not

each is at 25%. imho

Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year

by RangerMad on May 8, 2009 7:24 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I was one of the most down people on the Rangers at this blog in the pre-season.

And I definitely would have called 2% laughable without some sort of historically reliable evidence behind it. And my “confidence” has definitely gone up since that point.

And That Happened: Sports with a Hint of Sarcasm

by philkid3 on May 8, 2009 4:18 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs