The Chris Davis Phenomenon
by Adam J. Morris on May 9, 2009 9:26 PM CDT
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PrintI'm concerned about the safety of Rangers fans right now. I'm afraid folks are going to hurt themselves, as they are pushing and shoving in their rush to jump off the Chris Davis bandwagon.
I have to say, it is stunning to me how it seems like so many fans have soured on a guy who was one of the most popular players on the team at the end of last year, a guy who it seemed like Rangers fans were being almost irrationally optimistic about.
The guy who everyone was penciling in as a key part of the future is now being dismissed, with folks seemingly anxiously counting the days until Justin Smoak can be called up to take his place.
He's 23 years old, people. He's a young power hitter who throughout his pro career has struck out a lot and been pretty streaky. He's going through a rough stretch right now...but he's also a guy who is a hard worker, who has shown a good approach and a willingness to make adjustments as he's moved up, and who has light tower power. And he's also someone who, to date, hasn't let his struggles at the plate affect him in the field...he's been one of the best defensive first basemen in the league so far.
The irrationality exhibited towards Chris Davis is exactly why teams don't want to rebuild...fans say they want to see young players play and are willing to put up with the struggles, but the reality is that, when a young player -- even one who has had some success at the major league level, like Davis has -- struggles, fans get impatient and pissy and are ready to move on and look at someone new.
So yeah, Davis is struggling. Through the first 7 games of the season, he has a.212/.284/.444 line, a 728 OPS and an 88 OPS+. He has to cut down on his Ks and hit for a higher average or else he's going to have little value.
And I could go drag out the stats of some other good players who are off to lousy starts, and beat everyone over the head with that.
But instead, I'll just mention that not long ago, there was another 23 year old first baseman who, in his first full season in the majors, put up a .236/.337/.371 line in the first 28 games of the season, good for just a 708 OPS and an OPS+ of around 75. And who folks complained was overrated, overhyped, and should maybe go back to the minors.
That was Mark Teixeira. And he turned out okay.
So let's put the torches and pitchforks down, and give it a little more time before we start calling for Chris Davis to be gone.
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Can we get Mike Maddux to talk to him?
"[Font} doesn't turn 19 until the end of May and his heater can already hit 99 on the gun. That's baseball porn." - Jason Parks
Davis just needs
to hit faster, like Harrison. Make Teagarden sit next to him on the plane.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
Maybe Teagarden should sit next to himself, too.
"That start was like somebody on a deathbed suddenly jumping up and doing the Lindy Hop, then speeding away on a pogo stick while playing the fiddle." - Telegraph
+1
Why is everyone ignoring this? Even at first, it is very possible to make yourself an every day player in the field with struggling offense.
not at 1B-SS or C yes.
Definiton of insanity-doing the same thing and expecting different results
"Introducing your 2009 Texas Rangers-Built for Insanity!"
yes you are.
Struggling yes, struggling to make contact, no.
Definiton of insanity-doing the same thing and expecting different results
"Introducing your 2009 Texas Rangers-Built for Insanity!"
No, you are wrong.
Would you like to do your own research, or do you need me to do it for you?
Davis is producing enough in the field right now to be solidly above replacement level and actually pretty close to average. You simplify things too much, I’ll bet.
You can keep your Vorp and WAR and whatever, thank you. I am more concerned with his future developmnt.
If he loses confidence, gets lost in his swing mechanics and approach, he could very well not become the hitter he is capable of being.
Definiton of insanity-doing the same thing and expecting different results
"Introducing your 2009 Texas Rangers-Built for Insanity!"
K, that's kind of unrelated.
You said first base can’t play good enough defense to belong in the every day line up with struggling offense. I said you’re wrong. That isn’t related to whether or not Davis would do well with some PAs in the minors.
This.
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008
We’ve concluded that this type of comment adds nothing.
Please refrain from posting this type of message
Speak for yourself, groucho.
"That start was like somebody on a deathbed suddenly jumping up and doing the Lindy Hop, then speeding away on a pogo stick while playing the fiddle." - Telegraph
+1
4/10/09 - Josh Hamilton's last walk.
"You know a pitching prospect isn't any good if John Daniels doesn't trade him away but keeps him insteaad." - http://crops.mlblogs.com/
"You probably can throw Neftali Feliz on that group of overblown Rangers pitching prospect failures." - http://crops.mlblogs.com/
Everyone is not ignoring Davis' defense
it has gotten regular mention lately from many posters here.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
I agree. Tonight was a tough loss,
and he was up in a high-leverage situation. What else would you expect?
I very rarely get upset by losses, excluding the obvious GDT over-reactions (which are fun)…but this loss really bothered me.
Eh, tomorrow is another day, and another game.
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008
Like I said at the end of the last GDT
These are the losses that eat at me, because we rallied just enough to tie, only to fail when we had the chance to pull ahead and then go on to lose because the pitching wasn’t completely perfect. Frustrating.
"That start was like somebody on a deathbed suddenly jumping up and doing the Lindy Hop, then speeding away on a pogo stick while playing the fiddle." - Telegraph
by LSJ on May 9, 2009 9:40 PM CDT up reply actions
with me it's mainly the strikeouts
that get to me. and ungodly amount of strikeouts. i complain and complain (probably more than anybody else here) but haven’t called for him to get sent down. i know he’s only 23 and he will get better, but i can still bitch and moan about his high strikeout totals.
Omar Vizquel: your starting shortstop for the 2009 AL all-star team.
yeah, it is ridiculous
you gotta make contact every now and then
If a woman has to choose between catching a fly ball and saving an infant's life, she will choose to save the infant's life without even considering if there are men on base. ~Dave Barry
Thank You.
Everyone is freaking out, and the kid is showing a willingness to change. His power is absurd and once it’s harnessed, he’ll be an All-Star.
Let’s also not overlook his glove, which is saving the Rangers runs.
I don't think there is anything wrong....
with possibly sending him down to work on some things without the pressure. If it is in his head, that might be the best thing for him. Lots of young players struggle and have to go back down to work it out.
Definiton of insanity-doing the same thing and expecting different results
"Introducing your 2009 Texas Rangers-Built for Insanity!"
I thought we'd played more than 7 games this season
but seriously, it’s not any of those numbers that you listed. It’s the strikeouts. It’s an exciting play when your pitcher strikes someone out and a beat your head against the wall play when your player strikes out.
About 2 runs a season.
That is the difference — all other things being equal — between striking out 50 times and striking out 200 times.
That said, they do have some usefulness in judging a player’s ability looking forward. An ability to make contact bodes better for maintaining production.
I realize that over the long term it's not much different statistically than grounding out
but it’s watching the actual dramatics of a strikeout that gets fans upset.
So when Matt Harrison was struggling
his being 23 had nothing to do with it, he was just another lefty with no out pitch.
When Davis is struggling and looks much uglier than Harrison ever did, “he’s also a guy who is a hard worker, who has shown a good approach and a willingness to make adjustments as he’s moved up”
And to be fair
I thought waiting through Harry’s rough patch was the right thing, and think so with Davis too. But I just wanted to point out the double standard…
When Harrison was struggling...
…he also had a much less impressive track record — both in the majors and in the minors.
And he was, thru the second inning of the Baltimore game, performing a hell of a lot worse than Davis has so far this year.
by Adam J. Morris on May 9, 2009 9:56 PM CDT up reply actions
3 starts?
Yeah, Harrison was awful in his first three starts. But it was pretty obvious from his successes and failures last season that he’d have great starts and awful starts mixed together as he was learning to pitch in the majros. Just like Davis’s 2008 suggested that he would have some great ABs and some awful ABs. And if you want to go by a players worst games, I’m pretty sure some of Davis’s ABs this year make Harrison’s bad performances look like Johan Santana.
And what is this “much less impressive track record” deal? Harrison was a pretty well regarded prospect in the Braves organization. #90 by Baseball America in 2007, solid numbers all the way through the minors. Yeah, he didn’t have Chris Davis’s great 2008. But he’s no slouch out there. He’s not John Koronka or Kason Gabbard.
Harrison isn’t a perfect pitcher, obviously. He has some significant developing to do. But Davis K’d 161 times to 46 BBs last year (majors & minors combined) He’s never been a perfect prospect either.
I had a very lengthy response....
…and my browser locked up. I need a new laptop.
I don’t feel like re-typing it, but I think I’ll do it as an actual blog post this coming week.
by Adam J. Morris on May 10, 2009 9:45 AM CDT up reply actions
Did my little comment
about possibly replacing Davis with Smoak at the ASB prompt this diatribe? I’m honored. I also said this back on April 11 which you mentioned in the next day’s AM thread. I am not ready to jump of fthe bandwagon. I am concerned about his lack of progress.
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
Just the straw
that broke the internet’s overreacting back is all.
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The book on him is out.
Hard inside, b/c he can’t catch up-then when he starts early looking in, soft stuff away.
Definiton of insanity-doing the same thing and expecting different results
"Introducing your 2009 Texas Rangers-Built for Insanity!"
Actually location
doesn’t really matter. He can’t catch up to the FB and he can’t recognize the breaking ball. He looks like he is completely guessing when he is at the plate.
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
and even if he guesses right
he is way off with his swing. His hits also either seem to be bloopers, or homeruns. everything else is a K.
today I thought he really had a chance to go a game without getting struck out. that turned out to be wrong.
If a woman has to choose between catching a fly ball and saving an infant's life, she will choose to save the infant's life without even considering if there are men on base. ~Dave Barry
You're surprised?
Many on here are overdemanding, live-by-the-minute knee-jerkers. Quick to praise, quick to criticize. It’s what many of us do, unfortunately. We’re myopic pricks.
I think he needs to work pitch recognition, as he’s striking out on terrible pitches and in counts where he shouldn’t expect to be getting a pitch to hit. His strikeout rate cannot stay anywhere close to what it is right now. Too many wasted outs.
Aikman and Bradshaw?
Please. They are in the same league as Trent Dilfer and Jim McMahon as QBs who were taken to the SB by great Defenses and great Running Games.
-DJCahill
agreed
And the place to work on that is in the minors, not ML level. He is becoming Dave Kingman-ish.
Definiton of insanity-doing the same thing and expecting different results
"Introducing your 2009 Texas Rangers-Built for Insanity!"
x
And the place to work on that is in the minors, not ML level.
Because you think that’s the best place for him developmentally and for his long term performance, or because you think the Rangers would be better off with Hank Blalock playing first base every day and Andruw Jones DHing every day?
by Adam J. Morris on May 9, 2009 9:55 PM CDT up reply actions
developmentally.
Definiton of insanity-doing the same thing and expecting different results
"Introducing your 2009 Texas Rangers-Built for Insanity!"
i think Davis can learn more at the Bigs
but he has to start improving. At least, start hitting the fastball. He is getting blown away by everything. Where is the best hitting coach in baseball now through this stretch???
If a woman has to choose between catching a fly ball and saving an infant's life, she will choose to save the infant's life without even considering if there are men on base. ~Dave Barry
I wish I could see some of his swings from side and back views.
I bet he probably needs to shorten it down some to gain some quickness. Don’t think he will lose any power.
Definiton of insanity-doing the same thing and expecting different results
"Introducing your 2009 Texas Rangers-Built for Insanity!"
The young man is struggling just to make contact.
At some point he is going to get down, begin to doubt everything he’s doing, lose confidence, basically lose his faith in his own ability.
Definiton of insanity-doing the same thing and expecting different results
"Introducing your 2009 Texas Rangers-Built for Insanity!"
That's a possibilty
but not every player will have a shattered confidence. It’s a player-by-player thing. If the Rangers know he’s a confident guy (and we know he has the ability to be successful, based on the end of last year), they may let him figure it out here. They probably know as good as anyone what he needs to turn the corner… either more time against ML pitching or in the minors. We’ll see what happens.
Aikman and Bradshaw?
Please. They are in the same league as Trent Dilfer and Jim McMahon as QBs who were taken to the SB by great Defenses and great Running Games.
-DJCahill
by SarasotaRanger on May 9, 2009 10:03 PM CDT up reply actions
Ive known chris a long time
And one thing he doesn’t lack is confidence. His confidence will never waiver. I’m sure of that.
I felt in the pre-season this place was WAY too high on Davis.
When Keith Law made his comments and everyone ripped him, I was pretty close to agreeing with him. I felt Davis’s plate approach meant being the all-world hitter people seemed to expect a little less than a forgone conclusion.
And now he’s struggling and it’s not surprising me, and yet I’m becoming one of the most positive people on his case right now. It is very, very important to our future that we give Davis a chance. Beyond that, he’s doing something that does surprise me: playing such stellar Pujolsian defense in the field that he’s not even hurting us right now by being in the line-up every day.
I get knee-jerks in the game day thread, but when you step back and look at all the data, Davis is just fine playing regularly for the big league team right now.
Yeah, I never understood
the KLaw hate. His comments seemed pretty much reasonable.
4/10/09 - Josh Hamilton's last walk.
"You know a pitching prospect isn't any good if John Daniels doesn't trade him away but keeps him insteaad." - http://crops.mlblogs.com/
"You probably can throw Neftali Feliz on that group of overblown Rangers pitching prospect failures." - http://crops.mlblogs.com/
I just hope
by the time davis and the rest of our offense gets going that the pitching is still doing good.
I'm just goofin' new boot goofin'
The GDTs are
completely unpalatable for me because of this type of nonsensical hysteria.
And, I’ve found that alot of people here like bright, shiny, new things. Andrus, Holland, and Smoak are their new favorites.
It’s the same old “DFA his ass”, “what have you done for me lately” crowd.
"A good start would be not giving up 900 runs again." -Jon Daniels
by Randy Richardson on May 9, 2009 10:06 PM CDT reply actions
Andrus, Holland
and later this year, when they go through rough patches, some will turn on them, too. It’s just a matter of time.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
Couldn't agree more.....
Haven’t been in a game day thread since late last year. Can’t stand them.
Man, this Grienke/Saunders matchup turned into a sweet pitchers duel
1-0 Angels in the top of the ninth with Grienke already completing what looks like the losing end of a 8 Inning shutout while Saunders is about to get the win
"The House That Ruth Built, 85 years old, goes out as The House That Hamilton Knocked Down"
i hate the angels
screw them
If a woman has to choose between catching a fly ball and saving an infant's life, she will choose to save the infant's life without even considering if there are men on base. ~Dave Barry
yep, if there was one team that could beat Grienke the way that he's pitching
it would have to be the Angels… F’em
"The House That Ruth Built, 85 years old, goes out as The House That Hamilton Knocked Down"
apples to apples
Teixeira games 81-108 of his career: .267/.348/.475
Davis: 212/.284/.444
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
yes
Comparing Teixeira’s first 28 games of his career to Davis’ first 28 this year is not an accurate comparison. What’s the problem with me pointing it out?
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
i think it is more accurate
because it compares the start of their first full season.
it is different starting the year in the Bigs vs. getting called up when you are already on fire in AAA.
If a woman has to choose between catching a fly ball and saving an infant's life, she will choose to save the infant's life without even considering if there are men on base. ~Dave Barry
Greetings from the back row of the Davis bandwagon
I’ve been sitting here for a while, and I can barely see AJM and his beasticon sticker all the way up front, but before you hastily jump off the end of the wagon, stop for a second and let’s talk about Chris Davis.
Chris Davis swings too much; Chris Davis doesn’t make any contact; Chris Davis is channeling spring-training Andruw Jones. These are all valid concerns, even going back to last year (when all the hitchhikers jumped on board). Last season, he was at the bottom of the league in both percentage of pitches swung at and contact made on those swings. Outside of Alfonso Soriano, there are not a whole lot of hitters that succeed with that kind of a swing profile. That’s why there are a lot more successful Thome-type hitters than Soriano types.
However, that doesn’t mean Chris Davis will be like this forever. He is 23, and it’s possible for him to make adjustments. So the hope is that he would be a bit more selective at the plate this season, and make better contact. So far, he appears to be accomplishing one of these two things.
Last season, Chris Davis swung at 37.3% of the pitches outside of the strike zone; this season, he has swung at 33.3% of bad pitches. Last season, Chris Davis swung at 72.5% of strikes; this season, he swung at 72% of them. He is now swinging at 50.3% of all pitches thrown at him, down from 54.3% last year. By this measure, he has been more selective this season than Josh Hamilton (66.4% pitches swung at), Marlon Byrd (57.6%), and Salty (51.5%), and barely more than Kinsler (50.2%). He has made great strides at this so far, a 4% drop is nothing to scoff at. Most of this drops in swings comes from pitches outside the zone – even better.
The second problem – contact – looks to have not gotten better, last year, Chris Davis made contact 68.1% of the time he swung. That’s Mark Reynolds territory. This season, he has gone where no man has gone before and made contact on 57.5% of the swings so far. Abysmal, right? Wait up a second. When swinging at pitches outside the zone, Chris Davis has actually improved his contact rate from last season (up from 48.3% to 54.2%). Heck, he is even better than Michael Young at this point for making contact at pitches outside the zone. The most confusing thing is that for pitches inside the strike zone, his contact rate plummeted from 79.1% last season to 59.5% so far. If you look at normal people, their contact rate for pitches inside the zone is about 15-20% better than contact rate for pitches outside the zone, because, they are normal. Everybody knows it’s a lot easier to hit things when it’s in the strike zone, it makes common sense. The fact that Davis is only barely better at making contact with pitches inside the zone than those outside is puzzling, and I think, frankly, not a true indication of his abilities. There is no logical reason that he would not be a lot better at hitting strikes than hitting balls. Even Vlad is a lot better at hitting strikes.
What about the argument that pitches are adjusting to him better? It’s true, pitcher are adjusting to him by throwing him fewer strikes this season (43.8% – down from 48.2% last season), but he has also made adjustment to swing at fewer pitches outside the zone and making better contact at them. So if anything, I am actually inclined to move up a little on the wagon based on what he has done so far. Let him play everyday, and revisit the numbers at the all star break, see if the regressions has taken its course. At that point, we’ll have a better idea if his new found plate discipline is here to stay, and if he really has a hole in his bat and can’t hit strikes. Meanwhile, stop jumping up and down the bandwagon, it makes me dizzy.
by Telegraph on May 9, 2009 10:38 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
We might be getting our stats from different sources
(mine come from StatCorner) but here are a couple more stats:
In-play contact (separated from fair): 43.6%, down from 2008’s 46.4%
Pitches taken for balls: 68.8%, down from 2008’s 71.6% ~ despite the increase in overall pitches taken.
I do agree with you about letting Davis play ~ but I’m not sure I’m as ready to talk about his “new-found plate discipline.”
my stats are from fangraphs, but it doesn't quite the work the way you argue
It’s true that the percentages (of all pitches that he takes) of balls that he takes is smaller this season. However, this stat is misleading, because it doesn’t take into account the ball/strike distribution of pitches thrown at him. For example…
Let’s say Player A takes 50% of his total pitches, and for the pitches that he take, 50% are strikes and 50% are balls. So if he takes 50 of 100 pitches, 25 of them will be balls. However, what about the pitches he swung at? The Take%, takeball%, and takestrike% does not account for that. So let’s say of the 50 pitches that he didn’t take (swung at), all of them were strikes. This means that he did not swing at a single ball that was thrown at him.
Meanwhile, Player B also takes 50% of his total pitches, and of the pitches that he takes, 50% are strikes and 50% balls. However, of the pitches he swung at, 50% were strikes and 50% are balls too. So the total number of balls out of the 100 pitches was 25 (that he took) + 25 (that he swung at) This means he swung at 25/50 = 50% of the balls thrown at him. A better measure of how often he swung at a ball is to directly find out how often he swung at a ball. The TkB% is not the inverse of that. It counts of all the pitches that he took, what percentage was a ball.
If I use data from statcorner to calculate something different
2008: 0.462*0.716 = 0.330 (percentage of all pitches taken * percentage of taken pitches that were balls)
2009: 0.496*0.688 = 0.341
This calculation gives that in 2008, of all pitches thrown at him, 33% of the time, the outcome is that he took it for a ball, this is 34% this year. So this metric says he improved (slightly) as well.
By the same token, the in play contact stat measure of all the times he made contact, what fraction of it was fair. It doesn’t say how often he made contact with a pitch that would be a ball or a strike.
At least this is how I think it works, correct me if mistaken.
No, you're right ~ I was trying to read StatCorner stats like FanGraphs Stats.
I apparently needed to be drinking more or less beer ~ not sure which.
I dont know if the Dallas area sports fan invented the bandwagon
but they sure as hell get a lot mileage out of it…
worst sports fans in america…
you heard it here first…
John Danks, is that you?
Or is it Nick Massett?
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
haha no im just fed up, sorry
i have never heard more whiny BS than today after the Mavs game. And I just started thinking about Dallas teams in general.
Cowboys: Tony Romo is a perfect example…people went nuts at the start of his career now i hear fans wishing they wouldve traded for matt cassel
Mavs: Where were all these $30,000 millionaires in the 90’s? Ohh at the Cowboys games, thats right.
I am scared these idiots will be flocking to the rbia now that the little mavs season is done
it's some fucked up motion.
I'm just goofin' new boot goofin'
by iorange555 on May 9, 2009 11:05 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Guh. I hate that song.
"That start was like somebody on a deathbed suddenly jumping up and doing the Lindy Hop, then speeding away on a pogo stick while playing the fiddle." - Telegraph
just my opinion and i am knee jerking a bit..
but can you not agree about how quickly fans here jump on and off the bandwagon?
ever lived....
anywhere else? I have. Fans are the same everywhere.
This is just like when people
say “Texas has the craziest weather!” or “Don’t like the weather in Texas? Just wait 10 minutes”. People EVERYWHERE say that about their weather.
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mabye, but
get 10 minutes in from the coast and I’ll bet they’re saying it there, too.
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well
I complain about the weather here, but not because it is crazy. It’s just boring.
I’d say that most places in California have boring weather. It isn’t the same everywhere, but it rarely changes every ten minutes like in Texas.
Texas in summer
I think all the weather people could take 3 month vacations and just put up partly cloudy, 98 every 5 day forecast.
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ironically
fans in San Diego don’t jump on and off their bandwagon. They just sit there with la-la grins on their faces and daydream about Khalil Greene.
Not the first time i've heard that
All the early and long term success the cowboys had in the 60s,70s and even early 80s spoiled people. And when the cowboys sucked in the mid-late 80s they had a hard time even selling enough tickets to prevent a tv blackout.
"I'm against picketing, but I don't know how to show it." - Mitch Hedberg
You heard it here first?
Sure, right, you’re the very first person to accuse a team’s fans of bandwagoniness. Right.
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Could not be a more false statement.
Evidently you hae never been to Miami or Atlanta… or if you have, you never attended a sporting event.
Aikman and Bradshaw?
Please. They are in the same league as Trent Dilfer and Jim McMahon as QBs who were taken to the SB by great Defenses and great Running Games.
-DJCahill
by SarasotaRanger on May 10, 2009 9:10 AM CDT up reply actions
add Houston
After the show I want Greg Oden to tuck us both in and tell us stories about the old days. - Will Ferrell
What I'm wondering
How many of the people who are calling for Davis to be sent down or who are starting to wait for Smoak to come save the day feel that way by how dominated Davis was in the 9th inning today? That was an AB that had no good ending when he came up to the plate. Davis is struggling now, Jenks was perfect tonight. Davis had to come into the game without seeing any live pitching and while struggling, was supposed to catch up to 3 98/99 mph fastballs on the inside of the strike zone. I can’t blame Wash too much for using Davis there, but it wasn’t putting him a situation to succeed.
And Davis recently is reminding me of how Salty looked a couple of weeks ago or so. That is when Salty was struggling with the bat and striking out a lot, but he was making some decent contact and was starting to work the counts more. The ball will start finding more holes soon and Davis will catch back up with the fastball and then everyone will feel stupid that they were hoping for Smoak soon.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
Even if Davis starts hitting like 2008
I’m hoping Smoak’s ready soon. That’s the best-case scenario, isn’t it?
I don't want him to be up anytime soon though
Yeah, its better for him to be ready tomorrow, but I don’t want him as a part of the 25 or 40 man roster until 2 weeks into next April.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
Service time and team needs
I don’t think this team needs more offense (recent games aside) and there is about no way that Smoak’s glove is an improvement over Davis’ at first. So since this team doesn’t have a need for Smoak right now, I don’t want to bring him up early. I am fine with Blalock at DH most of the time with the occasional Jones sighting and Davis handling 1B. When they’re gone after this season, then Smoak can come up a couple of weeks into April and the Rangers can control him for the next 7 seasons.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
If we're talking perfect worlds
I’d rather see Blalock and Jones dealt at the deadline and Smoak ready for a call up if he’s ready. I have very little desire to see Blalock play the rest of this season in a Rangers uniform. Maybe Jones can be a useful piece in the event of a playoff race, but if Smoak’s bat proves too good for the farm by the break, it won’t hurt my feelings to see him join the club at some point this season ~ even if that’s just September.
I'm just not liking the chances of a good return for either of those players
Not ruling it out, but I’m just not planning on that to happen. I do like Blalock’s chances at being at least a Type B FA though and given his age and potential, he’ll be able to get a multiyear contract from someone and won’t accept arbitration. So I’d rather just ride those 2 out for the potential of a playoff push.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
I don't think the
Rangers will give Blalock the opportunity to decline arbitration.
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
If bradley was a type B
I don’t think there is any way Blalock is close.
Bradley would have been a Type A
if the team ever put him on the DL.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
-The Outlaw
The Rangers
would be crazy to offer Blalock Arb. He’d probably just take it.
4/10/09 - Josh Hamilton's last walk.
"You know a pitching prospect isn't any good if John Daniels doesn't trade him away but keeps him insteaad." - http://crops.mlblogs.com/
"You probably can throw Neftali Feliz on that group of overblown Rangers pitching prospect failures." - http://crops.mlblogs.com/
Yes, freaking thank you.
This board’s motto needs to be:
Relax.
Seriously, y’all are gonna hurt your knees jerking them around like you tend to.
Davis will be fine.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
You want the mustache on or off? ... ... ... Too bad.
He's no Richie Sexson
The most Sexson EVER K’d was 178 times in 598 AB ’s. Davis is on pace for 282. Why is still the starting 1B ? Contact is of utmost importance playing 81 games in the wind tunnel. Smoak is better right now.
Fun Davis K stat
don’t know if this has been mentioned, but he’s K’d in all but 2 of his games this year
Just fanning the fire :)
Strikeouts
I seriously doubt he strikes out 282 times, and im sure players have been on that kind of pace before.
Look at ryan howard, 2 straight seasons of 199k’s… think he needs to work it out in aaa?
He’s a power hitter, he’s going to strike out and hes going to hit some homeruns. Expecting him to hit 300 is crazy
"I'm against picketing, but I don't know how to show it." - Mitch Hedberg
To be fair
People always bring up the “Ryan Howard strikes out a lot!” or Adam Dunn K’s just as much arguments. The problem is that there are two classes of home run hitters – the Ryan Howard/Adam Dunn model, and the Dave Kingman/Pete Incaviglia model.
There is a very important detail that separates Ryan Howard and Adam Dunn from the Pete Incaviglia’s and Rob Deer’s and Dave Kingman’s. And that is the walk. Really, I could care less if someone strikes out 200 times in a season if they walk 100 times to go along with it.
Chris Davis will never be a valuable baseball player unless he can walk 80-90 times a year or cut his K’s in half. That is not just a minor flaw, that is a major adjustment that has to be made. I want Davis to be in the Ryan Howard category and not the Incaviglia category.
Davis actually
has a decent walk ratio this year.
8 walks in 110 PA. That ain’t bad. That boosts his OBP by .072 over his average.
His problem is that is batting average is dogcrap right now, but that is prone to slumps.
4/10/09 - Josh Hamilton's last walk.
"You know a pitching prospect isn't any good if John Daniels doesn't trade him away but keeps him insteaad." - http://crops.mlblogs.com/
"You probably can throw Neftali Feliz on that group of overblown Rangers pitching prospect failures." - http://crops.mlblogs.com/
His batting average is dogcrap...
…because his K rate is way to high.
If his K rate drops to an acceptable rate, his average rises 50 points, his OBP goes up 50 points, his slugging goes up 50-60 points, and everyone is satisfied, for the time being, anyway.
by Adam J. Morris on May 10, 2009 11:35 AM CDT up reply actions
That's kind of my point though
If you are a guy who strikes out a lot, the batting average is likely going to be dogcrap and stay dogcrap. If you K in 1/3rd your ABs, you basically need a .417 BABIP to get up to a .350 OBP (with your +.072 boost from walks). Davis isn’t that good. If Davis can walk a lot more, I don’t care if he K’s 200 times a year. But he’s not ever going to have a high enough batting average to make his OBP reasonable with that K/BB ratio.
If he doesn’t cut back on K’s or increase his BB’s, he’ll never be the player we all think he can be. I don’t think you can fix either of those problems in AAA, so Wash should keep using him like he’s using him (though I’d probably pinch hit for him in close games in the 9th inning).
well, if he's not striking out
then he’s putting the ball in play, and I’d figure that at least 25-30% of the balls he puts in play would fall for hits, right?
Doctor please. Some more of these.
yeah
The problem with K’s is that they are practically (barring the K/wild pitch combo) guaranteed outs. Ground balls can find holes. Fly balls can land in the gaps. Popups can be Texas Leaguers. Line drives can miss guys. K’s are K’s.
Now, his swing and approach may cause lots of Ks, but it gets him lots of power too. So maybe he shouldn’t try to cut his K’s in half. But then he needs to become more patient, ala Adam Dunn, and use the walk as the default option.
hey kinsler5
kinsler has horrible road splits now and for his career, so you think he sucks right?
the preceding post was a great success.
Ummm.. okay
I understand that some (I said some, those of you know who you are, cuz you’re about to get all defensive) of you think baseball is soooo easy to play, so let’s see you pick up a bat and get out there and do better. I mean really, I am so tired of this BS and nitpicking, it’s giving me a headache. Here’s an idea, stop bashing him and give him time to find his groove. As far as i’ve seen, he is a hell of a defensive first baseman, and he’s been getting quite a few hits, so far as I have seen. I mean seriously, Hamilton’s season hasn’t started so great, and several of our other power hitters have been having some rough patches. Ya’’ll gonna start bashing them too?
one of the hardest things to do
is hit a round ball with a round bat.
"I'm against picketing, but I don't know how to show it." - Mitch Hedberg
I do agree...in a way
that said, how long do you give him
at what point is this no longer acceptable, this is no longer a 2 or 3 weeks slump
at some point you just cant have a 1st baseman hitting .220 with that many ks
hell, i bet broussard had better numbers and people wanted to tar and feather him
he’s young and you definitely need to give him time to show what he can do…but you also have to analyze his actual performance at some point
Not entirely sure.
You give him at least as long until he’s a liability to the team and he’s not yet (pariticularly, as mentioned by many before this, becuase of his glove). Or until there’s a better option to start, and right now there probably isn’t one. Blalock maybe, but I’d rather have Davis playing every day the way he is now than Blalock in the field.
And if he belongs in the starting line up from a competing standup, then you don’t send him down until AAA at bats would be more helpful for his development than Major League at bats, and I don’t pretend to know if that is or is not true for Davis right now. I’ll let the team decide that and hope they’re right when they do.
Holy hell.
hell, i bet broussard had better numbers and people wanted to tar and feather him
Ben Broussard hit .159/.225/.268 in his 89 PA’s in a Ranger uniform. That’s an OPS+ of 31, and a wOBA of .219. Words cannot express how horrible Ben Broussard was last year – because on top of the black hole of suck that he was at the plate, he also performed like a drunken one-eyed walrus at first base. I don’t really have anything to compare that to, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Ben Broussard’s stint in a Ranger uniform ranks among the worst in team history.
Chris Davis may be hitting .210/.282/.440, But he is still an infinity better than Ben Broussard. His wOBA of .311 is almost 100 points higher, and his OPS+ is currently listed at 88 (BR is a game behind, but his one AB last night isn’t going to make much of a difference, if any). If you wanna go by plain ‘ol OPS, Chris’s .722 is 229 points higher than Ben Broussard’s .493.
Bottom line is you sir, need to apologize to Chris Davis and the rest of humanity for even entertaining the possibility that he could ever be as bad as Ben Broussard.
"That start was like somebody on a deathbed suddenly jumping up and doing the Lindy Hop, then speeding away on a pogo stick while playing the fiddle." - Telegraph
by LSJ on May 10, 2009 6:12 AM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
Heh...
Good god no wonder i purged the memory of Broussard from my mind
my apologies Chris
doesnt change the general idea of my post, but i would like to reiterate that i do not think he should be sent down at all at this time…
but i also think we have to be realistic about the fact that he absolutely has to improve at this point or you must replace him if you want to be a playoff team
teams with guys hitting under .250 at 1st dont make the playoffs
Playoffs are fine and dandy
But I don’t think this team is at the point where you start shoveling promising young guys off to the minors in an effort to make a run at the postseason. Davis doesn’t really have anything left to prove in the minors, and I don’t really see how his learning to hit tough pitches is going to be helped if he’s sent down to a place where he’s going to see fewer of them – unless you want to seriously tinker with his swing mechanics I think you might as well let him take his lumps and try to find his batting eye again in the majors.
Maybe if he goes the Daric Barton route and his OPS is still 720 or worse by late July/August then sending him down will have to be considered, but until then I think we’ve got to ride it out.
"That start was like somebody on a deathbed suddenly jumping up and doing the Lindy Hop, then speeding away on a pogo stick while playing the fiddle." - Telegraph
The Phillies won the World Series with a 1B hitting .251.
The White Sox first baseman hit .240.
That’s just 2008, but just saying. . .
Rec'd
Aikman and Bradshaw?
Please. They are in the same league as Trent Dilfer and Jim McMahon as QBs who were taken to the SB by great Defenses and great Running Games.
-DJCahill
by SarasotaRanger on May 10, 2009 9:12 AM CDT up reply actions
psshhh.
Smoak.
"if my kid said 'uhh' that much, i would say, Hey! ... stop saying 'uhh' that much..." - dennis miller
Wierd
It’s almost like this is an internet message board or something with all the kneejerking. Prediction: it will now become quite popular to defend Davis and say he just needs more time and when he starts hitting better many will suddenly claim to have been behind him all along.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
What if we're in contention in August and he's where he is now, do you stay with him?
Y’all chew on this. I’m off to church.
II Cor. 4:17-18
I'll chew on it when they're in contention in August.
Aikman and Bradshaw?
Please. They are in the same league as Trent Dilfer and Jim McMahon as QBs who were taken to the SB by great Defenses and great Running Games.
-DJCahill
by SarasotaRanger on May 10, 2009 9:13 AM CDT up reply actions
I'll chew on some bacon.....mmm.
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008
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