Comparing the 2005 and 2009 Rangers

by Michael Cave on Jun 1, 2009 2:06 PM CDT

There has been a lot of talk about the 2005 Rangers 30-20 start lately. The 2009 Rangers have an identical record after 50 games. The 2005 Rangers finished at 79-83 with a pythag W-L of 82-80. Obviously, everyone thinks that this iteration of Rangers baseball is special but there still has to be some fear that they will end up as another disappointment. The 2005 Rangers (18-7) actually had a better winning percentage in May than the 09 Rangers (20-10). Here are some numbers:

The 2005 Rangers:

The 2005 Rangers sported an OPS of .861 in May along with a .305 BABIP. That OPS was the best in the AL while the BABIP placed them 3rd in the AL. The had an ISO of .230 which was easily the best in the league. The pitchers for the 05 Rangers fared pretty well in retrospect for this month. They had an ERA of 3.51 which was good enough for 5th in the AL. Their FIP was 3.80 which was third in the league and BABIP of .297 which placed them 11th in the AL. This is where the wheels kind of fell off for the 05 Rangers. I could not find any site that could just single out May so I will have to work off of full season numbers for each team. The Rangers had a total UZR of -36.6 and a UZR/150 of -4.5 thanks in large part to terrible defensive play at SS (young), 3B (blalock), and 2B (Soriano).

The 2009 Rangers:

This year's Rangers posted an OPS of .816 which was good for 4th in the AL despite the recent apparent struggles by the offense. The BABIP that was posted stood at .313 which was good for 5th in the AL. The Rangers ended up tying for the AL lead in ERA with a 3.57 mark. Their FIP was 4.47 which placed them 9th in the AL. BABIP was .272 which was best in the AL. Fielding is where the 2009 Rangers are really excelling. Right now they have a UZR of 22.7 and a UZR/150 of 8.4. Both of those are best in the AL . This is due in large part to excellent defense in CF, RF, 2B, 1B and SS.

Conclusion:

I am just learning all of these metrics and find them very enjoyable. Im sure many of you will come to much more intellectual conclusions than I can muster at this point in my sabermetrics career. J. I think the general consensus amongst smart individuals that the reason the Rangers are currently enjoying this much success is due to the fielding is right on the mark. Their offense was not too bad in May however watching them you can see there are holes. The pitching may have been a bit lucky with their BABIP however im sure some of this can be contributed to an improvement in defense. The 2005 Rangers OPS for the year ended up being .798 so obviously there was some regression. Additionally, the team ERA of that team finished up at 4.97. Their BABIP for the season was .314. I really don't think that this years Rangers will end like the 2005 version because of the aforementioned fielding prowess. Hitting can slump, Pitching can slump but to me I have always thought that fielding is the most immune to slumping so to speak. Time will tell but I really think this team's success will not be short lived. I am currently working on a position by position analysis of the two clubs as well.

Tweet Comment 16 comments | 3 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

Nice brief analysis

As you mention, I think the main reason for optimism is that this team has been successful despite its offense, not because of it. Since I think this team should be a better offensive club than it has been to date, there is a clear area where we can expect to see some improvement to offset possible regression somewhere else.

I have an irrational hatred of Chris Davis because his Ks are way too ugly and irrational liking of Matt Harrison because he's a lefty - deal with it.

by JBImaknee on Jun 1, 2009 2:19 PM CDT reply actions

Actually

because our BABIP is 5th highest, our offense may be overachieving so far.

I think one of the biggest differences from a playoff standpoint, is that I think the AL West is significantly weaker this year.

"Guillermo Moscoso despite his stunning game yesterday, is not a legit prospect. He is simply too old, too skinny, too weak, and lacks the fastball to make it at the professional level. ." - crops.mlblogs.com

by DJCahill on Jun 1, 2009 2:28 PM CDT up reply actions

I think the AL West is significantly weaker this year.

Be careful out there on that limb.

by octoberty on Jun 1, 2009 2:55 PM CDT up reply actions

I agree

Some guys have unusually high BABiP although guys like Hamilton are a bit low. But now we’re back to the freakishly low OBP – 10th among the AL. They do something about that and the possible dip in BABiP is evened out.

What’s also interesting are some of the pitching numbers.
First in the AL in complete games. Maybe not keep that up but starters are going deep.
Last in in the AL in Ks – not missing bats so they are really trusting the D. Good and bad at the same time.
First in saves. Winning close ones but that probably can’t continue.

Remember Red, hope is a good thing. Maybe the best of things. And no good thing ever dies.

by WyoRanger on Jun 2, 2009 3:53 PM CDT up reply actions

The West is winnable.

The biggest difference to me between 2005 and 2009 is that there were two teams better than the Rangers in the same division in 2005 and that doesn’t appear to be the case this year.

We also should not assume that a team with a lot of prospects on the way will a make a smooth steady climb in win totals from year to year. Young players are unpredictable (er, Davis and Andrus, hello) and the team might turn out better this year than in 2010 even though we’ve all kind of pegged next year as the year they should start contending. We all “knew” Detroit was going to be monstrous after their 2006 WS appearance and that pitching staff, right?

The team should do anything reasonable to win this year, which probably means the clock is ticking for Chris Davis.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Jun 1, 2009 2:57 PM CDT reply actions

I agree

the 2010 agree doesn’t work for me because we would be counting solely on young pitching, much like the A’s this year. in ‘10, we’ve pegged Holland and Feliz as aces, but it takes time for pitchers to adjust to the big leagues and to reach their full potential.

I think this team should make a trade to bring in a veteran bullpen piece. I don’t foresee that being too expensive as far as prospects. As far as a starter goes, that trade depends on the growth of Feliz and the health and possible signing of Sheets.

A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.

by NothinG on Jun 1, 2009 3:22 PM CDT up reply actions

it's like

the two guys running from a bear. One asked the other if he thought they could outrun the bear, to which he replied, I don’t have to outrun the bear, I just have to outrun you. We don’t have to beat the Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers, etc. We just have to outlast the Angels, who almost got swept by Seattle, and possibly we have some worries with Seattle but probably not Oakland. That looks more doable than it has in several years.

by walrus52 on Jun 1, 2009 3:52 PM CDT reply actions

We have to beat the Yankees, Redsox, Tigers eventually

Even if we win the West, if we get swept out of the playoffs in the first round again, I’ll be depressed all winter. Winning the West is not enough.

by NorCalRangersFan on Jun 1, 2009 4:00 PM CDT up reply actions

Then prepare for depression.

Me, I’ll be happy just to be back in the playoffs.

by DJCahill on Jun 1, 2009 4:03 PM CDT up reply actions

I've been a Rangers fan for almost 30 years

I’m used to depression. I’m used to waiting for next year.

30 years?! Damn, I’ve gotten old…

by NorCalRangersFan on Jun 1, 2009 4:19 PM CDT up reply actions

Well,

this team looks like it can kick the mutts in baseball, and will lose to good teams. That oughta be enough to go to the playoffs to be one and done.

by DJCahill on Jun 1, 2009 4:49 PM CDT up reply actions

absolutely

Just playing meaningful games in a pennant race would be exciting. Playoffs would be outstanding.

"He's old school in that he give up his groin like that. It hurt me when he do that" -- Worsh on Chris Davis' stretch at first base to end the game vs. the Angels on 5/16

by tricer on Jun 1, 2009 8:44 PM CDT up reply actions

Wrong...

The Rangers haven’t won the West in a decade. They are a year ahead of where I thought they would be right now. I would be ecstatic if the Rangers won the AL West. Anything on top of that is just gravy in my eyes.

"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates

by slc ranger on Jun 1, 2009 4:07 PM CDT up reply actions