Joe Posnanski and Bill James on Nolan Ryan and pitch counts

by Adam J. Morris on Jun 16, 2009 12:00 PM CDT

Joe Posnanski has a story up at SI, which is basically a discussion with Bill James about Nolan Ryan's implementation of changes in regards to theories of pitch counts.

James is more favorable than one would expect...the sense that comes across is that teams have gone too far in the direction of being over-protective, with James expounding on more reasonable threshholds that should be set instead of the 100 pitch barrier.

An interesting read, well worth checking out...

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Maybe I'm just in a bad mood

but I’m already tired of all the pitch count talk. Nolan Ryan, pitchers’ babied, too specialized, pendulum swinging, etc. etc. etc.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Jun 16, 2009 12:12 PM CDT reply actions

+1

If you can't watch Holland and see that he's going to be awesome, you probably shouldn’t be watching baseball. - Section 339

Hello Win Column

by LSJ on Jun 16, 2009 12:17 PM CDT up reply actions

ditto

i’m so over it.

Man, I love winning! You know? It's like better than losing!

by SteveP on Jun 16, 2009 1:33 PM CDT up reply actions

New theory...

The Rangers and Nolan knew talking all spring about a new approach for the pitchers would drum up some publicity for his decade long under-achieving media-starved franchise.

Early returns: Success.

I promise this link is directed to the theme to Night Court. I promise.

by ghostofErikThompson on Jun 16, 2009 2:03 PM CDT up reply actions

I've honestly had thoughts along those lines for a while now.

"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008

by Rodney on Jun 16, 2009 2:34 PM CDT up reply actions

So, Mr. Stay Puft...

25 years ago Ghostbusters was released. Doing anything special? Getting the vidya game? Watching 1 & 2 in succession? Drinking some Hi-C – Ecto Coolers?

I am doing all of the above.

I promise this link is directed to the theme to Night Court. I promise.

by ghostofErikThompson on Jun 16, 2009 2:46 PM CDT up reply actions

All of the above would be the preferred choice, good sir.

However, I will have to await the PC version of said game, and substitute vodka for the Ectoplasm.

Now, the real question; Red or Purple Hi-C?

"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008

by Rodney on Jun 16, 2009 3:03 PM CDT up reply actions

Some GDT when I'm good and toasted...

I’ll bore/disgust everyone with my Sigourney Weaver/gatekeeper/keymaster fantasy…

The Texas Rangers have been synonymous with explosive firepower ever since they emptied 130 rounds into Bonnie Parker and Clyde Barrow in 1934. - Alyssa Milano

by bking on Jun 16, 2009 3:05 PM CDT up reply actions

Shoutin' Orange Tangergreen

When the Ecto Cooler was replaced with Shoutin’ Orange Tangergreen, a little part of me died.

I promise this link is directed to the theme to Night Court. I promise.

by ghostofErikThompson on Jun 16, 2009 3:08 PM CDT up reply actions

Good read. It's all about money and the mind.

Money- too much invested to take any perceived risks. Sign of the times.
Mind- If your lifting weights and tell yourself your doing a set of 10, the tenth one can be difficult. If you told yourself 12, the tenth wouldn’t be so difficult.

"I saw your act, just didn't make it for me. Just a lot of fluff."

by scoop16 on Jun 16, 2009 12:17 PM CDT reply actions

you know

this is getting retarded. All this talk of Nolan Ryan and his increased pitch counts really hasn’t come into play that much (thankfully) this season. Are pitchers are indeed going deeper into games, but that is due mainly to the terrific defense we’ve had this year, not increased pitch counts. Millwood has been pushed much more than he has since being a Ranger, but other than that it doesn’t seem like any of our other starters are being “pushed” any more than I’ve seen with other teams. In fact, we’ve taken extra precautions to ensure health of our pitchers, such as when BMac threw about 125 pitches for the complete game shutout. His next start, we took him out after 80-85 pitches I believe. All this publicity simply doesn’t make sense to me. I realize this whole process he has in mind can’t be implemented right away, but I question if 3 years from now our organization is any different from other clubs as far as our pitch counts.

by erikj07 on Jun 16, 2009 12:19 PM CDT reply actions

I do believe in Nolan's philosophy

but I don’t think the effects will be completely realized until the talent level of the SPs increases.

Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
Mitch Moreland - 2009 Rangers Minor League POY

by RangerMad on Jun 16, 2009 12:21 PM CDT reply actions

I'd love to hear thoughts from biomechanical experts about pitch counts.

I think the article brings up a decent point that 100 pitches seems rather arbitrary, but the other numbers they toss around (160 for “mature pitchers”? How do you define a mature pitcher?) seem absurd to me.

by jwiscarson on Jun 16, 2009 12:21 PM CDT reply actions

Me too

I put a lot of stock in what experts in physiology have researched about things like repetitive stress and consequential fatigue. And realize that it is an immature science in some ways. The one thing I would buy without question is Maddux’s stance on individuals being different. The offshoot of which is that the point where damage can occur, or ineffectiveness sets in, varies pitcher to pitcher. No universal template, and probably not even a static guideline for such things as hours throwing between starts, and pitch counts in game environments. Something to follow, for sure.

"He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts... for support rather than illumination." - Andrew Lang (1844-1912) also -

"Telephone, n. An invention of the devil which abrogates some of the advantages of making a disagreeable person keep his distance."
~Ambrose Bierce

by Ed Coffin on Jun 16, 2009 12:31 PM CDT up reply actions

Individuals

are different in every profession, and I’m very glad the Rangers seem to be treating their pitchers – from Arlington to the DR – as individuals instead going by some vague rules. I’m very encouraged by the delicate handling of innings totals in the lower minors.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Jun 16, 2009 12:34 PM CDT up reply actions

With the millions of $$$ invested in players

I would think that teams would be proactive in thier physical/medical treatment of players, especially pitchers. Yearly MRIs on pitchers that you have a significant investment to find potential/early problems so that a it can be treated before symptoms arise.

Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
Mitch Moreland - 2009 Rangers Minor League POY

by RangerMad on Jun 16, 2009 12:40 PM CDT up reply actions

Agreed.

Not that we’re necessarily privy to the medical procedures the Rangers use in the minors, but you’d think that preventative measures would be the order of the day considering how much we spend in the draft and LA.

I have to wonder if this sort of stuff isn’t the next undervalued point of research. Overpay team doctors and physical therapists and refine workouts/rehab methods.

by jwiscarson on Jun 16, 2009 1:22 PM CDT up reply actions

Isn't BOS doing something like that already?

"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008

by Rodney on Jun 16, 2009 1:24 PM CDT up reply actions

I believe so.

I recall that they are renowned for their rehab program.

¡Prefiero morir de pie que vivir siempre arrodillado!

"Anyone who hangs themself during autoerotic asphyxiation is free game." - Curmudgeon

Colloquially, a person engaging in the activity is sometimes called a gasper.

by inactive lsb user on Jun 16, 2009 1:35 PM CDT up reply actions

Well OK I'll delete mine

"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan

by Dirk Diggler on Jun 16, 2009 12:23 PM CDT reply actions

He's such a content-thief...

"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008

by Rodney on Jun 16, 2009 1:05 PM CDT up reply actions

That's called "aggregating" on the interweb....

Apparently, online stealing died when Napster was born. HTH

The Texas Rangers have been synonymous with explosive firepower ever since they emptied 130 rounds into Bonnie Parker and Clyde Barrow in 1934. - Alyssa Milano

by bking on Jun 16, 2009 1:19 PM CDT up reply actions

The 100 pitch count

as a cutoff point to prevent injury or ineffectiveness is arbitrary and stands with little or no empirical support. This type of restriction should be highly individualized for each pitcher. It seems reasonable that the limit would tend to be closer to 100 than 160, but it only seems that way without much proof.
The major point is that money is the driving force not competitiveness. So this is much more of a bean counter thing than an athletic thing. So, short of Dusty Baker type abuse, those complaining too much about exceeding pitch counts are making an accountant’s argument.

by mcgee48c on Jun 16, 2009 1:34 PM CDT reply actions

That's probably correct..

I bet some graph somewhere simply showed that, for a number of different variables, the +/- threshold was somewhere around 100. That, or they just had the graph scaled by 10’s. :-)

The Texas Rangers have been synonymous with explosive firepower ever since they emptied 130 rounds into Bonnie Parker and Clyde Barrow in 1934. - Alyssa Milano

by bking on Jun 16, 2009 1:41 PM CDT up reply actions

In college

the pitching coach that i worked with on the side was more concerned about mechanical breakdowns than anything else. He believed that if movement was executed properly then a pitcher could go beyond 100 pitches. He also believed (and i do as well) that it is such a function of individuality that a number cannot be placed on it. There were times when i threw 80 high intensity pitches in a game and i was ready to go out because i was done. There was also a time when i threw 143 against a rival in an extra inning game and felt fine.

I do like that this seems to be a bottom up undertaking. Increase workout regimens for pitchers to be ready for something like this. You would think that with all of the technology and research that we have available we would be able to construct programs for each pitcher individual that would allow them to push the limits a bit more.

by Michael Cave on Jun 16, 2009 1:46 PM CDT reply actions

That seems to be Maddux & Ryan's POV too.

A number doesn’t tell you when a pitcher is worn out/tired/gassed, but you can see it by the fact that his stuff is gone. Heck, I can see that sometimes, and I am in no way a professional.

"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008

by Rodney on Jun 16, 2009 1:55 PM CDT up reply actions

I obviously agree

The most successful pitcher on our staff this year (millwood) has really taken to this. He seems to embrace the idea that he is going to be in there for 7 innings at least.

Yeah and the guy that i worked with on the side was Ray Burris so he definitely had that 70s pitching philosophy ha.

by Michael Cave on Jun 16, 2009 2:25 PM CDT up reply actions

I could've sworn I read this article

a month or two ago…by somebody else.

Oh – it should also be noted that I also didn’t read the article, just AJM’s overview

"Hang-Dai, Wu...Hang-Fu$&ing-Dai"

by Walter Sobchak on Jun 16, 2009 1:47 PM CDT reply actions

Good read

Despite it being talked about a lot, here and around the Rangers organization, it’s good to see that other baseball people like the idea of what Ryan’s trying to do. Granted, a lot of “baseball” people are idiots, but I happen to agree here so that’s what I’m going with.

by Big50 on Jun 16, 2009 1:48 PM CDT reply actions