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Evan Grant on not bunting in the 9th

Texas Rangers' Marlon Byrd is congratulated after scoring against the Oakland Athletics in the fourth inning of a baseball game Wednesday, May 6, 2009, in Oakland, Calif. (AP Photo/Ben Margot)

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

6 months ago: Texas Rangers' Marlon Byrd is congratulated after scoring against the Oakland Athletics in the fourth inning of a baseball game Wednesday, May 6, 2009, in Oakland, Calif. (AP Photo/Ben Margot)

Evan Grant has a story up on Inside Corner about last night's game, with some thoughts at length about how the 9th inning played out, along with discussing some other items.

Grant -- like a lot of folks here -- is critical of Ron Washington for not doing something after Marlon Byrd doubled in the 9th to move Byrd over to third base.  The consensus from reading the comments is that the majority of folks here think that Byrd should have been bunted over.

I disagree. 

You bunt in that situation so that you can score on an out and not necessarily a hit...however, you only have one out to score the runner from third.  The question becomes, are you more likely to get a hit (or do something to get the runner home) from second base with one of the two guys who are coming up, or are you more likely to 1) get the bunt down successfully, and 2) get the runner home with an out.

Obviously, you aren't going to have Chris Davis bunt.  Your bench consists of Elvis Andrus, Brandon Boggs, Taylor Teagarden, and Andruw Jones, so presumably, if you are going to bunt, you are going to send Andrus up there to do it.

Now...what are the chances that Andrus successfully gets down a bunt and moves the runner over?  60%?  75%?  I can't imagine it is any higher than 75%, and even that may be on the high side.

And Andrus, as you saw from the chart below, has been terrible this month, so if he gets two strikes on him and has to hit away, the chances of him getting a hit in that situation probably aren't any better than the chances of Davis getting a hit. 

Then you've got Jarrod Saltalamacchia coming up after Davis or Andrus, whomever you hit.  Let's assume you get the bunt down and advance Byrd to third base...you still have to get him home.  And for the purposes of our discussion, we are looking at just getting him home with an out, because while a hit doesn't get the runner home from second guaranteed, it is a likely outcome.

Salty, though, strikes out a ton.  He's struck out in over a third of his plate appearances, and of his 131 ABs that have resulted in something other than a hit, 67 of them -- over half -- have ended in a K.

63% of Salty's ABs end in a hit or a K.  Bunting the runner over doesn't help you in either of those outcomes.  And while the assumption is that with a runner on third, any ball in play will score the runner, a pop-up is useless, and a grounder is a dicey proposition.

I think the chances of Chris Davis -- or Andruw Jones, or Brandon Boggs, or Elvis Andrus, if you want to hit for Davis -- either getting a hit or getting the runner over to third with an out are greater than the chances of Salty getting the runner home from third base on an out. 

If you've got a guy coming up who puts the ball in play a ton, it might make sense to bunt Byrd over to third in that situation.  But it doesn't make sense to bunt a runner over for a guy who strikes out in over a third of his PAs and in over half of the outs he makes. 

And thus, I think Ron Washington made the right call in not bunting.

0 recs  |  Comment 112 comments |

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Your argument won me over

Man, it sucks that we can’t even play small ball right.

By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.

"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw

by Gdawg on Jun 18, 2009 2:07 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

This bunt/no bunt debate is both timeless and time-wasting...

There are, IMO, solid arguments on both side of the coin, and the arguments tend to break along the stereotypical “stats wonk/observation” lines. So, no one is going to convince anyone.

I still think the AJ pinchhit was the bigger mistake. Bringing a slow bat guy in to face a fireballer, when (a) the guy he is hitting for is going well and (b) you only need a single just seems like the biggest puzzler of the night.

The Texas Rangers have been synonymous with explosive firepower ever since they emptied 130 rounds into Bonnie Parker and Clyde Barrow in 1934. - Alyssa Milano

by bking on Jun 18, 2009 2:08 PM CDT reply actions   1 recs

AJ

was 2 for 4 lifetime off of Valverde before that AB

That's why they call them business sox

by egriffey on Jun 18, 2009 2:11 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

and Viz was 3 or 8 or somesuch...

The Texas Rangers have been synonymous with explosive firepower ever since they emptied 130 rounds into Bonnie Parker and Clyde Barrow in 1934. - Alyssa Milano

by bking on Jun 18, 2009 2:12 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Also, one of Jones' hits was a dinger in 2005

Anyone want to suggest that Jones’ stats from pre-2007 should enter into this debate???

The Texas Rangers have been synonymous with explosive firepower ever since they emptied 130 rounds into Bonnie Parker and Clyde Barrow in 1934. - Alyssa Milano

by bking on Jun 18, 2009 2:21 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'll be your huckleberry

"Hang-Dai, Wu...Hang-Fu$&ing-Dai"

by Walter Sobchak on Jun 18, 2009 2:24 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Poor Johnny Ringo, he was just too high strung...

The Texas Rangers have been synonymous with explosive firepower ever since they emptied 130 rounds into Bonnie Parker and Clyde Barrow in 1934. - Alyssa Milano

by bking on Jun 18, 2009 2:27 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

That movie is SOOOO much better than Wyatt Earp...

and is some of Val Kilmer’s best work, IMVHO.

The Texas Rangers have been synonymous with explosive firepower ever since they emptied 130 rounds into Bonnie Parker and Clyde Barrow in 1934. - Alyssa Milano

by bking on Jun 18, 2009 2:32 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree with all of this.

Kilmer nailed the cinematic version of Doc, as far as I’m concerned.

by Snark on Jun 18, 2009 2:38 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I was reading about Doc Holiday a while back...

I didn’t realize he was a dentist and at one point had an office in Dallas near where the school book depository is today.

"You fool! You fell victim to one of the classic blunders! The most famous is never to get involved in a land war in Asia. And only slightly less well known is this: never go in against a Sicilian when death is on the line!"

by GhostofSteveFoucault on Jun 18, 2009 2:46 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

this is awesome.

I NEVER knew this.

"Hang-Dai, Wu...Hang-Fu$&ing-Dai"

by Walter Sobchak on Jun 18, 2009 3:38 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

He was great in that movie...

one of my favorite scenes in any movie is where Doc shows up to fight Ringo….“Why Johnny Ringo, you look like somebody just walked over your grave…”

"You fool! You fell victim to one of the classic blunders! The most famous is never to get involved in a land war in Asia. And only slightly less well known is this: never go in against a Sicilian when death is on the line!"

by GhostofSteveFoucault on Jun 18, 2009 2:54 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Blast!!!

can’t access it at work…

"You fool! You fell victim to one of the classic blunders! The most famous is never to get involved in a land war in Asia. And only slightly less well known is this: never go in against a Sicilian when death is on the line!"

by GhostofSteveFoucault on Jun 18, 2009 3:18 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sucks.

Something to look forward to at home, then.

by Snark on Jun 18, 2009 3:38 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

What a fucking OUTSTANDING

movie that is.

"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008

by Rodney on Jun 18, 2009 4:36 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

TOMBSTONE

In 1991, I was 8 and thought Kirby Puckett would come beat up the monster in the closet if I prayed hard enough.
by GhettoBear04 on May 17, 2009 5:26 PM CDT

by awillis111 on Jun 18, 2009 5:08 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I love it:

Billy Clanton: Why, it’s the drunk piano player. You’re so drunk, you can’t hit nothin’. In fact, you’re probably seeing double.
[Billy Clanton draws a knife]
Doc Holliday: [takes out a second gun] I have two guns, one for each of ya.

"Hang-Dai, Wu...Hang-Fu$&ing-Dai"

by Walter Sobchak on Jun 18, 2009 3:43 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

If you weren't going to bunt in last night's game

you basicly are never going to bunt.

Runner on 2B, 0 outs, and here is your hitting pool for the next 3 ABs and how they are all hitting in June:

Davis .244/.295/.366
Andrus .129/.270/.129
Boggs .167/.167/.333
Teagarden .182/.182/.364
Jones .143/.167/.357
Saltalamacchia .212/.257/.212
Vizquel .250/.250/.250

Odds are pretty high that no matter which 3 batters hit, you are going to get 3 outs without a run.

"Go post a dinosaur in a gameday thread."-Finnerty.Fan

by DJCahill on Jun 18, 2009 2:23 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wash is a small-ball guy [allegedly]

I was expecting him to bunt, but I guess he was thinking along the same lines as AMJ. Personally, I wanted to see Andrus or maybe even Boggs lay it down. Yes, Salty Struck out, but he struck out trying to get a hit. Maybe he changes his approach, and tries to slap the ball to right field with a guy on first.

That's why they call them business sox

by egriffey on Jun 18, 2009 2:10 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Considering

Chris Davis’s chances of not making an out are about 1 in 4, and most of those outs he isn’t going to advance anyone due to his high K%, and giving how poorly this team is hitting in general in June, I think going small ball was an absolute no brainer.

Going to 3B sets you up for another bunt, or for a sac fly, or even for a weak single to shallow OF.

I generally hate small ball, but:

A) This team isn’t hitting, and basicly you can treat most of the hitters on this team as pitchers.
B) It was the 9th inning
C) It was a tie game.
D) Any run was a walk off run.

1 Run is worth as much as a crooked number inning, so the odds start favoring small ball. Most of the odds against small ball are improved by the odds of getting the big run innining, and that’s just meaningless here.

"Go post a dinosaur in a gameday thread."-Finnerty.Fan

by DJCahill on Jun 18, 2009 2:10 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I tend to agree with all of this.

And the 1-run probability tables do, as well. Granted, those tables don’t “know” that the strikeout-prone Saltalamacchia is on deck, but they also don’t “know” that the even-more strikeout prone Davis is at bat…

by Snark on Jun 18, 2009 2:21 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's right, and it's the flaw in using the numbers so blindly..

To me, the probability numbers are like basic strategy, and taking into account the actual situation and the people involved is like card counting. Both can fail you in a given situation, but relying solely on large-sample probabilities won’t make you rich either.

The Texas Rangers have been synonymous with explosive firepower ever since they emptied 130 rounds into Bonnie Parker and Clyde Barrow in 1934. - Alyssa Milano

by bking on Jun 18, 2009 2:25 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

Sure: the tables are a probabilistic tool, not a crystal ball.

Understanding them is a complement, not a replacement, for understanding the game.

That said, when you consider the specific context last night in light of the general information you get from the 1-run probability tables, I don’t think you can simply dismiss what the tables tell you.

by Snark on Jun 18, 2009 2:28 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm more in line with Dan's point..

Aside from what the tables tell you, but mostly looking at the available pool of hitters for the rest of the inning, I bunt every time. So, I’m not dismissing the tables; I’m STRONGLY augmenting them with a look at the current variables.

The Texas Rangers have been synonymous with explosive firepower ever since they emptied 130 rounds into Bonnie Parker and Clyde Barrow in 1934. - Alyssa Milano

by bking on Jun 18, 2009 2:31 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think we're saying the same thing, here.

When I see Dan talking about the odds in that situation, the probability tables become my point of departure. Again, I’d never advocate using those probabilities while ignoring the specific situation.

by Snark on Jun 18, 2009 2:36 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Group hug then....

Man hug only – one shoulder.

The Texas Rangers have been synonymous with explosive firepower ever since they emptied 130 rounds into Bonnie Parker and Clyde Barrow in 1934. - Alyssa Milano

by bking on Jun 18, 2009 2:37 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

As you implied above

the probability tables tend to assume that you have “average” hitters. There were 7 guys available to hit in the next 3 ABs, and none of them have OBPs over .300 this month, and 3 of them have OBPs under .200.

You aren’t going to be taking the bat away from Babe Ruth or Barry Bonds in their prime.

"Go post a dinosaur in a gameday thread."-Finnerty.Fan

by DJCahill on Jun 18, 2009 2:41 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh, like either of them don't get walked..

It IS pretty telling that they didn’t walk anyone to set up the DP, isn’t it?

The Texas Rangers have been synonymous with explosive firepower ever since they emptied 130 rounds into Bonnie Parker and Clyde Barrow in 1934. - Alyssa Milano

by bking on Jun 18, 2009 2:44 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Because THEY knew

the hitters coming up too.

"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008

by Rodney on Jun 18, 2009 3:07 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yep

the name of the game for the Astros was not to face Kinsler, who has been fairly locked in against them.

"Go post a dinosaur in a gameday thread."-Finnerty.Fan

by DJCahill on Jun 18, 2009 3:16 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Of course. The tables are based on averages.

Even the tables that take into account the lineup position are relying on averages.

So when I see that those tables indicate a higher expectation of scoring one run in the -x/1-out situation than in the -x/0-out situation (and they do), and then I take a look at the pool of players the Rangers had available to bat? The tables back up the rest of my ideas about the best course of action.

by Snark on Jun 18, 2009 2:55 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ack.

That should read “- – x”, and not have the strikeout through it.

You’d think I’d learn that “—x” is not the way to go…

by Snark on Jun 18, 2009 2:56 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I can't find my run probability chart bookmark

Can you link?

Also, one of the things you have to remember is that there isn’t a 100% chance of ending up with a runner on third and one out, which throws off the probabilities as well.

Say you’ve got a 65% chance of ending up with a runner on third and one out, a 10% chance of ending up with runners on first and third and no outs, a 10% chance of ending up with a runner on first and one out, and a 15% chance of ending up with a runner on second and one out.

If you run through all those permutations, I’m not sure that you are any better off with the weighted expected results of those occurrences than just swinging away, even before you factor in Salty’s low rate of putting the ball in play.

by Adam J. Morris on Jun 18, 2009 3:08 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

These are old,

but they’ll have to do for now.

Using your partials, the probability is worse than x/0-out straight up, though I think you overestimate the chances of Byrd being thrown out on a fielder’s choice of some sort, and underestimate the chance of a positive outcome with, say, Andrus pinch-hitting. Using other partials that reflect this, (say, 65, 15, 5, 15) the probability is better than x/0-out.

If you adjust for Saltalamacchia in the – - x situation, you also need to adjust for Davis in the x spot, right?

As I wrote below, I’m also not convinced by your argument that any hit with a runner on second should be assumed to score the runner, for the sake of this argument.

And, of course, these probabilities aren’t inning-specific; they don’t reflect what would be “win probability” in that situation, and that could well be different.

by Snark on Jun 18, 2009 3:29 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Come to think of it, your first partials also don't consider

the chance that a pinch-hitter like Andrus plates the run (say, after failing to connect on a couple bunt attempts), which would be the 100-percent partial.

(I suppose there’s also a chance of a weird double play, or Byrd successfully stealing third on a missed bunt, or getting thrown out and Andrus also winding up out at the plate or first, but I really don’t want to run all of these scenarios ~ I should get back to work, and besides, probability tables are useful as tools, not crystal balls.)

by Snark on Jun 18, 2009 3:36 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sorry, that doesn't work for me...

Given how the Rangers haven’t been hitting, I still bring in Andrus for the bunt. I would have also pinch-hit for Davis, and I would have left Omar in the game to hit for himself. But I respect your analysis big-time, anyway.

Ephesians 3:20-21...and I can only imagine

by TedFord on Jun 18, 2009 2:10 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Stop using logic...

That’s not what this site is about.

"Support the Dutch Oven" - Me

by RangerFloppy on Jun 18, 2009 2:15 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Assuming any hit plates the runner from second

doesn’t work for me here. To see the problems with that assumption, you only have to go as far as the next inning last night: Kinsler on second, no outs, Young singles ~ and Kinsler doesn’t score.

by Snark on Jun 18, 2009 2:16 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Well

If a single doesn’t score Byrd there then you have 1st and 3rd with no outs so you have two chances to get a sac fly or another hit

Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.

by bigsteve on Jun 18, 2009 3:47 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Whoops. That posted too quickly.

Adam writes, “Bunting the runner over doesn’t help you in either of those outcomes,” referencing a potential strikeout or hit from Saltalamacchia.

But if Davis, or the guy in Davis’ spot, doesn’t get the runner to third (and, of course, he didn’t) and Saltalamacchia does manage a hit that sets up runners at the corners with 1 out ~ believe it or not, the probability of scoring a run in that situation is actually less than the probability of scoring one run with only the runner on third and one out, at least according to the table I’m looking at.

Phew. I think I’m done with this for now.

by Snark on Jun 18, 2009 4:06 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

OK

I thought you meant if Davis had gotten a hit and it not scored Byrd

Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.

by bigsteve on Jun 18, 2009 4:13 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I didn't read that as the hypothetical scenario Adam was setting up,

but his post made my head hurt a bit, so I could very well be wrong.

by Snark on Jun 18, 2009 4:15 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

This whole "quasi-Stratomatic" discussion usually makes my head hurt.

But it is interesting discussion for a slow work day.

The Texas Rangers have been synonymous with explosive firepower ever since they emptied 130 rounds into Bonnie Parker and Clyde Barrow in 1934. - Alyssa Milano

by bking on Jun 18, 2009 4:16 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Unfortunately, the discussion

has turned this into a slow work day on my end.

I’m really getting back to work now, I swear…

by Snark on Jun 18, 2009 4:20 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Look out

the idiots will come to tell you how wrong you are

dont you know you bunt every time w/o even assessing the situation at all

the hilarity of it…if wash had bunted and failed, which is extremely possible, then these same people would say he was stupid

by Horns130 on Jun 18, 2009 2:18 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

if wash had bunted and failed, which is extremely possible, then these same people would say he was stupid

Not me.

by Anonymous New Guy on Jun 18, 2009 2:46 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

A little OT

but if you were going to bunt, why not use a pitcher like Millwood or Padilla who presumably has a lot more experience bunting than any of those position players?

Go Rice Owls!

by JBImaknee on Jun 18, 2009 2:24 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

The only thing I can think of is the risk of injury.

Either via pitched ball or by running to 1st without warming up.

Not justifying it, as I like the idea, but that MAY be the reason it isn’t done more. That and the fact that Milly didn’t even have a game shirt on.

The Texas Rangers have been synonymous with explosive firepower ever since they emptied 130 rounds into Bonnie Parker and Clyde Barrow in 1934. - Alyssa Milano

by bking on Jun 18, 2009 2:26 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Like I said yesterday

Hindsight is 20/20… If he had put in Elvis, and he missed two bunts and lined into a dp then everyone would be clamaring for him to have done what he did do…

We won the game… if the next time this happens, the situation might seem to imply a bunt over, then maybe we will try it… But if we win the game regardless, does it matter?

This is our year.

http://www.lonestarball.com/2009/1/29/739765/the-socket-joint-rotator-c

by PM Productions on Jun 18, 2009 2:31 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

If he'd pinch-hit Andrus, and Andrus had failed to get a bunt down,

I would’ve been clamoring about Andrus failing to do his job, not Washington.

And if your interest in discussing baseball strategy is conditional on the Rangers losing, I hope you don’t get to discuss baseball strategy very often in the future.

by Snark on Jun 18, 2009 2:33 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I was vocal about my disappointment with Davis last night.

That doesn’t rule out being vocal about my disappointment with Washington, simultaneously.

I can entertain disappointment with more than one person at a time; I’m good like that.

by Snark on Jun 18, 2009 3:31 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

**

ya but u prove the point here, the decision goes both ways and you cant blame the manager for making a good decision out of two choices and the player not excecuting

This is our year.

http://www.lonestarball.com/2009/1/29/739765/the-socket-joint-rotator-c

by PM Productions on Jun 18, 2009 4:52 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Look:

I criticize the players for not executing, and praise them for the opposite.

I criticize the manager for making what I believe is a bad decision, and praise him for the opposite.

That leads to four possible scenarios:

(a) If the managerial decision is one I believe is good, and the players execute, I praise both the players and the manager.

(b) If the managerial decision is one I believe is good, but the players don’t execute, I criticize the players, and praise the manager.

© If the managerial decision is one I believe is bad, but the players execute, I praise the players, and criticize the manager .

(d) If the managerial decision is one I believe is bad, and the players don’t execute, I criticize both the players and the manager.

The bottom of the 9th in last night’s game was, in my opinion, an example of (d), and so I criticized both Washington on the one hand, and Davis, Saltalamacchia, and Jones on the other. If Washington has pinch-hit Andrus, the situation would have either been (a) or (b), depending on how Andrus and the batters who followed him executed.

Similarly, the bottom of the 10th in last night’s game was, in my opinion, an example of ©, since the players wound up executing (and winning) despite what I believe were bad decisions by Washington in the previous inning.

So, yes, I can blame the manager.

by Snark on Jun 18, 2009 5:13 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I have not problem with that

I agree with a lot of that…

What Im saying is that their are two roads he could have taken, and you cant say that one was the BAD choice when it only became bad because of the players inability to do what a major league ball player should be able to do.

This is our year.

http://www.lonestarball.com/2009/1/29/739765/the-socket-joint-rotator-c

by PM Productions on Jun 18, 2009 6:08 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

The manager's job

is to put his players in the best position to succeed. So if Andrus has a 65-75% chance of succeeding and fails, then blame the player. If Davis has a 25-35% chance of succeeding, then blame the manager.

by robert_d_wilfong on Jun 18, 2009 7:50 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

But, it's what we do..

Arguing over Angels on the head of a pin….

The Texas Rangers have been synonymous with explosive firepower ever since they emptied 130 rounds into Bonnie Parker and Clyde Barrow in 1934. - Alyssa Milano

by bking on Jun 18, 2009 2:33 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Salty can't get the run home from 3rd with 1 out?

That’s still 90 feet further than what we got last nite. Bunt – no brainer

we're from Texas
CJ says "Relax"

by eclou on Jun 18, 2009 2:37 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Houston would have had the infield in if the bunt was successful

meaning a hard hit grounder has an increased chance of getting through

by texasraider on Jun 18, 2009 2:44 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Maybe you don't bunt

I still think it is a bunting situation though. My biggest problem is not pinch hitting for the Stike Out King, but later deciding to pich hit for Omar.

by Anonymous New Guy on Jun 18, 2009 2:44 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I thought bunting was the right call

but then again, I think its in the same vein as hitting 16 against a Face upcard in blackjack. Hitting it is the right call, but its close to a coin flip decision, and whatever you do you are likely to fail.

"Go post a dinosaur in a gameday thread."-Finnerty.Fan

by DJCahill on Jun 18, 2009 3:32 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Good analogy.....

The Texas Rangers have been synonymous with explosive firepower ever since they emptied 130 rounds into Bonnie Parker and Clyde Barrow in 1934. - Alyssa Milano

by bking on Jun 18, 2009 3:37 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

or is that a simile.... or is that a metaphor?????//

The Texas Rangers have been synonymous with explosive firepower ever since they emptied 130 rounds into Bonnie Parker and Clyde Barrow in 1934. - Alyssa Milano

by bking on Jun 18, 2009 3:45 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

i bunt

because the likelihood of those 3 guys getting a hit is terrible right now. i would rather have that runner on 3rd base and any number of things happen: wild pitch, med fly ball, bring the infield in and dribbler gets through, bad throw home….

the ability to get a hit from the 8 or 9 guy are still in the equation. you are just giving up one out to add all those other things into the equation. thats why i don’t get adam’s arguement.

all you are giving up is one at bat by chris davis, possibly the worst regular hitter in baseball right now

by kumizi on Jun 18, 2009 3:48 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

let's change the subject

and talk about how the Rangers are going to kill Brandon Backe tonight.

Greatest Inventions Ever? 1. TiVO, 2. Boobs, 3. Baseball

by willamos2 on Jun 18, 2009 3:48 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Hear, hear!!

The Texas Rangers have been synonymous with explosive firepower ever since they emptied 130 rounds into Bonnie Parker and Clyde Barrow in 1934. - Alyssa Milano

by bking on Jun 18, 2009 3:53 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Someone finally spelled that right!

An LSB landmark achievement! Congrats!

I have no objection to man walking on the moon.

by Chad Crudup on Jun 18, 2009 4:06 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

LOL...

…Where? Where?

I have no objection to man walking on the moon.

by Chad Crudup on Jun 18, 2009 4:10 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

There, there?

"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008

by Rodney on Jun 18, 2009 4:25 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

What, what?

"I dont care to debate with a troll." - Sharky

by RCCook on Jun 18, 2009 4:30 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I hope so too, but I'm just glad we moved on from the JMJ saga

The whole idea of drafting a college hitter, then making us sit through season after season of waiting for his “new swing” to kick in had worn me out.

The Texas Rangers have been synonymous with explosive firepower ever since they emptied 130 rounds into Bonnie Parker and Clyde Barrow in 1934. - Alyssa Milano

by bking on Jun 18, 2009 4:28 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Plus we really don't need a player like him now

COF bat with questionable defense who hits for power, doesn’t take many walks, and isn’t great at making contact.

By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.

"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw

by Gdawg on Jun 18, 2009 4:46 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

could've moved him back to 1B

Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
Mitch Moreland - 2009 Rangers Minor League POY

by RangerMad on Jun 18, 2009 5:30 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Lots of talk on the radio about this same subject...

and most agreed that Andrus should have pinch hit to bunt the runner over.

I know that people are saying it didn’t matter because Salty struck out, but who knows what would have happened:

A. Salty might have had a different approach.
B.Houston could have walked him to set up a double play.
C.Houston could have pitched him differently with a runner on 3rd.

I just liked our odds of winning better with the bunt than taking the chance that Davis, Salty, or Jones gets a hit off the Houston closer.

by death of the cool on Jun 18, 2009 4:29 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Emailed this post to The Hardline

Both Mike & Corby had disagreed with the move on the air. They both emailed me back, with Mike saying that he could see it from AJM"s side. Corby responded with “his opinion, thats all it is. i think he is wrong.” As if what he was expressing on the air was something other than an opinion. That guy is such a douche.

by BrentTaylor21 on Jun 18, 2009 4:34 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

To be clear

I emailed AJM’s post, not death of the cool’s.

by BrentTaylor21 on Jun 18, 2009 4:40 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

To be clear

why bother with The Hardline for baseball talk?

¡Prefiero morir de pie que vivir siempre arrodillado!

"Anyone who hangs themself during autoerotic asphyxiation is free game." - Curmudgeon

Colloquially, a person engaging in the activity is sometimes called a gasper.

by Chase Irwin on Jun 18, 2009 5:43 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

You're right

I should have been listening to Galloway. Good call.

by BrentTaylor21 on Jun 18, 2009 6:27 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hey, there's always option C!

¡Prefiero morir de pie que vivir siempre arrodillado!

"Anyone who hangs themself during autoerotic asphyxiation is free game." - Curmudgeon

Colloquially, a person engaging in the activity is sometimes called a gasper.

by Chase Irwin on Jun 18, 2009 8:48 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's not the point, Adam...

You don’t need a bunt in that situation – just decent execution in putting the ball in play to the right side of the infield. TAG even made mention of that fact during the Davis AB. Hell, it’s not much to ask that a pull hitter actually pull one- though making contact is always an issue with Davis. So, no, bunting in that situation is not necessary, but rather good execution and smart baseball. Now, if Wash failed to make that known to Davis prior to the AB, then I would have a problem it.

As for hitting with 1 out and a runner at 3B, that’s always preferred, regardless of the lineup. It puts pressure on the pitcher to make better pitches, and that’s to a hitter’s advantage. Passed balls, wild pitches, weakly hit grounders all will score a run there.

The PH blunder is more astonishing to me. Putting in a righty to face a righty is just stupid, especially when the lefty already had a hit earlier in the game and he had a good history against that pitcher – not to mention that AJ isn’t showing much lately. If I needed a homerun, then maybe I PH there, but I think Vizquel gave a better chance at a single.

by Bats and Balls on Jun 18, 2009 4:30 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

i think you have to consider

if elvis successfully puts down the bunt, and the next guy fails to score byrd on an out, you still have a good chance that there are only two outs, which gives one more hitter a chance to get a hit to drive in byrd. you also still have the chance that evlis bunts for a hit and/or there is an errant throw on the bunt. you also have two batters for which a wild pitch scores byrd.

i think you also have to consider the alterations in hitting approaches that may come into play. i think when a player is aware that all he needs to do is get a fly ball or ground ball up the middle he is focused more on making contact and less likely to strike out. that isn’t assured, but i dont think you can point to salty’s strikeout rates as likely to obtain in that unique situation.

by Smoakin in the Boys Room on Jun 18, 2009 4:31 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

"you also have to consider the alterations in hitting approaches that may come into play"

when do Rangers hitters ever change their approach from “be aggressive and drive it”?

Definiton of insanity-doing the same thing and expecting different results
"Introducing your 2009 Texas Rangers-Built for Insanity!"

by randyd on Jun 18, 2009 4:59 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

like i said, a different approach MAY come into play

and i agree, the rangers tend to have a one-dimensional approach to hitting. but with less than two outs and a man on third in the 9th of a tie ball game, i seriously doubt any hitter is going up there to do his best adam dunn impersonation.

by Smoakin in the Boys Room on Jun 18, 2009 6:09 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Didnt know if this had been posted from ESPN

You can add Texas to the list of teams interested in Nick Johnson, or some kind of left-handed bat who could play, or platoon at, first base. “They’ve got to send Chris Davis back [to the minors],” said one scout. “This kid has lost all feel for the strike zone. They can’t let him keep going on a 250-strikeout pace. You can get him out anywhere in the strike zone right now.”

by Michael Cave on Jun 18, 2009 5:01 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

"Anywhere *in* the strike zone":

This is what really worries me.

by Snark on Jun 18, 2009 5:15 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I have a question.

If you don’t bunt in the situation last night,

When DO you bunt?

Because last night’s situation is probably one of the few times that logic says that you SHOULD play small ball.

So, if you think that it’s incorrect to bunt then, are you saying that you should never bunt planning to sacrifice?

R

by Requiem on Jun 18, 2009 5:19 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I think Chris Davis, with Salty hitting behind him, is probably the only spot you don't bunt in the order in that situation

If Davis is on 2nd (first of all hallelujah he got a hit) then you bunt with Salty and let Andrus or Vizquel try and get him in

If Murphy is on 2nd then you bunt with Byrd and pray to god Davis can make contact or PH for him

Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.

by bigsteve on Jun 18, 2009 5:23 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

And why not pinch hit?

For either or both?

Basically, you’re not limited to Davis and Salty.

I could understand if it was after 15 innings or so and we’d already used up some bench players, but I don’t really see a need to conserve pinch hitters at that time.

R

by Requiem on Jun 18, 2009 6:02 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

i agree

you put yourself at a slight disadvantage if you dont score the run and have to go to extra innings with defensive changes, but i think you have to play to win, especially with our bullpen already being heavily tapped into at that point.

if Davis cant be counted on to bunt, bring in elvis. get that one run. it really is one of the situations where bunting should be most obvious because all those extra runs you could theoretically score by playing for the big inning are completely irrelevant. the first run is all that matters and i just cant accept that letting davis swing away was the likely path to scoring it.

by Smoakin in the Boys Room on Jun 18, 2009 6:16 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well put

That’s essentially what I think, but put pretty eloquently.

It might be a different matter if you’re the away team, and the pinch hitting forced you to play players out of position.

But for that situation, I think you do what you can to maximize the probabilities of getting that one run.

R

by Requiem on Jun 18, 2009 6:24 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

But as Adam pointed out

With Salty batting there isn’t much difference in probability of getting that guy home. So do you PH for Salty too?

Basically you would have to PH Andrus for Davis to bunt Byrd over.

PH Tea for Salty to hope to get a sac fly to win. And if that doesn’t happen you would either let Vizquel try and get a single and then either put Andrus at SS and Jones at 1st or let Vizquel keep playing and put Jones at 1st. Or you PH Jones hoping he gets a hit which he hasn’t been doing much of lately.

All that uses up 3 bench players and you don’t really increase your probability to win.

Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.

by bigsteve on Jun 18, 2009 6:29 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sure,

Why not? Sure you use up two bench spots (no, you don’t have to pinch hit for Vizquel, you shot your wad with whoever pinch hits for Salty), but

You DO increase your probability to win.

That’s the whole point of bunting in that situation. Otherwise, it never makes sense to sacrifice bunt EVER.

R

by Requiem on Jun 18, 2009 8:03 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

+1

What say you, Adam?

¡Prefiero morir de pie que vivir siempre arrodillado!

"Anyone who hangs themself during autoerotic asphyxiation is free game." - Curmudgeon

Colloquially, a person engaging in the activity is sometimes called a gasper.

by Chase Irwin on Jun 18, 2009 8:50 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

i dont know that i buy

that letting davis swinging away gives you an equal chance of winning as the small ball scenario. i guess it’d be more scientific to try and do an outcome chart or something, but there are certainly some variables whose quantities change when the situation changes.

even if you only go from say, a 50% chance of plating byrd to a 55% chance, it seems well worth it. if you have to do some creative pinch hitting and end up with a compromised defensive alignment, you do it. the weaker defense may hurt you if you dont score byrd, but youre headed for extra innings so the marginal increase in runs allowed per 9 innings that the new defense gives up shouldnt be a huge factor. it’s not like you are playing for that lone run in the fifth inning.

by Smoakin in the Boys Room on Jun 18, 2009 8:12 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I believe

there’s a good chance that if Andrus pinch hits, he gets IBBed. Then you have your scenario. The issue was not whether to bunt, but whether to PH for Davis. I think Davis is the only player on the team that wouldn’t have gotten IBBed in that situation. And there’s a very obvious reason for that.

by robert_d_wilfong on Jun 18, 2009 7:58 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

only decisons I question from last night

are having Murphy try to bunt in the 6th inning and PH Jones for Vizquel. Why give up an out in the 6th and right now Vizquel is hitting better than AJ.

Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
Mitch Moreland - 2009 Rangers Minor League POY

by RangerMad on Jun 18, 2009 5:32 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Exactly,

people are worrying about the wrong thing. The blunder was bunting in the 6th. You have your 5th place hitter bunt in a game which you’re already winning. If you don’t trust him to hit in that situation, then he shouldn’t be batting 5th or even playing at all. That was the real dumb moment of the night.

"A good start would be not giving up 900 runs again." -Jon Daniels

by Randy Richardson on Jun 19, 2009 1:02 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

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