Pitching vs. Defense: What's the difference?
There's been talk recently about whether the Rangers' pitching is actually better this year than last, or if it's a product of an improved defense.
One recent conversation, between Adam J. Morris and someone we'll just call J. Wales, went something like this:
AJM: Run prevention is better. Pitching, not really.
J. Wales: The defense is much better and a big reason this team gives up fewer runs but to point blank say the pitching really isn’t any better is among the very dumbest things ever said on this message board.
I was interested in this myself, so I delved into good ol' FanGraphs, who brought the statistical noise. The stat that would best capture this, in my estimation, is FIP, or Fielding Independent Pitching. Dave Cameron explains it well:
FIP removes defense from the equation by only looking at three factors that a pitcher has demonstrable control over - walks, strikeouts, and home runs allowed. By using FIP, we’re isolating the pitcher’s core abilities and evaluating him based on those skills. Now, we’re not claiming that FIP captures everything a pitcher is responsible for. It is not the perfect context-neutral pitcher run modeler - we know that. But when confronted with a choice of including way too many non-pitcher inputs or leaving out a few minor actual pitcher inputs, the latter was the better choice.
On to the numbers:
Texas' 2008 ERA: 5.37
Texas' 2008 FIP: 4.83
Difference: +0.53
Texas' defense cost the Rangers pitching staff an extra 0.53 on its collective ERA. But what about 2009?
Texas' 2009 ERA: 4.44
Texas' 2009 FIP: 4.91
Difference: -0.47
The Rangers' defense has shaved an extra 0.47 off the pitching staff's collective ERA. Meanwhile, the FIP is a full 0.08 higher in 2009 than it was in 2008.
So, the defense is markedly better in 2009 while the pitching has actually grown worse. Let's please put the "Texas' pitching is much, much better!" meme to rest, please.
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18 comments
Comments
This doesn't put it to rest, BTW.
Wonderboy, what is the secret of your power? Wonderboy, won't you take me far away from the mucky-muck now. -- Tenacious D
by rooster on Jun 24, 2009 2:08 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Oh, I know.
But it was worth a shot.
"I love winning." - rockin_rangers, on May 16, 2009
by ghtd36 on Jun 24, 2009 2:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like this post
and I agree that this is mainly a function of improved defense no matter what Josey Donuts says. Also, Hamilton was playing an excellent CF before getting injured.
by Michael Cave on Jun 24, 2009 4:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
but it does give us something else
to foodfight over other than our suckass offense.
"I saw a soldier try to dig a foxhole with his bare hands. He didn't notice that he'd torn off all his fingernails. I got him out of there quickly; not for his sake, but for ours. Fear is poison in combat...destructive, contagious." - Band of Brothers
by DJCahill on Jun 24, 2009 2:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Of course it doesn't...
…there is no way to praise Nolan for any defensive improvements, at least not until the media tells us that he had a CTJM (come to Jesus meeting) with the position players on the subject, so a certain segment of the fandom is going to have to insist that the pitchers are better this year.
I have no objection to man walking on the moon.
by Chad Crudup on Jun 24, 2009 3:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
FIP is a biased stat
sort of like RF.
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
Mitch Moreland - 2009 Rangers Minor League POY
by RangerMad on Jun 24, 2009 3:19 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Why is it biased?
"I saw a soldier try to dig a foxhole with his bare hands. He didn't notice that he'd torn off all his fingernails. I got him out of there quickly; not for his sake, but for ours. Fear is poison in combat...destructive, contagious." - Band of Brothers
by DJCahill on Jun 24, 2009 3:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It doesn't allow for...
…cultural differences.
I have no objection to man walking on the moon.
by Chad Crudup on Jun 24, 2009 3:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
well done
I'm Matt mutha-effing Bush, bitches, and mutha-eff East County.
"I'm as passionate and knowlegeable as any fan out there." Josey Wales
by Brian Thomas on Jun 24, 2009 5:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pitching staffs with high
K rates are probably going to fare better than a staff like the Rangers who are trying to “pitch to contact”. Likewise, fielders that work behind a pitching staff that throws alot of GBs will have better range factor numbers than fielders behing a high k rate/FB staff.
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
Mitch Moreland - 2009 Rangers Minor League POY
by RangerMad on Jun 24, 2009 3:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
But Pitching to contact
means that your Balls in Play will have the ERA based on BABIP.
FIP in fact removes fielding bias, generating an ERA based only on things that are out of the fielders control and fully in the pitchers control, HRs, BBs, HPB, and Ks. You can have a very low FIP without striking out anyone, as long as you don’t walk anyone or give up HRs. A pitcher who has the ball in play 100% of the time (no walks, HRs or Ks) will have a FIP of 3.2.
The only part of FIP thats biased is the HR component which probably could be park adjusted.
The whole BABIP, FIP view has probably been the biggest revolution in Sabr thought.
"I saw a soldier try to dig a foxhole with his bare hands. He didn't notice that he'd torn off all his fingernails. I got him out of there quickly; not for his sake, but for ours. Fear is poison in combat...destructive, contagious." - Band of Brothers
by DJCahill on Jun 24, 2009 4:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
xFIP tries to adjust the HR component a bit
Also, fielding independent stats are a nice tool, but not the whole story. Would you rather have a pitcher like Millwood try to strike out every hitter he faces or would you rather have him pitch to contact knowing the type of defense he has behind him. There is a bit of strategy that FIP glosses over.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
by Gdawg on Jun 24, 2009 4:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd rather have a pitcher
who could strike out a lot of players than one who couldn’t.
Because even if you pitch to contact, eventually you will get runners in scoring position, and a strikeout is a pitcher’s best friend if they absolutely need an out.
FIP doesn’t gloss over that strategy at all. FIP recognizes that pitchers who can get a large number of strikeouts will do better than a pitcher who lets the ball go into play, because roughly 30% of the balls that go into play will become hits, and all strikeouts become outs.
"I saw a soldier try to dig a foxhole with his bare hands. He didn't notice that he'd torn off all his fingernails. I got him out of there quickly; not for his sake, but for ours. Fear is poison in combat...destructive, contagious." - Band of Brothers
by DJCahill on Jun 24, 2009 4:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's because Millwood is not capable to striking out every batter even if he tried
High strikeout pitchers are usually among the top in the ability to throw strikes. They throw pitches in the strike zone that you can’t hit, and they get you to chase stuff outside the zone – that’s why they are able to strike people out. You can’t be a strikeout out pitcher just by throwing fewer strikes.
FIP doesn’t suggest that pitchers should try to be strikeout pitchers, it tells you who is a strikeout pitcher, and who is not. Those who are not strikeout pitchers can’t become one just because they want to. Strikeout pitcher is not a strategy.
There is also the idea that strikeout pitchers don’t get deep into games, I don’t think that’s true either. It’s only the strikeout pitchers who doesn’t have great control that do that. Right now, the top 10 strikeout pitcher this season by K% are: Verlander, Vazquez, Lincecum, Peavy, Lester, Greinke, Santana, Haren, De La Rosa, and Gallardo. These people (maybe except De La Rosa) get plenty deep into games.
by Telegraph on Jun 24, 2009 5:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
pitch location
Is pitch location in a pitcher’s control? It most certainly is. FIP doesn’t account for that.
Generally speaking (or typing) good pitchers will have lower ERAs, a certain level of K/BB and a lower FIPs among other stats. There is no one pitching stat that encompasses everything just as there is not one fielding stat that definitively says MY is a good/bad 3B.
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
Mitch Moreland - 2009 Rangers Minor League POY
by RangerMad on Jun 24, 2009 4:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Of course...
…if they strike out a bunch of batters and walk a bunch of batters, they won’t fare better in terms of FIP.
If they strike out a bunch of batters and don’t walk as many batters as a “pitch to contact” staff, then yeah, they’ll fare better, and they should.
by Adam J. Morris on Jun 24, 2009 4:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Did you say
“strike out a bunch and walk a bunch?” Wasn’t that what Nolan did?
"Evolution happened, now get over it." Michael Shermer
by rodcarew on Jun 24, 2009 7:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
















