Rob Neyer on Chris Davis
by Adam J. Morris on Jun 25, 2009 11:43 AM CDT
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PrintThere's been a lot of talk on the blogosphere about how Chris Davis is dragging down the Rangers offense, and how they need to do something with him ASAP.
Interestingly, Rob Neyer praises the Rangers for sticking with him:
Before this season, then, we have 355 games telling us that Davis can hit. This season, we've got 67 games telling us that he can't. It's to the Rangers' credit that they're paying more attention to 355 than to 67 ... except 67 isn't nothing, you know? Especially when the 67 is so dramatic. I do believe that if Davis is healthy, he deserves to keep playing regularly. But if his numbers aren't getting better by the All-Star break, the Rangers will be left with little choice but to make a change. At some point, the history is overwhelmed by the present and by the damage the present is doing to everyone's credibility and psyches.
Of course, he also ends the piece with this sentence:
(On a happier note, I love what the Rangers are doing with Neftali Perez.)
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I can't wait to get my Neftali Perez jersey.
When I see a solar eclipse I think "oh no, is the moon eating the sun?"
I can't wait until I can get my
Martin Perez jersey…
2009 Texas Rangers: Why The Hell Not Us?--ghtd36 on May 13, 2009
Don't you mean your Martin Feliz jersey
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Yes, thanks Steve
As I was typing that a co-worker walked into my office and I got distracted.
2009 Texas Rangers: Why The Hell Not Us?--ghtd36 on May 13, 2009
when are people going to get his name right
it’s ridiculous
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
who got it wrong
sullivan (who then changed it?) or adam?
Hall of Fame pitcher Nolan Ryan was on the same pitching staff with Danny Darwin during the 1986 through 1988 seasons. Both were described by Milo Hamilton as "tall, tough Texans." It was a source of debate amongst Astros players and fans over who would win in a fight, Ryan or Darwin. Though Astros pitcher Bob Knepper attempted to set up a fight between the two during spring training in 1988, manager Hal Lanier stopped it before it could commence. Many experts, including Astros shortstop Rafael Ramirez, felt that Darwin would win because he "looked like someone no man would want to mess with."
it's in the Rob Neyer article that way
A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
oh
nm. sullivan had it right, neyer had it wrong with the link
Hall of Fame pitcher Nolan Ryan was on the same pitching staff with Danny Darwin during the 1986 through 1988 seasons. Both were described by Milo Hamilton as "tall, tough Texans." It was a source of debate amongst Astros players and fans over who would win in a fight, Ryan or Darwin. Though Astros pitcher Bob Knepper attempted to set up a fight between the two during spring training in 1988, manager Hal Lanier stopped it before it could commence. Many experts, including Astros shortstop Rafael Ramirez, felt that Darwin would win because he "looked like someone no man would want to mess with."
when he's firing 100 mph fastballs past Yankees in this year's playoffs
"Hang-Dai, Wu...Hang-Fu$&ing-Dai"
by Walter Sobchak on Jun 25, 2009 12:40 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm not going to get sucked into this again
But of those 355 games saying Davis can hit, most were in the minor leagues. Yeah, he was great there. So are lots of guys who don’t make it. Davis has 80 games at the big league level (2008) where he was great. And he has 67 games that he big league level where he was awful (2009). At some point, you can’t keep pointing back to success in A ball and AA – it is silly not to discount the minor leauges for being minor leagues.
The “Davis needs to be sent down because he’s K’ing” argument that Neyer seems to be addressing doesn’t even exist. No one is really saying that. Of course you can K and be productive. But you either have to hit for very high average when you aren’t K’ing or take walks. Davis isn’t doing either for some reason, and it isn’t even close. I could care less if Davis struck out 250 times a season if he was very productive in his other 400 plate appearances. But he isn’t, and he hasn’t been in a long time.
Go Rice Owls!
How many guys who don't make it are great in the minor leagues?
I hear this argument all the time, but the reality is, there are very, very few players who are great at the minor league level, but suck in the majors.
Generally speaking, if a guy can hit in the minors — particularly when he’s young for his level, like Davis has been — he can hit in the majors.
by Adam J. Morris on Jun 25, 2009 12:23 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
Especially to Davis's level of performance
I’d like to know the guys at age appropriate minor league levels with a .952 career ops that couldn’t hit at all in the mlb.
I think some underrate just how good davis’s minor league career was.
the preceding post was a great success.
I guess it depends on what you mean by failure
There aren’t too many Andy Marte’s who tear up the minors and just flame out entirely as they approach the majors. But there are guys like Gabe Kapler, just to pick an example off the top of my head, who have great numbers in the minors as kids and end up being fairly mediocre when they make the majors.
He’s not a perfect example, of course. Davis showed more last season in the bigs than Kapler ever did during his short stints.
Without checking everyone’s stats, I imagine that most major leaguers – great, good, average, mediocre, and bad had pretty good minor league numbers. Now, Davis’s numbers were very high and he probably overlaps with the good and great more than the mediocre and bad. But he’s also a unique type of hitter – there aren’t many high-K, high average, average walks hitters out there – so it is hard to use other players for projection.
Go Rice Owls!
Yep,
the whole “If he can hit in the minors he’ll hit in the majors” is grossly overstated.
I’d be curious to know how guys with 3.5:1 SO:BB ratios in the minors fare in the majors. I suspect they aren’t particularly successful.
"I saw a soldier try to dig a foxhole with his bare hands. He didn't notice that he'd torn off all his fingernails. I got him out of there quickly; not for his sake, but for ours. Fear is poison in combat...destructive, contagious." - Band of Brothers
Its really not that grossly overstated
I’d venture a guess that guys who have had an OPS over 1.000 in the upper levels of the minors while still being young for the league have a very high success rate in the Majors. Maybe not superstar success, but some pretty good performers nonetheless.
Lucas looked at a lot of top hitters last year when Cruz was destroying AAA pitching, I wonder if he still has that data to look at and see how many guys have hit as well as Davis has and what their future was.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
I wish I had a good database
to screen minor leaguers with high kk:bb and high OPS. I’d just be curious about the success rate. I wouldn’t assume K rates would drop in the majors or bb rates would rise. I tried randomly searching high K guys previously, but most of them had KK:BB of 2 or less in the minors.
I know when I have looked a OPS-BA in the past, I typically don’t see that rise significantly over a career. There are a few players whose BB rates rise, but not that many. For most folks it just seems to randomly walk in a +/- .02 range.
"I saw a soldier try to dig a foxhole with his bare hands. He didn't notice that he'd torn off all his fingernails. I got him out of there quickly; not for his sake, but for ours. Fear is poison in combat...destructive, contagious." - Band of Brothers
John Sickels
always maintains that plate discipline is one of the strongest indicators of future success. That discipline is one reason I like Mitch Moreland and one reason we should all be very excited about Smoak.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
It wouldn't surprise me.
I don’t recall offhand a lot of hackers who struck out a ton and didn’t walk who “saw the light”. Tough to put your power to use if you can’t make contact.
"I saw a soldier try to dig a foxhole with his bare hands. He didn't notice that he'd torn off all his fingernails. I got him out of there quickly; not for his sake, but for ours. Fear is poison in combat...destructive, contagious." - Band of Brothers
Not the point
I think Davis needs to be sent down b/c he clearly has an issue with his ability to recognize pitches and his swing has some weird things going on as well
i think he just needs to go down to work some of those kinks out…i am by no means saying he will suck forever
And I think you are misinterpreting Neyer's point
Neyer’s point is that what happened before this season shouldn’t be thrown out the window because Davis has been terrible so far this season.
by Adam J. Morris on Jun 25, 2009 12:24 PM CDT up reply actions
I don't think it should be thrown out the window
And I guess I’ve been remiss in making that point clear. Davis’s entire record suggests that he has the potential to be a productive major league player, his great half season last year shows that he can do it at the highest levels. Davis shouldn’t be dumped or ignored in planning for the team’s future going forward. I don’t think two and a half months of bad baseball dooms him to failure.
But I also think that all the arguments that you make (and I agree with you, most guys with Davis’s success and age combination eventually do well – most of the guys with great minor league numbers who fail are older), also suggest that it is very possible he just needs more time in the minors. He moved very fast through the system. It is fully reasonable that he was moved too quickly, that he has things to learn about being a professional baseball player still. Maybe not hitting home runs or fielding. But how to deal with the ups and downs that he has never faced before.
Who knows. It just isn’t working this way, and I’m trying to find arguments as to why. I don’t think he’s a hopeless cause, I just think he’s a cause best served (for him, btw, I’m not talking about the Rangers hopes this season) by being in AAA right now.
Go Rice Owls!
Yep I agree
I don’t think anyone is glossing over his minor league numbers but some are putting waaaaaay too much emphasis on them and ignoring how god awful he has been this year.
Send him down and let him just play in an environment where there isn’t as much pressure on the W/L record.
Personally I would have sent him down earlier so he could spend a good 2 months or so on the farm and then bring him back up in August or so, if warranted, and he could have been a big addition to hopefully a playoff contending team. Now I fear we will wait too long and he will only get a month or 6 weeks of playing time on the farm and come up too late to make that big a difference
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
I think that's a separate argument, though
Sending him down because he’s more likely to get straightened out in the minors is one thing.
Sending him down because he’s teh suck is different, and I think is more of what Neyer is talking about.
by Adam J. Morris on Jun 25, 2009 12:49 PM CDT up reply actions
So why is the AS Break the magical time
to make a judgment on Davis?
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
" I don’t feel like arguing with laxtonto about it for the same reason I wouldn’t argue with him if he said the earth was flat. He’s a person who is happy with his head up his ass so why should I make him sad?"
Nothing magical about it
just a convenient point in the schedule to make changes.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
Why piss away 15 more games when Davis has shown no sustained progress?
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
" I don’t feel like arguing with laxtonto about it for the same reason I wouldn’t argue with him if he said the earth was flat. He’s a person who is happy with his head up his ass so why should I make him sad?"
Just go ahead and say what you want to say
Keep going with the thinking that Blalock is losing a ton of playing time to Davis and that its another huge mistake from Wash that Blalock isn’t playing more.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
I don't think there
is any magic to sending him down right this minute either.
Blalock in June: .186/.286/.326
Jones in June: .162/.200/.405
Davis in June: .200/.250/.333
Pick your poison. All 3 have gotten much worse every month. Looking at those number above, and with the rest of the team slumping, I don’t see any particular hurry to sending Davis down in favor of Hank “I can’t hit lefties” Blalock and Andruw “Maybe I am toast after all” Jones.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
"All 3 have gotten much worse every month"
Bullshit.
Blalock OPS in April was .852.
Blalock OPS in May was .855.
Come June, Blalock goes into a heavy platoon with Jones at DH and Davis gets almost all the starts at 1B.
The offense then goes into the tank for the month of June.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
" I don’t feel like arguing with laxtonto about it for the same reason I wouldn’t argue with him if he said the earth was flat. He’s a person who is happy with his head up his ass so why should I make him sad?"
Well, pardon the hell out of me
Blalock took a dive in June, like most of the offense. He should be platooning only, as we’ve discussed NUMEROUS times recently, so your plaintive cries of him being underused are pointless.
Your post makes it seem like the offense went “into the tank” at exactly the same time and therefore because of Blalock playing less, which is utterly ridiculous. Blalock is a platoon bat, of course he isn’t going to start every game.
Nothing you said refutes the stats I posted above for June. All 3 have sucked. They have sucked so bad they’re almost worse at hitting than you are at posting.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
You said "All three have gotten worse each month" and if
you look at OPS (one of the best evaluations for offense) we see that Blalock was actually better in May than he was in April. Hence, me saying “bullshit.”
Blalock started to heat up towards the end of May and then all of the sudden he starts spending more time on the bench.
Blalock hasn’t been very good in June but he’s only started 11 games this month and it’s June 25.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
" I don’t feel like arguing with laxtonto about it for the same reason I wouldn’t argue with him if he said the earth was flat. He’s a person who is happy with his head up his ass so why should I make him sad?"
A .003 ops split is statistically meaningless.
He was the same in april and may. One of the 3 staying the same between april and may isn’t exactly devastating to the general point.
the preceding post was a great success.
DShepp
Tball said “All three have gotten much worse each month” when Blalock was essentially the same in April & May so yeah, it was fairly devastating to the general point.
In fact, it was flat-out untruthful.
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
" I don’t feel like arguing with laxtonto about it for the same reason I wouldn’t argue with him if he said the earth was flat. He’s a person who is happy with his head up his ass so why should I make him sad?"
tball can be an ass like that
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
I conceded that minor point, idiot.
And in my reply I said “nothing you said refutes the stats I posted for June.”
Blalock’s May was ok, but it doesn’t change anything. He is still a part time player and not a full time replacement for Davis. And in June all 3 have sucked and none are any better than Davis right now.
Devastating. You’re hilarious. In your scramble to look up Hank’s May stats did you notice his 2009 lefty-righty splits? He sucks against lefties. Again. Even worse than his career splits. He’s a platoon player in the midst of a terrible slump.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
But, but, but....
I thought there was NO way that Chris Davis would struggle this whole season! I was told that NO MAJOR LEAGUER has struck out 40% or more and so Chris Davis never would!
Therefore, since it’s guaranteed, just keep him in the major leagues, since he’s bound to rebound!
</Chris Davis fanboy>
R
I believe what people said
was that Davis wouldn’t destroy the strikeout record because if he kept striking out at that rate, the Rangers wouldn’t be playing him often enough (if at all) to strikeout that many times.
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
That might have been what SOME people said
Definitely not all, though.
R
from the perez story
Its a dissapointment to hear the Rangers are moving Feliz to the bullpen – I guess they don’t need starting pitching. Feliz has trained his entire career to date as a starter, so to just stick him in the bullpen is a mistake.
LOL
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
-
Scout to KG: On Sandoval: "Man, that fat [expletive]-er can hit."
Credibility:
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008
This.
Typically like Neyer’s stuff, but when all you do is baseball, and devote an entire piece to one team, you would assume and hope that said columnist would be able to get a simple name right, especially a name that has been in existence for over a year and a half after mis-publications.
Rivalries aside, RIP Nick Adenhart 04/09/2009.
"if daniels was fired today, he would almost be sure to get another shot somewhere else as a GM
i dont know if you can say the same thing abotu RW" - knockoutking
Well to be fair
If you are a writer it is kyour job to check the facts. It’s not like we are talking about a kid that is middle of the pack in the Astros system. Feliz is Ranked in the top 10 of BA’s minor league rankings this year.
2009 Texas Rangers: Why The Hell Not Us?--ghtd36 on May 13, 2009
Make sure and get the Dick & Jane version for him.
In 1991, I was 8 and thought Kirby Puckett would come beat up the monster in the closet if I prayed hard enough.
by GhettoBear04 on May 17, 2009 5:26 PM CDT
Just FYI - according to the Daily Oklahoman:
Feliz will reportedly pitch an inning of relief for the RedHawks in today’s game.
Man
could you imagine how dominant a pitcher he would be, if it truly were Neftali Feliz and Martin Perez mixed together? A 100 mph lefty with pinpoint accuracy and amazing secondary pitches?
"Hang-Dai, Wu...Hang-Fu$&ing-Dai"
by Walter Sobchak on Jun 25, 2009 12:42 PM CDT reply actions
it is estimated that he consistently threw at 100mph
by experts, or professionals? not that I can find.
"Hang-Dai, Wu...Hang-Fu$&ing-Dai"
by Walter Sobchak on Jun 25, 2009 1:04 PM CDT up reply actions
Koufax...
that is probably who you would get if you crossed the 2.
Sandy was the guy that my father absolutely loved when he was growing up. He was devastated when he had to stop playing.
What a dominant pitcher. His run in the early to mid 60’s was amazing.
"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance."-Socrates
In my "Neftali Perez" combo...
…he would throw like Feliz with his right arm on odd numbered days and like Martin with his left arm on even numbered days. Now that’s a useful pitcher.
I have no objection to man walking on the moon.
hah like that guy in the Yankee's system
"Hang-Dai, Wu...Hang-Fu$&ing-Dai"
by Walter Sobchak on Jun 25, 2009 2:45 PM CDT up reply actions
Greg Harris with talent??
The Texas Rangers have been synonymous with explosive firepower ever since they emptied 130 rounds into Bonnie Parker and Clyde Barrow in 1934. - Alyssa Milano
Brilliance
followed by DOOOH
This is our year.
http://www.lonestarball.com/2009/6/21/920707/lifes-a-piece-of-sh-when-you-look
by FormerLSBUser on Jun 25, 2009 1:13 PM CDT reply actions
One thing Neyer says
is that eventually, in his case he says by the All Star break, you have to say to hell with his record and do something with him.
Minor leaguers can’t come up and perform at a below replacement level and expect to hang around indefinitely. They can be below average, obviously, but at some point you can’t afford to drag around below replacement level performance, because it costs you wins and losses.
"I saw a soldier try to dig a foxhole with his bare hands. He didn't notice that he'd torn off all his fingernails. I got him out of there quickly; not for his sake, but for ours. Fear is poison in combat...destructive, contagious." - Band of Brothers
More Importantly to Me
Striking out 250 times and looked like a worthless sack of shit at the plate isnt going to do any favors for CD and he wont improve via that route
send him to the minors so he can get back on track, as well as the obvious fact that it would help the team
I'm starting to think
that Neftali Perez is now a running industry joke. It is like saying the “Natinals”. I think the Rangers should perpetuate it by running him out there in a Perez jersey in one of his first few games. And baseball card companies should print a few rare Neftali Perez cards next year as collectors items. If he gets big, that card could be more valuable than the “fuck face” card.
What is this, Horseville? Because I'm surrounded by naysayers.
I like that idea
the Rangers should just start sending out press releases that he has filed to change his name legally to Perez just to make it convenient for everyone.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
Either that
Or, when he comes up to the majors, the Rangers should give Neftali a bag of baseballs to carry around. Every time he sees a writer who’s gotten his name wrong, he starts firing 100-mph heat at them and yelling, “what’s my name, bitch?” until they get it right.
"I dont care to debate with a troll." - Sharky
by RCCook on Jun 25, 2009 2:58 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
Maybe the writers are the smart ones...
…and the team and us are all victims to NAME-GATE.
By the way, I hate the use of just adding “gate” on to the back of terms to indicate that it’s a scandal. I get that Watergate was a scandal and is synonymous with scandals, but it’s overuse with: “age-gate” “tape-gate,” etc. is wearing me the hell out.
generally, I like gates
except for Bill
"Hang-Dai, Wu...Hang-Fu$&ing-Dai"
by Walter Sobchak on Jun 25, 2009 3:27 PM CDT up reply actions
Just for fun
the Rangers should “release” Neftali Perez, and see which teams try to pick him up.
Go Rice Owls!
Maybe they are gonna fill up
the 3 room condo quick up there.
"I saw a soldier try to dig a foxhole with his bare hands. He didn't notice that he'd torn off all his fingernails. I got him out of there quickly; not for his sake, but for ours. Fear is poison in combat...destructive, contagious." - Band of Brothers
Yep,
and Farrah’s day just got much, much worse.
He is Dead.
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008
I guess
Ed McMahon, Farrah, and Michael fill up the 3 bedroom condo.
"I saw a soldier try to dig a foxhole with his bare hands. He didn't notice that he'd torn off all his fingernails. I got him out of there quickly; not for his sake, but for ours. Fear is poison in combat...destructive, contagious." - Band of Brothers
???
and Farrah’s day just got much, much worse.
She has died, also. What could be worse??
In 1991, I was 8 and thought Kirby Puckett would come beat up the monster in the closet if I prayed hard enough.
by GhettoBear04 on May 17, 2009 5:26 PM CDT
Maybe he's talking about how the Jackson story will overshadow her death
By 2028, Mark Teixeira will be in the HOF.
"I am one of the biggest Texas Ranger fans out there but I'm also one of the smartest. Deal with it."
-The Outlaw
Id much rather see montages of Farrah as a bombshell
than montages of Jackson
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
Crush, Salty, Cruz, Omar in the line up
Blalock, TT, Tiny E, Boggs – out
"Dying ain't hard. It's living that's hard."
" I don’t feel like arguing with laxtonto about it for the same reason I wouldn’t argue with him if he said the earth was flat. He’s a person who is happy with his head up his ass so why should I make him sad?"
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