Spurdynasty/David Brown on the Rule 4 draft's impact

David brings the heat in discussing how draft position correlates with major league success and illustrating just how valuable first-round picks are, among other topics.

5 months ago Joey Matschulat 5 comments 1 recs |

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Every time I see draft breakdowns like that

I wonder why the baseball draft isn’t shortened considerably, to 20 rounds or so with the remaining players free agents for that season. Teams could still sign FAs to fill out their minors, much like football signs FAs to fill out their practice squads after the draft.

Both the NFL and the NBA have shortened their drafts considerably, and it really doesn’t have many ill effects.

"He (Padilla) shouldve gone back to Venezuela and watched on his Direct TV waiting to find out who his new team would be!!. ." - crops.mlblogs.com

by DJCahill on Jun 9, 2009 9:18 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

The main reason I can think of

is that baseball teams want to make sure that everyone who is even remotely talented ends up the property of one team or another and isn’t a de facto free agent.

The other one is to preserve competitive balance. Yeah, 21st round picks probably won’t make the majors. But they do fill out minor league rosters. What would keep a NY from just outbidding every “just missed” being drafted guy to fill out there rosters, with the hope of catching a few that slipped by? The main problem with this is that the minor league clubs will be imbalanced – the Yankees Low A club will just wallop everyone else’s. Development across the league requires relatively uniform talent levels across organizations.

Go Rice Owls!

by JBImaknee on Jun 9, 2009 10:53 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The thing that would stop them

is that they don’t have enough room to put everybody.

Realistically, everyone after the first 5 or 10 rounds is an incredible longshot. Most likely, you are just drafting to have enough warm bodies to fill out all your teams after that. After 20 rounds or so, you might get someone who will make an impact, but the odds are probably worse than grabbing someone off the waiver wire and having them make an impact.

"He (Padilla) shouldve gone back to Venezuela and watched on his Direct TV waiting to find out who his new team would be!!. ." - crops.mlblogs.com

by DJCahill on Jun 9, 2009 12:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

After 20 rounds

the guys who sign are generally very unlikely to become anything. There are a lot of guys drafted then who everyone knows will go to college, like Armstrong and that Miami kid last year. I think MLB wants them to be bound to one team, so you don’t get them negotiating as free agents after the draft.

Go Rice Owls!

by JBImaknee on Jun 9, 2009 12:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nice analysis

In the high school / college debate, a number that I’d be interested in seeing is the average age that they hit the majors. Elite high school talents (ARod, Griffey, BJ and Justin Upton, for example) can be established major league players by the time they are 20 or 21. Often they are free agents by their prime at 27 or 28.

Only the fastest college guys like Prior will be up by 22. Even guys like Teixeira are 23 when they hit the majors, most are probably 24 or 25 before they get really established. Their “prime” is much earlier in their careers – by the time they are free agents they are around 30.

This seems like an important distinction that rarely gets air time. I’m not sure which is best for a drafting organization, but it does suggest that the real money in baseball is by being an elite high school player…

Go Rice Owls!

by JBImaknee on Jun 9, 2009 11:02 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs