Professor Parks's Top 35

by jparks77 on Jul 10, 2009 7:49 AM CDT Comment 60 comments

In my opinion, the Rangers system is made up of several tiers. The first tier houses prospects like Justin Smoak and Martin Perez, guys that usually find their way onto most Top 100 lists. The second tier is usually for guys who don't quite have first tier ceilings, but still possess immense skill sets and are often mentioned as having major league futures.

The third tier is a long queue of interchangeable prospects that could swap spots depending on a hot streak, promotion, or just gut feeling. These players could evolve into a higher echelon of prospect or they could eventually fade into the attritional fog. Fourth tier players usually have major question marks surrounding their prospect status, either as a result of a limited professional record, age (young/old), and/or skill set translations.

A few samples:

1. 1B Justin Smoak

Justin Smoak is clearly one of the best position prospects in all of baseball. His combination of patience and power potential could make him a devastating hitter in the middle of a major league line-up. His defense has been a bit of a disappointment so far, but given his work ethic, he should eventually be an above-average defensive first-baseman at the highest level.

6. RHP Wilmer Font

Font's fastball, while not nearly as effortless as Feliz's, might be every bit as good. His comps are slowly working their way into shape, although he still has a considerable amount of progress to make. His command isn't there yet, but considering Font lost most of the 2008 season to injuries and issues, his development is on course. Font is setting himself up to explode as a prospect in 2010, where he will most likely begin the season in the High A rotation, pitching as a 19-year-old.

10. RHP Joseph Wieland

Follow me: Wieland's raw stuff isn't great, but it's good, but it could eventually end up better than just good, but still probably not great, but thanks to his pitchability, it might appear great, when it's only really good. Got it? Good.
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Main at 7

I still believe. And Joey said yesterday that he, Trip, and David will have a composite ranking up next week. Rankings galore!

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by t ball on Jul 10, 2009 8:01 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Prospect manna from heaven, JP.

Get on base or die, Salty.

"You know, I’m playing entirely too much." - Andruw Jones

Hello Win Column

by lonestarJon on Jul 10, 2009 8:26 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Bonus points

for mentioning Willie Moscoso is skinny.

Where does/would Miggy De Los Santos fall, I wonder.

Look at the comments under Jeff Wilson's blog post on dallasnews.com. What a bunch of rocket scientists.- Keith Law

by Keynes on Jul 10, 2009 9:05 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Crack cocaine.

"[Font} doesn't turn 19 until the end of May and his heater can already hit 99 on the gun. That's baseball porn." - Jason Parks

by hightowersmith on Jul 10, 2009 9:11 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs

The top 35 straight from the horses mouth

excellent.

"I'm against picketing, but I don't know how to show it." - Mitch Hedberg

by rentz on Jul 10, 2009 9:14 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs

I like the way you rank guys

You seem to weight risk and ceiling appropriately.

I’ll give away a guy 80% likely to be a BORG for a guy only 10% likely to be a TORG any day. Main over Boscan right there…

Go Rice Owls!

by JBImaknee on Jul 10, 2009 9:15 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Whither Profar and Sardinas?

They are just as signed as Scheppers and Purke. Both should be much ahead of Telis and Alveraz, based upon reports.

Wonderboy, what is the secret of your power? Wonderboy, won't you take me far away from the mucky-muck now. -- Tenacious D

by rooster on Jul 10, 2009 9:41 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Why is that?

What reports? Telis and Alvarez have reports as well you know.

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by jparks77 on Jul 10, 2009 9:52 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Removing the bit of snark

I think it is a good question, where Juri and Sardines fall on your board.

Look at the comments under Jeff Wilson's blog post on dallasnews.com. What a bunch of rocket scientists.- Keith Law

by Keynes on Jul 10, 2009 10:39 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not sure

They have tools, but I havent seen them perform against legit competition. Playing in the youth leagues in Latin America is a different scene than playing in the States. Guys like Telis and Alvarez have already proven that they can make the transition to professional baseball. Instructs should be interesting this season.

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by jparks77 on Jul 10, 2009 11:01 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I read a good post

somewhere the other day that pointed out that these Latin guys don’t really even play very many games, and the games they do play are often cobbled together by Buscones specifically to showcase them. A lot of the reports we read are generated through workouts instead of games, kind of tough to get a real read, especially on a 16-yr. old.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Jul 10, 2009 11:14 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe this...

From Keynes’ fanshot:

http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?name=gammons_peter&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fespn%2fblog%2findex%3fname%3dgammons_peter

“It is amazing to see these kids in a tryout setting — they can tune up a BP fastball and run the 60 but lack instincts and most basic fundamentals,” one international scouting director said. “When we put them in games, their lack of game-playing skills stick out — they can’t slide, don’t recognize situations. But buscones continue to emphasize power, arm strength and speed — nothing else. What’s more, they’re taken out of school at 10 years old, and their abilities to retain information are severely hindered. We try to get these kids to learn English, yet their Spanish isn’t very good.”

"[Font} doesn't turn 19 until the end of May and his heater can already hit 99 on the gun. That's baseball porn." - Jason Parks

by hightowersmith on Jul 10, 2009 11:18 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

That wasn't it

but it certainly makes some of the same points.

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by t ball on Jul 10, 2009 11:29 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I remember that

They (scouts) were talking about how some of the kids the Rangers signed actually performed well in game situations, as opposed to the showcase type thing referenced above.

"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
"you gonna lose your horse. seriously." FX2
Yes we can! November 04, 2008

by Rodney on Jul 10, 2009 11:47 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well.

I think it doesn’t matter too much since I think they are sitting in your tier 4. So, one over the other in that part depends entirely upon whether reports are rated higher than actual playing time.

My sense from reading BA and some other snippets is that both Profar and Sardinas have a higher talent level than Telis, Alvarez, and Escobar. Alvarez is harder to get a read on, since his age prevented him from signing during the more hyped July 2 period, so that reports were more sparse on him. But, I think Profar might have been considered a higher talent level on the mound than at least Alvarez.

I think Sardinas is regarded as a better SS than Telis, but maybe now that Telis is a catcher, this makes him a better talent relative to his position. For example, if Telis had been a catcher going into his July 2 signing period, maybe he would’ve been regarded on a level similar to Jacob Beltre?

Escobar is putting up excellent numbers, and maybe he should’ve been regarded higher than Alvarez when he signed.

In the end, it doesn’t really matter, since, again, this is all tier 4. I just find it interesting that $2M+ for Purke and a $0.5M less or so for Jurickson does not translate into similar regard in rankings.

Also, are the reports on Purke more glowing than they were on Danks and Kiker?

Wonderboy, what is the secret of your power? Wonderboy, won't you take me far away from the mucky-muck now. -- Tenacious D

by rooster on Jul 10, 2009 11:09 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

1.55 MM for Profar...

….according to Gammons, at least.

by Jamey Newberg on Jul 10, 2009 11:10 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

and Ben Badler

The 2009 Texas Rangers offense: sigh...

by Kinslerhomer on Jul 10, 2009 11:11 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Which leaves unsaid the point

that draft bonuses and Latin signings are very different animals.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Jul 10, 2009 11:16 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well

I don’t think its a given that Profar and Sardinas have a higher talent level than Telis, Alvarez, or Escobar. I think they received larger bonuses. We will see how their talent translates. Bonus money is not a good way of evaluating talent.

Also, Escobar was a very highly regarded player when he signed.

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by jparks77 on Jul 10, 2009 11:21 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

ok

Wonderboy, what is the secret of your power? Wonderboy, won't you take me far away from the mucky-muck now. -- Tenacious D

by rooster on Jul 10, 2009 11:37 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yea,

I’m very excited about Escobar…good bloodlines, touched 92 from the left side at 16 years old with the ability to spin off speed stuff.

by ramjam36 on Jul 10, 2009 2:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

You mention three tiers. What are your rough cutoffs for those tiers?

I’m guessing the top 3 in tier 1. Tier 2 ends about number 18.

Wonderboy, what is the secret of your power? Wonderboy, won't you take me far away from the mucky-muck now. -- Tenacious D

by rooster on Jul 10, 2009 9:43 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I'm guessing Wieland...

…is in Tier 3.

by Adam J. Morris on Jul 10, 2009 10:20 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Whoo had Wieland ranked 10 in his rankings in the offseason?

That’s right.

by tyd3311 on Jul 10, 2009 10:44 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

i dont understand how

madrigal can be ranked below strop

by dustinvandeman on Jul 10, 2009 10:45 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

I was definitely surprused to see Strop so high

by ramjam36 on Jul 10, 2009 11:01 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Strop

I think he has better stuff.

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by jparks77 on Jul 10, 2009 11:02 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

ok so his potentially marginally better stuff

overrides the success madrigal has had as a pitcher in a very short period of time

the injury history of strop

Strop’s terrible pitching so far this year

and madrigal’s dominance upon returning to AAA

by dustinvandeman on Jul 10, 2009 12:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

also to add on

i feel confident that madrigal will be an important bullpen piece somewhere before his career is over

at this point i have no faith in strop although he does have good stuff

and i believe most people would agree with me

by dustinvandeman on Jul 10, 2009 12:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't

Minor Moosings

by Goyogringo on Jul 10, 2009 6:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Phillips not in the top 35?

Okay.

Trade for Ian Snell.

by sprite on Jul 10, 2009 10:55 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Phillips

Why do you think he should be in the top 35? Just curious. I think he has a LOOGY ceiling at best.

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by jparks77 on Jul 10, 2009 11:05 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think he could be a very solid bullpen piece and a decent spot starter.

He’s reverted back to his 07 form. It takes time for him to adjust to a league but once he does he dominates. First year at Clinton and Bakersfield he was awful, 2nd year he was lights out. Fastball is nothing special but he has an outstanding curve and a pretty good change. He’s pitching pretty well at Frisco right now, and he’s only 22….. I think he deserves a spot on the 35.

Trade for Ian Snell.

by sprite on Jul 10, 2009 11:30 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I can see that

I tend to like young latinos, so Phillips missed the cut.

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by jparks77 on Jul 10, 2009 11:34 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

heh heh

I almost forgot about your love of the young Latin boys that has created so much amusement

by BEW on Jul 10, 2009 11:54 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

More likely to run into Chris Hansen one day: Professor or Zywica?

"andruw jones hits 3 HRS at LA of Anaheim last nite after hitting zero at LA of LA as Dodger in all of '08. thats nuts." SI_JonHeyman

by WestTxAg06 on Jul 10, 2009 2:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks Jason

I was kind of surprised that Fabio Castillo wasn’t higher. The results are finally starting to back up the stuff, and he is still quite young. Do you have him lower than guys like Kirkman and Thompson because you think he’ll never start?

by ramjam36 on Jul 10, 2009 11:00 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Castillo

I think his secondary stuff still needs a considerable amount of work in order to start. I still love his potential, though.

Scouting updates on Twitter

by jparks77 on Jul 10, 2009 11:08 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Totally forgot about Erlin until I read the the comments there at BBTIA.

Supposedly, Beavan isn’t allowed to throw his 2-seamer. Does that effect your eval when judging these AA outings?

Trip is worried that Main’s supposed gift, his fast arm, could actually hinder his command and control, warranting re-working his delivery to improve those. From the stuff I’ve read out of BAK, that’s exactly what they’re doing – attempting to smooth it out some. This seems HUGE to me. In the same way one might fear Purke’s quality lowering when they change his delivery, maybe we’re seeing that exact result now watching Main try to adapt. You feeling any of that?

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by shroomer on Jul 10, 2009 11:01 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Main seems like a different situation than Purke

Purke sounds more like Beavan, like, let’s reboot this whole thing before he even gets started.

Main was already at almost 100 IP entering 2009, and obviously very successful.

Would he need such a dramatic change? Maybe he would – I guess I’ve been attributing his awful performance this year more to the mystery ailment than his delivery.

Curious to hear Parks’ thoughts.

"[Font} doesn't turn 19 until the end of May and his heater can already hit 99 on the gun. That's baseball porn." - Jason Parks

by hightowersmith on Jul 10, 2009 11:15 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not really

I’ve seen Blake’s two seamer before, and its an effective pitch. It’s hard to tell what Beavan has been throwing out there. I understand that he was supposedly throwing only four-seamers, but I’m not really impressed with an 88-90 mph four-seamer.

Trip knows a lot about pitching mechanics, so I definitely pay attention when he voices concern about an arm. Main suffered through serious bouts of mechanical inconsistency this season, but his natural athleticism will allow him to make the necessary adjustments. Adjustments take time, and I’m sure his health issues only exacerbated the process. Let’s hope he comes back with all his stuff.

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by jparks77 on Jul 10, 2009 11:58 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Beavan

I was at last nights game and he was working at 87-89 most of the night but he did hit 91 a couple of times.
He’s giving up a lot of hard hit flys and line drives and that could get really ugly.

"I'm against picketing, but I don't know how to show it." - Mitch Hedberg

by rentz on Jul 10, 2009 2:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

What about the Latin pitcher that is striking out evrybody?

I was a Ranger fan when being a Rangers fan wasn't cool.

by JTodd on Jul 10, 2009 11:17 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

de los Santos

Comes up in the comments on the bbtia post.

"[Font} doesn't turn 19 until the end of May and his heater can already hit 99 on the gun. That's baseball porn." - Jason Parks

by hightowersmith on Jul 10, 2009 11:19 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

You forgot Thomas Diamond

by tyd3311 on Jul 10, 2009 11:20 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

He's toast.

The 2009 Texas Rangers offense: sigh...

by Kinslerhomer on Jul 10, 2009 11:23 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

He has his own special tier

Go Rice Owls!

by JBImaknee on Jul 10, 2009 11:24 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wasn't there a site

that compiled all the pre-season prospect rankings? Anyone have that link?

Purgatory's kind of like the in-betweeny one. You weren't really shit, but you weren't all that great either. Like Tottenham.

by TheJeezus on Jul 10, 2009 11:34 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

NM

Found it.

Purgatory's kind of like the in-betweeny one. You weren't really shit, but you weren't all that great either. Like Tottenham.

by TheJeezus on Jul 10, 2009 11:35 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

What's the run-down on the Melo kid we got for Laird?

by N41D on Jul 10, 2009 11:35 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Very promising and very raw

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by jparks77 on Jul 10, 2009 11:39 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Engel Beltre

I’m not sold on this guy being such a highly valued prospect (unless he’s a trade chip, then he’s the bomb, Toronto.)

Does anyone have a comparison for someone who has:
(a) great tools,
(b) very underwhelming minor league stats over multiple seasons; and then
© a borderline superstar major league career?

With his toolshed, he keeps getting compared to superstars. We’re not hoping he’s the next Greg Golson, we’re hoping he’s the next Griffey, Jr. I don’t know of any Griffey, Jr. types that were this bad in the minors.

[Yes, I know he’s young.]

by 3hacks on Jul 10, 2009 11:47 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs